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Friday, November 19, 2010

Bakrie Says Bumi's London Move Will Secure Coal Miner Financing It Needs

Bringing Bumi Plc to London will get the Indonesian miner the financing it needs to almost double output by 2013 and make it the world’s biggest exporter of power station coal, said Indra Bakrie, who will chair the company. 

“The reason to be in London is also that it’s going to be a lot easier for Bumi to start growing organically,” Bakrie, whose family will control 43 percent of the company, said in an interview yesterday. “In 10 years from now we should be able to be the biggest coal producer. We are not going to stay quiet and do everything only in Indonesia.” 

Being in London will allow the company to refinance its $4.2 billion in debt at lower interest rates, freeing up cash flow to invest in expansion, he said. 

Nathaniel Rothschild’s Vallar Plc this week agreed to invest $3 billion in two Indonesian coal companies, including PT Bumi Resources. After the deal, Vallar will be renamed Bumi Plc and Bakrie Group will be the largest shareholder. Bakrie is the first major Indonesian business to tap the U.K. equity market, home to mining stocks with a total market value of more than $250 billion. 

Bumi will seek to tap surging demand for power station coal in China by expanding output of its mines in Indonesia as well as seeking new operations abroad. China’s demand for imports is estimated to grow as much as sevenfold within four years, according to James Campbell, a Vallar executive who will be head of business development and strategy for Bumi. 

“The big growth story in the coal space has been Indonesia,” Campbell, 60, said in an interview. “The growth of Indonesian coal has gone from zero to hero in the last 10 years.”

Overtook Australia
Indonesia, which overtook Australia as the largest exporter of power-station coal in 2005, is closer to Asia’s largest markets than competitors, making the cost of shipping lower. Global trade will grow 4 percent next year to 651 million tons as Indian imports increase 17 percent and China’s by 9 percent, according to shipbroker Clarkson Plc. 

“What we need to do is to be able to be the biggest supplier of coal in the world and to be able to do that, we have a way now,” Bakrie said in London. “It was a dream only before. Before we met Vallar.” 

Indra and his family control Bakrie Group, a palm oil-to- property empire founded by his father in Sumatra in 1942. Rothschild, whose ancestor helped bankroll Britain’s war against Napoleonic France, will join Bakrie as co-chairman of the board.

Newcastle Prices
Asian benchmark prices at Newcastle, Australia, have gained 22 percent to $113 a ton this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China, the world’s biggest coal user, will import record amounts of the fuel in November and December, according to Commodore Research. 

Under this week’s accord, Bumi Plc will acquire 25 percent of PT Bumi Resources and a 75 percent holding in PT Berau Coal Energy, the country’s fifth-largest miner. Together the companies’ mines will produce about 78 million tons this year. 

Bumi Plc will seek to almost double production from mines in Indonesia to 140 million metric tons of coal by 2013 at an estimated cost of $1.2 billion, excluding infrastructure related expenses, Campbell said. The deal to bring Bumi to London is expected to be completed by April next year. 

“For me, personally it’s just like getting your first bike when you’re a kid,” Bakrie said. “This Bumi Plc will be the coal champion in London. It’s very exciting, very exciting.” Source: Bloomberg

Merrill Lynch Borong 9.800 Lot Saham Bank Mandiri

Merrill Lynch Indonesia memborong 9.799 lot saham Bank Mandiri di harga rata-rata Rp 7.105. Animo beli mulai muncul setelah Menteri Keuangan Agus Martowardojo dapat leluasa merestrukturisasi kredit macetnya dengan melakukan hair cut (pemotongan pinjaman pokok), sama seperti bank-bank swasta, sepanjang sudah mendapat persetujuan pemegang saham.


Selain itu mulai dekatnya proses IPO Garuda akan mendatangkan keuntungan bagi Bank Mandiri, karena dapat menjual kepemilikan sahamnya 10% lebih hasil konversi utang Garuda yang macet menjadi saham. Pelaksanaan IPO Garuda akan dilakukan pada kuartal I-2011 dengan prospektus disampaikan ke otoritas Bursa Efek Indonesia pekan depan.

Selain Merrill Lynch, investor lokal juga tampak memborong saham BMRI melalui broker Kim Eng Sekuritas (7.189 lot), Mandiri Sekuritas (4.078 lot), dan JP Morgan Securities Indonesia (1.023 lot). Asing juga masuk membeli saham Bank Mandiri melalui broker CIMB-GK Securities sebanyak 3 ribu lot.
 
