Antam says H1 ferronickel output up 6 pct

Ferronickel output at Aneka Tambang , Indonesia's state-owned nickel miner, rose 6 percent in the first half of 2011, compared with the same period last year, the firm's chief executive said on Friday.

Ferronickel production in the first six-months of this year was 9,838 tonnes or more than 50 percent of its full-year production forecast of 18,000 tonnes, Antam's CEO Alwinsyah Lubis said.

The firm also has produced 3.6 tonnes of gold -- slightly below its full-year production target of 3.7 tonnes -- helped by its newly acquired mines in Java, he added. Source: Reuters

Indonesia steel consumption may rise 3.8 pct in 2011 -producer

Steel consumption in Indonesia in 2011 will rise as much as 3.8 percent compared to last year, due to a rise in state funded projects, said an official at Krakatau Steel , the country's biggest steel maker.

Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, is forecast to consume 8.2-8.3 million tonnes of steel this year, compared with 8 million tonnes in 2010, Irvan Kamal Hakim, Krakatau Steel's marketing director told a news conference late on Thursday.

Cement sales, also an indicator of economic growth in Indonesia, rose 17 percent last month from a year ago, data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) showed, above the group's forecast for a 6 percent rise, supported by demand for housing, offices and hotel construction by the private sector.

Indonesia's second-quarter gross domestic product grew at a robust 6.5 percent from a year ago, though the economic turmoil in major trading partners the United States, Europe and Japan are causing concerns to the region. Source:  Reuters

Indonesia says to impose tin export royalty, ban ore shipment

* Every tin exporter expected to pay royalty charge

* Further Indonesian tin cutbacks supportive of long-term prices

* Indonesia seeks to add value to mineral wealth 

Indonesia, the world's top refined tin exporter, will impose a new "royalty" charge on all tin shipments and only allow the export of refined tin, a trade ministry official said on Friday, a move that is expected to lend support to weakening global prices. 

Southeast Asia's largest economy, which supplies about 30 percent of the world's tin consumption, expects to produce 90,000 tonnes of refined tin this year, up from 78,965 tonnes last year, on expectations of improved weather conditions. 

"Every exporter will have to pay royalty before they can ship the metal," Deddy Saleh, director general of foreign trade at the trade ministry told reporters.

"We are preparing a new regulation on tin export as an amendment to the existing trade minister decree. It is almost final actually." 

Under the new rule, the government will not allow export of raw tin -- tin ore and concentrate -- and will only permit refined tin shipments, Saleh added. 

"Only tin which (has) its royalty paid by exporters can be shipped for export," Saleh said. This is seen to be consistent with the government's policy to stop non-value added raw material exports within the next three years. 

Trade ministry officials were unavailable to give further details on how the royalty payment will be calculated and paid.

At 0835 GMT, benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was at $24,050 a tonne, up from $23,605 at the close on Thursday. 

Tin, used in electronics, plating and lead-free solders, struck a record high above $33,000 in April. A crackdown on illegal mining, tighter export regulations, declining onshore 

reserves and rain that had hindered production in Indonesia have helped drive the tin rally earlier this year. 

CRACKDOWN

"We have seen Indonesian policy having a significant impact on tin in recent years, notably with the clampdown on 'illegal' tin mining constraining tin ore/concentrate shipments over the past year and a half, said David Wilson, analyst at Societe Generale in London. 

"Further cutbacks in ore/concentrate exports can only be supportive for prices, as it would impact on refined production levels." 

Earlier this week, the Indonesian Tin Industry Association told Reuters that an environmental crackdown in the main tin producing region of Bangka island, was hindering domestic smelters' supplies. 

Tight supplies and resilient demand will keep tin prices high this year, despite the impact of the earthquake on big consumer Japan, a Reuters survey of metals analysts showed in April. 

"It appears that Indonesia had, at least unofficially, modestly relaxed restrictions on tin mining and exports as tin prices moved to record highs," Wilson added. "Now that prices are at the year's lows, the announcement does appear to be well timed in terms of providing a floor to prices." 

