PT Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ), an Indonesian mining company, gained 1.4 percent to 700 rupiah, after the stock was rated “buy” in new coverage at PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia, which said the company “has an ability to manage resource development and operating activities in developing countries.”
Monday, July 18, 2011
Indonesia cbank studies limits on bank ownership
* Cbank still assessing limits on ownership - Governor Darmin Nasution
* Any limit to force Temasek, TPG to cut stakes in local banks
Indonesia's central bank is studying limits on ownership in commercial banks, at a time when investor interest in buying stakes in local lenders has picked up given the strong industry growth in Southeast Asia's biggest economy.
Any regulation to limit foreign ownership would force Singapore state investor Temasek and private equity firm TPG Capital to cut their majority stakes in Bank Danamon and BTPN , respectively.
"We are still assessing it (ownership limits). We still need to make lots of simulations to see the impact if it's implemented, how many banks would have to change etc," central bank Governor Darmin Nasution told reporters on Monday.
"We cannot issue a regulation that isn't workable," he said.
No level of ownership or timeframe has been set, though Nasution said there was a possibility the regulation could be issued this year, with a lengthy transition period likely.
It is unclear whether state-owned banks, including Bank Mandiri and Bank Rakyat Indonesia , would be exempted.
RISK CONTROLS
Indonesia currently allows investors, including foreigners, to hold up to 99 percent of local banks, an effort to spur growth following the 1997 financial crisis that caused the government to close down many domestic lenders.
But banks' loan growth is now booming at over 20 percent a year, and so Indonesia is expected to see further banking consolidation as foreign buyers look to tap an emerging middle class and growing wealth.
Any single entity trying to own 25 percent or more of shares already needs approval from the central bank, also the country's banking regulator.
The central bank is also assessing bank risk controls in the wake of alleged embezzlement at Citi Indonesia and local Bank Mega .
Nasution has previously said he did not want banks to be controlled by one shareholder, during a hearing last year with the parliament that criticised the government's bailout of Bank Century, now called Bank Mutiara, during the financial crisis.
Temasek, which has run into trouble over ownership rules in Indonesia before, owns a 67.4 percent stake in the nation's sixth largest lender Bank Danamon, while TPG controls 59.7 percent of mid-sized lender BTPN.
It is not clear if the move could be applied retroactively.
"It is still very early stages now. It is a hugely complex move as many banks will have to sell down their stakes, find buyers, pricing etc. It's not gonna happen in a year," said Anand Pathmakanthan, a Singapore-based banking analyst at Nomura.
"There is a precedent that some countries don't apply (such rules) retrospectively," he said.
"I think the banking system had a lot of bad press recently about profits being too excessive and obviously foreigners are a big part of the banking system." Source: Reuters
Indonesian 2012 price pressures could rise on oil subsidy removal-c. bank
Indonesia could face higher inflationary pressures next year if the government scraps fuel subsidies but the central bank remains confident it can achieve its 2012 inflation target of 4.5 percent give or take 1 percent, the deputy central bank governor said on Thursday.
"Next year, inflation may be a problem because the government may not lift its fuel subsidies this year but do it next year. Next year, the inflationary pressure will be stronger on the economy," Budi Mulya told a briefing organised by Asia House in London.
"We anticipate that inflation expectations will be managed. We are confident that we are prepared for the possible move," he added.
The government has indefinitely delayed a plan to wean private car users off cheap gasoline from the second quarter. But an official from the energy ministry said the government may ban private vehicles from using subsidised fuel after the Islamic festive season of Eid al-Fitr at the end of August.
On Tuesday, the central bank held its benchmark policy rate at 6.75 percent, the fifth consecutive month it has done so, saying inflation is likely to stay under control and implying it may have room to hold rates in coming months. Source: Reuters
Indonesia cbank: end-2011 inflation may be 5.7 pct if subsidy curbs
Indonesian central bank deputy governor Hartadi A. Sarwono said on Thursday that inflation could pick up to 5.7 percent at the end of the year if the government limited the use of subsidised fuel.
