Riset Bank Negara Indonesia oleh AAA Sekuritas

Riset Bank Negara Indonesia oleh AAA Sekuritas. Broker ini menghitung harga rights issue BNI adalah Rp 3.050/saham atau terdiskon 18% dari harga penutupan pekan lalu sebesar Rp 3.725/saham. Rasio rights issue adalah 9:4 (9 saham lama mendapat 4 hak membeli saham baru).

Tambahan saham dan modal tersebut akan membuat rasio return on equity (ROE) BNI turun dari 21,7% menjadi 17,2%. Rekomendasi tetap Hold dengan target harga versi AAA Sekuritas adalah Rp 3.600. 

Riset AAA Sekuritas ini memiliki beberapa kemiripan dengan riset yang dilakukan Samuel Sekuritas.
                                    AAA Sekuritas                                    Samuel
Harga rights issue           Rp 3.050                                            Rp 2.070-2.960
Diskon                          18%                                                    -
Dilusi                            -                                                      18%
Skenario                       9:4                                                    9:2
ROE pascarights issue     21,7% menjadi 17,2%                           17,2% tahun 2011


Baca juga:
Riset Bank Negara Indonesia oleh Samuel Sekuritas



Riset BBNI oleh AAA Sekuritas

Riset United Tractors oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset United Tractor oleh NISP Sekuritas. Selama 8 bulan 2010, UT berhasil menjual 3.653 unit alat berat, naik 81,4% dari tahun lalu. Penjualan alat berat untuk pertambangan mencapai 3.188 unit dari 1.164 unit pada Agustus 2009.

NISP Sekuritas memperkirakan, kinerja kuartal III-2010 masih belum tumbuh dengan kuat. Target harga Rp 20.600.

Riset soal United Tractor oleh NISP Sekuritas

Asian Government's Should Refrain From Tightening `Too Quickly,' ADB Says

The Asian Development Bank raised its 2010 economic growth forecast for the region and said governments must refrain from tightening fiscal and monetary policies “too quickly” to sustain the expansion. 

Asia, excluding Japan, will grow 8.2 percent in 2010, faster than an April estimate of 7.5 percent, the Manila-based development lender said in a report today. The ADB maintained its 2011 growth forecast at 7.3 percent. 

Growth in Asia is outpacing the rest of the world, prompting policy makers to raise interest rates ahead of their counterparts in the U.S. and Europe to fight inflation and curb asset price bubbles. 

Asian emerging-market stocks have risen more than 8 percent this year in dollar terms, beating the 1 percent gain in global shares, indexes tracked by MSCI show.

“Shifting too quickly to fiscal and monetary tightening could heighten the risk of another contraction,” the ADB said in the report. “The global recovery remains shaky, and downside risks lurk. The possibility of a double-dip recession in the major industrial economies has not receded completely.” 

In one sign of the appeal of Asia’s growth, Julius Baer Group Ltd., the 120-year-old Swiss private bank, set up a desk in Singapore to serve wealthy Russians seeking to invest in the region, according to a report yesterday. The bank forecast as much as 20 percent annual growth in net money inflows from the region, compared with the global rate of as much as 6 percent. 

Rate Increases

India this month increased its benchmark interest rate a fifth time this year. Thailand in August raised its key rate and signaled further increases after the economy overcame political unrest to grow faster than estimated last quarter. Taiwan, Malaysia and South Korea are also among those that have boosted borrowing costs. 

In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve on Sept. 21 said it’s “prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery.” Household wealth in the U.S. fell 2.8 percent in the second quarter as share prices were depressed by the European debt crisis, according to the Fed’s Flow of Funds report on Sept. 17. 

Inflation in Asia will generally be within central banks’ “comfort zones” and may average 4.1 percent in 2010 and 3.9 percent in 2011, the ADB said. 

China will expand 9.6 percent this year, unchanged from the previous estimate, the ADB said. India’s economy will grow 8.5 percent this year, faster than the previous forecast of 8.2 percent, it said. 

