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Thursday, June 30, 2011

Vallar: China Investment Corp wants BUMI paid cash

London-listed Vallar , the controlling shareholder of Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter Bumi Resources , said sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp wanted its $1.9 billion loan to Bumi to be repaid in cash. 

"CIC wants cash, not swap its loan with CB (convertible bonds)," Vallar's CEO Ari Hudaya told Reuters. Source: Reuters

S&P withdraws Energi Mega Persada rtg at the company's request

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it had withdrawn its 'CCC+' corporate credit rating on Indonesia-based oil and gas producer PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk. (EMP) at the company's request. 

At the time of the withdrawal, the developing outlook on EMP reflected our view that the company's rating hinged on the resolution of existing covenant breaches.

We could have raised the rating if EMP refinanced existing bank loans, adhered to its operating budgets and capital expenditure, and improved its financial performance in line with our expectations of the ratio of adjusted debt to EBITDA of about 6.5x in 2011.

We expected a maximum one-notch improvement in the rating on EMP under this scenario, considering the company's vulnerable business risk profile and highly leveraged financial risk profile. Conversely, we could have downgraded EMP if its liquidity deteriorated due to refinancing delays and covenant breaches, leading the company to alter or restructure any of its debt instruments. We would have considered this a default, based on our criteria. Source: Reuters

Indonesia y/y June inflation seen just above 5 pct-stats bureau head

Indonesia's June inflation is expected to be slightly above 5 percent from a year ago, Rusman Heriawan, chief of the country's statistics bureau said on Tuesday, triggering expectations that the central bank will have room to hold rates again when meeting on July 12. 

Inflation had slowed to a seven-month low of 5.98 percent in May as food prices eased and rupiah appreciation helped curb imported inflation. Source: Reuters

Semen Gresik to raise capacity by 12 pct next yr

Semen Gresik , Indonesia's largest cement maker by output, aims to raise capacity to 23 million tonnes next year from 20.5 tonnes currently, CEO Dwi Sutjipto said on Tuesday. 

The company, which sees production this year at 19.5 million tonnes, plans to build a plant in Kalimantan worth $350 million, in addition to two planned factories in Sumatra and Java islands worth $350 million each.

It also plans to delay issuing $300 million of bonds to 2012 from an earlier plan in the first half this year, said Sutjipto. Source: Reuters

Indonesia may limit fuel subsidies this year

Indonesia's government may limit consumption of subsidised fuels this year to keep the budget deficit at a maximum of 2.1 percent of the GDP, vice finance minister Anny Ratnawati said on Tuesday. Source: Reuters

Japan Sumitomo, Mitsui sign Indonesia gas cooperation pact

Japan's Sumitomo and Mitsui have signed an agreement with Indonesia's BPMigas to develop gas projects from its marginal fields, the Southeast Asian country's oil and gas watchdog said on Tuesday. 

State-run Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) also said it had agreed with BPMigas to cooperate in fostering development of natural gas projects, in which the bank will finance the gas projects prepared by the two firms. 

"The two companies are willing to develop integrated gas projects, meaning that they are willing to develop upstream to downstream gas projects," Gde Pradnyana, BPMigas's spokesman told reporters. 

He added that Sumitomo and Mitsui would develop marginal fields and the output would be used for domestic demand. 

BPMigas said the two companies would soon start with the feasibility study to find out which fields have the potential to be developed.

JBIC said the deal would help secure stable energy supplies to Japan and create natural gas-related business opportunities for Japanese firms.

The cooperation agreement would benefit both Indonesia, whose domestic gas demand is increasing, and Japan, which is highly dependent on LNG supply from Indonesia, said Nobuyuki Higashi, JBIC's head for Asia and Oceania Finance Department.

Indonesia, the third-biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Japan, exported 12.8 million tonnes to Japan, the world's biggest LNG importer, last year. 

"The Japanese companies want to develop the marginal fields so Indonesia's total output will increase and all stakeholders will enjoy the benefit," Higashi added. Source: Reuters

Indonesia aims to start floating LNG production in 2016

Indonesia in the race to be first floating LNG producer
* Abadi's final investment decision could come in 2012
* Indonesia looks to develop floating projects in Natuna field

Indonesia aims to bring a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) project off the Timor Island online by 2016, two years earlier than expected, an official from the country's oil and gas regulator said on Wednesday. 

