Indonesia’s Trading Permit Delays Disrupt Exports of Resources

The Indonesian government’s delay in issuing trading permits has disrupted commodity exports from the country including coal, officials said. 

The new Indonesian mining law requires traders to convert their old permits to the mining business license issued by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry before they are allowed to ship products overseas, said Djunaedi, head of mining exports at the Trade Ministry. 

“The energy ministry halted the process for giving out the license while waiting for the ministerial decree to be issued,” Djunaedi, who uses one name, said in an interview in Jakarta today. The requirement is applied to exports of other mining products such as bauxite and gold, he said, adding that producers are still allowed to export. 

The mining law was imposed in 2009 with the aim of controlling minerals and coal mining, as well as limit environmental damage in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. Witoro Soelarno, secretary to the director general of coal and minerals, didn’t answer two calls to his mobile phone seeking comment. 

Hundreds of coal traders were forced to halt shipments pending the approval of licenses, said Bob Kamandanu, head of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association. 

“The energy minister has ordered the director general of coal to process all applications,” Kamandanu said by phone from Jakarta. Exports will return to normal when traders receive licenses, he said. 

Refined tin exports are exempted from the new regulation as only registered producers and exporters at the trade ministry are allowed to ship the metal, Djunaedi said. Indonesia, the world’s largest shipper of the metal used for soldering and packaging, has 34 registered exporters. Source: Bloomberg

UPDATE 1-Indonesian tin output seen down; Bangka rains easing -sources

* Bangka region sees less rain; tin prices at record high
* Indonesia needs investment in expensive dredgers
* Indonesian tin output seen 10 pct lower in 2011 (Adds quotes, details)

Heavy rains are easing in Indonesia's main producing area of Bangka island, although exports in January are still expected to be as much as 35 percent lower than last month, industry sources said on Wednesday.

Analysts see little respite, with a lack of investment in Indonesia's tin industry expected to push already soaring prices to fresh records in 2011, as demand rises for the metal, used in electronics, plating and lead-free solders.

Benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange hit a record high at $28,698 a tonne on Wednesday, as persistent worries about supplies from Indonesia boosted prices.

Heavy rains and floods caused by the La Nina weather phenomenon have hit tin miners in Indonesia in recent months, squeezing supply from the world's top exporter of the metal.
Indonesia's tin exports in January are seen at a maximum of 5,000 tonnes compared with 7,722 tonnes in December, the Indonesian Tin Industry Association said.

"Exports would be around 5,000 tonnes maximum in January," said Rudi Irawan, vice chairman at the association and director at independent smelter CV Stania Prima. "Rains have eased but we still have high waves because of the monsoon."

He added, "We have depleting onshore reserves and high waves offshore. There are only several smelters now fully-operational, mostly because either they have strong financing or have its own mines."




DRY SEASON TO START
Indonesia's weather agency forecast this month that the dry season is likely to start in most areas only in July.

The heavy rains now appear to be easing.

"We have changed our mining plan so weather is not an issue any more," said Darmansyah, a spokesman at PT Koba Tin in Bangka island. "Tin shipments have been smooth."
Bangka island, off Sumatra's east coast, is the world's largest tin-producing area.

He added that Koba Tin's production would be higher this year than the figure of around 5,000 tonnes last year, but gave no details.
"There is clearly an issue with supply going forward," said a Singapore-based analyst. "It is a bit tighter now because of the weather -- it has been raining since November.
"Normally when this clears up, which should be next month, you will see more material coming out of Indonesia."


INVESTMENT NEEDED
Production in Indonesia has also been hit by a police crackdown on illegal mining, stricter environmental and export rules, and the depletion of easily mined onshore reserves.


Indonesia, the world's second-largest producer after China, has also struggled to lure foreign investment into mining, compounded by some politicians taking a nationalist line on resource exploitation and also because of uncertainty over regulations tied to a new mining law passed in 2008.

"Large investments are needed for Indonesia to sustain the production that they've had over the last couple of years," the analyst said. "A lot more has to come from off-shore -- this is more expensive. You are looking at dredgers that go a lot deeper.

"If you look at the amount of investment needed, and the intrinsic value of the metal, then it will be a bit too risky for the Rio Tintos of this world."
Indonesia supplies nearly 30 percent of the world's tin consumption, and most of it comes from Bangka.

