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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Integrax Berhad Jual 70,31% Saham Indoexchange

Integrax Berhad selaku pemegang saham mayoritas PT Indoexchange Tbk (INDX) telah menjual 70,31% kepemilikan sahamnya kepada Equatorex Sdn Berhad. Jumlah saham yang dijual tersebut setara dengan 189.738.228.

Selain saham Indoexchange, Integrax Berhad juga melepas 99,85% waran atau setara dengan 42.870.363. Saham Indoexchange dihargai sebesar Rp 130/saham, sedangkan warannya dibeli oleh Equatorex pada harga Rp 80/waran. Transaksi jual beli dilakukan pada 11 Februari 2011.


Berdasarkan kalkulasi, untuk membeli 189.738.228 saham INDX di harga Rp 130, Equatorex mengeluarkan dana sebesar Rp 24.665.969.640 (Rp 24,66 miliar). Sedangkan total dana yang dihabiskan untuk membeli waran INDX mencapai Rp 3.429.629.040 (Rp 3,43 miliar).

Berdasarkan data yahoofinance, harga saham INDX pada 11 Februari 2011 berada di posisi Rp 115 setelah sehari sebelumnya mencapai Rp 122. Harga tertinggi dalam setahun terakhir berada di posisi Rp 172 yang terjadi pada 8 Juli 2010.



 

KL tin price closes at new high

The tin price on the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) soared to another all-time high today, rising sharply by US$500 to settle at US$32,200 per tonne, as supply fears continued to pressure the price.

A dealer said overseas buying has been the engine behind the price rally, which is expected to continue as traders continued to chase supply.

"Sellers are refusing to sell at the current price level as they waiting for the price to reach US$35,000 in the near future," he added.

Similarly, the tin price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) also hit an all-time high of US$32,550, moving higher by US$750 per tonne on lower production,especially from the world's second largest producer of the metal, Indonesia.




The local market was closed yesterday for the Maulidur Rasul holiday. At the opening bell today, buyers bid for 100 tonnes, while sellers offered only 30 tonnes.

Turnover decreased to 55 tonnes from 59 tonnes last Monday, with the participation of Japanese, European and local traders. The premium between the KLTM and the LME narrowed to US$115 per tonne today against US$365 per tonne previously. -- Bernama

Rupiah Appreciates After Funds Boost Indonesian Stock Holdings

Indonesia’s rupiah advanced for a second day after overseas investors boosted holdings of the nation’s assets to benefit from growth in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. 

The currency has gained 1.7 percent this month as official data showed gross domestic product rose 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the most since 2004, and Bank Indonesia raised borrowing costs for the first time in more than two years on Feb. 4. Exchange data show global funds bought $231.7 million more local shares than they sold this month, and the government said on Feb. 11 that foreign holdings of the nation’s debt rose 2 percent from the end of January to 199 trillion rupiah ($22.4 billion). 

“Foreign funds are coming in, they are expecting at least one of two more interest-rate hikes by Bank Indonesia in the first half of this year,” said Mika Martumpal, a senior market analyst at PT Bank Commonwealth in Jakarta. “The earlier increase showed that Bank Indonesia is more focused on fighting inflation.” 

The rupiah gained 0.1 percent from Feb. 14 to 8,904 per dollar as of 9:04 a.m. in Jakarta, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It has strengthened 0.8 percent this year, the most among Asia’s 10 most-traded currencies. Indonesia’s financial markets were closed for a public holiday yesterday. 

Bank Indonesia raised its reference rate to 6.75 percent this month from a record-low 6.50 percent, citing price pressures. Inflation accelerated to 7.02 percent in January from 6.96 percent in December, according to official data. The central bank meets next on March 4 to review its policy rate. Source:  Bloomberg

Toyota to build cut-price car for Asia mkt -Nikkei

* Car may be priced below $10,000 -Nikkei

* To be sold in Indonesia, neighbours -Nikkei

* New plant output 100,000 vehicles annually -Nikkei

* Toyota and group firm Daihatsu to build car-Nikkei

* Analyst sees report as positive for both firms (Adds background, updates share prices)

Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) and group firm Daihatsu (7262.T) will build a low cost car in Indonesia aimed at consumers there and in neighbouring countries, the Nikkei business daily reported on Wednesday.