1 ML MERRILL LYNCH INDONESIA 336 9,799 7,105.57 15 3,000 7,066.48 6,799 12,799
2 ZP KIM ENG SEKURITAS 137 7,189 7,108.57 29 1,097 7,128.99 6,092 8,286
3 CC MANDIRI SEKURITAS 113 4,078 7,119.34 70 1,696 7,126.74 2,382 5,774
4 YU CIMB-GK SECURITIES INDONESIA 58 3,000 7,093.73 17 1,765 7,101.16 1,235 4,765
5 BK J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA 50 1,023 7,148.44 16 479 7,087.37 544 1,502
63 AK UBS SECURITIES INDONESIA 62 1,374 7,103.42 22 2,684 7,137.03 -1,310 4,058
64 AI UOB KAY HIAN SECURITIES - - - 88 1,407 7,124.95 -1,407 1,407
65 DP DBS VICKERS SECURITIES INDONESIA - - - 21 2,100 7,150.00 -2,100 2,100

ABN AMRO Borong 18 Ribu Lot Saham Perusahaan Gas Negara

Dinaikkannya target harga Perusahaan Gas Negara menjadi Rp 5.000 oleh analis Citigroup dari Rp 4.150 mendorong minat investor asing untuk membeli saham ini. Aksi beli paling banyak dilakukan oleh broker ABN AMRO Asia Securities sebanyak 18.532 lot.

Aksi beli oleh investor asing juga dilakukan melalui CIMB-GK Securities Indonesia sebanyak 11.392 lot dan Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia 3.643 lot. Sedangkan investor lokal masuk melalui broker Bahana Securities sebanyak 16.234 lot dan Hortus Danavest 7 ribu lot.

Keluarnya riset Citigroup itu sukses mengangkat harga saham PGAS naik Rp 225 menjadi Rp 4.475, tertinggi sejak tahun ini. (lihat berita hari ini: Perusahaan Gas Negara's Target Price IDR 5,000 by Citigroup).


1 HG ABN AMRO ASIA SECURITIES INDONESIA 275 18,532 4,425.90 - - - 18,532 18,532
2 DX BAHANA SECURITIES 367 16,234 4,402.95 10 295 4,375.00 15,939 16,529
3 HD HORTUS DANAVEST TBK. 141 7,000 4,407.14 1 5 4,375.00 6,995 7,005
4 YU CIMB-GK SECURITIES INDONESIA 170 11,392 4,408.54 42 4,598 4,372.26 6,794 15,990
5 CS CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA 117 3,643 4,408.63 30 312 4,449.92 3,331 3,955
88 DP DBS VICKERS SECURITIES INDONESIA 2 4 4,450.00 28 4,750 4,423.37 -4,746 4,754
89 KI CIPTADANA SECURITIES 4 26 4,325.00 69 4,855 4,390.58 -4,829 4,881
90 DH SINARMAS SEKURITAS - - - 55 7,007 4,411.86 -7,007 7,007
91 OD DANAREKSA SEKURITAS 16 448 4,393.25 277 10,754 4,433.70 -10,306 11,202

Mandiri Sekuritas Berhenti Akumulasi Saham BNBR

Setelah mengakumulasi saham Bakrie Brothers hingga mencapai 2,9 juta lot dalam 3 hari, Mandiri Sekuritas hari ini berhenti melakukan proses akumulasi. Broker ini hanya memfasilitasi nasabahnya untuk trading saham BNBR.

Hal itu terlihat dari aksi beli yang difasilitasi oleh Mandiri Sekuritas sebanyak 247.263 lot dan aksi jual 229.720 lot. Hampir seimbang. Demikian pula jumlah investor yang membeli 275 berbanding yang menjual melalui Mandiri Sekuritas 203. (lihat berita kemarin: Dalam 3 hari, Mandiri Sekuritas Borong 2,9 Juta Lot Saham BNBR).


Sebaliknya, Credit Suisse memfasilitasi aksi jual saham BNBR oleh investor lokal sebanyak 275.600 lot. Akibatnya, harga saham BNBR terkoreksi turun Rp 3 menjadi Rp 73.

