CIMB: Harga Saham BNI Outperform

CIMB-GK Securities menaikkan status saham PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) dari "netral" menjadi "outperform". 

Analis CIMB-GK Securities Mulya Chandra mengatakan, target harga saham BNI dalam 12 bulan adalah Rp 4.000/saham.

Wheat Soars to 23-Month High as Russia Bans Exports; Rice Gains

Wheat extended a rally to the highest price in almost two years on concern that other nations may follow Russia’s export ban, and may reach $10 a bushel, a price not seen since the global food crisis in 2008. 

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that Kazakhstan and Belarus should also suspend shipments as Russia’s ban was announced yesterday from Aug. 15 to the yearend. 

“It’s got $10 written all over it,” said Peter McGuire, managing director at CWA Global Markets Pty, who correctly forecast Aug. 3 the surge to $8.50. Wheat last traded at $10 in March 2008, and a gain to that price would be a 23 percent advance from yesterday’s close. 

Russia’s ban may benefit rival producers, including the U.S., the largest exporter, Australia and Argentina, according to Rabobank Group. 

Wheat prices have doubled in less than two months as drought slashed the harvest in Russia, the third- largest grower, and rains cut Canadian output. The surge may herald a new food crisis as corn and other staples jump, warned a trade group from Indonesia, Asia’s top wheat buyer. 

“We believe that the rally in wheat prices is overdone, but would not short wheat,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Hussein Allidina said in a note to investors, referring to making bets that prices may drop. Other wheat-producing countries may opt to limit exports, potentially boosting prices, even though global wheat stockpiles are ample, they wrote. 

Wheat for December rose as much as 6.5 percent to $8.68 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, taking gains for that contract to 25 percent this week. The best-performing commodity this year on the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index, ahead of coffee and nickel, traded at $8.5875 a bushel at 3:34 p.m. in Singapore.

‘Domino Reaction’

“There will be a domino reaction and we expect corn demand will rise, pushing prices higher,” Franciscus Welirang, chairman of the Flour Mills Association in Indonesia, said by phone.

“It’s the end of cheap wheat.” Corn futures gained as much as 1.1 percent to $4.2275 a bushel today, taking gains over the past year to 24 percent. 

Wheat has rallied as a heat wave in Russia, dry weather in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and the European Union, and flooding in Canada hurt crops. 

Russia’s drought is also threatening sowing plans for winter grain, the national weather center has said. 

Wheat reached a record $13.495 in February 2008, part of a surge in prices that sparked food riots from Haiti to Egypt. Still, concern that lower-than-expected wheat output may contribute to a food crisis is “unwarranted at this stage,” the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said on Aug. 4. 

‘The World Listens’

“When Putin speaks, the world listens,” said McGuire at commodity trader CWA, referring to the possibility other nations may also curb shipments. The biggest gainers would be U.S. farmers because they have the supply to meet demand in the global market, he said. “They’ll all be driving Lamborghinis.” 

Japan, Asia’s second-largest wheat buyer after Indonesia, may look for increased shipments from the U.S., said Charlie Utsunomiya, director at the Tokyo office of U.S. Wheat Associates. Japan buys Russian wheat and barley for animal feed. 

The Russian ban will “rattle the markets for the next several months” and boost demand for stockpiles from the U.S., Bob Young, the chief economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, said yesterday from Washington.

Halting Russia’s wheat shipments would be “appropriate” to contain domestic prices that jumped 19 percent last week, Putin said. The country shipped an estimated 17.5 million metric tons of wheat in the year to June 30, accounting for 14 percent of global trade, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

Kazakhstan, Russia’s partner in a customs union, exported 7.5 million tons in the year ended June 30, while Belarus, another partner, shipped 400,000 tons, according to the USDA. Ukraine accounted for 9.2 million tons in the same year, it said.

Rival Shippers

Wheat buyers will turn to the U.S., Australia and Argentina for supplies as Black Sea region output slumps, Rabobank’s London-based analysts Luke Chandler and Doug Whitehead wrote in a report. Global stockpiles remained sufficient to offset recent production downgrades, Rabobank said. 

World wheat stockpiles may fall 2.5 percent to 192 million tons by June as the dry weather hurts the outlook for crops in Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and the European Union, the International Grains Council said on July 29, reversing a forecast for higher inventories.

Exporters from the Black Sea, including Ukraine, may have no choice but to halt shipments unless the region gets enough rain, CWA’s McGuire said. “If it gets hotter for longer, then it’s going to destroy the crop,” he said.

