Australian Coking Coal Rises 6.9% as Flooding Disrupts Supplies

Coking coal from Australia, the world’s biggest exporter of the variety, jumped 6.9 percent last week as flooding disrupted supplies from the state of Queensland. 

Australian coking coal rose to $265 a metric ton on average last week from $248, according to Petersfield, England-based researcher IHS McCloskey. Contract prices reached a record $300 in 2008. They may return to that level, Colin Hamilton, a London-based analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd., said by phone today. 

Queensland, the main Australian coal shipper, is experiencing its worst floods in 50 years, affecting an area the size of France and Germany combined. The region is losing A$480 million ($475 million) a week in coal exports, said Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. 

“Spot prices could certainly move to $300 and go up over the next couple of weeks as cargoes are canceled,” Hamilton said. “Even though things are not necessarily getting worse, the effect is ongoing.” 

About 160 million tons of annual coal production has been halted under so-called force majeure contract clauses, equating to 41 percent of world export coking-coal supply and 8 percent for thermal coal, according to Pervan. Coking coal is used to make steel, while thermal coal is burned to generate power. 

Force majeure is a legal clause allowing companies to miss contracted deliveries. Australia is the world’s biggest coal exporter including both coking and thermal varieties. Outbound shipments were 259 million tons in 2009, according to data compiled on the World Coal Association’s website, followed by Indonesia’s 230 million tons. 

The price of thermal coal from the Richards Bay terminal in South Africa, the continent’s largest facility for handling the fuel, fell 2.6 percent to an average $126.39 a ton last week, according to McCloskey. Source: Reuters

Target Price Perusahaan Gas Negara Set IDR 5,500 by JP Morgan

PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS), Indonesia’s biggest distributor of the fuel was raised to “overweight” from “underweight” with a share-price estimate of 5,500 rupiah by Stevanus Juanda, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Laba Bersih MNC Per November 2010 Naik 72%

PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk (MNCN) berhasil mencetak kenaikan laba bersih sebesar 72% dari Rp 375 miliar menjadi Rp 646 miliar per November 2010.

Demikian penjelasan CEO of MNC Group Hary Tanoesoedibjo dalam siaran persnya kepada okezone, di Jakarta, Senin (10/1).

Adapun pada November 2010 (Januari ke November 2010) perseroan mencatat pendapatan konsolidasi sebesar Rp 4,37 triliun atau naik 36% dibandingkan dengan kinerja tahun lalu sebesar Rp 3,21 triliun.

"Pendorong utama peningkatan tersebut adalah dari kenaikan pendapatan iklan yang signifikan sebesar 41% dan dari content dan value added services yang tumbuh sebesar 10%," jelasnya.

Dengan sedikit peningkatan pada beban usaha, MNC mencatat laba usaha dengan pertumbuhan yang tinggi sebesar 85% dari Rp 571 miliar menjadi Rp 1,05 triliun pada November 2010. Sedangkan untuk EBITDA meningkat sebesar 67% dari Rp 727 miliar menjadi Rp 1,21 triliun. Sedangkan EBITDA marjin meningkat dari 23% menjadi 28%.

"Keseluruhan angka-angka ini memberikan indikasi yang sangat baik atas kinerja akhir tahun yang sangat memuaskan," katanya. Source: Okezone

Penjualan Mobil 2011 Ditargetkan 780-800 Ribu Unit

Penjualan mobil 2011 ditargetkan mencapai 780-800 ribu, naik dari estimasi 2010 sebesar 764.000.

Presiden Direktur PT Toyota Astra Motor Johnny Darmawan di Jakarta, Senin (10/1), mengatakan, perekonomian nasional yang menurut sejumlah ekonom membaik selama 2011 memperbesar peluang peningkatan pasar produk otomotif.

"Saat pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat, penjualan otomotif naik. Itu yang terjadi dalam dua tahun terakhir di mana penjualan otomotif mencapai angka tertinggi. Peningkatan daya beli masyarakat menentukan pertumbuhan pasar otomotif," kata dia.

