Bank Danamon Target Price is IDR 6,200 by AmCapital

Bank Danamon Indonesia was rated new "Hold" at AmCapital Indonesia by equity analyst Swie Cu Yap. The 12 month target price is IDR 6,200 per share.

Indonesia's Timah sees 2010 tin output at 40,000 T after rains

Indonesia's state-owned PT Timah , the world's largest integrated tin miner, said on Wednesday it saw production in 2010 at 40,000 tonnes or lower due to heavy rains hampering mining, down from an earlier forecast of 45-50,000 tonnes. 

"Because of bad weather, with rain for almost the whole year, probably our output this year will only be 40,000 tonnes, or it could be less than 40,000. There is declining 

production from offshore and onshore mines due to rains," said spokesman Abrun Abubakar. 

The lower output forecast could exacerbate worries about declining supplies from Indonesia, which propelled benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to a record high of $27,500 a tonne in November. 

The La Nina weather anomaly is expected to prolong the rainy season in Indonesia for months, worsening a trend of falling tin supply. Analysts had expected Indonesia's refined tin output to fall nearly 6 percent this year because of the extended rains.Source: Reuters

Indonesia sees higher 2011 coal, tin output, fall in copper

* Miners to ramp up production when weather improves

* China, India investment to boost coal output

* Govt optimistic on rebound for tin output

* Copper output to fall on lower grade ore 

Indonesia's government forecasts coal output will increase by 19 percent next year as drier weather enables miners to ramp up production amid growing regional demand, a senior mining official said on Wednesday. 

Indonesia, the world's top thermal coal exporter, is seen producing 327 million tonnes next year, versus expected 2010 output of 275 million tonnes, said Bambang Setiawan, director general of coal and mineral resources at the energy and mineral resources ministry. 

"Demand for coal is good so far. But production can change depending on the weather so hopefully the weather will be better next year," Setiawan told Reuters. 

Indonesia has been hit by unseasonally heavy rains this year during what is normally the dry season of July to September, hitting output of coal, tin and other metals from miners such as Bayan Resources.

Growth in Indonesia's coal output will also be sustained in the next five years by expansion from the country's top 10 miners that make up about two-thirds of the country's production, said Somyot Ruchirawat, president director of PT Indo Tambangraya Megah , the country's fourth-largest producer and a unit of Thai miner Banpu.

"We forecast that Indonesia coal production growth in 2009-2015 will be around 11 percent per year and mostly from the major producers as well as newcomers," said Ruchirawat, at a mining conference in Bali. 

"Supply will be sufficient to meet both the domestic and overseas market," he said. 

Investment by major buyers India and China in the country's coal sector is expected to grow next year as they are struggling to secure supply. "A lot of companies from India and China will be participating in coal investment," said Ruchirawat, adding some would look to be operators while others would just seek to hold equity stakes. 

While Chinese investors have struggled to buy stakes in Indonesian miners so far, Indonesia's powerful Bakrie family has joined forces with the Rothschild banking dynasty to cement its dominance of the Indonesian sector through a London-listed company Bumi Plc that plans to be the largest supplier of thermal coal to China.

TIN REBOUND?

The ministry forecast tin output from the world's top tin producer will climb significantly to 95,097 tonnes from 54,646 tonnes this year, Setiawan said.

However, this projection looks ambitious given a trend of declining output as easily recoverable onshore reserves are depleted and after a crackdown by police on illegal mining. 

Top integrated tin miner PT Timah said its output would only be 40,000 tonnes or less this year because of the heavy rains, down from earlier forecasts for 45-50,000 tonnes, and worries over declining Indonesian output drove tin futures to a record last month. 

Setiawan said production of copper would fall to 665,158 tonnes versus output this year of 908,645 tonnes."Copper production will be lower next year because miners will start mining lower grade ore," he said. 