1 KS KRESNA GRAHA SEKURINDO TBK. 569 633,288 75.51 105 76,058 76.47 557,230 709,346
2 GR PANIN SEKURITAS TBK. 334 238,698 76.06 201 92,005 74.60 146,693 330,703
3 MG SEMESTA INDOVEST 235 265,380 75.99 130 123,758 74.80 141,622 389,138
4 FZ WATERFRONT SECURITIES INDONESIA 302 339,158 76.20 173 204,650 73.18 134,508 543,808
5 KI CIPTADANA SECURITIES 189 205,545 76.47 97 92,454 77.80 113,091 297,999
19 CC MANDIRI SEKURITAS 275 247,263 74.43 203 229,720 75.49 17,543 476,983
101 HD HORTUS DANAVEST TBK. 49 64,450 78.27 171 175,159 77.19 -110,709 239,609
102 MI VICTORIA SEKURITAS 4 2,230 77.85 157 201,510 77.50 -199,280 203,740
103 YJ LAUTANDHANA SECURINDO 515 550,146 75.09 639 774,266 75.21 -224,120 1,324,412
104 CS CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA 13 50,000 77.00 127 275,600 76.85 -225,600 325,600

Macquarie Borong 77 Ribu Lot Saham BUMI

Macquarie Securities memborong 77.083 lot saham Bumi Resources (BUMI). Macquarie tercatat baru pertama kali memborong saham BUMI sejak 2 pekan terakhir.

Sedangkan Credit Suisse yang pada Jumat pekan lalu menjual 35.740 lot, hari ini tampak sudah kehabisan amunisi dan tidak memiliki saham BUMI lagi. Akibatnya, broker ini kembali memborong 71.340 lot.


Kim Eng Sekuritas kembali melanjutkan pembelian sebanyak 63.244 lot, setelah kemarin memborong 152 ribu lot saham BUMI. CLSA Indonesia memborong 38.409 lot, setelah kemarin membeli 26.316 lot.


Demikian pula dengan UBS Securities dan Deutsche Securities terus memborong saham BUMI sejak dua pekan lalu. Hari ini UBS Securities memborong 41.233 lot dan Deutsche Securities 23 ribu lot.


Kemarin, UBS tercatat memborong 93.222 lot dan Deutsche 35.702 lot. Masih tingginya animo beli terhadap saham BUMI mendorong harga saham ini naik Rp 50 menjadi Rp 2.850 setelah sempat menyentuh Rp 2.875 dan Rp 2.900 dengan volume 274.380 lot dan 123.657 lot. Sedangkan di harga 2.925 mencapai 5.134 lot.

1 RX MACQUARIE SECURITIES INDONESIA 449 77,083 2,881.08 66 828 2,858.91 76,255 77,911
2 CS CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA 437 71,340 2,868.66 66 14,140 2,843.33 57,200 85,480
3 ZP KIM ENG SEKURITAS 469 63,244 3,045.96 198 22,107 3,406.73 41,137 85,351
4 KZ CLSA INDONESIA 366 38,409 2,850.89 3 970 2,435.57 37,439 39,379
5 AK UBS SECURITIES INDONESIA 274 41,233 2,869.85 26 20,000 2,871.25 21,233 61,233
6 DB DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA 115 23,000 2,868.48 20 8,122 2,845.87 14,878 31,122
106 PD INDO PREMIER SECURITIES 439 8,960 2,876.34 550 29,620 2,870.09 -20,660 38,580
107 YU CIMB-GK SECURITIES INDONESIA 258 32,968 2,867.00 523 66,347 2,864.54 -33,379 99,315
108 BK J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA 18 2,953 2,867.21 249 42,000 2,871.43 -39,047 44,953

Dalam 2 Hari, Merrill Lynch Borong 613.800 Lot Saham Berau Energy

Merrill Lynch terus memborong saham Berau Energy (BRAU) di harga Rp 520. Jumlah saham yang dibeli mencapai 452.800 lot. Kemarin, Merrill Lynch juga tercatat membeli sebanyak 161 ribu lot. Dengan demikian, dalam 2 hari, broker ini telah membeli 613.800 lot saham BRAU. (lihat berita sebelumnya: Merrill Lynch Borong 161 Ribu Lot Saham Berau Energy).


Belum diketahui motif pembelian ini mengingat potensi keuntungan untuk tender offer hanya Rp 20 (harga tender offer Rp 540). Keanehan lainnya adalah pemborong saham BRAU tidak dilakukan oleh investor ritel dan cenderung investor institusi yang memiliki banyak dana setelah melihat pembelian hanya dilakukan segelintir investor.


Lihat saja Hortus Danavest yang memfasilitasi 31 investor lokal untuk memborong 55.550 lot saham BRAU. JP Morgan memfasilitasi investor asing berjumlah 37 untuk membeli 36.506 lot.


Hal yang sama juga terlihat dilakukan CLSA Indonesia yang memfasilitasi 30 investor lokalnya untuk memborong 35.143 lot, Trimegah 49 investor lokal sebanyak 32.407 lot, dan Recapital 46 investor lokal sebanyak 57.541 lot.


Harga saham BRAU naik Rp 10 menjadi Rp 530.
 
