Tin price hits another fresh high at US$31,049 per tonne

KUALA LUMPUR: The Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) hit another fresh high of US$31,049 per tonne today, following strong demand for the metal, mainly from Europe, dealers said.

The tin price on the KLTM surged US$999 from last Wednesday's closing of US$30,050 per tonne.

They said the gain was also in line with the firmer London Metal Exchange (LME) price of tin which rose US$1,090 to US$31,250 a tonne last Friday,sparking buying interest on the local market.

The KLTM was closed for the Chinese New Year celebration last Thursday and Friday.

At the opening level buyers bid for 190 tonnes while sellers offered 30 tonnes.

Turnover was unchanged at 75 tonnes with the participation of Japanese, European and local traders.

Meanwhile, the price differential between the KLTM and LME, narrowed to a premium of US$215 a tonne, against US$310 a tonne previously. Source: the Star online

UPDATE 1-Indonesia's Timah says refined tin production dips, profit up

* Tin prices to peak in 2014, says Timah president

* Timah declines to give forecasts for 2011

* 1.2 trillion rupiah investment scheme for 2011

Indonesia's state-owned PT Timah , the world's largest integrated tin miner, said on Monday that refined tin production fell 10 percent last year, although profits more than doubled due to soaring global prices. 

The miner's refined tin production in 2010 was 40,413 tonnes, down from 45,086 tonnes in 2009. It posted 802.4 billion rupiah ($89.2 million) in 2010 net profit, more than double its 313.8 billion rupiah ($34.9 million) the previous year. 

"The higher net profit was due to higher tin prices," Timah President-Director Wachid Usman told reporters. The firm declined to give production forecasts for 2011. 

Timah in December forecast 2010 production at 40,000 tonnes, down from an earlier projection of 45,000-50,000 tonnes after heavy rains hampered mining.

Its refined tin sales in 2010 fell 18 percent to 40,302 tonnes, down from sales of 49,240 tonnes of refined tin in 2009. 

The miner also said it expects a 2011 net profit of around 1 trillion rupiah ($111.2 million).

Tin prices have tracked copper to fresh record highs this month, supported by supply shortages from top producer Indonesia. 

On Friday, benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange closed up $655 at $31,200, off an earlier record peak of $31,300.

"The higher tin prices have enticed other miners to come out and start to mine more tin," said an analyst on Timah, who declined to be identified as his firm had not authorised him to speak to the media. "Secondly the weather last year has been playing havoc with the mining. 

"Timah's production will probably stay around the level it is," he added. "Timah are looking for the higher premium material ... They aren't focused on spitting out as much tin as possible." 

Indonesia, the world's top tin exporter, will limit annual output to a maximum of 100,000 tonnes if record high prices set off a scramble for the metal, a senior mining official said late last month.

"The price is expected to continue increasing this year and will reach its peak by 2014," Usman added. Timah sees 2011 tin prices to be between $25,000-$30,000 a tonne.

A Reuters survey published late in January showed analysts expecting a deficit of 15,000 tonnes in the tin market this year. 

The average of 24 forecasts showed the cash tin price would average $27,000 a tonne this year, and rise to $27,419 next year.

Indonesia, which supplies nearly 30 percent of the world's tin consumption, produced an estimated 105,000 tonnes in 2010.

Tin consultants ITRI last month estimated 2010 global tin consumption at 360,300 tonnes, up 12.5 percent. 

Demand for the metal, used in electronics, plating and lead-free solders, is seen rising in the coming years, while analysts have for months forecast that Indonesian output will fail to keep pace due to a lack of investment in mining. 

In addition, a crackdown on illegal mining since 2006, tighter export regulations, declining onshore reserves and rainy weather have all hindered production in Indonesia.

Usman said the company expected to spend 1.2 trillion rupiah ($133,444,537.114) in investment in 2011. 

"They will need to invest more to secure their raw material supplies -- dredges will be the natural choice," the analyst said. "In the total amount that needs to be spent, it's very low." ($1=8,992.500 Indonesian rupiah). Source: Reuters

Wilmar to invest $900 mln in palm oil product plants in Indonesia

Singapore's Wilmar , the world's largest listed palm oil firm, will invest $900 million to build factories producing products from palm oil in Indonesia, an Indonesian government minister said on Monday.

"Wilmar will build six factories of CPO end products such as soap and margarine. The company will start to build in the first quarter this year,' said Minister of Industry M.S Hidayat. Source: Reuters

Indonesia Economy Grows at Fastest Pace in Six Years

Indonesia’s economy grew at the fastest pace in six years last quarter, extending an expansion that may prompt the central bank to raise interest rates further after its first increase since 2008 to curb price pressures.

 

Gross domestic product rose 6.9 percent in the three months through December from a year earlier, compared with 5.82 percent previously reported for the third quarter, the Central Bureau of Statistics said in Jakarta today. That was higher than the 6.3 percent median estimate of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. GDP increased 6.1 percent in 2010.

Indonesia joins counterparts from China to Singapore in reporting accelerating growth in the fourth quarter as Asia weathers risks including elevated U.S. unemployment and strives to restrain inflation. Economists from UBS AG and Royal Bank of Canada are among those predicting the nation’s borrowing costs will rise to 8 percent this year, following a quarter percentage-point increase to 6.75 percent last week.

“Inflation clearly outweighs growth risks,” Chua Hak Bin, a Singapore-based economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said before the report. “Indonesia’s strong export growth is being supported by surging commodity prices, including on oil and coal prices. We expect growth to remain resilient.”

Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark reference rate on Feb. 4 from a record low. It had previously resisted higher rates to avoid attracting more foreign capital inflows, while opting to increase lenders’ reserve requirements and tightening rules on banks’ foreign-exchange holdings to help curb price gains.