He said earlier on Thursday that inflation could ease to 4.9 percent by the year-end. June inflation slowed to a 12-month low of 5.54 percent, and Bank Indonesia said on Tuesday that it expected price pressures ahead to be under control.
But a director at the energy ministry said on Thursday that Indonesia may ban private vehicles from using subsidised fuel after the Islamic festive season of Eid al-Fitr, which falls at the end of August. Source: Reuters
Indonesia cbank sees Q4 GDP growth at 6.7 pct
Indonesia's central bank expects economic growth in the fourth quarter to reach 6.7 percent from the same period last year, monetary policy director Perry Warjiyo said last week.
Bank Indonesia estimated 2011 full-year GDP growth would range between 6.3 to 6.8 percent. Source: Reuters
Bank Indonesia estimated 2011 full-year GDP growth would range between 6.3 to 6.8 percent. Source: Reuters
Bank Danamon plans rights issue this year
Bank Danamon , Indonesia's sixth-largest lender and controlled by Singapore's Temasek , plans to launch a rights issue this year and will seek shareholders' approval on Aug 22, it said in a statement last week.
It did not specify how much it wanted to raise through the rights issue.
"The capital raised will enable us to continue to improve our market position in Indonesia and to take advantage of opportunities arising in the near term," said Henry Ho, Danamon's chief executive officer in an emailed statement.
Danamon said it appointed Citigroup , Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), and Danareksa Sekuritas as standby buyers and arranger for the plan. Source: Reuters
BCA sees 2011 mortgage loan growth over 35 pct
Bank Central Asia , Indonesia's biggest lender by market value, sees its mortage loan growth at over 35 percent this year, outpacing its overall loan growth of over 20 percent on strong consumer demand in Southeast Asia's biggest economy.
BCA, controlled by Indonesian conglomerate Djarum Group, competes with market leader Bank Tabungan Negara and Bank CIMB Niaga in the mortgage market, where its loan growth was about 30 percent last year.
"I think we can expand our mortgage loans up to 35 percent this year and perhaps could reach 40 percent next year given our low rate," Jahja Setiaatmadja, BCA's new CEO, told Reuters.
The bank's loan to deposit ratio is 56 percent, meaning it has to park extra reserves with the central bank, which from March said it wanted commercial banks to use at least 78 percent and up to 100 percent of their deposits for lending.
Setiaatmadja plans to leverage rising wealth in the country by focusing on the securities business after it acquired Dinamika Usaha Jaya, a small brokerage owned by Djarum Group.
"We want to tap electronic trading for retail investors who want to invest in money and equity markets, as well as wealth management," he said. Source: Reuters
Sulfindo eyes up to $400 mln in stake sale-sources
Sulfindo Adiusaha, an Indonesian chemical producer, aims to raise up to $400 million by selling up to a 40 percent stake to a strategic partner to pay maturing debts, three sources with knowledge of the deal said.
Sulfindo is raising money via a stake sale after it did not issue a five-year fixed rate dollar bond in January because of weak investor interest, said two of the sources, who declined to be identified because the deal was not public.
"The company has no choice left given it has a highly leveraged financial profile," one of sources familiar with the deal told Reuters. "They aim to raise between $250 million to $400 million by selling a 30 to 40 percent stake."
Sulfindo did not respond to Reuters queries seeking comment.
Macquarie has been appointed as the financial advisor for the plan, the sources said. Macquarie declined to comment.
Standard & Poor's on May 16 downgraded Sulfindo's credit rating to CCC from B-, saying it faced a prolonged delay in obtaining sufficient external financing.
"We believe Sulfindo has weak sources of liquidity to cover its needs in the next nine months. We expect the company's liquidity sources of about $135 million to be barely sufficient to cover our estimate of its liquidity needs of $125 million over the next nine months," the report said.
The firm is controlled by the Victoria Group, which is owned by Indonesia's Tanojo family, who also owns small lender Bank Victoria and brokerage Victoria Securities.
