Japan is not yet asking more coal supplies, Rajasa Said

Japan is not yet asking for more coal supplies from Indonesia to meet its energy demand after the quake crippled a nuclear power plant, said Hatta Rajasa, chief economic minister said on Thursday. Source: Reuters

Fitch says may not wait 12 mths to upgrade Indonesia

Fitch Ratings said on Thursday it may not wait 12 months to upgrade Indonesia's sovereign rating to investment grade, though weak infrastructure in the country was the key risk to any upgrade.


Fitch last month upgraded the country's outlook to positive from stable because of strong economic growth and falling debt, and said favourable prospects meant its credit profile was likely to strengthen further over the next 12 to 18 months.

"We're not saying we will wait definitely 12 months," said Andrew Colquhoun, head of Fitch's Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings, at a briefing in Jakarta.

The positive outlook from Fitch put Indonesia a notch away from an upgrade to BBB-, an investment grade status that would put it on a par with BRIC nations such as China. Source: Reuters

Indocement Q4 net profit falls 4 pct on higher costs

PT Indocement Tunggal Perkasa (INTP), Indonesia's biggest cement maker by market value, on Thursday said its fourth-quarter 2010 net profit fell 4 percent as costs climbed.

The firm's fourth quarter net profit was 841 billion rupiah ($95.8 million) in 2010, compared with 878 billion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calcuations showed based on published full-year and nine-months results.

Indocement, controlled by cement giant HeidelbergCement AG , reported a full year 2010 net profit of 3.224 trillion rupiah, up 17 percent from 2.747 trillion rupiah a year earlier.

Analysts forecast full-year 2010 net profit up 21 percent to 3.33 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters Starmine.
Indocement's 2010 full-year net revenue rose 5.3 percent to 11.14 trillion rupiah.

The firm is expanding its current cement production capacity of 18.6 million tonnes a year with another two million tonnes by 2012, building a new plant this year.

Indocement shares were 2.7 percent to 14,300 rupiah on Thursday before the result, and have slipped 10 percent this year to underperform the Jakarta index . ($1 = 8775 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 16 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 16 Maret 2011.

BUY: (ADRO, BBRI, ASII, INDF)

* Koreksi akibat efek regional membuat beberapa emitten big cap-movers menarik di akumulasi untuk antisipasi technical rebound.

* IHSG close (15-01) 3.511.506(-54.284/-1.56%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

* Support: 3.510-3.470, Resistance: 3,650-3,750

Stock picks:

1. Adaro Energy (ADRO): (BUY) (target: Rp 2.475) (close 15/03 Rp 2.375)

*Adaro mempunyai cost paling efisien dalam produksi batubara, terlihat dalam OPM (operating profit margin) 28% tertinggi di sektornya

* Kenaikan batubara di atas $120/ton menaikan ASP (average selling estimates) 2011 dari US$91/ton dari sebelumnya $76/tons sehingga pertumbuhan laba per saham (EPS growth) dapat mencapai 70% di 2011 versus tahun sebelumnya

* Rencana pembangunan pembangkit listrik untuk menyuplai kebutuhan energi proyek conveyor belt dapat offset diesel cost tinggi yang disebabkan oleh melambungnya minyak mentah

* Entry (1) Rp 2.375, Entry (2) Rp 2.325, Cut loss point: Rp 2.250

2. Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 5.350) (Close 15/03 Rp 5.150)

* Konsensus analis memperkirakan penyaluran kredit akan tumbuh 18-20% di 2011-2012 didukung oleh rupiah yang kuat dan suku bunga kondusif.

* Fokus ke bank dengan qualitas pinjaman yang baik dan struktur funding murah seperti BBRI yang menyalurkan ke high margin Usaha Kredit Mikro bersifat low risk terhadap kejadian eksternal

* ROE 30% tertinggi di antara semua bank pemerintah & cost of fund murah

* Entry (1) Rp 5.150, Entry (2) Rp 5.050, Cut loss point: Rp 4.950

3. Indofood (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp 5.050) (Close 15/03 Rp 4.875)

*Secara valuasi menarik PER 2011F 12x dengan target fundamental Rp 5.400 12-bulan kedepan.