Inflation Risk

The Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.4 percent as of 11:13 a.m. local time. It had slid 8 percent as of Feb. 3 from its Dec. 9 record high on concern the central bank has fallen behind regional peers in boosting rates to cool inflation. The rupiah strengthened for a fifth day to 8,973 per dollar.

Consumer confidence rose in January from December, with a central bank index climbing 4.6 points to 113.9, the highest level since August 2009. Indonesians were more optimistic on the outlook for income, the economy and employment than any time since September 2009, a separate index measuring expectations showed.

The nation’s growth has made companies more confident about raising prices as commodity costs increase. PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur boosted the price of its instant noodles by 100 rupiah a pack last month.

Growth Objective

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono seeks to expand the economy at an annual average rate of 6.6 percent and create 10.7 million jobs by the end of his second term in 2014, including through attempts to boost investment in the country’s infrastructure. Foreign and domestic investment in Indonesia totaled 208.5 trillion rupiah ($23 billion) in 2010, Investment Coordinating Board Chairman Gita Wirjawan said Jan. 23.

Indian and Indonesian companies last month signed accords worth about $15 billion to build airports, steel plants, a railway line and ports in the Southeast Asian nation. Indonesia will seek bids for 50 new oil and gas blocks in 2011 through tenders and direct offers to help boost output, the Energy and Minerals Resources Ministry said last year.

Moody’s Investors Service upgraded the credit rating of Southeast Asia’s largest economy on Jan. 17 to the highest level since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, citing the nation’s “economic resilience” and improving public debt position.

Indonesia is less dependent on exports compared with its neighbors, suggesting it may be more resilient to fluctuations in global business cycles. The International Monetary Fund predicts the economy will expand more than 6 percent this year.

Reducing Poverty

The government’s target to lift more people out of poverty in a country where the World Bank estimates 29 percent of the population earn less than $2 a day has boosted consumer spending and imports. The central bank had refrained from raising rates since 2008 to support the growth push.

Higher borrowing costs may help anchor inflation expectations and support the rupiah and longer-term bonds, according to Citigroup Inc. Consumer-price growth accelerated to a 21-month high of 7.02 percent in January, from 6.96 percent in December.

In a statement announcing its rate decision this month, Bank Indonesia said it will keep a “close watch on future inflation developments and strengthen the rupiah exchange-rate policy in line with measures to curb future inflationary pressures.”

The central bank expects inflation to be in the range of 4 percent to 6 percent this year and forecasts the economy will probably expand by 6 percent to 6.5 percent in 2011. Indonesia’s exports may rise 12 percent to $168 billion this year, Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa said Jan. 3. Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia fourth-quarter GDP expands 6.9%

Indonesia's gross domestic product expanded a faster-than-expected 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2010 from the year-earlier period, resulting in a full-year growth of 6.1%, according to reports. The quarterly expansion compares with an estimated increase of 6.3% in a survey compiled by FactSet Research. 

However, the Southeast Asian country's GDP contracted 1.4% in the quarter ended Dec. 31 as compared with the July-to-September period, although even that contraction was better than the 2.1% decline estimated in a Reuters poll. The stronger GDP data comes after Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rates by 0.25 percentage point to 6.75% last week to cool inflationary pressures. Source: Marketwatch

Timah says refined tin sales drop 18 pct in 2010

Indonesia's state-owned PT Timah , the world's largest integrated tin miner, said on Monday that its refined tin sales in 2010 fell 18 percent to 40,302 tonnes.


Timah in December forecast 2010 production at 40,000 tonnes, down from an earlier projection of 45-50,000 tonnes after heavy rains hampered mining. It sold 49,240 tonnes of refined tin in 2009.

Tin prices have tracked copper to fresh record highs this month, supported by supply shortages from top producer Indonesia. Source: Reuters

Indonesia's Timah sees 2010 profit double on tin price surge

Indonesia's state-owned PT Timah , the world's largest integrated tin miner, said on Monday that it posted 802.4 billion rupiah in 2010 net profit, more than double its 313.8 billion rupiah profit the previous year as tin prices surged.


Tin prices have tracked copper to fresh record highs this month as supply shortages from top producer Indonesia have supported prices. Source: Reuters

Riset Kalbe Farma oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset Kalbe Farma oleh NISP Sekuritas. Sepanjang 2010, Kalbe Farma membukukan pendapatan Rp 10,2 triliun, naik 12,2% dari tahun 2009. Sedangkan laba bersihnya melonjak 37,1% menjadi Rp 1,27 triliun.

Riset Kalbe Farma Oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset Agung Podomoro oleh Indo Premier Sekuritas

Riset Agung Pomodoro oleh Indo Premier Sekuritas. Pada akhir 2010, perseroan memperoleh penjualan sekitar Rp 5 triliun atau Rp 5,26 triliun berdasarkan kalkulasi Indo Premier.

Target harga adalah Rp 480/saham.

Riset Agung Podomoro Oleh Indo Premier Sekuritas

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 7 Februari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari empat sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Senin, 7 Februari 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan Jumat (4/2), IHSG ditutup naik 15 poin (0,44%) ke level 3.496,17. Transaksi masih relatif sepi, karena masih dalam suasana libur Imlek, yaitu hanya Rp 2,7 triliun. Indeks sempat turun pada sesi pertama, namun menguat pada sesi berikutnya dipicu kenaikan BI rate sebesar 25 bps menjadi 6,75%. Asing tercatat melakukan net selling Rp 61 miliar dengan sektor yang paling banyak keluar adalah banking, automotif, dan cement. Secara teknikal terlihat, indeks masih berada pada fase konsolidasi dan pada Senin (7/2) diperkirakan akan bergerak di kisaran 3.441-3.536. Cermati AALI, PGAS dan INTP.