"However, with the faltering demand growth outlook, due to slowing manufacturing growth in China, and significantly lower growth scenario for Europe and the U.S., we would still expect to see a relatively balanced market this year." 

An April poll forecast that the global tin market will remain in deficit this year, and is likely to narrow to 12,750 tonnes, the consensus of eight analysts showed, from a 15,000-tonne deficit predicted in a January poll. 

"The royalty... obviously will put upward pressure on international pricing, as Indonesia is such an important source of supply but how much pressure will depend on how big the royalty is," said analyst Stephen Briggs of BNP Paribas in London.

He added that the ban on exports of tin ore, is in line with their previously announced policy to halt exports of non-value added raw materials by 2014.

The Indonesian energy and minerals ministry has been drafting a regulation, part of a mining and coal law introduced in 2009, that would by 2014 require miners to process coal and minerals into higher value products before exporting them.

Like many other emerging and resource-rich nations, Indonesia is looking to boost revenue from the mining sector.

Tin is not the only LME metal to see problems in the archipelago of 17,000 islands, after the trade ministry said nickel exports fell almost 31 percent in the first half of the year, due to disputes at some shipping ports. Source: Reuters

Stop crackdown on small tin miners: Indonesia industry

Indonesian police carrying out an environmental crackdown in the main tin producing region of Bangka island, should stop targeting small-scale miners as it is hindering domestic smelters' supplies, the Indonesian Tin Industry Association said.

Small-scale traditional tin miners in Indonesia, the world's top tin exporter, have slowed mining activity because they fear being raided by the police, who have been intensifying a crackdown on illegal miners for the past few months.

Small smelters in the island off Sumatra depend on traditional miners for between 70 and 80 percent of their ore supply.

"The police come and get the miners," said Johan Murod, general secretary at the association and director of Bangka-Belitung Timah Sejahtera, which groups five private tin smelters on Bangka island.

"It is because government regulation is not helping with the mining situation in Bangka island," he told Reuters this week.

The government brought in a new mining law in 2009 that restricts the operation of small-scale miners, who tend to operate in an undisciplined way, causing damage to the environment, and do not pay royalties.

A crackdown on illegal mining, tighter export regulations, declining onshore reserves and rain that had hindered production in Indonesia have helped drive the tin rally earlier this year.

"The government is not supporting the people for mining, they only support big companies," Murod added. "All mining causes environmental damage but after the mining, we (too) can make environmental improvements with the right regulation."

Bangka police follow up every complaint or report on illegal tin mining, which are made daily, and are committed to taking action against every mining violation, a spokesman said on Thursday.

Illegal small-scale miners who are caught by the police, are often not prosecuted, but instead shown mining areas that permit public mining, Bangka Belitung police spokesman Djoko Poernomo told Reuters.

"The police will continue to order prohibited activities or illegal activities which are against the law," he added. "This is not a seasonal action... many mining activities are being done at forbidden areas such as protected forest."

BANGKA OUTPUT TO SLIP
Earlier this week, Indonesia's trade ministry said the country's refined tin exports rose 4.5 percent in July from the same month last year but were down almost 15 percent from last month.

Tin output in Bangka island will be 70,000 tonnes this year, compared with 80,000 tonnes last year, Murod said, as weaker tin prices hit output.

At 1:59 a.m. EDT, benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange was at $23,500 a tonne versus $22,745 at the close on Wednesday. Tin struck a record high above $33,000 in April.
"Right now the smelters are waiting and seeing and do not buy tin," said Murod, whose association was established in 2009. "Right now, people are not mining because nobody (smelters) buys the tin because the LME price drops.

"At the moment, the LME price is due to speculation and not the real price," added Murod, speaking from Bangka island.

Murod forecasts more tin to come onto the market toward the end of this month however, as suppliers cash in ahead of the Islamic festival of Eid al-Fitr at the end of August.
He said however, that small-scale tin miners could be forced to cease operations if prices fall below $20,900 a tonne.

