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Friday, June 24, 2011

Indonesia Stocks May Extend Winning Streak

The Indonesian stock market picked up less than a pair of points on Thursday - but that was enough to extend its winning streak to four sessions, gathering nearly 100 points or 2.7 percent in that span. The Jakarta Composite Index finished just below the 3,825-point plateau, and now analysts are suggesting that the market may have a bit more upside left in it at the opening of trade on Friday.

The global forecast for the Asian markets is conflicted, pitting optimism regarding the Greek debt crisis against pessimism regarding U.S. economic data. Crude oil stocks are expected to see considerable pressure, along with gold and property stocks - while airlines, technology, retail and telecom stocks are expected to rise. The European markets finished sharply lower and the U.S. bourses were mixed, and the Asian markets figure to follow the latter lead.

The JCI finished barely higher on Thursday, nudged into the green by gains from the pharmaceuticals and telecoms.

For the day, the index added 1.82 points or 0.05 percent to finish at 3,823.65 after trading between 3,801.70 and 3,829.63. Volume was 7.6 billion shares worth 3.9 trillion rupiah. There were 103 gainers and 103 decliners.

Among the gainers, Kimia Farma surged 24.4 percent, while Indofarma spiked 17.1 percent, Multistrada Arah Sarana added 1.9 percent and Tower Bersama Infrastructure collected 4.4 percent.

The lead from Wall Street provides little clarity as stocks staged a significant recovery in late-day trading on Thursday after a weak start, ending the session mixed. Reports about a deal on Greece's austerity plan helped to offset concerns about the economic outlook.

The early weakness on Wall Street was partly in reaction to the Federal Reserve's downwardly revised economic growth outlook, which was released late in the day on Wednesday. Indicating that the economic recovery is continuing at a somewhat slower than expected pace, the Fed downwardly revised its growth outlook for 2011 and 2012.

Additional selling pressure was generated by the release of a report from the Labor Department showing a notable increase in initial jobless claims in the week ended June 18.
Resource stocks helped to lead the way lower amid a sell-off in the commodities markets. The price of oil fell by more than $4 a barrel on news that the International Energy Agency plans to release 60 million barrels of oil onto the world market.

However, buying interest emerged later in the trading day after reports that Greece has won the consent of a group of inspectors from the European Union and International Monetary Fund regarding its new five-year austerity plan. The inspectors approved the plan after Greece committed to an additional round of tax rises and spending cuts. While the reported deal has generated some optimism about the outlook for the financial situation in Greece, the austerity measures still must be approved by the Greek parliament. Source: RRT News