Production of ferronickel is estimated at 16,014 tonnes in 2011 compared to 18,727 tonnes this year. Source: Reuters

Indonesian Stock Index May Rise 20% on Sovereign Rating Upgrade, BNP Says

Indonesia’s benchmark stock index may rise 20 percent within a year on an expected upgrade of the nation’s sovereign debt rating to investment grade, according to BNP Paribas. 

A re-rating of Indonesia’s debt will have “far-reaching implications in interest-rate structure, currency, investments and, ultimately, asset prices and valuations,” analyst Elvira Tjandrawinata wrote in a report today, rating Indonesian shares “overweight.” BNP set a 12-month target of 4,500 for the Jakarta Composite index, with recommendations including PT Astra International and PT Bank Mandiri. 

Faster economic growth and record-low interest rates helped the Jakarta Composite gain 48 percent this year, the best performance among Asia’s 10 biggest markets. The index is trading at 18 times estimated earnings, the highest level since December 2007. Moody’s Investors Service said Dec. 1 it may upgrade Indonesia’s credit rating, citing economic “resilience” and sustained macroeconomic “balance.” 

“Despite outperforming its peers in the region this year, we do not believe that the benefits of the re-rating have been fully priced in,” Tjandrawinata said. “Other catalysts could include a continued pickup in investments, which would feed into consumption, making it stronger and more sustainable.” 

Record Low

Southeast Asia’s biggest economy may expand as much as 6.5 percent in 2011 from an estimated 6 percent this year, the central bank said on Dec. 6. Bank Indonesia has kept its key interest rate at a record low of 6.5 percent for 16 months, helping companies such as Astra, Indonesia’s biggest automotive retailer, boost sales. The Jakarta Composite index rose 0.9 percent to 3,754.91 as of the 12 p.m. local time break. 

Indonesia and other Asian nations face “significant headwinds” from inflation in the first half and a “difficult absolute-returns environment until inflation and interest rates peak in mid-2011,” Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley’s Hong Kong- based chief Asian and emerging-market strategist, said Dec. 1. 

Indonesia’s consumer price index in November gained 6.33 percent from a year earlier, the central statistics office said Dec. 1. That compares with a 5.98 percent median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Inflationary pressure will probably continue next year, Bank Indonesia Governor Darmin Nasution said. 

Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services both rate Indonesia two levels below investment grade, with a positive outlook, while Fitch Ratings has the country one step below. “We are convinced that the re-rating is on track,” BNP’s report said.Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia’s Coal Benchmark Gains Most Since February

The Indonesian government raised the reference price for coal sales in December by 8.3 percent from a month earlier, the steepest increase since it was introduced in February, the energy ministry said. 

The price benchmark for coal with a gross energy value of 6,322 kilocalories a kilogram was raised to $103.41 a metric ton this month from $95.51 a ton in November, the Directorate General of Coal and Minerals at the energy ministry said in a statement on its website today. 

Below is a list of price references and markers, used to calculate prices for other coal types of similar quality from eight leading coal brands in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, as compiled by the energy ministry. Grades are in kilocalories a kilogram, while prices are in U.S. dollars a ton. 

Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of the fuel after Australia.

================================================================
                      Dec.    Nov.     Oct.     Sept.      Aug.
================================================================
Price Reference     103.41   95.51    92.68     90.05     94.86
Month-on-Month (%)    8.27    3.05     2.92     -5.07     -1.85
================================================================

Price Markers
================================================================
    Coal Brand     Quality                Prices
                                           Dec.      Nov.     Oct.     Sept.
================================================================
Gunung Bayan 1       7,000   111.41    102.86    99.79     96.94
Prima Coal             6,700   108.43    100.42    97.55     94.88
Pinang 6150            6,200    97.70     90.50    87.92     85.52
Indominco IM_East   5,700    84.18     77.79    75.50     73.38
Melawan Coal         5,400    78.61     72.93    70.89     68.99
Envirocoal             5,000    72.02     67.00    65.20     63.53
Jorong J-1             4,400    58.10     54.04    52.58     51.23
Ecocoal                 4,200    52.52     48.91    47.61     46.41
================================================================

