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Thursday, May 26, 2011

Kim Eng Considering Upgrading Astra's Target Price

PT Kim Eng Securities is considering upgrading Astra’s share-price estimate after Toyota said yesterday it will expand production capacity at its Indonesian plant, the brokerage said in a note today. Kim Eng rates Astra “hold” with a stock estimate of 55,000 rupiah.

Coal India in talks to buy Golden Energy Mines to $1 bln-sources

Coal India, the world's largest coal miner, is in advanced talks to buy up to 40 percent stake in Indonesia's Golden Energy Mines in a deal valued at between $750 million and $1 billion, three sources with direct knowledge said on Thursday. 

Golden Energy is a coal mining subsidiary of energy and infrastructure firm Dian Swastatika Sentosa , and is estimated to have 400 million tonnes of reserves. 

It owns 10 coal mining areas across Indonesia including in Sumatra and Kalimantan islands in the world's top exporting nation of coal for power plants. 

State-run Coal India is half way through the due diligence for the asset and a final bid will be submitted by the end of June, two of the sources told Reuters. 

United Tractors , Indonesia's biggest heavy equipment provider controlled by the country's largest listed firm Astra International , has withdrawn from the bidding process for the asset, sources said. 

The sources declined to be named as the information is not public. Officials at Coal India, headquartered in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata, and Dian Swastatika in Jakarta could not be reached for a comment. 

Indian coal, steel and power firms have been scouting for coal assets overseas to feed power plants at home. The energy-hungry nation aims to halve a near-14 percent peak-hour power deficit within two years. Source: Reuters

Coal India in talks to buy Indonesia mines

Coal India, the world's largest coal producer, may submit a final bid by the end of June to buy a stake in Indonesia's PT Golden Energy Mines, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said. 

The state-run coal monopoly is currently doing due diligence of Golden Energy, said the person who declined to be named.

"It is not a controlling stake," the person said, and didn't provide more details. He said Coal India is yet to decide on a valuation for the stake it plans to purchase as a proposal is yet to be placed before the company's board. 

"There are various proposals in countries like Indonesia, Australia, U.S., which Coal India keeps on evaluating," the person said. 

Coal India, which contributes to more than 80% of the country's coal needs, faces several obstacles in augmenting its output such as delays in environment clearances. To meet rising demand from consumers, mainly in the power sector, the company has been scouting for mining assets overseas. More than half of India's power-generation capacity of 174.36 gigawatts is based on thermal coal. The country aims to add 163 GW of capacity in the decade through March 2017 and a major portion of the new capacity would also be dependent on fossil fuel. 

India, the world's second-fastest growing economy in the world, faces shortage of coal as environmental concerns have delayed approvals for local mining, hurting production. The country is facing a shortage of 142 million tons of coal for the current year. Local production of coal is expected to be 554 million tons against demand for 696 million tons, according to government estimates. 

PT Golden Energy is a wholly owned unit of Jakarta-based Dian Swastatika Sentosa, and is estimated to have a total coal resource of 1.2 billion tons across its 10 mining concessions in regions including South Sumatra, Central Kalimantan and South Kalimantan. 

Golden Energy exports coal to countries such as India and China and its client base includes Sumitomo Corp., Glencore and Ace Trading, according to its Web site. The company's current production capacity stands at about 10 million tons. 

The Indian company also is working on plans to import coal under long-term arrangement from global companies.
"If this deal is done, Coal India will get assured supply of coal to India from the Indonesian company," the person said.

The person also said Coal India is still evaluating a proposal to buy up to a 15% stake in U.S.-based coal producer Peabody Energy Corp.'s Wilkie Creek mine in Australia. Another person had said, previously, Coal India may buy the stake in the Australian mine for $120 million. Source: Wall Street Journal

Saham yang Dominan Dibeli Asing per 25 Mei 2011

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing per Rabu, 25 Mei 2011.
Kode Saham            Volume                       Jual                   Beli

ADMG                      18.329.500                          00                     927.500
ADRO62.652.000   16.321.50024.362.000
AMRT                           546.500                          00                      165.500
APLN                          4.602.000                          00                   2.023.500
ASGR                        11.513.500                   55.000                   1.274.500
BBKP                           8.309.500                    52.000                  4.052.000
BBNI                         22.089.500               7.713.500                  8.699.000
BHIT                         26.602.500                           00                  2.195.000
BKSL                        32.869.000                  151.000                     521.500
BNBR                     759.608.500             28.090.500                43.898.000
BORN                      68.640.500                1.268.000                30.250.500
BRPT                         2.886.500                   713.500                  1.397.500
BTEL                       20.099.000                   667.500                  7.057.500
BYAN                             133.500                            00                     110.000
CSAP                        23.876.500                           00                   2.275.000
DAVO                       34.581.000               1.750.000                   5.000.000
ENRG                    756.724.500                8.891.500                17.244.500
EXCL                         5.233.000                 1.745.000                 2.944.500
GGRM                          264.500                      97.000                    152.500
GIAA25.788.50000976.000
IDKM                       15.814.500                            00               11.070.000
INCO                          2.744.000                    686.500                1.201.000
INDY                        15.093.500                 1.165.500                5.833.500
IPOL                        150.817.000                            00                7.864.500
ISAT808.00068.000599.500
LPPS                          12.410.000                            00                1.000.000
MITI                            1.493.500                            00                1.062.000
MNCN                       15.997.000                4.681.000              10.393.500
PGAS                          19.213.500                4.974.000             13.900.000



