Palm Oil Reaches 3,500 Ringgit for First Time in 28 Months

Palm oil advanced to 3,500 ringgit ($1,110) a metric ton for the first time since July 2008 as an increase in shipments from the biggest producers boosted optimism that demand remains strong amid low supplies. 

The February-delivery contract rose as much as 2.6 percent to 3,500 ringgit on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange and closed at 3,486 ringgit, the highest price since July 15, 2008. Futures climbed 11 percent in November, the fifth monthly increase. 

Exports from Malaysia climbed 11.7 percent to 1.51 million tons in November from the previous month, surveyor Intertek said yesterday. Shipments rose to 1.56 million tons, Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Sales from Indonesia climbed 13 percent to 1.45 million tons in October from a year earlier, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association said Nov. 25. The two countries represent about 90 percent of global output. 

“Encouraging export figures from Malaysia is a positive sign that demand isn’t subsiding,” Ker Chung Yang, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte., said by phone from Singapore. 

Output in Indonesia may decline this year to 21.8 million tons, less than 22.5 million tons forecast previously, on lower yields, the China National Grain & Oils Information Center said on Nov. 29, citing OilWorld, an industry publication. 

Stockpiles in Malaysia may not be enough to meet demand during the Lunar New Year holiday in February, according to Arhnue Tan, a senior analyst at ECM Libra Capital Sdn.

“There are some supply concerns in Malaysia, which should probably keep prices strong into early next year,” Tan said. 

Malaysia’s production fell 1 percent to 14.3 million tons in the first 10 months of the year, according to data from the nation’s palm oil board. Output this year may total about 17.6 million tons, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Bernard Dompok said Nov. 17.

‘Downward Pressure’

Still, a recovery in palm and soybean oils production in 2011 “may put downward pressure on prices” said Siti Rudziah Salikin, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s Equity Research Services. Strong demand from China and India will help limit the downside, according to the report. 

Palm oil may average 3,000 ringgit in the quarter ending December and 2,800 ringgit in 2011, the report said. 

Dry weather in South America, especially Argentina, could affect soybean crops, supporting the palm oil market, Phillip Futures’ Ker said. The two cooking oils are direct substitutes.

January-delivery soybean oil climbed as much as 1.2 percent to 51.63 cents a pound in after-hours trading in Chicago, while soybeans for January delivery advanced as much as 1 percent to $12.5550 a bushel. 

China, the world’s biggest cooking-oil user, has ordered four suppliers including Wilmar International Ltd. and Cofco Ltd. not to lift product prices to help slow inflation, the National Business Daily said, citing people it didn’t identify. 

September-delivery palm oil on the Dalian exchange climbed 1.6 percent to 8,984 yuan ($1,348) a ton, the highest closing price since Nov. 15, and soybean oil for delivery in the same month advanced 1.1 percent to 9,628 yuan a ton, a two-week high. 

CME Group Inc.’s March palm oil contract fell as much as 1.4 percent to $1,077.25 a ton. Futures jumped 6.4 percent yesterday, the most since the contract began trading in May.Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia May Delay Newmont Nusa Tenggara Stake Sale

The Indonesian government may delay the divestment of a 7 percent stake in the local unit of Newmont Mining Corp. following a Jakarta court ruling that disputed ownership of the shares, an official said.

“It may be hard to proceed with the divestment following the court ruling and appeal process by Newmont,” Witoro Soelarno, secretary to the director general of coal and minerals at the Energy Ministry, said in an interview in Jakarta today. “The shares are in dispute and it may affect the stake sale process and the result.”

The South Jakarta District Court ruled yesterday that PT Pukuafu Indah is entitled to the 31 percent stake in PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara that Newmont Mining subsidiary Newmont Indonesia Ltd., along with Nusa Tenggara Mining, a unit of Sumitomo Corp., are required to divest. The court also ordered Newmont to pay Pukuafu $26.6 million for material loss.

Pukuafu, which owns a 20 percent stake in Newmont Nusa Tenggara, filed a lawsuit in December 2009 seeking cancellation of an earlier ruling by an international arbitration court that ordered foreign shareholders of Newmont Nusa Tenggara to reduce their combined stake to 49 percent by 2010.

