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Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Lion Air eyes $1 billion-plus in 2012 IPO

Lion Air, Indonesia's biggest airline by passenger volume, aims to raise more than $1 billion in an initial public offering (IPO) in 2012, its chief executive told Reuters on Wednesday.

The low-cost carrier has ambitious expansion plans, in a country where an increasing number of IPOs is seen in the next year, to take advantage of a buoyant capital market.

"We will ... use the IPO money as additional capital for our company as we have a huge expansion plan, but it doesn't mean we badly need money. We have all the financing we need through loans," said founder and CEO Rusdi Kirana.

Lion Air, which flies to a few Southeast Asian cities and across Indonesia, plans to expand by purchasing 178 planes worth $14 billion from Boeing Co by 2016.

It has a $1 billion loan to buy 22 planes this year, including 16 Boeing 737-900s, Kirana said. It expects to fly 20 million people this year, up from 17 million last year, he said.

"They have promising growth ... Looking at our population and because we're an archipelago, the most ideal transportation is air," said Alvin Pattisahusiwa, a fund manager in Jakarta at BNP Paribas Investment Partners, which manages about $3 billion.

If Lion Air could win removal from a European Union list of carriers banned from operating to the continent, imposed after a string of Indonesian air disasters, expansion would be boosted.

Analysts say Asian low-cost carriers have bigger expansion potential compared with established national carriers.

Philippine budget carrier Cebu Air raised $538 million in an IPO last October.

Indonesian flag carrier Garuda is set to raise $526 million in an IPO this month, half the $1.1 billion it targeted, after foreign investors were put off by pricing that valued it far higher than regional peers.

Harry Su, head of research at PT Bahana Securities in Jakarta, said the air penetration rate in Indonesia is only 15 percent in the world's fourth most populous nation.

Airline executives say the Indonesian market is a bright spot in an industry still struggling to recover from the global financial crisis, though Mandala Airlines recently suspended flights because of debt problems.

International air traffic slowed in November, according to industry body IATA, a sign the global recovery was slowing. Rising oil prices also pose a threat. Source: Reuters

Semen Gresik says 2010 profit up 10 percent

Indonesia's biggest cement maker by output PT Semen Gresik sees its 2010 net profit up 10 percent, as efficiency gains made up for flat revenue, Dwi Sutjipto, the firm's president director, told Reuters on Tuesday.

This would lag analysts' forecasts for 2010 net profit growth of about 14 percent to 3.8 trillion rupiah ($420 million), according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. ($1 = 9048 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Indonesia Blocks 3.5 Million Tons of Coal Shipments

Indonesia’s government has blocked shipments of at least 3.5 million metric tons of coal since Jan. 15, after a delay in issuing new trading permits, an industry group said. 

About 70 vessels, each with a capacity of 50,000 tons, are stuck at ports because surveyors checking shipments won’t allow the exports before traders obtain fresh licenses from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, said Bob Kamandanu, chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association. 

“Some traders have declared force majeure because of the permit issue,” Kamandanu told reporters in Jakarta today, without identifying them. “More shipments will be halted as a lot more ships are entering the ports.” 

Indonesia’s mining law of 2009 requires traders to convert old permits into new trading licenses issued by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry before they ship products overseas, said Djunaedi, head of mining exports at the Trade Ministry said Jan. 26. The ministry halted the process of giving out new licenses while waiting for the ministerial decree to be issued, Djunaedi, who uses one name, said at the time. 

Alberth Yusuf Tobogu, export director of mining and industry products at the Trade Ministry, and Djunaedi didn’t answer two calls to their mobile phones seeking comment.
Force majeure is a legal clause that allows producers to miss deliveries because of circumstances beyond their control. 

Indonesia, the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, has since 2008 required all exports of coal, metal ores and concentrate to be verified by government-appointed surveyors to prevent illegal shipments of commodities. 

Coal prices at Newcastle, Australia, may climb 34 percent on average this year as floods cut supplies and Asian demand soars, Societe Generale SA said in a Jan. 20 report. The Asian benchmark dropped to $125.25 a ton for the week ended Jan. 28, compared with $138.50 a ton, a 28-month high, on Jan. 14, according to data from Petersfield, England-based IHS McCloskey. Source:  Bloomberg

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 2 Februari 2011


Berikut rekomendasi dua sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Selasa, 2 Februari 2011. 
 