The ADB forecast Indonesia’s economy will expand 6.1 percent this year, faster than the previous projection of 5.5 percent. Source: Bloomberg

Palm Oil Ends at Highest Price in 16 Months on Exports, Demand Optimism

Palm oil jumped to the highest close in more than 16 months as exports increased from Malaysia, the second-biggest producer, and as advancing stock markets boosted optimism over the economic recovery and commodity demand. 

December-delivery palm oil surged 1.3 percent to 2,735 ringgit ($885) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the highest finish since May 13, 2009. The tropical oil traded as high as 2,755 ringgit today. 

Palm oil exports from Malaysia climbed 15 percent to 1.08 million tons in the first 25 days of September compared with the same period in August, independent cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance estimated today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index reached a five-month high as a rebound in U.S. capital goods orders boosted optimism in the global economic recovery. 

“The buoyancy is liquidity-driven, as everyone wants to play the soft commodity theme, the whole Asian consumption story and dollar weakness,” Ben Santoso, a plantation analyst at DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte., said today. The gain in Malaysian exports was higher than expected, he said. 

While investors may be buying into “the bullish news,” in the short term, palm oil inventories “have turned back up again and by the end of this month will be even higher,” Santoso said. Prices reflect “a clear signal of exuberance,” he said. 

Palm oil has rallied for four straight weeks as demand rose ahead of festivals and excess rains hurt harvests, causing stockpiles to drop for seven months through July.

Malaysian inventories advanced in August, jumping 23 percent to 1.72 million tons from July, the country’s palm oil board said Sept. 15. 

Expanding Inventory

Inventories may rise again in September, hurting prices for “the next four to six weeks,” Dorab Mistry, a director at Godrej International Ltd. who has traded edible oils for more than three decades, said yesterday in Mumbai. 

“Prices will likely remain range-bound into the end of the year with not much catalyst to bring prices past 3,000 ringgit per metric ton,” said Bernard Ching, an analyst at ECM Libra Investment Research, in a report today. 

Stockpiles are likely to grow as increased supply coincides with diminishing demand as major festivals in China and Indonesia end. China, the largest user of edible oils, marked the mid-autumn festival last week and will celebrate National Day in the week starting Oct. 1. 

Indonesia, with the largest Muslim population, had its biggest Islamic holiday earlier this month, which traditionally spurs demand for palm oil. 

Palm oil may tumble as much as 7.4 percent by the end of October as Malaysian production rebounds and Indonesian growers speed up shipments, Mistry said. 

Growth in global vegetable oil supplies may lag behind demand for a third year, Mistry said yesterday. Palm oil may climb as high as 3,200 ringgit a ton by January as soybeans advance to $12 a bushel by December, he said. 

CME Group Inc.’s December-palm oil contract, which is pegged to the Malaysian benchmark price, was little changed at $889.50 a ton. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, May-delivery palm oil closed 2.6 percent higher at 7,794 yuan ($1,164) as trading resumed after a three-day break. Source: Bloomberg

BNI sees 2010 profit rise of up to 80 pct

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) (BBNI), Indonesia's fourth-biggest lender by assets, said on Monday that 2010 net profit could jump as much as 80 percent from 2009, as it expects to turn around non-performing loans.

Analysts forecast full-year 2010 net profit of 3.868 trillion rupiah ($432 million), according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, which would be a 56 percent increase on 2009, when BNI reported a net profit of 2.486 trillion rupiah.

In July, the bank reported first-half net profit rose 61 percent to 1.94 trillion rupiah, as fee income climbed.

BNI also sees loan growth of 15 to 20 percent in 2011, said Gatot M. Suwondo, BNI's president director. ($1=8953 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Chandra Asri rating will upgrade by Moody's

Moody's has today put on review for possible upgrade its B2 corporate family rating on PT Chandra Asri, and its B2 rating on the US$ bonds issued by Altus Capital Pte Ltd, which are guaranteed by Chandra Asri and PT Styrindo Mono Indonesia.