Newmont Appeal

Newmont will appeal the Jakarta court ruling and is confident of it being reversed, Blake Rhodes, vice president and deputy general counsel of Newmont, said in a statement yesterday.

“The arbitration process was followed for the purpose of clarifying the Government’s and the foreign shareholders’ rights and obligations on divestiture,” Rhodes said. “Newmont Indonesia and Nusa Tenggara Mining properly divested 24 percent of Newmont Nusa Tenggara to the party nominated by the government.”

Newmont Nusa Tenggara, which operates the Batu Hijau gold and copper mine on Indonesia’s Sumbawa island, under a 1986 agreement, was required to offer 3 percent of its stake to the central government or its agencies in 2006, and 7 percent in each year from 2007 to 2010. PT Bumi Resources, through its venture with three local administrations in West Nusa Tenggara province, has bought a 24 percent stake through the divestment program. Officials from Bumi were not immediately available for comment.

Pukuafu ordered Newmont to transfer the 31 percent stake immediately, Tri Asnawanto, Pukuafu’s vice president of legal and external affairs, said by e-mail yesterday. Pukuafu is the unit of Merukh Enterprise Corp. controlled by politician and businessman Jusuf Merukh, which has interests ranging from hotels to gold, copper and to coal mines in Indonesia.Source: Bloomberg

CLSA Indonesia Borong 60 Ribu Lot Saham BUMI

Meski laba bersih BUMI kuartal III-2010 turun, CLSA Indonesia tercatat memborong 60 ribu lot saham perseroan. Aksi beli oleh investor lokal tersebut dilakukan pada harga rata-rata Rp 2.784.


Sementara itu, investor asing melalui Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia cenderung trading saham BUMI dengan membeli 50.172 lot dan menjual 30.567 lot. Investor asing lainnya melalui Macquarie Securities melepas 19.770 lot saham BUMI.


Saat ini tidak tampak aksi akumulasi saham BUMI secara simultan oleh investor asing. Yang terjadi justru lokal yang masih mengakumulasi saham ini.
 

1	KZ	CLSA INDONESIA	209	60,000	2,784.11	40	7,516	2,753.43	52,484	67,516
2	CS	CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA	394	50,172	2,785.21	279	30,567	2,791.00	19,605	80,739
3	OD	DANAREKSA SEKURITAS	109	20,249	2,799.84	98	1,455	2,813.81	18,794	21,704
4	MI	VICTORIA SEKURITAS	98	16,015	2,840.63	11	446	2,846.19	15,569	16,461
5	YJ	LAUTANDHANA SECURINDO	190	29,456	2,801.86	100	16,235	2,791.66	13,221	45,691

102	AO	ERDIKHA ELIT	8	328	2,824.85	92	9,463	2,762.23	-9,135	9,791
103	PO	BALI SECURITIES	72	10,133	2,783.96	172	24,983	2,788.96	-14,850	35,116
104	RX	MACQUARIE SECURITIES INDONESIA	-	-	-	68	19,770	2,754.69	-19,770	19,770
105	PD	INDO PREMIER SECURITIES	237	6,053	2,804.60	479	42,383	2,806.27	-36,330	48,436

Rothschild Plays His Strongest Suit With $3 Billion Mining Deal

Nathaniel Rothschild’s most successful trade as a hedge-fund manager was his investment in U.S. mining company Phelps Dodge Corp. The future 5th Baron Rothschild says he now plans to build one of the world’s largest coal producers. 

A member of the Rothschild lineage that helped bankroll Britain’s war against Napoleonic France, he’s leading a $3 billion takeover that will create the biggest exporter of coal to China. 

Rothschild is leveraging his name, more than a decade of hedge-fund experience and a network that reads like a Who’s Who of commodities. He’s friends with Ivan Glasenberg, head of the biggest commodity trader Glencore International AG; advises Russian aluminum billionaire Oleg Deripaska; and is on the board of Peter Munk’s Barrick Gold Corp., the largest gold miner. 