* Kelihatannya dalam next rally sector consumer akan ikut didukung oleh inflasi terkendali pasca pembatasan BBM ditunda serta penguatan rupiah yang menurunkan imported cost bahan baku dan menaikan consumer confidence (daya beli) masyarakat.

* Entry: (1) Rp 4.850, Entry (2) Rp 4.800, Cut loss point: Rp 4.750

4. Astra International (ASII) (BUY) (Target: Rp 56.200) (close 15/03 Rp 54.800)

* Proyeksi kedepan masih optimistis untuk laba 2011 yang diperkirakan akan mencapai target forecast HD capital riset di Rp 14,4  triliun (sebelumnya forecast 2010F Rp 12,4 triliun terlampui dengan actual result 2010 yang Rp 14,4 triliun)

* Secara valuasi menarik, target 12-bulan kedepan saja memberikan angka Rp 80.000 dengam asumsi PER 2011F 14.5x

* Entry (1) Rp 54.600, Entry (2) Rp 54.000, Cut loss point: Rp 53.500

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 16 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Rabu, 16 Maret 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

IHSG pada Selasa (15/3) ditutup melemah 45,36 poin (1,28%) ke level 3.524,48. Ini menyusul rontoknya indeks bursa regional akibat kekhawatiran radiasi dan kembali meledaknya pembangkit nuklir di Jepang. Asing membukukan net selling Rp 43 milliar. Secara teknikal, indeks kemarin dilanda tekanan jual berat sehingga candlestick membentuk black marubozu yang mengindikasikan sinyal bearish kuat. Pada perdagangan hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.468–3.570. Amati APLN, PTPP, dan HEXA.

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Secara teknikal, indeks hari ini cenderung melemah pada kisaran 3.450-3.564. Sejauh ini, indeks masih terimbas sentimen negatif dari pelemahan bursa global, terutama bursa Jepang akibat bencana alam di negeri itu. Selain itu, melemahnya harga komoditas terutama logam dan CPO turut menekan indeks. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain INTP, ROTI, INDF, UNTR.

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Kemarin, indeks berfluktuasi tajam di mana sempat minus 93 poin sebelum akhirnya ditutup turun 45,36 poin di level 3.524,48. Hampir seluruh sektor jeblok pada perdagangan kemarin, terutama perkebunan, industri dasar, keuangan, infrastruktur. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan berfluktuasi melemah pada kisaran 3.462-3.549. Dalam kondisi pasar seperti ini, pemodal dapat hold ADRO, INDF, ITMG, dan sell ENRG, KLBF, MEDC, TLKM.

Indonesia ready to provide more coal to Japan-association

Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, stands ready to provide additional coal to Japan to meet an expected surge in demand, said an official at the Indonesian Coal Mining Association on Tuesday. 

Japan faces a potential catastrophe after a quake-crippled nuclear power plant exploded and sent low levels of radiation floating towards Tokyo. 

Japan's coal-fired generators are already working close to capacity and can't boost output or imports to make up for lost nuclear power after Friday's earthquake. 

But as Japan struggles to fill that gap, its additional demand for coal is likely to be limited to 5-10 million tonnes over the rest of the year -- about 4 to 8 percent of total annual demand. 

"We are ready to provide additional coal to Japan to meet the expected surge in coal use following the shutdown of the country's nuclear power plants," said Kaz Tanaka, vice chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association in an emailed statement. 

He did not say how much spare production Indonesian producers have. 

Indonesia ships more than 70 percent of coal to the Asian market, with Japan the top buyer. But Japan prefers to source more from Australia because of the consistency of Australia's coal quality.

Traders said there may not be a surge in coal demand from Japan in the short-term as many industrial and residential consumers had been damaged by the tsunami which would cap demand for electricity. 

But in the long-term, Japan's coal demand may increase as nuclear power plants damaged by the earthquake may not restart anytime soon, said one trader.     Most Indonesian producers also had limited cargoes to meet short-term demand as producers normally have contracted their production until the first quarter of the year, but it may be able to fill the gap for the long-term, traders said. 