The car, smaller than the Etios it launched in India in 2010, will cost around 800,000-900,000 yen ($9,550-$10,740), the report said.

With vehicle sales in the United States and other developed economies still to recover to pre-financial crisis levels, Toyota and other carmakers are vying to take advantage of growing demand for inexpensive cars in emerging markets.

Earlier this month, Renault (RENA.PA) said it was planning a new factory in Morocco that would eventually be able to produce 350,000 cars a year under its Dacia low-cost brand.

India's Tata Motors (TAMO.BO) is expanding sales across India of its Nano, dubbed the "cheapest car in the world" with a price tag of a little over $2,000, and has touted plans to bring an electric version to Europe. 

Minivehicle specialist Daihatsu, 51 percent owned by Toyota, will invest around 20 billion yen in a new factory able to build 100,000 cars annually in Indonesia, 70 percent of which it will supply to its parent company, the Nikkei said.

Production, which will be 50,000 cars in the first year, is due to begin as early as 2013, the paper said.

Toyota spokeswoman Shiori Hashimoto said it did not comment on product plans.

By bolstering output in Indonesia, Toyota aims to make the country its second big production base in Southeast Asia after Thailand, the report said.

"We view this story, if accurate, as positive for both companies," analyst Issei Takahashi of Credit Suisse said in a note to clients. "As Toyota had previously made no mention of a strategic emerging-market offering positioned below the Etios, this news could well heighten expectations regarding the company's strategy for industrialised countries," he said.

Growth in emerging markets was critical to raising Toyota's operating margin, he said. Source: Reuters

Timah sees refined tin output down up to 8 pct in 2011


Indonesias state-owned PT Timah, the worlds largest integrated tin miner, on
Wednesday estimated its refined tin production this year at between 37,000 and 40,000 
tonnes,  up to eight percent down on last year.
           
The forecast is likely to add to bullish sentiment on the metal after falling supply 
from Indonesia, the worlds top exporter, has been driving a rally in the past year 
in benchmark London tin prices to a fresh record high on Tuesday. 
         
The miner earlier this month said refined tin production in 2010 was 40,413 tonnes, 
which was down from 45,086 tonnes in 2009 as heavy rains hampered mining and 
easily recoverable onshore reserves are declining.    
 
"Excessive supply will not be good for maintaining the worlds tin price, the company
corporate secretary Abrun Abubakar told Reuters on Wednesday. We will always control 
our production rate for reserve conservation purposes. 
        
Indonesia, the worlds top tin exporter, will limit annual output to a maximum of 
100,000 tonnes if record high prices set off a scramble for the metal, a senior 
mining official said last month. 
 
Three-month tin on the London Metal Exchange soared to a record 
high of $32,799 a tonne on Tuesday as prospects of supply constraints from top 
exporter Indonesia attracted investors.            
 
Indonesia, which supplies nearly 30 percent of the worlds tin consumption, 
produced an estimated 105,000 tonnes in 2010. We still cannot publish our 
2011 working programme, but output is estimated to be between 37,000 to 40,000 tonnes,
Abubakar said.    
 
A Reuters survey published late in January showed analysts  expecting a deficit of 
15,000 tonnes in the tin market this year. The average of 24 forecasts showed the 
cash tin price would average $27,000 a tonne this year, and rise to
$27,419 next year.  
        
The story for PT Timah is, even though they have production lower than 
previous years, they have benefited from the increasing tin price in the 
global market, said Norico Gaman, head of research at PT BNI Securities.     
  
With the tin price increasing more than 30 percent in 2010,
this benefits an improving net profit (outlook) for Timah. 
Timah said this month it expects a 2011 net profit of around
1 trillion rupiah ($111.2 million), boosted by rising global tin
prices.  
 
Tin consultants ITRI last month estimated 2010 global tin
consumption at 360,300 tonnes, up 12.5 percent. 
Demand for the metal, used in electronics, plating and
lead-free solders, is seen rising in the coming years, while
analysts have for months forecast that Indonesian output will
fail to keep pace due to a lack of investment in mining.
In addition, a crackdown on illegal mining since 2006,
tighter export regulations, as well as declining onshore
reserves and rainy weather, have all hindered production in
Indonesia. Source: Reuters

World's top 12 tin companies


China's Yunnan Tin is the world's largest tin producer for the sixth straight year with output rising from last year, data from UK-based consultant ITRI shows.      

