Harga Timah Dunia Terus Naik, Saham TINS Tembus Rp 3.150

Luar biasa..!!! komentar tersebut pantas diberikan kepada pergerakan harga timah dunia dan harga saham PT Timah Tbk (TINS). Harga timah dunia hari ini tembus US$ 24.350 sehingga mendorong harga saham TINS melonjak 10,53% atau naik Rp 300 menjadi Rp 3.150.

Saya sebetulnya telah memperkirakan harga saham TINS bisa tembus Rp 3.000-3.300 pada 16 September 2010 ketika harga TINS masih di Rp 2.825 (ketika itu harga timah dunia US$ 22.855).


Sepanjang hari ini, saham TINS diburu oleh seluruh broker, baik lokal maupun asing. Broker Semesta Indovest tampil sebagai pemborong terbanyak, dengan membeli 44.555 lot di harga rata-rata Rp 3.048. Investor asing juga masuk melalui Deutsche Securities Indonesia yang membeli 15 ribu lot, tanpa menjual sama sekali.


Selain melalui Deutsche Securities, investor asing juga memborong melalui UOB Kay Hian Securities, sebanyak 13.875 lot di harga rata-rata Rp 2.992.

Aksi jual boleh dikatakan minim. Hanya Erdikha Elit yang menjadi broker penjual paling banyak, dengan melepas hanya 17.025 lot di harga Rp 3.018. Panin Sekuritas melepas 10.822 lot dan investor asing melalui DBS Vickers Securities juga hanya melepas 9.380 lot di harga rata-rata 3.002.

1	MG	SEMESTA INDOVEST	584	44,555	3,048.64	21	1,114	3,023.81	43,441	45,669
2	DB	DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA	273	15,000	3,071.10	-	-	-	15,000	15,000
3	KK	PHILLIP SECURITIES INDONESIA	279	18,439	3,015.06	190	6,406	2,998.27	12,033	24,845
4	SQ	DINAMIKA USAHAJAYA	170	11,040	2,904.42	6	141	3,109.93	10,899	11,181
5	AI	UOB KAY HIAN SECURITIES	210	13,875	2,992.01	32	3,512	3,034.64	10,363	17,387
6	DX	BAHANA SECURITIES	55	6,425	3,010.54	13	439	3,056.55	5,986	6,864

106	PK	PRATAMA CAPITAL INDONESIA	-	-	-	61	7,572	2,954.65	-7,572	7,572
107	DP	DBS VICKERS SECURITIES INDONESIA	3	300	3,050.00	97	9,380	3,002.35	-9,080	9,680
108	GR	PANIN SEKURITAS TBK.	27	536	2,974.49	152	10,822	3,049.08	-10,286	11,358
109	AO	ERDIKHA ELIT	55	5,844	3,024.40	93	17,025	3,018.32	-11,181	22,869

Lihat berita juga:
CLSA Indonesia Borong 84 Ribu Saham TINS tanggal 16 September 2010.

Astra Bagi Dividen Interim Rp 470 per Saham

PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) membagikan dividen interim senilai Rp 470/saham. Cum dividen (tanggal yang berhak) adalah 27 Oktober 2010 dan pembayaran dilakukan pada 15 November 2010.

Demikian keterbukaan informasi Sekretaris Perusahaan ASII Aminuddin yang dipublikasikan di situs Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), hari ini.

LME Metals Up; Copper, Tin Hit New Highs

Base metals on the London Metal Exchange are continuing to track the euro higher Wednesday, with copper breaking through $8,000 a metric ton for the first time since April. 

The LME three-month copper contract peaked at $8,035/ton at 1047 GMT. By 1136 GMT, it was at $8,025/ton, up 0.9% on the day. 

The EUR/USD meanwhile was up 0.2% at $1.3612. Weakness in the greenback often propels the dollar-denominated metals higher as it makes them cheaper for holders of other currencies. 

Commerzbank analysts said news that Chile's copper output rose slightly in August, to about 468,000 metric tons, was also being offset by reports of capacities at some smelters being reduced "or even shut down completely." 

On Tuesday, the Madras High Court in the southern state of Tamil Nadu ordered Vedanta Resources PLC's (VED.LN) to close a copper smelter owned by its unit Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. (500900.BY), citing violation of environmental rules. The smelter produced 334,000 metric tons of copper cathodes in the last fiscal year ended March 31. 

"Such news, coupled with an ongoing weak U.S. dollar, should ensure that copper prices continue to rise for now," they said. 

However, at current price levels--particularly with ongoing fears around the U.S. economic recovery--Commerzbank said the "air will get thinner" for further rallies. 

Three-month tin, while thinly traded, also continues to outperform, climbing to a new two-and-a-half year high of $24,390/ton. 

BaseMetals.com analyst Will Adams said the metals generally look well placed to extend their gains, with short-lived dips suggesting keen underlying demand. 

"Again it does seem as though the driving force will be the dollar, and how the market plays the tradeoff between the weaker dollar, which is bullish for metal prices, and the factors that are weakening the dollar that are generally negative for the big picture," he said.

Low inventory levels should also continue to underpin buying interest, despite marginal increases in some LME inventories Tuesday. 

According to a daily LME report, lead stocks rose 300 tons, to 191,925 tons, nickel increased 450 tons, to 122,658 tons, and tin was up 15 tons to 13,515 tons.

Copper stocks, however, fell again Tuesday, dropping 175 tons to 375,100 tons. Aluminum also saw drawdowns, falling 3,350 tons to 4.358 million tons and zinc stocks declined 675 tons, to 616,525 tons. 