PT Bumi Resources , Asia's top thermal coal exporter, sees coal prices and demand going up in the medium term after the earthquake of Friday, Dileep Srivastava, a company director, said on Monday. 

    Industry officials have said Indonesia expects to produce 340 million tonnes of coal this year, up from an estimated 310 million tonnes in 2010 as miners ramp up production on higher prices. Source: Reuters

Matahari in Talks to Sell 20%-30% Stake

PT Matahari Putra Prima is in talks with potential buyers to sell between a 20% and 30% stake in the company, two sources familiar with the deal said Friday.

An executive with Lippo Group, the single largest owner in Matahari via PT Multipolar, told Dow Jones Newswires that Matahari "is in serious discussion" with Lotte Shopping, Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA, Walmart and Carlyle on the stake sale.

The executive said that Lippo is offering the investors an option to either buy part of Multipolar's stake in Matahari, or buy Matahari's stake via a rights issue that could be carried out for the purpose.

When contacted, South Korea's Lotte Group reiterated that it is interested in Matahari's hypermarket unit, and not Matahari, while a spokesperson at Casino Guichard-Perrachon declined to comment. Walmart and Carlyle couldn't immediately be reached for a response.

The sources expect the transactions could be completed by the end of this year.

Bankers familiar with the deal said Matahari, which has 49 outlets mostly in the western part of Indonesia, had planned to sell its hypermarket business but decided against it.

Matahari has said it wants investors to help it expand the hyperrmarket business to the eastern part of the archipelago, which is currently underserved.

This year Matahari expects to invest $150 million to add 15 outlets. It hopes to achieve $1 billion of sales in 2011 before rising to $3 billion over the subsequent three to four years.Source: Dow Jones

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 15 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Selasa, 15 Maret 2011.

1. E-Trading Securities

IHSG pada perdagangan Senin (14/3) menguat 27,6 poin (0,77%) ke level 3.569.84. Penguatan ini dipicu meningkatnya saham-saham sektor pertambangan sebesar 2,1% disusul aneka industri sebesar 1,49%. Secara teknikal, candlestick indeks kemarin membentuk pola spinning top yang mengindikasikan pergerakan pasar masih diliputi keraguan para investor. Sedangkan untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.537–3.611. Amati INCO, HRUM, dan ITMG.

2. Indo Premier Securities

Gempa dan tsunami di Jepang diprediksi bakal mengerek harga batubara. Alhasil, saham sektor batubara menjadi motor penggerak indeks kemarin. Di sisi lain, investor asing membukukan net buying Rp 195 miliar. Hari ini indeks masih rawan koreksi di kisaran 3.525-3.588, seiring masih panasnya konflik politik di Timur Tengah. Top picks kami adalah BMRI, BBCA, BBNI, PTBA, ADRO, AALI, dan LSIP.

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas  

Hari ini indeks saham secara teknikal diperkirakan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan menguat pada kisaran 3.535-3.600. Penutupan 11 pembangkit listrik tenaga nuklir di Jepang berpotensi mengerek harga batubara, sehingga dapat berimbas positif terhadap emiten batubara di BEI. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan adalah PTBA, INDY, ITMG, TINS.

Jepang Butuh Banyak Komoditas Indonesia

Jepang akan membutuhkan banyak komoditas dari Indonesia untuk rehabilitasi dan rekonstruksi pasca peristiwa gempa dan tsunami yang terjadi akhir pekan lalu.

“Karena setelah Jepang mengatasi infrastruktur yang rusak dan rehabilitasi, maka dia membutuhkan banyak sekali komoditas impor dari Indonesia dan jangan salah impor dari Indonesia bahan-bahan yang sangat dibutuhkan seperti energi dan pangan untuk mengisi manufakturnya,” jelas Kepala BPS Rusman Heriawan di Istana Bogor, Senin (14/3).

