Arqaam of Dubai to Help Indonesian Banks Find Gulf Investors

Arqaam Capital Ltd., a Dubai-based investment bank, wants to help other Indonesian lenders find investors in the Gulf Arab region after advising PT Bank Kesawan on the sale of a stake in itself to Qatar National Bank SAQ. (QNBK)

“There is active interest from a number” of mid-tier Indonesian banks to do deals such as the Qatar National Bank investment, Tamer Nazih Makary, Arqaam’s executive director, said in an interview in Dubai yesterday. About “four to five conventional banks, and two to three Islamic banks” may be looking to sell stakes to help raise money for growth, he said. 

Doha-based Qatar National Bank, the Persian Gulf country’s biggest lender by assets, took a 70 percent holding in Indonesia’s PT Bank Kesawan after becoming the standby buyer in its rights offer in January. Indonesia has more than 100 banks and the country’s central bank has prodded them to combine and boost capital after it spent 450 trillion rupiah ($37 billion) on bailouts following the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. 

AlBaraka Banking Group (BARKA), Bahrain’s biggest publicly traded Islamic lender, was also interested in acquiring a stake in PT Bank Kesawan, abandoning the plan amid the financial crisis, according to an official at Indonesia’s central bank. 

Other Gulf Arab banks that own shares in Indonesian lenders are Jeddah, Saudi Arabia-based Islamic Development and Kuwait’s Boubyan Bank KSC (BOUBYAN), which is partially owned by PT Bank Muamalat Indonesia. 

Arqaam was set up in 2007 and its businesses include an equities brokerage, equity derivatives and corporate finance. Its mandates include being the adviser to Jordan-based cement trading company CTI Group Inc.’s acquisition of PT Semen Batam, one of Indonesia’s largest cement producers.

Indonesia Buyout

Many Gulf Arab lenders have looked at buying big banks in Indonesia, where there was a difference between what the lenders were prepared to pay and the valuations, said Makary, 31. Qatar National Bank followed a different strategy by acquiring its stake through a rights offer at par, which doubled the lender’s capital, said Makary, who has worked at ABN Amro Bank NV in the U.S. and Egyptian investment bank EFG-Hermes Holdings SAE. 

“There are a lot of people hunting in Indonesia,” Makary said. Arqaam will look for buyers not just from the Middle East because, he said, “the Japanese are looking, the Indians are looking, the Koreans are looking. Source: Reuters

Indonesia to delay plans to limit fuel subsidies

Indonesia will delay its plans to limit fuel subsidies and has no plan to increase the price, chief economic minister Hatta Rajasa said on Monday.

"The government has decided to delay it," Rajasa said, without mentioning the timeline.
A government official said earlier the government had decided to delay scrapping fuel subsidies for private cars until July 1.

Indonesia, a founding member of OPEC but now an importer of fuel, heavily subsidises the pump price for consumers and the issue has become a political football at a time inflation is rising -- partly on the back of soaring oil prices. Source: Reuters

Indonesia's domestic motorcycle sales in Feb up 13.4 pct y/y

Indonesia's domestic motorcycle sales, an indicator of consumer demand in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, rose 13.4 percent in February versus the same month last year, industry data showed.


Domestic motorcycle sales volumes of 610,182 units were led by Honda , Yamaha and Suzuki , according to data from Indonesia's Motorcycle Industry (AISI).
Sales volume in February declined 8.2 percent compared to January. Source: Reuters

Para Group aims to build 20 new theme parks across Indonesia

Para Group, one of Indonesia's emerging conglomerates, plans to build 20 new theme parks across the archipelago by 2020, Chairul Tanjung, the CEO of the group, said on Monday.

Para had secured $450 million of syndicated loans from nine banks including Citibank and Standard Chartered Bank this month to refinance the group's existing debt as well as for its capital expenditure, Tanjung said. Source: Reuters

Indonesia Feb tin exports fall 11.6 pct yr/yr-ministry

Indonesia's refined tin exports fell nearly 12 percent in February from a year ago as rains hampered mining, trade ministry data showed on Monday, with the lower shipments from the world's top tin exporter likely to support prices. 

Three-month tin on the London Metal Exchange hit a record high above $32,000 a tonne in mid-February because of supply concerns in Indonesia. The price has since eased to below $30,000, but is still up around 10 percent so far this year. 

