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Monday, June 20, 2011

Indonesia Stocks May Reverse Recent Losses

The Indonesian stock market has finished lower in back-to-back sessions, giving away more than 70 points or 1.8 percent on its way to a fresh two-month closing low. The Jakarta Composite Index settled just above the 3,720-point plateau, and now analysts are predicting a modest rebound at the opening of trade on Monday.

The global forecast is mixed with a hint of upside on easing concerns regarding the Greek debt crisis. Airlines are expected to provide support, along with property stocks and financials, while commodities remain slightly soft and technology stocks could see profit taking. The European markets finished slightly higher and the U.S. bourses were mixed but little changed - and the Asian markets are tipped to follow that lead.

The JCI finished modestly lower on Friday following losses among the mining stocks and agricultural companies.

For the day, the index declined 18.17 points or 0.49 percent to finish at 3,722.30 after trading between 3,704.58 and 3,759.20. Volume was 5.2 billion shares worth 4.6 trillion rupiah. There were 161 decliners and 71 gainers.

Among the actives, Aneka Tambang lost 2.4 percent, Bakrie Sumatera Plantations shed 1.2 percent and London Sumatra dropped 3.2 percent, while Bank Mandiri added 0.7 percent and Bank Rakyat Indonesia collected 0.8 percent.

The lead from Wall Street provides little clarity as stocks gave back ground on Friday after failing to sustain an initial upward move. The early strength was partly due to reassuring comments from French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel regarding efforts to provide further financial assistance to Greece.

After a two-hour meeting in Berlin, Sarkozy and Merkel announced that they had reached an agreement under which Germany would drop its demand that private investors participate in a new Greek bailout package, indicating that the participation of private creditors would be voluntary. Sarkozy called the agreement a "breakthrough" and noted that France and Germany want the new round of financial assistance to be worked out as quickly as possible.

However, a report from Reuters and the University of Michigan showing a notable deterioration in consumer sentiment in the month of June may have helped to offset some of the early buying interest. Reuters and the U of M said that the preliminary reading on their consumer sentiment index came in at 71.8 in June, down from the final May reading of 74.3. Economists had been expecting the index to edge down to a reading of 74.0.

News that Moody's placed Italy's credit ratings on review for possible downgrade also contributed to some market weakness. The reaction to the news reflected the continued concerns about the financial situation in Europe. Source: RRTNews

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 20 Juni 2011

Berikut rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Senin, 20 Juni 2011.
1. E-Trading Securities
Perdagangan Jumat pekan lalu, IHSG ambles 18 poin (-0,49%) ke level 3.722. Investor asing melakukan net selling  Rp 119,4 miliar. Belum tampak adanya potensi rebound melihat indikator Stochastic membentuk deathcross dan RSI downtrend. Hari ini indeks diperkirakan bergerak pada range 3.689–3.746 dengan kecenderungan melemah. Perhatikan AALI, DEWA, dan UNTR.  

2. Kresna Sekurindo
Sentimen global yang belum kondusif membuat IHSG kembali dalam tekanan jual. Hari ini, IHSG masih berisiko dalam tekanan dan diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.680-3.755. INCO dan LSIP menjadi saham pilihan.

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas  
Pada perdagangan Senin (20/6), secara teknikal, indeks cenderung bergerak melemah pada kisaran 3.700-3.775. Sentimen eksternal seperti perkembangan krisis utang Yunani serta data ekonomi AS masih akan memberikan sentimen terhadap indeks. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan SMCB, INTP, INCO, PGAS

4. Sucorinvest Central Gani
IHSG hari ini diperkirakan melemah pada kisaran 3.701-3.738. Empat indikator teknikal bergerak turun. Misalnya, Stochastic Oscillator dead cross di area normal, sedangkan indikator short term MA bearish. Adapun weekly MACD menunjukkan dead cross.

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli, 17 Juni 2011

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli Jumat, 17 Juni 2011.
Kode Saham                        Volume                      Jual                     Beli




