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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Indonesia ready to provide more coal to Japan-association

Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, stands ready to provide additional coal to Japan to meet an expected surge in demand, said an official at the Indonesian Coal Mining Association on Tuesday. 

Japan faces a potential catastrophe after a quake-crippled nuclear power plant exploded and sent low levels of radiation floating towards Tokyo. 

Japan's coal-fired generators are already working close to capacity and can't boost output or imports to make up for lost nuclear power after Friday's earthquake. 

But as Japan struggles to fill that gap, its additional demand for coal is likely to be limited to 5-10 million tonnes over the rest of the year -- about 4 to 8 percent of total annual demand. 

"We are ready to provide additional coal to Japan to meet the expected surge in coal use following the shutdown of the country's nuclear power plants," said Kaz Tanaka, vice chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association in an emailed statement. 

He did not say how much spare production Indonesian producers have. 

Indonesia ships more than 70 percent of coal to the Asian market, with Japan the top buyer. But Japan prefers to source more from Australia because of the consistency of Australia's coal quality.
Traders said there may not be a surge in coal demand from Japan in the short-term as many industrial and residential consumers had been damaged by the tsunami which would cap demand for electricity. 

But in the long-term, Japan's coal demand may increase as nuclear power plants damaged by the earthquake may not restart anytime soon, said one trader.     Most Indonesian producers also had limited cargoes to meet short-term demand as producers normally have contracted their production until the first quarter of the year, but it may be able to fill the gap for the long-term, traders said. 

PT Bumi Resources , Asia's top thermal coal exporter, sees coal prices and demand going up in the medium term after the earthquake of Friday, Dileep Srivastava, a company director, said on Monday. 

    Industry officials have said Indonesia expects to produce 340 million tonnes of coal this year, up from an estimated 310 million tonnes in 2010 as miners ramp up production on higher prices. Source: Reuters

Matahari in Talks to Sell 20%-30% Stake

PT Matahari Putra Prima is in talks with potential buyers to sell between a 20% and 30% stake in the company, two sources familiar with the deal said Friday.

An executive with Lippo Group, the single largest owner in Matahari via PT Multipolar, told Dow Jones Newswires that Matahari "is in serious discussion" with Lotte Shopping, Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA, Walmart and Carlyle on the stake sale.

The executive said that Lippo is offering the investors an option to either buy part of Multipolar's stake in Matahari, or buy Matahari's stake via a rights issue that could be carried out for the purpose.

When contacted, South Korea's Lotte Group reiterated that it is interested in Matahari's hypermarket unit, and not Matahari, while a spokesperson at Casino Guichard-Perrachon declined to comment. Walmart and Carlyle couldn't immediately be reached for a response.

The sources expect the transactions could be completed by the end of this year.

Bankers familiar with the deal said Matahari, which has 49 outlets mostly in the western part of Indonesia, had planned to sell its hypermarket business but decided against it.

Matahari has said it wants investors to help it expand the hyperrmarket business to the eastern part of the archipelago, which is currently underserved.

This year Matahari expects to invest $150 million to add 15 outlets. It hopes to achieve $1 billion of sales in 2011 before rising to $3 billion over the subsequent three to four years.Source: Dow Jones

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 15 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Selasa, 15 Maret 2011.


1. E-Trading Securities
IHSG pada perdagangan Senin (14/3) menguat 27,6 poin (0,77%) ke level 3.569.84. Penguatan ini dipicu meningkatnya saham-saham sektor pertambangan sebesar 2,1% disusul aneka industri sebesar 1,49%. Secara teknikal, candlestick indeks kemarin membentuk pola spinning top yang mengindikasikan pergerakan pasar masih diliputi keraguan para investor. Sedangkan untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.537–3.611. Amati INCO, HRUM, dan ITMG.

2. Indo Premier Securities
Gempa dan tsunami di Jepang diprediksi bakal mengerek harga batubara. Alhasil, saham sektor batubara menjadi motor penggerak indeks kemarin. Di sisi lain, investor asing membukukan net buying Rp 195 miliar. Hari ini indeks masih rawan koreksi di kisaran 3.525-3.588, seiring masih panasnya konflik politik di Timur Tengah. Top picks kami adalah BMRI, BBCA, BBNI, PTBA, ADRO, AALI, dan LSIP.

