rss
Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites

Monday, December 20, 2010

Indonesia's Bakrieland says property market to grow 20 pct in 2011

PT Bakrieland Development, one of Indonesia's biggest property firms, sees the nation's property market growing by 20 percent next year as strong economic growth will help the sector tap more demand for housing as well as attract more foreign investment, said Hiramsjah Thaib, Bakrieland's CEO, on Monday.

PT Bakrieland Development also aims to launch an initial public offering for its toll-road unit in the fourth quarter 2011 to raise up to 1 trillion rupiah. Source: Reuters

Indonesia's XL Axiata sees 2011 revenue growth at 9-10 pct

PT XL Axiata , Indonesia's third largest telecommunications firm, said on Monday it expected revenue growth of between 9-10 percent next year.

This year's revenue growth is estimated to be above 20 percent, said president director Hasnul Suhaimi.

Suhaimi also said the firm expected to see the number of subscribers grow by 10 percent next year from more than 40 million at the end of 2010, and saw capital expenditure at $500 million in 2011.Source: Reuters

TPG, Northstar to Boost Investments in Indonesia With New Fund

TPG Capital and its Indonesian partner, Northstar Pacific Partners, plan to boost investments in resources firms and companies set to benefit from growing consumption in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

Jakarta-based Northstar plans to raise $500 million for its third fund, which will be launched in the first quarter of next year, Patrick Walujo, co-founder of the firm, said in an interview on Dec. 18. TPG, run by billionaire David Bonderman, will put money into the fund, to be called Northstar Equity Partners III, Ashish Shastry, TPG’s head for Southeast Asia, said in the same interview in Singapore. 

The world’s fourth-most populous nation is attracting more interest from buyout firms including the U.K.’s CVC Capital Partners Ltd. and Washington-based Carlyle Group as China’s and India’s demand for Indonesia’s resources boosts raw-material prices. Consumer confidence has been buoyed by political stability under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono not seen since the ouster of former dictator Suharto in 1998. 

“There will be more competition going forward,” Walujo said. “We have to be aware of what’s going on and move faster and stay more alert all the time.” 

Indonesia will have a “very large share” of TPG’s investments in Southeast Asia in the future because of the size of the economy, Shastry said. Singapore had in the past accounted for the largest portion of its investments in the region, he said. The firm agreed in March to sell its 24 percent stake in Singapore-based Parkway Holdings Ltd., Asia’s biggest hospital operator. 

‘Strong Pipeline’
“Internally at TPG, we see Indonesia as a major investment destination for us,” Shastry said. “We are very optimistic about Indonesia.” 

TPG and Northstar are still discussing the amount of money that the Fort Worth, Texas-based firm will invest in the third fund, Shastry said. “We have a very strong pipeline, some of which we’re doing together with TPG and some on our own,” Walujo said. 

Northstar has generated almost $1.6 billion of equity investments for itself and its partners, including TPG and Government of Singapore Investment Corp., which manages Singapore’s reserves, he said. 

Northstar’s and TPG’s biggest holdings in Indonesia include PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional, originally a lender to retired civil servants, which opened about 500 micro-banking branches last year. The stock rose to a record earlier this month as the bank’s loan growth outpaced the Indonesian industry’s following its expansion into micro-lending.

Delta Dunia
Northstar sold its stake in PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT), the company that runs Alfamart minimarkets in Indonesia, in November for about $200 million, Walujo said. It made more than five times the money it invested in the firm in four years, he said. 

TPG and GIC invested last week in Indonesia’s PT Delta Dunia, which owns the country’s second-biggest coal mining contractor. TPG and GIC bought non-voting shares in Northstar Tambang Persada Ltd., an investment vehicle which owns 40 percent of Delta Dunia, according to a letter filed to the Indonesian stock exchange on Dec. 18. 

TPG and GIC bought the shares in Northstar Tambang Persada from Indonesia’s Widjaya family, which owns Sinar Mas Group, and the previous owners of Delta Dunia, Shastry said. TPG, GIC and Northstar are now the only shareholders in the vehicle, he said. 

This is one of the biggest private equity investments in Indonesia, Shastry said, declining to disclose the value of the transaction. Northstar Tambang Persada’s stake in Delta Dunia is worth about $400 million, based on the current market value of the company. 