Note: - Percentage changes calculated by Bloomberg News - The price reference is an average of the Indonesia Coal Index, Platts-1, Newcastle Export Index and the globalCOAL NEWC Index from the previous month. - The average of price reference for the last three months is used to set prices for a one-year contract for the following year. - For sales in barge, the reference price is excluding cost of barging and transshipment into vessel.Source: Bloomberg

BNP Paribas dan Credit Suisse Akumulasi Saham Bank Mandiri

Investor asing melalui BNP Paribas Peregrine dan Credit Suisse tampak memborong saham Bank Mandiri, masing-masing sebanyak 9.683 lot dan 6.314. Kemarin, Credit Suisse juga tampak memborong 16.214 lot.


Broker lain yang memfasilitasi aksi beli oleh investor asing adalah UBS Securities Indonesia 5.017 lot dan ABN AMRO Asia Securities Indonesia 4.056 lot. 


Sedangkan Merrill Lynch yang kemarin melepas 10.239 lot saham BMRI, hari ini juga menjual 18.313 lot.


Harga saham BMRI turun Rp 50 menjadi Rp 6.750.
 

1	BW	BNP PARIBAS PEREGRINE	212	9,683	6,810.92	-	-	-	9,683	9,683
2	CS	CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA	240	6,314	6,821.90	63	137	6,834.31	6,177	6,451
3	ZP	KIM ENG SEKURITAS	132	7,460	6,818.81	7	2,125	6,801.79	5,335	9,585
4	AK	UBS SECURITIES INDONESIA	59	5,017	6,820.52	1	115	6,850.00	4,902	5,132
5	GR	PANIN SEKURITAS TBK.	78	3,701	6,838.06	19	200	6,851.25	3,501	3,901
6	HG	ABN AMRO ASIA SECURITIES INDONESIA	76	4,056	6,827.81	99	2,082	6,810.57	1,974	6,138

69	CC	MANDIRI SEKURITAS	14	451	6,765.41	38	1,864	6,842.62	-1,413	2,315
70	ML	MERRILL LYNCH INDONESIA	33	358	6,823.04	387	12,218	6,802.19	-11,860	12,576
71	DB	DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA	28	1,233	6,826.57	208	18,313	6,805.30	-17,080	19,546

Lihat berita kemarin:
Credit Suisse dan JP Morgan Akumulasi Saham Bank Mandiri

Merrill Lynch Kembali Borong 95 Ribu Lot Saham Adaro

Merrill Lynch Indonesia kembali memborong 94.839 lot saham Adaro Energi (ADRO), setelah kemarin tampak membeli 34.920 lot. Aksi beli ini dilakukan oleh investor asing dari Merrill Lynch.


Lokal tampak membeli melalui CLSA Indonesia 60 ribu lot dan melalui Trimegah Securities 25.620 lot. 


Selain itu, investor asing juga tampak memborong saham ADRO melalui Deutsche Securities Indonesia sebanyak 46.761 lot, Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia 22.879 lot, JP Morgan Securities Indonesia 9.720 lot, dan Macquarie Securities Indonesia 7.232 lot. Kemarin, Credit Suisse juga tercatat membeli 58.912 lot.

Aksi jual tetap dilakukan oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas yang melepas 89.161 lot setelah kemarin menjual 40.376 lot. 


Harga saham ADRO naik Rp 150 menjadi Rp 2.625.