At 1136 GMT, three-month aluminum was 0.8% higher at $2,327/ton, three-month zinc was 0.1% higher at $2,221.75/ton, three-month nickel was down 0.1% at $23,150/ton, and three-month lead was 0.9% higher at $2,301/ton. Three month tin was still at its high of $24,390/ton, up 1.6% on the day.Source: Dow Jones

Laba bersih Barito Anjlok Jadi Rp 24,94 Miliar

Laba bersih Barito Pacific turun dari Rp 386,16 miliar pada semester I 2009 menjadi Rp 24,94 miliar pada semester I 2010. Penurunan ini disebabkan naiknya beban pokok penjualan dari Rp 5,49 triliun menjadi Rp 8,05 triliun sehingga membuat laba kotor Barito terkikis dari Rp 1,03 triliun menjadi Rp 747,32 miliar.

Padahal, pendapatan Barito naik dari Rp 6,53 triliun menjadi Rp 8,79 triliun. Beban keuangan Barito juga membengkak dari Rp 140,75 miliar menjadi Rp 225,97 miliar, sehingga mempengaruhi laba bersih perusahaan.

Laba per saham menjadi Rp 4 dari tahun lalu sebesar Rp 55 dengan nilai nominal Rp 1.000.

Ancora net profit plunge 70.64%

Resources-based publicly listed firm PT Ancora Indonesia Resources Tbk suffered a 70.64% plunge in net income to IDR 6.71 billion in the first half of this year from IDR 22.87 billion a year earlier.

Despite its earning drop, Ancore remained in revenue growth as of June 2010.

In the financial statement published last night, Ancora posted a 19.8% increase in revenue from IDR 600.93 billion to IDR 719.98 billion in 1H 2010.

However, Ancora failed to retain cost of goods sales and other charges at lower level. In return, both factors eroded operating profit of 41.36% from IDR 93.78 billion to IDR 54.98 billion.

The financial statement also revealed the company's action to liquidate its subsidiary dubbed PT Ancora Mining Services hasn't completed yet as liquidator hasn't the report.

The other subsidiary, namely PT Multi Nitrotama Kimia, has obtained US$ 2.7 million loan facility from PT Bank Permata Tbk, charging 6% annual interest.

Ancore stocks rose 6.25% to IDR 340 yesterday, sending a market capitalization of IDR 600.42 billion.

Riset Indofood Sukses Makmur oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas

Riset Indofood Sukses Makmur oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas. Target harga dalam 12 bulan ke depan adalah Rp 6.000/saham atau ada potensi kenaikan 14,28% dari harga Rp 5.250. Dengan price to earning ratio (PER) 19,75, harga saham INDF bisa Rp 6.186.

Riset Indofood Oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas  

Riset Bank Negara Indonesia oleh Reliance Securities

Riset Bank Negara Indonesia oleh Reliance Securities.Target hargaRp 4.325 dengan rekomendasi BUY, karena rights issue telah disetujui, penerapan peraturan LDR 78-102$, pertumbuhan laba bersih perseroan, dan kualitas aset yang terus meningkat.



Riset Bank Negara Indonesia Oleh Reliance Sekuritas

Outlook Economy Trimegah Securities

Outlook economy by Trimegah Securities.

Outlook Economy Trimegah

Riset Emiten oleh AMCAPITAL

Riset emiten oleh AMCAPITAL.

Riset Emiten Oleh AMCAPITAL

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 30 September 2010

 Tiga sekuritas ternama memberikan ulasan soal kondisi bursa yang akan terjadi hari ini, Kamis 30 September 2010, termasuk saham-saham pilihannya yang patut dicermati oleh para investor. Berikut detail ulasannya:

1. Trimegah Securities

Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) berhasil melanjutkan kembali penguatannya dengan pergerakan yang berada di area positif pada sepanjang sesi. Sentimen pasar yang kondusif menjadi katalis bagi kenaikan IHSG. Namun,  kecenderungan pembentukan dead cross pada Stochastic yang dapat memicu tekanan jual, patut diwaspadai pelaku pasar. Hari ini indeks diperkirakan berada pada kisaran 3.474-3.515, dengan saham pilihan AKRA dan SMCB.

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Penelitian Bank Dunia dan IMF terhadap fundamental makro ekonomi Indonesia yang positif, semakin memberikan kepercayaan tinggi bagi asing masuk ke Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Optimistis akan inflasi September yang terkendali dapat menjadi katalis bagi indeks. Perkirakan inflasi September dalam kisaran 0,5%-0,6%. Rentang gerak indeks 3402-3521. Saham yang perlu dicermati BBRI, BBNI, dan BBKP.

3. Erdikha Sekuritas

 Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) ditutup menguat 22,78 poin menjadi 3495,46 (0,66%). Penguatan saham-saham sektor industri dasar, properti, dan perdagangan menjadi salah satu pemicu penguatan indeks. Secara teknikal indeks masih berpeluang menguji kembali level 3500-an. Pergerakannya dalam jangka pendek masih di area overbought, sehingga indeks masih akan diwarnai aksi ambil untung. Pergerakan indeks berkisar 3.440-3.550. Saham-saham pilihan antara lain SMCB, MEDC, dan BISI.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 30 September 2010

Untuk perdagangan Kamis, 30 September 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan pembelian empat saham pilihannya, yakni Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Bank Bukopin (BBKP), dan PT Timah (TINS).

BUY: (TLKM, BBRI, BBKP, TINS)

• Bila terjadi koreksi dari kegagalan menutup di atas new high di 3.520, rekomen untuk akumulasi di beberapa emiten dibawah ini.

• IHSG close (29-09) 3.486.338(+13.685/+0.39%) (Val.Rp.4.5T)

• Support: 3.450-3.410-3.375, Resistance: 3.520-3.550-3.600

 

Stock picks:

 

1.    Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM): (BUY) (Target: Rp 9.400) (close 29/09 Rp 9.250)

• Merger Flexi-Esia yang dapat menciptakan sinergi untuk meningkatkan profitabilitas dan imbal balik investasi, perkembangan bisnis broadband internet, efisiensi infrastruktur membuat analis optimis untuk proyeksi kineja EPS (pertumbuhan laba pers saham) 2011F.