“There’s no global coal company today,” Rothschild, 39, says in an interview. “There’s not a Barrick Gold in coal. That’s where the opportunity is.” 

Rothschild had been searching for a natural-resources acquisition since Vallar Plc, the investment company he founded, raised 707 million pounds ($1.1 billion) in an initial public offering in London in July. The transaction announced Nov. 16 will combine Vallar, 25 percent of Indonesian coal producer PT Bumi Resources and 75 percent of PT Berau Coal Energy. 

“My plate is pretty full,” says Rothschild. “The only slight kind of stress is on my travel schedule and my social life, which is non-existent.”

Atticus Career

Rothschild has “the nerve to call up anyone and what’s interesting is he’s taken seriously,” says Michael Rawlinson, a banker who met Rothschild in New York in the 1990s and is now head of resources at Liberum Capital Ltd. in London. “Ivan Glasenberg or Oleg Deripaska, they’ve come from nothing,” he says, “they are not impressed by posh blokes.” 

Before setting up Vallar, Rothschild worked at hedge-fund firm Atticus Capital LP in New York, which generated almost $7 billion for investors. Most of the Atticus funds were wound up last year after founder Timothy Barakett decided to spend more time with his family. 

Rothschild says his work at Atticus “immersed” him in commodities, which became his “strongest suit.” He also got to know some of the industry’s most influential people.

“He has an unparalleled range of contacts,” says Munk, Barrick’s founder and chairman. “Certainly being a Rothschild does help, but opening a door, if you’re an idiot, it’s a single event. He has shown a talent.” 

Eton, Oxford

Rothschild is the only son of U.K. financier Lord Jacob Rothschild, the 4th Baron Rothschild, a former banker and modern art collector. 

He attended Eton, the English private school that counts 19 British prime ministers as former pupils, and is dating Princess Florence von Preussen, the great-great-granddaughter of the last German Emperor Kaiser Wilhelm II, according to the U.K.’s Daily Mail. 

After studying history at Oxford University, Rothschild joined Lazard Ltd., having been introduced to the world of finance during trips with his father to New York to meet the business elite. 

“I was exposed at a very, very early age to a lot of these big Wall Street tycoons,” he says.

On one visit, father and son met Eric Gleacher, whose investment bank Gleacher & Co. was two floors below the Rothschild family office on Madison Avenue. Gleacher offered Rothschild a job as an analyst, and it was there that he met Harvard Business School graduate Barakett. Rothschild joined him the following year as Atticus’s second employee. 

Dinner With Deripaska

The hedge fund, named after Atticus Finch in Harper Lee’s novel To Kill a Mockingbird, was an activist shareholder, pressing U.S. copper producer Phelps Dodge Corp. to return cash to shareholders and find a buyer. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.’s 2007 acquisition of Phelps returned a $520 million gain, Atticus’s most successful trade, Rothschild says. 

While at Atticus Rothschild established his relationship with Deripaska. They first met in Paris in 2002 at a meeting where “the average age was considerably older than our average ages,” he says. “We ended up going out and having dinner.” 

Rothschild chairs the board of EN+ Group Ltd., the holding company through which Deripaska controls assets including Moscow-based United Co. Rusal, the largest aluminum maker.

Los Angeles Meeting

Since the Vallar IPO, he says he’s looked at potential deals with OAO Polyus Gold, Russia’s largest producer of the precious metal, and Moscow-based iron-ore miner OAO Metalloinvest. 

It was in Los Angeles in October that he met for the first time with Nirwan Bakrie, one of the Bakrie family, which controls Bumi, Indonesia’s largest coal producer. The three-way merger will create a “resources champion” in Indonesia, according to Vallar. The country is the world’s biggest exporter of power-station coal. 

“Indonesia is a sleeping giant,” Rothschild says. “One scratches one’s head to think why isn’t there a mining champion out there already and hopefully we are in the process of showcasing one in the years ahead.” 

The new company, Bumi Plc, will trade in London, using Vallar’s listing there.