Jakarta-based Delta Dunia wholly owns PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, or Buma, Indonesia’s second-largest coal mining contractor. Indonesia overtook Australia to become the world’s biggest exporter of power-station coal in 2005, and prices for the fuel, set annually, rose 40 percent this year, according to Morgan Stanley.Source: Bloomberg

Jual Mitratama Perkasa, BUMI Untung US$ 190 Juta

PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) menjual PT Mitratama Perkasa (PTMP) kepada PT Nusantara Pratama Indah senilai US$ 190 juta atau kurang dari 20% dari ekuitas BUMI.

"Dengan demikian transaksi pengalihan saham PTMP oleh perseroan tidak termasuk dalam kategori transaksi material sebagaimana diatur dalam Peraturan Bapepam-LK No IX.E.2," ungkap Direktur & Corporate Secretary PT Bumi Resources Tbk Dileep Srivastava dalam keterbukaan di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Senin (20/12).

Adapun jumlah saham dan presentase kepemilikan atas PT Mitratama Perkasa yang dialihkan sebanyak 419 lembar saham kepada PT Nusantara Pratama Indah dengan nilai transaksi sebesar US$ 190 juta. Saham-saham tersebut mewakili 69,8% dari seluruh saham yang telah dikeluarkan dalam PT Mitratama Perkasa.
Penjualan PT Mitratama Perkasa (PTMP) ini sebelumnya terkendala gadai saham PTMP yang dilakukan BUMI dengan Deutsche Bank. Pasalnya, dalam condition preceden dengan pihak calon pembeli yang kala itu PT Cahaya Pratama Lestari, disepakati saham PTMP harus bebas dari segala bentuk gadai saham. Akibatnya, hingga sekarang, transaksi tersebut belum terealisasi. Batas waktu closing transaksi ini adalah pada akhir Juli 2010 mendatang. Kondisi prasyarat ini tergantung kepada pelunasan utang kepada Deutsche Bank.

BUMI mengungkapkan bila dana yang diterima dari penjualan saham PTMP ini akan digunakan untuk mengurangi utang perseroan. Adapun kreditur yang berpotensi untuk dibayarkan adalah Country Forest Limited, Raiffesein Zentralbank Osterreich AG, Credit Suisse, JP Morgan Chase Bank NA, dan Deutsche Bank. 
PTMP diakuisisi oleh BUMI pada Oktober 2007 lalu. Ketika itu, PT Bumi Resources Tbk ingin mengakuisisi 99,84 persen saham PT Mitratama Perkasa yang merupakan pemilik pelabuhan di Bengalon, Kalimantan Timur. 
Demikian disampaikan Sekretaris Perusahaan Bumi Resources Dileep Srivastava dalam penjelasannya ke Bursa Efek Surabaya (BES), Selasa (2/10/2007). "Tujuan perseroan melakukan transaksi ini karena Mitratama Perkasa memiliki pelabuhan di Bengalon, sehingga dapat menunjang aktivitas kegiatan usaha unit perseroan," ujarnya. 
Menurut Dileep, pelabuhan yang dimiliki Mitratama merupakan pelabuhan tongkang yang sejak awal memang dibiayai perseroan. Sehingga tidak ada biaya akuisisi riil yang dikeluarkan Bumi Resources. Dileep menyampaikan transaksi tersebut juga tidak memiliki benturan kepentingan sehingga tidak memerlukan persetujuan pemegang saham melalui RUPSLB

Lihat berita terkait:
BUMI Resources Akuisisi Pelabuhan di Bengalon ( 2 Oktober 2007)
 

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 20 Desember 2010

Berikut rekomendasi dari enam  sekuritas ternama untuk proyeksi perdagangan hari ini dan saham-saham yang patut dicermatin oleh para investor.
 
1. Reliance Securities
Pada perdagangan hari ini, IHSG akan kembali mencoba mendekati level psikologis 3.600 dan bergerak di kisaran 3.571-3.595. Saham yang dapat dijadikan pilihan antara lain AALI, ASII, PGAS, dan BMRI. Pada akhir pekan lalu, indeks ditutup menguat tipis 0,28% ke level 3.581,56. Penguatan indeks tersebut ditopang oleh naiknya harga saham di sektor properti dan keuangan, meskipun investor asing masih membukukan nilai penjualan bersih (net sell) Rp 411 miliar.

