UPDATE 1-Indonesia's January tin exports gain 8 pct yr/yr

* World's top exporter cashes in on record tin prices

* London tin may hit $50,000/T in 2011 - analyst

Indonesia's refined tin exports rose 8.3 percent in January from the same month in 2010 as exporters rushed to take advantage of record high global tin prices, the trade ministry said on Thursday. 

Falling supply in the last year from Indonesia, the world's top exporter, has driven benchmark London tin prices to record prices, and they reached a new high on Tuesday.

Indonesia shipped 7,334.65 tonnes of refined tin in January, compared with 6,774.57 tonnes a year earlier, trade ministry data showed. 

"Exports were higher compare to January 2010 because exporters rushed to ship the metal because of record prices," said Junaedi, head of mining exports at the trade ministry. 

Benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange traded at $32,000 a tonne at 0829 GMT, well within reach of Tuesday's record high of $32,799 a tonne. 

Indonesia, which supplies nearly 30 percent of the world's tin, produced an estimated 105,000 tonnes in 2010. 

Last month, a senior mining official said Southeast Asia's largest economy will limit annual output to a maximum of 100,000 tonnes if record high prices set off a scramble for the metal. 

"It could be that they are maintaining production at a fairly steady state, and they said earlier they don't want to exceed the 100,000 tonne level," said Credit Agricole analyst Robin Bhar. "These exports could well be coming from metal held in inventory that wasn't exported last year. 

"It's quite a big jump ... Does this really change the dynamics of the markets? Probably not -- Indonesia is not seeing huge hikes in output, and neither is China." 

Earlier this week, Indonesia's state-owned PT Timah , the world's largest integrated tin miner, estimated its refined tin production this year at between 37,000 and 40,000 tonnes, up to eight percent down on last year. 

Tin consultants ITRI last month estimated 2010 global tin consumption at 360,300 tonnes, up 12.5 percent. 

Demand for the metal, used in electronics, plating and lead-free solders, is seen rising in the coming years, while analysts have for months forecast that Indonesian output will fail to keep pace due to a lack of investment in mining. 

In addition, a crackdown on illegal mining since 2006, tighter export regulations, as well as declining onshore reserves and rainy weather, have all hindered production in Indonesia.

"The thing with tin demand, unlike copper demand, you can't easily substitute," added Bhar. "Our forecasts is for around about $28,000-$29,000 (a tonne) average." 

"In terms of trading, we could trade higher towards $40,000-$45,000 -- who knows, we may even see $50,000." Source: Reuters

Russia's Solway confirms $3 bln nickel smelter investment in Indonesia

Russia's Solway Group on Thursday confirmed plans to build an Indonesian nickel smelter with the capacity to produce 50,000 tonnes of the metal a year. 

"We expect to start production in 2014," said Vasily Tsarev, consulting partner for Solway in Indonesia, adding that capacity could be expanded to 80,000 tonnes. 

Hatta Rajasa, Indonesia's chief economic minister said on Monday that the Russian firm planned to invest $3 billion to build the smelter on Halmahera island in eastern Indonesia, a sign of growing interest by investors in the country's mineral processing industry. 

The firm will feed the plant with nickel ore from its concession on the same island, which has confirmed resources of 50 million metric tonnes ore, said Tsarev 

"But resources can range between 110-115 million tonnes when we do further exploration," he said, adding the firm is looking to acquire nickel mines on Sulawesi island. 

Indonesia currently produces ferro-nickel from three smelters operated by Aneka Tambang, and nickel-in-matte from smelters operated by PT Inco Tbk , a unit of Brazil's Vale . 

French's Eramet , the world's sixth-largest nickel producer, has a nickel project on Halmahera in a joint venture with Indonesian state miner PT Aneka Tambang Tbk .

Aside from the nickel smelter, privately owned Solway plans to build a 400 MW coal-fired power plant which will be used to power the smelter, said Tsarev. 

The firm will burn low-quality coal with heating value 5,000-5,500 kcal/kg for the power plan which will be supplied by its coal concession in West Papua, he said. 

Indonesia, the world's top exporter of tin and thermal coal, is keen to increase revenue from the mining sector. Under a new mining and coal law, miners must by 2014 carry out a minimum of processing before exporting, including on nickel. 

Indonesia's mining sector attracted 53 trillion rupiah or $6 billion in bank financing up to September 2010, versus the 14 trillion rupiah that banks loaned to the industry in 2006, central bank figures show, despite uncertainties over the country's new mining law. 

Foreign direct investment as a whole is growing into Southeast Asia's biggest economy, as investors eye its mineral wealth, booming domestic consumption and increased stability, despite concerns over rampant corruption, red tape and inadequate infrastructure. Source: Reuters

Bumi expects 2013 coal output over 110 mln T

PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Asia's largest thermal coal exporter, expects to produce more than 110 million tonnes in 2013, or 64 percent higher than this year's forecast output, a company director said on Thursday.