"The official date is 2018, but we are looking to accelerate that to 2016," Agoes Sapto Rahardjo, senior manager of LNG at BPMigas told Reuters on the sidelines of an industry conference in Singapore. 

An earlier start date puts Indonesia in race with Australia and Malaysia to be the first country to produce LNG from a floating plant. Rising energy consumption in the world's fastest-growing major economies China and India is prompting exporters to ramp up output to feed demand. 

Inpex Corp , Japan's top oil and gas developer, in December said it expected LNG production from the Abadi gas field it operates in the Masela block to start in 2018.
The project's final investment decision (FID) could come as early as next year, Rahardjo said. Inpex had set an end-2013 deadline for the FID. 

Indonesia approved an initial development plan for the Abadi plant at the end of last year. The floating LNG project will have a capacity of 2.5 million tonnes per year (tpy), lower than a previously proposed 4.5 million tonnes. 

"After evaluating the risks and the financing structure we decided to go with 2.5 million tonnes. If we see an opportunity later we might expand, but now we're focussed on this first project," said Rahardjo. 

Inpex has a 90 percent stake in the Masela block in Maluku province, while PT Energy Mega Persada , a unit of the Bakrie Group, holds the rest.

Indonesia is also looking at opportunities for developing floating LNG project in other fields such as the huge Natuna gas field, Rahardjo said. 

State oil and gas firm PT Pertamina signed agreements last year with Exxon Mobil , Total and Petronas as partners in the development of the Natuna.

The gas industry has its hopes pinned on floating LNG production to unlock stranded resources in far-flung fields as demand for the fuel soars.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) expects to start production at its 3.6 million tpy Prelude plant offshore Australia, the first floating LNG project to be sanctioned, by 2017. Source: Reuters

Bumi listing brings Indonesia's Bakries to London

* Bumi Plc, formerly Vallar, lists in London

* Bakrie family holds 55 percent stake
* Transparency key to easing governance worries, experts say

Shares in Bumi Plc , the mining venture founded by Nat Rothschild, listed under their new name on Tuesday, giving Indonesia's Bakrie family a foothold in London and rekindling debate on the governance of premium-listed firms. 

The politically connected Bakries have 55 percent of Bumi after a complex deal last year that transformed what was then Vallar, a shell set up by Rothschild, into a sizeable player with stakes in two Indonesian coal firms. 

The Bakries have only 29.9 percent of voting rights, a limit intended to protect minority investors. But the potential catapulting of one of Indonesia's best-known political and financial families into the bluechip FTSE 100 index has revived debate over corporate governance safeguards in the sector, particularly in resources firms with large majority owners. 

Indra Bakrie, Bumi's chairman, is the younger brother of tycoon Aburizal Bakrie, chairman of the Golkar party, part of Indonesia's ruling coalition. 

Though not uncommon elsewhere, hefty founder-shareholders are unusual in U.S. and UK markets where ownership tends to be dispersed, and miners like Fresnillo , Antofagasta and Vedanta -- all majority owned by their founding families -- have been viewed with caution by some institutional investors. 

In large part, opaque communications are to blame, and both fund managers and governance experts agree transparency will be key to the success of companies wanting to use the London market to cash in on the commodities boom. 

"You just have to come clean," the head of UK equities at a British fund management house said. 

"If you are in this part of the world, that is one of the major issues you are going to face. A lot of the time (investors) don't know whether something is happening or not until afterwards, which is another reason why a lot of (managers) won't go into these things." 

Potential pitfalls came to the fore earlier this month with a messy power struggle between the board and major shareholders at Kazakh miner ENRC . The spat has left the company bruised, shares battered, and saw two high-profile independent directors ousted.

COMING CLEAN
The solution for Bumi, governance experts agree, will be remaining as open as it was in its listing prospectus, which detailed fraud risks and allegations of graft among risks to investors over 20 pages. 

In one instance, it detailed allegations by an Indonesian tax official at the centre of a high profile corruption trial who said subsidiaries Bumi Resources, KPC and Arutmin paid him $3 million to settle tax disputes. 

Bumi said Indonesian police had found insufficient evidence to file charges against Bumi Resources, and internal investigations found the allegations "groundless".
But Tuesday's listing of Indonesia-focused Bumi could also serve to redress a corporate governance balance that often tips in favour of institutional investors. 

"We have to start being less suspicious about these new entrants to the market who are not playing the normal game of investing a small stake and want to buy a larger stake -- we have to recognise that has advantages," Roger Barker, head of corporate governance at the Institute of Directors, said. 

