Copper Heads for Weekly Advance on Dollar; Tin Advances for Ninth Session

Copper rose to the highest level in almost five months, set for the best week in seven, as a weaker dollar made metals cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Tin advanced for a ninth day, the best run since February. 

The three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange gained as much as 0.8 percent to $7,762 a metric ton, the highest price since April 27, and was at $7,747 at 2:07 p.m. in Singapore. The metal is 3.5 percent higher this week, the most since the week ending July 30. Copper for December in Shanghai rose as much as 1.9 percent to 60,170 yuan ($8,944) a ton. 

“The dollar’s weakness is helping to boost commodities prices,” Lin Junhua, an analyst at Jinpeng International Futures Co., said from Beijing. 

The dollar declined for a second day against a six-currency basket before reports forecast to show German producer prices rose for a sixth month and U.S. consumer confidence improved. The U.S. currency was at $1.3127 per euro from $1.3078 yesterday. 

“After the Chinese holidays in October, we fully expect demand to pick up and supplies to tighten,” said Xu Jun, an analyst at Hongyuan Futures Co. At the moment, “consumption hasn’t fully picked up from the summer lull and we’re only getting hand-to-mouth buying.” 

Financial markets in China, the world’s largest metals user, are closed from Sept. 22 to Sept. 24 for the Mid-Autumn festival holiday, and again from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for the National Day holiday. Copper is used to make pipes and wires. 

Copper Inventories

Copper stockpiles in Shanghai shrank for a second week, dropping to a seven-month low of 98,025 tons last week, according to the Shanghai Futures Exchange. This week’s data will be released after the market closes today. 

In Peru, the second-largest copper producer after Chile, miners may vote this week to start a national strike to press for better pensions and a greater share of profits, a union leader said Sept. 14. Protesters in the country attempted to seize Xstrata Plc’s Tintaya copper mine in the southern Andes yesterday after clashes with police left two dead. 

Tin climbed as much as 0.5 percent to $23,600 a ton, the highest price since July 23, 2008, taking gains since the close of trade on Sept. 6 to about 13 percent. The nine days of gains is the best winning streak since the 10 sessions to Feb. 22. 

The metal, which touched a record $25,500 a ton in May 2008, has been bolstered by disruptions to production in Congo and Indonesia. 

Aluminum in London rose 0.4 percent to $2,173 a ton, zinc advanced 1.2 percent to $2,174.25 a ton, lead gained 1.7 percent to $2,240 a ton, and nickel increased 0.5 percent to $23,365 a ton. Source: Bloomberg

IMF:Indonesia cbank may need to hike rates in 2010

* IMF: Bank Indonesia needs to anchor inflation expectations

* IMF: BI policy appropriate for now, may need to hike in H2

* IMF: BI move to lift banks' LDR may conflict with risk mgmt

* IMF lifts 2011 GDP forecast to 6.2 pct, urges govt spending

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday Indonesia's central bank may have to start unwinding accommodative monetary policy in 2010 to avoid risking accelerating inflation next year and to enhance credibility.

Indonesia's annual inflation picked up in August to the highest since April 2009 and analysts expect Bank Indonesia to start lifting rates by the end of the year, although the central bank has repeatedly said it will leave rates on hold all year if inflation meets its end-year target of 4-6 percent.

The IMF saw end-2010 inflation for Southeast Asia's biggest economy at 5.9 percent. The report said Bank Indonesia's current stance is justified, since inflation is within the target range and given the risk that hiking rates now could attract even more volatile portfolio capital.

But looking ahead, it said various risk factors could push inflation expectations higher in 2011, and so Bank Indonesia (BI) needed to signal a proactive stance to anchor inflation expectations within the target range.

"We believe there needs to be a stronger commitment to reducing inflation and keeping it low," Thomas Rumbaugh, the IMF's division chief for Asia and Pacific, told reporters.

BI left its policy interest rate BIPG at a record low 6.5 percent this month as expected, as it seeks to spur loan growth, but raised bank reserve requirements -- cash that has to be put aside with the central bank -- in an effort to curb inflationary pressures.

The IMF warned the move could conflict with banks' own credit risk management measures, and said it saw credit growth gaining momentum in any case with the economic recovery.

The IMF kept its economic growth forecast for the G20 member at 6 percent for 2010, and lifted its forecast for 2011 from 6 percent to 6.2 percent. 

