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Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Rothschild coal venture lists fraud among IPO risks

* New Vallar parent company Bumi to list June 28
* Lists risks including bribery, tax official's allegations
* Retains consultant to review Bumi Resources procedures 


Bumi Plc, the renamed venture founded by Nat Rothschild and majority-owned by Indonesia's Bakrie family, has detailed fraud and allegations of graft among risks to investors eyeing its shares when they list next week. 

Bumi has published its prospectus ahead of a listing of the company's shares on the premium segment of London's official list, the first step in the path to a spot in the FTSE index . 

"It may not be possible for the group to detect or prevent evey instance of fraud, bribery and corruption in every jurisdiction," Bumi said. 

Prospectuses for companies operating in some of the world's more difficult geographies often detail fraud risk. 

However, the involvement of the politically connected Bakrie family has generated increased interest in Bumi's listing documents, not least because of the perceived lack of disclosure among Bakrie-linked companies. 

The potential catapulting into the FTSE of one of Indonesia's best-known political families, delays to the listing and the complexity of the deal have added to pressure on the company. 

So too have concerns surrounding other miners majority-owned by emerging markets investors, particularly Kazakh miner ENRC which has been damaged by a boardroom split.
Bumi, which disclosed risks to investors over 20 pages, said Indonesia, where its activites are focused, ranks 110 out of 178 countries in Transparency International's 2010 Corruption Perceptions Index. 

It also highlighted allegations made by an Indonesian tax official at the centre of a high-profile corruption trial, Gayus Tambunan, who said subsidiaries Bumi Resources, KPC and Arutmin paid him $3 million to settle tax disputes. 

Tambunan was convicted in January for bribery and abuse of power and faces a new trial over fake passports. 

Bumi said Indonesia police had found insufficient evidence to file charges against Bumi Resources, and internal investigations found the allegations "groundless". 

But the company has retained a third-party consultant to review procedures for cash payments and said that corruption allegations "even if untrue, could harm the group's reputation". 

"They are being ultra-cautious," said one source familiar with the listing process, referring to anti-corruption policies.

PREPARING FOR FTSE
Bumi Plc shares, which will begin trading on June 28, replace existing shares in Vallar , Rothschild's original venture for investment in the mining sector. 

The listing of Bumi is the final step in Vallar's major transformation, which began last year with the Bakrie Goup and Rothschild joining forces for Vallar to take a 25 percent stake in coal miner Bumi Resources and a 75 percent stake in Berau Coal Energy. 

Bumi Plc has since said it aims to increase its stake in miner Bumi Resources, Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, to up to 50 percent. 

It will also own a 75 percent stake in Bumi Resources Minerals after completion of a shake-up announced last week. BRM's main asset is an 18 percent economic interest in Newmont Nusa Tenggara, the company that owns the Batu Hijau mine.

Rothschild, who will be co-chairman of Bumi alongside Indra Bakrie, will own 5.6 percent of Bumi voting capital after the listing. James Campbell, former director of Anglo American and co-founder of Vallar, will have 0.2 percent.

Local private equity tycoon Rosan Roeslani will own 17.4 percent and is joined on the register by Abu Dhabi Investment Council, which will own a 5.5 percent stake.
Indra Bakrie is the younger brother of tycoon Aburizal Bakrie, chairman of Golkar, part of Indonesia's ruling coalition.

Aburizal Bakrie is not involved in the day-to-day running of the family's financial ventures, which were pulled out from under heavy debts by the Rothschild deal.
The Bakrie family's voting rights will be frozen at 29.9 percent, despite a total holding of 55 percent. Source: Reuters

Bumi Resources sees Q2 coal sale price up 26 pct y/y

Bumi Resources , Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, said on Tuesday that its average coal sales price in the second quarter could reach $90 per tonne, or 26 percent higher than the same period a year ago.

This would be nearly 3 percent higher than first quarter prices.

Dileep Srivastava, a Bumi director, told Reuters that the company will sell around 15 to 15.5 million tonnes of coal in the second quarter despite continuing wet weather in Indonesia's Kalimantan. Source: Reuters

Anglo American Settles Coking Coal Contracts With Mills in Asia, UBS Says

Asian steelmakers agreed to pay Anglo American Plc (AAL) $315 a metric ton for hard coking coal in the September quarter after first rejecting the offer as too high, according to UBS AG. 

“This sudden deal reflects new concern over supply,” UBS analysts led by Sydney-based Tom Price said in a note yesterday, citing strike action at mines operated by BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance. UBS didn’t say where it got the information. Jacqui Strambi, a spokeswoman for Anglo, didn’t immediately return a voicemail left at her office. 

Steelmaking-coal prices rose 47 percent to a record $330 a ton for three-month contracts starting April 1 after heavy rain and flooding in Australia shut mines and curbed output from the world’s biggest exporter of the commodity. Rio Tinto Group, Xstrata Plc and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) were among companies that notified customers they would miss deliveries after the floods. 

