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Monday, August 9, 2010

Palm Oil Advances to 15-Month High on Supply Outlook Amid Drought, La Nina

Palm oil climbed for a fourth day to the highest level in 15 months on concern that the La Nina weather event may disrupt harvesting in growing regions and as a drought in Russia reduces global grain supply. 

October-delivery futures gained 70 ringgit, or 2.6 percent, to close at 2,731 ringgit ($869) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the highest level since May 13, 2009. The advance was the most in five months. 

May-delivery soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange surged 174 yuan, or 2.1 percent, to 8,286 yuan ($1,225) a ton, the highest since September 2008. 

Wheat prices rallied to a 23-month high on Aug. 6 as Russia halted grain exports after dry weather cut output and flooding in Canada ruined crops. 

Palm oil harvesting in Malaysia, the world’s second-biggest producer, may be disrupted in November and December as a La Nina weather event causes flooding in major growing areas, the country’s forecaster said last week. 

“Bad global weather phenomena, such as more floods and what’s happening in Russia, are stoking concerns on global grain supply,” Cao Huimin, analyst at China Cereals and Oils Business Net, said by phone from Beijing. “Since agricultural products compete for land, it’s helping oilseeds.”

Palm oil must rise “rapidly” to cool export demand as output declines in Malaysia and weather damages canola crops in Europe and Canada, Dorab Mistry, a director at Godrej International Ltd. said last week. Godrej is one of India’s biggest cooking oil importers.

Price Rebounds
Palm oil has rebounded 20 percent from an almost eight- month low on July 7 on speculation that demand may rise in Asian nations and futures will track advances in crude oil, soybeans and equities. 

China, India, Pakistan and Indonesia celebrate festivals in the three months ending September, typically stoking edible-oils demand. 

Palm oil exports from Malaysia climbed 4.4 percent in July to 1,412,300 tons from a month earlier, market surveyor Intertek said July 31. Rival Societe Generale de Surveillance said sales gained 4.7 percent to 1,402,317 tons last month. 

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia touched a 10-month low of 1.45 million tons in June, the board said July 12. Shipments advanced 5.5 percent to 1.44 million tons last month, it said. 

The Malaysian Palm oil Board will release July’s production, inventory and export data tomorrow. 

Weather Factor
“On the global front weather has been playing hide and seek; at one part we have excess of rains whereas in other areas soil moisture has been totally soaked up,” AnandRathi Commodities Ltd. said today in a note to clients. 

The company forecast palm oil to rise first to 2,800 ringgit a ton, then to 3,000 ringgit.
December-delivery soybean oil jumped as much as 2 percent to 42.96 cents a pound in Chicago, the highest intra-day level since October 2008. 

That narrowed the vegetable oil’s premium over palm oil to $78.37 a ton from $84.14 on Aug. 6, according to Bloomberg data. 

CME Group Inc.’s October-delivery palm oil contract, pegged to the Malaysian benchmark price, jumped as much as 3.8 percent to $869 a ton, the highest price since the exchange began trading the product in May.Source: Bloomberg

Asian mills eye Aussie wheat as traders scrap deals

Exporters canceled major contracts of drought-hit Black Sea wheat to Bangladesh on Monday, signaling the need for Asian millers to scramble for supplies from other key growers like Australia.

Russia banned grain exports on Thursday last week as the worst drought on record ravaged crops across the Black Sea region, boosting the Chicago Board of Trade front-month wheat contract up 66 percent from a low of $4.25- in June.

Chicago wheat futures fell nearly 3 percent on Monday, extending their losses to around 10 percent in two sessions, but traders say the impact of the Russian ban has not been fully felt and the market faces wide swings in prices.

"We see more deals being canceled as nothing can be done about it," said one Singapore-based trading manager.

"People have no choice but to go for Australian wheat as the U.S. is still more expensive due to higher freight costs."

Global suppliers canceled around 200,000 tonnes of Black Sea wheat to Bangladesh following the ban, raising fears of more cargoes being dropped in the days ahead.

AUSTRALIAN CASH PRICES FIRM
Other Asian buyers signed deals for supplies of Black Sea wheat at around US$ 200-240 a tonne in May and June, including cost and freight (C&F). But prices have climbed to US$ 270-290 a tonne and concern is growing on commitments already made.

Traders have estimated up to one million tonnes of wheat cargoes to Asia could be affected by Russia's decision to ban grain exports.
Mills in Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia use cheaper Black Sea wheat and blend it with higher quality U.S. and Australian grains. Feed millers have also been snapping up cargoes of feed quality wheat from Ukraine this year.

Australian cash wheat prices have strengthening in last few weeks on prospects of buyers seeking more supplies.

Australian prime wheat is quoted around $320 to $340 a tonne, C&F to Southeast Asia, compared with $280 to $300 a few weeks ago.

"We've also got some of the north Asian buyers coming into the market this week for their routine tender programs," said Tom Puddy, head of grain trading at Western Australian grain firm CBH Group."We are expecting about 100,000 tonnes going to north Asia from Australia this week."