2. Kresna Sekurindo

IHSG bergerak konsolidasi menjelang pengumuman BI rate dan menguat setelah BI menaikkan BI rate menjadi 6,75%. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan masih akan menguji area resistance dengan bergerak di 3.470-3.550. TLKM dan PGAS menjadi saham pilihan kami.

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Pada perdagangan hari ini, indeks masih cenderung bergerak sideways dengan kecenderungan menguat. Indeks diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran 3.465-3.510. Naiknya BI rate ke level 6,75% direspons positif oleh pasar. Selain itu, indeks hari ini juga akan dipengaruhi oleh pergerakan bursa global. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain SMGR, TLKM, PGAS, BBNI.

4. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Indeks hari ini diprediksi berfluktuasi menguat dengan potensi profit taking pada kisaran 3.473-3.514. Buy BBNI, WIKA, hold BBCA, BBTN, ITMG, TLKM, dan jual AKRA dan SMCB.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 7 Februari 2011

HD Capital merekomendasikan beli terhadap empat saham pilihannya, yakni Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID), PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA), Adaro Energy (ADRO), dan PT Timah (TINS).

BUY: DOID,  PTBA, ADRO, TINS

• Penutupan IHSG di atas 3.475 secara mingguan di hari Jumat menandakan bahwa telah terjadi penembusan dari downtrend channel yang terlah terjadi sejak seminggu lebih dan sekarang pola arah pasar memasuki short-term up-trend menuju 3.600.

• Pasar melakukan "sell on rumor and buy on fact":  Setelah sebelumnya didera profit taking beberapa pekan lalu akibat ketakutan BI rate naik ke 6.75%, berita naiknya bunga terlihat sudah terdiskons di harga.

• Berubahnya iklim suku bunga membuat kita lebih fokus ke saham sektor komoditas terutama batubara

• IHSG close (04-02) 3.496.17 (+15.30/+0.44%) (Val.Rp.3.6T)

• Support: 3.475-3.390-3.300, Resistance: 3.530-3.650

 

Stock picks:

 

1.    Delta Dunia   (DOID): (BUY) (Target: Rp 1.430) (close 04/02 Rp 1.340)

• Beberapa katalis positif seperti pembalikan arah yang diperkirakan terjadi tahun sehingga dapat membuka jalan untuk restrukturisasi utang dengan biaya bunga lebih rendah dan bertambahnya kontrak untuk penambangan batubara yang permintaan makin meninggi membuat saham ini bertahan di atas level support crucial di Rp 1.300.

• Kelihatannya sebuat upward retracement akan terjadi untuk DOID pasca konsolidasi yang terjadi selama sepekan ini.

• Entry: (1) Rp 1.330, Entry (2) Rp 1.300, Cut loss point: Rp 1.270

 

2.   Adaro Energy  (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.550) (Close 02/02 Rp 2.450)

• Bila terjadi koreksi untuk menutup price gap bawah di Rp 2.400 rekomen akumulasi karena skenario untuk mencoba mengetes resistance berikutnya di down-trend-line Rp 2.550 masih berjalan.

• Secara fundamental fair value saham ini seharusnya berada di atas Rp 2.700 dengan PER 16x/PBV 3.7x 2011F.

• Entry (1) Rp 2.400, (2) Rp 2.300, Cut loss point: Rp 2.200

 

3.   PT  Bukit Asam  (PTBA) (BUY): (Target: Rp 21.500) (Close 04/02 Rp 20.300)

• Potensi kenaikan harga batubara dalam negeri terutama low calorie  akibat lambannya izin explorasi, proyek rel kereta api ganda yang diperkirakan  rampung di 2012, serta valuasi yang menjadi menarik pasca koreksi dari high Rp 25.000 yang tercetak beberapa bulan lalu merupakan katalis untuk akumulasi emiten batubara dengan ROE/NPM tertinggi setelah ITMG.

• Entry: (1) Rp 20.100, Entry: (2) Rp 19.700, Cut loss point: Rp 19.300

 

4.    Tambang Timah (TINS): (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.975) (Close 04/02 Rp 2.850)

• Recovery industri elektronik dan mobil di Amerika serta bagian lainnya di dunia dapat meningkatkan permintaan untuk timah solder, dimana tahun ini para analis optimistis bahwa Tambang Timah akan memulai proses earnings recovery turnaround setelah sebelumnya kurang bersinar di 2010.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.800, Entry (2) Rp 2.700, Cut loss point: Rp 2.600

 

 

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Oil price breaks above $100; copper, tin hit record highs

Brent crude surged above $100 this week, while copper and tin futures struck record highs as a cocktail of violent unrest in Egypt and strong Chinese demand for raw materials fuelled investor appetite .

Commodities were also bolstered by upbeat manufacturing data from Germany and the United States that sparked hope of a strengthening global economic recovery. Sugar futures soared as cyclone Yasi bore down on Australia.

OIL: Prices stood above the key $100 mark in London on Monday for the first time in more than two years and went on to surpass $103 a barrel as the market was hit by concerns over the impact of Egypt unrest on global energy supplies.

Brent oil blazed a trail to $103.37 on Thursday -- reaching the highest level since September 26, 2008. However, the market remains far below record highs of above $147 that were hit in July 2008 on supply disruption fears.

Crude futures spiked higher on the back of violent protests in Egypt that have raised serious concerns about the security of energy supplies travelling via the Suez canal to the West.

Egyptian protestors massed on Friday for sweeping "departure day" demonstrations, in an attempt to force President Hosni Mubarak to quit after he said he would like to step down but fears chaos would result.