1	ML	MERRILL LYNCH INDONESIA	343	94,839	2,574.89	6	7,405	2,547.28	87,434	102,244
2	KZ	CLSA INDONESIA	350	60,000	2,560.87	2	25	2,570.00	59,975	60,025
3	DB	DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA	148	46,761	2,563.84	15	5,193	2,554.61	41,568	51,954
4	LG	TRIMEGAH SECURITIES TBK.	40	25,620	2,550.70	70	3,428	2,572.59	22,192	29,048
5	CS	CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA	250	22,879	2,524.19	1	6,000	2,458.00	16,879	28,879
6	BK	J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA	72	9,720	2,592.31	-	-	-	9,720	9,720
7	RX	MACQUARIE SECURITIES INDONESIA	108	7,232	2,544.98	7	1,109	2,450.00	6,123	8,341

94	AK	UBS SECURITIES INDONESIA	6	18,593	2,505.39	17	28,511	2,538.80	-9,918	47,104
95	XL	MAHAKARYA ARTHASECURITIES	-	-	-	33	16,400	2,547.35	-16,400	16,400
96	YU	CIMB-GK SECURITIES INDONESIA	202	29,304	2,520.79	230	62,608	2,556.46	-33,304	91,912
97	DP	DBS VICKERS SECURITIES INDONESIA	2	54	2,527.78	235	65,700	2,571.08	-65,646	65,754
98	ZP	KIM ENG SEKURITAS	25	14,652	2,494.11	166	89,161	2,552.04	-74,509	103,813

Lihat berita kemarin:
Credit Suisse dan Merrill Lynch Borong Saham Adaro Energy

Investor Lokal Dominasi Pembelian Saham BUMI

CLSA Indonesia memborong 70 ribu lot saham Bumi Resources, tanpa menjual sama sekali. Aksi ini mendorong investor asing melalui Deutsche Securities Indonesia juga turut membeli 27.932 lot saham BUMI. Disusul investor lokal melalui Victoria Sekuritas 15.048 lot, Kresna Graha Sekurindo 25.258 lot, dan AMCapital Indonesia 10.075 lot.

Sementara itu, aksi jual tampak dilakukan oleh Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia sebanyak 16.457 lot, Danatama Makmur 11.045 lot, Sinarmas Sekuritas 12.964 lot, dan Kim Eng Sekuritas 41.837 lot.

Kemarin, Kim Eng juga telah melepas 65.684 lot saham BUMI. Sedangkan JP Morgan yang kemarin memborong 104 ribu lot hanya membeli 7.327 lot hari ini. 

Harga saham BUMI naik Rp 50 menjadi Rp 3.125.

1	KZ	CLSA INDONESIA	558	70,000	3,114.29	-	-	-	70,000	70,000
2	DB	DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA	185	27,932	3,110.36	21	2,238	3,106.96	25,694	30,170
3	MI	VICTORIA SEKURITAS	141	15,048	3,124.93	3	42	3,098.81	15,006	15,090
4	KS	KRESNA GRAHA SEKURINDO TBK.	202	25,258	3,102.15	56	10,930	3,117.31	14,328	36,188
5	FS	AMCAPITAL INDONESIA	128	10,075	3,100.05	24	2,542	3,121.70	7,533	12,617

99	CS	CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA	303	6,893	3,118.03	79	16,457	3,106.55	-9,564	23,350
100	II	DANATAMA MAKMUR	-	-	-	28	11,045	3,122.63	-11,045	11,045
101	DH	SINARMAS SEKURITAS	42	1,413	3,105.04	152	12,964	3,111.52	-11,551	14,377
102	ZP	KIM ENG SEKURITAS	110	17,732	3,101.23	268	41,837	3,109.99	-24,105	59,569

Lihat berita kemarin:

JP Morgan Borong 104 Ribu Lot Saham Bumi Resources

Mandiri Sekuritas Borong 47 Ribu Lot Saham BORN

Mandiri Sekuritas memborong 47.189 lot saham Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal (BORN) di harga rata-rata Rp 1.356. Selain itu, investor asing juga masuk memborong saham BORN melalui empat broker, yakni UBS Securities Indonesia 44.183 lot, Deutsche Securities Indonesia 25.559 lot, DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia 20.600 lot, dan Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia 19.238 lot.


