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Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Bank Indonesia Will Use Dollars to Buy Government Bonds

Bank Indonesia will use dollars to buy rupiah government bonds in order to manage cash reserves and maintain the stability of the currency, it announced today. 

The central bank will buy the debt at special auctions, said Hendar, Bank Indonesia’s director of monetary policy, who goes by only one name. 

“We’ll hold auctions if the rupiah depreciates because of investors selling government bonds,” he said. “With this tool, the central bank can manage the volatility of the currency, and at the same time it will add to Bank Indonesia’s stock of government bonds.” 

Indonesia’s growth outlook and relatively high yields are luring funds from developed nations with near-zero interest rates, creating volatility in the rupiah. Another round of so- called quantitative easing, increasing the amount of U.S. funds available to be invested abroad, looks more likely after the Federal Reserve said yesterday it was prepared to employ additional tools to spur the world’s largest economy. 

The rupiah strengthened 0.6 percent to 8,533 per dollar as of 4:43 p.m. in Jakarta and has advanced 5.2 percent this year. Bank Indonesia left borrowing cost unchanged at 6.75 percent yesterday. It last raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point, in February. Consumer prices rose 4.61 percent in July from a year earlier, easing from a 5.54 percent gain in June. Source: Bloomberg

Good time now to buy Indonesian stocks: Schroders

An increasingly uncertain economic outlook in the United States and Europe will have relatively little effect on Indonesia's robust fundamentals, instead offering investors a good opportunity to buy equities in Southeast Asia's largest economy, a Schroders fund manager said.

Indonesia's main stock market index , Southeast Asia's best performing equity market, has gained around 4 percent this year.

In line with other volatile equity markets, however, Jakarta stocks fell more than 6 percent on Tuesday, as investors worried about the debt crises in the United States and Europe.

"The Indonesian economy should be relatively less impacted but the stock market should be very much correlated with the volatility of the global stock markets," Kiekie Boenawan, head of investment at Schroder Investment Management Indonesia (SIMI), said in an email late on Tuesday.

"It should present a good opportunity to accumulate Indonesian equities as fundamentals are not impacted as much -- relative to other developed economies."

Asian stocks clawed back some lost ground on Wednesday, following a rebound in U.S. shares, after the Federal Reserve made an unprecedented pledge to keep interest rates near zero for at least two years, stemming a global equity rout for the time being.

But economic growth in the archipelago of 17,000 islands is expected to be 6.6 percent this year, and growing slightly higher in 2012.

"The impact on the Indonesian economy will be relatively less due to Indonesia's low exposure to exports and also due to the low leverage of the economy," added Boenawan. "Most companies are experiencing net cash or very little debt.

"Assuming a 6 percent real growth and an average of 5 percent inflation, we could reasonably expect the stock market to deliver around 13 percent growth in return and dividends next year from this level."

TOP HOLDINGS The Jakarta-based fund company was established in 1991. At the end of July, SIMI had $6.9 billion under management, with around 75-80 percent invested in equities and the remaining in fixed income assets.

Investment decisions in each SIMI fund is based upon contributions and ideas from the investment team of analysts and portfolio managers.

Astra International , Indonesia's biggest listed firm and main vehicle distributor, Bank Mandiri and Bumi Resources are among the main holdings of its equity funds, according to data on its website.

Property stocks are a top pick for Schroders' Indonesian funds, due to the rising levels of middle-income earners and low interest rates, Boenawan said.

Indonesia's central bank held its benchmark overnight policy rate at 6.75 percent on Tuesday for a sixth straight month after July inflation slowed to a 14-month low.

"Property sectors have also been experiencing a surge in demand and prices mainly on the back of rising middle income affluence, low interest rate, and rising direct investments in Indonesia," Boenawan said.

Indonesia expanded at a robust 6.5 percent on year in the second quarter of 2011, at a time when the outlook for the global economy is increasingly uncertain.

"Despite the rising demand and prices in the real physical market, the prices of the property stocks have yet to fully reflect its fundamentals," he added.