Dia pun berharap agar dampak dari tsunami ini dapat cepat ditangani oleh Jepang. Agar perekonomian global dapat berjalan dengan normal kembali. “Tentu ada dampak di Jepang sendiri, kita tahu beberapa manufakturnya menyetok sementara. Saya berharap ini bersifat sementara,” jelas dia.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 15 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Selasa, 15 Maret 2011.

BUY: (BJBR, KRAS, ASRI, BMRI)

• Profit taking akbat jenuh beli IHSG berhenti dicegat oleh bargain hunters di support zone crossover ma 10-50 hari (3.530-3.510) sehingga minor uptrend masih berjalan.

• IHSG close (14-01) 3.576.506(+34.284/+0.96%) (Val.Rp.2.4T) 

• Support: 3.510-3.470, Resistance: 3,650-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.     Bank Jawa Barat (BJBR): (BUY) (target: Rp 1.250) (close 14/03 Rp 1.150)

• Laba 2010 yang naik 25% menyebabkan pasar optimistis kembali atas kinerja keuangan Q1 2011 dan full year 2011 ke depan.

• Kelihatannya hal ini belum sepenuhnya tercermin dalam harga sahamnya sehingga masih ada potensi untuk mencoba menembus ma 50 hari di Rp 1.190.

• Entry (1) Rp 1.130, Entry (2) Rp 1.110, Cut loss point: Rp 1.080

 

2.   Krakatau Steel (KRAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 1.150) (Close 14/03 Rp 1.090)

• Kehancuran infrastructure Jepang akibat Tsunami dapat memicu harga baja naik untuk kebutuhan pembangunan kembali gedung, mobil dan beberapa barang lainnya yang mengunakan baja.

• Permintaan batubara yang naik pasca Tsunami Jepang yang merusak reactor nuklir (Jepang sekarang berpikir untuk beralih ke tenaga batubara) akan membuat cost produksi baja naik sehingga produsen baja akan menaikan harga jual besi ke consumer.

• Entry (1) Rp 1.080, Entry (2) Rp 1.060, Cut loss point: Rp 1.030

 

3.   Alam Sutera (ASRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 270-295) (Close 14/03 Rp 265)

• Suku bunga BI rate tetap, inflasi terkendali serta penguatan rupiah positif untuk kinerja sector property

• Secara technical ASRI sudah dalam pola minor uptrend dengan misi mencoba mengejar garis resistance down-trend-line pertama di Rp 270 dan kedua di Rp 290

• Entry: (1) Rp 265, Entry (2) Rp 255, Cut loss point: Rp 250

 

4.  Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY) (Target: Rp 6.400) (close 14/03 Rp 6.150)

• Modal kuat untuk ekspansi kredit pasca rights issue 13T, valuasi menarik (PER 13x/PBV 1.9x) dengan ROE di atas 20% merupakan katalis positif untuk akumulasi di support zone crossover MA 10-50 hari (Rp 6.150-5.950) dengan target atas di downtrendline Rp 6.350.

• Entry (1) Rp 6.150, Entry (2) Rp 5.950, Cut loss point: Rp 5.850

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Arqaam of Dubai to Help Indonesian Banks Find Gulf Investors

Arqaam Capital Ltd., a Dubai-based investment bank, wants to help other Indonesian lenders find investors in the Gulf Arab region after advising PT Bank Kesawan on the sale of a stake in itself to Qatar National Bank SAQ. (QNBK)

“There is active interest from a number” of mid-tier Indonesian banks to do deals such as the Qatar National Bank investment, Tamer Nazih Makary, Arqaam’s executive director, said in an interview in Dubai yesterday. About “four to five conventional banks, and two to three Islamic banks” may be looking to sell stakes to help raise money for growth, he said. 

Doha-based Qatar National Bank, the Persian Gulf country’s biggest lender by assets, took a 70 percent holding in Indonesia’s PT Bank Kesawan after becoming the standby buyer in its rights offer in January. Indonesia has more than 100 banks and the country’s central bank has prodded them to combine and boost capital after it spent 450 trillion rupiah ($37 billion) on bailouts following the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. 