• Entry: (1) Rp 9.150, Entry (2) Rp 8.950, cut-loss point: Rp 8.750  
   

2.    Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 10.450) (Close 29/09 Rp 10.000)

• Keputusan BI untuk mempertahankan bunga tetap pasca-inflasi September yang mereda, positif untuk emiten perbankan dengan penyaluran kredit tinggi ke UKM seperti BBRI sehingga bila ada koreksi ke Rp 9.700-9.500 rekomen akumulasi.

• Entry (1) Rp 9.700, (2) Rp.9.500, Cut loss point: Rp 9.350

 

3.   Bank Bukopin (BBKP) (BUY): (Target: Rp 780) (Close 29/09 Rp 730)

• Valuasi PER10 9x/PBV10 1.7x yang paling murah di sektor perbankan UKM mikro (BBRI, BJBR, BBTN) membuatnya menarik untuk akumulasi apalagi inflasi rendah & suku bunga tetap mendukung pertumbuhan dan penyaluran kredit perbankan UKM mikro

• Entry: (1) Rp 730, Entry: (2) 710, Cut loss point: Rp 690

 

4.   Tambang Timah (TINS) (BUY) (Target: Rp 3.100) (close 29/09 Rp 2.850)

• Biaya produksi rendah, recovery di sektor industri elektronika yang  menaikkan  permintaan timah & efisiensi melalui program ekspansi tambang offshore dapat meningkatkan kinerja di 2011 sehingga para analis mulai menaikan proyeksi laba per saham (EPS)

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.850, Entry (2) Rp 2.750, Cut-loss point: Rp 2.650

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Bayar Utang, Bumi Terbitkan Kembali Obligasi US$ 300 Juta

PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) tengah memproses penerbitan obligasi global. Saat ini, manajemen sudah menunjuk Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, dan JP Morgan untuk mengatur penerbitan tersebut.

Nilai obligasi belum ditetapkan. Namun berapa besar nilai pastinya akan ditentukan hari ini atau lusa. Salah seorang sumber menyebutkan bahwa obligasi itu berjangka waktu tujuh tahun dan memiliki hak opsi (pelunasan) setelah tahun keempat. Ada kemungkinan nilainya sekitar US$ 300 juta.

BUMI telah bertemu dengan para investor di Singapura, Hong Kong, New York, dan London, terkait rencana penjualan tersebut.

Terakhir BUMI menerbitkan obligasi global US$ 300 juta pada November 2009 berjangka waktu tujuh tahun dengan kupon 12%.

Sementara itu, juru bicara BUMI Dileep Srivastava mengatakan, BUMI akan mendapat dana sekitar US$ 400 juta dari penjualan aset-aset non inti. Langkah ini merupakan bagian dari upaya mengurangi utang US$ 800 juta pada kuartal empat 2010.

Indonesia 2010 and 2011 Economic Outlook: How far can we go?

Laporan berjudul "Indonesia 2010 and 2011 Economic Outlook: How far can we go?" ini disusun oleh tim ekonomi Bank Danamon. Di dalamnya mengulas beberapa emiten yang pertumbuhan asetnya sangat bagus sepanjang tahun ini.

Indonesia Chartbook by Bank Danamon

BI: Inflasi September Hanya 0,5-0,6%

Bank Indonesia (BI) memprediksi tingkat inflasi September 2010 akan berada di kisaran 0,5-0,6%. Tekanan inflasi September tak begitu tinggi karena adanya penurunan harga beberapa komoditas.

"Tekanan inflasi, bulan September ini mungkin inflasi month to month tidak begitu tinggi. Ada beberapa penyebabnya karena beberapa komoditas bumbu-bumbu itu sudah mulai turun walaupun tidak serendah sebelum waktu dia naik. Cabai merah keriting, bawang merah, telur juga turun," ujar Gubernur BI Darmin Nasution saat ditemui di Hotel Shangri-La, Jakarta, Rabu (29/9).

Selain itu, lanjut Darmin, penyebab rendahnya inflasi bulan ini karena aktivitas masyarakat yang juga mulai turun. Bahkan, hal ini menyebabkan naiknya dana pihak ketiga.

"Habis lebaran aktivitas mulai turun, likuditas mulai masuk kembali. Dana pihak ketiga naik," jelasnya.

Darmin menyebutkan tekanan inflasi bulan ini tidak terlalu besar karena tahun lalu inflasinya lebih tinggi. "Tahun lalu lebaran inflasinya agak tinggi sehingga based year-nya agak tinggi," ujarnya.

Oleh sebab itu, Darmin memperkirakan inflasi bulan ini sekitar 0,5-0,6% dengan year on year mendekati level 6%.

"Kita itu mungkin 0,5-0,6% pada bulan ini. Sehingga year on year-nya untuk akhir bulan September, atau awal Oktober, mungkin sedikit dekat ke 6%. Berkisar 6% kurang-kurang dikit barang kali. Bisa kurang dari 6% tapi deket sekali," jawabnya.

Darmin mengakui ada beberapa harga komoditas yang masih mengalami kenaikan, seperti beras, daging sapi, dan daging ayam. Namun untuk harga daging sapi dan ayam, Darmin menyatakan harganya akan mulai menurun sekitar 1-2 minggu ke depan.

"Walaupun kalau kita lihat, beberapa komoditas memang belum turun. Beras belum turun. Nah yang menarik, juga yang belum turun, daging sapi, daging ayam. Yang kita perkirakan akan segera turun seminggu dua minggu lagi," jelasnya.

Untuk beras, Darmin menyatakan harga beras internasional masih tinggi tetapi tidak memengaruhi harga beras Indonesia karena harga beras Indonesia memiliki harga tertinggi di dunia. Yang perlu diperhatikan adalah pasokannya.

"Kalau harga beras memang harga internasional juga belum turun. Walaupun sebetulnya harga beras di Indonesia memang nggak terlalu pengaruh. Karena harga kita sudah lebih tinggi dari harga internasional. Yang paling penting diketahui itu adalah suplainya cukup. itu saja," ujarnya.