2. Bhakti Securities
Indeks diprediksi bergerak di rentang 3.550-3.650 pada perdagangan hari ini. Indeks berpotensi menguat, terutama dipicu oleh peningkatan harga komoditas seperti batu bara, timah, dan nikel. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain ITMG, PTBA, SMGR, INTP, ANTM, PGAS, INCO, ASII, AALI, dan LSIP. Rencana pembagian dividen dari beberapa emiten juga memberikan sentiment positif terhadap pergerakan indeks. Namun, kondisi ekonomi regional masih memberikan sentimen negatif.

3. Kresna Sekuritas:
Tekanan jual asing masih menekan pergerakan IHSG. Support 3530 akan menentukan pergerakan IHSG dalam jangka pendek. IHSG diperkirakan masih berkonsolidasi di kisaran 3,530-3,620 dengan TLKM dan SMCB sebagai saham pilihan.

4. Finan Corpindo Nusa:

Setelah seharian bergerak fluktuatif, IHSG akhirnya ditutup naik tipis dengan saham-saham konstruksi dan perbankan sebagai pendorong penguatan. Di tengah minimnya sentimen positif di pasar investor memilih bersikap wait & see meskipun begitu momentum pelemahan dapat digunakan untuk akumulasi saham-saham berfundamental baik. Untuk Senin IHSG diperkirakan bergerak menguat dengan support 3.540 dan resistance 3.610.

5. Bapindo Bumi Sekuritas:
Pada perdagangan akhir pekan lalu (17/12), IHSG ditutup naik tipis sebesar 9.83 point atau 0.28% pada level 3,581.57, sekaligus membentuk candle white spinning top atau bullish reversal patterns. Yang menarik pada perdagangan akhir pekan lalu, kenaikan IHSG pada waktu itu disertai dengan buying power yang cukup signifikan. Sehingga secara teknikal IHSG memberikan sinyal indikasi akan mengakhiri penurunan jangka pendeknya.

Sepanjang pekan ini kami memproyeksikan saham-saham sektor konsumer akan mengalami technical rebound serta menjadi market mover dalam menyongsong hari raya Natal dan Tahun Baru yang merupakan momentum ataupun katalis positif bagi saham-saham sektor konsumer. Pada perdagangan hari ini kami memproyeksikan IHSG akan bergerak pada kisaran support 3,507.69 – 3,638.07 resistance dengan kecenderungan menguat.


  • Saham-saham pilihan hari ini: BBNI, BUMI, HEXA, SMGR, UNVR.
  • Saham-saham pilihan sepanjang pekan ini: BMDN, MEDC, MYOR, UNVR, WIKA.

6. Indosurya Securities:

Pada perdagangan Senin (20/12) diperkirakan IHSG akan berada pada support 3.508-3.545 dan resistance 3.610-3.639. Ternyata candle IHSG break and reversal sebelum menyentuh support 1 (3.532) pada perdagangan Jumat (17/12) dengan membentuk bullish harami di posisi bawah. Ini merupakan awal yang bagus untuk bergerak naik. Bila IHSG sedang membentuk pola "W" maka diperkirakan tren kenaikan telah dimulai. Diharapkan pada sisa perdagangan menjelang akhir tahun, IHSG mendapat sentimen positif sehingga terjadi tren kenaikan. MACD masih bergerak melemah. RSI, William's %R, dan Stochastic berusaha reversal menjauhi area oversold. Dengan asumsi pola tren kenaikan akan sama seperti tren kenaikan di awal Desember maka bukan tidak mungkin IHSG di akhir perdagangan tahun ini ditutup mendekati level 3.800.

TPG, GIC invests $331 million at Indonesia's coal firm-sources

U.S. private equity firm Texas Pacific Capital TPG.UL and Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC GIC.ULinvested 2.99 trillion rupiah ($331 million) for a stake in an Indonesia coal contractor, two sources with knowledge of the deal said on Sunday.

TPG and GIC have bought non-voting shares in Northstar Tambang Persada Ltd, a special purpose vehicle which owns 40 percent in PT Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID.JK), according to a statement to Indonesia's stock exchange, following a report in the Financial Times on Dec 18 about the deal.

Delta Dunia is owned PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, Indonesia's second largest coal contractor.