Stoppages at BHP’s mines in Queensland took place across three days, commencing at the Saraji and Norwich Park mines on June 14, then the Gregory, Crinum and Blackwater mines on June 15 and the Goonyella Riverside and Peak Downs mines June 18. 

Australia is the biggest shipper of coking coal and the second-largest exporter of thermal coal for power stations, after Indonesia. Source: Bloomberg

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, 20 Juni 2011

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, Senin 20 Juni 2011.
Kode saham                        Volume                     Jual                     Beli
AALI 449.500 2.000 377.000
ADMG 17.598.500 10.000 60.000
ADRO 15.524.500 5.387.500 9.856.000
AISA 5.684.500 0 118.000
AKRA 7.100.000 29.500 3.075.000
ANTM 16.947.500 3.822.000 7.099.500
ARNA 428.500 0 200.000
ASGR 649.500 0 65.500
BBCA 9.347.000 4.158.000 5.808.500
BBKP 9.822.000 313.000 3.731.000
BBLD 395.000 0 125.000
BBRI 16.074.500 2.446.500 3.891.000
BBTN 3.369.500 75.500 2.201.500
BHIT 80.022.500 16.740.500 20.549.000
BJBR 10.064.000 355.500 5.174.500
BMRI 15.724.500 5.739.500 11.395.500
BMTR 3.957.500 35.500 2.057.500
BNBR 218.127.000 0 3.813.000
BNII 1.388.000 113.500 510.000
BORN 32.764.500 13.187.500 3.939.000
BRAU 9.632.000 0 3.568.500
BSDE 5.718.000 0 965.500
BTEL 10.971.500 0 1.963.000
BWPT 3.439.000 15.000 780.500
CPIN 7.433.500 1.108.500 5.261.500
CTRP 1.356.000 0 200.000
DEWA 217.678.500 0 150.000
ELTY 338.566.000 7.280.500 10.627.500
EMTK 258.500 0 176.000
ENRG 235.261.500 2.015.000 21.400.500
EXCL 1.738.500 67.500 998.500
FASW 690.500 0 62.500
GGRM 1.037.500 430.000 974.500
HEXA 48.000 0 26.500
ICBP 3.227.500 565.000 2.148.500
INCO 10.659.500 1.066.500 2.628.500
INDF 4.883.000 180.000 1.512.500
INDS 706.000 0 50.000
IPOL 45.724.500 852.500 2.750.000
ISAT 1.534.000 5.500 1.189.000
JPFA 927.000 0 100.500
KIJA 8.453.000 1.811.500 3.255.500
KKGI 310.500 40.000 150.000
KLBF 7.242.500 518.000 715.000
KRAS 11.553.000 0 262.500
LPKR 69.420.500 8.122.000 22.226.000
MASA 20.515.000 3.853.000 4.897.000
MDRN 147.500 15.000 128.000
MIDI 915.500 0 100.000
MLPL 12.505.500 0 150.000
MNCN 15.314.000 8.250.000 9.480.000
PNLF 10.021.500 3.160.500 5.976.000
PTPP 2.057.000 0 2.000.000
PWON 10.613.000 0 324.500
SGRO 1.767.500 527.000 1.126.000
SIMP 8.089.000 3.239.000 5.975.500
SIPD 12.141.500 0 725.000
SMCB 1.259.500 9.000 178.000
SMGR 10.622.500 283.500 7.238.000
SMRA 720.000 405.500 559.000
SSIA 4.051.000 0 813.500
TBIG 2.122.000 200.000 1.712.000
TBLA 3.370.000 0 557.500
TINS 4.266.500 80.500 677.000
UNSP 57.817.500 337.500 3.336.000
UNTR 2.983.500 575.500 2.113.500
UNVR 658.500 144.000 360.500
VOKS 28.500 0 26.000

StanChart and Bank Mega considers bid for Bank Muamalat- sources

* StanChart continuing with due diligence - source

* Qatart Islamic Bank, Bank Mega among second-round bidders - sources 

Standard Chartered Plc is planning to bid for a controlling stake in Indonesia's PT Bank Muamalat alone as StanChart's affiliate has dropped out of the race, sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Monday. 

Qatar Islamic Bank and Bank Mega TBK were among suitors that submitted second-round bids ahead of last week's deadline, sources added. 

Standard Chartered's decision to pursue a nearly $300 million deal by itself underscores its desire to capture a bigger share of the Islamic banking business in the world's most populous Muslim nation. Indonesia, Southeast Asia's biggest economy, is a huge and untapped market for Islamic banking, which local and international investors are trying to capture. 

Bank Danamon , controlled by Singapore state investor Temasek , and TPG-backed Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional also plan to expand their sharia business. 

However, some bankers were surprised by Standard Chartered's decision to make a move on its own since the emerging market focused lender already has a presence in sharia banking through its affiliate PT Bank Permata. 

It was unclear if Standard Chartered will merge Muamalat with Permata's existing sharia banking, if it wins the auction. 

