Indonesia 2011 inflation could below 6 pct if fuel subsidy cut delayed

Indonesia's annual inflation rate in 2011 could be below 6 percent if the government delays a plan to cut fuel subsidies for private cars, said central bank governor Darmin Nasution on Monday.

Indonesia's chief economic minister Hatta Rajasa had said the government decided to delay the plan, without mentioning a timeline.

A government official said earlier the government had decided to delay scrapping fuel subsidies for private cars until July 1.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's statistics bureau chief Rusman Heriawan said on Monday that monthly inflation in March might be close to monthly inflation in February of 0.13 percent.

China’s Coal Purchases Drop to 23-Month Low on Higher Prices

China’s net imports of coal dropped to the lowest in 23 months in February after prices increased and demand fell during the Lunar New Year holiday, customs data showed today.

Net purchases of the power-station fuel slumped 67 percent to 5 million metric tons last month from January, according to data released by the Beijing-based Administration of Customs.

Higher global coal prices hampered China’s imports of the fuel. The weeklong Chinese Lunar New Year break also reduced demand from the world’s largest energy user, said David Fang, head of the international department at China Coal Transport and Distribution Association.

“Coal purchased dropped significantly because of the delayed effect of higher global prices,” Fang said by telephone from Beijing today. “Domestic coal demand will stay weak in coming months as the weather gets warmer and hydro-power generation increases.”

China paid $114 a ton for the fuel last month, compared with an average $102.70 last year. Coal imports from Indonesia, China’s largest supplier of the fuel, fell 56 percent from a year earlier to 2.48 million tons, at $83 a ton. Coal purchases from Australia, the second biggest, fell 54 percent to 1.52 million tons, at $169 a ton. That compares with $147 a ton in 2010 for the Australian varieties and $79 a ton for the Indonesian fuel.

Chinese power plants’ inventories of coal fell to 53.9 million tons at the end of February, or enough for 16 days of supply, the China Electricity Council said on March 18. Source: Bloomberg

Monnet Ispat arm acquires coal mine in Indonesia

Monnet Ispat and Energy Ltd through its 100 subsidiary Monnet Global Ltd has completed the acquisition of Indonesian Coal Company-PT Sarwa Sembada Karya Bumi, at US$24 mn in the Jambi province of Sumatra, Indonesia.

The acquisiton gives MGL, access to one of the largest Thermal Coal Mine spreading over an area of 25,000 hectares.

Sandeep Jajodia, Executive Vice Chairman and Managing Director, Monnet Group said, "The acquisition of the Indonesian Coal Company PT Sarwa is of strategic importance for the group as the logistic of the mine is excellent and being located in Sumatra, the shipping cost and low transit time to India will make the cost effective. Source: Indiainfoonline

Monthly Strategy HD Capital Maret 2011: IHSG Kembali ke 3.600

Monthly Strategy-November (18-03-2011) (BUY): 
"IHSG kembali digoyang ke 3.600 bulan April"

 

• Rebound: Setimen positif dari kenaikan peringkat hutang Fitch ke BBB- (investment Grade), penguatan rupiah, inflasi terkendali dan BI rate stabil, serta ditundanya kenaikan BBM sampai waktu yang tidak jelas menjadi katalis positif untuk mengerek IHSG kembali ke reistance psikologis di 3.600.

• Banking & Consumer sector play: Margin penjualan emitten yang didorong oleh kemampuan daya beli masyarakat tinggi, suku bunga rendah, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kurangnya competitor asing membuat segmen consumer seperti ASII, ASRI & INDF masih menarik untuk akumulasi, sedangkan sector perbankan seperti BBCA (bergelut di fee based income) & BMRI (high margin low risk mikro UKM) layak dilirik karena cost of fund mereka yang murah masih dapat dipertahankan selama BI rate belum dinaikan secara aggresif. 