Indonesia's state owned PT Timah , the No.2 producer, posted a decline in production after heavy rains hampered mining.
        
Following is a list of major producers and their output of refined tin in tonnes for 2010 and 2009, according to ITRI.   
         
                                                2010        2009    % change  
                                                 (in tonnes)     
 1. Yunnan Tin  (China)*              59,180      55,898     +5.9       
 2. PT Timah (Indonesia)*            40,413      45,086    -10.4      
 3. Malaysia Smelting Corp *        38,737      36,407     +6.4     
 4. Minsur (Peru) *                      36,052      33,920     +6.3 
 5. Thaisarco (Thailand) *            23,505      19,300    +21.8      
 6. Guangxi China Tin                 14,300      10,500    +36.2       
 7. Yunnan Chengfeng (China) *   14,155      14,947     -5.3   
 8. EM Vinto (Bolivia)                 11,520      11,805     -2.4
 9. Metallo Chimique (Beligium)*  9,945       8,690    +14.4   
 10. Gejiu Zi-Li (China)               9,000       5,600    +60.7        
 11. PT Koba Tin (Indonesia) *      6,644       7,455    -10.9      
 12. Jiangxi Nanshan Tin              6,000       3,000   +100.0       
 * members of ITRI and collectively account for 66.7 percent of world tin production at
351,300 tonnes last year.  Source: Reuters 

Vopak, Chandra Asri to build LPG terminal in Indonesia

Dutch oil and chemicals storage firm Vopak will build a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) terminal in Indonesia together with Chandra Asri Petrochemical for $150 million in investment, the Indonesian firm said on Monday.

Chandra Asri said construction was expected to begin by the end of this year and the terminal will be onstream by 2014.

"The terminal's distribution capacity is expected to be 1 million tones per year," Chandri Asri's president director Erwin Ciputra said in a statement.

He said the terminal could be used to distribute LPG both to its own factories and to other companies. LPG includes propane and butane, and prices soared in the fourth quarter, due to cold European weather and an overall rise in demand for petrochemical feedstocks.
Vopak is the world's largest independent storage tank operator.

Chandri Asri is owned by PT Tri Polyta Indonesia , the country's largest manufacturer of polypropylene resins, through PT Barito Pacific , the holding company of Indonesian tycoon Prajogo Pangestu. Source: Reuters

Bontang LNG output to fall 6 pct in 2011

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) output from Indonesia's Bontang plant is expected to fall by 6 percent this year due to lower supply of natural gas from a Total field, the plant's operator PT Badak NGL said on Monday.

Badak's president director Hanung Budya said LNG output was expected to be 33,883,503 cubic meters this year from the plant in Kalimantan province, down from 36,110,227 cubic meters in 2010.

The Bontang plant receives gas supply from the Mahakam gas block operated by France's Total.

The country's oil and gas regulator BPMigas had already said last month that the country's LNG exports will fall to 362 cargoes this year from 427 cargoes in 2010, based on export commitments from Bontang, ExxonMobil's Arun LNG and BP's Tangguh LNG.

Indonesia, the world's number-three LNG exported after Qatar and Malaysia, is increasing its use of natural gas for domestic market. Source: Reuters

Indonesia says Russia to build $3 bln nickel smelter

Russian investors plan to build a $3 billion nickel smelter in Halmahera island in eastern Indonesia, a sign of growing interest to invest in the country's mineral processing industry. 

Indonesia, the world's top exporter of tin and thermal coal, is keen to increase revenue from the mining sector. Under a new mining and coal law, miners must by 2014 carry out a minimum of processing before exporting, including on nickel. 

"There will be a $3 billion foreign direct investment from Russia to build a nickel smelter in Halmahera island," said chief economic minister Hatta Rajasa on Monday, adding groundbreaking will start in the first half of the year. 

He did not give details on the Russian investors. 

Russia's Norilsk Nickel , in which RUSAL owns a 25 percent stake, is the world's largest nickel miner. French's Eramet , the world's sixth-largest nickel producer, has a nickel project on Halmahera in a joint venture with Indonesian state miner PT Aneka Tambang Tbk. 