Indonesia shipped 6,181.42 tonnes in February this year, compared to 6,994.01 tonnes in the same month a year ago. "Rains still occur in Bangka-Belitung islands, hampering supply of tin ore," said an official at the trade ministry who declined to be named.

The State Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency has said that the main tin-producing Bangka-Belitung islands will not have drier weather until July. Source: Reuters

Indonesia still plans Samurai bond for 2nd half of 2011

Indonesia's finance ministry said on Monday that it still plans to issue a yen-denominated Samurai bond in the second half of 2011 despite Japan's devastating earthquake and tsunami of last week.

"Every plan to issue debt, including Samurai, is always evaluated every time because timings and market conditions determine prices," debt office chief Rahmat Waluyanto told Reuters.

"The Samurai is still planned for the second half and the government has lots of alternative financial instruments that can be issued in domestic or abroad with different currencies." Source: Reuters

Bumi sees coal price and demand rising after Japan quake

PT Bumi Resources , Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, sees coal prices and demand going up in the medium term after the Japan's devastating earthquake of Friday, Dileep Srivastava, a company director, said on Monday.

The need to reconstruct and the possible subtitution to coal power generation from nuclear plants could be the main catalysts, he said.
Japan is the number one buyer of Indonesian coal and Japanese customers accounted for 21 percent of Bumi's sales in 2011. Source: Reuters

Saudi's STC to increase stake in Indonesia's NTS

* Saudi Telecom to raise stake in Indonesia's NTS
* To provide loans of $81 mln, followed by $290 mln 

Saudi Telecom Co (STC) said on Saturday it planned to rase its share in its affiliate NTS in Indonesia to 80 percent, and lend it more than $370 million, as it readies to expand in the Indonesian market. 

Natrindo Telepon Selular (NTS Indonesia), now 51 percent owned by STC and 44 percent owned by Malaysia's Maxis Communications Bhd (MCB) , has set up a five-year plan to expand in Indonesia's telecom market, STC said in a bourse statement. 

"Saudi Telecom has shown interest in taking this opportunity to increase its shares in (NTS) due to the growth prospects in the Indonesian economy," STC said. 

"It agreed on Wednesday to give an initial loan of $81 million, followed by another loan of $290 million to be paid according to the firm's operational needs," the firm said. 

The deal will cancel all the loans made to NTS by Maxis Communications, amounting to almost $412 million, and increase STC's stake to 80.1 percent from 51 percent. 

Maxis Communications' share will fall to 14.9 percent from 44 percent, while the local partner will maintain a 5 percent stake.

The deal has yet to be approved by the Indonesian regulators. 

NTS began its mobile phone services in 2008 and has more than 10 million customers, covering 400 cities in Indonesia, the statement added.Source: Reuters

Rating BTN Naik Jadi idAA

PT Perusahaan Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) menaikkan peringkat PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BTN) dari idAA- menjadi idAA untuk perusahaan dan obligasi yang diterbitkan.

Wakil Direktur Utama Evi Firmansyah di Jakarta, Sabtu (12/3), mengatakan, peringkat Bank BTN untuk kategori perusahaan naik dari idAA- menjadi idAA. Demikian halnya dengan obligasi yang diterbitkan Bank BTN, masing-masing Obligasi XII tahun 2006, Obligasi XIII tahun 2009 dan Obligasi XIV tahun 2010 mendapatkan peringkat dari idAA- menjadi idAA, kata Evi.

Pefindo menyatakan peringkat idAA dan prospek yang stabil. Untuk peningkatan rating yang diberikan terhadap perusahaan, Pefindo melihat Bank BTN memiliki kemampuan untuk memperkuat bisnis dan kinerja serta profitabilitas perusahaan.

Obligasi yang diterbitkan Bank BTN juga mempunyai prospek yang stabil karena didukung perseroan yang memiliki kemampuan sangat kuat dibanding perusahaan di Indonesia lainnya untuk memenuhi kewajiban finansial atas efek hutang yang diterbitkan tersebut.

Kemampuan perseroan untuk memenuhi kewajiban finansial atas efek utang yang diterbitkan tidak terlalu terpengaruh oleh memburuknya perkembangan perekonomian, bisnis dan keuangan.

Evi menyambut positif hasil rating Pefindo tersebut. Pasca IPO Bank BTN memang telah melakukan banyak kegiatan menyangkut perbaikan baik dari sisi kualitas maupun kuantitas yang diharapkan dapat mendorong kinerja perseroan.   "Rating Pefindo ini adalah salah satu hasil dari apa yang sudah kami kerjakan tersebut," tegas Evi Firmansyah.