Putin told a government meeting in Moscow yesterday that Russia has “sufficient reserves” of grain, “but we must prevent domestic prices from rising, preserve cattle herds and build up reserves.” The ban will also apply to barley, rye, corn and flour. Source: Bloomberg

Wheat's Advance Revives Food Crisis Concern

The world may face another food crisis if the surge in wheat sparked by Russia’s export ban drives the prices of other staples higher, according to an executive from Indonesia, Asia’s largest buyer of the grain. 

“There will be a domino reaction and we expect corn demand will rise, pushing prices higher, and feed industries will buy more corn and soybeans,” Franciscus Welirang, chairman of the Flour Mills Association in Indonesia, said in an interview today. “It’s the end of cheap wheat.” 

Russia’s ban, announced yesterday as supplies shrink in a heat wave, has helped wheat to double in less than two months and sent the grain to the highest price since August 2008. Wheat touched a record that year, along with rice, pushing up food costs and triggering riots in poorer states including Egypt. 

Another global food crisis “is what we worry about in the fourth quarter or first quarter of next year,” Welirang said by phone. Corn and wheat can be used interchangeably in making livestock feed. 

The Food and Agriculture Organization said on Aug. 4. - before Russia’s ban on wheat exports -- that concern that lower- than-expected wheat output may contribute to a food crisis is “unwarranted at this stage.” The United Nations agency said global wheat stockpiles were higher than in 2008. 

Wheat’s Jump

Wheat for December delivery rose as much as 6.5 percent to $8.68 a bushel in Chicago, taking gains for that contract to 25 percent this week. The best-performing commodity this year on the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index, ahead of coffee and nickel, traded at $8.11 a bushel at 5:20 p.m. in Singapore, 0.5 percent weaker. Corn traded at 4.1325 a bushel, 1.1 percent lower. 

Stock in PT Indofood Sukses Makmur, Indonesia’s biggest maker of instant noodles, fell as much as 5.2 percent to 4,100 rupiah in Jakarta today as wheat surged, raising production costs for the company. Welirang is also a director at Indofood, which ended at 4,150 rupiah, the lowest close since June 30. 

The ban on exports from Russia and possibly from other parts of the former Soviet Union will dry up the supply of cheap flour in Indonesia, Welirang said. Southeast’s Asia’s largest economy is the biggest buyer of wheat, flour and products in Asia, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. 

Buyers in Indonesia may have to turn to suppliers from the U.S., Canada and Australia, which offer the grain at higher prices than exporters from the former Soviet Union, Welirang said. 

The wheat exported by Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan into Indonesia typically has a lower protein content than supplies from other countries, making it cheaper, he said. 

Russia, the world’s third-largest wheat grower last year, will suspend wheat shipments from Aug. 15 to yearend, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said yesterday. Kazakhstan and Belarus should also suspend exports, Putin said. 

Wheat has rallied as a heat wave in Russia, dry weather in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and the European Union, and flooding in Canada hurt crops. Russia’s drought is also threatening sowing plans for winter grain, the national weather center has said. 

Demand for flour in Indonesia fell as much as 15 percent in 2008 as wheat touched an all-time high, Welirang said, without citing the volume. This time, higher prices of noodles and pasta may again curb the nation’s demand as millers pass on increased costs, he said. Source: Bloomberg

CLSA Net Buying 9 Ribu Lot Saham BJBR

CLSA Indonesia membukukan net buying saham PT Bank Jabar Banten Tbk (BJBR) yakni 9.006 lot setelah membeli 15.290 lot (Rp 1.249) dan menjual 6.284 (Rp 1.220).

Phillip Securities juga membukukan net buying 5.500 lot setelah membeli 7.722 lot (Rp 1.290) dan menjual 2.222 lot (Rp 1.289).

CIMB-GK Securities mulai membeli kembali saham ini, sebanyak 6.450 (Rp 1.280) dan hanya menjual 1.430 (Rp 1.273).

Satu-satunya broker penjual terbanyak adalah JP Morgan Securities, yakni sebanyak 22.850 lot di harga Rp 1.275. 

Saham BJBR turun Rp 20 dan ditutup di harga rp 1.280.

3 Broker Borong Saham ANTM

Tiga broker bersama-sama memburu saham PT Aneka Tambang Tbk sehingga harganya naik Rp 100 menjadi Rp 2.200. Pembeli terbanyak dilakukan oleh CLSA Indonesia, yakni 22.000 lot di harga Rp 2.152 tanpa menjual sama sekali.

