Riset Indo Tambangraya Megah oleh AAA Sekuritas

Riset Indo Tambangraya Megah oleh AAA Sekuritas. Nilai wajar saham emiten ini adalah Rp 55.800. Target harga ini naik dari asumsi semula Rp 41.500 yang mencerminkan PE 12,4 kali untuk tahun buku 2011.
 
Riset Indo Tambang Oleh AAA Sekuritas

Coal Imports May Rise 78% to China, India, Drive Up Prices: Energy Markets

China and India may increase imports of coal by 78 percent to 337 million metric tons next year, further driving up prices from the highest in two years and diverting supplies from Europe to Asia. 

China may buy 233 million tons of the fuel for its power plants next year, up from 143 million in 2010, Citigroup Inc. said in a Nov. 29 report. India faces a shortfall of 104 million tons in the 12 months ending March 2012, mjunction Services Ltd., a Kolkata-based commodity trader, said in a note on Dec. 6, citing Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal. 

Asia’s two fastest-growing major economies are burning more of the fuel as economic expansion raises demand for electricity. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that China’s gross domestic product will next year expand 9.6 percent and India 8.4 percent. China is adding about 100 gigawatts of coal-fired generators this year, more than the total capacity of U.K., according to official data. 

“All the indications are for increased demand in 2011,” Andrew Harrington, an analyst at Patersons Securities Ltd. in Sydney, said in a Dec. 9 interview. “China has become much more important especially because of the expectations that they will be unable to meet their own needs from domestic supply.” 

China’s appetite for the commodity sent benchmark domestic prices at the port of Qinhuangdao to a two-year high of $129 a ton for the week ended Nov. 26, according to data from IHS McCloskey, a Petersfield, U.K.-based researcher. 

Power-station fuel at the Australian port of Newcastle, the world’s biggest coal-export harbor, and South Africa’s Richards Bay climbed to the highest since October 2008, according to data compiled by IHS McCloskey on Bloomberg. 

Supply ‘Constrained’

“The thermal-coal market will remain tight as strong demand from emerging markets, particularly China and India, drives record levels of imports,” said Daniel Brebner and Xiao Fu, London-based analysts at Deutsche Bank AG. “Supply is anticipated to be constrained in key producing regions such as China, Indonesia and Australia.” 

Prices at Australia’s Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asia, rose to $109.80 a ton in the week ended Dec. 3, according to IHS McCloskey. 

Export prices at Richards Bay Coal Terminal gained $3.80, or 3.7 percent, to an average $107.11 a ton in the week to Dec. 3, IHS McCloskey data showed. Delivered prices to Europe jumped 8.2 percent, the most since April 30, to $117.53 as China and India competed for South African supplies. 

Indonesia Prices

The Indonesian government raised the reference price for coal sales in December by 8.3 percent from a month earlier, the steepest gain since it was introduced in February, the energy ministry said Dec. 8. The price benchmark for the fuel with a gross energy value of 6,322 kilocalories a kilogram increased to $103.41 a ton this month, according to the Directorate General of Coal and Minerals. 

Coal use in Asia climbed 6.4 percent last year, more than a 0.8 percent increase in oil consumption, according to BP Plc. 

Prices have also surged because of supply disruptions from heavy rain and flooding at mines in Indonesia, Colombia and Australia, while South Africa’s export growth has been crimped by a lack of rail capacity. 

Xstrata Plc, the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, has declared force majeure on some Australian shipments on Dec. 7 because of flooding of mines. PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, revised down its coal output target by 6 percent this year as heavy rains hampered mining, Director Dileep Srivastava said Nov. 11. 

Such disruptions have prompted South Africa and Colombia to divert supplies from traditional markets in Europe to higher- paying Asia. 

South Africa’s Share

South Africa accounted for about 30 percent of India’s thermal coal imports this year, according to ministry data. Shipments in the first nine months of this year increased 16 percent to 15.2 million tons, while China’s purchases surged to 5.1 million tons until October compared with 1.52 million tons it imported for the entire 2009, according to mjunction Services, which is backed by Tata Steel Ltd. and Steel Authority of India Ltd., and Chinese customs data. 

“Robust Chinese coal demand and import growth will continue throughout 2011,” Jeffrey Landsberg, president of New York-based Commodore Research & Consultancy, said Dec. 10 in an e-mailed response to questions. “China still has many decades left to develop. Only a fraction of the population, and really just the eastern part of the nation, has experienced profound growth. The rest of the country needs to develop as well.” Source: Bloomberg

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 14 Desember 2010

Untuk perdagangan Selasa, 14 Desember 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihan, yakni Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM), Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF), Berau Energy (BRAU), dan Bank Mandiri.

BUY: (TLKM, INDF, BRAU, BMRI)

• Koreksi tajam di IHSG akibat sentimen negatif dari rencana pembatasan bensin premium subsidi untuk mobil pribadi yang ditakutkan dapat menaikkan inflasi sebesar 1% berlebihan, sehingga rekomen akumulasi untuk antisipasi teknikal rebound.

• IHSG close (13-12) 3.692.23 (-55.48/-1.48%) (Val.Rp.3.6T)

• Support:3.670-3.575-3.500, Resistance: 3.725-3.800-3.840-

Stock picks:

1.    Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM): (BUY) (Target: Rp 8.150) (close 13/12 Rp 7.800)

• Koreksi yang cukup tajam selama lebih dari dua pekan membawa TLKM ke daerah jenuh jual (oversold) dan valuasi PER 2011F 11-12x di bawah IHSG 13-14x sehingga rekomen akumulasi untuk upside adjustement.

• Entry: (1) Rp 7.800, Entry (2) Rp 7.600, Cut loss point: Rp 7.400

2.   Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp 4.950) (Close 13/12 Rp 4.750)

• Pembatasan non-subsidi BBM untuk mobil pribadi tidak akan mempengaruhi cost operational karena persero sudah mengunakan BBM subsidi dengan harga pasar dalam kegiatan sehari2.

• Valuasi PER 2011F turun menjadi 15x, cukup murah versus PER 2011F regional Asia consumer yang diperdagangkan di atas 16x.

• Entry (1) Rp 4.725, (2) Rp 4.650, Cut loss point: Rp 4.550

3.   Berau Coal (BRAU) (BUY): (Target: Rp 540) (close 13/12 Rp 520)

• Harga batubara yang sudah di atas $110/ton untuk lebih dari sepekan dan ekspektasi terhadap penguatan permintaan untuk 3 bulan kedepan dapat menaikan asumsi harga jual rata2 dan value reserve batubara persero.

• Entry: (1) Rp 510, Entry: (2) Rp 490, Cut loss point: Rp 480

4.    Bank Mandiri (BMRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 6.850) (Close 13/12 Rp 6.500)

• Penguatan rupiah akibat ekspektasi bahwa Indonesia akan dinaikan lagi peringkat utangnya ke investment grade (bila memang pembatasan BBM jadi diberlakukan) positif buat BMRI yang mempunyai portofolio utang corporate dalam US$ dan valuasi yang dipengaruhi oleh risk free rate dari Indonesian bond yield.

• Entry: (1) Rp 6.400, Entry (2) Rp 6.300, Cut loss point: Rp 6.200

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)