Prospek ekonomi tahun ini, menurut dia, kondusif bagi penjualan mobil selama tidak ada kebijakan yang mengejutkan pasar.

Sementara Direktur Pemasaran PT Toyota Astra Motor Joko Trisanyoto menambahkan, tantangan bagi pasar otomotif tahun ini antara lain kenaikan tarif Bea Balik Nama Kendaraan Bermotor (BBN-KB) progresif, regulasi pajak, dan kebijakan pengurangan subsidi bahan bakar minyak.

Namun dia optimistis pasar otomotif nasional bisa tetap tumbuh meski harus berhadapan dengan tantangan-tantangan tersebut. "Secara normal pasar tetap tumbuh meski tidak sebesar pertumbuhan dari 2009 ke 2010. Tahun ini mungkin lebih mendatar," kata dia.

Selama 2010, kata Joko, penjualan otomotif skala besar (wholesales) naik 57% menjadi sekitar 764.000 unit. Sedangkan pada tingkat retail, penjualan naik 52% menjadi 745.000 unit.

Dalam hal ini, menurut dia, segmen kendaraan multiguna (MPV) masih menjadi kontributor terbesar dalam penjualan pada skala besar maupun retail. "Dan pasar segmen komersial mengalami perkembangan paling besar, dari 26% menjadi 29%," kata dia.

Toyota sendiri, menurut dia, selama 2010 mencetak rekor penjualan dengan perkiraan mencapai 280.680 unit pada skala besar dan penjualan tingkat retail sebanyak 280.711 unit.
"Tahun ini kami menargetkan tetap menjadi pemimpin pasar dengan memegang pangsa pasar minimal 36%," kata Joko. Source: Kantor Berita Antara

Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price Gains for Fourth Month

Indonesia increased the reference price for coal sales for the fourth straight month, raising it by 8.7 percent in January, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said. 

The benchmark for coal with a gross energy value of 6,322 kilocalories a kilogram was set at $112.4 a metric ton this month from $103.41 a ton in December, the Directorate General of Coal and Minerals at the energy ministry said in a statement on its website. 

Below is a list of price references and markers, used to calculate prices for other coal types of similar quality from eight leading coal brands in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, as compiled by the energy ministry. Grades are in kilocalories a kilogram, while prices are in U.S. dollars a ton. 

Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of the fuel after Australia.

===============================================================
                                Jan.     Dec.     Nov.     Oct.     Sept.
===============================================================
Price Reference     112.40   103.41    95.51    92.68     90.05
Month-on-Month (%)    8.69     8.27     3.05     2.92     -5.07
===============================================================

Price Markers
===============================================================
    Coal Brand          Quality                Prices
                               Jan.        Dec.     Nov.     Oct.
===============================================================
Gunung Bayan 1       7,000      121.15   111.41   102.86    99.79
Prima Coal             6,700      117.54   108.43   100.42    97.55
Pinang 6150            6,200     105.89    97.70    90.50    87.92
Indominco IM_East    5,700    91.45    84.18    77.79    75.50
Melawan Coal         5,400    85.08    78.61    72.93    70.89
Envirocoal           5,000    77.74    72.02    67.00    65.20
Jorong J-1           4,400    62.73    58.10    54.04    52.58
Ecocoal              4,200    56.64    52.52    48.91    47.61
===============================================================

Note: - Percentage changes calculated by Bloomberg News - The price reference is an average of the Indonesia Coal Index, Platts-1, Newcastle Export Index and the globalCOAL NEWC Index from the previous month. - The average of price reference for the last three months is used to set prices for a one-year contract for the following year. - For sales in barge, the reference price is excluding cost of barging and transshipment into vessel. Source: Bloomberg

Matahari Says Will Retain, Expand Hypermart Business After Merrill Review

PT Matahari Putra Prima, Indonesia’s biggest retailer by market value, said it will “retain, and further intensify and expand its Hypermart Food Retail business as a wholly-owned business division of the company.” 