Chicago Board of Trade wheat for September delivery dropped 2.7 percent to $7.06- a bushel by 0843 GMT, adding to the 7.6 percent fall on Friday.

Influential U.S. investor Jim Rogers, who appeared in Reuters forums, said he was bullish on agricultural commodities.

"I expect agriculture to continue to do well for several years, no matter what happens to the world," he said.

"The Russian drought itself will not lead to a food crisis, but we are going to have other similar problems because agriculture has been so depressed for three decades."

Russia's wheat crop may fall to as low as 43 million tonnes this year from 61.7 million tonnes in 2009 after a severe drought has destroyed many grain producing regions, leading agricultural analysts SovEcon said on Monday.

Australia, which is expected to produce a bumper crop at the end of this year, is also facing a threat of dry weather in Western Australia.

Dry weather is prompting analysts to cut estimates for the 2009/10 wheat harvest in Western Australia, the top grain exporting state with a 40 percent share, adding to global concerns about lower supplies. Source: Reuters

JP Morgan Rekomendasikan Overweight terhadap Bursa Indonesia

JP Morgan merekomendasikan peringkat overweight (layak beli) untuk Bursa Efek Indonesia, yang mengindikasikan adanya ekspektasi investor melanjutkan aksi beli saham-saham Indonesia.

Analis PT JP Morgan Securities Indonesia Aditya Srinath memperkirakan investor asing menempatkan lebih banyak data ke pasar modal Indonesia hingga tahun depan, yang akan menopang pertumbuhan indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG).

“Indeks telah melampaui target akhir tahun yang kami patok pada level 3.000. Terhentinya pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara-negara lain memicu dana-dana asing menggenangi bursa Indonesia, mendongkrak harga saham,” tuturnya dalam laporan riset yang dirilis hari ini.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, lanjutnya, berpotensi berlanjut terlihat dari tanda-tanda pemulihan sektor manufaktur yang menawarkan kunci baru pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Investasi sektor manufaktur tercatat tumbuh 38% pada 2007-2009. Sektor tersebut dinilai akan mendongkrak konsumsi dan daya beli masyarakat.

Meski demikian, lanjutnya, indeks kemungkinan hanya menguat antara 16%-20% sepanjang tahun ini, karena valuasinya dinilai terlalu menarik.

“Dengan rasio harga saham terhadap laba per saham [price to earning ratio/ PER] 12 bulan ke depan sebesar 14 kali, valuasi tidak lagi menarik,” paparnya.

Beberapa kunci penopang kenaikan bursa saham Indonesia adalah penguatan kurs rupiah, melemahnya inflasi, penurunan persepsi risiko investor, kuatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan suku bunga yang terjaga. Source: Bisnis

Prospektus Berau Coal

CLSA Naikkan Harga Saham SMRA

Analis CLSA Asia Pasific Markets Sarina Lesmina dalam laporannya soal PT Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA) menaikkan target harga dari Rp 1.150 menjadi Rp 1.250.

Revisi target harga SMRA dilakukan menyusul tingginya perkiraan angka penjualan yang akan dibukukan oleh SMRA.

Harga saham SMRA naik 5,3% atau Rp 50 menjadi Rp 1.000 dan sempat menyentuh Rp 1.010 atau posisi tertinggi dalam setahun terakhir.

JP Morgan Adu Otot dengan Deutsche di PGAS

Broker JP Morgan dan Deutsche Securities saling adu otot agar harga saham PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS) naik. JP Morgan membeli 12.841 lot PGAS di harga Rp 4.100, sedangkan Deutsche Securities menjual 11.145 lot di harga Rp 4.100.

Aksi kedua broker asing ini membuat saham PGAS naik Rp 25 menjadi Rp 4.100. Kenaikan harga ini terbantu oleh UBS Securities yang membeli 9.363 lot di harga Rp 4.099 tanpa menjual sama sekali.

Merrill Lynch juga membeli 2.329 lot di harga Rp 4.101 dan Credit Suisse membeli 2.515 di harga Rp 4.106.

         Broker                   Nasabah  Lot     Harga Beli                  Harga Jual
1
BK
J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA
106
12,841
4,100.00
1
23
4,100.00
12,818
12,864
2
AK
UBS SECURITIES INDONESIA
157
9,363
4,099.30
-
-
-
9,363
9,363
3
ML
MERRILL LYNCH INDONESIA
83
2,329
4,101.14
1
21
4,075.00
2,308
2,350
4
CS
CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA
117
2,515
4,106.78
15
432
4,092.19
2,083
2,947
5
ZP
KIM ENG SEKURITAS
37
1,794
4,100.00
7
117
4,105.34
1,677
1,911
78
DB
DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA
-
-
-
87
11,145
4,100.02
-11,145
11,145

Asing Kembali Buru Saham BJBR

Investor asing kembali memburu saham PT Bank Jabar Banten Tbk (BJBR) melalui broker UOB Kay Hian Securities. Broker ini membeli 24.530 lot saham BJBR di harga Rp 1.299 dengan hanya menjual 4.830 (Rp 1.287).

