Bumi Resources Advances Most in Four Months on Debt Payment

PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s biggest coal producer, advanced the most in more than four months in Jakarta trading on speculation that a plan to repay debt ahead of schedule will boost earnings. 

Bumi rose 7.1 percent to 3,400 rupiah, the largest gain since Dec. 1 and beating the 0.4 percent increase in the benchmark Jakarta Composite index. (JCI)

The coal producer reported on March 31 a 63 percent jump in profit to $311 million last year, surpassing the mean estimate of $276 million in a Bloomberg survey of 17 analysts. Bumi plans to repay the first tranche of debt to China Investment Corp. in October, Nathaniel Rothschild, co-chairman of Vallar Plc that owns 25 percent of the Indonesian company, said on April 11, without specifying amounts. 

“People’s expectations on Bumi’s earnings have improved,” said Norico Gaman, head of research at PT BNI Securities, who recommends buying the stock. “A debt reduction at the same time as production capacity increases could mean that profit growth in 2011 will exceed that of 2010.” 

Bumi plans to repay early $600 million of debt due October 2013 to the Chinese sovereign wealth fund as part of the company’s aim to cut debt by $1 billion this year, Director Dileep Srivastava said on Feb. 7. 

The coal producer aims to increase output to 111 million metric tons in 2012 from 60 million tons in 2009, the company said in March last year. Sales and prices may rise by at least 10 percent this year, Srivastava said on Jan. 21. 

Bumi has climbed 42 percent in Jakarta trading in the past year, outperforming the 30 percent gain in the main index. Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia's March tin exports jump 37.6 pct -ministry

Indonesia's refined tin exports rose 37.6 percent in March from the same month last year as smelters increased shipments to benefit from high prices and as rains eased, an official at the trade ministry said on Wednesday.

Indonesia, the world's top tin exporter, shipped 9,051.46 tonnes of refined tin in March, compared to 6,576.01 tonnes in March last year, trade ministry data showed. 

"The weather is improving and tin prices are also high, which helped smelters step up production," said Junaedi, the head of the export of mining products at the ministry.

Smelters may also process tin slag to produce more refined tin, he added. 

Tin shipments to Japan tripled in March to 304.64 tonnes despite the evastating tsunami and earthquake from 95.37 tonnes in February, data showed. 

However, smelters said on Monday that the supply of tin ore to independent smelters in Bangka island, the country's main source of tin, had fallen as rain and police raids on illegal miners had hampered mining.

The police have confiscated 72 tonnes of illegal tin ore on the island, Juwari, the South Bangka police chief, said on Wednesday. 

Smelters expect tin production to fall in coming weeks because of tight raw material supplies as small-scale traditional miners cut back on activity to avoid police raids. 

A crackdown on illegal mining, tighter export regulations, declining onshore reserves and rain that has hindered production in Indonesia have helped drive the tin rally.

Indonesia expects to produce 90,000 tonnes of refined tin this year, up from 78,965 tonnes in 2010. Source: Reuters

Mandiri says Q1 loan growth seen at 20 pct

Bank Mandiri, Indonesia's largest bank by assets, said on Wednesday its loan growth was seen at 20 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, and its full-year loan growth was forecast to be 20 to 22 percent. Source: Reuters

Vallar says no tender offer for Bumi even if it takes 51 pct

* Vallar says Bakrie Group will remain controlling shareholder of Bumi/Vallar

* In talks with Bumi's institutional investors to swap shares in them for Vallar

* Says China Investment Corp wants to be a long-term partner of Bumi/Vallar

* Plans to focus on organic growth in the group

London-listed Vallar said on Monday it would not have to tender for the remaining shares in coal miner Bumi Resources if it achieved its aim of taking a stake of up to 51 percent as sister company Bakrie Group would remain Bumi's controlling shareholder. 

Bakrie & Brothers , a major Vallar shareholder, told Reuters last month that the Jersey-based firm would increase its stake in Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, Bumi Resources , to up to 51 percent by June this year.

Indonesian capital market law requires that a firm conducts a tender offer if it buys a majority stake in a Jakarta-listed company. However, Vallar will be exempt from the regulation if it can prove that the controlling shareholder is unchanged. 

"Bakrie will always keep a large stake ... The Bakrie Group will stay as a controlling shareholder of the group [Vallar]," said Vallar's co-founder, Daren Morris, adding that the completion of talks with Bumi shareholders to swap their shares for stock in Vallar was expected in May. 

A Vallar prospectus issued in February said Vallar would issue new shares for Bumi stock owned by other shareholders if there were future transactions to increase its ownership in Bumi. 

The Bakrie Group, including Bakrie & Brothers, and the Rothschild banking dynasty joined forces in November for Vallar to take a 25 percent stake in Bumi and a 75 percent stake in Berau Coal Energy . The Bakrie Group will own 43 percent in Vallar, which will be renamed Bumi Plc. 