Darmin akan melihat ke depannya apakah faktor-faktor tersebut dapat memengaruhi inflasi hingga akhir tahun.

"Kalau bergerak di luar, sepertinya nggak berpengaruh, sehingga untuk bulan-bulan ke depan ini memang menarik untuk dilihat, apakah inflasinya akan menurun lagi dari bulan ini atau lebih kurang sama. Itu akan menentukan sampai akhir tahun dan nanti, inflasi akan seperti apa gambarannya. Apakah akan tembus 6% atau sekitar 6%," tandasnya. Source: Detikfinance

Silver hits 30-year high on investment demand

Silver jumped to its highest in three decades on Wednesday after holdings on the exchange-traded fund hit a record, reflecting a steady investment demand.

Spot silver rose as high as $21.83 an ounce, its strongest since September 1980, when it was fixed at $25.

iShares Silver Trust said its holdings rose to a record high of 9,756.04 tonnes by September 28 from 9,613.02 tonnes on September 24. Source: Reuters

Gold firms near all-time high, eyes on Fed's next move

Gold inched up on Wednesday and held near a record high hit in the previous session, with the U.S. dollar under pressure from expectations the Federal Reserve would take new measures to shore up the economy.

Silver hit a 30-year high as ETF holdings jumped to another record, palladium rose to a five-month high to track higher base metals prices , while a firm yuan raised hopes of more buying from gold consumers in China.

The Fed is likely preparing a fresh round of quantitative easing measures to announce at the end of its November 2-3 meeting, a report by influential hedge fund adviser Medley Global Advisors said on Tuesday, a source told Reuters.

Gold added $1.60 an ounce to $1,309.00 an ounce by 0324 GMT after rising as high as $1,310.10 an ounce on Tuesday -- its eighth record-high session this month.

"We are on a bullish mood. The economy in the U.S. is weak and the Fed will be launching some more rescue packages. The appreciation of the yuan causes some people in mainland China to buy a bit of gold," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.

"Silver is cheaper is compared with gold. Even at $25, it is still cheap. I would say silver still attracts some buying. The industrial side has to buy."

London silver fix price reached $25 in September, 1980, according to The Silver Institute, a U.S.-based industrial group Silver's main sources of demand are for use in industrial applications such as semi-conductors and jewelry.

The world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, the iShares Silver Trust, said its holdings rose to a record high of 9,756.04 tonnes by Sept 28 from 9,613.02 tonnes on September 24.
Asian stocks hit a two-year high and the dollar was stuck near a seven-month low after poor U.S. data reinforced expectations the Fed will take more action to help the struggling economy.

The yuan rose to its highest level since the Chinese currency's July 2005 revaluation amid lingering pressure from Washington on Beijing to let the yuan appreciate.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose $2.2 an ounce to $1,310.5 an ounce, not far from Tuesday's record at $1,311.80.
"Add federal budget deficits exceeding $1 trillion a year for several years to come, and an economy that can't produce enough to sustain Barack Obama's appetite to tax and spend, and investors are simply smart to short the dollar by loading up on gold," said University of Maryland business school professor Peter Morici.
"That's why gold is $1,300 an ounce!," he said in a note.

The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD.P), said its holdings rose to 1,305.688 tonnes by Sept 28 from 1,300.521 tonnes on Sept 24. The holdings hit a record at 1,320.436 tonnes on June 29.

The physical market lacked activity, but premiums were steady at 50 to 80 cents to the spot London prices in Singapore and also at 80 cents in Hong Kong. Source: Reuters

Jakarta Stocks Index Will Reach 3.700 Short Term, Citigroup Says

Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index may be reaching a peak in its valuations with “buying momentum” likely to lift the measure by a further 6.5 percent before share prices decline, according to Citigroup Inc. 

The gauge may rise to 3,700 in the short-term based on an estimated valuation of two standard deviations above its average over the past six years, analysts led by Alex Wreksoremboko said in a report yesterday. 

A “more sustainable” medium-term valuation would be one standard deviation higher at about 14 times estimated earnings, which translates into a level of 3,400 for the benchmark, according to the brokerage. 

The Jakarta Composite yesterday climbed 0.1 percent to a record high of 3,472.71. The index’s rally of 37 percent this year means that Indonesia, the best performer among the 15 largest Asia-Pacific markets, is now valued at about 14.2 times estimated earnings for 2011, according to Citigroup estimates. 

“Whilst the Indonesia market did trade at this kind of valuation before the 1998 Asian financial crisis, the market is now in unchartered territory,” the analyst said. “We would argue that the Jakarta Composite Index is approaching peak valuation and may exhibit short-term weakness.” 

Still, the Indonesian stock index may climb over the next three to six months before valuations become “very challenging,” mirroring the performance of Brazil’s Bovespa index in the two years following the 2006 presidential elections, according to the report.

Indonesia, Brazil 

“In addition to the high degree of similarity between the Brazilian and Indonesia economies, Indonesia in 2010 is at a very similar stage of political development to Brazil in 2007 to 2008,” before the global financial crisis, Wreksoremboko said. 

The Bovespa climbed as much as 78 percent between October 2006, when Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was re-elected to a second term as president, and May 2008, when it reached its peak. The measure then fell as much as 60 percent to a low in October that year. 

In Indonesia, the Jakarta Composite has rallied 67 percent since President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono won his second term in July last year. 

“Superimposing the Jakarta Composite against the Bovespa with the announcement of the election results as the point of intersection returns a very interesting result,” the Citigroup analyst said. “The two charts showed a high degree of correlation” of around 90 percent. 