1. E-Trading Securities
Pada Selasa (1/2), IHSG ditutup naik 33 poin (0,98%) ke level 3.442. Indeks menguat di tengah inflasi Januari 2011 sebesar 0,89%, lebih tinggi dibanding bulan sama 2010 sebesar 0,84%. Asing mendominasi perdagangan kemarin dengan nilai transaksi Rp 4,3 triliun, dari total Rp 4,8 triliun. Pada perdagangan hari ini, indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak di kisaran 3.378-3.485. Cermati ADRO, BDMN dan SMGR.

2. Erdhika Sekuritas
Indeks kemarin rebound setelah terkoreksi selama dua hari berturut-turut. Sektor pertambangan menjadi penggerak penguatan indeks, menyusul menguatnya beberapa harga komoditas. Hari ini indeks akan berada pada kisaran 3.418-3.476 dengan ANTM, AALI, CPIN sebagai saham pilihan.





Rekomendasi HD Capital, 2 Februari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 2 Februari 2011, yang merekomendasikan beli terhadap empat saham pilihannya, yakni Bumi Resources (BUMI), United Tractor (UNTR), United Tractor (UNTR), Timah (TINS), dan Astra International (ASII).

BUY: BUMI, UNTR, TINS,ASII
  • Penutupan di atas 3.410 membuka peluang IHSG untuk mencoba mengetes down-trend-line di 3.488
  • Core inflation yang lebih rendah membuat BI enggan menaikan rate
  • Minyak di atas $90/b mendorong rally di saham komoditas
  • IHSG close (01-02) 3.422.61 (+33.01/+0.98%) (Val.Rp.4.6T)
  • Support: 3.392-3.330, Resistance: 3.530-3.650

Stock picks:

1.    BUMI  Resources (BUMI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 3.000-3.200) (close 01/02 Rp 2.875)
  • Koreksi akibat sentimen negatif dari turunnya harga batubara ($135 ke $120/ton) mulai mereda dan kelihatannya rally dari Rp 2.725 akan berlanjut hingga di atas price gap yang terletak di Rp 3.000.
  • Pelaku pasar mulai optimistis terhadap kinerja laporan keuangan full year 2010 yang belum dirilis.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 2.850, Entry (2) Rp 2.750, Cut loss point: Rp 2.675

2.   United Tractors (UNTR) (BUY): (Target: Rp 23.700) (Close 01/02 Rp 21.550)
  • Valuasi no 2 paling murah (2010 PE 18x, 2011 PEF 12x) setelah BUMI (2010 PE 17x, 2011 PEF 11x) dan tanpa dibebani oleh masalah leverage (utang) tinggi membuat investor seharusnya mulai melirik emiten heavy equipment yang sekarang lebih bergelut ke bisnis batubara.
  • Penguatan rupiah juga memberikan efek positif ke segmen penjualan heavy equipment yang cost impor dalam US$.
  • Entry (1) Rp 21.500, (2) Rp 21.200, Cut loss point: Rp 20.800

3.   Tambang Timah (TINS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.950) (Close 01/02 Rp 2.825)
  • Penutupan di atas down-trend-line Rp 2.700 menandakan bahwa tren turun jangka pendek dari September 2010 (Sejak di atas level Rp 3.100) mulai ada tanda-tanda perbaikan untuk positive trend reversal sehingga rekomen akumulasi.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 2.825, Entry: (2) Rp 2.700, Cut loss point: Rp 2.600

4.    Astra International (ASII): (BUY) (Target: Rp 50.000) (Close 01/02 Rp 48.600)
  • Bila masih terjadi koreksi rekomen akumulasi karena secara valuasi ASII masih menarik, PER 2010 di 15x, dan PER 11F di 13x, dengan riset fundamental 12-bulan target fundamental analis berkisar antara Rp 53.000 dan Rp 80.000 (HD)
  • Entry: (1) Rp 48.000, Entry (2) Rp 47.000, Cut loss point: Rp 46.000


Dibuat oleh:
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)