Vallar will focus on expanding the group organically as it aims to produce up to 140 million tonnes of coal in 2013 from both Bumi and Berau, although it does not rule out acquisitions.

DEBT AND CIC

High debt levels and corporate governance have been the main concerns for investors in Bumi Resources and other firms linked to the politically connected Bakrie Group.

Bumi, which already controls 10 percent of the global thermal coal market, has $3.6 billion of net debt at high interest rates and its debt-to-equity ratio is 2.52, higher than other Indonesian coal miners, such as Adaro Energy at 0.68, according to ThomsonReuters Starmine. 

Bumi obtained a $1.9 billion loan from China Investment Corp (CIC) , one of its biggest single creditors, in 2009 with a 12 percent annual interest rate. 

"The level of leverage on Bumi is not an issue at all ... The issue obviously is that the cost of debt should be a lot lower," said Nathaniel Rothschild, Vallar co-chairman. "So if we're borrowing in London today we could borrow at between 8 to 8.5 percent." 

Vallar is currently in talks with CIC to repay a first tranche of the debt worth $600 million in October and is looking for several options for payment, including cash and a debt for equity swap. 

"CIC wants a long-term relationship with Bumi. They want to be a partner," Morris said.

Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 13 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Rabu, 13 April 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) kemarin turun 26 poin (-0,71%) ke level 3.719,23. Ini seiring anjloknya indeks regional karena berita kenaikan kadar radiasi nuklir di Jepang. Di sisi lain, asing membukukan net selling Rp 258 miliar. Secara teknikal, kemarin indeks ditutup di bawah garis support MA 5 yang berada di level 3.733. Waspadai adanya koreksi lanjutan melihat indikator Stochastic telah bergerak downtrend setelah membentuk deathcross. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.671–3.749. Cemati BBRI, BJBR, dan CTRA.

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Pada perdagangan Rabu (13/4), secara teknikal, indeks masih cenderung bergerak melemah pada kisaran 3.670-3.740. Pergerakan indeks masih dibayangi oleh kekhawatiran tingkat radiasi di Jepang. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan BDMN, BJBR, MYOR, JSMR.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 13 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 13 April 2011.

BUY: (BBRI, BUMI, ASII) SELL (BJBR)

• Koreksi yang terjadi akibat imbas regional membuat beberapa big cap index movers menarik untuk diakumulasi sembari menunggu technical rebound

• IHSG close (12-04) 3.707.387(-26.236/-0.56%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

• Support: 3.680-3.610-3.450, Resistance: 3,770-3,850

 

Stock picks:

1.     Bank BRI (BBRI): (BUY) (target: Rp 6.300) (close 12/04 Rp 6.100)

• Minor pullback yang terjadi untuk mengurangi keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) pasca kenaikan beberapa hari yang lalu dapat digunakan sebagai kesempatan akumulasi

• Valuasi BBRI dengan PER 2011 13x masih lebih murah daripada BMRI, BBNI, BBCA yang bermain di atas PER 16x.

• BI rate tetap di 6.75% sangat membantu BBRI karena cost of funding untuk penyaluran kredit yang murah dapat dipertahankan

• Entry (1) Rp 6.050, Entry (2) Rp 5.950, Cut loss point: Rp 5.800

 

2.    Bumi Resources (BUMI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.300) (Close 12/04 Rp 3.175)

• Proses deleveraging (debt restructuring share swap) dengan aliansi Vallar masih terus berlanjut dan pasar mulai price in efek positif terhadap pengurangan beban biaya utang yang akan translate ke penambahan laba untuk laporan keuangan 1H 2011.

• Bila masih terjad koreksi rekomen menambah posisi

• Entry (1) Rp 3.100, Entry (2) Rp 3.000, Cut loss point: Rp 2.925

 

3.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 57.900) (Close 12/04 Rp 56.150)

• Ketakutan akan berkurangnya impor suplai bahan baku mobil berlebihan karena Toyota di Indonesia mengunakan kurang dari 10% dalam pembuatan mobilnya (Avanza and Innova)

• Faktor suku bunga lebih pengaruh ke penjualan mobil namun dengan suku bunga tetap kelihatannya penjualan mobil di April dan Mai akan naik untuk kontribusi signifikan ke kinerja 1H 2011.

• Entry: (1) Rp 56.050, Entry (2) Rp 55.450, Cut loss point: Rp 54.400

 

4.  Bank Jawa Barat (BJBR) (SELL) (Target: Rp 1.290) (close 12/04 Rp 1.330)

• Kenaikan selama beberapa hari membuat emiten ini menjadi jenuh beli dan valuasi menjadi mahal (PER 14.46x) dibadingkan dengan BBRI (PER 13x) sebagai perbandingan dalam spesialis kredit UKM.

• Exit (1) Rp 1.340, Entry (2) Rp 1.350, Reverse posisi:Rp 1.370

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)