Tens of thousands filled Cairo's central Tahrir Square, the epicentre of the 11 straight days of protests that have shaken the pillars of Mubarak's three-decade rule, on the Muslim day of rest.

"Oil markets are still on edge regarding possible worsening of turmoil centred on Egypt," said Brenda Sullivan, an analyst at Sucden brokers.

While Egypt is not a major crude producer, the country is home to the Suez Canal, which carries about 2.4 million barrels daily, roughly equal to Iraq's output.

"Thus far transit through Egypt has not been seen to have been affected, but the risk to transport as well as the risk of supply disruptions in other nations in the region are likely to continue as a major factor in the energy markets for some time," added Sullivan.

Traders are also concerned about the wider ramifications of the events in Egypt on the oil-rich but politically volatile Middle East.

Research house Capital Economics said oil prices were also being buoyed by strong global energy demand.

"The bulk of the rise in oil prices over the last few months reflects buoyant global demand rather than uncertainty in the Middle East," it said in a research note.

Analysts meanwhile expect the spread in the price between Brent crude and the benchmark New York contract to widen further because of oversupply in the US port of Cushing, Oklahoma.

By Friday afternoon on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in March leapt to $101.60 a barrel from $99.34 a week earlier.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Texas light sweet crude for March delivery jumped to $90.73 a barrel from $88.75.

BASE METALS

Copper prices topped $10,000 for the first time and went on to hit a record high $10,100 a tonne Friday on growing worldwide economic optimism and concerns about the impact of an Australian cyclone on stretched supplies.

"Copper prices continue to soar," said Ian O'Sullivan, an analyst at traders Spread Co. in London.

"Cyclone Yasi in Australia has added pressure to copper prices, with (mining company) Xstrata evacuating the largest copper mine in Australia ahead of the storm.

"But the key drivers have been the strong PMI manufacturing numbers out of the US, Europe, and especially China, the world's largest consumer of copper."

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, a top-category storm, hit the Australian coast early Thursday, packing destructive winds.

Copper is also being propelled by tight global supplies of the industrial metal, which is used in plumbing, heating, electrical and telecommunications wiring.

Tin meanwhile struck an all-time peak of $31,300 a tonne, driven by supply concerns in key producer Indonesia.

By late Friday on the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper for delivery in three months surged to $10,060 a tonne from $9,628 a week earlier.

Three-month aluminium jumped to $2,540 a tonne from $2,470.

Three-month lead grew to $2,577 a tonne from $2,460.

Three-month tin gained to $31,050 a tonne from $29,650 a week earlier.

Three-month zinc increased to $2,504 a tonne from $2,340.

Three-month nickel advanced to $28,185 a tonne from $26,890.

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold prices rebounded, helped by unrest in Egypt, with the metal viewed as a safe-haven investment.

The glamourous commodity had hit a record 1,431.25 dollars on December 7, also boosted by its safe-haven status as investors fretted over the eurozone debt crisis.  Source: Reuters

By late Friday on the London Bullion Market, gold grew to $1,355 an ounce from $1,334.50 a week earlier.

Copper Climbs to Record on Concern Demand Will Outstrip Supplies

Copper extended a rally to a record on mounting concern that the global economic recovery will boost consumption of the metal used in cars, homes and appliances while mining companies struggle to increase output. 

Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world’s largest publicly traded producer, said the market will be “tight in 2011, and for the foreseeable future.” The metal has more than tripled since the end of 2008 on rising demand from China, the world’s largest buyer. In the U.S., the second-biggest user, unemployment fell in January to the lowest level since April 2009, the Labor Department said today. 

“Demand for copper continues to be robust and growing,” said James Dailey, who manages $185 million at TEAM Financial Asset Management LLC in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. “Bringing copper production online is very costly and protracted, so it may be some time before production levels are able to grow fast enough to offset the growth in demand.” 

Copper futures for March delivery rose 3.5 cents, or 0.8 percent, to close at $4.5795 a pound at 1:26 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price reached a record $4.614. The metal is up 4.7 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain since Dec. 3. 

The global supply deficit will reach 822,000 metric tons in 2011, more than double last year’s shortfall, Barclays Capital said on Jan. 20. JPMorgan Securities Ltd. and Macquarie Bank Ltd. also predicted a deficit, and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and Morgan Stanley have boosted their price forecasts. 

China Demand
“We have continuing strong demand out of China and the prospects of continued recovery in the U.S. and in parts of Europe,” Kathleen Quirk, Freeport’s chief financial officer, said yesterday in a telephone interview from Phoenix. “That is also overlaid on a situation where supply is very limited. Our industry hasn’t been able to expand capacity fast enough to meet the demand.” 

Copper for three-month delivery added $120, or 1.2 percent, to $10,050 a ton ($4.56 a pound) on the London Metal Exchange. Earlier, the metal climbed to $10,100, the highest ever. 

Also in London, tin climbed 2.1 percent to $31,200 a ton after reaching a record $31,300. Prices are up 16 percent this year. PT Timah, the biggest supplier of the metal, said on Jan. 14 its production may drop for a fourth straight year in 2011.
Aluminum, lead, nickel and zinc rose. Source: Bloomberg

Sierad Produce Reverse Stock Sepuluh Kali

PT Sierad Produce Tbk (SIPD), produsen ayam ketiga terbesar nasional setelah CPIN dan JPFA, berencana melakukan reverse stock (penggabungan saham) sebesar 10 kali. Rencana ini akan diminta persetujuan pemegang saham pada rapat umum pemegang saham luar biasa 11 Maret 2011.

Jika disetujui, reverse stock akan dilakukan terhadap saham seri A  dari semula nominalnya Rp 395 menjadi Rp 3.950/saham. Saham seri B semula Rp 395 menjadi Rp 3.950 dan saham seri C dari Rp 100 menjadi Rp 1.000/saham.