The similarities between the two indexes also extend to the highs and lows for their valuations, with both measures peaking at around 2 standard deviations above their average over the past six years, according to Citigroup. This may imply that the Indonesian market’s multiple may climb near 15.7 times estimated earnings, the analyst said.Source: Bloomberg

Riset Astra Graphia oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas

Perhatian: riset ini merupakan edisi tanggal 27 September 2010, hari Senin. Harga Astra Graphia sudah naik dari Rp 510 menjadi Rp 620 sepanjang Senin dan dari Rp 620 menjadi Rp 750 pada Selasa, 28 September 2010, sebelum akhirnya ditutup di Rp 670. Hati-hati...
 
Riset Astra Graphia oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas

Riset Industri Otomotif oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset industri otomotif oleh NISP Sekuritas. Penjualan kendaraan roda dua dan empat selama Agustus 2010 turun meliputi penjualan mobil yang turun 20,2% dari bulan sebelumnya dan motor juga turun 4,7% dibandingkan pertumbuhan 7,2% bulan Juli 2010.

Penurunan ini dinilai NISP Sekuritas tidak mengejutkan karena asosiasi kendaraan bermotor (GAIKINDO) sudah menyebutkan bahwa produksi kendaraan tidak bisa dipacu dengan optimal selama bulan Puasa. Kondisi ini akan berlanjut hingga September karena adanya libur panjang yang mengganggu produksi akibat para pekerja pada mudik.

Riset Industri Otomotif oleh NISP Sekuritas

Laba Bersih Indika Energy Naik 28,13%

* Kontribusi pendapatan dari kontrak dan jasa melonjak 116,95%

* Sumbangan dari penjualan batubara menurun 52,44%

Perolehan laba bersih PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY), perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang EPC dan tambang batu bara tumbuh 28,13% dari Rp 364,61 miliar pada semester I 2009 menjadi Rp 467,16 miliar pada semester I 2010. Kenaikan laba bersih ini berkat kontribusi pendapatan yang melonjak 116,95%, yang berasal dari pendapatan kontrak dan jasa.

Dalam laporan keuangannya yang disampaikan kepada Bursa Efek Indonesia tadi malam, emiten itu menyebutkan bahwa pendapatan pada semester I 2010 mencapai Rp 1,77 triliun dibandingkan dengan posisi yang sama tahun lalu senilai Rp 815,17 miliar.

Sumbangan kontrak dan jasa mencapai Rp 1,67 triliun pada semester I 2010, melonjak dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama tahun lalu Rp 615,29 miliar. Namun, sumbangan dari penjualan batu bara menurun dari Rp 199,88 miliar menjadi Rp 95,05 miliar pada akhir Juni 2010.

Seiring dengan lonjakan pendapatan, laba usaha Indika juga melonjak 111,27% menjadi Rp 4,08 miliar dari periode yang sama tahun lalu rugi usaha Rp 36,18 miliar.

Keuntungan bersih naik 12,05% dari Rp 470,23 miliar menjadi Rp 526,91 miliar pada semester I 2010. Hal itu dipicu oleh sumbangan laba dari anak perusahaan, salah satunya perusahaan batu bara PT Kideco Jaya Agung yang 46% sahamnya dimiliki oleh Indika.

Namun, sumbangan laba dari perusahaan asosias turun dari Rp 799,73 miliar pada semester I 2009 menjadi Rp 721,23 miliar pada semester I 2010.

Tin Climbs to High New Prices

Tin for three-month delivery on the LME rose 0.5 percent to $23,825 a ton. The metal is this year’s best LME performer, up 40 percent, beating the 23 percent advance by closest rival nickel. LME inventories dropped for a third day to 13,555 tons, the lowest level since May 13, 2009, and down by almost half since the start of this year. 

Cash tin yesterday traded $2 above the three-month contract, the market’s first so-called backwardation since Sept. 1. Immediate-delivery metal was at a $14 discount to the three- month price on Sept. 23. 

Nickel slid 1 percent to $22,850 a ton. Cash metal’s backwardation compared with the three-month price yesterday swelled to $27 a ton, the widest level since Sept. 1, 2009, according to LME data. Immediate-delivery nickel was at a discount of $8 as recently as Sept. 22. 

Aluminum fell 1.1 percent to $2,269 a ton, lead dropped 0.8 percent to $2,251 a ton and zinc declined 1.7 percent to $2,170 a ton.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 29 September 2010

Untuk hari ini, Rabu 29 September 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihan, yakni Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS), Astra International (ASII), Aneka Tambang (ANTM), dan Akra Corporindo (AKRA), dengan opsi BUY.

BUY: (PGAS, ASII, ANTM, AKRA) 

• Bila terjadi profit pasca pencetakan new high rekomen akumulasi beberapa emiten untuk antisipasi teknikal rebound. 

• IHSG close (28-09) 3.468.036(+1.03/+0.01%) (Val.Rp.4.3T)

• Support: 3.410-3.340-3.275, Resistance: 3.480-3.550

 

Stock picks:

 

1.    Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS): (BUY) (Target: Rp 4.175) (close 28/09 Rp 3.900)

• Pasar mulai antisipasi ada perbaikin kinerja di Q3 2010 yang terlihat dari pola akumulasi kembali dalam tren channel pendek menuju down-trend-line Rp 4.175.

• Entry: (1) Rp 3.900, Entry (2) Rp 3.850, cut-loss point: Rp 3.750

 

2.    Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 58.000) (Close 28/09 Rp 57.000)

• Profit taking akibat kegagalan menutup di atas new high Rp.60.300 dapat mengakibatkan pullback namun rekomen akumulasi karena outlook tren penjualan mobil yang didukung oleh suku bunga kondusif serta kontribusi dari anak usaha AALI & UNTR masih menunjang.