Indonesia currently produces ferro-nickel from three nickel smelters operated by Aneka Tambang and nickel-in-matte from smelters operated by PT Inco Tbk , a unit of Brazil's Vale.
 
Indonesia's mining sector attracted 53 trillion rupiah or $6 billion in bank financing up to September 2010, versus the 14 trillion rupiah that banks loaned to the industry in 2006, central bank figures show, despite uncertainties over the country's new mining law. 

Foreign direct investment as a whole is growing into Southeast Asia's biggest economy, as investors eye its mineral wealth, booming domestic consumption and increased stability, despite concerns over rampant corruption, red tape and inadequate infrastructure. Source:  Reuters

Tin price hits another fresh high at US$32,700 per tonne

Tin soared to another record on the LME on Tuesday morning but the other metals were little changed as traders began to take profits and questioned whether prices are justified at these heights.

Fund buying has been the engine behind the latest price rally but market participants are starting to feel that further rate rises in China are inevitable in the coming months.

“The base metals are ripe for a correction on numerous counts - they are seeing some weakness as trading gets underway this morning so we would not be surprised by further weakness but, with so much data out today, sentiment could swing either way or indeed both ways,” FastMarkets analyst William Adams said.

Sentiment was boosted on Tuesday by news that Chinese inflation last month - at 4.9 percent - was not nearly as severe as feared previously, defying forecasts for a 5.3-percent rise in the world’s leading metals consumer.

Though the figures provided some relief, there is still a need for measures to tackle inflation and the overheated local economy, which could ultimately result in lower demand for commodities, according to analysts.

Indeed, some argue the latest CPI figures are not completely reliable - the measurement was recently amended to lighten the influence of food, a component that previously accounted for a third of the index and was the main inflationary driver last year.

The dollar remained firm against the euro at 1.3525; the base metals complex still appears to be decoupling from currency movements - a phenomenon that is “not a bad thing”, according to Dennis Gartman, author of the Gartman Letter.

“It signals the fact that the commodities markets are turning to their own distinct fundamentals divorced from mere dollar considerations,” he argued.

Retail sales, empire manufacturing and business inventories are due from the US this afternoon after this morning’s swathe of data.

ZINC DEFIES RISING STOCKS BUT COULD NOW UNDERPERFORMZinc stocks have gradually increased over the past few quarter but the metal has rallied alongside the other base metals.

Although mine closures are set to strengthen the zinc market somewhat, Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts that large deficits are unlikely.

“We do not expect any acute concentrate shortages in the near-term,” BoA-ML metals analyst Michael Widmer said. “We therefore maintain our price forecast at $2,725 per tonne and believe that zinc will underperform other metals like copper.”

Zinc rose $2 to $2,523 while sister metal lead was unchanged at $2,640. Stocks of the latter rose 1,925 tonnes to 297,500 tonnes, the highest since March 20, 1995.

Copper was $44 lower at $10,116. Stocks rose to 402,425 tonnes, again at their highest level since August 25, 2010. Although LME inventories have climbed 6.4 percent this year, prices have continued to rise.

Aluminium was little changed, just $3 lower at $2,511. Stocks rose a net 5,500 tonnes to 4,600,225 tonnes, the highest since March 30, 2010. Inventories reached their highest level ever on January 21 last year at 4,640,750 tonnes.

The metal hit a two-year high of $2,575.25 on February 9 but is still far below its all-time record of $3,380 from July 2008.

Nickel was effectively unchanged at $28,900, up $5. The alloying metal hit $29,000 earlier on Tuesday, the highest since May 2008.

Tin traded at $32,700, up $250. The metal hit an all-time high of $32,799 earlier on Tuesday.

Steel billet traded at $565. In the minors, cobalt was indicated at $38,000/39,700 and molybdenum was indicated at $38,000/41,300. Source: Fxstreet

Metals prices to continue to rack up firsts, set new landmarks--Barclays

Barclays Commodities research has determined copper and tin are blazing new trails in record-breaking metals prices. 

Noting metals are entering "uncharted territory" in 2011 with a series of firsts and new landmarks being set along the way, Barclays Capital commodities analysts revised metals price forecasts higher to reflect positive fundamentals and tighter market balances.

"Out in front, and by a big margin, are the trailbreakers copper and tin," said the analysts.