Berbeda dengan stock split yang akan membuat harga saham naik karena menguntungkan pemegang saham mengingat kepemilikan sahamnya akan bertambah, reverse stock justru menjadi momok bagi pemegang saham. Pasalnya, jumlah saham yang dimiliki akan berkurang dan biasanya saham hasil reverse stock bakal turun.

Kemarin, saham SIPD turun 9,68% atau Rp 6 menjadi Rp 56. Harga saham ini dalam setahun terakhir (52 minggu) bergerak di kisaran Rp 50-84.

Indonesia's cbank expects GDP growth at 6.4 pct in Q1

Indonesia's central bank said on Friday that it was confident GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011 would be 6.4 percent and it would continue to check inflation in coming months.
 
The central bank, which raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 bps to 6.75 percent on Friday, said it would also intervene to strengthen the rupiah in another effort to reduce inflationary pressures. Source: Reuters

Indonesia Unexpectedly Raises Main Rate First Time Since 2008

Indonesia’s central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in more than two years after inflation climbed to a 21-month high.

The central bank increased its reference rate by a quarter percentage point, to 6.75 percent, Deputy Governor Halim Alamsyah told reporters today in Jakarta. The move, the first since October 2008, was predicted by only six of 22 economists. The rest forecast the measure to be kept unchanged at the lowest level since its introduction in July 2005.

The rupiah, Asia’s third-worst performing currency in the past year, erased losses after Indonesia joined Asian nations from India to Thailand and South Korea in increasing rates. Indonesia may have more room to boost rates even at the risk of attracting more currency inflows, with the rupiah having risen only 3.6 percent in the past 12 months, less than a third of the gain in the Malaysian and Singapore currencies.

“Bank Indonesia has correctly addressed that it is important to act now,” said Vishnu Varathan, a Singapore-based economist at Capital Economics (Asia) Pte. “Investors capitulating from the asset markets on fears Bank Indonesia is caught behind the curve will find assurance that it is acting to curb inflation.”

The rupiah was at 9,009 per dollar at 1:41 p.m. local time compared with 9,030 before the announcement. The Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.4 percent before it closed for lunch, when the decision was announced. It has slid 8 percent from its Dec. 9 record high as investors were concerned the central bank has fallen behind regional peers in boosting rates to slow inflation.

Regional Trend
The Reserve Bank of India on Jan. 25 raised rates for the seventh time in a year, boosting its repurchase rate by a quarter-point to 6.5 percent. Thailand’s central bank increased the one-day bond repurchase rate on Jan. 12 for the fourth time since the start of July, lifting it to 2.25 percent. The Bank of Korea raised its benchmark on Jan. 13 for the third time since the global financial crisis.

With Indonesia’s rate increase today, the Philippines is the only major Southeast Asian economies using interest rate as a policy tool that hasn’t raised its rate.

Consumer prices in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, rose 7.02 percent in January from a year earlier, the most since April 2009 and exceeding the 6.81 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Core inflation was 4.18 percent in January, easing from 4.28 percent the previous month.

Higher Reserves
Among the steps the central bank had taken so far to control inflation was to order lenders to set aside 5 percent of their total foreign-exchange holdings as reserves from March this year, from 1 percent currently. Bank Indonesia will also reintroduce a 30 percent cap on lenders’ short-term overseas borrowing to minimize the risk of sudden capital outflows.

Inflation erodes the spending power of the poor. The World Bank estimates 29 percent of Indonesians earn less than $2 a day.

Growth Target
The central bank refrained from raising rates as President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono targeted annual average economic growth of 6.6 percent through the remainder of his term ending in 2014. Companies from PT Bank Pan Indonesia to AirAsia Bhd. are counting on rising demand in the world’s fourth-most populous nation to boost their businesses.

Indonesia’s economy grew 6.3 percent last quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from a 5.8 percent rate in the three months through September, according to the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The government will release fourth-quarter economic data on Feb. 7.

Indonesian stocks’ decline is a buying opportunity as the rural-based economy will benefit from rising commodity prices, Wilianto Ie, an analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc., said last month. Concerns about inflation getting out of hand due to “policy slippage” are unfounded and the slump in Indonesia stocks is a “window of opportunity,” said Mun Hon Tham, an analyst at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia Economic Briefing oleh Bank Danamon

Indonesia Economic Briefing oleh Bank Danamon.

Indonesia Economic Briefing by Bank Danamon

Riset XL Axiata oleh OSK

Riset XL Axiata oleh OSK.Target harga 2011 dinaikkan dari semula Rp 6.300 menjadi Rp 6.500.

Riset XL Axiata Oleh OSK

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 4 Februari 2011

Untuk perdagangan Jumat, 4 Februari 2011, HD Capital merekomendasikan opsi beli terhadap empat saham pilihannya, yakni Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI), Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG), Borneo Lumbung Energy & Metal (BORN), dan Astra International (ASII).

BUY: ASRI, ITMG, BORN,ASII

• Bila terjadi koreksi akibat profit taking pasca libur kemarin rekomen akumulasi karena BI rate tetap menjamin likuiditas terpompa ke market 

• Penutupan kembali di atas garis down-trend-line baru di 3.475 akan mendorong breakout ke atas dari tren turun yang sedang berlangsung

• Minyak  yang masih di atas $90/b menyarankan kita untuk memperhatikan sektor batubara

• IHSG close (02-02) 3.480.83 (+38.03/+1.11%) (Val.Rp.4.6T)

• Support: 3.475-3.390-3.300, Resistance: 3.530-3.650

 

Stock picks:

 

1.    Alam Sutera  (ASRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 270) (close 02/02 Rp 245)

• Rencana kenaikan harga semen tahun ini akan memaksa para developer menaikan harga jual rumah dimana demand tetap tinggi dengan catatan BI rate masih kondusif

• ASRI merupakan emiten dengan NPM tertinggi di sektornya (28%) akibat efisiensi operasional yang tepat dan dengan perhitungan NAVS (net asset value) di atas Rp 300.