AlBaraka Banking Group (BARKA), Bahrain’s biggest publicly traded Islamic lender, was also interested in acquiring a stake in PT Bank Kesawan, abandoning the plan amid the financial crisis, according to an official at Indonesia’s central bank. 

Other Gulf Arab banks that own shares in Indonesian lenders are Jeddah, Saudi Arabia-based Islamic Development and Kuwait’s Boubyan Bank KSC (BOUBYAN), which is partially owned by PT Bank Muamalat Indonesia. 

Arqaam was set up in 2007 and its businesses include an equities brokerage, equity derivatives and corporate finance. Its mandates include being the adviser to Jordan-based cement trading company CTI Group Inc.’s acquisition of PT Semen Batam, one of Indonesia’s largest cement producers.

Indonesia Buyout

Many Gulf Arab lenders have looked at buying big banks in Indonesia, where there was a difference between what the lenders were prepared to pay and the valuations, said Makary, 31. Qatar National Bank followed a different strategy by acquiring its stake through a rights offer at par, which doubled the lender’s capital, said Makary, who has worked at ABN Amro Bank NV in the U.S. and Egyptian investment bank EFG-Hermes Holdings SAE. 

“There are a lot of people hunting in Indonesia,” Makary said. Arqaam will look for buyers not just from the Middle East because, he said, “the Japanese are looking, the Indians are looking, the Koreans are looking. Source: Reuters

Indonesia to delay plans to limit fuel subsidies

Indonesia will delay its plans to limit fuel subsidies and has no plan to increase the price, chief economic minister Hatta Rajasa said on Monday.

"The government has decided to delay it," Rajasa said, without mentioning the timeline.
A government official said earlier the government had decided to delay scrapping fuel subsidies for private cars until July 1.

Indonesia, a founding member of OPEC but now an importer of fuel, heavily subsidises the pump price for consumers and the issue has become a political football at a time inflation is rising -- partly on the back of soaring oil prices. Source: Reuters

Indonesia's domestic motorcycle sales in Feb up 13.4 pct y/y

Indonesia's domestic motorcycle sales, an indicator of consumer demand in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, rose 13.4 percent in February versus the same month last year, industry data showed.


Domestic motorcycle sales volumes of 610,182 units were led by Honda , Yamaha and Suzuki , according to data from Indonesia's Motorcycle Industry (AISI).
Sales volume in February declined 8.2 percent compared to January. Source: Reuters

Para Group aims to build 20 new theme parks across Indonesia

Para Group, one of Indonesia's emerging conglomerates, plans to build 20 new theme parks across the archipelago by 2020, Chairul Tanjung, the CEO of the group, said on Monday.

Para had secured $450 million of syndicated loans from nine banks including Citibank and Standard Chartered Bank this month to refinance the group's existing debt as well as for its capital expenditure, Tanjung said. Source: Reuters

Indonesia Feb tin exports fall 11.6 pct yr/yr-ministry

Indonesia's refined tin exports fell nearly 12 percent in February from a year ago as rains hampered mining, trade ministry data showed on Monday, with the lower shipments from the world's top tin exporter likely to support prices. 

Three-month tin on the London Metal Exchange hit a record high above $32,000 a tonne in mid-February because of supply concerns in Indonesia. The price has since eased to below $30,000, but is still up around 10 percent so far this year. 

Indonesia shipped 6,181.42 tonnes in February this year, compared to 6,994.01 tonnes in the same month a year ago. "Rains still occur in Bangka-Belitung islands, hampering supply of tin ore," said an official at the trade ministry who declined to be named.

The State Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency has said that the main tin-producing Bangka-Belitung islands will not have drier weather until July. Source: Reuters

Indonesia still plans Samurai bond for 2nd half of 2011

Indonesia's finance ministry said on Monday that it still plans to issue a yen-denominated Samurai bond in the second half of 2011 despite Japan's devastating earthquake and tsunami of last week.

"Every plan to issue debt, including Samurai, is always evaluated every time because timings and market conditions determine prices," debt office chief Rahmat Waluyanto told Reuters.