Tin production in Southeast Asia's largest economy is estimated to be around 105,000 tonnes in 2010.
From Indonesia the metal is shipped to Malaysia via Singapore, where it is given London Metal Exchange branding, and then sold on the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market or directly to consumers in Europe. It is also exported to Thailand.

"You are going to see production fall to the tune of 10 percent, even though higher prices will incentivize people to be a bit more risky with mining," said the analyst, adding that he sees tin prices peaking at $35,000 a tonne in 2011.

Soaring demand will help send tin almost 38 percent higher this year, a Reuters poll showed this week.
The survey of 51 analysts showed the cash tin price would average $27,000 a tonne this year, and rise to $27,419 next year.

LME tin is expected to rise to $34,455 per tonne over the next four weeks, going by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci projection analysis, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said.
An annual survey by tin consultants ITRI this week said 2009 world usage of refined tin was estimated just over 320,000 tonnes, with 2010 global tin consumption rising by 12.5 percent to an estimated 360,300 tonnes. Source: Reuters

Garuda to raise $476 mln in IPO, priced at 750 rph/share

PT Garuda Indonesia, the nation's flag carrier, is set to raise 4.301 trillion rupiah ($476 million) from an initial public offering in February, less than expected after setting a share price of 750 rupiah, a government minister said on Wednesday.


The share price was at the bottom of the 750-1,100 rupiah initial range set two weeks ago after weak demand as foreign investors were scared away by the the offer's rich pricing.
The firm will sell 5.735 billion new and existing shares, down from earlier plans to sell 9.362 billion shares, said state enterprises minister Mustafa Abubakar.

The price level and cut to the offering size, confirming a Reuters story on Tuesday, showed Garuda Indonesia's hopes for a high-flying $1.1 billion IPO have failed to get off the ground.
After a surge in interest in Southeast Asia's largest economy last year and a recovery in the global airline industry, appetite for the Garuda deal has sharply fallen.

Garuda's IPO is the first of a slew of state enterprises due for flotation this year and will also be closely watched by flag carrier Vietnam Airlines, which is planning to go public this year. ($1 = 9036.5 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Pertamina sees 750 bln rph from Tuga Pratama IPO

Indonesia's state oil and gas firm PT Pertamina expects to raise 750 billion rupiah ($83 million) from its subsidiary insurance firm PT Tugu Pratama's initial public offering (IPO), Pertamina's finance director said on Wednesday.

Tugu Pratama plans to sell 20 to 30 percent of new shares in the IPO, which is expected to be launched in the first half of this year.  Source: Reuters

Indonesian tin output in Bangka normal, rains easing -sources

Tin output in Indonesia's main tin producing area Bangka island were normal on Wednesday, while heavy rains that have hampered output in recent months are easing, industry sources said.

Benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange hit a record high at $28,698 a tonne on

Wednesday, as persistent worries about supplies from top exporter Indonesia boosted prices.
Local miners and metal analysts still expect output to fall this year however, on a lack of investment and declining onshore reserves, which is likely to support prices. Source: Reuters

LME tin hits record on Indonesia supply worries

London Metal Exchange tin rallied to a record high on Wednesday, supported by gains in other metals and worries about supply from top exporter Indonesia.

Benchmark tin rose $55 to $28,250 a tonne, while copper rallied 1 percent to $9,343, paring sharp losses in the previous session.

Heavy rains and floods caused by the La Nina weather anomaly have hit tin miners in Indonesia, squeezing supply from the world's top exporter of the metal. Source: Reuters

New Indonesia trade rule causes delay to some coal shipments-sources

A new Indonesian trade rule has caused delay to some coal shipments, particularly to Indian buyers, which could tighten supply from the world's top thermal coal exporter, said trade sources on Wednesday.

The trade ministry ordered surveyors in January to temporarily stop issuing surveyor reports to traders who are in the process of reapplying for trading permits under a new coal and mining law system. The surveyor reports are documents required for shipping the fuel.
Traders could not confirm how many cargoes were being delayed, but said vessels were being held up at ports. Source: Reuters

Shortfall talk pushes tin to record high

The price of tin, the metal used in soldering and packaging, jumped to a record high as traders braced for another year of supply shortfalls.

Peter Kettle, of the International Tin Research Institute, expects tin demand to outstrip supply by about 20,000 tonnes in 2011, following a shortfall of 22,000 tonnes last year that drove a 59 per cent rally in prices.

London Metal Exchange inventories of tin are just 17,550 tonnes.