• Entry: (1) Rp 240, Entry (2) Rp 230, Cut loss point: Rp 215

 

2.   Indo Tambang Raya (ITMG) (BUY): (Target: Rp 49.000) (Close 02/02 Rp 47.400)

• Penutupan di atas level pskilogis Rp 47.000 positif untuk emiten yang bermain di sektor batubara dengan spesialis high calorie coal.

• Selain kontribusi dari akuisisi tambang pada 2010 yang akan terlihat dalam earnings Q1 2011, perseroan berencana membangun pembangkit listrik untuk power converyor belt yang dapat offset tingginya cost diesel fuel akibat kenaikan minyak mentah di atas $90/b.

• Entry (1) Rp 47.000, (2) Rp 46.200, Cut loss point: Rp 45.200

 

3.   Borneo Lumbung  (BORN) (BUY): (Target: Rp 1.750) (Close 02/02 Rp 1.640)

• Dalam skala permainan potensi kenaikan volume, pemain batubara kecil lebih diuntungkan daripada yang besar dalam menaikan target produksi hingga berlipat ganda untuk mengambil momentum kenaikan harga batubara New castle yang tahun ini diperkirakan tembus $160/ton.

• Entry: (1) Rp 1.620, Entry: (2) Rp 1.540, Cut loss point: Rp 1.420

 

4.    Astra International (ASII): (BUY) (Target: Rp 50.000) (Close 02/02 Rp 48.350)

• Beberapa katalis menyelimuti saham ini seperti akuisisi AMFG, tambang batubara serta pemindahan produksi ke Thailand agar tidak mengandalkan demand dalam negeri saja dapat memicu bargain hunting pasca koreksi ke support Fibonacci 61.8% (terhitung dari Rp 46.000 ke 52.000) di Rp 47.700.

• Entry: (1) Rp 48.300, Entry (2) Rp 47.700, Cut loss point: Rp 46.700

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

FUND VIEW-High tin prices needed to address market imbalance

* Supply/demand imbalance resolved through prices

* 2011 to see a tin market deficit

A further rise in tin prices, after they have already hit records, is the only way to sort out the imbalance between demand and supply, U.S.-based fund manager Armored Wolf said.

Benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange hit a record at $30,920 a tonne on Thursday. That is a gain of about 15 percent so far this year for the metal used in electronics, after a surge of 58 percent last year.

A crackdown on illegal mining in top exporter Indonesia since 2006, tighter export regulations in the country and output disruptions have pushed tin prices higher in recent years.

"The story in tin appears to be one where a tight supply/demand balance will be resolved through the price mechanism, and more likely with demand destruction than supply additions, said Matt Millar, a director at Armored Wolf.

"The time-line for a ramp-up in tin mining ... is long enough that it is difficult to imagine a robust supply response in 2011 ... We will probably be stuck with a deficit again in 2011," he said this week.

A Reuters survey published late January showed analysts expecting a deficit of 15,000 tonnes in the tin market this year.

That is a small percentage of global consumption, estimated at around 365,000 tonnes this year, but analysts say it is enough to drive prices higher.

Millar said fundamentals justify current tin price levels. "Even assuming moderately higher Indonesian production, there is very little on the current horizon that will cut demand besides yet higher prices. If not, why have prices risen so high?"

Indonesia is the world's second-largest producer of tin after China. Its refined tin exports fell 9.2 percent in December 2010 from the same month in 2009, while full-year 2010 exports fell nearly 7 percent as an unusually long rainy season curbed mining.

A senior official told Reuters last week Indonesia would restrict annual output to a 100,000 tonnes.

Millar disagreed with the idea that investors were behind price gains.

"The idea that investors drive prices higher is generally hogwash," he said.

"Investors can take delivery in the case of metals and hoard them -- hold them off the market. But that does not appear to be a major force in the market." Source: Reuters

Rubber Surges to Record on Supply Concern, Nears 500 Yen/Kg

Rubber jumped by the most in three months, rising to a record as crude oil’s rally boosted the appeal of the commodity and rain in Asian growing regions curbed output, raising concern that supply tightness may worsen. 

The July-delivery contract gained as much as 3.8 percent before settling at 489.9 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. In after-hours trading, the most-active contract surged to an all- time high of 499.9 yen a kilogram ($6,120 a metric ton). Transactions in this session will be settled tomorrow. 

Oil climbed for a second day as protests in Egypt turned violent, prompting concern that supplies may be disrupted and unrest may spread to other parts of the Middle East. Persistent rainfall in Thailand’s key plantation areas has limited supply, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand. 

“Tight supply of rubber and a strong auto market boosted the price to a new high,” Gu Jiong, an analyst at commodity broker Yutaka Shoji Co., said by phone from Tokyo. “Oil trading above $90 a barrel is also supportive.” 

The most-active contract climbed 12 percent last month, extending last year’s 50 percent rally, as supplies from Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the top three growers representing 70 percent of global supply, were curbed by rain while rising car sales led by China and India improved demand. 

La Nina, which started in June and usually lasts for nine months or more, has led to higher than average rainfall in most parts of Southeast Asia. The weather event’s strength may decrease during the next four months, the Malaysian Meteorological Department said in response to questions, supporting forecasts by the World Meteorological Organization.

‘Major Impact’

The weather event is having a “major impact” on rubber and palm oil production in Malaysia, as heavier rainfall may hamper harvesting and tapping, the Malaysian Meteorological Department said yesterday. 