Least favoured Indonesian equities for Schroders include telecommunication firms due to a crowded business space, and cement companies.

"For telecommunication, the industry is crowded and has been experiencing fierce price competition since the last 3 years," Boenawan said.

"For cements, although demand is quite robust especially given the rising property prices, the industry has not been able to raise prices further without inviting competition from imported clinkers." Source: Economic Times

Hankook in bidding for Indonesia’s P.T. Multistrada

Hankook Tire Co. Ltd., which recently broke ground on a $353 million tire plant in Indonesia, is among the bidders to buy Indonesia’s P.T. Multistrada Arah Sarana Tbk., whose flag brands are Achilles, Corsa and Strada.

Hankook confirmed it’s involved in the bidding process for Bekasi, Indonesia-based P.T. Multistrada, which reported $220 million in sales in fiscal 2010 and $117 million through the first six months of 2011. The firm generates about three-fourths of its revenue from exports.

News reports from Indonesia also identify TPG Capital L.P.—which last year acquired Huntersville, N.C.-based American Tire Distributors Holdings Inc.—and Japan’s Yokohama Tire & Rubber Co. Ltd. as companies engaged in the bidding process.

P.T. Multistrada has operated under that name since 2004, when investors took over P.T. Oroban Perkasa and undertook a three-year, $100 million modernization of the plant in Bekasi. The firm lists annual capacities of 8.3 million consumer and 4.7 million motorcycle tires.

Multistrada also produces private label tires for a number of U.S. distributors.
Hankook did not comment on its reasons for bidding on Multistrada. The plant that Seoul, South Korea-based Hankook is building in Bekasi is designed to be an export base for the North America and Middle East markets, as well as a regional business hub for emerging Asian markets.

During the first phase of development, Hankook said it anticipates initial capacity of approximately 6 million tires per year, with more than half of that capacity dedicated to the U.S. market. Source: Tire Business

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, 9 Agustus 2011

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, Selasa 9 Agustus 2011.
Kode saham                       Volume                   Jual                      Beli
AALI 2,399,000 441,000 642,000
ABDA 790,000 0 250,000
ACES 89,000 10,500 89,000
ADMG 61,332,500 215,000 1,536,500
AISA 9,964,500 0 2,377,500
AKRA 36,511,000 2,342,500 4,398,500
AMAG 13,891,500 0 1,000,000
ASGR 13,247,000 30,000 951,000
BBKP 49,072,000 798,000 4,151,000
BBTN 16,877,000 143,000 3,593,000
BHIT 123,168,500 502,000 7,578,000
BKSL 393,797,000 1,372,000 23,250,000
BLTA 27,083,500 179,000 491,500
BMTR 10,518,000 367,000 5,342,500
BPFI 231,000 0 200,000
BRAU 17,102,000 0 6,516,500
BRMS 12,203,500 0 3,090,500
BUDI 7,033,000 0 3,573,000
BWPT 16,438,500 137,000 8,691,000
BYAN 155,500 76,500 153,000
CFIN 27,152,000 700,000 6,399,500
CPIN 71,861,500 4,735,000 6,587,000
DAVO 16,223,000 0 3,180,000
DEWA 620,481,500 2,582,500 11,188,000
EMDE 8,220,500 1,180,000 1,740,500
EMTK 165,000 0 157,500
ETWA 7,821,500 50,000 1,020,000
GZCO 1,638,500 0 1,011,500
IGAR 7,250,000 0 4,219,000
IMAS 3,528,500 675,500 1,615,000
INCO 15,544,500 3,585,500 6,643,000
INDY 12,712,500 2,250,500 2,542,500
JAWA 7,113,000 10,000 300,000
JPFA 5,528,000 66,000 357,500
JPRS 8,240,500 50,000 100,000
JSMR 15,548,000 826,500 977,500
JTPE 8,949,500 0 12,500
KIAS 2,871,500 0 17,500
KKGI 409,500 0 60,000
LPCK 61,011,500 488,000 506,500
LSIP 18,314,500 4,753,500 11,280,000
LTLS 1,828,000 0 633,000
MAIN 12,839,500 55,000 1,343,000
MDRN 403,000 182,000 348,500
MFIN 351,000 0 219,500
MICE 8,629,000 0 100,000
MITI 12,985,500 0 3,500,000
MLIA 208,000 0 124,500
MLPL 41,455,000 40,500 1,000,000
MNCN 13,115,000 1,095,500 3,730,000
MTLA 7,404,000 0 4,406,000
PGAS 131,774,500 17,221,500 19,573,000
PNIN 3,471,500 0 275,000
PNLF 17,335,500 1,280,000 4,450,000
PTPP 6,071,500 133,000 753,500
PWON 12,854,000 130,000 1,598,000
RDTX 96,500 0 96,500
ROTI 162,500 0 70,500
SCMA 295,500 50,500 257,500
SGRO 3,877,000 42,000 576,500
SIMP 49,004,500 9,090,000 11,394,000
SIPD 220,219,500 0 7,000,000
SMCB 7,321,000 598,000 1,226,000
SMRA 3,456,500 1,276,500 1,312,000
TBLA 41,327,500 14,000 541,500
TOTL 1,953,500 5,000 329,000
TRUB 204,185,000 0 500,000
TURI 6,795,500 0 1,628,000
UNSP 203,229,500 606,000 8,708,500
WICO 1,181,000 0 50,000
WIKA 5,397,000 544,000 933,500