The transaction was conducted early this month when they bought 2.72 million shares of Delta Dunia for 1,100 rupiah a share, one source told Reuters.

TPG and GIC bought the shares from the Widjaya family, which controls conglomerate Sinar Mas Group, and the Bakrie Group, the source added.

"The investment in Delta is appealing as it has returned up to 25 percent annually," another source, who declined to be identified because the details were not public, told Reuters.

Delta Dunia provides various services to Indonesia's coal mine operators such as Bumi Resources (BUMI.JK), Indonesia's largest mining group, controlled by the politically connected Bakrie family. It transports coal to customers in China, India and other markets.
Delta Dunia shares have fallen 24 percent so far this year, underforming a broader Jakarta market .JKSE up 41 percent. Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 20 Desember 2010

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan hari ini, Senin 20 Desember 2010, termasuk empat saham yang direkomendasikan beli, yakni Telekomunikasi Indonesia, (TLKM) Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS), Bumi Resources (BUMI), dan London Sumatera (LSIP).
BUY: (TLKM, PGAS, BUMI, LSIP)
  • Penutupan IHSG kembali  di daerah positif pasca koreksi lebih dari sepekan menandakan bahwa technical rebound untuk merubah tren ke arah lebih positif hingga mengetes 3.630-3.725 dapat terjadi dalam beberapa hari kedepan
  • IHSG close (17-12) 3.581.57 (+9.83/+0.28%) (Val.Rp.4.1T)   
  • Support:3.530-3.450, Resistance: 3.630-3.720-3.770
 
 
Stock picks:
 
1.    Telekomunikasi (TLKM): (BUY) (Target: Rp.8.150) (close 17/12 Rp.7.950)
  • Batalnya merger antara flexi dan esia (BTEL) yang sebelumnya bersifat kontroversial karena dianggap akan menguntungi pihak BTEL versus TLKM disambut positif oleh pasar sehingga potensi rally dapat terjadi untuk merubah arah tren sideways ini.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 7.850, Entry (2) Rp 7.700, Cut loss point: Rp 7.500
 
2.   Perusahaan Gas (PGAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 4.550) (Close 17/12 Rp 4.325)
  • Suplai gas yang dapat terjamin pasca pembangunan proyek LNG terminal, penyesuaian harga jual gas kedepan, end-user domestik, valuasi menarik (PER 13.5x di bawah PER 14.5x 2010 IHSG) & profitabilitas tinggi (ROE/NPM diatas 25x) dapat mendorong technical rebound di PGAS berlanjut menjadi minor uptrend.
  • Entry (1) Rp 4.250, (2) Rp 4.100, Cut loss point: Rp 3.950
 

3.   Bumi Resources (BUMI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.150) (close 17/12 Rp 2.900)
  • Berbagai katalis seperti dibukanya kembali Vallar di bursa London pasca suspensi yang naik 8%, pengurangan biaya utang akibat dana terhimpun dari IPO BRM, serta sensitivas earnings terhadap harga batubara yang di atas US$115/ton dapat mengembalikan BUMI di atas level psikologis Rp 3.000.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 2.800, Entry: (2) Rp 2.700, Cut loss point: Rp 2.600
 

4.    London Sumatra (LSIP): (BUY) (Target: Rp 11.950) (Close 17/12 Rp 11.100)
  • Outlook CPO yang masih optimis untuk 2011 dapat mendorong investor untuk akumulasi emiten CPO dengan price performance terbaik versus IHSG untuk 2011 pasca pullback ini.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 11.000, Entry (2) Rp 10.600, Cut loss point: Rp 10.250
 
 
 
Dibuat oleh: 
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Friday, December 17, 2010

Vallar gains in first trading since coal deal

* Vallar shares up 6.4 pct, outperforms mining sector
* Firm agreed reverse takeover with Indonesia coal groups


LONDON -
Shares in mining investment vehicle Vallar Plc (VAAR.L) gained on Friday in the first trading since it agreed a complex deal last month to transform into an Indonesian coal company.

The London shares shot up 6.4 percent to 1,035 pence by 0828 GMT compared with a 0.5 percent increase in the British mining index .FTNMX1770.

London-listed Vallar, established by financier Nathaniel Rothschild earlier this year, announced a reverse takeover on Nov. 16 to join forces with Indonesia's powerful Bakrie family, which control the country's biggest coal producer.