BNP Paribas Peregrine juga membeli tanpa menjual, sebanyak 15.000 lot di harga Rp 2.200. Panca Global Securities juga memborong 10.001 lot di harga Rp 2.175 dengan menjual 210 lot saja.

Sama seperti ADRO, Aneka Tambang juga belum mengumumkan kinerja laporan keuangannya.

Trimegah dan Credit Suisse Borong Saham ADRO

Trimegah Securities dan Credit Suisse saling kerja sama memborong saham PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO). Trimegah membeli 33.810 lot saham ADRO yang kebanyakan adalah investor asing, di harga rata-rata Rp 2.073. Namun, Trimegah masih menjual 6.826 lot saham ADRO di harga Rp 2.099. 

Harga ADRO akhirnya ditutup naik Rp 75 menjadi Rp 2.175. 

Credit Suisse memborong 25.841 lot di harga Rp 2.086 dengan hanya menjual 72 lot. CIMB-GK Securities juga membukukan net selling 13.209 lot setelah membeli 16.962 lot di harga Rp 2.080 dan menjual 3.753 lot di harga Rp 2.081.

Sedangkan Macquarie Securities tidak menjual sama sekali saham ADRO namun justru memborong 10.693 lot di harga Rp 2.095. 

Satu-satunya broker penjual terbanyak adalah UBS Securities dengan menjual 32.024 lot di harga Rp 2.096 dan hanya membeli 500 lot.

Asing Ramai-Ramai Jual INDF

Asing tampak menjual besar-besaran saham PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) sepanjang perdagangan Jumat ini. Broker penjual terbanyak adalah Macquarie Securities dengan melepas 27.786 lot saham INDF di harga rata-rata Rp 4.196 tanpa menjual sama sekali.

Urutan berikutnya adalah CLSA Indonesia sebanyak 20.983 lot di harga Rp 4.237 dan hanya membeli 806 lot. Mandiri Sekuritas turut melepas 21.522 lot di harga Rp 4.155 namun masih membeli 4.697 lot INDF di harga Rp 4.190 sehingga membukukan net selling 16.825 lot.

BNP Paribas Peregrine menjual 10.795 lot di harga Rp 4.178 dan hanya membeli 42 lot saja. Nusadana Capital ikutan menjual 9.402 lot saham INDF di harga Rp 4.140 namun masih membeli sebanyak 4.208lot di harga Rp 4.201, sehingga membukukan net selling 5.194 lot.

Deutsche Securities tercatat menjual 3.672 lot INDF di harga Rp 4.192 dan hanya membeli 179 lot. Sama seperti Deutsche, JP Morgan juga menjual 4.542 lot di harga Rp 4.154 dan hanya membeli 1.065 lot di harga Rp 4.145. 


Akibat penjualan yang masif tanpa diimbangi pembelian, harga saham INDF turun Rp 175 menjadi Rp 4.150. Cermatin saham ini karena laporan keuangannya akan keluar akhir bulan ini. Biasanya investor asing akan memburu saham ini menjelang pengumuman kinerja.

Asing Terus Buru Saham TLKM

Investor asing terus memburu saham PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) pada perdagangan akhir pekan ini. Pembelian dilakukan melalui broker asing. Mandiri Sekuritas memborong 14.449 lot saham TLKM di harga rata-rata Rp 8333 dengan hanya menjual 1.094 lot di harga Rp 8.300.


DDanareksa Sekuritas juga membeli 7.247 lot TLKM (harga Rp 8.308) dan hanya menjual 545 lot di harga Rp 8.339.


Akumulasi saham TLKM juga dilakukan oleh Deutsche Securities dengan membeli 6.549 lot fi harga Rp 8.314 dan hanya menjual 161 lot.


Satu-satunya broker asing yang tercatat menjual paling banyak adalah CLSA Indonesia, yakni sebanyak 16.691 lot di harga Rp 8.297 dan membeli 2.211 lot di harga Rp 8.174.


Saham TLKM naik Rp 200 ke Rp 8.400.

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 6/8

Rekomendasi dari beberapa sekuritas untuk kondisi bursa hari ini, Jumat 6 Agustus 2010.

 

1. Trimegah Securities

Sebagian besar saham unggulan yang berhasil rebound dan diikuti oleh sentimen positif di pasar menjadi pendorong kenaikan IHSG pada Kamis (5/8). IHSG berpeluang meneruskan pergerakan positifnya karena kemarin ditutup di atas MA-20 dan pergerakan stochastic yang cenderung membentuk golden cross. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.025-3.066. Saham unggulan BMRI dan TLKM.