Top shareholders of PT Bank Muamalat, Indonesia's second-biggest sharia lender, were planning to sell an at least 51 percent stake in the unlisted bank for about $300 million, sources previously told Reuters. Morgan Stanley is running the auction. 

Standard Chartered was continuing with due diligence and was likely to submit a bid soon, one of the sources said. PT Bank Permata, 45 percent owned by Standard Chartered, and Bank Mandiri had decided not to proceed with bidding, sources with direct knowledge told Reuters. 

Standard Chartered and Indonesia's Para Group, which owns Bank Mega, declined to comment. A QIB executive declined to comment. Morgan Stanley was not available for comment. 

Muamalat, which has about 21.4 trillion rupiah ($2.5 billion) in total assets, could be valued between $750 million and $1 billion, one source previously told Reuters. A deal is likely to settle at three to four times its book value of $250 million, the source added. 

Muamalat's top three shareholders trying to sell the stake are -- Islamic Development Bank, Boubyan Bank Kuwait , and Saudi Arabia's Atwill Holdings Ltd. These shareholders collectively control 75.7 percent of the lender, according to its website. 

QIB was seen as the front-runner to win the auction, but Standard Chartered's entry into the race could change that. Some Middle Eastern banks have expanded into Indonesia to grow their Islamic banking. Last year, Qatar National Bank bought an 82 percent stake in small local lender Bank Kesawan for $82 million. Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 21 Juni 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Selasa, 21 Juni 2011.
BUY: (BUMI, BBRI, ASII, PGAS)

  • Walaupun IHSG terkoreksi kembali akibat efek regional, namun masih bisa bertahan diatas  low minggu lalu (3.710) sehingga terlihat ada upaya perlawanan terhadap down-trend menjadi keadaan sideways dengan potensi upward retracement 

  • IHSG close (20-06) 3.729.30(+6.82/+0.19%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

  • Support: 3.710-3.650, Resistance: 3,830-3.890

 

Stock picks:

1.     Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY) (Target Rp 6.450) (Close 20/06 Rp 6.250)

  • Walaupun sempat terkoreksi, namun pattern higher low dari bulan Mei masih tetap utuh dan penutupan di atas low Jumat lalu (Rp 6.150) menandakan bahwa kenaikan akan terjadi untuk menguji resistance atas di upper end triangle symetris (Rp 6.450)

  • Entry (1) Rp 6.250, Entry (2) Rp 6.100, Cut loss point: Rp 5.800

 

2.    Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 59.700) (Close 20/06 Rp 58.300)

  • Pasca 3 minggu tutup berturut-turut di closing negative pada penutupan Jumat (weekly) minggu lalu akhirnya ASII dapat tutup weekly (Jumat closing) positif sehingga pattern high low masih utuh.

  • Bila ASII dapat mempertahankan daerah di atas Rp 57.500 maka scenario retracement ke resistance atas di Rp 59.100-59.700 masih memungkinkan.

  • Entry: (1) Rp 58.150, Entry (2) Rp 57.500, Cut loss point: Rp 57.100

 

3.   Bumi Resources (BUMI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.150) (Close 20/06 Rp 2.175)

  • Koreksi akibat penundaan release laporan keuangan Q1 2011 kelihatannya sudah berlebihan (koreksi selama sepekan lebih dari 10%) sehingga potensi upward retracement untuk menguji resistance atas kemungkinan besar akan terjadi sebelum downside dapat terlaksana kembali.

  • Entry: (1) Rp 2.975, Entry (2) Rp 2.875, Cut loss point: Rp 2.775

 

4.       Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 4.150) (Close 20/06 Rp 4.000)

  • Saham defensive ini mulai menunjukan tanda tanda melawan downtrend IHSG dengan pattern higher low sejak bulan Maret masih utuh, dan sekarang tinggal menunggu kenaikan untuk membentuk high lagi di atas Rp 4.000.

  • Entry: (1) Rp 3.975, Entry (2) Rp 3.825, Cut loss point: Rp 3.750

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 21 Juni 2011

Berikut rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Selasa, 21 Juni 2011.
1. E-Trading Securities
Pada perdagangan kemarin, IHSG naik 6,8 poin (0,18%) ke level 3.729. Investor asing melakukan net buying Rp 69 miliar. Secara teknikal, IHSG berhasil ditutup positif dengan candlestick yang kembali membentuk pola spinning top. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan melemah pada range 3.685–3.759. Perhatikan TLKM, GGRM, dan MYOR. 

2. Trimegah Securities
Dibutuhkan dukungan sentimen positif untuk membawa IHSG keluar dari area negatif dengan basis support 3.720 di zona oversold. Bargain hunting pada beberapa saham unggulan seperti ASII, BBRI, BMRI diharapkan mampu mendorong IHSG bergerak positif di area 3.720 - 3.800. 

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas
Pada perdagangan Selasa (21/6), secara teknikal, indeks diperkirakan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan menguat pada kisaran 3.710-3.760. Pergerakan indeks masih akan diwarnai sentimen eksternal serta pergerakan bursa regional. Cermati ICBP, INDF, TLKM, KLBF.