"The Samurai is still planned for the second half and the government has lots of alternative financial instruments that can be issued in domestic or abroad with different currencies." Source: Reuters

Bumi sees coal price and demand rising after Japan quake

PT Bumi Resources , Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, sees coal prices and demand going up in the medium term after the Japan's devastating earthquake of Friday, Dileep Srivastava, a company director, said on Monday.

The need to reconstruct and the possible subtitution to coal power generation from nuclear plants could be the main catalysts, he said.
Japan is the number one buyer of Indonesian coal and Japanese customers accounted for 21 percent of Bumi's sales in 2011. Source: Reuters

Saudi's STC to increase stake in Indonesia's NTS

* Saudi Telecom to raise stake in Indonesia's NTS
* To provide loans of $81 mln, followed by $290 mln 

Saudi Telecom Co (STC) said on Saturday it planned to rase its share in its affiliate NTS in Indonesia to 80 percent, and lend it more than $370 million, as it readies to expand in the Indonesian market. 

Natrindo Telepon Selular (NTS Indonesia), now 51 percent owned by STC and 44 percent owned by Malaysia's Maxis Communications Bhd (MCB) , has set up a five-year plan to expand in Indonesia's telecom market, STC said in a bourse statement. 

"Saudi Telecom has shown interest in taking this opportunity to increase its shares in (NTS) due to the growth prospects in the Indonesian economy," STC said. 

"It agreed on Wednesday to give an initial loan of $81 million, followed by another loan of $290 million to be paid according to the firm's operational needs," the firm said. 

The deal will cancel all the loans made to NTS by Maxis Communications, amounting to almost $412 million, and increase STC's stake to 80.1 percent from 51 percent. 

Maxis Communications' share will fall to 14.9 percent from 44 percent, while the local partner will maintain a 5 percent stake.

The deal has yet to be approved by the Indonesian regulators. 

NTS began its mobile phone services in 2008 and has more than 10 million customers, covering 400 cities in Indonesia, the statement added.Source: Reuters

Rating BTN Naik Jadi idAA

PT Perusahaan Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) menaikkan peringkat PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BTN) dari idAA- menjadi idAA untuk perusahaan dan obligasi yang diterbitkan.

Wakil Direktur Utama Evi Firmansyah di Jakarta, Sabtu (12/3), mengatakan, peringkat Bank BTN untuk kategori perusahaan naik dari idAA- menjadi idAA. Demikian halnya dengan obligasi yang diterbitkan Bank BTN, masing-masing Obligasi XII tahun 2006, Obligasi XIII tahun 2009 dan Obligasi XIV tahun 2010 mendapatkan peringkat dari idAA- menjadi idAA, kata Evi.

Pefindo menyatakan peringkat idAA dan prospek yang stabil. Untuk peningkatan rating yang diberikan terhadap perusahaan, Pefindo melihat Bank BTN memiliki kemampuan untuk memperkuat bisnis dan kinerja serta profitabilitas perusahaan.

Obligasi yang diterbitkan Bank BTN juga mempunyai prospek yang stabil karena didukung perseroan yang memiliki kemampuan sangat kuat dibanding perusahaan di Indonesia lainnya untuk memenuhi kewajiban finansial atas efek hutang yang diterbitkan tersebut.

Kemampuan perseroan untuk memenuhi kewajiban finansial atas efek utang yang diterbitkan tidak terlalu terpengaruh oleh memburuknya perkembangan perekonomian, bisnis dan keuangan.

Evi menyambut positif hasil rating Pefindo tersebut. Pasca IPO Bank BTN memang telah melakukan banyak kegiatan menyangkut perbaikan baik dari sisi kualitas maupun kuantitas yang diharapkan dapat mendorong kinerja perseroan.   "Rating Pefindo ini adalah salah satu hasil dari apa yang sudah kami kerjakan tersebut," tegas Evi Firmansyah.

Lebih lanjut Evi menjelaskan bahwa kenaikan peringkat tersebut mencerminkan menguatnya posisi usaha perseroan dan membaiknya indikator profitabilitas. Dengan rating ini maka terbuka peluang bagi perseroan untuk mendapatkan dana murah lebih banyak sehingga diharapkan perseroan dapat meningkatkan rasio NIM (net interest margin).

