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Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Copper Advances Before U.S. Service-Industries Report; Tin Gains to Record

Copper rose in New York and London before a report that probably will show a pickup at service industries in the U.S., the world’s second-largest user of the metal. Tin climbed to a record. 

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index, which covers about 90 percent of the U.S. economy, gained to 52, the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News shows. The figures may give clues as to how near the Federal Reserve is to injecting more money into the economy, said Robin Bhar, an analyst at Credit Agricole CIB in London. 

“If it comes in weaker, it plays into the hands of Fed members that are supportive of more quantitative easing,” he said, referring to debt purchases by the central bank. Ample liquidity is likely to support metals, according to Bhar. 

December-delivery copper advanced 4.35 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $3.7075 a pound at 8:10 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Copper for delivery in three months rose 1.1 percent to $8,148 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Tin touched $25,800 a ton on the LME.
“We still favor copper and believe that shortages will lead to price spikes in 2011,” 
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by Jeffrey Currie in London said in a report today. 

Copper will trade at $11,000 a ton in a year, the bank said, compared with an estimate of $8,050 in a Sept. 17 note. Prices reached a record $8,940 on July 2, 2008.

‘Easy Money’
Prices gained today as the U.S. Dollar Index, a six- currency measure of the greenback’s strength, dropped as much as 0.6 percent, making dollar-priced metals cheaper in terms of other monies. The Bank of Japan cut its key interest rate and said it would create a fund to buy government bonds and other assets, sending the yen lower. 

“It is all, in a way, competitive devaluations of currencies,” Credit Agricole’s Bhar said, adding that “easy money” helped prices to gain in recent years. The LME Index of the six main metals traded on the exchange almost doubled in the two years through 2006. 

The ISM index, due at 10 a.m. in Washington, was at 51.5 in August. The services survey covers industries that range from utilities and retailing to health care, housing, finance and transportation. 

Tin for three-month delivery on the LME was last up 1.6 percent at $25,602 a ton, paring a climb of as much as 2.4 percent. The previous record, set in May 2008, was $25,500. The metal is this year’s best LME performer, up 52 percent, after production disruptions in Indonesia and Democratic Republic of Congo bolstered prices.

More Demand
“The fundamentals are helping,” Bhar said. “It is a bit like the copper story. If you don’t have enough supply, then with demand beginning to pick up, the market is concerned.”
Copper stockpiles slipped 0.1 percent today to 374,100 tons, exchange figures showed. They shrank 17 percent in the third quarter and are headed for the first annual contraction since 2004. 

Orders to draw copper from LME inventories, or canceled warrants, slid 7.1 percent to 17,050 tons, the lowest level since May 12. That was the 10th drop in a row, matching the longest declining streak since May 11. 

Aluminum for three-month delivery on the LME climbed 0.1 percent to $2,366 a ton. The exchange canceled 220 lots of the three-month contract traded just after the open of its Select electronic trading system. 

Nickel rose 0.7 percent to $24,302 a ton, after reaching $24,423, the highest since May 5. Zinc advanced as much as 2.8 percent to $2,293.50 a ton, the highest since April 30, and was last at $2,281. Lead climbed 1 percent to $2,300 a ton.Source: Bloomberg

Tin Rises to Record in London on Shrinking Stockpiles, Supply Disruptions

* Tins price reach US$ 25,800/metric ton
Tin rose to a record in London as declining stockpiles and mining disruptions heightened speculation that supplies won’t be adequate for demand.

Stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange have dropped 53 percent this year, according to LME data. Tin exports from Indonesia, the biggest exporter, for the first eight months this year fell to 60,107 metric tons from 67,797.54 tons a year earlier, the Ministry of Trade in Jakarta said on Sept. 22.
“The tin market is currently characterized by quite dramatic supply problems, especially in Indonesia,” Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said.

Tin for three-month delivery on the LME gained as much as $600, or 2.4 percent, to $25,800 a ton. The metal was up 1.8 percent at $25,650 by 11:32 a.m. local time. The previous record was $25,500 a ton in May 2008.

Tin has climbed 51 percent this year, the most of the main six metals on the LME and the first to advance to a record since the global recession. It’s mainly used to solder other metals together. Demand outpaced supply by 9,900 tons for the first seven months this year, according to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics.

Production in China, the world’s largest producer, may be restricted through the end of the year because of limitations on power, tin industry group ITRI Ltd. said on Sept. 29.

Bookings to remove metal, or canceled warrants, at LME warehouses have more than doubled this year, meaning inventories may further decline.

Congo, Indonesia

Prices have been bolstered by disruptions to production in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia.

“This year’s surprise came about when it became apparent that Indonesian production was badly lagging last year’s levels because of heavy rains,” Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global Ltd. in Darien, Connecticut, said on Sept. 23. Exports may drop 19 percent to about 80,000 tons this year, Alberth Tubogu, export director for mining and industry products at Indonesia’s trade ministry, said on Sept. 20.