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, 23 Juni 2011

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, Kamis 23 Juni 2011.
Kode Saham                         Volume                     Jual                      Beli
AALI 746,000 73,000 632,500
ADHI 1,553,000 5,000 111,000
ADMG 93,891,500 255,000 1,010,000
AKRA 28,258,500 4,748,000 9,185,500
AMRT 110,000 0 107,500
ANTM 13,502,000 335,500 902,500
APLN 6,462,500 0 50,000
ASGR 859,000 0 200,000
ASII 4,411,000 1,459,500 2,131,000
AUTO 218,000 2,500 10,000
BBCA 10,342,500 3,165,500 5,613,000
BBNI 9,376,500 340,500 5,345,500
BBRI 26,424,000 6,256,500 14,919,000
BDMN 3,894,500 122,000 897,500
BHIT 51,414,000 7,127,000 22,814,500
BKSL 9,948,500 0 1,000,000
BMRI 17,419,500 6,753,000 7,722,500
BMTR 10,079,500 986,000 4,827,500
BNBR 207,156,000 92,500 961,000
BNGA 342,000 0 37,000
BNII 465,000 50,000 120,000
BRAU 16,371,500 0 10,000
BTEL 21,365,500 0 4,843,500
BTPN 106,000 0 71,500
BULL 44,627,000 50,000 100,000
BUMI 58,512,500 12,598,500 22,150,000
BYAN 270,500 117,000 162,000
CLPI 16,947,000 65,000 353,500
CPIN 12,105,500 15,500 9,315,000
CTRP 3,669,500 2,000,000 3,143,500
ELTY 150,704,000 25,000 35,968,500
EMTK 66,000 0 37,500
ENRG 572,989,500 29,746,500 75,800,000
FISH 246,500 0 180,500
GGRM 343,000 179,000 232,500
GJTL 5,003,500 137,500 1,764,500
HEXA 327,500 0 93,500
HRUM 5,362,500 113,000 1,095,000
ICBP 3,766,500 56,000 2,039,000
INDS 11,502,500 18,500 510,500
INDY 7,204,500 847,000 5,286,500
INTP 602,500 131,500 318,000
IPOL 96,493,000 137,500 9,075,000
ISAT 3,667,000 533,000 889,500
ITMG 242,000 20,500 66,500
JKON 51,500 0 50,000
JSMR 3,888,000 1,181,500 2,288,500
JTPE 12,209,000 2,500 400,500
KAEF 102,853,500 1,750,000 20,000,000
KIJA 11,814,000 500,000 4,159,500
KKGI 788,000 16,500 390,000
LPKR 132,882,000 27,500 66,679,500
LSIP 24,288,000 14,287,000 16,942,500
MAPI 987,500 149,500 178,000
MBSS 3,673,000 0 110,000
MDRN 154,000 0 154,000
META 525,500 0 502,000
MIDI 593,500 0 68,000
MITI 3,498,500 0 1,316,500
MYOR 103,000 8,500 101,500
PBRX 8,631,500 0 1,000,000
PTPP 4,200,000 0 4,000,000
RALS 7,258,500 3,500,000 3,902,000
SDRA 18,355,000 0 600,000
SIMP 19,951,500 0 15,247,500
SMGR 2,076,000 335,500 1,048,000
SMRA 9,117,500 3,089,000 7,991,500
SULI 2,581,000 0 500,000
TBLA 6,677,500 10,000 186,000
TURI 21,522,500 25,000 5,025,000
UNTR 4,565,000 679,000 1,358,000
WIKA 535,000 0 56,500
WINS 598,000 0 50,500

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 24 Juni 2011

 Rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Jumat, 24 Juni 2011.
1. E-Trading Securities
Perdagangan kemarin, indeks naik 1 poin (0,05%) ke level 3.823. Investor asing membukukan net buying Rp 288 miliar.  Secara teknikal, IHSG hari ini berpotensi melemah, karena candlestick membentuk pola spinning top di puncak yang mengindikasikan bearish reversal. Kisarannya berada di range 3.794–3.843. Amati TINS dan ANTM.

2. Kresna Sekurindo
Sentimen global kembali membuat indeks konsolidasi dengan 3.789 sebagai support kunci. Hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.800-3.855 dengan UNVR dan BDMN sebagai saham pilihan.

3. Indo Premier Securities
Kurang transparannya kebijakan moneter yang akan diterapkan The Fed pasca-quantitative easing II membuat bursa saham dunia kembali turun. Namun, indeks saham domestik naik, karena investor enggan meninggalkan pasar dan mulai mengakumulasi sejumlah saham.  Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan dipengaruhi berita positif dari Yunani.  Kisarannya di level 3.700-3.825 dengan BMRI, BORN sebagai stock picks.

Outlook Saham Bulan Juni oleh HD Capital

Monthly Strategy-June (24-06-2011) (BUY):
"Masih optimistis akan arah IHSG"

  • Potensi retracement ke 3.900 di bulan Juli: Secara technical walaupun weekly MACD sudah memberikan SELL signal crossover, namun biasanya kenaikan (retracement) ke atas sebesar 200-point selama 2 minggu dapat terjadi untuk memberikan kesempatan trading.