"The review was initiated in response to Chandra Asri's proposed merger with its Jakarta-listed sister company PT Tri Polyta Indonesia Tbk [TPIA], which should benefit the company's credit profile," says Renee Lam, a Moody's Vice President and lead analyst for Chandra Asri, in a press release that released yesterday.

The review acknowledges Chandra Asri's improved financial metrics, with reported debt to EBITDA at 1.9x for 1H 2010, predicated largely on petrochemical product spreads being stronger than expectations.

"The company has also enhanced its liquidity by expanding its banking relationships, which mitigates concerns about its limited financial flexibility," adds Lam.

Tri Polyta, majority owned by PT Barito Pacific Tbk, which is a common major shareholder of Chandra Asri, has been the latter's customer for propylene, accounting for 18% of Chandra Asri's sales revenue in 2009.

Tri Polyta has moderate leverage, with debt to EBITDA at 0.9x in 1H 2010 and a net cash position (as of June 31, 2010).

The proposed merger entails a share swap between Chandra Asri and TPIA, thus, Chandra Asri will not lay out any cash for the merger, and transaction costs should be modest.

Moreover, if completed, the transaction would result in further downstream integration of Chandra Asri, as well as higher sales and a more diversified customer base.

However, the management participation of Temasek, which holds 30% of Chandra Asrim, in the merged entity may be lower than its current level in the company.

Moody's considers Temasek's involvement in the privately held Chandra Asri an important mitigant to corporate governance concerns.

Nonetheless, the importance of this support element to Chandra Asri's credit profile may diminish, as the merged entity will be a publicly listed company, subject to disclosures and transparency requirements of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and Bapepam-LK.

Moody's also expects the proposed merger with 100% share swap will not trigger a change of control under the bond indentures.

In its review, Moody's will consider Temasek's involvement and role in the merged entity, and the resulting credit implications, the operating profile of the merged entity,  the projected financial profile, including the capital investment plans, of the combined entity, and the degree of support from the major lenders to the merged entity.

The last rating action with respect to Chandra Asri was taken on February 17, 2010, when its B2 ratings were affirmed and removed from their provisional status.

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 28 September 2010

 Hari ini, Selasa 28 September 2010, lima sekuritas ternama memberikan ulasan soal kondisi bursa yang akan terjadi, termasuk saham-saham pilihan yang patut Anda cermatin.

1. Trimegah Securities
IHSG kembali berhasil mencetak rekor tertingginya yang baru dengan kenaikan sebesar 2%. Penguatan yang tajam ini terjadi seiring dengan menguatnya bursa regional maupun global yang ikut memberikan sentimen positif pada kondisi pasar. Terbentuknya golden cross pada Stochastic menjadi indikasi terbukanya peluang untuk penguatan lanjutan. Pergerakan indeks hari ini diperkirakan berada di kisaran 3.446-3.494, dengan saham pilihan BBRI dan SMCB.

2. E-Trading Securities
IHSG menguat 70 poin (+2.01%) dan tutup di kisaran 3468, asing melakukan net buying  sebesar Rp 394 miliar terutama di sektor perbankan dan coal mining, pada hari ini IHSG akan berada dalam kisaran 3428 - 3486 dengan saham saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain BJBR, BUMI, ADRO, dan BRPT.

3. Panin Sekuritas
IHSG menguat lebih dari +2% pada perdagangan kemarin. Terlihat saham sektor perbankan menjadi sektor pendorong naiknya indeks terbesar. Ekspektasi rendahnya inflasi, prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cerah membuat pasar modal Indonesia masih cukup menarik bagi investor asing. Hari ini kami melihat indeks masih berpeluang untuk menguat menguji level resistance berikut di 3.500. Sedangkan untuk support di 3.432. Saham sektor perbankan dan konsumer tampaknya masih menjadi pilihan menarik untuk trading hari ini.

