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Monday, January 24, 2011

Indonesia May Raise Cocoa Bean Export Tax in February

Indonesia may raise the export tax on cocoa beans in February due to the increasing price of the commodity, said Zulhefi Sikumbang, Chairman of the Indonesian Cocoa Association.
“We estimate export tax will be increased, but we don’t know how much,” Sikumbang said by phone from Makassar, capital of South Sulawesi province, today. 

The price of the chocolate ingredient increased about $100 per to $150 a ton last week and is estimated to be higher as world supply will be short after Ivory Coast banned exports for a month, Sikumbang said. 

“Indonesian exporters can’t control the price, so we go along with international price movements,” Sikumbang said. 

Indonesia kept the tax rate on cocoa bean exports for January at 10 percent, while raising the base price to $2,593 a ton, Deddy Saleh, director general for foreign trade, said Dec 23. The government sets a base price to determine the amount of tax to impose. 

The duty exporters pay on January shipments is $259 a ton, and may be increased for February and the following month to $300 a ton, as the average price for February shipments is at $3,200 a ton, according to Sikumbang. 

The cocoa association, known as Askindo, has asked the government to set a fixed duty on exports instead of changing it every month. The government announces the tax rate and base price between the 20th and 25th day of each month. 

The price of cocoa products has been increasing by about 8 percent a week due to the rising price of beans, said Piter Jasman, chairman of the Indonesian Cocoa Producers Association. 

“Production cost is still relatively stable and cheaper compared with cocoa-product manufacturers in Europe,” Jasman said by mobile-phone text message today. 

Cocoa butter has risen to $5,250 a ton from $4,800 a ton a week ago, and cocoa powder has increased to $4,500 a ton from $4,200 a ton a week ago, Jasman said. Source: Bloomberg

Palladium, Copper, Tin may be top metals in 2011

Palladium may fare better than other precious metals in 2011 due to continued strength in the automobile sector in emerging-market nations at a time of tight supplies, said “The Metals Monthly” report released by ABN AMRO Bank and VM Group Thursday.

Analysts described copper and tin as the base metals that may fare best.

However, while they that while sentiment for metals is bullish for now, there are potential headwinds that could derail expected rises in both base and precious metals. In particular, analysts cited any strength in the U.S. dollar due to economic recovery, potential interest-rate hikes, euro-zone debt distress and attempts to mitigate inflation in China.

VM Group looks for palladium to average $798 an ounce in 2011, compared to an average of $525 for 2010. The metal rose strongly last year due to growth in sales of new vehicles in China, India and other parts of the emerging world. The main industrial use for palladium is auto catalysts.

“There appears little reason for this growth to slow appreciably in 2011 and thus the prospects for the palladium price in 2011 are just as compelling,” the report said. “With auto-catalyst demand therefore likely to grow strongly in 2011, a small market deficit will develop as supply fails to keep pace. This will be compounded by dwindling sales from Russian state stockpiles.”

For other precious metals, the average 2011 forecasts are gold, $1,457 ($1,225 in 2010); silver, $29.63 ($20.13); and platinum, $1,783 ($1,609).

VM Group looks for the average gold price to rise but also anticipates a “bumpy ride” in which investment demand will be critical. Analysts look for the “near-zero interest-rate environment” to persist in the U.S. and Europe for much of the year, which should benefit gold as well as equities.

“The rise in the Chinese and Indian middle class will continue to support demand, while political uncertainty in the Middle East and North Korea and potential currency conflicts might lead to price spikes,” the report said. “There will–unsurprisingly–also be periods where euro-zone debt issues resurface, momentarily increasing gold’s allure as a hedge against sovereign risk.”

However, an offsetting factor would be a stronger dollar as signs of a U.S. economic recovery become more evident, VM Group said. The end to major dehedging by gold miners also takes away a source of buying, and government austerity measures in some nations could have the impact of suppressing jewelry demand.

Three-months copper is forecast by VM Group to average $9,150 a metric ton in 2011, compared to $7,537 last year. Tin is forecast to average $26,523 a metric ton in 2011, up from $20,401 for 2010.