The physical price of natural rubber in Thailand, the world’s largest supplier, advanced to 180.55 baht ($5.84) a kilogram today from 178.55 baht yesterday, the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand said. The price reached a record 181.55 baht on Jan. 25. 

Bridgestone Corp., the world’s largest tiremaker, said it will raise tire prices in North America by as much as 8 percent on April 1 because of the increasing cost of raw materials.

The Shanghai market will be closed until Feb. 8 for Lunar New Year holidays. May-delivery rubber in Shanghai climbed to a record 41,850 yuan ($6,350) a ton on Jan. 31. 

Natural-rubber consumption in China may rise 9 percent to 3.6 million tons this year and India’s consumption may gain 5.2 percent to 991,000 tons, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries. 

China’s natural-rubber inventories rose for the first week in four, adding 126 tons to 58,673 tons, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said on Feb. 1. That was a 61 percent decline from last year’s peak of 151,832 tons. 

Car sales growth in China will be around 10 to 15 percent this year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Jan. 10. Total auto sales, which include cars, trucks and buses, jumped 32 percent last year to 18.06 million, the association said. Source: Bloomberg

IMF admits wrong doing in Indonesia

The International Monetary Fund ( IMF) admitted that it had done "a wrong doing" during cooperation with Indonesia over ten years ago and would learn from the lesson, Managing Director of the IMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Wednesday.

"We've drew a lesson from the way IMF and Indonesia worked together ten years ago. And certainly we did also something wrong and we have to accept that. So we've learnt this...," the director told a press conference after meeting with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the State Palace.

Indonesia, which was one of the IMF debtors, paid all its debt to the international financial institution in 2006 after the country exited from the 1998/99 Asian financial crisis.

The director said the IMF today appeared with a better performance, which has changed from the past.

"So we're a new institution, a multilateral institution which is built to help the membership and having learnt from the past, including the Asian crisis, we want to be able to provide our membership with the best possible advice and with support when needed," the director said.

He said that with the reforms it had done, the IMF reflected a better state of the world and Indonesia had a bigger role.

"The main message today is simple: we have to look forward. The IMF has changed, we have a new IMF where the voting power and the voice of Asian countries have increased a lot. The last reform we made in the governance changed the IMF to reflect better the state of the world. And in current state of the world, Asia in general, Indonesia in particular, has a bigger role than in the past," the director said.

Indonesia has built strong fundamentals and stability which made it survive from the global financial routs in 2008/2009, then the country's economy developed to a growth of expected 6 percent in 2010.

Indonesia has nearly jumped to investment grade, as Moody's Investor Rating agency recently raised Indonesia's grade to one notch below investment grade.

The IMF forecast Indonesia's economy would accelerate at 6 percent this year and saw no problem which may hamper the growth, the budget deficit of 1.8 percent was considered reasonable.

"I expect a rather high growth for Indonesia this year, it can be over 6 percent. I don't see any real problem (which may affect growth) on this time. The budget that has been prepared is a budget with a higher deficit than last year's but still a very reasonable one," he said.

Although Indonesia has no need to have a fresh loan from the IMF at present and in the near future, the director said the international organization still build cooperation in the region.

"Nevertheless, we'll never know. That's why we're working with regional institution like Chiang Mai initiatives to try to build something for the region," he said. Source: Xinhua

Lion Air eyes $1 billion-plus in 2012 IPO

Lion Air, Indonesia's biggest airline by passenger volume, aims to raise more than $1 billion in an initial public offering (IPO) in 2012, its chief executive told Reuters on Wednesday.

The low-cost carrier has ambitious expansion plans, in a country where an increasing number of IPOs is seen in the next year, to take advantage of a buoyant capital market.

"We will ... use the IPO money as additional capital for our company as we have a huge expansion plan, but it doesn't mean we badly need money. We have all the financing we need through loans," said founder and CEO Rusdi Kirana.

Lion Air, which flies to a few Southeast Asian cities and across Indonesia, plans to expand by purchasing 178 planes worth $14 billion from Boeing Co by 2016.

It has a $1 billion loan to buy 22 planes this year, including 16 Boeing 737-900s, Kirana said. It expects to fly 20 million people this year, up from 17 million last year, he said.

"They have promising growth ... Looking at our population and because we're an archipelago, the most ideal transportation is air," said Alvin Pattisahusiwa, a fund manager in Jakarta at BNP Paribas Investment Partners, which manages about $3 billion.

If Lion Air could win removal from a European Union list of carriers banned from operating to the continent, imposed after a string of Indonesian air disasters, expansion would be boosted.

Analysts say Asian low-cost carriers have bigger expansion potential compared with established national carriers.

Philippine budget carrier Cebu Air raised $538 million in an IPO last October.

Indonesian flag carrier Garuda is set to raise $526 million in an IPO this month, half the $1.1 billion it targeted, after foreign investors were put off by pricing that valued it far higher than regional peers.

Harry Su, head of research at PT Bahana Securities in Jakarta, said the air penetration rate in Indonesia is only 15 percent in the world's fourth most populous nation.

Airline executives say the Indonesian market is a bright spot in an industry still struggling to recover from the global financial crisis, though Mandala Airlines recently suspended flights because of debt problems.

International air traffic slowed in November, according to industry body IATA, a sign the global recovery was slowing. Rising oil prices also pose a threat. Source: Reuters

Semen Gresik says 2010 profit up 10 percent

Indonesia's biggest cement maker by output PT Semen Gresik sees its 2010 net profit up 10 percent, as efficiency gains made up for flat revenue, Dwi Sutjipto, the firm's president director, told Reuters on Tuesday.