  • Domestic factor: Fundamental ekonomi seperti penguatan rupiah, inflasi terkendali membuat ancaman kenaikan BBM dan BI rate semakin kecil sehingga dana asing masih akan mengalir masuk dan liquiditas domestic di bursa masih mengalir.


  • Regional: Krisis Yunani yang menyebabkan penurunan kemarin mulai mereda dan sikap Fed yang realistis namun masih optimistis (mengakui bahwa ekonomi melambat sehingga membiarkan zero rate policy hingga akhir tahun dengan skenario pemulihan ekonomi akan lambat laun terjadi) terhadap perekonomian AS dan global memberikan kepastian situasi yang jelas terhadap investor.

  • Rekomendasi Portofolio & Target Price 1-bulan:

 





Ticker
 TP 1 bln
PER11F
PBV11F
ROE11F
ASII
Rp 61.500
12x
3.5x
31%
BMRI
Rp 7.200
11x
2.6x
26%
BBCA
Rp 7.400
22x
4x
22%
PGAS
Rp 4.200
11x
5x
50%
BBRI
Rp 6.500
12x
3x
31%
UNSP
Rp 460
6x
0.7x
11%
UNTR
Rp23.800
16x
4x
29%




Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 24 Juni 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Jumat, 24 Juni 2011.
BUY: ENRG, TLKM, BUMI, GJTL

  • Keberhasilan IHSG bertahan di atas resistance lama Fibonacci 61.8% (3.815) walaupun terimbas koerksi regional menandakan bahwa akan terjadi full retracement rally ke all time high lama di 3.880.


  • Grup Bakrie dan beberapa saham lapis dua dengan fundamental yang cukup prospektif belum naik signifikan.


  • IHSG close (23-06) 3.832.683(+1.629/+0.43%) (Val.Rp.3.2T)

  • Support: 3.770-3.730, Resistance: 3,880-3.950

 

Stock picks:

1.      Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) (BUY) (Target Rp 7.450) (Close 23/06 Rp 7.200)

  • Saham blue chip dengan kapitalisasi paling besar yang diperdagangkan dengan valuasi termurah adalah TLKM: PER 2011 (9.49x), PBV (2.4x) sehingga pelaku pasar mulai ikut dalam proses perbaikan tren menuju price gap atas di Rp 7.350-7.400 yang belum ditutup.


  • Entry (1) Rp 7.150, Entry (2) Rp 7.000, Cut loss point: Rp 6.850


 

2.    Energi Mega Persada (ENRG) (BUY): (Target: Rp 235) (Close 22/06: Rp 210)

  • Earnings recovery story dan gambaran technical menarik (pattern higher low, daily stochastic cross up buy diatas 50-line) memberikan bayak upside untuk saham lapis dua ini yang kelihatannya akan mencoba break high di atas Rp 215.


  • Entry (1) Rp 200, Entry (2) Rp 190, Cut-loss point: Rp 187




3.    Bumi Resources (BUMI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.375) (Close 23/06 Rp 3.250)

  • Akumulasi oleh pelaku pasar yang didorong oleh proyeksi laba 2011-2012 yang optimis didukung oleh harga ASP dan volume produksi batubara sesuai ekspektasi menggagalkan usaha untuk menutup price gap bawah di 3.125 dan sekarang arah berubah untuk retrace atas ke 50-days moving average di 3.375


  • Entry: (1) Rp 3.175, Entry (2) Rp 3.100, Cut loss point: Rp 2.975

 




4.   Gajah Tunggal (GJTL) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.250) (Close 23/06 Rp 2.975).


  • Secara technical terjadi crossover buy oleh moving average 5 dan 10 harian, daily stochastic lima harian bergerak nukik ke 50-line, yang kurang cuma tinggal penutupan di atas high kemarin (Rp 3.050), bila itu terjadi maka tren jangka pendek berubah naik untuk target berikutnya di Rp 3.250.


  • Entry: (1) Rp 2.950, Entry (2) Rp 2.850, Cut loss point: Rp 2.725


 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)