“There’s not a lot happening in terms of building new supplies,” Mr Kettle said. “Longer term, we will see new mines starting up, but . . . it will probably take 2-3 years.”

On Tuesday, the benchmark tin contract for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.7 per cent to $28,200 a tonne. 

Although all eyes have focused on copper, the darling of hedge funds, mining executives and commodity bankers, tin has been the best performing industrial metal on the LME so far this year, rising 5 per cent. Copper is down 4.2 per cent, trading at $9,270 a tonne on Tuesday, while nickel is the only other metal to have posted a gain in the year to date.

David Wilson, base metals analyst at Société Générale in London, said tin prices could touch $30,000 a tonne on the back of stagnating mine supply. “I see constrained supply being the key driver,” Mr Wilson said. “There has been such a long-term lack of investment in mine capacity.”

Tin prices have surged 180 per cent since the depths of the financial crisis as consumption by the electronics industry has rebounded. 

Global refined tin demand rose 12.5 per cent in 2010 to 360,000 tonnes, according to an ITRI survey released on Tuesday, with consumption by the solder industry contributing to the bulk of the increase. Chinese tin consumption rose to a record 147,000 tonnes.

However, Mr Kettle expected demand growth to moderate in 2011. 

High prices have not yet led to large-scale substitution out of tin by manufacturers, Mr Kettle added, but he warned: “We are worried as an industry about the difficult position that consumers are in. 

“If prices go higher, it will stimulate long-term efforts to find other materials, which could hit the industry five or 10 years down the line.” Source: Financial Times

Harga Rights Issue Bank Mandiri Rp 5.000/Saham

Harga penawaran saham terbatas (rights issue) PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) akhirnya ditetapkan pemerintah sebesar Rp 5.000 per saham. Perseroan bisa meraup dana sekitar Rp 11,3 triliun.

Demikian penjelasan Direktur Utama Bank Mandiri Zulkifli Zaini dalam keterbukaan informasinya di situs resmi BEI, Rabu (26/1).

Dengan harga eksekusi Rp 5.000, harga rights issue Bank Mandiri terdiskon 11,5% dari harga penutupan pada perdagangan 25 Januari 2011 sebesar Rp 5.650 per lembar.

Setelah aksi korporasi ini, kepemilikan pemerintah di Bank Mandiri yang sebelumnya menguasai 66,7%, akan terdilusi sehingga menjadi 60%. Total saham Bank Mandiri yang beredar di pasar akan meningkat menjadi 23,33 miliar lembar saham.

Newmont Sues Indonesia's Merukh for Breaching Terms of $300 Million Loan

Two units of Newmont Mining Corp., the world’s second-largest gold producer, are suing its Indonesian partner and businessman Jusuf Merukh in Singapore for reneging on the terms tied to a $300 million loan agreement. 

Newmont Indonesia Ltd. and NVL (USA) Ltd. sued Merukh’s PT Pukuafu Indah and five of his family members in a bid to get legal proceedings in Jakarta dropped as agreed under the loan, according to papers filed with the Singapore High Court. A closed hearing is scheduled for Jan. 28. 

Newmont and Pukuafu are among shareholders of PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara, which operates the Batu Hijau gold and copper mine on Indonesia’s Sumbawa Island. Pukuafu has filed five lawsuits in Jakarta against Greenwood Village, Colorado-based miner Newmont disputing the ownership of the mine. Pukuafu claims it’s entitled to a 31 percent stake while Newmont says it properly reduced its ownership. 

The Merukhs and their legal representatives failed to turn up for arbitration in Singapore that ordered their Indonesian proceedings to be halted, according to court papers. 

“We don’t know about Newmont’s plan to sue us in Singapore about the loan agreement,” Tri Asnawanto, Pukuafu’s vice president of legal and external affairs, said by phone late yesterday. “But we are ready to face it because we are not in breach of any agreement.” 

Pukuafu is a unit of Merukh Enterprise Corp., controlled by politician and businessman Jusuf Merukh, which has interests ranging from hotels to gold, copper and coal mines in Indonesia. 

Additional Litigation

The family and Pukuafu “not only failed to terminate the Indonesian litigation as promised, but in fact, over time commenced additional litigation before the Indonesian courts, Newmont said. 

Pukuafu “has steadfastly refused to cooperate,” after benefitting from the loan and Newmont’s “indulgences,” the U.S. company said in court papers. At least $260 million of the loan has been drawn, Newmont said. 

