Rekomendasi HD Capital, 9 Februari 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 9 Februari 2011.

BUY:  BBRI, BMRI, INDF, ADRO,

• Kenaikan Dow Jones, penguatan rupiah dan pembelian asing yang masih berjalan dapat offset sentimen negatif dari "proses" IPO Garuda yang menyebabkan IHSG terkoreksi sehingga membuat down-trend-line baru di 3.495

• Bila IHSG dapat menutup kembali di atas 3.495 maka baru bisa dikatakan bahwa sudah berada di "safe zone" untuk melanjutkan tren naik.

• Beberapa emiten bank dan consumer patut dilirik karena laju inflasi memang mulai turun perlahan (Dec 0.9%- Jan 0.8%) sehingga BI rate akan dipertahankan di level baru 6.75% untuk jangka waktu menegah mendatang.

• IHSG close (08-02) 3.459.93 (-27.77/-0.24%) (Val.Rp.2.6T)

• Support: 3.450-3.310, Resistance: 3.495-3.550-3.650

Stock picks:

1.    Bank BRI (BBRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 4.775) (close 08/02 Rp 4.825)

• Proyeksi pertumbuhan kredit 18% dan CAGR/ROE 23% masih memperhitungkan skenario bila BI rate hingga 7%

• Koreksi yang cukup dalam dari high di Rp 6000 membuat valuasi menarik: PER 2011 12x/PBV 2.7x dari sebelumnya di atas 16x, sehingga dapat memancing minat akumulasi pelaku pasar

• Entry: (1) Rp 4.800, Entry (2) Rp 4.700, Cut loss point: Rp 4.600

2.   Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.200) (Close 08/02 Rp 5.950)

• Pasca rights issue, BMRI akan mendapatkan dana untuk ekspansi sehingga dapat mempertahankan laju pertumbuhan kredit dan laba yang cukup tinggi seperti tahun 2010 silam.

• Valuasi dan kinerja fundamental juga menarik (PER 2011 11x/ PBV 2.4x) dengan ROE di atas 24%.

• Penguatan rupiah positif ke portfolio utang dalam US$ dan dapat menurunkan valuasi BMRI yang mengunakan perhitungan yield obligasi RI dalam Gordon Growth model.

• Entry (1) Rp 5.800, (2) Rp 5.700, Cut loss point: Rp 5.600

3.   ADRO Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.500) (Close 08/02 Rp 2.375)

• Koreksi minor yang terjadi diperkirakan hanya napas sesaat yang diperlukan untuk meneruskan proses trend recovery menuju down-trend-line di Rp 2.500

• Bila ADRO berhasil kembali ditutup di atas level Rp 2.400 (price gap) maka arah selanjutnya akan mengetes down-trend-line di Rp 2.500, bila itu terlewati maka tren sudah berubah menjadi short term positive untuk kembali ke high lama di Rp 2.700-2.900.

• Adjustment ke ASP (harga rata2 penjualan batubara) yang baru di awal 2011 dapat menaikan proyeksi laba analis sehingga menurunkan valuasi PER/PBV 2011F yang masih tinggi (diatas 15x)

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.325, Entry: (2) Rp 2.250, Cut loss point: Rp 2.200

4.    Indofood (INDF): (BUY) (Target: Rp 4.950) (Close 08/02 Rp 4.825)

• Beberapa katalis negative seperti kenaikan harga bahan baku mie instan (gandum) terbukti tidak mempunyai efek ke kinerja perusahaan seperti ditakutkan banyak orang

• Dengan valuasi PER 2011F 13x/PBV 2.7x dan ROE di atas 20%, hanya tinggal menunggu waktu untuk proses uptrend recovery terjadi akibat ulah akumulasi pelaku pasar yang mencari blue chip consumer big cap murah

• Entry: (1) Rp 4.725, Entry (2) Rp 4.625, Cut loss point: Rp 4.500

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

UPDATE 1-Wal-Mart in talks on partnership with Indonesia's Matahari-sources

* Partnership could involve taking stake - sources

* Partner may face tight retail margins - analyst

 

Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) is in talks to become a partner of Indonesian retailer PT Matahari Putra Prima (MPPA.JK) to develop its hypermarts, though South Korea's Lotte Shopping Co Ltd (023530.KS) has pulled out, sources said on Tuesday.

International retailers are jockeying for position in emerging markets as they look for sources of growth outside maturing U.S. and European markets, although the cost of competing is often too much to justify widespread expansion.

Lippo Group, an Indonesian conglomerate which controls Matahari via PT Multipolar (MLPL.JK), last month scrapped plans to sell its Hypermart chain because of low offers and instead opted to seek a global partner to expand.