“Copper looks likely to be the star performer of the base metals in 2011,” said the report, citing sentiment that “demand growth in China will be coupled with greater appetite in the U.S. and elsewhere.” Meanwhile, supply has not kept pace with demand, which should mean a market deficit of some 450,000 metric tons, VM Group said.

Analysts also describe themselves as bullish on tin, anticipating further supply disruptions but demand from the electronics sector to grow, with a potential deficit of 20,000 tons.

Other 2011 base metals forecasts include nickel, $23,625 (compared to $21,844 for 2010); zinc, $2,348 ($2,187); aluminum, $2,331 ($2,176); and lead, $2,329 ($2,190). Source: Commodityonline

Mitsubishi decides on $2.8 bln Indonesia LNG project

Mitsubishi Corp (8058.T) said on Monday it will invest in a liquefied gas development project worth $2.8 billion in Indonesia via a joint venture with companies including Korea Gas Corp (036460.KS). Source: Reuters

Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh AAA Sekuritas

Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh AAA Sekuritas. Menurut AAA Sekuritas, manajemen BBRI fokus pada upaya meningkatkan ROE dan bukan pada NIM. Berdasarkan perhitungan, kenaikan suku bunga pada 2011 hanya memberikan efek minimum terhadap peningkatan laba bersih yakni hanya sebesar 0,5% dibanding bank-bank lain sebesar 1,3%.


Berdasarkan analisa AAA Sekuritas, rencana penurunan bunga kredit mikro yang berujung pada pemangkasan NIM sejak kuartal I 2005 tidak membuat ROE BBRI turun. Bahkan, ROE bank ini tetap stabil di level rata-rata 33% (tertinggi kedua setelah BTPN).


Saat ini, BBRI diperdagangkan pada valuasi 2,8 kali PBV, sehingga target harga setelah stock split adalah Rp 6.500.
 
Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia Oleh AAA Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas

Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas. Menurut Kim Eng, target penyaluran kredit BRI pada 2011 diproyeksikan tumbuh 20-22% atau melampaui tahun 2010. Kualitas kredit juga masih bagus dan tidak menjadi hal yang merisaukan bagi BBRI. Dalam sejarahnya, Kim Eng melihat rasio kredit bermasalah (non performing loan/NPL) akan tinggi pada kuartal III sebelum dilakukan hapus buku pada kuartal empat.

Kim Eng juga menyesuaikan perhitungan earning per share (EPS) BBRI untuk tahun ini turun sebesar 4,3% menjadi Rp 443,7. Namun meski turun, angka EPS ini masih mencerminkan kenaikan 13,4% dari EPS 2010 yang diproyeksikan sebesar Rp 391,2.

Menurut Kim Eng, saham BBRI sangat aktraktif. Dengan perolehan ROE 28,3% masih merupakan yang tertinggi di industri perbankan pada 2011. Rekomendasi beli dengan target harga Rp 6.200 pasca stock split.



Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Riset Kalbe Farma oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset Kalbe Farma oleh NISP Sekuritas. Pendapatan Kalbe Farma diproyeksikan tahun ini tumbuh 13,6% menjadi Rp 11,69 triliun dan laba bersih tumbuh 25,4% menjadi Rp 1,6 triliun. DDivisi farmasi dan nutrisi masih menjadi kontributor utama bagi pendapatan Kalbe Farma.

NISP Sekuritas memasang target harga Rp 3.350.


Riset Kalbe Farma Oleh NISP Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Riset IPO Garuda Indonesia oleh Valbury Sekuritas

Riset IPO Garuda Indonesia oleh Valbury Sekuritas.