This would lag analysts' forecasts for 2010 net profit growth of about 14 percent to 3.8 trillion rupiah ($420 million), according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. ($1 = 9048 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Indonesia Blocks 3.5 Million Tons of Coal Shipments

Indonesia’s government has blocked shipments of at least 3.5 million metric tons of coal since Jan. 15, after a delay in issuing new trading permits, an industry group said. 

About 70 vessels, each with a capacity of 50,000 tons, are stuck at ports because surveyors checking shipments won’t allow the exports before traders obtain fresh licenses from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, said Bob Kamandanu, chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association. 

“Some traders have declared force majeure because of the permit issue,” Kamandanu told reporters in Jakarta today, without identifying them. “More shipments will be halted as a lot more ships are entering the ports.” 

Indonesia’s mining law of 2009 requires traders to convert old permits into new trading licenses issued by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry before they ship products overseas, said Djunaedi, head of mining exports at the Trade Ministry said Jan. 26. The ministry halted the process of giving out new licenses while waiting for the ministerial decree to be issued, Djunaedi, who uses one name, said at the time. 

Alberth Yusuf Tobogu, export director of mining and industry products at the Trade Ministry, and Djunaedi didn’t answer two calls to their mobile phones seeking comment.

Force majeure is a legal clause that allows producers to miss deliveries because of circumstances beyond their control. 

Indonesia, the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, has since 2008 required all exports of coal, metal ores and concentrate to be verified by government-appointed surveyors to prevent illegal shipments of commodities. 

Coal prices at Newcastle, Australia, may climb 34 percent on average this year as floods cut supplies and Asian demand soars, Societe Generale SA said in a Jan. 20 report. The Asian benchmark dropped to $125.25 a ton for the week ended Jan. 28, compared with $138.50 a ton, a 28-month high, on Jan. 14, according to data from Petersfield, England-based IHS McCloskey. Source:  Bloomberg

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 2 Februari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dua sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Selasa, 2 Februari 2011. 

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada Selasa (1/2), IHSG ditutup naik 33 poin (0,98%) ke level 3.442. Indeks menguat di tengah inflasi Januari 2011 sebesar 0,89%, lebih tinggi dibanding bulan sama 2010 sebesar 0,84%. Asing mendominasi perdagangan kemarin dengan nilai transaksi Rp 4,3 triliun, dari total Rp 4,8 triliun. Pada perdagangan hari ini, indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak di kisaran 3.378-3.485. Cermati ADRO, BDMN dan SMGR.

2. Erdhika Sekuritas

Indeks kemarin rebound setelah terkoreksi selama dua hari berturut-turut. Sektor pertambangan menjadi penggerak penguatan indeks, menyusul menguatnya beberapa harga komoditas. Hari ini indeks akan berada pada kisaran 3.418-3.476 dengan ANTM, AALI, CPIN sebagai saham pilihan.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 2 Februari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 2 Februari 2011, yang merekomendasikan beli terhadap empat saham pilihannya, yakni Bumi Resources (BUMI), United Tractor (UNTR), United Tractor (UNTR), Timah (TINS), dan Astra International (ASII).

BUY: BUMI, UNTR, TINS,ASII

• Penutupan di atas 3.410 membuka peluang IHSG untuk mencoba mengetes down-trend-line di 3.488

• Core inflation yang lebih rendah membuat BI enggan menaikan rate

• Minyak di atas $90/b mendorong rally di saham komoditas

• IHSG close (01-02) 3.422.61 (+33.01/+0.98%) (Val.Rp.4.6T)

• Support: 3.392-3.330, Resistance: 3.530-3.650

Stock picks:

1.    BUMI  Resources (BUMI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 3.000-3.200) (close 01/02 Rp 2.875)

• Koreksi akibat sentimen negatif dari turunnya harga batubara ($135 ke $120/ton) mulai mereda dan kelihatannya rally dari Rp 2.725 akan berlanjut hingga di atas price gap yang terletak di Rp 3.000.

• Pelaku pasar mulai optimistis terhadap kinerja laporan keuangan full year 2010 yang belum dirilis.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.850, Entry (2) Rp 2.750, Cut loss point: Rp 2.675

2.   United Tractors (UNTR) (BUY): (Target: Rp 23.700) (Close 01/02 Rp 21.550)

• Valuasi no 2 paling murah (2010 PE 18x, 2011 PEF 12x) setelah BUMI (2010 PE 17x, 2011 PEF 11x) dan tanpa dibebani oleh masalah leverage (utang) tinggi membuat investor seharusnya mulai melirik emiten heavy equipment yang sekarang lebih bergelut ke bisnis batubara.

• Penguatan rupiah juga memberikan efek positif ke segmen penjualan heavy equipment yang cost impor dalam US$.

• Entry (1) Rp 21.500, (2) Rp 21.200, Cut loss point: Rp 20.800

3.   Tambang Timah (TINS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.950) (Close 01/02 Rp 2.825)

• Penutupan di atas down-trend-line Rp 2.700 menandakan bahwa tren turun jangka pendek dari September 2010 (Sejak di atas level Rp 3.100) mulai ada tanda-tanda perbaikan untuk positive trend reversal sehingga rekomen akumulasi.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.825, Entry: (2) Rp 2.700, Cut loss point: Rp 2.600

4.    Astra International (ASII): (BUY) (Target: Rp 50.000) (Close 01/02 Rp 48.600)

• Bila masih terjadi koreksi rekomen akumulasi karena secara valuasi ASII masih menarik, PER 2010 di 15x, dan PER 11F di 13x, dengan riset fundamental 12-bulan target fundamental analis berkisar antara Rp 53.000 dan Rp 80.000 (HD)

• Entry: (1) Rp 48.000, Entry (2) Rp 47.000, Cut loss point: Rp 46.000

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)