Kemarin, UBS dan DBS Vickers juga telah memborong 84 ribu lot saham BORN dan 16.140 lot. Sedangkan Credit Suisse yang kemarin melepas 12.842 lot hari ini justru membeli 19.238 lot.


Sama seperti kemarin, Kim Eng Sekuritas masih melepas saham BORN. Hari ini volume yang dilepas sebanyak 75.587 lot dan kemarin 45.615 lot.

Harga saham BORN naik Rp 10 menjadi Rp 1.350.

1	CC	MANDIRI SEKURITAS	210	47,189	1,356.41	14	769	1,362.09	46,420	47,958
2	AK	UBS SECURITIES INDONESIA	179	44,183	1,353.69	-	-	-	44,183	44,183
3	DB	DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA	174	25,559	1,355.22	-	-	-	25,559	25,559
4	DP	DBS VICKERS SECURITIES INDONESIA	91	20,600	1,353.46	1	74	1,360.00	20,526	20,674
5	CS	CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA	142	19,238	1,357.74	9	5,200	1,360.77	14,038	24,438

91	BK	J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA	1	15	1,340.00	105	26,000	1,355.93	-25,985	26,015
92	YU	CIMB-GK SECURITIES INDONESIA	39	6,249	1,348.53	177	38,107	1,352.77	-31,858	44,356
93	ZP	KIM ENG SEKURITAS	23	2,414	1,343.69	258	75,587	1,356.71	-73,173	78,001

Lihat berita kemarin:
UBS Securities Borong 84 Ribu Lot Saham BORN

Outlook Pasar Modal oleh HD Capital

Strategy-December (06/12) (BUY):   "Menuju IHSG 3.900"

 

Beberapa alasan indeks untuk kembali ke 3.900:

• Optimisme akan pertumbuhan ekonomi (GDP: 6.5%) & pertumbuhan laba emiten (20%) untuk 2011F membuat PER IHSG 2011F di level 3.750 diturunkan dari 16x ke 14x.

• Dengan PER 15-16x 2011F maka IHSG seharusnya berada di 3.900 -4.000.

• Stimulus the Fed untuk sementara waktu akan memompa likuiditas global di emerging market.

• Komoditas dalam tren penguatan (terutama minyak & batubara) akibat inflasi global tinggi

The rally continues to 3.900

• Sentimen negatif regional menyebabkan koreksi sebesar 6% dari high 3.770 ke 3.530.

• Namun pembalikan arah dan pembentukan up-trend-line baru terjadi di 3.530 untuk meneruskan tren naik kembali ke all time high 3.770.

• Bila IHSG berhasil ditutup di atas high 3.770, maka kemungkinan besar skenario IHSG 3.900 di akhir Desember masih berjalan.

Rekomendasi Portofolio & Target Price 1-bulan:

Ticker	TP 1 bln	PER10	PBV10	ROE10
ADRO	Rp 2.550	32x	4x	12%
ITMG	Rp 52.000	24x	8x	35%
BBRI	Rp 12.100	17x	4.5x	27%
BUMI	Rp 3.250	22x	4x	18%
TLKM	Rp 8.600	14x	3.7x	28%
ASII	Rp 58.000	15x	4.5x	30%
INDF	Rp 5.200	14x	3.5x	26%
BMRI	Rp 7.300	16x	3.6x	22%
BBKP	Rp 710	9x	1.4x	16%

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital.

(Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 8 Desember 2010

Untuk Rabu, 8 Desember 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan opsi beli terhadap empat saham pilihan, yakni Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Semen Gresik (SMGR), Adaro Energy (ADRO), dan Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF).

BUY: (BBRI, SMGR,ADRO, INDF)

* Bila IHSG berhasil mempertahankan daerah di atas 3.720 maka rally untuk mengetes all time high di 3.770 semakin mungkin terjadi.