Indonesia saw the third-fastest growth among G20 members last year as its economy proved resilient to the credit crisis. Investors have poured money into Indonesian assets in the past 18 months on hopes for further rating upgrades, but the IMF said near-term risks would rise if there was a sustained increase in global risk aversion that could lead to capital outflows.

Foreign investors sold a net 1 trillion rupiah ($111 million) of bonds in the first half of September, latest data shows, trimming their holdings to 27 percent of all outstanding debt, on concerns a record bond market rally may be coming to an end.

Indonesian bonds have delivered 20 percent returns so far this year, versus a 12 percent rise in the broader Asian index, according to Thomson Reuters data. 

The IMF recommended the gradual conversion of nonmarketable government bonds in BI's balance sheet to marketable bonds, to expand its policy toolkit for liquidity management. It said Indonesian authorities agreed and were discussing this.

The IMF also urged the government to reduce energy subsidies and improve tax collection, and to better execute government budget spending, particularly on infrastructure, to drive growth.

Inadequate roads, ports and power supplies are a major obstacle to foreign direct investment, which the government is hoping to lift to provide more stable longer-term financing.Source: Reuters

First Pacific Pesan 1,5% Saham Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur

First Pacific Co Ltd, induk usaha keluarga Salim yang tercatat di Bursa Hong Kong, berniat memesan 17.492.865 unit saham PT Indofood CBP (ICBP) Sukses Makmur melalui penawaran umum perdana (initial public offering/IPO). ICBP akan melepas 1,16 miliar unit saham ke publik pada harga Rp 5.395 per saham.

Sekretaris Perusahaan First Pacific Nancy LM Li menyatakan,  pihaknya akan membeli saham IPO anak usaha PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) tersebut pada harga HK$ 4.686 atau setara US$ 0,6 per saham.  First Pacific akan membeli 1,5% dari total saham ICBP yang akan dilepas ke publik.

“Total dana yang disiapkan untuk pembelian saham ICBP sekitar US$ 10,5 juta setara HK$ 82 juta atau Rp 94,4 miliar,” ujar Nancy dalam keterangannya seperti dikutip laman First Pacific di Hong Kong, Jumat (17/9). 

Sesuai jadwal, masa penawaran saham IPO produsen mie instan dan bumbu makanan tersebut dijadwalkan pada 1-16 September. Pada 24 September, Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam-LK) diproyeksikan menerbitkan pernyataan, dan masa penawaran 26-30 September 2010.  Setelah itu, pada 4 Oktober dilakukan penjatahan dan distrubusi saham secara elektronik pada 6 Oktober. Sementara itu,  pencatatan saham (listing) di Bursa Efek  Indonesia (BEI) dilakukan pada 7 Oktober 2010. 

Menurut rencana, ICBP akan melepas 1,16 miliar saham dengan nilai nominal Rp 100 per saham atau sekitar 20% dari modal disetor dan ditempatkan. Perseroan menargetkan dapat menghimpun dana hasil IPO sebesar Rp 6,2 triliun. Empat sekuritas ditunjuk sebagai penjamin pelaksana emisi (underwriter) IPO, yaitu PT Kim Eng Securities, PT Credit Suiesse Securities Indonesia, PT Deutsce Securities Indonesia, dan PT mandiri Sekuritas.

Direktur Utama Mandiri Sekuritas Harry M Supoyo mengatakan, respons investor terhadap IPO ICBP sangat positif. "Hasil pembentukan harga (bookbuilding) bagus sekali, karena sektor industri barang konsumsi bagus dan performa Indofood yang excellent," kata Harry kepada Investor Daily, kemarin.

Indofood ICBP telah memberi kepercayaan kepada penjamin pelaksana emisi untuk memilih dua dari enam agen penjual (selling agent) yang telah dipertimbangkan, yaitu Deutche Securities, CLSA  Securities, Merill Lynch, Citigroup, BNP Paribas, dan Nomura Securities.

“Besok (hari ini) beauty contest akan dilakukan di Mandiri Sekuritas. Nanti akan dipilih 3-4 sekuritas,”  ujar sumber Investor Daiy di Jakarta, kemarin.

Hingga semester I-2010, Indofood CBP membukukan pendapatna bersih sebesar Rp 825 miliar, naik 49% dibanding periode sama 2009 sebesar Rp 550 miliar. Pencapaian tersebut menopang kinerja keuangan induk usahanya, yaitu Indofood Sukses Makmur yang membukukan laba semester I-2010  Rp 1,41 triliun naik 76,4% dibanding periode sama tahun lalu sebesar Rp 799,74 miliar.Source: Investor Daily