1 ML MERRILL LYNCH INDONESIA 401 452,800 520.00 - - - 452,800 452,800
2 HD HORTUS DANAVEST TBK. 31 55,550 520.04 7 10,509 520.00 45,041 66,059
3 BK J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA 37 36,506 520.00 - - - 36,506 36,506
4 KZ CLSA INDONESIA 30 35,143 527.11 - - - 35,143 35,143
5 LG TRIMEGAH SECURITIES TBK. 49 32,407 520.38 22 5,037 525.97 27,370 37,444
6 LK RECAPITAL SECURITIES 46 57,541 520.00 60 33,808 519.75 23,733 91,349
90 KS KRESNA GRAHA SEKURINDO TBK. 14 3,491 520.01 42 36,055 520.00 -32,564 39,546
91 HP HENAN PUTIHRAI 4 134 520.30 88 50,100 520.00 -49,966 50,234
92 CS CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA - - - 100 144,171 520.00 -144,171 144,171
93 YU CIMB-GK SECURITIES INDONESIA 24 38,255 521.02 177 205,631 520.00 -167,376 243,886

Indonesia Stocks May Rise 20% by End-2011 on Earnings, Credit Suisse Says

Indonesian stocks may rise 20 percent by the end of 2011 as increased earnings, a potential upgrade in the country’s debt rating and a Cabinet reshuffle boost investor confidence, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. 

The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index may advance to 4,400 next year, Credit Suisse analyst Arief Wana said in a report today. He advised investors to focus on “underperformers and valuations,” citing PT Indosat and PT Adaro Energy. The index climbed 0.1 percent to 3,677.90 yesterday. 

“Structural improvement in return on equity is one of our main reasons,” Wana said. Better profit margins and “asset turnover” will remain the “key drivers” boosting the return on equity of shares on the benchmark index by 150 basis points next year, he said, without giving the target rate of return. 

The stock index has risen 45 percent this year, the best performer among Asia’s 10 biggest markets. Shares climbed as the nation’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 6.5 percent this year, supporting domestic consumption that accounts for about two-thirds of the economy. The International Monetary Fund forecasts economic growth to accelerate to 6 percent this year from 4.5 percent in 2009. 

Standard & Poor’s raised Indonesia’s sovereign credit rating to a 12-year high of BB from BB- on March 12, with a positive outlook. S&P and Moody’s Investors Service both rank Indonesia two levels below investment grade, while Fitch Ratings on Jan. 25 increased it to one step below investment. Moody’s raised in June Indonesia’s credit rating outlook to positive. 

‘May Falter’
The stock market rally may falter this year as foreign purchases of Indonesian equities slow, Budi Hikmat, a director at PT Bahana TCW Investment Management, which manages about $1.8 billion, said Nov. 3, recommending investors “tone down expectations on future gains.” 

Near-zero interest rates in the U.S. and Japan spurred funds to seek higher returns in emerging markets, helping to boost Indonesian stocks. Foreign net purchases of Indonesian shares jumped to 6 trillion rupiah ($672 million) in September, the biggest monthly net purchase this year, before dropping to 322 billion rupiah in October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Indosat, Indonesia’s second-largest telephone company has risen 22 percent this year, underperforming the benchmark index’s 45 percent gain. Adaro, the nation’s second-largest coal producer, has advanced 42 percent this year. 

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono hasn’t discussed any plans for a Cabinet reshuffle with his Democrat party, state news agency Antara reported on its website Oct. 31, citing Saan Mustofa, deputy secretary general at the party’s board of executives. Source: Bloomberg

Perusahaan Gas Negara's Target Price IDR 5,000 by Citigroup

Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) had its share-estimate raised to 5,000 rupiah from 4,150 rupiah by Citigroup Inc analyst Kim Kwie Sjamsudin, who said its “market underperformance” was a “good opportunity to accumulate the stock.” Gas Negara rating was kept “buy” at Citigroup.

Riset Bumi Resources oleh Samuel Sekuritas

Riset Bumi Resources oleh Samuel Sekuritas. Target harga Rp 3.250/saham. Samuel Sekuritas memandang positif akuisisi 25% saham BUMI oleh Vallar yang akan memberikan sentimen positif terhadap saham BUMI dan BNBR.

Dengan akses pendanaan yang semakin besar berkat tercatatnya saham Vallar Plc (segera ganti nama menjadi BUMI Plc) di Bursa London, BUMI Resources akan memiliki sumber pendanaan untuk membiayai kembali utang-utangnya dengan bunga lebih rendah.
 