• Entry (1) Rp 56.400, Entry (2) Rp 54.500, Cut loss point: Rp 54.000

 

3.     Aneka Tambang  (ANTM) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.450) (Close 28/09 Rp 2.300)

• Bila terjadi koreksi pasca pencetakan high 4-bulan rekomen akumulasi karena outlook nickel recovery masih menunjang sehingga para analis cukup aggresif menaikan proyeksi laba per saham untuk FY 2010 & 2011.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.175, Entry: (2) 2.100, Cut loss point: Rp 2.025

 

4.   Akra Corporindo (AKRA) (BUY) (Target: Rp 1.570) (close 28/09 Rp 1.470)

• Pasca koreksi 6 hari dari pencetakan new high telah membawa emiten ini ke daerah oversold sehingga potensi terjadi technical rebound kembali di atas Rp 1.500 sangat tinggi.

• Entry: (1) Rp.1.450, Entry (2) Rp 1.420, Cut-loss point: Rp 1.390

Dibuat oleh:  

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 29 September 2010

Hari ini, Rabu 29 September 2010, dua sekuritas ternama memberikan ulasan soal kondisi bursa yang akan terjadi, termasuk saham-saham pilihan yang patut dicermati oleh para investor.

 

1. Trimegah Securities

Walaupun sempat menguat dan breakout dari level 3.500 pada penutupan sesi pertama, tekanan jual terkait aksi profit taking yang berlangsung membuat pergerakan indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) tertekan meskipun ditutup di area positif. Pelaku pasar patut mewaspadai potensi tekanan lanjutan pada IHSG dengan melihat Stochastic yang telah memasuki teritori overbought. Hari ini diperkirakan indeks bergerak di kisaran 3.445-3.484, dengan saham pilihan PGAS dan SMRA.

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) kemarin naik terbatas karena sikap pemodal yang melepas saham untuk memperoleh keuntungan jangka pendek. Sementara itu, perkiraan IHSG hari ini bergerak dengan volalitas lebar dan rawan terkoreksi. Indeks bergerak dalam kisaran 3.402 – 3.521. Perhatikan saham AUTO, TLKM, dan PGAS.

Riset Bank Negara Indonesia oleh AAA Sekuritas

Riset Bank Negara Indonesia oleh AAA Sekuritas. Broker ini menghitung harga rights issue BNI adalah Rp 3.050/saham atau terdiskon 18% dari harga penutupan pekan lalu sebesar Rp 3.725/saham. Rasio rights issue adalah 9:4 (9 saham lama mendapat 4 hak membeli saham baru).

Tambahan saham dan modal tersebut akan membuat rasio return on equity (ROE) BNI turun dari 21,7% menjadi 17,2%. Rekomendasi tetap Hold dengan target harga versi AAA Sekuritas adalah Rp 3.600. 

Riset AAA Sekuritas ini memiliki beberapa kemiripan dengan riset yang dilakukan Samuel Sekuritas.
                                    AAA Sekuritas                                    Samuel
Harga rights issue           Rp 3.050                                            Rp 2.070-2.960
Diskon                          18%                                                    -
Dilusi                            -                                                      18%
Skenario                       9:4                                                    9:2
ROE pascarights issue     21,7% menjadi 17,2%                           17,2% tahun 2011


Baca juga:
Riset Bank Negara Indonesia oleh Samuel Sekuritas



Riset BBNI oleh AAA Sekuritas

Riset United Tractors oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset United Tractor oleh NISP Sekuritas. Selama 8 bulan 2010, UT berhasil menjual 3.653 unit alat berat, naik 81,4% dari tahun lalu. Penjualan alat berat untuk pertambangan mencapai 3.188 unit dari 1.164 unit pada Agustus 2009.

NISP Sekuritas memperkirakan, kinerja kuartal III-2010 masih belum tumbuh dengan kuat. Target harga Rp 20.600.

Riset soal United Tractor oleh NISP Sekuritas

Asian Government's Should Refrain From Tightening `Too Quickly,' ADB Says

The Asian Development Bank raised its 2010 economic growth forecast for the region and said governments must refrain from tightening fiscal and monetary policies “too quickly” to sustain the expansion. 

Asia, excluding Japan, will grow 8.2 percent in 2010, faster than an April estimate of 7.5 percent, the Manila-based development lender said in a report today. The ADB maintained its 2011 growth forecast at 7.3 percent. 

Growth in Asia is outpacing the rest of the world, prompting policy makers to raise interest rates ahead of their counterparts in the U.S. and Europe to fight inflation and curb asset price bubbles. 

Asian emerging-market stocks have risen more than 8 percent this year in dollar terms, beating the 1 percent gain in global shares, indexes tracked by MSCI show.

“Shifting too quickly to fiscal and monetary tightening could heighten the risk of another contraction,” the ADB said in the report. “The global recovery remains shaky, and downside risks lurk. The possibility of a double-dip recession in the major industrial economies has not receded completely.” 

In one sign of the appeal of Asia’s growth, Julius Baer Group Ltd., the 120-year-old Swiss private bank, set up a desk in Singapore to serve wealthy Russians seeking to invest in the region, according to a report yesterday. The bank forecast as much as 20 percent annual growth in net money inflows from the region, compared with the global rate of as much as 6 percent. 

Rate Increases

India this month increased its benchmark interest rate a fifth time this year. Thailand in August raised its key rate and signaled further increases after the economy overcame political unrest to grow faster than estimated last quarter. Taiwan, Malaysia and South Korea are also among those that have boosted borrowing costs. 

In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve on Sept. 21 said it’s “prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery.” Household wealth in the U.S. fell 2.8 percent in the second quarter as share prices were depressed by the European debt crisis, according to the Fed’s Flow of Funds report on Sept. 17. 

Inflation in Asia will generally be within central banks’ “comfort zones” and may average 4.1 percent in 2010 and 3.9 percent in 2011, the ADB said. 

China will expand 9.6 percent this year, unchanged from the previous estimate, the ADB said. India’s economy will grow 8.5 percent this year, faster than the previous forecast of 8.2 percent, it said. 