AALI 1,255,000 568,000 1,039,500
ADMF 47,500 0 25,000
ADMG 10,867,000 0 637,500
ADRO 47,279,500 12,070,000 26,014,000
AKRA 10,251,500 100,000 3,104,000
AMFG 234,000 0 3,500
APLN 16,750,000 0 1,248,500
ARNA 787,500 0 250,000
ASGR 969,000 0 26,000
BBCA 18,631,000 3,240,500 6,356,000
BBKP 22,467,000 224,000 8,349,000
BBTN 20,710,000 4,723,500 15,989,500
BISI 2,196,000 3,000 477,000
BJBR 27,347,500 5,533,500 7,213,500
BKSW 1,383,500 0 1,000,000
BMRI 26,245,500 7,318,000 15,070,000
BNII 851,000 4,500 164,500
BRAU 155,018,000 12,265,000 134,346,000
BTEL 20,133,500 512,000 885,500
BVIC 1,170,500 0 250,000
BYAN 193,000 26,500 72,000
CLPI 10,697,500 10,000 160,500
CPIN 13,297,000 1,116,000 6,938,000
DART 1,208,500 0 262,000
DEWA 354,309,500 0 51,704,500
DGIK 3,274,000 0 100,000
DILD 7,038,500 1,500,000 2,020,000
EXCL 3,273,500 564,500 2,068,500
FAST 38,500 0 20,000
GGRM 1,190,500 425,500 798,000
GIAA 15,575,000 5,000 20,000
HEXA 340,000 0 317,500
ICBP 8,110,000 1,830,000 5,631,500
INDF 6,927,500 2,269,000 2,761,500
INDY 13,725,500 4,092,500 4,156,000
INTP 3,358,500 924,500 2,224,000
INVS 316,000 127,000 313,500
IPOL 29,127,000 0 6,250,000
ISAT 3,089,000 352,000 565,000
JPFA 2,518,000 56,500 97,500
JPRS 3,149,500 0 150,000
KIJA 15,264,500 0 5,554,000
KKGI 674,000 0 71,500
KRAS 19,911,000 25,000 437,500
LPKR 67,101,000 3,859,500 17,550,000
LPPS 5,062,500 0 1,000,000
LSIP 15,045,000 4,040,000 8,480,500
LTLS 570,000 208,000 375,000
MAPI 4,880,000 2,059,500 2,984,000
MDRN 271,500 17,500 160,500
MEDC 7,397,500 2,041,500 3,191,500
MNCN 10,628,000 4,176,000 5,305,500
MYRX 8,462,000 0 272,000
PANS 981,500 0 20,000
PGAS 24,997,000 10,687,500 12,625,500
PNBN 190,000 0 80,000
PNLF 1,897,000 0 1,120,500
PTPP 3,893,500 0 2,704,500
PTSP 105,500 0 100,000
RMBA 1,706,500 1,325,500 1,500,000
ROTI 192,500 50,000 85,000
SGRO 8,262,500 868,500 2,645,000
SIMP 57,089,500 22,752,000 25,758,500
SMCB 12,021,500 681,500 3,802,500
SMGR 8,123,500 1,523,500 4,823,000
SMRA 4,299,500 1,731,500 2,633,500
TBIG 3,144,000 510,500 990,500
TBLA 3,368,500 50,000 207,500
TKIM 170,000 5,000 34,500
TRUB 69,912,000 0 5,025,000
TURI 1,894,000 0 102,500
UNTR 3,781,500 783,000 2,491,500
WIKA 4,896,000 1,051,000 2,904,000

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 20 Juni 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Senin, 20 Juni 2011.
BUY: (UNSP, ENRG, ASII, UNTR)
  • Walaupun IHSG terkoreksi kembali akibat efek regional, namun beberapa emiten mulai menunjukan tanda oversold dengan potensi rebound. 
  • IHSG close (17-06) 3.722.30(-18.17/-0.49%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)
  • Support: 3.700-3,630, Resistance: 3,780-3.850
 
Stock picks:
1.     Bakrie Sumatra (UNSP) (BUY) (Target Rp 435-450) (Close 17/06 Rp 415)
  • Outlook CPO yang masih positif, earnings recovery pasca rights issue tahun lalu untuk menghapus utang dan akuisisi anak usaha domba Mas yang menambah nilai kinerja serta valuasi PER/PBV yang jauh lebih rendah dari sektornya dapat mendorong technical rebound di atas price gap Rp 435.
  • Entry (1) Rp 415, Entry (2) Rp 405, Cut loss point: Rp 395
 
2.    Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 59.700) (Close 17/06 Rp 58.300)
  • Walaupun mengalami koreksi minor untuk menutup posisi gap harga bawah di Rp 57.000, namun daily stochastic masih cross up dan menyeberang 50 neutral line sehingga momentum naik untuk menguji high 3-minggu terakhir di Rp 59.700 masih on track.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 58.100, Entry (2) Rp 57.450, Cut loss point: Rp 56.350
 
3.   Energi Mega Persada (ENRG) (BUY): (Target: Rp 205) (Close 17/06 Rp 194)
  • Optimisme investor asing maupun local mengenai proses pemulihan laba kedepan (ENRG akhirnya dapat membukukan laba di 2011 setelah sebelumnya 2 tahun berturut-turut mengalami rugi financial) masih berjalan sehingga menahan downside lebih lanjut di saham tersebut.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 193, Entry (2) Rp 189, Cut loss point: Rp 186
 
4.       United Tractors (UNTR) (BUY): (Target: Rp 23.500) (Close 17/06 Rp 22.900)
  • Bila UNTR berhasil mempertahankan daerah di atas price gap Rp 22.700 maka kenaikan masih dapat berlanjut hingga resistance berikutnya di 23.500 hingga membuat daily stochastic menembus neutral 50-line untuk proses perbaikan tren selanjutnya.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 22.900, Entry (2) Rp 22.700, Cut loss point: Rp 22.450
 
 
Dibuat oleh: 
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)