Southeast Asia's largest economy expects to produce 90,000 tonnes of refined tin this year, up from 78,965 tonnes in 2010, on expectations of improved weather conditions.
Indonesia's dry season started in most areas around May-June, the Climatology, Meteorology, and Geophysics Agency has said. Source: Reuters

Laba Bersih Salim Ivomas Semester I 2011 Melonjak 114%

PT Salim Ivomas Pratama Tbk (SIMP) pada semester I-2011 berhasil meraih kenaikan laba bersih sebesar 113,8% dari Rp 414 miliar pada semester I-2010 menjadi Rp 885 miliar. Kenaikan ini berkat kontribusi penjualan yang meningkat sebesar 45,8% dari Rp 4,21 triliun menjadi Rp 6,13 triliun akibat kenaikan volume penjualan dan harga jual rata-rata produk minyak goreng dan lemak nabati serta kenaikan volume penjualan produk kelapa sawit.

Laba kotor perseroan tercatat naik 57,1% dari Rp 1,46 triliun menjadi Rp 2,29 triliun. Kondisi ini mendorong kenaikan laba usaha sebesar 81,9% dari Rp 901,9 miliar menjadi Rp 1,64 triliun. Marjin laba kotor dan marjin laba usaha masing-masing meningkat menjadi 37,5% dan 26,7%.

GMR Infrastructure's arm GMR Energy to acquire 30% stake in Indonesia's Sinar Mas Group company GEMS

GMR Energy, a subsidiary of GMR Infrastructure, has signed conditional sale and purchase agreement to (CSPA) 30 percent stake in PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), a Sinar Mas Group company in Indonesia and a subsidiary of PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA). The deal is valued at US$ 450-550 million.

The stake buy will help GMR purchase coal over the next 25 years, with the annual off-take quantity steadily increasing to 10 million tonnes over the coming years. GEMS has reserves of over 860 million tonne and coal resources of 1.9 billion tonne, GMR said.

An off-take is an agreement between a producer of a resource and a buyer of a resource to purchase or sell portions of the producer's future production. It is negotiated prior to the construction of a facility, such as a mine, in order to secure a market for the future output of the facility

"It will provide fuel security for our power plants under construction and support further capacity addition and trading," BVN Rao, business chairman, GMR Energy, said as quoted by Economic Times, today.

The acquisition will be funded through a combination of debt and internal accruals made through an offshore special purpose vehicle (SPV) in Singapore. This transaction is subject to the fulfillment of several conditions and is expected to close in calendar 2011, the company said.

GMR plans to set up power plants generating 12,000 MW capacities in 5-6 years. Of this, 65% will be coal based. The Bangalore-based company will require 40 MT of the fuel for the same.

GMR Energy has 17 power plants of which four are operational and 13 are under various stages of implementation.

"The off take agreement will give GMR Energy access to the required quality of coal from one of the lowest cost producers in Indonesia," Raaj Kumar, CEO GMR Energy, said

GEMS, a subsidiary of PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), owns four producing and six non-producing thermal coal concessions in Indonesia. DSSA is focused on power & steam generation, coal mining, trading and telecommunication infrastructure development.

Over the past three to four years several Indian companies have been scouting for coal mines across Australia, Indonesia and Africa to ensure consistent supply of fuel for their energy businesses.

Competitor GVK Power and Infrastructure is also in talks to buy coal mines in Australia from Hancock in a deal estimated at A$8bn this September. Early this year, Lanco Infratech paid A$740 million to acquire Griffin coal assets in Australia.

Adani Enterprises too acquired coal assets from Linc Energy for A$2.72bn last August and JSW Steel invested $200 million to acquire nine coking coal mines in West Virginia, US. Over half of India's current power capacity estimated at 169,749 megawatts is generated through coal-based thermal power plants. India could face a coal shortage of almost 50m tonnes by the end of March 2011, according to Indian government data. Source: Economic Times

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 12 Agustus 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Jumat, 12 Agustus 2011.