The ADB forecast Indonesia’s economy will expand 6.1 percent this year, faster than the previous projection of 5.5 percent. Source: Bloomberg

Palm Oil Ends at Highest Price in 16 Months on Exports, Demand Optimism

Palm oil jumped to the highest close in more than 16 months as exports increased from Malaysia, the second-biggest producer, and as advancing stock markets boosted optimism over the economic recovery and commodity demand. 

December-delivery palm oil surged 1.3 percent to 2,735 ringgit ($885) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the highest finish since May 13, 2009. The tropical oil traded as high as 2,755 ringgit today. 

Palm oil exports from Malaysia climbed 15 percent to 1.08 million tons in the first 25 days of September compared with the same period in August, independent cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance estimated today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index reached a five-month high as a rebound in U.S. capital goods orders boosted optimism in the global economic recovery. 

“The buoyancy is liquidity-driven, as everyone wants to play the soft commodity theme, the whole Asian consumption story and dollar weakness,” Ben Santoso, a plantation analyst at DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte., said today. The gain in Malaysian exports was higher than expected, he said. 

While investors may be buying into “the bullish news,” in the short term, palm oil inventories “have turned back up again and by the end of this month will be even higher,” Santoso said. Prices reflect “a clear signal of exuberance,” he said. 

Palm oil has rallied for four straight weeks as demand rose ahead of festivals and excess rains hurt harvests, causing stockpiles to drop for seven months through July.

Malaysian inventories advanced in August, jumping 23 percent to 1.72 million tons from July, the country’s palm oil board said Sept. 15. 

Expanding Inventory

Inventories may rise again in September, hurting prices for “the next four to six weeks,” Dorab Mistry, a director at Godrej International Ltd. who has traded edible oils for more than three decades, said yesterday in Mumbai. 

“Prices will likely remain range-bound into the end of the year with not much catalyst to bring prices past 3,000 ringgit per metric ton,” said Bernard Ching, an analyst at ECM Libra Investment Research, in a report today. 

Stockpiles are likely to grow as increased supply coincides with diminishing demand as major festivals in China and Indonesia end. China, the largest user of edible oils, marked the mid-autumn festival last week and will celebrate National Day in the week starting Oct. 1. 

Indonesia, with the largest Muslim population, had its biggest Islamic holiday earlier this month, which traditionally spurs demand for palm oil. 

Palm oil may tumble as much as 7.4 percent by the end of October as Malaysian production rebounds and Indonesian growers speed up shipments, Mistry said. 

Growth in global vegetable oil supplies may lag behind demand for a third year, Mistry said yesterday. Palm oil may climb as high as 3,200 ringgit a ton by January as soybeans advance to $12 a bushel by December, he said. 

CME Group Inc.’s December-palm oil contract, which is pegged to the Malaysian benchmark price, was little changed at $889.50 a ton. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, May-delivery palm oil closed 2.6 percent higher at 7,794 yuan ($1,164) as trading resumed after a three-day break. Source: Bloomberg

BNI sees 2010 profit rise of up to 80 pct

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) (BBNI), Indonesia's fourth-biggest lender by assets, said on Monday that 2010 net profit could jump as much as 80 percent from 2009, as it expects to turn around non-performing loans.

Analysts forecast full-year 2010 net profit of 3.868 trillion rupiah ($432 million), according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, which would be a 56 percent increase on 2009, when BNI reported a net profit of 2.486 trillion rupiah.

In July, the bank reported first-half net profit rose 61 percent to 1.94 trillion rupiah, as fee income climbed.

BNI also sees loan growth of 15 to 20 percent in 2011, said Gatot M. Suwondo, BNI's president director. ($1=8953 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Chandra Asri rating will upgrade by Moody's

Moody's has today put on review for possible upgrade its B2 corporate family rating on PT Chandra Asri, and its B2 rating on the US$ bonds issued by Altus Capital Pte Ltd, which are guaranteed by Chandra Asri and PT Styrindo Mono Indonesia.

"The review was initiated in response to Chandra Asri's proposed merger with its Jakarta-listed sister company PT Tri Polyta Indonesia Tbk [TPIA], which should benefit the company's credit profile," says Renee Lam, a Moody's Vice President and lead analyst for Chandra Asri, in a press release that released yesterday.

The review acknowledges Chandra Asri's improved financial metrics, with reported debt to EBITDA at 1.9x for 1H 2010, predicated largely on petrochemical product spreads being stronger than expectations.

"The company has also enhanced its liquidity by expanding its banking relationships, which mitigates concerns about its limited financial flexibility," adds Lam.

Tri Polyta, majority owned by PT Barito Pacific Tbk, which is a common major shareholder of Chandra Asri, has been the latter's customer for propylene, accounting for 18% of Chandra Asri's sales revenue in 2009.

Tri Polyta has moderate leverage, with debt to EBITDA at 0.9x in 1H 2010 and a net cash position (as of June 31, 2010).

The proposed merger entails a share swap between Chandra Asri and TPIA, thus, Chandra Asri will not lay out any cash for the merger, and transaction costs should be modest.

Moreover, if completed, the transaction would result in further downstream integration of Chandra Asri, as well as higher sales and a more diversified customer base.

However, the management participation of Temasek, which holds 30% of Chandra Asrim, in the merged entity may be lower than its current level in the company.

Moody's considers Temasek's involvement in the privately held Chandra Asri an important mitigant to corporate governance concerns.

Nonetheless, the importance of this support element to Chandra Asri's credit profile may diminish, as the merged entity will be a publicly listed company, subject to disclosures and transparency requirements of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and Bapepam-LK.

Moody's also expects the proposed merger with 100% share swap will not trigger a change of control under the bond indentures.

In its review, Moody's will consider Temasek's involvement and role in the merged entity, and the resulting credit implications, the operating profile of the merged entity,  the projected financial profile, including the capital investment plans, of the combined entity, and the degree of support from the major lenders to the merged entity.

The last rating action with respect to Chandra Asri was taken on February 17, 2010, when its B2 ratings were affirmed and removed from their provisional status.

