Metal Price Update

Metal Prices:

-- Copper rose $118, or 1.4 percent, to $8,480 a metric ton on
the London Metal Exchange at 7:58 a.m. local time. Relative
Strength Index 73.7.
-- Aluminum gained 1 percent to $2,442 a ton. RSI 69.2.
-- Zinc rose 0.4 percent to $2,420 a ton. RSI 70.
-- Lead gained 0.6 percent to $2,448.5 a ton. RSI 68.8.
-- Nickel rose 0.9 percent to $24,630 a ton. RSI 64.6.
-- Tin advanced 0.8 percent to $27,000 a ton. RSI 77.9.

Other markets:      Last           % Change   % YTD
U.S. Dollar Index   76.515          -0.7       -1.7
Crude oil           $83.85           1.0        5.7
Gold                $1,380.10        0.6       25.8
MSCI World Index    1,229.79         0.6        5.3

Source: Bloomberg

Asian tyre grade rubber traded at record on supply squeeze

Tyre grade rubber was sold at record prices near $4 a kg as tight supply in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia prompted consumers to scramble for the commodity, dealers said on Thursday.

Japan's largest tyre maker, Bridgestone Corp, bought some quantity of Thai RSS3 at $3.95 for nearby shipment late on Wednesday, surpassing a record traded price of $3.50 in April, when offers for the Thai grade rose as high as $4.10. Source: Reuters

Indonesia's Sept tin exports fall 11 pct y/y

Indonesia's refined tin exports fell 11 percent to 6,904.37 tonnes in September, from 7,755.30 tonnes in the same month a year ago, trade data showed on Wednesday.

The trade ministry data showed tin exports from January to September at 67,011.40 tonnes.
Declining production this year from Indonesia, the world's top exporter of the metal, has been driving prices, with London tin prices CMSN3 hitting a record high on Wednesday. Source: Reuters

Copper and Tins Hit New Rekor

* Tin ended up $275 at $26,775 a tonne, after hitting a record $27,100
 
Copper prices rallied on Wednesday to a fresh 27-month peak as prospects for renewed liquidity measures in the United States and the bearish impact it has had on the US dollar continued to drive momentum in the broader metals complex.

"I would say this has almost everything to do with the US dollar," said Jeff Pritchard, a broker and analyst with Altavest Worldwide Trading in Mission Viejo, California.

"With more quantitative easing inevitable, the dollar is just going to slowly continue to erode, and that's going to be supportive for the metals."

London Metal Exchange tin soared to a fresh record and lead jumped to its most expensive price since January.

Copper for December delivery on the COMEX metals division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.10 cents to settle at $3.8205 per lb, the highest level on a closing basis for a third-position futures contract since July 7, 2008.

LME copper rallied to $8,430 a tonne, its loftiest price since July 2008, before ending up $12 at $8,362.

Weakness in the US dollar against other major currencies gathered pace after the release this week of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's Sept. 21 policy meeting, which helped whet investor appetite for dollar-denominated commodities.

"Right now the trend in the metals is up and, with what the Fed is doing, I don't see how this trend can't be up," Altavest's Pritchard said.

A weaker dollar lowers the price of dollar-priced assets for holders of other currencies.
The effect of earnings season reports on investor sentiment was also expected to influence metals' direction in the near term.

US bank JPMorgan Chase & Co, the first of the banks to report third-quarter earnings, said its quarterly profit jumped, helped by lower loan losses in its retail and credit card units.
"With Q3 reporting season starting up in the US, the performance of the US equity markets will also be an increasingly important factor in terms of dictating short term price direction over the coming weeks," analyst Leon Westgate of Standard Bank said in a note.

Rio Tinto is to release its third-quarter production report on Thursday and that is expected to show strong iron ore output.

Copper is benefiting from a tightening market as stocks in LME warehouses have tumbled more than 30 per cent since the middle of February.

The latest data showed LME stocks down 475 tonnes at 371,275 tonnes, having fallen from seven-year highs above 555,000 tonnes in late February.

Tin ended up $275 at $26,775 a tonne, after hitting a record $27,100. The metal has hit a succession of record highs, underpinned by tight supply from top exporter Indonesia
Production there is set to fall in coming months as the rainy season will flood onshore mines and lash offshore miners with high waves.

Indonesia's refined tin exports fell 11 per cent to 6,904.37 tonnes in September, from 7,755.30 tonnes in the same month a year ago, trade data showed on Wednesday.
Lead rose $60 to close at $2,435 a tonne, after hitting its highest level since January at $2,440.25 a tonne.

Aluminum slipped $20 to $2,417 a tonne, having earlier hit its highest level since April at $2,447.

Zinc also rose to its highest level since April at $2,419 a tonne, before ending $40 higher at $2,410. Nickel rose $350 to finish at $24,400 a tonne. Source: The Bull

Nobble Group dan Glencore Incar Berau Coal

Noble Group Ltd, pemasok komoditas global yang berbasis di Hong Kong, dikabarkan tengah mempersiapkan diri untuk akuisisi 10-20% saham PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU). Nilai pembelian saham diperkirakan mencapai US$ 400 juta atau sekitar Rp 3,6 triliun.

"Selain Noble, investor lain yang menginginkan Berau Coal adalah Glencore," bisik salah seorang bankir investasi, semalam.