BUY:  PGAS, ASII, BBRI, ADRO

• Proses upward retracement IHSG dari keadaan jenuh jual (oversold) untuk menguji resistance atas di moving crossover dead cross average 5 dan 50 harian (3.920) sudah dimulai rekomen melirik emitten big cap yang masih mempunyai gap atas yang belum tertutup. 

• IHSG close (11-08) 3.840.141(-23.069/-0.60%) (Val.Rp.3.6T)

• Support: 3.730-3.650-3.550, Resistance: 3.925-4.060

 

Stock picks:

1.     Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) (BUY) (Target Rp 3.575) (Close 11/08 Rp 3.350)

• Diperkirakan fair value fundamental saham ini seharusnya di atas Rp 3.300 dan secara technical memang ada price gap antara Rp 3.525-3.600 yang belum tertutup sehingga membuka potensi untuk kenaikan harga.

• Entry (1) Rp 3.350, Entry (2) Rp 3.250, Cut loss point: Rp 3.175.

 

2.    Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 69.500) (Close 11/08: Rp 67.000)

• Dilihat dari daily stochastic 5 harian yang sudah mulai berjalan menyebrang 50-line, momentum kenaikan sedang dibangun di ASII sehingga potensi untuk meneruskan perjalanan ke resistance price gap Rp 69.500

• Entry (1) Rp 67.150, Entry (2) Rp 66.000, Cut loss point: Rp 65.000.

 

3.    Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.950) (Close 11/08 Rp 6.450)

• Sektor perbankan memiliki kapitalisasi terbesar di IHSG (33%) sehingga bisa dipastikan akan memimpin momentum market dalam technical rebound.

• Outlook suku bunga dan kepercayaan konsumen masih optimis didukung oleh rupiah stabil dan tidak terpengaruhnya sector mikro UKM terhadap factor luar. 

• Entry: (1) Rp 6.350, Entry (2) Rp 6.250, Cut loss point: Rp 6.150

 

4.   Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.550) (Close 11/08 Rp 2.300).

• Sektor pertambangan batubara (coal) memiliki 20% dari kapitalisasi IHSG, dimana emiten dengan kapitalisasi terbesar adalah ADRO, yang secara teknikal memang berpeluang untuk menutup price gap atas di Rp 2.550 dalam jangka waktu dekat ini.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.250, Entry (2) Rp 2.200, Cut loss point: Rp 2.100

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas,12 Agustus 2011

Rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Jumat, 12 Agustus 2011.

1.E-Trading Securities

IHSG kemarin ditutup naik 5,7 poin (0,15%) ke level 3.869. Asing masik mencetak net selling, kali ini Rp 651 miliar. Secara teknikal, IHSG masih berpotensi menguat melihat indikator stochastic yang masih bergerak uptrend. Hari ini, indeks diprediksi bergerak pada range 3.828-3.906. Cermati GGRM , PTBA, dan DEWA.

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Pada perdagangan Jumat (12/8), secara teknikal, indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan menguat pada kisaran 3.817-3.893. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan untuk speculative buy adalah GGRM, UNVR, BSDE, CMNP.

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Penguatan indeks kemarin terjadi di tengah-tengah penurunan bursa global akibat kekhawatiran penyebaran krisis utang Eropa. Secara teknikal, IHSG hari ini diperkirakan berfluktuasi pada kisaran 3.807-3.891. Buy BTEL, INDF, UNVR, hold BNBR, MEDC, TINS, dan sell BNGA.

4. Universal Broker Indonesia

IHSG hari ini diprediksi bergerak mixed. Investor diperkirakan masih wait and see dan menanti pergerakan Dow Jones. Jika Dow Jones mampu rebound dengan kembali ke level diatas 11.000, indeks akan bergerak di level resistance 3.870-3.875 dan support 3800. Investor asing kini dilanda kepanikan, sehingga terus membukukan net selling. Saham-saham blue chip yang bisa dikoleksi antara lain ASII, BMRI, BBRI, INDF. Sementara untuk lapis kedua, amati  MAPI, CPIN, GJTL.