"We believe the deal was a good one for Vallar and it could be a great one," analyst Michael Rawlinson at Liberum Capital said in a note.

Under the November deal, the Bakrie Group, run by the family of politician and tycoon Aburizal Bakrie, is joining miner Berau Coal (BRAU) with prize asset PT Bumi Resources (BUMI) in a share swap deal with Vallar.

Bakrie will gain majority control of Vallar and rename it Bumi Plc. Bakrie Group will own 43 percent of Bumi Plc, while 28.3 percent will be owned by existing Vallar ordinary shareholders. Source: Reuters

Indonesia's Telkom sees 10-13 pct mobile subscriber growth in 2011

PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia , Indonesia's largest telecoms firm, said on Friday it expected to have 94 million mobile subscribers in 2010 and saw growth of 10-12 million next year.

Slowing growth in the mobile market in Southeast Asia's biggest economy has led Telkom to seek opportunities overseas and an executive told Reuters it is in talks to buy a majority stake in Cambodia's top mobile firm CamGSM. Source: Reuters

Indonesia plans to buy 7 pct Newmont unit stake

* Stake in Sumbawa gold mine operator worth about $272 mln
* Could buy stake through state-investment agency or state-owned firms 

Indonesia plans to buy a 7 percent stake in Newmont Mining Corp's Indonesia unit, worth around $272 million, Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo on Friday. 

Newmont and Japan's Sumitomo Corp are the majority owners of PT Newmont Nusa Tengara (NNT) which runs the Batu Hijau copper and gold mine in West Nusa Tenggara province. Last year, they were ordered to reduce their holding in the unit to less than 50 percent by selling to local investors. 

The central government had previously not taken part in sales of stakes totalling 24 percent of the mining unit. 

"Government has delivered its intention to take the right," Martowardojo said. "At the moment it will be government, whether it will be state investment agency or state owned firms we will discuss it later." 

The government is going to finalise the plans in the form of presidential decree this year, he added. 

The previous stakes had been sold to PT Multi Daerah Bersaing -- a consortium of the governments of West Nusa Tenggara province, West Sumbawa regency and Sumbawa regency where the mine is located -- and PT Multicapital, a unit of Bumi Resources Minerals. PT Pukuafu Indah, a local NNT shareholder, owns a 20 percent stake. Source: Reuters

Indonesia cbank sees higher FDI in 2011, lower portfolio investment

Indonesia's central bank deputy governor Hartadi A. Sarwono said on Friday he forecast foreign direct investment (FDI) growing to $14.4 billion next year, but saw portfolio investment falling to $8 billion.

"The decline in portfolio investment is affected by narrower yield gaps and concerns over risks in Ireland...But it is estimated to shift to FDI along with better investment prospects in Indonesia," he told Reuters.

Bank Indonesia estimated this year's FDI into Southeast Asia's biggest economy at $12.5 billion and portfolio investment at $15.5 billion, he said.Source: Reuters

Indonesia to keep luring emerging market investors

Indonesia's stock market rallied to a record high this month, while net foreign ownership of the country's government debt is also at a record, as investors are attracted by strong growth and political stability.

Here are some questions and answers on why Indonesia is a favourite with emerging market investors.


WHY INDONESIA?
Indonesia showed resilience during the financial crisis. Its economy should expand around 6 percent next year, slower than China or India, but maintaining 2010's steady growth.
The economy is being driven by exports of resources such as palm oil and coal, for which global demand is picking up, plus a growing base of young consumers buying cars and mobile phones in the world's fourth most populous nation.

Its lack of reliance on exports, in contrast to Asian peers Malaysia and Taiwan, means investors can bet on a growth story that will be relatively decoupled from the slow growth in Europe and the United States.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was re-elected last year, boosting investor confidence. While progress on his promise to combat graft and on other institutional investor-friendly reforms has been limited, the police have containing the threat from militants while the government's debt levels have fallen.

Debt is seen at 27 percent of GDP this year compared with about 80 percent in 2001, according to data from Bank Danamon.

That's led to credit rating upgrades: Fitch in January rated Indonesia one notch below the coveted investment grade, which would put it on a par with BRIC nations and allow many institutional investors who avoid junk bonds to invest. Many economists and the government see investment grade in 2011.

