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Friday, January 14, 2011

Indonesia eyes U.S. wheat over concern at Australian supplies

United States wheat exporters are seeing rising interest from Indonesia as importers look for alternative suppliers to flood-hit Australia, with negotiations expected to intensify in coming weeks, an industry official said on Thursday. 

Indonesia relies entirely on imports for its wheat, and consumption is expected to rise between 5-10 percent to around 5.2 million tons this year, local milling officials say.

Australia traditionally provides over half that, but the wheat industry there suffered a fresh setback from the country's floods disaster on Wednesday with a key grain port shutting down overnight, further restricting exports.

Among the world's four-largest wheat shippers, Australia is now expected to register a fall in exports in the 2010/11 marketing year after floods and heavy rains left much of the harvest unfit for sale to quality-conscious buyers in major markets.

"Usually, if there is no supply from Australia, the next available would be Canada and United States wheat," said a consultant to U.S. Wheat Associates. "We will be expecting to see some increase of wheat (exports) from U.S. and Canada. Definitely there is a big impact on us."

"Probably right now, people are negotiating prices ... there is going to be an impact after a few weeks," he added. "I know of (at least) one company who is now looking for U.S. retailers ... U.S. wheat is always readily available, as long as the price is right."

Indonesia is expected to import about 382,000 tonnes of wheat from the United States in the June 2010-May 2011 marketing year, the U.S. Wheat Associates said on its website.


IMPACT ON INDONESIA?
In 2009, Indonesia was Asia's second largest wheat importer after Japan, with about 5.36 million tonnes. There is far from a consensus on any impact the Australian floods will have on Indonesian supplies.


A member of the Indonesian Wheat Flour Mills Association said imports were unaffected, as the majority of Australian imports came from Western Australia and not the flood-stricken area of Queensland.

Indonesia has 14 flour mills which can process 7 million tonnes of wheat, up from four mills ten years ago, data from the local association showed. Southeast Asia's largest economy, has forecast economic growth of 6 percent this year, and as wealth improves people in urban areas are expected to consume more flour-based food as an alternative to rice.

PT Indofood Sukses Makmur , controlled by Indonesia's Salim family, in October listed its unit PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur -- the world's top noodle maker -- to tap the growth of the middle class and domestic demand.

Indofood controls two of the world's largest flour millers through its Bogasari Flour Mills unit. Source: Reuters

Jamsostek to Purchase More Bonds as Stock Gains Slow

PT Jaminan Sosial Tenaga Kerja, Indonesia’s state-pension fund, plans to increase its allocation to bonds this year to benefit from rising yields and as gains in the stock market slow. 

The fund, which has about $11 billion of assets, will raise fixed-income holdings to at least 44 percent of total investments from 41 percent, and keep equities at up to 22 percent, Investment Director Elvyn Masassya said in an interview in Jakarta yesterday. 

A 50 basis-point increase in interest rates may be enough to cope with faster inflation and the Jakarta Composite Index may end the year as much as 21 percent higher, he said. The gauge gained 46 percent last year. 

“Once the central bank does the adjustment in terms of interest rates, the coupon rate for bonds will increase,” said Masassya, who prefers to buy bonds with a maturity of five years and longer. Policy makers “must do the adjustment to control the inflation rate and also convince investors that the central bank is doing the right thing in terms of monetary policy.” 

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate at a record low of 6.5 percent after a Jan. 5 policy meeting even as consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in 20 months in December. 

Ten-year government bonds have lost 3.9 percent this year and the benchmark stock index dropped 3.7 percent on concern inflation will accelerate. Consumer prices rose to 6.96 percent in December from a year earlier, exceeding the 6.71 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. 

Bond, Stock Returns
The yield on the 8.25 percent note due July 2021 reached 8.47 percent on Jan. 11, the highest level since July 2010, according to prices from the Inter Dealer Market Association.
Rupiah-denominated bonds returned 21 percent and the Jakarta Composite Index soared 46 percent last year, the best performances among Asia’s biggest markets outside of Japan. Indonesia’s economy, Southeast Asia’s largest, escaped a recession during the 2009 global slowdown. 

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is targeting annual growth of 6.6 percent on average through the remainder of his term ending in 2014. Bank Indonesia forecast the economy will expand by as much as 6.5 percent this year from an estimated 6 percent in 2010. 

The central bank may raise its benchmark policy rate by 100 basis points between March and August, Credit Suisse AG said in a Jan. 11 report. This means gross domestic product in 2012 will expand an average 5.5 percent, lower than economists’ estimates and “potentially a big disappointment relative to the government’s ambitious aims,” Credit Suisse analysts led by Robert Prior-Wandesforde said in the report. 

Record High
The Jakarta Composite Index rose to a record 3,786.10 on Dec. 9 as low interest rates drove domestic spending, boosting shares such as PT Astra International, the nation’s biggest automotive retailer and the largest company by market value. The stock climbed 57 percent last year.

Gains in Indonesian stocks may slow this year as valuations rise, Masassya said. Once shares trade at 18 to 19 times earnings the “upside will be limited,” he said. Companies in the Jakarta Composite trade at an average 14.2 times estimated profit, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

A central bank interest-rate increase of 50 basis points to stem inflation won’t hurt the attractiveness of equities, he said, adding the index may end the year at 4,200 to 4,300 points. That’s an increase of as much as 21 percent from the gauge’s closing level of 3,564.94 yesterday. 