• Nuclear out, coal is in: Beralihnya Negara di Dunia dari tenaga nuklir pasca kejadian di Jepang ke tenaga batubara untuk pembangkit listriknya dapat mengangkat harga batubara spot sehingga ASP (average selling price) emitten batubara yang export akan di adjust ke atas. Rekomen emitten yang mempunyai pangsa export seperti BUMI & ADRO.

• Rekomendasi Portofolio & Target Price 1-bulan: 

• Ticker	TP 1 bln	PER11F	PBV11F	ROE11F
  ASII	Rp 57.500	13x	2.9x	29%
  INDF	Rp 5.250	12x	2.6x	25%
  ADRO	Rp 2.550	18x	3.6x	12%
  BUMI	Rp 3.300	16x	2.4x	31%
  BBRI	Rp 5.350	12x	2.5x	27%
  BBCA	Rp 6.950	16x	2.7x	25%
  BMRI	Rp 6.350	13x	2.8x	22%

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital.

(Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 21 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Senin, 21 Maret 2011.

 

BUY: (MNCN, BBRI, ASII, INDF)

• Penutupan IHSG diatas level 3.475 secara mingguan membuka jalan untuk kembali menuju level psikologis 3.600 didorong oleh sentiment positif regional, penguatan rupiah serta kinerja emitten consumer dan perbankan yang relative baik di 2010 sehingga membuat proyeksi 2011 lebih optimis

• IHSG close (18-01) 3.506(+16.725/+0.48%) (Val.Rp.3.4T) 

• Support: 3.475-3.450, Resistance: 3,650-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.     Media Nusantara (MNCN): (BUY) (target: Rp 1.050) (close 18/03 Rp 940)

• Emitten yang bergerak di bidang media ini bisa menjadi consumer-play untuk 2^nd liners dengan valuasi menarik (PER 2011F 12x/PBV 1.9x), utang rendah (DER 0.67x) serta ROE 21%.
• Secara technical terjadi cross buy dari stochastic crossover untuk melanjutkan rebound dari support 50-days MA di Rp.930 dengan target pertama di Rp.1.050

• Entry (1) Rp.930, Entry (2) Rp.910, Cut loss point: Rp.880

 

 

2.   Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 5.350) (Close 18/03 Rp 5.000)

• Fokus ke bank  dengan qualitas pinjaman yang baik dan struktur funding murah seperti BBRI yang menyalurkan ke high margin Usaha Kredit Mikro bersifat low risk terhadap kejadian external

• ROE 30% tertinggi di antara semua bank pemerintah & cost of fund murah

• Entry (1) Rp.5.000, Entry (2) Rp.4.950, Cut loss point: Rp.4.875

 

 

3.   Indofood (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp.5.200) (Close 18/03 Rp.4.950)

• Secara valuasi menarik PER 2011F 12x dengan target fundamental Rp.5.600 12-bulan kedepan.

• Kelihatannya dalam next rally sector consumer akan ikut didukung oleh inflasi terkendali pasca pembatasan BBM ditunda serta penguatan rupiah yang menurunkan imported cost bahan baku dan menaikan consumer confidence (daya beli) masyarakat.

• Entry: (1) Rp.4.925, Entry (2) Rp.4.850, Cut loss point: Rp.4.750

 

 

4.  Astra International (ASII) (BUY) (Target: Rp.56.200) (close 18/03 Rp.54.100)

• Proyeksi kedepan masih on track untuk laba 2011 yang diperkirakan akan mencapai target forecast HD capital riset di Rp.14.1 T (sebelumnya forecast 2010F 12.4T terlampui dengan actual result 2010 yang 14.4T)

• Pasar optimis menunggu hasil penjualan mobil dan motor untuk Maret 2011.

• Secara valuasi menarik, target 12-bulan kedepan saja memberikan angka Rp.80.000 dengam asumsi PER 2011F 14.5x, sehingga dengan adanya kenaikan 15% dari forecasted ke actual 2010 maka seharusnya target 12-bulan Rp.80.000 merupakan angka cukup konservatif. 

• Entry (1) Rp.54.000, Entry (2) Rp.53.700, Cut loss point: Rp.53.100

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)