4. Sinarmas Sekuritas
IHSG berpeluang untuk menguji level psikologis 3.500 hari ini, seiring kuatnya inflow dana asing ke dalam negeri. Dalam perdagangan kemarin asing memposisikan net buying Rp 394,03 miliar. Disaran tetap waspadai akan aksi ambil untung, mengingat dalam dua hari terakhir kenaikan indeks cukup tinggi. Kisaran gerak indeks berada di level 3385 - 3537. Cermati saham ; BBRI, JMSR, INDF.

5. Reliance Securities
IHSG yang menguat 2% dengan dimotori saham ASII, BBCA dan GGRM dan foreign net buy sebesar Rp 185,573 miliar. IHSG pada perdagangan hari ini rawan profit taking, laporan ekonomi Amerika Serikat yang akan di rilis pada 28 September 2010 mengenai consumer confidence surveinya menurun sehingga memberi sentimen negatif terhadap bursa regional. Kisaran IHSG di level 3425-3517. Rekomendasi saham, BBRI, BDMN, ADRO, INCO.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 28 September 2010

Untuk perdagangan Selasa, 28 September 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan opsi Beli terhadap saham Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS), Adaro Energy (ADRO), dan Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG). Sedangkan satu saham lainnya, yakni Bank BJB (BJBR) direkomendasikan Sell.

BUY: (PGAS, ADRO, ITMG,) SELL: (BJBR)

• IHSG rawan profit taking namun masih ada beberapa emiten yang menyisihkan potensi melawan indeks karena belum mengikuti siklus sepenuhnya. 

• IHSG close (28-09) 3.461.585(+63.816/+1.88%) (Val.Rp.4.3T)

• Support: 3.410-3.340-3.275, Resistance: 3.480-3.550

 

Stock picks:

 

1.    Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS): (BUY) (Target: Rp 4.100) (close 27/09 Rp 3.875)

• Rekomen akumulasi pasca koreksi berlebihan akibat masalah produksi ini terutama karena emiten yang mengandalkan tema domestik-energy demand ini belum mengikuti laju IHSG dalam sebulan terakhir ini yang naik 10%.

• Entry: (1) Rp 3.850, Entry (2) Rp 3.775, cut-loss point: Rp 3.700 

 

2.    Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.150) (Close 20/09 Rp 2.050)

• Downgrade proyeksi produksi batubura dan earnings atau laba per saham FY2010 (EPS) sebesar 15% akibat ketakutan kinerja laporan keuangan 1H & Q3 2010 kelihatannya sudah cukup tercermin dalam koreksi harga 2-minggu lalu.

• Outlook masih optimistis karena efisiensi perusahaan melalui proyek conveyor belt & tambahan infrastruktur rel kereta dapat menaikan produksi batubara di 2011-2012.

• Entry (1) Rp 2.025, (2) Rp 1.980, Cut loss point: Rp 1.940

  

3.   Bank Jabar (BJBR) (SELL): (Koreksi: Rp 1.490) (Close 27/09 Rp 1.580)

• Menyambung rekomendasi "BUY" pada Jumat lalu, pembentukan new high serta kondisi jenuh beli (overbought) mulai menandakan bawah bahwa kenaikan harga sudah di atas potensi earnings & beberapa faktor positif kelihatan mulai priced in (terdiskon di harga) sehingga rekomen take profit.

• Exit: (1) Rp 1.600, Exit: (2) 1.640, Reverse posisi: Rp 1.690

  

4.   Indo-tambang Raya (ITMG) (BUY) (Target: Rp 42.600) (close 27/09 Rp 40.600)

• Potensi re-rating proyeksi pertumbuhan laba per saham (EPS growth) oleh beberapa analis fundamental pasca Q3 2010 keluar nanti, dividend yield, ROE & NPM tertinggi di sektornya dapat menunjang rally di atas Rp.40.000 berlanjut.

• Pasar mulai pricing-in bahwa beberapa tambang yang diakuisisi pada awal 2010 akan mulai beroperasi dan memberikan kontribusi ke kinerja di 2011. 

• Entry: (1) Rp 39.500, Entry (2) Rp 38.850, Cut-loss point: Rp 37.800

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)