"With stocks-to-consumption ratios for these metals forecast to fall to record lows, set against a market with newfound confidence, we believe the prices will rise much further still, with copper prices expected to average more than $13,000/t by the end of the year," Barclays Capital predicted.

Barclays' precious metal forecasts for this year include $1,495/oz gold, $20.1/oz silver, $1,815/oz platinum, and $820/oz palladium. Base metals forecasts for 2011 include $11,500/t copper, $2,588/t lead, $28,625/t nickel, $32,000/t tin, and $2,538/t zinc.

COPPER: In their analysis, Barclays Commodities observed that a re-pricing of the 2011 economic outlook has had a palpable impact on copper prices. "The flow of very positive economic data has given the market something it lacked in 2010-confidence. This has added another layer of strength to raising the base for our forecasts."

"Consequently, we believe that when our projected fundamentals do play out, the price response will be even higher and we have revised our forecasts upwards to account for this," the analysts said.

GOLD:  Despite the sharp correction this month, Barclays maintains a positive view on gold prices for the year. "Gold has suffered steep corrections in this past that have proved healthy for prices to rebuild their losses."

LEAD: Barclays noted that lead has been the weakest performer across the base metals complex in the past month, "close to flat, which compares poorly with the double-digit percentage gains achieved by tin and nickel."

Nevertheless, the analysts now forecast the lead market "to ultimately shift into a significant deficit by H2 11, which represents a change from our previous forecast for a moderate surplus." For instance, little growth has been predicted in Chinese mined lead production. Meanwhile, the supply side of the lead market "remains extremely disruption prone and the prospects for global supply are very much constrained."

NICKEL:  Nickel prices are now at their highest levels since mid-2008, according to Barclays. The analysts suggested that upward momentum in nickel prices to continue this month with a $30,000/t a near term target.

PALLADIUM: Similar to platinum, palladium has consolidated its gains above $800/oz and tested levels not seen in almost 10 years. "The palladium balance is set to remain constructive this year, as supplies show and industrial and investment demand remains healthy," Barclays advised.

PLATINUM: Platinum supply growth remains vulnerable due to potential South African power supply shortages. Demand from China remains robust. In contrast to gold and silver, platinum ETPs flows retain their positive momentum.

SILVER: Silver kicked off 2011 in poor form and was the weakest performing precious metal last month. "Although in surplus fundamentally, investor interest has been torn in January, and silver has been caught between staggering retail coin demand and hefty ETP net redemptions," the analysts observed. "When invest demand wanes, industrial demand will need to plug the gap."

TIN: Tin is regularly setting new record prices close to $31,000/t thus far this year. With no new mine supply on the horizon and the demand side well supported by robust Chinese growth, "this is a low risk supposition in terms of market expectations," said the analysts. "While there is enough inventory to buffer the effect of the projected 2011 deficit, after that point, it is clear that the price signal will have to rise high enough to ration demand as otherwise stocks will fall close to depletion."

ZINC: Chinese refined zinc production hit a record high in December, and mine production was the second highest on record. "However, current mines are facing a declining ore reserve base, and continued strong growth will depend on investment in larger mines and the performance of the informal sector, leading to the risk of Chinese output stalling in 2011," Barclays advised. "This will be the key swing factor for zinc prices this year, in our view." Source: Mineweb

Copper and tin hit new peaks

Copper scaled new all-time peaks and tin hit a record on Monday, as supply tightness bolstered both metals, while a surprise jump in copper imports from top metals consumer China brightened sentiment.

Copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange closed at $10,160 from $9,961 a tonne on Friday. The metal used in power and construction hit a record high of $10,168.50 earlier.

Tin hit a record high of $32,460 a tonne, before finishing up at $32,450 from $31,775, as supply constraints in Indonesia supported prices.

Used extensively in the power and construction sectors, copper has surged more than 60 percent since last June, when financial and commodity markets tumbled on fears of sovereign defaults in euro zone countries such as Greece.

But robust demand from emerging nations and recovering demand from the West, against a backdrop of limited supply is seen as increasingly bullish for prices.

“The import data was stronger than the market had expected. Generally the market had expected a continuation of the trend … for weaker exports,” said analyst Gayle Berry of Barclays Capital regarding the Chinese data. “But the imports were up month on month and year on year, and that has certainly given us a renewed boost to market sentiment.”