"Of course there may be an impact on the share price, a risk premium, but one has to decide - perhaps that is the price worth paying for the benefit of a long-term shareholder."
Rothschild, Bumi's co-chairman alongside chairman Indra Bakrie, expects Bumi to move into the FTSE 100 index later in the year, but there are still high-profile doubters. 

"It never occurred to those of us who helped launch the FTSE 100 index 27 years ago that one day it would be providing a cloak of respectability and lots of passive investors for companies that challenge the canons of corporate governance such as Vedanta, ENRC, Kazakhmys, Fresnillo," Richard Lambert, former head of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said. 

"Perhaps it is time for those responsible for the index to rethink its purpose," he wrote in a column in Tuesday's Financial Times focusing on Rothschild's second commodities venture, oil and gas shell Vallares. 

Rothschild joined forces with the Bakrie Group last year for Vallar to take a 25 percent stake in coal miner Bumi Resources and a 75 percent stake in Berau Coal Energy . 

Bumi Plc has since said it aims to increase its stake in Bumi Resources, Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, to up to 50 percent. On Monday it said the stake stood at just under 29 percent after a deal with shareholders. Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 30 Juni 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Kamis, 30 Juni 2011.
BUY: (ADRO, ENRG, UNSP, TLKM)
  • Keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) menyebabkan IHSG bergerak dalam kisaran sideways (trend samping) namun masih optimistis bahwa proses untuk break all time high di 3.880 hanya tinggal menunggu waktu. 
  • IHSG close (28-06) 3.830.270 (+16.84/+0.44%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)
  • Support: 3.810-3.770, Resistance: 3,880-3.950
 
Stock picks:
1.     Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY) (Target Rp 2.550) (Close 28/06 Rp 2.400)
  • Selain optimisme pasar bahwa produksi batubara akan kembali normal sesuai target di Q2 2011 dengan musim panas ini, secara technical ADRO memang sedang proses perbaikan tren dari sideways ke positif dan target breakout terlihat di Rp 2.550.
  • Entry (1) Rp.2.375, Entry (2) Rp.2.325, Cut loss point: Rp.2.275
   
2.    Energy Mega persada (ENRG) (BUY): (Target: Rp 215-230) (Close 28/06 Rp 200)
  • Walaupun saham BUMI melorot cukup tajam Jumat lalu, namun ENRG tetap dipertahankan di atas level psikologis Rp.200 sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa "smart money" memang mengalir ke emiten tersebut untuk antisipasi earnings recovery story yang dapat terlihat di laporan keuangan Q2 2011.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 198, Entry (2) Rp 194, Cut loss point: Rp 185
 
3.   Bakrie Sumatra (UNSP) (BUY): (Target: Rp 450) (Close 28/06 Rp 420)
  • Selain valuasi PER 2011 (7x) yang termurah di sektor CPO, tren naik di UNSP masih tetap utuh (pattern higher low masih terbentuk utuh) walaupun telah terjadi koreksi selama 5 hari berturut-turut sehingga rekomen akumulasi untuk technical rebound.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 420, Entry (2) Rp 405, Cut loss point: Rp 395
 
4.       Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) (BUY): (Target: Rp 7.450) (Close 28/06 Rp 7.250)
  • Program buy back saham oleh pemerintah di big cap index dengan valuasi PER 2011 termurah (9x) dapat menahan downside bila terjadi koreksi sehingga rekomen akumulasi untuk proses penutupan price gap atas di Rp 7.400 yang sempat tertunda ini.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 7.150, Entry (2) Rp 6.950, Cut loss point: Rp 6.850
 
 
Dibuat oleh: 
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 30 Juni 2011

Berikut rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Kamis, 30 Juni 2011.
1. E-Trading Securities 
IHSG pada perdagangan Selasa (28/6) naik 16,8 poin (0,44%) ke level 3.830, seiring membaiknya persepsi investor terhadap krisis utang Yunani. Net buying asing mencapai Rp 185 miliar. Secara teknikal, IHSG berhasil menguat dengan indikator Stochastic membentuk deathcross di area overbought. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.809-3.854. Perhatikan CPIN, SMGR, dan INTA.

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas
Pada perdagangan Kamis (30/6), secara teknikal, indeks diperkirakan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan menguat pada kisaran 3.816-3.845. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan TLKM, CPIN, EXCL, BBNI

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani
IHSG diprediksi berfluktuasi dengan potensi profit taking pada kisaran 3.812-3.844. Ini terlihat dari beberapa indikator teknikal. Hold ADRO, PTBA, SMGR, sell BBCA, BDMN, ISAT dan SMCB.