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 28 September 2010

 Hari ini, Selasa 28 September 2010, lima sekuritas ternama memberikan ulasan soal kondisi bursa yang akan terjadi, termasuk saham-saham pilihan yang patut Anda cermatin.

1. Trimegah Securities
IHSG kembali berhasil mencetak rekor tertingginya yang baru dengan kenaikan sebesar 2%. Penguatan yang tajam ini terjadi seiring dengan menguatnya bursa regional maupun global yang ikut memberikan sentimen positif pada kondisi pasar. Terbentuknya golden cross pada Stochastic menjadi indikasi terbukanya peluang untuk penguatan lanjutan. Pergerakan indeks hari ini diperkirakan berada di kisaran 3.446-3.494, dengan saham pilihan BBRI dan SMCB.

2. E-Trading Securities
IHSG menguat 70 poin (+2.01%) dan tutup di kisaran 3468, asing melakukan net buying  sebesar Rp 394 miliar terutama di sektor perbankan dan coal mining, pada hari ini IHSG akan berada dalam kisaran 3428 - 3486 dengan saham saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain BJBR, BUMI, ADRO, dan BRPT.

3. Panin Sekuritas
IHSG menguat lebih dari +2% pada perdagangan kemarin. Terlihat saham sektor perbankan menjadi sektor pendorong naiknya indeks terbesar. Ekspektasi rendahnya inflasi, prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cerah membuat pasar modal Indonesia masih cukup menarik bagi investor asing. Hari ini kami melihat indeks masih berpeluang untuk menguat menguji level resistance berikut di 3.500. Sedangkan untuk support di 3.432. Saham sektor perbankan dan konsumer tampaknya masih menjadi pilihan menarik untuk trading hari ini.

4. Sinarmas Sekuritas
IHSG berpeluang untuk menguji level psikologis 3.500 hari ini, seiring kuatnya inflow dana asing ke dalam negeri. Dalam perdagangan kemarin asing memposisikan net buying Rp 394,03 miliar. Disaran tetap waspadai akan aksi ambil untung, mengingat dalam dua hari terakhir kenaikan indeks cukup tinggi. Kisaran gerak indeks berada di level 3385 - 3537. Cermati saham ; BBRI, JMSR, INDF.

5. Reliance Securities
IHSG yang menguat 2% dengan dimotori saham ASII, BBCA dan GGRM dan foreign net buy sebesar Rp 185,573 miliar. IHSG pada perdagangan hari ini rawan profit taking, laporan ekonomi Amerika Serikat yang akan di rilis pada 28 September 2010 mengenai consumer confidence surveinya menurun sehingga memberi sentimen negatif terhadap bursa regional. Kisaran IHSG di level 3425-3517. Rekomendasi saham, BBRI, BDMN, ADRO, INCO.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 28 September 2010

Untuk perdagangan Selasa, 28 September 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan opsi Beli terhadap saham Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS), Adaro Energy (ADRO), dan Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG). Sedangkan satu saham lainnya, yakni Bank BJB (BJBR) direkomendasikan Sell.

BUY: (PGAS, ADRO, ITMG,) SELL: (BJBR)

• IHSG rawan profit taking namun masih ada beberapa emiten yang menyisihkan potensi melawan indeks karena belum mengikuti siklus sepenuhnya. 

• IHSG close (28-09) 3.461.585(+63.816/+1.88%) (Val.Rp.4.3T)

• Support: 3.410-3.340-3.275, Resistance: 3.480-3.550

 

Stock picks:

 

1.    Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS): (BUY) (Target: Rp 4.100) (close 27/09 Rp 3.875)

• Rekomen akumulasi pasca koreksi berlebihan akibat masalah produksi ini terutama karena emiten yang mengandalkan tema domestik-energy demand ini belum mengikuti laju IHSG dalam sebulan terakhir ini yang naik 10%.

• Entry: (1) Rp 3.850, Entry (2) Rp 3.775, cut-loss point: Rp 3.700 

 

2.    Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.150) (Close 20/09 Rp 2.050)

• Downgrade proyeksi produksi batubura dan earnings atau laba per saham FY2010 (EPS) sebesar 15% akibat ketakutan kinerja laporan keuangan 1H & Q3 2010 kelihatannya sudah cukup tercermin dalam koreksi harga 2-minggu lalu.

• Outlook masih optimistis karena efisiensi perusahaan melalui proyek conveyor belt & tambahan infrastruktur rel kereta dapat menaikan produksi batubara di 2011-2012.

• Entry (1) Rp 2.025, (2) Rp 1.980, Cut loss point: Rp 1.940

  

3.   Bank Jabar (BJBR) (SELL): (Koreksi: Rp 1.490) (Close 27/09 Rp 1.580)

• Menyambung rekomendasi "BUY" pada Jumat lalu, pembentukan new high serta kondisi jenuh beli (overbought) mulai menandakan bawah bahwa kenaikan harga sudah di atas potensi earnings & beberapa faktor positif kelihatan mulai priced in (terdiskon di harga) sehingga rekomen take profit.

• Exit: (1) Rp 1.600, Exit: (2) 1.640, Reverse posisi: Rp 1.690

  

4.   Indo-tambang Raya (ITMG) (BUY) (Target: Rp 42.600) (close 27/09 Rp 40.600)

• Potensi re-rating proyeksi pertumbuhan laba per saham (EPS growth) oleh beberapa analis fundamental pasca Q3 2010 keluar nanti, dividend yield, ROE & NPM tertinggi di sektornya dapat menunjang rally di atas Rp.40.000 berlanjut.

• Pasar mulai pricing-in bahwa beberapa tambang yang diakuisisi pada awal 2010 akan mulai beroperasi dan memberikan kontribusi ke kinerja di 2011. 

• Entry: (1) Rp 39.500, Entry (2) Rp 38.850, Cut-loss point: Rp 37.800

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)