Preliminary Chinese trade data showed copper imports jumped a surprise 5.7 percent to 364,420 tonnes in January.

“The market’s taken these numbers in a very bullish way,” said Robin Bhar, an analyst at Credit Agricole. “China’s appetite is insatiable.”

Investors will focus on Chinese inflation data due out on Tuesday as the market remains concerned about the degree to which demand could be affected by the country’s efforts to rein in inflation, following last week’s rate hike.

Traders said that consumer prices (CPI) may have risen 4.9 percent in the year to January, well below the consensus forecast of 5.3 percent. The official data will be announced on Tuesday.

Prospects for inflation could hamper metals going into the second half as emerging market central banks draw in monetary policy, said MF Global in a note.
“There continues to be legitimate worries about rising inflation fears, particularly in emerging markets…This is not exactly a conducive backdrop for commodity price appreciation, especially heading into the second half of 2011.”

Stocks of copper in LME warehouses on Friday rose 5,050 tonnes to a six-month high of 401,775 tonnes, continuing a recent climb that has kept optimism about demand in check.
Aluminium ended at $2,514 a tonne from $2,496. Stocks of aluminium in LME warehouses dipped 4,725 tonnes to 4,594,725 tonnes, within reach of a record high of 4,640,750 tonnes hit in January 2010 as market sources said expiring finance deals were boosting stock levels.

However cancelled warrants — metal tagged for removal from warehouses — rose by nearly 50,000 tonnes, having climbed by double that amount in Detroit since Thursday, pointing to a pick-up in demand from key consumer the autosector.

“Strong auto production growth is good news for many commodities, accounting for about 25 percent of aluminium (including secondary), 25 percent of zinc, 15 percent of steel and 10 percent of copper usage,” said Macquarie in a note.

Also grabbing investors’ attention, Russia’s United Company RUSAL Ltd, the world’s largest aluminium producer, said on Monday an aluminium exchange traded fund (ETF) could be launched soon in the UK.

“The question is, will the ETF launch mop up that excess?” Bhar said of LME stocks.
Rusal said it sees steady output growth in 2011, driven by strong demand from China and a rebound in North America.

Elsewhere, zinc ended at $2,541 a tonne from $2,465 a tonne, battery material lead was at $2,640 from $2,560 a tonne.

Nickel closed at $28,895, its highest in nearly three years as LME stocks decline, reflecting a seasonal uptick in stainless steel demand. Source: Financial Post

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 16 Februari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 16 Februari 2011, dengan opsi beli terhadap saham Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Bank Mandiri (BMRI), Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF), dan Astra International (ASII).
BUY: (BBRI, BMRI, INDF, ASII)
  • Penutupan IHSG di jalur hijau dengan volume lebih tinggi dari perdagangan sesi Jumat lalu membuat kita berspekulasi bahwa rally masih akan berlanjut
  • Bila kenaikan IHSG berlanjut diatas 3.440 (down-trendline-line) akan merubah arah tren jangka pendek ke positif.
  • IHSG close (14-02) 3.415.960(+23.460/+0.73%) (Val.Rp.3.9T) 
  • Support: 3.380-3.310-3.250, Resistance: 3,490-3,530-3,620
 
Stock picks:
1.      Bank BRI (BBRI): (BUY) (target: Rp 4.850) (close 14/02 Rp 4.625)
  • Walaupun terimbas kompetisi di sekmen UKM mikro, namun margin masih dapat tumbuh di atas 7% akibat funding cost murah dan akuisisi Bank Agroniaga yang membuat proyeksi pertumbuhan kredit 18% untuk periode 2010-2012
  • Bank ini mempunyai kemampuan terbatas untuk mencari dana lewat mekanisme rights issue sehingga hal ini tidak akan dilakukan pada 2011
  • ROE 30% tertinggi di antara semua bank pemerintah
  • Penurunan setoran dividen ke pemerintah bisa menjadi alternatif untk mengurangi CAR dari penurunan lebih lanjut.
  • Entry (1) Rp 4.625, Entry (2) Rp 4.550, Cut loss point: Rp 4.500
 
