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Saturday, January 29, 2011

Copper ends up near record, tin posts new peak

* Copper nears record high on global growth view
* LME inventory builds seen as speculative bet
* Tin climbs to new record above $30,000 per tonne
* Coming up: U.S. regional manufacturing data Monday 

Copper prices closed 1.5 percent away from its record high on Friday, after data showing the U.S. economic expansion picked up in the fourth quarter reaffirmed robust global demand prospects for the industrial metal.

The copper market continued to feed off of the extended rally in tin prices, which climbed to another all-time peak at $30,040 a tonne -- their sixth in as many sessions -- as supply fears in major exporter Indonesia continued to spur bullish momentum.

Copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange rose $194 to close at $9,635 a tonne, just $146 or about 1.5 percent away from its Jan. 19 peak at $9,781.
COMEX copper for March delivery firmed 3.45 cents to settle at $4.3730 per lb on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

A late-session dip into negative territory from safe-haven flows into other markets due to unrest in Egypt was short-lived and copper prices regained their composure to close near their session highs.

Often viewed as being a good barometer for the global economy, copper prices rallied on data showing the U.S. economy regain its pre-recession peak, led by a big gain in consumer spending and strong exports.

"Business spending on equipment and software up 15 percent last year, computers and related equipment up 27 percent, auto and auto parts up 3.3, household furnishings and appliances up 8.7 percent ... all of that says copper," said Frank Lesh, a broker and futures analyst with Future Path Trading in Chicago.

Copper prices continued to defy a bearish trend in LME inventories since early December. Those stocks went up by another 800 tonnes to 398,075 tonnes, their highest level since early September.

But some market analysts saw the inventory builds as nothing more than a speculative bet on the market price.
"Futures are not inventory scorecards," said Howard Simons, a strategist at Bianco Research Group in Chicago. "You can have a rise in inventories and a rise in prices because people are pulling copper into storage ... it becomes a hoarding game.

"If you're going to get 3 to 3.5 percent global GDP growth this year, you're going to be in a tight supply situation in copper and it might not be a bad speculative bet to hoard it."
On the production front, Chilean copper output fell 1.6 percent in December compared with a year earlier, but it remained stable for 2010 as a whole, with annual production of 5.412 million tonnes.

Looking to next week, top consumer China goes on holiday for the Lunar New Year. China accounts for nearly 40 percent of global copper consumption.

SIZZLING TIN
Tin prices continued to fire on all cylinders, making it the best performing industrial metal this year with a gain of 10 percent.
Indonesia, which supplies nearly 30 percent of the world's tin consumption, producing an estimated 105,000 tonnes in 2010, has been struggling with rain that hampered production last month.

A senior mining official said the country would restrict annual output to a maximum 100,000 tonnes if high prices trigger a scramble for the metal.
"Of all the base metals, tin has had the best fundamentals," said Nic Brown, head of commodities research, economics and strategy at Natixis. "Supply appears relatively constrained ... Demand remains strong. You have a deficit in the market that is gradually eroding available stockpiles and there is limited capacity for substitution into other materials."

But tin's limited liquidity could catch unaware investors off-guard, unable to turn paper profits into real money.
Tin closed at $29,600 a tonne, up from Thursday's last bid of $29,075.

LME aluminum was last quoted at $2,472/$2,473 a tonne, up from $2,427 a tonne on Thursday. It was supported by a first-time confirmation from Deutsche Bank that around 2 million tonnes of the metal are tied up in financing deals.

Financing deals to extended lead times for withdrawal at LME-registered warehouses kept market conditions tight and the U.S. Midwest aluminum premium steady in the first few weeks of the year. Source: Reuters

Sinar Mas, HK's LCNC in talks to buy Mandala Air

Indonesian conglomerate Sinar Mas Group and Hong Kong-based airplane leasing firm LCNC are each in talks to buy debt-ridden Mandala Airlines after it ceased operations two weeks ago, said Herry Bhakti Singayuda at Indonesia's transport ministry on Friday.

"The talks are ongoing and Mandala will report to the government next week on who will be the new owner," Singayuda, the director general for aviation, told Reuters.

Mandala, a budget carrier serving 13 domestic destinations, suspended all flights on Jan 13 as the company struggled with debt problems. Source: Reuters