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 10 Agustus 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 10 Agustus 2011.
BUY:  PGAS, ASII, BBRI, ADRO
  • Proses upward retracement IHSG dari keadaan jenuh jual (oversold) untuk menguji resistance atas di moving average 5 harian (3.960) sudah dimulai rekomen melirik emiten big cap yang masih mempunyai gap atas yang belum tertutup.
  • IHSG close (09-08) 3.767.641(-82.768/-2.15%) (Val.Rp.3.6T)
  • Support: 3.730-3.650-3.550, Resistance: 3.925-4.060
Stock picks:
1.     Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) (BUY) (Target Rp 3.550) (Close 09/08 Rp 3.225)
  • Diperkirakan fair value fundamental saham in seharusnya di atas Rp 3.500 dan secara technical memang ada price gap antara Rp 3.525-3.600 yang belum tertutup sehingga membuka potensi untuk kenaikan harga.
  • Entry (1) Rp 3.200, Entry (2) Rp 3.050, Cut loss point: Rp 2.975.
 
2.    Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 69.500) (Close 09/08: Rp 64.100)
  • Outlook penjualan mobil dan suku bunga yang masih kondusif membuat investor asing melirik saham dengan kapitalisasi terberar di IHSG yang masih belum menutup price gap atas di Rp 69.500 sehingga masih ada potensi upside.
  • Entry (1) Rp 63.800, Entry (2) Rp 62.700, Cut loss point: Rp 61.550.
 
3.    Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.950) (Close 09/08 Rp 6.400)
  • Sektor perbankan memiliki kapitalisasi terbesar di IHSG (33%) sehingga bisa dipastikan akan memimpin momentum market dalam technical rebound.
  • Outlook suku bunga dan kepercayaan konsumen masih optimis didukung oleh rupiah stabil dan tidak terpengaruhnya sector mikro UKM terhadap faktor luar.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 6.300, Entry (2) Rp 6.100, Cut loss point: Rp 5.900
 
4.   Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.550) (Close 09/08 Rp 2.250).
  • Sektor pertambangan batubara (coal) memiliki 20% dari kapitalisasi IHSG, dimana emiten dengan kapitalisasi terbesar adalah ADRO, yang secara teknikal memang berpeluang untuk menutup price gap atas di Rp 2.550 dalam jangka waktu dekat ini.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 2.250, Entry (2) Rp 2.200, Cut loss point: Rp 2.100
 

Dibuat oleh:
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)