Deutsche Bank Maintained Overweight Indonesian Banks

Deutsche Bank AG maintained an "Overweight" rating for Chinese, South Korean, and Indonesian banks. Meanwhile, the brokerage raising Malaysian banks to "Overweight" from "Neutral", according to the report by analysts Tracy Yu and Sophia Lee.

Asian banks may underperform on "overheating concerns" with a "significant" increase in Asia's property prices and inflation, Deutsche Bank AG said.

UPDATE 1-Indonesia's Krakatau eyes coking coal supply deals

* Sees coking coal demand at 2.65 mln T by 2014

* In talks with Borneo, Marunda on long-term coal deal

* Considering option to buy stakes in Borneo, Marunda

* Sees 2011 steel output at 2.8 mln T vs 2 mln T in 2010

PT Krakatau Steel, Southeast Asia’s biggest steelmaker, is in talks with 

miners PT Borneo Lumbung Energi and Marunda Graha Mineral to help 

feed coking coal demand that it sees at 2.65 million a year by 2014. 

This would be the first use of coking coal by Krakatau, which currently 

uses natural gas to produce steel. Armed with $301 million from a listing 

on the Jakarta stock exchange last month, it said it would consider taking 

equity stakes to secure the coal supply.      

“We are discussing with the two companies about security 

of supply,” Fazwar Bujang, Krakatau’s president director, said on the 

sidelines of a mining conference in Bali.  

“One of the options...is to have a participating stake. If we have some 

portion of shares, we will have better security of supply.”

Krakatau expects to consume 2.65 million tonnes of coking coal by 2014 

to fuel steel mills for its own projects in Cilegon, West Java, as well as 

its $6 billion joint venture project with South Korea’s POSCO.

The company expects to produce 2.8 million tonnes of steel next year, 

including 2.2 million tonnes of hot-rolled coil, compare to an estimated 

2 million tonnes this year. 

Prices for coking coal could climb next year, amid growing demand for 

steel as economic growth accelerates and the relative rarity of metallurgical 

or coking coal, worrying steelmakers. Anglo-Australian miner BHP Billiton  

plans to increase prices of coking coal for Japanese steelmakers by about 

8 percent from the current quarter for the January-March period.       

SOURCING IRON LOCALLY           

Krakatau is also trying to source more iron ore locally and is in talks with 

the local government in western Aceh province about developing iron ore. 

Bujang said indications were that the mine deposit was of good quality 

and sufficient quality, without giving details. Krakatau expects to produce 

300,000 tonnes a year of sponge iron from 2011 from a project in southern  

Kalimantan together with state miner PT Aneka Tambang.

“It will the first iron material that we source locally,” Bujang said, adding 

that the sponge iron will be processed in southern Kalimantan and brought 

to Cilegon to be melted down.            

“We are also working on a long-term supply agreement with adjacent iron 

ore miners in south Kalimantan,” he said.      

Krakatau needs a total of 9.58 million tonnes of raw material in 2014 for 

steel processing, including iron ore and pellets. It currently depends on 

imported raw materials, mostly from Australia and Brazil, Bujang added. 

Source: Reuters

 

Indonesia Krakatau Steel in talks with Borneo Lumbung on coal supply

PT Krakatau Steel , Southeast Asia's biggest steelmaker, said on Thursday it is in talks with coking coal miner PT Borneo Lumbung Energi and Marunda Graha to help feed demand seen at 2.65 million of coal a year by 2014.


The firm is also considering buying equity stakes in Borneo Lumbung or Marunda to secure the supply.Source: Reuters

Tin to Beat Other Metals as Deficit Widens on Demand, StanChart's Zhu Says

Tin is likely to outperform other base metals as demand growth outpaces production, widening a deficit through next year, according to an analyst with Standard Chartered Bank. 

“Going forward, we expect global tin demand to continue to pick up from here,” Judy Zhu, a commodity analyst based in Shanghai, said at a seminar in Seoul. “We’d expect the tin market’s deficit to expand. We are bullish on tin and expect it to outperform the rest of base metals.” 

 

Mine output will continue to be limited, with the production outlook for Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia remaining negative in the next 12 months, she said. 

Stockpiles on the London Metal Exchange have fallen 42 percent this year, indicating a severe deficit, she said. 

Tin for three-month delivery advanced 1.6 percent to $26,000 a metric ton today, bringing the gain this year to 53 percent, already the best of the LME metals.Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia's Sarana aims for $368 mln via share sale-termsheet

Two shareholders of PT Sarana Menara Nusantara , an Indonesian telecom tower operator, aim to sell 277.1 million shares to raise up to $368 million via a private placement, according to a termsheet seen by Reuters on Thursday. Source: Reuters

Bank Internasional Rises as Parent Gets Extension on Stake Sale

PT Bank Internasional Indonesia rose to the highest level in more than 10 years after parent company Malayan Banking Bhd. obtained a six-month extension to sell a stake in the unit, delaying the sale of a large block of shares. 