Sulfindo produces caustic soda, chlorine, ethylene dichloride, vinyl chloride and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), products used in the pulp and paper industry, water treatment and for pipes, according to the company's website. Source: Reuters
Indonesia's cement sales in June up 20 percent y/y
Indonesia's cement sales, an indicator of infrastructure growth in Southeast Asia biggest economy, rose 20 percent in June from the same month last year, according to data from the country's cement association.
"I am surprised. This is above our expectation of 6 percent (growth) this year," Urip Trimuryono, chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association, told Reuters.
Total sales from January to June this year rose 14.8 percent from the same period in the previous year, also above the association's forecast. Source: Reuters
Indonesia's June car sales fall 0.33 pct y/y
Indonesia's domestic car sales, an indicator of consumer demand in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, slipped 0.33 percent to 70,157 units in June from 70,388 units in the same month a year ago, showing the pace of growth has slowed in the second quarter.
Car sales were lead by Toyota , Mitsubishi and Daihatsu , according to data from the Indonesian Automotive Association (Gaikindo).
Total sales for the first half of 2011 were 417,687 units, up 12.8 percent from the same last year.
Sales in May rose 0.9 percent year-on-year after a 7 percent fall in April, following strong double-digit growth in the first quarter. Sales in 2010 surged 57 percent to a record. Source: Reuters
Timah sees lower exports, higher revenue
Indonesia's Timah , the world's largest integrated tin miner, expects a slight decline in sales this year, but revenue could rise on higher tin prices.
Production and sales of refined tin were forecast to reach 40,000 tonnes in 2011, down slightly from 40,413 tonnes in 2010 due to tough competition from illegal miners in the main producing island of Bangka and Belitung, Chief Executive Wachid Usman was quoted as saying.
"(But) with an increase in prices, revenue is likely to rise as well as profits," said Usman.
Timah told Reuters in February that the tin price in 2011 will be around $25,000 to $30,000 per tonne.
Benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange was at around $27,00 a tonne, off a six-month low around $24,000 seen in June, when worries about a growth slowdown and European sovereign debt sparked selling.
Tin struck a record-high of around $33,000 in April.
The country's refined tin exports rose 35.4 percent in June from the year-ago period, as improving weather boosted mining and producers cashed in on a global price recovery to boost shipments, industry sources said this week.
Small smelters on Bangka and Belitung islands off Sumatra depend on small-scale traditional miners for about 80 percent of their ore supply.
The government brought in a new mining law in 2009 that restricts the operation of small-scale miners, who tend to operate in an undisciplined way, causing damage to the environment, and do not pay royalties. Source: Reuters
Indonesia's June tin exports rise 35 pct y/y
Indonesia's refined tin exports rose 35.4 percent in June from the same month last year, an official at the trade ministry.
Indonesia, the world's top tin exporter, shipped 10,875.25 tonnes of refined tin in June, compared to 8,029.92 tonnes in June last year, trade ministry data showed. Source: Reuters
Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, 15 Juli 2011
Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, Jumat 15 Juli 2011.