Mining, Agriculture
Jamsostek, as the pension fund is known, isn’t allowed to invest overseas directly and expects its assets to grow to 115 trillion rupiah ($12.7 billion) in 2011 from 98.5 trillion rupiah last year, according to Masassya. 

Masassya said he likes stocks in the mining, agriculture, and basic industries groups, citing rising demand for commodities and expectations that infrastructure spending will pick up this year. He also likes financial stocks as banks have room to boost lending even as Bank Indonesia moves to increase borrowing costs this year. 

“Don’t forget higher inflation means higher growth,” he said. “I still believe economic growth this year could be more than 6.5 percent, driven by consumption and investments.” Source: Bloomberg

Target Price Adaro Energy IDR 2,800, JP Morgan Say

PT Adaro Energy (ADRO), Indonesia’s second-largest coal producer was raised to “neutral” from “underweight” at JPMorgan Chase & Co., which said rainy weather in Indonesia should support coal prices. 

JPMorgan raised its share-price estimate to 2,800 rupiah from 2,000 rupiah, according to the report by analyst Stevanus Juanda.

Analisis terhadap IPO Garuda oleh HD Capital

Pre-IPO Coverage                                                                                                               
Listed Company: PT.Garuda Indonesia
Sektor: Infrastruktur Transportation
Mkt Cap: Rp.1.2-1.5T
Kisaran Harga: Rp.750-Rp.1.100
Analyst Rating (BUY)
Business Summary:
  • Jasa penerbangan penumpang dan cargo dalam dan luar negeri
 
Sector Comparison & Rekomendasi
  • Tidak ada, namun dari segi valuasi PER diperkirakan sekitar 11-15x 2010 PE
  • Saham yang diberikan ke Bank Mandiri sebagai pembayaran hutang mempunyai lock up period selama 12-bulan sehingga masih ada potensi upside awal tahun ini. 
     
  • Langkah persero untuk menutup operasi anak usaha Mandala juga positif karena carrier tersebut merupakan beban berat yang ditanggung oleh Garuda 
     
  • Emiten tersebut tidak mempunyai perbandingan atau competitor yang TBK dan statusnya sebagai BUMN yang telah melewati masa sulit dan me-restrukturisasi utangnya menjadi perusahaan sehat layak menjadi pertimbangan untuk membeli.
 
Dibuat oleh: 
Yuganur Wijanarko 
Senior Research HD Capital

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 14 Januari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari HD Capital untuk perdagangan Jumat, 14 Januari 2011.
BUY: (ADRO, BMRI,INDF, BBRI)

* Walaupun IHSG terimbas profit taking pada sesi dua, Asing yang masih net buy dan rupiah yang menguat menandakan bahwa tren positif masih dapat berlangsung hingga menembus resistance 3.630.

* IHSG close (13-01) 3.564.94 (+10.17/+0.29%) (Val.Rp.4.6T).

* Support: 3.530-3.430, Resistance: 3.670-3.750


Stock picks:

1. Adaro Energy (ADRO): (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.800) (close 13/01 Rp 2.625)

* Koreksi akibat keadaan jenuh beli pasca mencetak new high kemarin sudah cukup mereda, potensi adjustment selling price (ASP) harga batubara dari US$ 67 ke US$ 76/ton untuk 3-bulan kedepan akan berdampak positif untuk earnings 2011 sehingga rekomen akumulasi kembali.

* Diperkirakan produksi batubara di Q1 2011 akan berjalan sesuai target

* Entry: (1) Rp 2.600, Entry (2) Rp 2.500, Cut loss point: Rp 2.350


2. Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.200) (Close 13/01 Rp 5.850)

* Bila masih terjadi penekanan lebih lanjut rekomen akumulasi karena pasar belum melihat potensi efek positif ke kinerja persero pasca launching IPO Garuda dimana utang ke BMRI dapat menjadi aset di laporan keuangan nantinya.

* Penguatan rupiah juga memberikan efek positif ke posisi utang US$ corporate utk process loan recovery NPL.

* Entry (1) Rp 5.800, (2) Rp 5.600, Cut loss point: Rp 5.300


3. Indofood  Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp 5.000) (Close 13/01 Rp 4.725)

* Kegagalan untuk mencapai new low secara teknikal menunjukan bahwa pelaku pasar mulai melakukan akumulasi untuk membuat proses up-trend recovery terjadi di saham defensive ini.

* Kenaikan bahan pangan terutama gandum tidak bepengaruh terhadap margin mie instan seperti yang terbukti di laporan keuangan Q3 2010 lalu, dan harga cabai melambung tinggi juga tidak membebani cost divisi bumbu karena mengunakan essence cabe sintetis.

* Entry: (1) Rp 4.675, Entry: (2) Rp 4.550, Cut loss point: Rp 4.350


4. Bank BRI (BBRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 5.450) (Close 13/01 Rp 5.100)

* Target fundamental 12-bulan Rp 6.350 (2011F PER 18x, PBV 3.6x) masih menyisihkan banyak upside dari valuasi harga sekarang, Rp 5.000 (2011F PER 14x, PBV 2.7X) sehingga rekomen akumulasi.

* Biasanya saham pasca stock split melakukan tren reversal ke atas yang cukup tajam untuk adjust ke liquiditas dan minat pasar yang bertambah

* Entry: (1) Rp 5.000, Entry (2) Rp 4.900, Cut loss point: Rp 4.750


Dibuat oleh:
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)