Total returns from owning Indonesian bonds in dollar terms have been a mouthwatering 20 percent after 40 percent returns last year, while the stock market has climbed over 40 percent this year, after last year's 87 percent rally. And a strengthening rupiah , up over 4 percent, boosts local currency assets.


WHAT ARE INVESTORS BUYING?
Investors are buying banks and consumer stocks. Top vehicle seller PT Astra International , cigarette firm PT Gudang Garam and noodle maker PT Indofood Sukses Makmur have all outperformed the index.

PT Bank Negara Indonesia is the top performing major bank, up over 100 percent this year. Its valuation is still reasonable at a price-to-book of 2.2, versus 4.9 for PT Bank Central Asia, the largest lender by value.

Demand for new listings is expected to stay strong in a relatively small market. With firms looking to take advantage of the rally, 2011 will see more offerings such as state carrier Garuda and U.S. miner Newmont's local unit. 

Indonesian stocks saw net foreign buying of $2.3 billion this year up to Dec 14, more than double the last year's net inflows of $936 million, according to Thomson Reuters data. 

The central bank's short-term debt paper, or SBIs, has also been an investor favourite, paying a juicy 6 percent, but the central bank in recent months has stopped issuing the lowest one- and three-month tenors and imposed a 28-day holding period, cutting liquidity and pushing investors towards longer tenors or government debt, and this trend is likely to continue. 

While bond yields have risen in recent weeks mirroring a broad rise across Asia as some investors took profits into the year-end, net foreign holdings have risen to a record 196 trillion rupiah, or above 30 percent of all tradeable debt, suggesting much of the money invested is staying put. 

In a sea change from recent years, foreigners have been big buyers of longer-term debt, snapping up 10 to 20 year papers as low interest rates and ample liquidity encouraged offshore buyers to add duration. 

Ten-year bonds offer a yield of 7.74 percent, 0.6 percentage points above equivalent Mexican debt and 3.8 percentage points over Thai bonds . 

Foreign direct investment is also picking up and is expected to grow slightly next year to over $14 billion, led by North Asian firms. There are also tentative signs more Western firms are willing to take the risk, after many have been put off for years by corruption, poor infrastructure and red tape. 

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?
For stocks, valuations are looking expensive, particularly for banks, and the index's PE ratio is at 16.4, above Bangkok's 12.9, Hong Kong's 14.1 and Turkey's 9.6. 

Corporate governance is another risk. Regulators earlier this year queried the financial reports of top coal miner Bumi Resources and other firms controlled by the powerful Bakrie family. Bumi's stock slid around 30 percent by mid-year though has since recovered. 

For bond investors, there is still the risk that the central bank will misjudge inflation, historically the Achilles heel. Inflation accelerated to above the central bank's upper target of 6 percent last month, and could pick up further in coming months on higher food and electricity prices. 

The central bank sees rate hikes as a policy of last resort as it fears attracting greater capital inflows, but most economists expect a rate hike by the second quarter. 

If earlier or steeper rate hikes look more likely, this could cut demand for dated bonds and hurt the rupiah. Another factor that could inhibit fresh inflows next year is if U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise at a sharp pace, which would diminish the relative allure of these bonds given spreads over Treasuries would be at tighter levels. Source: Reuters

Indonesia Stocks to Rise as Inflation Risk Overstated,Panin Says

Indonesia stocks, Asia’s best performer among major markets this year, will extend their rally as concerns about accelerating inflation are overstated and potential interest-rate increases won’t slow the economy, according to PT Panin Sekuritas, the nation’s best performing fund over the past five years. 
 
Investors should buy PT Gudang Garam and PT Indofood Sukses Makmur as consumption growth will likely hold up, boosting demand for cigarettes and food products, David Sondakh, a Jakarta-based analyst at Panin, said in an interview today.Source: Bloomberg

Memo Mega Capital 17 Desember 2010

Memo Mega Capital 17 Desember 2010                                                                                                                                   

Riset Harum Energy oleh OSK

Riset Harum Energy oleh OSK. Target harga Rp 9.900 karena kenaikan volume produksi yang pesat, posisi neraca keuangan yang kuat, dan aktraktif struktur pasar batubara.
 