Kode saham Volume Jual Beli
| ABDA | 2.396.500 | 826.000 | 1.155.500 |
| ACES | 12.000 | 0 | 12.000 |
| ADHI | 3.222.000 | 0 | 1.677.500 |
| ADMG | 34.359.500 | 0 | 90.000 |
| ADRO | 27.400.500 | 1.723.000 | 12.131.500 |
| AISA | 9.398.500 | 0 | 134.000 |
| ALMI | 1.338.500 | 0 | 325.000 |
| AMAG | 38.746.500 | 0 | 115.000 |
| ARNA | 9.164.000 | 0 | 529.000 |
| ASGR | 2.555.500 | 0 | 1.225.000 |
| ASII | 3.064.000 | 1.466.500 | 2.288.500 |
| ASRI | 191.029.500 | 6.149.500 | 64.119.500 |
| AUTO | 2.093.000 | 0 | 19.500 |
| BBCA | 12.540.000 | 3.486.000 | 9.733.500 |
| BBKP | 12.371.500 | 3.500.000 | 4.508.500 |
| BBLD | 18.360.000 | 550.000 | 2.125.000 |
| BBNI | 24.226.500 | 6.338.500 | 10.792.500 |
| BBTN | 13.143.000 | 559.500 | 4.924.500 |
| BHIT | 8.452.500 | 0 | 8.500 |
| BISI | 6.856.000 | 0 | 13.000 |
| BJBR | 22.052.500 | 1.266.000 | 1.367.000 |
| BKSL | 196.358.000 | 2.510.000 | 3.732.000 |
| BMRI | 38.731.000 | 16.770.500 | 25.027.500 |
| BNBA | 3.355.000 | 0 | 250.000 |
| BNBR | 85.698.500 | 30.000 | 7.856.500 |
| BNII | 328.000 | 3.500 | 137.500 |
| BNLI | 470.500 | 0 | 309.000 |
| BPFI | 9.000 | 0 | 7.500 |
| BSDE | 13.462.500 | 6.613.500 | 7.231.000 |
| BTEL | 5.464.000 | 0 | 185.000 |
| BUDI | 20.195.000 | 50.000 | 5.000.000 |
| BULL | 81.429.500 | 0 | 31.000.000 |
| BUMI | 40.839.500 | 15.668.000 | 25.901.000 |
| BWPT | 5.043.500 | 0 | 500.000 |
| CFIN | 4.393.000 | 0 | 739.500 |
| CLPI | 10.004.500 | 0 | 80.500 |
| CPIN | 8.157.500 | 471.500 | 3.486.500 |
| CTRP | 3.549.000 | 200.000 | 487.000 |
| DILD | 2.866.500 | 0 | 250.000 |
| DOID | 38.269.500 | 0 | 901.500 |
| ELSA | 87.143.500 | 0 | 109.500 |
| EMDE | 2.894.000 | 0 | 2.546.000 |
| ENRG | 84.068.000 | 0 | 3.007.500 |
| ETWA | 134.000 | 0 | 89.000 |
| EXCL | 3.105.000 | 1.863.000 | 2.608.500 |
| FASW | 723.500 | 0 | 55.000 |
| GIAA | 13.856.000 | 0 | 20.000 |
| HEXA | 85.000 | 30.000 | 45.500 |
| ICBP | 12.023.000 | 51.500 | 7.117.000 |
| IMAS | 3.133.500 | 266.000 | 1.842.000 |
| INAI | 1.206.000 | 0 | 150.000 |
| INDF | 11.012.500 | 4.104.000 | 8.161.500 |
| INDS | 988.000 | 0 | 22.500 |
| INDY | 6.385.500 | 877.000 | 1.315.000 |
| INKP | 3.091.000 | 0 | 267.000 |
| INTA | 70.857.000 | 610.000 | 12.910.000 |
| INTP | 2.015.500 | 971.500 | 1.608.500 |
| INVS | 307.500 | 188.500 | 272.500 |
| IPOL | 35.624.500 | 0 | 3.500.000 |
| ITMG | 552.000 | 91.000 | 104.000 |
| JPFA | 2.943.500 | 225.000 | 580.500 |
| JSMR | 5.434.500 | 436.500 | 754.500 |
| KLBF | 9.010.500 | 3.003.000 | 5.767.000 |
| KRAS | 9.587.500 | 25.000 | 2.894.000 |
| LCGP | 26.953.000 | 0 | 1.533.000 |
| LTLS | 2.900.000 | 0 | 110.000 |
| MAIN | 6.664.500 | 0 | 9.500 |
| MAPI | 2.887.000 | 957.000 | 1.722.500 |
| MBSS | 7.128.500 | 0 | 1.800.000 |
| MBTO | 6.408.000 | 5.374.500 | 6.300.500 |
| MDRN | 164.500 | 0 | 63.500 |
| MICE | 8.524.500 | 10.000 | 200.000 |
| MIDI | 757.500 | 247.500 | 645.000 |
| MLPL | 1.765.500 | 0 | 200.000 |
| MYOR | 171.000 | 37.500 | 62.000 |
| PNIN | 3.503.500 | 0 | 205.000 |
| POLY | 39.578.000 | 100.000 | 187.500 |