Riset IPO Garuda Indonesia oleh Valbury Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Riset Astra International oleh Valbury Sekuritas

Riset Astra International oleh Valbury Sekuritas. Target harga hingga akhir 2011 diproyeksikan sebesar Rp 63.000. Valbury melihat pada 2011 akan ada kenaikan harga-harga komoditas seperti batubara dan CPO yang akan menguntungkan ASII karena memiliki dua anak perusahaan, yakni Astra Agro Lestari (AALI di bisnis CPO) dan United Tractor (UNTR di bidang batubara). Selain itu, ekspansi strategis ASII di lini alat berat, kontraktor pertambangan, perkebunan, otomotif, akan menjadi katalis harga saham ASII pada 2011.

Namun, outlook bisnis 2011 juga akan dipengaruhi berbagai tantangan, seperti penerapan kenaikan tarif pajak kendaraan bermotor, rencana pembatasan penggunaan BBM bersubsidi, tekanan inflasi, dan proyeksi kenaikan suku bunga.

Riset Astra International oleh Valbury Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 24 Januari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Senin, 24 Januari 2011, dengan rekomendasi beli Bumi Resources (BUMI), Adaro Energy (ADRO), Indo Tambang Megaraya (ITMG), dan Bank Mandiri (BMRI).
BUY: (BUMI, ADRO, ITMG, BMRI)
  • Menguatnya rupiah dari 9,100 ke 9,060 di saat IHSG terjun bebas hingga 140 pt (kemudian rebound menutup -74pt) menandakan bahwa capital outflow tidak terjadi dan potensi technical rebound bisa terjadi Senin ini.
  • Rekomen melirik sektor batubara yang memiliki potensi EPS growth projection paling aggressive di 2010 (45%), dan emiten perbankan big cap selektif.
  • IHSG close (24-01) 3,379.54 (-74.340/+2.16%) (Val.Rp.4.7T)
  • Support: 3.320-3.280-3.200, Resistance: 3.450-3.550-3.610
 
Stock picks:
 
1.    Bumi Resources (BUMI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 3.200) (close 24/01 Rp 3.000)
  • Beberapa sentimen positif dari restrukturisasi utang akibat aliansi dengan Vallar-Rothschild, sensitivas tinggi terhadap kenaikan harga batubara dan valuasi PER/PBV termurah di sektornya membuat harga BUMI tidak tertekan signifikan selama koreksi Jumat sehingga berhasil ditutup di atas level psikologis Rp 3.000.
  • Rally dapat berlanjut rekomen akumulasi
  • Entry: (1) Rp 2.950, Entry (2) Rp 2.825, cut-loss point: Rp 2.775
 
2.    Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.600) (Close 24/02 Rp 2.350)
  • Kapasitas produksi terbesar kedua setelah BUMI untuk mengikuti tren kenaikan batubara (ASP- average selling price) & proyeksi EPS yang optimistis pada 2011 dapat offset sentiment negative dari penurunan produksi di Q4 2010 akibat cuaca buruk yang kelihatannya efek negatifnya sudah tercermin dalam koreksi harga.
  • Entry (1) Rp 2.350, (2) Rp 2.250, Cut loss point: Rp 2.150
 
3.   Indo Tambang Raya (ITMG) (BUY): (Target: Rp 50.510) (Close 24/07 Rp 47.900)
  • Spesialisasi khusus di high calorie coal yang biasanya dipakai untuk industry baja membuatnya immune terhadap peraturan pemerintah mengenai pembatasan export low calorie coal.
  • Koreksi yang terjadi dapat digunakan sebagai kesempatan akumulasi karena bila dilihat dari sisi fundamental seharusnya emiten ini diperdagangkan di valuasi yang lebih tinggi (premium).
  • Entry: (1) Rp 46.500, Entry: (2) 45.000, Cut loss point: Rp 43.000
 
4.   Bank Mandiri (BMRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 5.950) (close 24/01 Rp 5.600)
  • Valuasi PER/PBV 2011F yang menarik (11.5x/2.4x), keadaan oversold pasca koreksi seminggu lebih dengan divergensi di stochastic buy signal membuatnya menjadi trading pilihan tepat untuk momentum player.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 5.500, Exit (2) Rp 5.300, Cut-loss point: Rp 5.100
 
Dibuat oleh: 
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)