Bank Internasional rose 25 percent to 1,010 at the 4 p.m. local-time close, the highest since April 2000. Maybank, as the parent company is known, is now required to sell the shares within six months to meet a government rule, Ahmad Fuad Rahmany, chairman of Indonesia’s capital market regulator, said today. The Malaysian bank was initially required to pare down its stake this year after its 2008 acquisition. 

“The question is at what price will the shares be sold,” said Danny Eugene, an analyst at PT Mega Capital Indonesia. “People are speculating Maybank will sell at a high price.” 

Maybank owns 95 percent of Bank Internasional after buying the majority stake from Temasek Holdings Pte and Kookmin Bank, which also triggered a takeover offer. Indonesia’s acquisition rules require Maybank to sell part of the stake back to the market if it ended up with more than 80 percent of the company. 

Shares of Bank Internasional more than tripled this year, compared with a 49 percent gain in the Jakarta Composite index.Source: Bloomberg

Hari Pertama, Asing Banyak Jual Saham Bumi Resources Mineral

Di hari pertama listingnya, investor asing melalui Macquarie Securities Indonesia memborong 85 ribu lot saham Bumi Resources Mineral (BRMS) di harga Rp 710 dan Rp 720, sehingga rata-ratanya menjadi Rp 718. Sama seperti Macquarie, sebagian kecil investor asing melalui UOB Kay Hian Securities juga membeli saham BRMS di harga Rp 710.

Selebihnya, aksi beli lebih banyak dilakukan investor lokal, seperti Trimegah Securities yang memborong 75.010 lot, Etrading Securities 73.625 lot, dan Danatama Makmur 288.149 lot.


Sebaliknya, aksi jual banyak dilakukan investor asing dengan dibantu oleh broker Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia sebanyak 187.958 lot, JP Morgan Securities Indonesia 134.107 lot, dan CIMB-GK Securities Indonesia 111.843 lot.

1	RX	MACQUARIE SECURITIES INDONESIA	279	85,000	718.24	1	700	690.00	84,300	85,700
2	LG	TRIMEGAH SECURITIES TBK.	586	75,010	722.62	56	6,557	716.10	68,453	81,567
3	YP	ETRADING SECURITIES	2193	73,625	730.59	376	8,161	711.33	65,464	81,786
4	II	DANATAMA MAKMUR	210	288,149	729.63	161	226,242	738.20	61,907	514,391
5	AI	UOB KAY HIAN SECURITIES	158	44,158	719.76	47	1,776	740.73	42,382	45,934

107	YU	CIMB-GK SECURITIES INDONESIA	128	30,156	731.48	997	111,843	712.48	-81,687	141,999
108	BK	J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA	164	20,000	720.00	915	134,107	719.53	-114,107	154,107
109	CS	CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA	-	-	-	1774	187,959	719.19	-187,959	187,959

Dalam 2 Hari, Mandiri Sekuritas Borong 94 Ribu Lot Saham BORN

Investor lokal mulai memburu saham Borneo Lumbung Energi (BORN) seperti dilakukan Mandiri Sekuritas yang memborong 46.406 lot. Sebelumnya, dalam dua hari terakhir, investor asing telah memborong saham ini di harga Rp 1.340-1.360.


Kemarin, Mandiri Sekuritas juga memborong 47.189 lot saham BORN. Sedangkan Credit Suisse kemarin membeli 19.238 lot. Hari ini, investor asing kembali memborong saham BORN melalui Credit Suisse, sebanyak 32.726 lot.


Selebihnya, aksi beli tetap dilakukan investor lokal, baik melalui BNP Paribas Peregrine, CLSA Indonesia, maupun Bahana Securities.
 

1	CC	MANDIRI SEKURITAS	357	46,406	1,372.53	22	3,696	1,366.16	42,710	50,102
2	CS	CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA	104	32,726	1,374.69	1	1,000	1,380.00	31,726	33,726
3	BW	BNP PARIBAS PEREGRINE	137	27,140	1,367.37	-	-	-	27,140	27,140
4	KZ	CLSA INDONESIA	105	13,000	1,365.38	-	-	-	13,000	13,000
5	DX	BAHANA SECURITIES	79	13,000	1,370.00	7	280	1,355.57	12,720	13,280
6	FS	AMCAPITAL INDONESIA	73	11,020	1,371.78	22	6,215	1,374.53	4,805	17,235
7	YJ	LAUTANDHANA SECURINDO	19	4,600	1,364.57	6	248	1,371.94	4,352	4,848
8	ML	MERRILL LYNCH INDONESIA	22	4,004	1,367.37	-	-	-	4,004	4,004
9	HD	HORTUS DANAVEST TBK.	29	8,000	1,370.00	3	4,000	1,380.00	4,000	12,000
10	DB	DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA	15	2,958	1,370.00	-	-	-	2,958	2,958

85	KK	PHILLIP SECURITIES INDONESIA	13	1,135	1,357.75	49	7,383	1,358.11	-6,248	8,518
86	GR	PANIN SEKURITAS TBK.	9	214	1,365.98	119	14,291	1,369.66	-14,077	14,505
87	YU	CIMB-GK SECURITIES INDONESIA	136	24,812	1,371.52	189	48,318	1,368.65	-23,506	73,130
88	ZP	KIM ENG SEKURITAS	6	44	1,367.27	134	58,519	1,373.35	-58,475	58,563