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas  
Hari ini indeks saham secara teknikal diperkirakan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan menguat pada kisaran 3.535-3.600. Penutupan 11 pembangkit listrik tenaga nuklir di Jepang berpotensi mengerek harga batubara, sehingga dapat berimbas positif terhadap emiten batubara di BEI. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan adalah PTBA, INDY, ITMG, TINS.







Jepang Butuh Banyak Komoditas Indonesia

Jepang akan membutuhkan banyak komoditas dari Indonesia untuk rehabilitasi dan rekonstruksi pasca peristiwa gempa dan tsunami yang terjadi akhir pekan lalu.

“Karena setelah Jepang mengatasi infrastruktur yang rusak dan rehabilitasi, maka dia membutuhkan banyak sekali komoditas impor dari Indonesia dan jangan salah impor dari Indonesia bahan-bahan yang sangat dibutuhkan seperti energi dan pangan untuk mengisi manufakturnya,” jelas Kepala BPS Rusman Heriawan di Istana Bogor, Senin (14/3).

Dia pun berharap agar dampak dari tsunami ini dapat cepat ditangani oleh Jepang. Agar perekonomian global dapat berjalan dengan normal kembali. “Tentu ada dampak di Jepang sendiri, kita tahu beberapa manufakturnya menyetok sementara. Saya berharap ini bersifat sementara,” jelas dia.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 15 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Selasa, 15 Maret 2011.

BUY: (BJBR, KRAS, ASRI, BMRI)
  • Profit taking akbat jenuh beli IHSG berhenti dicegat oleh bargain hunters di support zone crossover ma 10-50 hari (3.530-3.510) sehingga minor uptrend masih berjalan.
  • IHSG close (14-01) 3.576.506(+34.284/+0.96%) (Val.Rp.2.4T) 
  • Support: 3.510-3.470, Resistance: 3,650-3,750
 
Stock picks:
1.     Bank Jawa Barat (BJBR): (BUY) (target: Rp 1.250) (close 14/03 Rp 1.150)
  • Laba 2010 yang naik 25% menyebabkan pasar optimistis kembali atas kinerja keuangan Q1 2011 dan full year 2011 ke depan.
  • Kelihatannya hal ini belum sepenuhnya tercermin dalam harga sahamnya sehingga masih ada potensi untuk mencoba menembus ma 50 hari di Rp 1.190.
  • Entry (1) Rp 1.130, Entry (2) Rp 1.110, Cut loss point: Rp 1.080
 
2.   Krakatau Steel (KRAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 1.150) (Close 14/03 Rp 1.090)
  • Kehancuran infrastructure Jepang akibat Tsunami dapat memicu harga baja naik untuk kebutuhan pembangunan kembali gedung, mobil dan beberapa barang lainnya yang mengunakan baja.
  • Permintaan batubara yang naik pasca Tsunami Jepang yang merusak reactor nuklir (Jepang sekarang berpikir untuk beralih ke tenaga batubara) akan membuat cost produksi baja naik sehingga produsen baja akan menaikan harga jual besi ke consumer.
  • Entry (1) Rp 1.080, Entry (2) Rp 1.060, Cut loss point: Rp 1.030
 
3.   Alam Sutera (ASRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 270-295) (Close 14/03 Rp 265)
  • Suku bunga BI rate tetap, inflasi terkendali serta penguatan rupiah positif untuk kinerja sector property
  • Secara technical ASRI sudah dalam pola minor uptrend dengan misi mencoba mengejar garis resistance down-trend-line pertama di Rp 270 dan kedua di Rp 290
  • Entry: (1) Rp 265, Entry (2) Rp 255, Cut loss point: Rp 250
 
4.  Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY) (Target: Rp 6.400) (close 14/03 Rp 6.150)
  • Modal kuat untuk ekspansi kredit pasca rights issue 13T, valuasi menarik (PER 13x/PBV 1.9x) dengan ROE di atas 20% merupakan katalis positif untuk akumulasi di support zone crossover MA 10-50 hari (Rp 6.150-5.950) dengan target atas di downtrendline Rp 6.350.
  • Entry (1) Rp 6.150, Entry (2) Rp 5.950, Cut loss point: Rp 5.850
 
 
Dibuat oleh: 
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)