“To be able to do an IPO without having any assets, he has to be somebody,” Indra Bakrie, who will be Bumi Plc’s chairman, says of Rothschild. “I wish I could do that.” Source: Bloomberg

Bumi 9-Month Net Income Declines 37% on Finance Costs

PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s biggest coal producer, posted a 37 percent decline in nine-month profit from a year earlier as finance costs surged.

Net income fell to $195.6 million, or 1 cent a share, from $310.6 million, or 1.6 cents a share, the same period a year earlier, the company said in a statement posted on the Indonesia Stock Exchange website today. Interest expenses and finance charges increased to $449 million from $80.3 million.

“Full year 2009 net income was $190 million,” Bumi Corporate Secretary Dileep Srivastava said in an e-mail today. “Year to date September 2010 net income at $195 million is already higher than full-year 2009. This is in spite of higher interest charges.”

Bumi, based in Jakarta, expects revenue to rise 14 percent to 15 percent this year due to an increase in the average selling price to $70 a ton, Srivastava said Nov. 11. Bumi posted $3.2 billion in revenue, with a selling price of $63.1 a ton last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Sales volume through September 30 this year was 44.9 million tons, compared with 41.2 million tons the same period a year earlier, Srivastava said. The average selling price for coal was $74.30 a ton compared with $57.90 a ton for the same period a year ago, resulting in stronger revenue, he said.

Revenue through Sept. 30 rose to $3.17 billion from $2.65 billion a year earlier, Bumi said in the statement filed today.

Debt Reduction

“Bumi is on track to cut debt by $600 million in 2010 and by another $1 billion in 2011,’ Srivastava said. “That is expected to reduce the interest burden significantly, leading to an increasingly robust bottom line going forward.”

Bumi’s 2010 net income is forecast at $336.6 million, according to a mean estimate of 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The unit of PT Bakrie & Brothers, an investment holding company controlled by the family of billionaire and politician Aburizal Bakrie, may produce and sell 60 million tons of coal this year, missing an initial target of 64 million tons due to prolonged heavy rain, Srivastava said Nov. 11. It produced 60 million tons and sold 58 million tons last year.

A La Nina weather event has brought heavier-than-usual rainfall to parts of Australia and Asia this year, including Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The rains have hurt tin and coal production, and also been blamed by industry groups in the country for lower output for palm oil and cocoa.

Bumi fell 11 percent to 2,650 rupiah a share yesterday. The stock has fallen 9.3 percent this year, compared with the 39.3 percent gain in the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index.

Vallar Deal

Nathaniel Rothschild’s Vallar Plc agreed earlier this month to invest $3 billion in two Indonesian coal companies, including Bumi Resources. After the deal, Vallar will be renamed Bumi Plc and Bakrie Group will be the largest shareholder. Bakrie is the first major Indonesian business to tap the U.K. equity market, home to mining stocks with a total market value of more than $250 billion.

The deal would enable the Indonesian miner the financing it needs to almost double output by 2013 and make it the world’s biggest exporter of power station coal, Indra Bakrie, who will become chairman of Bumi Plc, said Nov. 18.

Being in London will allow the company to refinance its $4.2 billion in debt at lower interest rates, freeing up cash flow to invest in expansion, Bakrie said.Source: Bloomberg

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 1 Desember 2010

Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama untuk hari ini.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan kemarin, IHSG ditutup melemah 99 poin (-2,73%) di level 3.531,21. Dari RSI terlihat IHSG berada dalam masa bearish dimulai dari Senin dan asing pun pada perdagangan reguler membukukan net sell senilai Rp 911 milliar. Pada perdagangan hari ini, IHSG diperkirakan berada dalam kisaran 3.500–3.600. Saham-saham yang perlu dicermati antara lain BSDE, DOID, BDMN, dan HRUM.