Lihat berita sebelumnya:

UBS Securities Borong 84 Ribu Lot Saham Borneo Lumbung Energy (Senin, 6 Desember 2010)

Mandiri Sekuritas Borong 47 Ribu Lot Saham BORN (Rabu, 8 Desember 2010)

Bumi Resources Minerals to start Africa iron ore output in Q4 2011

PT Bumi Resources Minerals , a unit of Indonesia's biggest coal miner PT Bumi Resources , said on Thursday it would start production at its iron ore mine in Mauritania from Q4 2011 with annual output of 600,000 tonnes. Source: Bloomberg

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 9 Desember 2010

Tiga sekuritas ternama memberikan ulasan soal kondisi perdagangan sepanjang Kamis, 9 Desember 2010, termasuk saham-saham pilihan yang patut dicermatin oleh para investor.

1. Kresna Graha Sekurindo

IHSG kembali menguji level tertinggi seiring kembalinya aliran modal asing di tengah minimnya katalis global. Hari ini, IHSG diperkirakan akan mencoba menguji rekor baru dengan bergerak di kisaran 3.705-3.800, dengan ADRO dan INTP sebagai saham pilihan.

2. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan Rabu (8/12), IHSG ditutup menguat 47 poin (1,28%) di kisaran 3.769. Asing melakukan net buy senilai Rp 204 milliar. Dari RSI dan stochastic terlihat IHSG masih uptrend dan berpeluang mencapai level tertinggi baru (new high), jika berhasil menembus 3.777. Level 3.777 dapat menjadi titik resistance 1 dari IHSG, sedangkan resistance 2 di kisaran 3.800. Hari ini, IHSG akan bergerak di kisaran 3.700–3.800, dengan saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain HRUM, ADRO, INTP, dan JSMR

3. Erdikha Sekuritas

IHSG ditutup menguat 47,65 poin menjadi 3.769,99 (1,28%). Penguatan indeks ini ditopang oleh penguatan saham-saham unggulan sektor pertambangan dan ragam industri. Secara teknikal, indeks masih mengindikasikan kenaikan, namun perlu diwaspadai aksi profit taking beberapa saham yang naik cukup tinggi. Hari ini, indeks bergerak pada kisaran 3.700-3.790. Rekomendasi ADRO, PGAS, dan SMGR.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 9 Desember 2010

Untuk perdagangan Kamis, 9 Desember 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihan yakni Astra International (ASII), Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI), Timah (TINS), dan Bank Bukopin (BBKP).

BUY: (ASII, ASRI,TINS, BBKP)

• Pasar mulai bergerak untuk antisipasi hasil laporan keuangan Q4 2010, sehingga bila terjadi koreksi sehat akibat keadaan jenuh beli rekomen akumulasi.

• IHSG close (08-12) 3.769.99 (+47.65/+1.28%) (Val.Rp.3.6T)

• Support:3.725-3.670-3.575, Resistance: 3.800-3.840-3.900

Stock picks:

1.    Astra International (ASII): (BUY) (Target: Rp 57.100) (close 08/12 Rp 54.550)

• Sentimen negatif dari placement di bawah harga penutupan pasar, potensi penurunan penjualan akibat skenario kenaikan BBM subsidi sebesar 40% kelihatannya sudah cukup tercermin dalam koreksi harga sebelumnya.

• Kontribusi dari anak usaha alat berat & CPO dapat menunjang kinerja laba di Q4 2010 & 2011F.

• Entry: (1) Rp 54.000, Entry (2) Rp 53.000, Cut loss point: Rp 51.500

 

2.   Alam Sutera (ASRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 315) (Close 08/12 Rp 290)

• Outlook pertumbuhan ekonomi dan suku bunga untuk 2011 yang kondusif dapat meningkatkan proyeksi Laba dan NAVS 2011 untuk emiten properti dengan profitability ratio (NPM/ROE 2011F) tertinggi di sektornya.

• Entry (1) Rp 285, (2) Rp 275, Cut loss point: Rp 265

3.   Tambang Timah (TINS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.975) (close 08/12 Rp 2.800)

• Global inflation & recovery industry otomotif, computer & electronic dapat mendorong kenaikan harga  komoditas timah untuk keperluan solder komponen di 2011, serta suplai yang ketat dapat mendorong analis untuk menaikan proyeksi laba & asumsi harga timah untuk 2011.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.750, Entry: (2) 2.650, Cut loss point: Rp 2.550

4.    Bank Bukopin (BBKP): (BUY) (Target: Rp 710) (Close 08/12 Rp 660)

• Beberapa katalis seperti potensi sinergi dari akuisisi oleh Jamsostek atau BRI yang meningkatkan funding, valuasi menarik dengan rasio PBV/ROE 2011F sebesar 11% & PER 2011F 11.7x (termurah di sektor pemain UKM) lambat laun akan mendorong akumulasi untuk melanjutkan uptrend kembali di BBKP.

• Entry: (1) Rp 650, Entry (2) Rp 630, Cut loss point: Rp 610

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)