2.   Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 5.800) (Close 14/02 Rp 5.600)
  • Pasca rights issue 13T BMRI akhirnya dapat memperbaiki likuiditas untuk ekspansi dan CAR serta mempunyai fleksibilitas untuk pertumbuhan kredit lebih lanjut
  • Diperkirakan CAR 2011F akan naik ke 17% dari sebelumnya 11.6%
  • Penghapusan kredit macet Rp 1 trililun dari IPO Garuda dan penjualan aset Domba Mas (senilai Rp 1,6 triliun) (total sekitar Rp 3,3 triliun) merupakan bukti dari NPL recovery success story
  • Policy kredit kedepan lebih fokus kepada aset yang berkualitas sehingga risiko adanya debitur nakal dan kredit macet seperti dulu dapat terkurangi
  • Entry (1) Rp 5.600, Entry (2) Rp 5.450, Cut loss point: Rp 5.350
 
3.   Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp 4.900) (Close 14/01 Rp 4.725)
  • Kenaikan harga komoditas gandum di 2010 tidak berdampak signifikan ke pertumbuhan laba seperti ditakutkan banyak orang
  • Potensi kenaikan harga mie instan sebesar 5-10% (Rp.25-50) di tahun ini belum priced in
  • Kenaikan sebesar 0.5% atau 1% pada harga jual mie berdampak pada kenaikan pendapatan perusahaan hingga 4 -8%
  • Skenario ini membuat profit 2011 dapat naik 20% dengan kenaikan jual harga mie Rp 25 dan 80% untuk kenaikan Rp 50.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 4.700, Entry (2) 4.600, Cut loss point: Rp 4.450
 
4.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY) (Target: Rp 51.000) (close 14/01 Rp 49.600)
  • Kurangnya transportasi umum dan adanya fasilitas kredit membuat tagret penjualan mobil 11% tetap jalan di 2011 (terbukti pajak progressif yang diberlakukan Januari tidak menurunkan minat beli mobil di bulan itu)
  • Proyeksi EPS growth 15% dengan skenario penurunan divis mobil (56%) ter-offset oleh margin pendapatan di CPO (AALI) & Coal (UNTR) yang diuntungkan dari kenaikan komoditas positif buat ASII)
  • Strategy ini bisa digunakan untuk mengejar Coal dan CPO play dengan valuasi PER/PBV murah versus membeli AALI & UNTR secara terpisah yang diperdangankan diatas PER 2011 16x versus valuasi ASII PER 14x. 
  • Entry: (1) Rp 49.400, Entry (2) Rp 48.700, Cut-loss point: Rp 48.300
 
 
Dibuat oleh: 
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 16 Februari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari empat sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Rabu, 16 Februari 2011.
 
1. E-Trading Securities
Pada perdagangan Senin (14/2), IHSG naik 25 poin (0,74%) ke level 3.416,76 dengan volume perdagangan tipis. Asing pada hari itu melakukan net buying Rp 47 milliar di pasar reguler, dan di pasar negosiasi net buying mencapai Rp 1,715 triliun disebabkan perdagangan right BMRI. Secara teknikal, pergerakan indeks Senin belum dapat dijadikan konfirmasi berakhirnya fase konsolidasi. Sedangkan untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.342-3.458. Amati BBCA, ITMG, dan AALI.

2. Sucorinvest Central Gani
Sejumlah saham saham sektor perkebunan, keuangan, aneka industri memimpin penguatan indeks Senin lalu di tengah-tengah penguatan indeks bursa global. Ini setelah Presiden Mesir Hosni Mubarak mengundurkan diri dan naiknya harga komoditas seiring realisasi ekspor Tiongkok yang lebih baik dari konsensus. Pada perdagangan hari ini, indeks akan berada di level 3.397- 3.434.

3. Erdhika Sekuritas
Hampir seluruh sektor menguat pada perdagangan Senin lalu, kecuali industri dasar dan infrastruktur yang terpangkas masing-masing 0,068% dan 0,073%. Hari ini indeks masih akan berpotensi menguat pada kisaran 3.396-3.451. Saham-saham rekomendasi kami antara lain BUMI, PGAS, LPKR.

4. Sinarmas Sekuritas  
Secara teknikal, indeks hari ini diperkirakan akan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan menguat pada kisaran 3.430-3.520. Pergerakan bursa global dan data-data ekonomi yang dirilis selama hari libur dapat memberikan sentimen positif terhadap IHSG. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan adalah ADRO, KLBF, dan PTBA.