Newmont extended the $300 million loan to Pukuafu in 2009 after the Indonesian company defaulted on payments to its bondholders.

Blake Rhodes, Newmont’s deputy general counsel, said the company had no choice but to initiate court proceedings in Singapore. 

“Despite repeated attempts urging Pukuafu and members of the Merukh family to live up to their contractual obligations, they have not,” Rhodes said in an e-mailed statement.

The case is Newmont Indonesia Ltd. v PT Pukuafu Indah, OS1192/2010 in the Singapore High Court. Source: Bloomberg

Adani, Reddy Lead India's Billionaires in $15 Billion Indonesia Expansion

Indian companies led by billionaires Gautam Adani and G.V. Krishna Reddy signed accords worth $15 billion for projects including airports, steel plants, ports and railroads in Indonesia. 

A GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd.-led venture will spend as much as $4 billion to build two airports in Indonesia and Adani Group signed a deal to build a railway and port worth about $1.8 billion, the companies said separately yesterday. Indian companies including Tata Power Ltd. signed 18 agreements with Indonesia, according to a government statement. 

Indian companies that have built utilities, sea ports, airports and factories at home are leveraging their experience to win projects overseas. Indonesia has supplies of coal that companies such as Tata Power may seek to tap, said P. Phani Sekhar of Angel Broking Ltd. 

“There is great similarity” between India and Indonesia, said Sekhar, a fund manager at Mumbai-based Angel Broking. “There is domestic opportunity and the natural resources of Indonesia are far too tempting.” 

GVK Power signed an agreement with Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal, a board set up by Indonesia to facilitate investments, and PT Pembangunan Bali Mandiri, which promotes airport development, to build two airports in North Bali and Yogyakarta, Java, the Hyderabad-based company said in a statement yesterday. 

GVK Power, which is building an airport in Mumbai and manages an airport in Bangalore, also operates power generation plants across India, according to its website. 

Track Record

“Our capabilities, expertise and strong track record in the airports sector is well established in India,” said Reddy. “This agreement will yield significant synergies.” 

Adani Enterprises Ltd. signed an agreement for setting up a rail link and a port project with the regional government of Sumatra Selatan and PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam, a coal mining company, the Ahmedabad, India-based company said in a news release yesterday. 

The project involves the construction of a 250-kilometer (155 miles) railroad linking a coal mining area with a port that will also be built by the collaborating companies, Adani said. 

The Adani Group, which operates ports, power plants, sells edible oils and distributes gas, in August purchased coal assets in Australia. Earlier this month, the company bought two ships to transport coal from its mines in Indonesia and Australia. 

‘Closer to Goal’

“These initiatives in Indonesia, Australia and even in India will bring us closer to achieve our stated goal of 20,000 megawatts of power generation, 200 million metric tons per annum of coal mining, 200 MMTPA of cargo handling and owning 20 capesize ships by 2020,” Chairman Gautam Adani said in a statement yesterday. 

International Coal Ventures Ltd., which consists of Indian state-run metal and energy companies, plans to invest $3 billion to build a steel plant in Indonesia. 

“Indonesia is prioritizing the development of power generation, transport networks, ports and airports,” President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono told reporters in New Delhi. “We have revitalized the investment climate for infrastructure building by the private sector.” 

Yudhoyono said India and Indonesia have pledged to double bilateral trade to $25 billion by 2015 from the current level of about $12 billion. 

This is Yudhoyono’s first state visit to India since 2005 when the countries announced a strategic partnership aimed at enhancing trade and political ties. He will be the chief guest at Republic Day celebrations today. Source: Bloomberg

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 26 Januari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari empat sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Rabu, 26 Januari 2011.

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan kemarin IHSG ditutup naik 87 poin (2,62%) ke level 3.433,91. Asing melakukan net buying Rp 302 miliar dengan sektor yang paling banyak dimasuki adalah otomotif dan perbankan. Kemarin, indeks mengalami teknikal rebound setelah beberapa hari menurun. Kenaikan indeks Selasa lalu belum dapat dipastikan sebagai berakhirnya fase bearish. Soalnya, belum adanya sinyal konfirmasi dan volume transaksi harian masih di bawah rata-rata. Hari ini indeks akan bergerak di kisaran 3.342-3.442 dengan saham-saham pilihan ASII, AALI dan ADRO.

2. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Saham-saham sektor perkebunan, keuangan, manufaktur, aneka industri, perdagangan menjadi motor penggerak IHSG kemarin. Ini dipicu menguatnya indeks bursa global dan aksi beli asing, serta penguatan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS). Hari ini indeks diprediksi menguat berfluktuasi pada kisaran 3.406-3.455. Buy AKRA ASII, BBNI, BBRI, TINS, dan jual BMDN, BLTA.

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Kemarin  asing membukukan net buying Rp 332 miliar, sehingga IHSG terkatrol. Hari ini indeks diprediksi bergerak menguat di kisaran 3.371-3.470, melanjutkan penguatan terbatas dari rebound kemarin. Penguatan indeks dan harga komoditas akan dibatasi oleh trend penguatan dolar AS. Saham-saham yang perlu dicermati adalah ASII, INDF, dan BMRI.

4. Erdhika Sekuritas

IHSG ditutup menguat 87,84 poin (2,63%) ke level 3.433,91. Seluruh sektor mengalami penguatan, terbesar pada sektor ragam industri sebesar 4.79%. Pada Rabu (26/1), indeks akan berada pada kisaran 3.372-3.471 dengan saham-saham pilihan AALI, UNTR, PTBA.   

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 26 Januari 2011

Untuk Rabu, 26 Januari 2011, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihannya dengan rekomendasi beli, yakni Bank BJB (BJBR), Adaro Energy (ADRO), Bank Mandiri (BMRI), dan Astra International (ASII).

BUY: (BJBR, ADRO, BMRI, ASII)

• Sentimen positif dari regional dan rupiah yang menguat membawa IHSG melewati resistance kunci di 3.383, dan bila keadaan ini berlanjut maka resistance berikutnya ada di 3.500.
   
• IHSG close (25-01) 3.431.020(+84.930/+2.54%) (Val.Rp.4.7T)

• Support: 3.383-3.280-3.150, Resistance: 3,500-3,650-3,770

 

Stock picks:

1.    Adaro Energy (ADRO): (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.625) (close 25/01 Rp 2.450)

• Secara technical pattern candle tweezers bottom (dua matching lows di 2.300) dan daily stochastic yang menukik menandakan bahwa potensi upward rectracement ke down-trend-line di Rp 2.625
   
• Bila kenaikan melanjuti level tersebut diperkirakan ADRO kembali ke pattern uptrend dengan misi mencoba mencetak high baru di atas level Rp 2.900
   
• Secara technical ada keadaan oversold & stochastic buy menunjukkan kalau kekuatan tren turun mulai berkurang dan potensi technical rebound dapat terjadi.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.450, Entry (2) Rp 2.350, Cut loss point: Rp 2.250

 

2.   Bank Jawa Barat (BJBR) (BUY): (Target: Rp 1.240) (Close 25/01 Rp 1.160)

• Valuasi yang sangat murah (2011F PER 8x & PBV1.8x) dengan ROE yang masih di atas 20% membuatnya menjadi pilihan menarik untuk upward retracement recovery scenario dalam keadaan yang oversold dengan divergence dan technical buy signal dari stochastic harian di confirm oleh high volume.

• Entry (1) Rp 1.160, Entry (2) Rp 1.140, Cut loss point: Rp 1.110

 

3.   Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 5.950) (Close 25/01 Rp 5.600)

• Pembatalan harga rights issue di Rp 5.100 yang dirasa kerendahan akibat keadaan pasar yang masih belum stabil disambut positif oleh market.
   
• Selain valuasi menarik (2011 PER 11x, PBV 2.5x), secara technical adanya stochastic buy di confirm oleh ADX slope yang rata menunjukan bahwa downside momentum berkurang dan saatnya rebound.
   
• Secara technical terjadi divergensi di daily stochastic yang tidak membentuk new low dalam koreksi dari Rp 4.800 ke Rp 4.300.
   
• Entry: (1) Rp 5.500, Entry (2) 5.300, Cut loss point: Rp 5.100

 

4.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY) (Target: Rp 51.500) (close 25/01 Rp 49.350)

• Valuasi 2011F PER/PBV (12x/2.7x) membuat domestic consumer theme ini layak dilirik untuk scenario upward rectracement menuju moving average 50-hari di Rp 51.500.
   
• Daily stochastic yang telah memberikan buy signal sejak minggu lalu sudah cross di atas 50-line into positive territory.

• Entry: (1) Rp 49.150, Entry (2) Rp 48.350, Cut-loss point: Rp 47.600

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)