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, 28 Juni 2011

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, Selasa 28 Juni 2011.
Kode Saham                     Volume                        Jual                   Beli
ADHI 1,797,500 0 255,500
ADMG 9,047,000 42,000 249,500
ADRO 34,418,000 12,352,000 30,815,000
AISA 3,390,000 0 80,500
ALMI 2,534,000 0 200,000
ANTM 5,251,000 154,000 952,000
APLI 28,708,500 0 150,000
APLN 5,044,000 1,007,500 1,340,000
ASGR 1,192,000 0 425,000
ASIA 1,320,500 0 150,000
ASRI 10,921,500 0 1,800,000
AUTO 307,500 0 15,000
BBCA 5,788,000 1,426,500 2,291,000
BBNI 9,291,500 3,392,500 7,370,000
BBRI 22,243,500 12,335,000 14,695,000
BBTN 5,308,500 2,491,000 2,812,000
BIPI 145,540,000 25,000 11,767,000
BISI 6,237,000 22,000 1,243,500
BJBR 5,989,000 18,000 1,967,500
BKSL 24,616,500 0 2,801,500
BMRI 11,111,000 4,136,500 7,330,500
BMTR 15,092,500 5,000 3,529,000
BNBA 2,648,500 40,000 280,500
BNBR 190,858,000 0 1,000,000
BNGA 1,371,000 0 270,000
BORN 15,141,000 4,203,000 4,707,500
BRAU 3,349,000 250,000 1,000,000
BRMS 14,106,500 0 6,000,000
BTEL 5,292,500 0 2,657,000
BVIC 2,976,000 0 250,000
BWPT 8,124,500 0 2,334,000
BYAN 296,000 187,000 236,500
CFIN 13,829,500 2,290,500 4,115,500
CPIN 77,507,000 3,386,500 46,177,500
CTRS 736,500 200,000 735,000
ELSA 1,620,500 0 329,500
ELTY 89,753,000 75,000 17,251,500
EMDE 3,879,500 0 2,000,000
EMTK 145,000 0 105,000
ENRG 212,704,000 12,075,000 100,571,500
EPMT 399,000 0 225,000
EXCL 3,800,500 132,500 2,807,500
GGRM 1,328,000 260,500 819,500
GIAA 4,102,500 0 514,000
GJTL 3,015,500 120,000 1,304,500
GZCO 5,188,500 0 1,355,000
HEXA 139,000 0 123,000
HRUM 1,838,000 52,000 1,010,000
INCO 1,828,000 114,000 582,500
INDF 5,999,000 327,500 3,087,500
INTA 65,410,000 1,505,500 4,010,000
INTP 575,500 176,500 397,500
ISAT 4,977,000 538,500 2,196,000
JPFA 4,595,000 128,500 537,500
JSMR 3,215,000 266,500 1,028,000
JTPE 9,711,000 0 315,000
KAEF 73,919,500 20,000 3,515,000
KIJA 15,172,500 4,000,000 5,050,000
KRAS 4,394,500 0 888,500
LTLS 2,857,000 0 1,138,000
MAIN 3,891,000 0 609,000
MBTO 3,162,000 0 925,000
MDRN 459,500 0 347,000
MEDC 1,418,000 0 668,000
META 528,000 0 250,500
MICE 41,555,000 602,500 642,500
MNCN 7,796,500 3,500,000 3,627,000
MYRX 6,022,500 0 1,369,000
PBRX 22,855,500 0 4,557,500
POLY 5,314,000 0 450,000
PTPP 967,500 0 163,500
PTSP 106,500 0 100,000
PWON 13,728,000 1,000 1,152,500
RALS 1,537,000 320,000 621,500
RICY 13,080,500 0 250,000
SIMP 21,840,500 5,000,000 7,933,500
SMGR 6,025,000 1,066,000 4,647,000
TBIG 612,000 0 147,500
TBLA 5,557,000 0 1,705,000
TINS 2,587,000 0 777,500
TLKM 12,014,000 3,759,000 6,576,000
TRST 28,336,000 0 145,000
TSPC 250,500 0 100,000
TURI 8,963,500 500,000 937,000
UNTR 2,910,000 429,000 1,495,500
WIKA 1,347,000 0 604,000