| PTIS | 7.942.000 | 156.000 | 406.500 |
| PTPP | 8.025.000 | 0 | 4.375.500 |
| PWON | 4.613.500 | 0 | 773.500 |
| RALS | 1.296.500 | 373.000 | 642.500 |
| ROTI | 83.000 | 0 | 45.500 |
| RUIS | 1.163.000 | 0 | 200.000 |
| SCMA | 60.000 | 0 | 45.500 |
| SGRO | 11.682.500 | 65.000 | 3.901.500 |
| SMAR | 17.500 | 0 | 5.500 |
| SMGR | 7.580.500 | 1.914.000 | 3.022.500 |
| SMMA | 502.500 | 0 | 7.500 |
| SMSM | 1.323.000 | 0 | 50.000 |
| SSIA | 31.016.500 | 0 | 400.000 |
| SULI | 356.000 | 0 | 100.000 |
| TBIG | 2.020.000 | 0 | 49.000 |
| TBLA | 28.952.000 | 66.500 | 729.500 |
| TLKM | 12.578.500 | 3.508.000 | 7.082.500 |
| TOTL | 2.955.000 | 10.000 | 1.392.000 |
Rekomendasi HD Capital, 18 Juli 2011
Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Senin, 18 Juli 2011.
BUY: (TLKM, PGAS, INDF, ASII)
- Penutupan IHSG diatas all time high (4.023) dan dukungan dari Dow Jones yang masih positif di jalur hijau membuka ruang untuk saham big cap index drives yang terlupakan namun secara fundamental punya prospek menarik.
- IHSG close (15-07) 4.023.64 (+25.56/+0.64%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)
- Support: 3.996-3.910-3.820, Resistance:4.050-4.125-4.200
Stock picks:
1. Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) (BUY) (Target Rp 7.400) (Close 15/07 Rp 7.150)
- Mempunyai valuasi PER 2011 yang paling murah diantara big cap index drivers (9x), dan secara technical mulai keluar dari pattern downtrend pendek dengan breakout diatas Rp 7.100 dan membentuk higher low sehingga dapat disimpulkan bawah misi untuk mencoba mengetes resistance atas di Rp 7.250 dan price gap (Rp 7.400) sedang dalam proses berjalan.
- Entry (1) Rp 7.150, Entry (2) Rp 6.950, Cut loss point: Rp 6.850
2. Perusahaan Gas (PGAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 4.150) (Close 15/07 Rp 3.975)
- Mempunyai rasio profitabilitas (Return over Equity/ROE) yang paling tinggi diantara big cap index drivers BUMN (40%) dan secara technical mulai berkembang dari pola konsolidasi untuk breakout mengetes resistance atas di Rp 4.150.
- Entry: (1) Rp 3.950, Entry (2) Rp 3.900, Cut loss point: Rp 3.850
3. Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 72.500) (Close 14/07 Rp 68.950)
- Bila memang terjadi koreksi pasca mencetak all time high kemarin untuk menutup price gap pertama di Rp 68.800 bisa dijadikan kesempatan untuk akumulasi untuk ikut proses perjalanan uptrend yang masih berlangsung ini.
- Entry (1) Rp 68.800, Exit (2) Rp 67.200, Cut loss point: Rp 66.700
4. Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.150-6.300) (Close 15/07 Rp 5.950)
- Dividen Rp 133/saham dengan cum tanggal 26 Juni, penguatan rupiah yang mengurangi beban utang dan import cost gandum dalam US$, daya beli masyarakat tinggi yang dapat menopang kenaikan harga mie merupakan katalis positif untuk akumulasi.
- Entry: (1) Rp 5.950, Entry (2) Rp 5.850, Cut loss point: Rp 5.750
Dibuat oleh:
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)
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