In August, shipments from Indonesia dropped to 7,974 tons from 8,870 tons in July, the ministry said. Indonesia is the world’s second largest producer of tin, a metal mainly used in electrical soldering.

Local inventories in Indonesia have “largely been depleted, especially among smaller producers, so that only a small portion of the production shortfall can be buffered by local inventories,” said Briesemann.

Suspension

“In other countries, too, tin production is not moving ahead,” Briesemann said. “In Congo, the largest African tin producer, even a general ban on mining was imposed in the country’s tin-rich eastern provinces,” he said. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s Mines Minister Martin Kabwelulu said on Sept. 21 a mining suspension in three eastern provinces will be upheld “until further notice.” President Joseph Kabila suspended all mining operations in three eastern provinces, the mines ministry said on Sept. 11.

Demand for tin is expected to increase 13 percent this year, MF Global’s Meir said, citing figures from ITRI. “Because demand remains strong we are seeing a noticeable decline in tin inventories,” he said.Source: Bloomberg

Danareksa Borong 71 Ribu Lot Saham Lippo Karawaci

Danareksa Sekuritas memborong 71.024 lot saham Lippo Karawaci (LPKR) di harga rata-rata Rp 631. Aksi investor lokal Danareksa ini juga dilakukan oleh investor asing melalui broker JP Morgan Securities Indonesia yang memborong 35.059 lot dan Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia yang juga membeli 20.780 lot serta Macquarie Securities Indonesia sebanyak 20 ribu lot.

Aksi empat sekuritas tersebut berhasil mendorong saham Lippo Karawaci naik 8,33% atau Rp 50 menjadi Rp 650.


1
OD
DANAREKSA SEKURITAS
223
71,024
631.52
17
656
631.14
70,368
71,680
2
BK
J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA
90
35,059
629.62
-
-
-
35,059
35,059
3
CS
CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA
82
20,780
636.36
-
-
-
20,780
20,780
4
RX
MACQUARIE SECURITIES INDONESIA
32
20,000
625.00
19
458
632.79
19,542
20,458
5
DX
BAHANA SECURITIES
108
14,154
631.47
2
6
643.33
14,148
14,160
74
AG
DONGSUH KOLIBINDO SECURITIES
25
12,283
614.61
118
21,602
626.20
-9,319
33,885
75
EL
EVERGREEN CAPITAL
66
25,951
617.14
176
42,090
623.04
-16,139
68,041
76
YU
CIMB-GK SECURITIES INDONESIA
2
148
636.76
200
60,200
640.02
-60,052
60,348
77
ZP
KIM ENG SEKURITAS
56
6,560
631.89
301
118,341
629.24
-111,781
124,901

CLSA Indonesia Borong 176.250 Lot Saham Bakrieland Development

CLSA Indonesia memborong 176.250 lot saham Bakrieland Development (ELTY) di harga rata-rata Rp 158 tanpa menjual sama sekali. Investor lokal CLSA Indonesia membeli saham ELTY dari harga Rp 153-163. Broker ini mulai agresif membeli ELTY mulai pukul 14:25 begitu ada kepastian BI rate dipertahankan.

Pembelian oleh CLSA Indonesia ini berhasil membuat harga saham ELTY naik Rp 12 atau 7,84% menjadi Rp 165. Satu-satunya broker asing yang membeli saham ELTY adalah Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia yang memborong 22.770 lot.

Sedangkan urutan kedua hingga kelima broker pemborong saham ELTY ditempati oleh Mandiri Sekuritas, Waterfront Securities Indonesia, Reliance Securities, dan Pratama Capital Indonesia.



1
KZ
CLSA INDONESIA
272
176,250
158.51
-
-
-
176,250
176,250
2
CC
MANDIRI SEKURITAS
155
98,540
163.28
22
6,880
158.35
91,660
105,420
3
FZ
WATERFRONT SECURITIES INDONESIA
82
41,000
162.12
40
14,922
156.56
26,078
55,922
4
LS
RELIANCE SECURITIES TBK.
44
33,118
163.63
23
12,828
163.34
20,290
45,946
5
PK
PRATAMA CAPITAL INDONESIA
49
21,000
158.24
4
1,600
159.91
19,400
22,600
6
CS
CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA
89
22,770
156.14
8
5,000
156.00
17,770
27,770
86
BQ
DANPAC SEKURITAS
2
2,340
160.27
27
27,000
162.44
-24,660
29,340
87
NI
BNI SECURITIES
39
5,284
160.24
151
36,846
158.53
-31,562
42,130
88
PD
INDO PREMIER SECURITIES
71
11,240
161.91
247
62,022
159.76
-50,782
73,262
89
YP
ETRADING SECURITIES
177
39,549
158.61
442
145,832
158.23
-106,283
185,381