Peningkatan rating terhadap perseroan tersebut menurut Evi Firmansyah juga dikarenakan oleh adanya dukungan yang sangat kuat dari Pemerintah selaku pemegang saham pengendali.
Di sisi lain posisi Bank BTN yang sangat kuat di sektor pembiayaan perumahan dengan modal perseroan yang sangat kuat juga mendukung meningkatnya peringkat tersebut.

Bank BTN merupakan pelopor pembiayaan perumahan. Perseroan saat ini menjadi pemimpin pasar dengan pangsa pasar 27% untuk seluruh KPR. Bank BTN posisinya juga masih sangat kuat karena masih menguasai pasar KPR subsidi dengan pangsa pasar 97%. Perseroan juga telah mempelopori sekuritisasi KPR di Indonesia dan telah sukses melakukan transaksi sekuritisasi yang pertama di Indonesia pada 2009.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 14 Maret 2011

Untuk perdagangann Senin, 14 Maret 2011, HD Capital merekomendasikan opsi beli terhadap saham Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Bank Mandiri (BMRI), Adaro Energy (ADRO), dan Astra International (ASII).

BUY: BBRI, BMRI, ADRO, ASII

* Koreksi yang terjadi akibat penurunan regional & tsunami di Jepang membuat beberepa big cap index movers, menarik kembali untuk akumulasi dalam koreksi sehat akibat keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) ini.

* Walaupun asing net sell tipis, namun rupiah tetap stabil di kisaran 8,780-8,850.

* IHSG close (11-03) 3.542.35 (-45.27/-1.27%) (Val.Rp.2.9T)

* Support: 3.530-3.450-3.350, Resistance: 3.580-3.650-3.750

Stock picks:

1. Bank BRI (BBRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 5.350) (close 11/03 Rp 5.150)

* Suku bunga tetap akan sangat menguntungkan emiten perbankan di sector mikro UKM yang diperdagangkan di valuasi PER 2011F 13x/PBV 2.78x ini dalam mencapai target pertumbuhan kredit di atas 23% tahun ini.

* Struktur sumber pendanaan yang murah membuat emiten ini tidak perlu melakukan rights issue atau issue obligasi sub-debt tambahan untuk mencari dana.

* Entry: (1) Rp 5.050, Entry (2) Rp 4.950, Cut loss point: Rp 4.800

2. Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.350)(Close 11/03 Rp 6.150)

* Beberapa katalis seperti tersedianya dana untuk ekspansi pasca rights issue, keuntungan dari IPO Garuda di harga Rp 750 (di atas perhitungan awal Rp 500), menguatnya rupiah yang memberikan efek positif ke utang corporate dalam US$ serta optimisme pertumbuhan kredit di atas 23% untuk 2011 dapat memicu BMRI untuk keluar dari pola sideways dan resume uptrend kembali.

* Entry: (1) Rp 6.050, Entry (2) 5.950, Cut loss point: Rp 5.850

3. ADRO Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.450) (Close 11/03 Rp 2.325)

* Musim kemarau diperkirakan mulai lebih awal yaitu bulan Mei, sehingga potensi penurunan produksi akibat curah hujan seperti tahun lalu tidak akan terulang.

* Secara technical menarik dilirik pada pullback ke price gap di Rp 2.300-2.250.

* Entry: (1) Rp 2.300, Entry: (2) Rp 2.250, Cut loss point: Rp 2.175

4. Astra International (ASII): (BUY) (Target: Rp 55.200) (Close 11/03 Rp 54.400)

* Beberapa katalis positif seperti naiknya profit di 2010 sebesar 43%, tren penjualan mobil yang masih akan ditopang oleh bunga tetap dan penundaan pembatasan subsidi BBM dividen Rp 1.130/saham menjadi alasan untuk melakukan buy on weakness dalam koreksi akibat keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) pasca kenaikan yang tajam selama sepekan lebih.

* Entry: (1) Rp 53.400, Entry (2) Rp 52.200, Cut loss point: Rp 51.500

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)