Akibat aksi ini, harga saham BJBR naik Rp 20 menjadi Rp 1.300.

Selain UOB, broker Phillip Securities juga membukukan net buying 7.537 lot setelah membeli 23.772 lot (Rp 1.297) dan menjual 16.235 (Rp 1.303).

Mandiri Sekuritas membeli 10.491 lot di harga Rp 1.297. (Lihat Tabel).

Satu-satunya broker penjual terbanyak saham ini adalah CIMB-GK Securities, yakni hanya 5.900 lot di harga Rp 1.299.
            Broker                Nasabah    Lot   Harga beli  Nasabah   Lot     Harga jual  Net      Total

1
AI
UOB KAY HIAN SECURITIES
119
24,530
1,299.79
49
4,830
1,287.02
19,700
29,360
2
KK
PHILLIP SECURITIES INDONESIA
333
23,772
1,297.36
123
16,235
1,303.52
7,537
40,007
3
CC
MANDIRI SEKURITAS
107
10,491
1,297.20
63
3,818
1,299.68
6,673
14,309
4
FS
AMCAPITAL INDONESIA
40
9,263
1,293.02
6
3,258
1,307.69
6,005
12,521
5
KZ
CLSA INDONESIA
37
4,344
1,301.86
-
-
-
4,344
4,344
86
YU
CIMB-GK SECURITIES INDONESIA
1
20
1,280.00
46
5,900
1,299.78
-5,880
5,920
 

Merrill Lynch Koleksi Saham BBCA

Merrill Lynch Indonesia bersama empat broker asing lainnya hari ini mengoleksi saham PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) tanpa menjual sama sekali.

Aksi beli paling banyak dilakukan oleh Merrill Lynch sebanyak 3.330 lot di harga Rp 6.083 tanpa menjual sama sekali. Macquarie Securities Indonesia juga menjual 3.244 lot di harga Rp 6.084.
Kim Eng Sekuritas turut membeli 2.814 lot di harga Rp 6.099 diikuti oleh Deutsche Securities sebanyak 325 di harga Rp 6.064 dan Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia 1.067 lot (Rp 6.103).

Harga saham BBCA naik Rp 150 menjadi Rp 6.150.
             Broker Beli          Nasabah    Lot     Harga                                  Net        Total

1
ML
MERRILL LYNCH INDONESIA
222
3,330
6,083.36
-
-
-
3,330
3,330
2
RX
MACQUARIE SECURITIES INDONESIA
84
3,244
6,084.71
2
14
6,100.00
3,230
3,258
3
ZP
KIM ENG SEKURITAS
49
2,814
6,099.96
17
181
6,079.01
2,633
2,995
4
DB
DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA
16
325
6,064.92
-
-
-
325
325
5
CS
CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA
106
1,067
6,103.84
44
799
6,056.82
268
1,866
 
 

Investor Asing Buru Saham BBRI

Investor asing melalui Trimegah Securities dan UBS Securities memburu saham PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI). Trimegah membeli 6.868 lot BBRI di harga Rp 9.485 dan hanya menjual 621 lot di harga Rp 9.477.

UBS Securities turut membeli 8.769 lot di harga Rp 9.479 dan tiga nasabahnya melepas 2.931 lot BBRI di harga Rp 9.434. CIMB-GK Securities Indonesia ikut membeli 3.105 lot di harga Rp 9.491 dengan hanya menjual 19 lot di harga Rp 9.513.
Akibat aksi beli ini, harga saham BBRI naik Rp 150 ke Rp 9.550. Satu-satunya broker asing yang membukukan penjualan terbanyak adalah Merrill Lynch Indonesia, yakni sebanyak 8.074 lot di harga Rp 9.490. ML hanya membeli 968 lot di harga Rp 9.483.
 

Deutsche Securities Jual INDF

Deutsche Securities Indonesia menjual 13.585 lot saham PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) di harga Rp 4.193 dan hanya membeli 1.400 lot (Rp 4.194). (Lihat berita sebelumnya: Asing Ramai-Ramai Jual INDF).

CLSA Indonesia juga menjual 6.242 lot di harga Rp 4.191 tanpa membeli sama sekali. Aksi jual Deutsche Securities dilakukan oleh investor asing.

Bahana Securities juga menjual 4.582 di harga Rp 4.207. Namun, harga saham INDF masih mampu bertahan di harga Rp 4.200 naik Rp 50 dari hari Jumat.

Aksi beli dilakukan oleh broker lokal, dimotori oleh Reliance Securities sebanyak 7.902 di harga Rp 4.201 sambil menjual 2.772 lot (Rp 4.169). JP Morgan juga membeli 19.824 lot di harga Rp 4.195 namun menjual 16.135 di harga Rp 4.193 sehingga membukukan net buying 3.689 lot.

Danpac Sekuritas memborong 3.253 lot INDF (Rp 4.207) tanpa menjual sama sekali. Samuel Sekuritas membeli 2.221 lot di harga Rp 4.167 dan hanya menjual 20 lot (Rp 4.200).