Matahari, in an e-mailed press release today, said a review by Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit recommended Matahari “bring in a global partner into MPP to expand its hypermart food business and divest of non-core, non-food retailing assets.” Source: Bloomberg

Matahari says to retain hypermart as wholly-owned unit

Indonesian retailer Matahari Putra Prima said on Monday it will retain its hypermarket business as a wholly owned entity but will look for a global partner to expand the business.

The decision to retain the unit comes after two rounds of bidding for Matahari's hypermart business, which some sources said was aimed at raising $1 billion.

Following a strategic review by Merrill Lynch, Matahari also said that it plans to sell non-core, non-food retailing assets.Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 10 Januari 2011

Untuk perdagangan Senin, 10 Januari 2011, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihannya untuk dibeli, yakni Adaro Energy (ADRO), Astra International (ASII), Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM), dan BUmi  Resources (BUMI).

BUY: (ADRO, ASII,TLKM, BUMI)

• Koreksi lebih dari 100-point Jumat lalu membuat banyak emiten berkapitalisasi besar menarik untuk diakumulasi.

• IHSG close (07-01) 3.631.22 (-104.80/-2.81%) (Val.Rp.4.6T)

• Support: 3.630-3.530, Resistance: 3.770-3.850

Stock picks:

1.    Adaro Energy (ADRO): (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.950) (close 07/01 Rp 2.700)

• Koreksi akibat keadaan jenuh beli pasca mencetak new high kemarin sudah cukup mereda, potensi adjustment selling price (ASP) harga batubara dari $67 ke $76/ton untuk 3-bulan kedepan akan berdampak positif untuk earnings 2011 sehingga rekomen akumulasi kembali.

• Ketakutan produksi batubara Q4 2011 tidak akan mencapai target sudah terefleksikan dalam koreksi harga

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.650, Entry (2) Rp 2.575, Cut loss point: Rp 2.475

2.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 53.700) (Close 07/01 Rp 49.000)

• Terlihat ada pola double bottom di daily chart dengan konfirmasi volume besar dan keadaan jenuh jual (oversold) sehingga potensi downside terbatas dengan scenario technical rebound mengetes down-trend-line baru pertama di Rp 53.700.

• Valuasi ASII murah, dengan target fundamental harga Rp 80.000 untuk 12-bulan ke depan masih diperdagangkan di PER 15x, dengan asumsi kenaikan penjualan otomotif 2011 hanya 11% yang cukup konservatif.

• Entry (1) Rp 48.800, (2) Rp 47.800, Cut loss point: Rp 46.900

3.   Telekomunikasi (TLKM) (BUY): (Target: Rp 7.800) (Close 07/01 Rp 7.350)

• Saham core holding IDX ini menjadi menarik pasca koreksi dari trading range Rp 8.000-7.500 ke target breakdown di Rp 7.300, rekomen akumulasi dalam kondisi jenuh jual ini (oversold) dengan potensi technical rebound ke Rp 7.550-7.800-8.000.

• Entry: (1) Rp 7.300, Entry: (2) Rp 7.150, Cut loss point: Rp 7.000

4.    Bumi Resources (BUMI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 3.350) (Close 07/01 Rp 3.125)

• Beberapa sentimen positif dari sensitivitas earnings terhadap harga batubara (diperkirakan bila harga batubara diatas $115/ton yang membuat laba BUMI dapat membaik 20%), beberapa corporate action untuk mengurangi utang yang sudah terlaksana maupun dalam rencana memberikan advantage besar versus emiten karena bila biaya beban utang berkurang maka laba akan terdongkrak tanpa mengandalkan pendapatan dari segi penjualan batubara dapat menarik kembali BUMI ke upper end trading range atas di Rp 3.400.

• Entry: (1) Rp 3.100, Entry (2) Rp 2.950, Cut loss point: Rp 2.850

Dibuat oleh:  

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)