      

Menurut dia, baik Noble maupun Glencore akan masuk ke Berau Coal melalui induknya, yakni Bukit Mutiara. "Skenarionya konversi utang menjadi saham Bukit Mutiara," urai dia.

Noble merupakan perusahaan yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Singapura (SGX). Sekitar 15% saham perseroan dimiliki China Investment Corporation (CIC), perusahaan milik Pemerintah Tiongkok yang juga pernah memberikan pinjaman kepada PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) senilai US$ 1,9 miliar.

Sumber tersebut juga mengatakan, JP Morgan telah ditunjuk memfasilitasi transaksi penjualan tersebut di harga Rp 520. Pada perdagangan kemarin, saham perseroan berkode BRAU ditutup menguat Rp 5 (1%) ke posisi Rp 480. Volume perdagangan BRAU mencapai 71 juta saham dengan frekuensi 792 kali. Nilai transaksinya mencapai Rp 33,75 miliar.

Lihat berita juga:

Berau Coal Energy to Sell Up to 20 pct Stake-Sources

 

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 14 Oktober 2010

Untuk Kamis, 14 Oktober 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihan dengan opsi beli, yakni Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM), Bukit Sentul (BKSL), Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF), dan Bumi Resources (BUMI).

BUY: (TLKM, BKSL, INDF, BUMI)

• Ekspektasi positif kinerja laporan keeuangan emiten untuk Q3 2010 serta berbagai data ekonomi seperti inflasi & ekspor impor, GDP yang akan dirilis akhir bulan mulai di price in oleh pasar sehingga kenaikan di atas 3.600 masih bisa terjadi.

• IHSG close (13-10) 3.589.158 (+42.307/+1.23%) (Val.Rp.4.3T) 

• Support: 3.570-3.540-3.495, Resistance: 3.640-3.660-3.700

 

Stock picks:

 

1.    Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM): (BUY) (Target: Rp 9.400) (close 13/10 Rp 9.100)

• Kinerja keuangan Q3 2010 yang diperkirakan positif didukung oleh kontribusi dari pertumbuhan pelanggan unit Telkomsel dapat menahan penurunan lebih lanjut sehingga rekomen akumulasi big cap index mover ini. 

• Entry: (1) Rp 9.050, Exit (2) Rp 8.900, Cut loss point: Rp 8.750 

 

2.   Bukit Sentul (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 135) (Close 13/10 Rp 122)

• Emiten properti ini masih sangat terdiskon dari perusahaan lainnya seperti ASRI, sehingga potensi terjadinya adjustment harga ke atas mungkin saja terjadi apalagi spekulasi pemindahan ibukota ke Jonggol belum selesai.

• Entry (1) Rp 122, (2) Rp 199, Cut loss point: Rp 117 

 

3.   Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp 5.350) (Close 13/10 Rp 5.100)

• Meredanya isu larangan mie-instan di Taiwan serta ekspektasi positif terhadap kinerja laporan keuangan Q3 2010 yang tertolong oleh penguatan rupiah dapat menarik kembali minta investor untuk mempertahankan INDF di atas support psikologis Rp 4.850 sehingga retracement rally uptrend channel dapat terjadi.

• Entry: (1) Rp 5.000, Entry: (2) 4.800, Cut-loss point: Rp 4.600

 

4.   Bumi Resources (BUMI) (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.550) (close 13/10 Rp 2.350)

• Sentimen positif terhadap ekspektasi laporan keuangan Q3 2010, IPO Bumi mineral & hasil rights issue, membuat para analis optimistis menaikkan proyeksi EPS 2011F karena faktor rasio utang ke ekuitas (DER) yang dapat terpangkas.

• Entry: (1)  Rp 2.325, Entry (2) Rp 2.250, Cut-loss point: Rp 2.175

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 14 Oktober 2010

Untuk perdagangan hari ini, Kamis 14 Oktober 2010, tiga sekuritas ternama memberikan ulasan soal kondisi bursa yang akan terjadi, termasuk saham-saham yang patut dicermati para investor. Berikut ulasan detailnya.

1. Kresna Securities

Pada Rabu (14/10), aliran dana asing yang masuk kembali mendorong IHSG mendekati level tertinggi yang pernah dicapainya. Indeks diperkirakan  menguji kembali level tertingginya dan bergerak di kisaran 3.580-3.650 hari ini. Saham  pilihan AALI dan SMCB.

2. Trimegah Securities

IHSG berhasil rebound dan bergerak di teritori positif dari awal sesi, serta membentuk white marubozu kemarin. IHSG menguji level 223,6% fibonacci projection, sebagai resistance kuatnya. Sementara itu, golden cross pada fast moving oscillator juga dapat menjadi katalis rally lanjutan. IHSG hari ini diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran 3.586-3.633. Saham pilihan BMRI, JSMR, dan UNTR.

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani

IHSG secara mengejutkan naik signifikan dan ditutup plus 64,73 poin pada rekor 3.611,98 Rabu lalu,  ditopang penguatan saham semua sektor, terutama komoditas dan barang konsumsi. Kenaikan IHSG seiring penguatan indeks bursa global dan rasa optimistis atas upaya pelonggaran moneter oleh The Fed. Indeks diperkirakan berfluktuasi dengan potensi menguat dan profit taking di kisaran 3.586-3.630. Buy ADRO, BBNI, BNBR, DEWA, dan WIKA.