PNIN                           29.876.500                           00                5.000.000
PWON                           7.269.000                  117.000                1.176.000
SMGR                           9.409.000                  469.500                5.170.500
TRUB                           84.446.500                           00                3.188.500
UNSP                           90.166.500                 544.000                 4.443.000













Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 26 Mei 2011


Berikut rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Kamis, 26 Mei 2011.
1. E-Trading Securities
IHSG kemarin anjlok 5,8 poin (-0,15%) ke level 3.780. Investor asing membukukan net selling Rp 270 miliar. Secara teknikal, indeks kemarin melemah dengan MA 5 dan MA 20 berpotensi membentuk deathcross. IHSG diperkirakan masih bisa rebound selama tidak break dari support channeling di level 3.760. Pergerakan indeks hari ini berada di kisaran 3.760–3.805. Cermati ASII, ASGR, dan INDY. 

2. Indo Premier Securities
Bursa Asia kemarin mayoritas ditutup turun dan flat, karena belum ada kemajuan dari krisis utang Eropa. Sementara pergerakan bursa Eropa dan New York belum berubah, seiring turunnya harga minyak mentah. IHSG hari ini berpotensi bergerak di kisaran 3.750-3800. ITMG, PTBA, INDF, BORN, BUMI menjadi saham pilihan kami.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 26 Mei 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Kamis, 26 Mei 2011.
BUY: (ADRO, GJTL, ASII, ITMG)

  • Walaupun terimbas efek negatif regional, namun IHSG masih bisa bertahan pada level terendah yang sama sehingga terlihat adanya upaya akumulasi untuk proses lanjutan kenaikan berikutnya.


  • IHSG close (25-05) 3.772.633(-13.365/-0.350%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

  • Support: 3.770-3.700, Resistance: 3,870-3.950

 

Stock picks:

1.     Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY) (Target Rp 2.450) (close 25/05 Rp 2.350)

  • Selain pembagian dividen, outlook harga batubara yang optimistis akibat permintaan meningkat dari China dan Jepang serta membaiknya produksi memasuki musim kemarau di Q2 2011 menjadi katalis positif untuk meneruskan upaya membentuk new high lagi di atas.


  • Entry (1) Rp 2.350, Entry (2) Rp 2.275, Cut loss point: Rp 2.225


 

2.    Gajah Tunggal (GJTL) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.350) (Close 25/05: Rp 3.050)

  • Pasca koreksi sebesar 10% untuk mengurangi efek jenuh beli (overbought), saham consumer automotive yang bergerak di bidang produksi ban dengan valuasi 2011 PER 8x cukup menarik untuk masuk kedalam watch list.


  • Kelihataanya bila ASII mengalami rebound maka GJTL akan mengikutinya karena bergerak dalam sektor yang sama


  • Exit (1) Rp 3.050, Entry (2) Rp 2.975, Cut-loss point: Rp 2.875

 

3.   Indo Tambang Raya (ITMG) (BUY): (Target: Rp 47.900) (Close 25/05 Rp 46.700)

  • Pasca pullback untuk membentuk pola konsolidasi dalam proses perbaikan tren sudah selesai dan kelihatannya saham ini menuju target berikutnya di Rp 47.950.


  • Memasuki musim kemarau, produksi ITMG mulai pulih sehingga kinerja profit yang naik di Q1 (hal ini membuat valuasi PER 2011 turun dari 28x ke 15x) dapat terulang untuk Q2.



  • Entry: (1) Rp 46.400, Entry (2) Rp 46.100, Cut loss point: Rp 45.600

 




4.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 59.700) (Close 25/05 Rp 57.760)

  • Koreksi sebesar 7% dari high di Rp 62.000 kelihatannya sudah mulai tertahan karena tidak ada pembentukan new low baru sehingga tinggal menunggu waktu untuk terjadinya upward retracement paling tidak ke moving average 5 dan 10 hari (Rp 59.250-59.650)


  • Entry: (1) Rp 57.600, Entry (2) Rp 57.200, Cut loss point: Rp 56.800


 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)