Riset Bumi Resources Oleh Samuel Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Riset Bakrie Telecom oleh Indo Premier Sekuritas

Riset Bakrie Telecom oleh Indo Premier Sekuritas. Broker ini mengapresiasi kinerja BTEL kuartal III-2010 yang mampu mencetak pertumbuhan. Berdasarkan perhitungan dengan menggunakan DCF, Indo Premier memproyeksikan target harga BTEL Rp 281/saham.
 
Riset Bakrie Telecom Oleh Indo Premier Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Riset Harum Energy oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas

Riset Harum Energy oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas. Target harga Rp 9.300/saham dengan rekomendasi beli dari harga saat ini Rp 6.850. Laba bersih pada kuartal III-2010 mencapai Rp 569 miliar, hampir empat kali lipat dari posisi kuartal I-2010 sebesar Rp 134 miliar.


Namun secara year on year, pertumbuhan laba September 2009-September 2010 sebesar 0,2% karena penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS yang ekstrim. Jika dilihat dalam mata uang dolar AS, perolehan laba bersih perseroan sebetulnya naik 17%.


Ke depannya, jika rupiah stabil, pertumbuhan laba bersih HRUM pada 2011 diproyeksikan melonjak 104%.
 
Riset Harum Energy Oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   
Riset Bank Danamon oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas. Target harga Rp 6.000/saham. Berdasarkan perhitungan Ciptadana, harga wajar Bank Danamon adalah Rp 6.000/saham dengan ROE 22%.
 
Riset Bank Danamon Oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 19 November 2010

Untuk Jumat, 19 November 2010, enam sekuritas ternama memberikan ulasan mengenai pergerakan bursa yang akan terjadi, termasuk saham-saham pilihan yang patut dicermatin. Berikut ulasan detailnya.

1. Trimegah Securities
IHSG berhasil ditutup menguat 0,1% pada Kamis (18/11), meskipun memiliki pergerakan mixed to negative dan kembali gagal penetrasi level 238,2% fibonacci projection sebagai resistance kuatnya. Namun dengan posisi asing yang mulai net buy, IHSG akan berpeluang breakout ke resistance tersebut. Hal ini juga didukung oleh indikator stochastic yang berpotensi membentuk golden cross di dekat area oversold-nya. IHSG hari ini akan bergerak pada kisaran 3.652-3.690. Saham pilihan BDMN, INDY, dan JSMR.

2. Kresna Securities
IHSG diperkirakan masih cenderung sideways, mengingat sentimen global yang masih cenderung negatif. Hari ini, IHSG diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.635-3.720. Saham pilihan PGAS dan TINS.

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani
IHSG kemarin berfluktuasi karena sempat minus 33 poin dan akhirnya ditutup plus 3,877 poin ke level 3.677,90. Penguatannya ditopang kenaikan saham Grup Bakrie, tambang, dan infrastruktur, di tengah pelemahan saham perkebunan, dan aneka industri. IHSG akhirnya mengikuti kenaikan indeks bursa regional karena optimistis dengan rencana bailout utang Irlandia, euforia tukar guling BUMI-BRAU-Vallar, dan harga komoditas turun. Broker asing net buy Rp 69 miliar. IHSG hari ini mixed cenderung menguat pada kisaran 3.667-3.699. Buy BBRI, PTBA, UNVR, serta hold TLKM.


4. E-Trading Securities
Indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.647-3.714 pada perdagangan hari ini. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan investor antara lain BUMI, BNBR, ELTY, dan INDY. Pada perdagangan kemarin, IHSG ditopang oleh pergerakan saham Grup Bakrie, menyusul berita soal tukar guling saham (equity swap) BUMI dan BRAU dengan saham Vallar Plc. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp130 miliar kemarin.

5. Sinarmas Sekuritas
Pada hari ini, peluang IHSG untuk menguat cukup terbuka, dengan rentang gerak indeks di kisaran 3.655-3.700. Saham yang dapat dicermati antara lain UNSP, PTBA, ELTY, dan KRAS. Kemarin, indeks naik terbatas, disebabkan oleh kekhawatiran pemodal asing terhadap kajian Badan Kebijakan Fiskal Kementerian Keuangan tentang penerapan pajak bagi aliran modal asing.

6. Panin Sekuritas
IHSG diprediksi bergerak fluktuatif pada hari ini, dengan kecenderungan menguat. Rentang gerak indeks di kisaran 3.649-3.698. Saham emiten perbankan dan pertambangan diperkirakan menjadi pilihan untuk perdagangan hari ini. Adapun, indeks kemarin ditutup di area positif, menyusul melesatnya bursa regional di sesi kedua perdagangan. Pergerakan indeks masih diwarnai aksi beli terhadap saham Grup Bakrie, menyusul konsolidasi Bakrie-Rothschild.