2. Woori Korindo Securities

IHSG terus menerus didera tekanan jual dimana IHSG hingga kemarin telah terkoreksi selama tiga hari berturut-turut. Kondisi tersebut dipengaruhi oleh membanjirnya sentimen negatif dari global terutama dari potensi krisis utang berkepanjangan di Eropa. Selain itu, kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga acuan dan penerapan kebijakan moneter ketat di Tiongkok turut mempengaruhi indeks. Posisi penutupan IHSG telah melewati level bolinger band bottom di 3.575 dan telah melewati level Fibonacci Retracement 138,2% di 3.557. Dengan demikian, IHSG masih dalam periode downtrend. Hari ini, kami perkirakan IHSG bergerak pada kisaran level 3.478-3.582. Saham-saham pilihan yaitu ADRO dan BSDE.

3. Reliance Securities

Setelah tertekan 2,74%, IHSG pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan masih akan melanjutkan pelemahan. ‎​IHSG akan menguji level psikologis 3.500. Kisaran perdagangan di level 3.488-3.573. Selain sentimen negatif bursa regional dan global, laporan inflasi Indonesia pada November yang meningkat dari bulan sebelumnya ikut memicu pelemahan IHSG. ‎​Saham yang direkomendasikan PGAS, BDMN, BBNI, dan INDF.

Riset Pelat Timah Nusantara oleh HD Capital

Riset Pelat Timah Nusantara oleh HD Capital. Target harga Rp 600/saham
 
Riset Pelat Timah Nusantara Oleh HD Capital

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 1 Desember 2010

Untuk perdagangan Rabu, 1 Desember 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihan dengan opsi beli, yakni Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM), United Tractor (UNTR), Indopoly Swakarsa (IPOL), dan Adaro Energy (ADRO).

BUY: (TLKM, UNTR, IPOL, ADRO)

• Koreksi di IHSG selama beberapa hari ini mulai kehabisan momentum sehingga rekomen akumulasi di beberapa saham selektif untuk antisipasi technical rebound.
• IHSG close (30-11) 3.581.469 (-48.513/-1.31%) (Val.Rp.3.8T)

• Support: 3.575-3.500, Resistance: 3.650-3.700-3.770

 

Stock picks:

1.    Telekomunikasi (TLKM): (BUY) (Target: Rp 8.400) (close 30/11 Rp 8.150)

• Operating cashflow solid yang dapat menunjang operational expansion cost & kemampuan untuk membayar dividen memadai merupakan katalis tambahan selain kenaikan revenue dari hasil kinerja 9-bulan lalu.

• Rekomen akumulasi karena misi untuk mengetes down-trend-line baru di Rp 8.400 belum selesai.

• Entry: (1) Rp 8.150, Entry (2) Rp 7.950, Cut loss point: Rp 7.800

 

2.   United Tractors (UNTR) (BUY): (Target: Rp 24.500) (Close 30/11 Rp 23.550)

• Optimisme akan penjualan sparepart dan alat berat untuk 2010 & 2011 dapat menarik minat bargain hunting untuk meneruskan technical rebound hingga menjebol down-trend-line di Rp 24.500 untuk mengakhiri siklus turun jangka pendek ini.
• Entry (1) Rp 23.500, Entry (2) Rp 22.950, Cut loss point: Rp 22.150

 

3.   Indopoly Swakarsa (IPOL) (BUY): (Target: Rp 270) (Close 30/11 Rp 235)

• Salah satu derivative yang mengikuti tren di induk INDF dapat digunakan sebagai consumer 2^nd liner proxy mulai terlihat menarik secara teknikal untuk akumulasi dengan misi mengetes down-trend-line di Rp 270 & Rp 285.
• Entry: (1) Rp 235, Entry (2) 220, Cut loss point: Rp 215

 

4.   Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.500) (close 30/11 Rp 2.325)

• Pasca koreksi valuasi PER/PBV 2010 emiten batubara dengan market cap terbesar mulai menarik, dengan potensi teknikal rebound untuk mengetes upper end down-trend-line di Rp 2.475.
• Sensitivitas terhadap kenaikan harga batubara merupakan yang tertinggi di sektornya dan cadangan yang cukup besar juga menjadi nilai plus.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.325, Entry (2) Rp 2.250, Cut-loss point: Rp 2.200

 

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)