* Kenaikan harga komoditas menunjang technical rebound

* IHSG close (06-12) 3,722.35 (+26.79/+0.71%) (Val.Rp.3.8T)

* Support:3.650-3.575, Resistance: 3.770-3.800-3.850

Stock picks:

1. Bank BRI (BBRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 12.100) (close 06/12 Rp 11.500)

* Kelihatannya emiten perbankan mikro UKM dengan kapitalisasi besar akan menjadi pendorong untuk IHSG mengetes all time high 3.770.

* Beberapa sentimen negatif seperti kredit macet akibat bencana merapi terlalu berlebihan dan sudah cukup tercermin dalam koreksi harga sebelumnya.

* Entry: (1) Rp 11.400, Entry (2) Rp 11.200, Cut loss point: Rp 10.950

2. Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.600) (Close 06/12 Rp 2.475)

* Sensitivitas tinggi terhadap harga batubara yang sudah di atas $110/ton & cuaca kembali normal dapat meningkatkan proyeksi laba beberapa analis sehingga menurunkan valuasi PER yang terlihat cukup mahal sekarang.

* Entry (1) Rp 2.425, (2) Rp 2.350, Cut loss point: Rp 2.275

3. Semen Gresik (SMGR) (BUY): (Target: Rp 9.800) (close 06/12 Rp 9.550)

* Valuasi PBV/PER paling murah di sektornya, beberapa proyek infrastruktur yang akan dimulai awal 2011, serta optimsme terhadap pertumbuhan industri semen dapat menunjang technical rebound untuk terus berlangsung pasca koreksi dari level Rp 10.000.

* Entry: (1) Rp 9.500, Entry: (2) 9.300, Cut loss point: Rp 9.100

4. Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF): (BUY) (Target: Rp 5.050) (close 06/12 Rp 4.825)

* Valuasi yang menjadi menarik pasca koreksi dari Rp 5.600, outlook CPO yang optimistis offset koreksi pasar akibat kehilangan royalti anak usaha INDF (ICBP) sehingga proses pembalikan arah tren dapat terjadi setelah konsolidasi ini selesai.

* Entry: (1) Rp 4.775, Entry (2) Rp 4.675, Cut loss point: Rp 4.575

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 8 Desember 2010

Untuk perdagangan Rabu, 8 Desember 2010, dua sekuritas ternama memberikan ulasan soal kondisi bursa, termasuk saham-saham pilihan yang patut dicermatin oleh para investor sepanjang hari ini. Berikut ulasan detailnya.

1. Trimegah Securities

Kenaikan harga minyak dunia yang berhasil mencetak rekor baru menjadi sentimen yang signifikan dalam mendorong laju IHSG melanjutkan penguatannya. Hal ini membuat pelaku pasar meneruskan akumulasi beli, setelah sempat tertahan di akhir pekan lalu. Meskipun peluang pertumbuhan minat beli ini masih terbuka, namun dengan pergerakan stochastic yang sudah memasuki teritori overbought, maka terdapat pula potensi munculnya profit taking dari pelaku pasar mengingat indeks telah rally cukup tinggi. Hari ini, IHSG diperkirakan berada di kisaran 3.706-3.741, dengan saham-saham pilihan BUMI, ISAT, dan SMGR.

2. E-Trading Securities

IHSG kembali gagal menembus level resistance di 3.730 dan ditutup menguat 26 poin (0,71%) di level 3.722. Dari RSI terlihat IHSG telah memasuki kembali wilayah bullish, asing sendiri pada hari Senin masih membukukan net buy sebesar Rp 217 milliar di pasar reguler, terutama di sektor pertambangan batubara (ADRO, BORN dan BUMI). Hari ini, IHSG akan berada di kisaran 3.700–3.775, dengan saham-saham yang perlu diperhatikan antara lain ITMG, ADRO, BUMI, dan BORN.