2. e-Trading Securities

IHSG mengalami rebound yang luar biasa ditutup menguat 61 poin (2,06%) dengan pendorong utama saham Grup Astra, bangking, dan plantation kemarin. Asing juga net buy sebesar Rp 200 miliar. Ada kemungkinan hari ini indeks melanjutkan penguatannya jika data yang dikeluarkan pemerintah AS membaik. RSI terlihat mulai rebound pada saat mendekati garis 50% dan stochastic juga membentuk golden cross. 

Hari ini, IHSG berada dalam kisaran 3.000–3.060. Saham yang layak diperhatikan, antara lain BMRI, BBRI, GZCO, ASII, dan LSIP.

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Kemarin, IHSG berlanjut rebound dengan menembus angka psikologis 3.000 dan ditutup plus 62 poin ke level 3.045. Penguatannya ditopang oleh saham sektor perkebunan, keuangan, manufaktur, dan perdagangan, ketika indikator stochastic oscillator ada di area oversold, indeks bursa regional menguat, serta meredanya kekhawatiran wacana redenominasi rupiah. IHSG diperkirakan mixedBuy  dengan kecendrungan menguat pada kisaran 3.015-3.062. Rekomendasi AALI, BLTA, TINS, dan UNSP

4. Erdikha Sekuritas

IHSG ditutup menguat 61,69 poin (2,07%) menjadi 3.044,94 kemarin. Menguatnya seluruh saham sektor setelah mendapat sentimen positif dari penguatan bursa global membawa IHSG kembali bergerak di atas level 3.000. Secara teknikal, indeks masih berpeluang melanjutkan penguatannya karena indikator RSI dan stochastic oscilator masih di bawah zona overbought. IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran 3.020-3.096. Kami merekomendasi saham SMGR dan TINS.

Rekomendasi HD Capital Jumat (6/8)

Hari ini, Jumat 5 Agustus 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan BUY untuk empat saham: (DILD, LSIP, ASII, TLKM), dengan beberapa catatan:

• Data GDP Indonesia 1H 2010 di atas expektasi pasar (6.2% versus 6.0%) dapat menopang kenaikan lebih lanjut dan mengurangi risiko untuk ada lonjakan suku bunga hingga akhir tahun.

• IHSG close (05-08) 3.044.941(+61.694/+2.07%) (Val.Rp.4T) 

• Support: 3.010-2.970-2.880, Resistance: 3.070-3.100-3.150

 

Stock picks:

 

1.    London Sumatra (LSIP): (BUY) (Target: Rp  9.900) (close 05/08 Rp 9.600)

• Harga CPO (naik 5-6% sejak 2 hari terakhir) mulai mendiskon kemungkinan harga akan naik di 2H 2010 (semester 2) akibat efek curah hujan berlebihan (La Nina) yang membuat produksi terganggu.

• Konsumen global diperkirakan lebih tergantung kepada minyak sawit sehingga menunjukkan potensi untuk harga CPO terus naik hingga 2011.

• Entry: (1) Rp 9.500, Entry (2) Rp 9.300, cut-loss point: Rp 9.050

 

2.    Dharmala Intiland (DILD) (BUY): (Target: Rp 680) (Close 05/08 Rp 610)

• Selain sektor perbankan, properti juga diuntungkan dari BI rate tetap (6.5%) & GDP 1H (6.2%) (di atas expektasi).

• Rekomen DILD dengan operating profit margin tertinggi (OPM09) setelah BSDE, namun dengan valuasi PBV09 lebh murah (1.85x versus 3.85x untuk BSDE) 

• Entry (1) Rp.610, (2) Rp.580, Cut loss point: Rp.550

 

3.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 50.550) (Close 05/08 Rp 48.750)

• Kontribusi dari unit otomotif (mobil & motor) di-proyeksikan masih akan menambah pertumbuhan laba persero hingga 2-3% kedepan (2011-2012) 

• Entry: (1) Rp 48.000, Entry: (2) 46.700, Cut loss point: Rp 45.500

4.   Telekomunikasi (TLKM): (BUY) (Target: Rp  8.450) (close 05/08 Rp 8.200)

• Harga yang cukup terdiskon, optimism bahwa bisnis data/internet dapat tumbuh di 2011, serta rencana spin off beberapa menara menjadi katalis positif untuk akumulasi.

• Entry: (1) Rp 8.150, Exit (2) Rp 8.000, Cut-loss point: Rp 7.850

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)