"Lotte is out due to disagreement over pricing and branding," said one of the four sources with direct knowledge of the deal, who declined to be identified because the details were not public.

"However, Wal-Mart is still in talks with the group on the possible partner deal."

Wal-Mart and Lotte had both been interested in buying the Hypermarket assets, along with French retailer Casino Guichard Perrachon SA (CASP.PA) and private equity group Carlyle Group CYL.UL, in a sale that Lippo had hoped would raise over $1 billion.

The partnership could still involve taking a significant stake in Matahari to gain control over the hypermarket assets, the sources said.

Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, has a significant investment in China including 104 hypermarkts, and in India it has a joint venture with Bharti Enterprises, while Casino just bought Carrefour's (CARR.PA) Thai assets for $1.2 billion.

Lotte already has a significant presence in Indonesia with its Lottemart chain and is currently the fourth biggest hypermart player in Southeast Asia's biggest economy.
Indonesia has been an hot investment destination in the past two years, with its stock market surging 46 percent last year. Growing domestic consumption, together with public spending and investment, led fourth quarter 2010 GDP to rise 6.9 percent.

However, Ari Pitoyo, senior retail analyst at PT Mandiri Sekuritas in Jakarta, warned that firms looking for a slice of Indonesia's consumer sector could face tight profit margins.
"Indonesia's retail business is very tight in margins because it doesn't have bargaining power with food producers like Indofood and Unilever," Pitoyo said.

"Whoever comes in as a Matahari partner has to be very efficient, including in logistics, to reap the benefit, or will have to face some losses."

Multipolar, which owns a 48 percent stake in Matahari, appointed Bank Of America Merrill Lynch (BAC.N) to become its strategic advisor to seek a global partner for Matahari.
Hypermart is Indonesia's second-biggest hypermarket chain after PT Carrefour Indonesia, with 52 outlets in the world's fourth most populous nation, generating annual revenue of $1 billion. It told Reuters last month it is eyeing the top spot and aims to expand aggressively across the archipelago. Source: Reuters

Wal-Mart in Partner Talks With Indonesia Retailer, Reuters Says

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is in talks to partner with Indonesian retailer PT Matahari Putra Prima, Reuters reported, citing unidentified people with knowledge of the deal.

Wal-Mart is in discussions to develop Matahari’s hypermarkets, Reuters reported. Hypermarkets are large-format outlets that combine features of supermarkets with those of department stores.

Lotte Shopping Co., South Korea’s biggest retailer, has withdrawn from discussions for a deal with Matahari, according to Reuters. Matahari last month said it will seek a “global partner” to develop its Hypermart business.

Wal-Mart, the world’s biggest listed company, won’t comment on rumors or speculation, Anthony Rose, a Hong Kong-based vice president for corporate affairs, said in an e-mailed reply to questions. Officials of both Lotte Shopping and parent Lotte Group were unavailable for comment after office hours in Seoul. Source: Bloomberg

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 9 Februari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Rabu, 9 Februari 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan Selasa (8/2), IHSG ditutup turun 27 poin (-0,80%) ke level 3.459,93, setelah sempat naik pada awal sesi perdagangan. Asing melakukan net buying Rp 80 miliar dengan sektor yang paling banyak dimasuki adalah perbankan dan barang konsumsi. Kemarin, indeks masih terlihat bergerak mixed dan berada pada fase konsolidasi. Ini terlihat dari pattern sideways yang dibuat oleh chart IHSG. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak di kisaran 3.433-3.533. Amati AALI, ASII dan BMRI.

2. Kresna Sekurindo

IHSG masih konsolidasi setelah gagal menembus resitance pada perdagangan kemarin. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan masih cenderung tertekan dan bergerak di kisaran 3.410-3.500. PGAS dan INDF menjadi saham pilihan kami.

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Sejumlah saham sektor barang konsumsi, manufaktur, aneka industri menyeret indeks hingga melemah 27,7 poin menjadi 3.459,93. Gangguan keamanan di Temanggung, Jawa Tengah, juga menjadi penyebab merosotnya indeks. Meski begitu, broker asing melakukan beli bersih Rp 219 miliar. Secara teknikal, indikator demand index bergerak turun di area negatif, sementara indikator long term moving average menunjukkan bear alert/bullish. Sedangkan indikator weekly MACD underperform dari neutral.

Seiring dengan itu, indeks hari ini diperkirakan melemah pada kisaran 3.434-3.476. Hold INDF dan JSMR. Sell ANTM, BUMI, ITMG, PGAS, dan UNSP.