Riset Harum Energy Oleh OSK                                                                                                                                   

Riset Sektor Batubara oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset Sektor Batubara oleh NISP Sekuritas. Asumsi rata-rata harga jual batubara dinaikkan menjadi US$ 95/ton tahun 2011 dan US$ 100/ton tahun 2012 dengan proyeksi jangka panjang US$ 90/ton dari asumsi sebelumnya US$ 80/ton 2011, US$ 85/ton 2012, dan jangka panjang US$ 85/ton.

Saat ini harga thermal coal telah naik US$ 115,8/ton, naik 34,3% dari awal tahun. Menurut NISP Sekuritas, Bumi Resources akan mendapat manfaat positif dari kenaikan harga ini. NISP Sekuritas juga tetap merekomendasikan beli untuk Adaro dan Bukit Asam.


Target harga BUMI Rp 3.550, Adaro Rp 3.000, Bukit Asam Rp 24.500, dan Indo Tambangraya Megah Rp 45.900.

Riset Sektor Batubara Oleh NISP Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Riset Industri Semen November oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset Industri Semen November oleh NISP Sekuritas. Konsumsi semen domestik hingga November (year on year) tercatat turun 0,3% year on year menjadi 3,53 juta ton. Dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya, angka ini turun 7,8% dari posisi Oktober 2010 sebanyak 3,83 juta ton. Sedangkan dari Januari-November 2010 hanya naik 6,8% dengan penurunan terbesar terjadi di Jawa.


NISP Securitas mencatat angka penjualan Semen Gresik paling besar penurunannya, yakni sebesar 8,8% dari bulan sebelumnya.

 
Riset Industri Semen November Oleh NISP Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Riset Industri Semen oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas

Riset Industri Semen oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas.Di tengah hujan deras, konsumsi semen domestik hingga November turun 0,3% year on year menjadi 3,53 juta ton. Dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya, angka ini turun 7,8% dari posisi Oktober 2010 sebanyak 3,83 juta ton.


Secara kumulatif, konsumsi semen masih 6,6% lebih tinggi, namun di bawah estimasi Kim Eng yang memproyeksikan pertumbuhan 7,9%. Akibatnya, Kim Eng memangkas target harga emiten semen, seperti Semen Gresik (SMGR) dari Rp 10.900 menjadi Rp 10.500. Indocement (INTP) dari Rp 19.550 menjadi Rp 19.050. Holcim Indonesia dari Rp 2.450 menjadi Rp 2.400.


Namun, Kim Eng tetap mempertahankan rekomendasi beli terhadap Indocement dan Hold untuk Semen Gresik.

Riset Industri Semen Oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 17 Desember 2010


Untuk perdagangan Jumat, 17 Desember 2010, tiga sekuritas ternama memberikan proyeksi, berikut saham-saham pilihan yang patut dicermatin oleh para investor.
 
1. E-Trading Securities
Pada perdagangan Kamis (16/12), IHSG ditutup melemah 86 poin (-2.37%) menjadi 3.571.  Asing melakukan net selling Rp 1,1 triliun yang tersebar di hampir seluruh sektor, di mana terbesar berada di sektor perbankan. Jika kita lihat dari stochastic, IHSG telah berada di kisaran oversold, sehingga potensi untuk rebound besar. Hari ini IHSG akan berada di kisaran 3.530–3.650.

2. Sucorinvest Central Gani
Aksi jual investor asing atas saham-saham big caps menekan indeks kemarin. Ini ditambah menurunnya optimisme pemulihan ekonomi global, kekhawatiran kebijakan moneter ketat Tingkok, penurunan harga komoditas dan menjelang libur Natal dan Tahun Baru. IHSG diprediksi melemah pada kisaran 3.531-3.620 hari ini. Buy BYAN, ELTY, hold PGAS, dan sell ANTM, INCO, ITMG, SMCB, TINS.

3. Kresna Graha Sekurindo
Penurunan proyeksi pertumbuhan Indonesia di tengah minimnya katalis global mengakibatkan tekanan jual asing kembali terjadi. IHSG diperkirakan masih tertekan di kisaran 3.510-3.600 dengan TLKM dan INCO sebagai saham pilihan.






Thursday, December 16, 2010

AmCapital Set Target Price BRI IDR 13,500 per Share

Bank Rakyat Indonesia was rated new "Buy" at AmCapital Indonesia by equity analyst Swie Cu Yap. The 12 month target price is IDR 13,500 per share.