Lebih lanjut Evi menjelaskan bahwa kenaikan peringkat tersebut mencerminkan menguatnya posisi usaha perseroan dan membaiknya indikator profitabilitas. Dengan rating ini maka terbuka peluang bagi perseroan untuk mendapatkan dana murah lebih banyak sehingga diharapkan perseroan dapat meningkatkan rasio NIM (net interest margin).

Peningkatan rating terhadap perseroan tersebut menurut Evi Firmansyah juga dikarenakan oleh adanya dukungan yang sangat kuat dari Pemerintah selaku pemegang saham pengendali.
Di sisi lain posisi Bank BTN yang sangat kuat di sektor pembiayaan perumahan dengan modal perseroan yang sangat kuat juga mendukung meningkatnya peringkat tersebut.

Bank BTN merupakan pelopor pembiayaan perumahan. Perseroan saat ini menjadi pemimpin pasar dengan pangsa pasar 27% untuk seluruh KPR. Bank BTN posisinya juga masih sangat kuat karena masih menguasai pasar KPR subsidi dengan pangsa pasar 97%. Perseroan juga telah mempelopori sekuritisasi KPR di Indonesia dan telah sukses melakukan transaksi sekuritisasi yang pertama di Indonesia pada 2009.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 14 Maret 2011

Untuk perdagangann Senin, 14 Maret 2011, HD Capital merekomendasikan opsi beli terhadap saham Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Bank Mandiri (BMRI), Adaro Energy (ADRO), dan Astra International (ASII).

BUY: BBRI, BMRI, ADRO, ASII

* Koreksi yang terjadi akibat penurunan regional & tsunami di Jepang membuat beberepa big cap index movers, menarik kembali untuk akumulasi dalam koreksi sehat akibat keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) ini.

* Walaupun asing net sell tipis, namun rupiah tetap stabil di kisaran 8,780-8,850.

* IHSG close (11-03) 3.542.35 (-45.27/-1.27%) (Val.Rp.2.9T)

* Support: 3.530-3.450-3.350, Resistance: 3.580-3.650-3.750

Stock picks:

1. Bank BRI (BBRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 5.350) (close 11/03 Rp 5.150)

* Suku bunga tetap akan sangat menguntungkan emiten perbankan di sector mikro UKM yang diperdagangkan di valuasi PER 2011F 13x/PBV 2.78x ini dalam mencapai target pertumbuhan kredit di atas 23% tahun ini.

* Struktur sumber pendanaan yang murah membuat emiten ini tidak perlu melakukan rights issue atau issue obligasi sub-debt tambahan untuk mencari dana.

* Entry: (1) Rp 5.050, Entry (2) Rp 4.950, Cut loss point: Rp 4.800

2. Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.350)(Close 11/03 Rp 6.150)

* Beberapa katalis seperti tersedianya dana untuk ekspansi pasca rights issue, keuntungan dari IPO Garuda di harga Rp 750 (di atas perhitungan awal Rp 500), menguatnya rupiah yang memberikan efek positif ke utang corporate dalam US$ serta optimisme pertumbuhan kredit di atas 23% untuk 2011 dapat memicu BMRI untuk keluar dari pola sideways dan resume uptrend kembali.

* Entry: (1) Rp 6.050, Entry (2) 5.950, Cut loss point: Rp 5.850

3. ADRO Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.450) (Close 11/03 Rp 2.325)

* Musim kemarau diperkirakan mulai lebih awal yaitu bulan Mei, sehingga potensi penurunan produksi akibat curah hujan seperti tahun lalu tidak akan terulang.

* Secara technical menarik dilirik pada pullback ke price gap di Rp 2.300-2.250.

* Entry: (1) Rp 2.300, Entry: (2) Rp 2.250, Cut loss point: Rp 2.175

4. Astra International (ASII): (BUY) (Target: Rp 55.200) (Close 11/03 Rp 54.400)

* Beberapa katalis positif seperti naiknya profit di 2010 sebesar 43%, tren penjualan mobil yang masih akan ditopang oleh bunga tetap dan penundaan pembatasan subsidi BBM dividen Rp 1.130/saham menjadi alasan untuk melakukan buy on weakness dalam koreksi akibat keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) pasca kenaikan yang tajam selama sepekan lebih.

* Entry: (1) Rp 53.400, Entry (2) Rp 52.200, Cut loss point: Rp 51.500

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)