"Expansion projects to achieve the 2013 target are already under execution," Dileep Srivastava, a Bumi director, told Reuters. "The strategic principle we are adopting is to build for over capacity across our entire coal supply chain."

Bumi will become a unit of Bumi Plc, to be listed in London after a $3 billion deal with Nathaniel Rothschild's Vallar Plc in November. Source: Reuters

Copper Rebounds From Two-Week Low as U.S. Growth Signals Increasing Demand

Copper rebounded from a two-week low as improving U.S. economic data signaled that the recovery will continue to strengthen and lift metals demand. 

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in February at the fastest pace in seven years, and an index of U.S. leading indicators rose in January for a seventh straight month, separate reports showed today. The metal has jumped 38 percent in the past year as miners struggled to keep pace with increasing global consumption. 

“Copper has good fundamentals, and the uptrend in prices is still intact,” said Rich Ilczyszyn, a senior strategist at Lind-Waldock, a broker in Chicago. 

Copper futures for May delivery rose 1.45 cents, or 0.3 percent, to close at $4.497 a pound at 1:24 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price touched $4.4275, the lowest for a most-active contract since Jan. 31. 

Futures touched a record $4.6575 on Feb. 15. The metal will make new highs within a month, Ilczyszyn said. 

The global copper market’s surplus narrowed to 20,000 metric tons last year from 410,000 tons in 2009, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said yesterday. The average output of the world’s 10 largest publicly traded mining companies fell 4 percent in 2010 from a year earlier as ore grades declined, RBS Global Banking and Markets said in a report last week. 

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months dropped $37, or 0.4 percent, to $9,805 a ton ($4.45 a pound). 

Tin fell 2.6 percent to $31,650 a ton on the LME, the biggest decline since Nov. 22. Lead and nickel also dropped. Aluminum and zinc gained. Source: Bloomberg

Indonesian Tin Output May Slump, Executive Forecasts

Tin output from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter, may drop for a second year as flooding caused by a La Nina weather event cuts the supply of ore, according to an industry executive from the top-producing region. 

Refined-tin output may total 60,000 to 70,000 metric tons this year, Johan Murod, a director at PT Bangka Belitung Timah Sejahtera, a group of eight smelters, said in an interview. That compares with a Jan. 6 government forecast for output of 90,000 tons this year and last year’s production of 78,965 tons. 

The forecast plunge in output may exacerbate a global shortfall in the metal used in packaging and as solder, further boosting prices that surged to a record earlier this week. Standard Bank Plc’s Leon Westgate said last month that tin has the biggest supply-demand imbalance of all base metals, with “significant deficits” forecast for 2011 and 2012. 

“The weather anomaly has caused heavy rains since the middle of last year and there’s no sign it will stop anytime soon,” Murod said yesterday in Pangkal Pinang, Bangka Belitung province. The rains flooded mines, with miners able to work only two or three days a week instead of the usual six, he said. “Sometimes they cannot work at all.” 

Tin was the best performer of the six main base metals on the London Metal Exchange last year, jumping 59 percent, as supplies from China, Indonesia and Africa fell. The three-month contract peaked at $32,799 a ton on Feb. 15 and was unchanged at $32,500 at 3:03 p.m. in Singapore, reversing an earlier drop. Malaysia Smelting Corp. has said the metal may jump to $40,000.

‘Quite Substantial’

An output forecast that’s 30,000 tons “lower than earlier government estimates does seem to be quite substantial,” said Xin Yi Chen, a Singapore-based analyst at Barclays Capital. “To the extent that Indonesian production does reduce by 30,000 tons from what has been forecast, it is clear that the price signal will have to rise further to ration demand.” 

Murod’s comments add to signs that the La Nina, which has also caused heavy rains in Australia, is hurting commodity output from Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. The rains have been blamed for reduced production of coal, palm oil and rubber, driving prices higher, with rubber at a record in Tokyo. 

“No one can precisely predict the weather, it’s just something that’s out of our reach,” Murod said, forecasting that prices may trade between $32,000 and $35,000 per ton this year. A new law that restricts small-scale miners to working only river banks had also reduced the supply of ore to 30 private smelters in Bangka Belitung, Murod said.

Global Deficit

There was a 14,000-ton global deficit last year, the biggest since 2004, Standard Bank’s Westgate wrote in a note last month that correctly forecast a jump in prices to more than $30,000. Output from the small producers in Indonesia has been hit by the 2009 law that requires miners to obtain permits, as well as by crackdowns on illegal output, the report said. 

Refined-tin output from Bangka Belitung Sejahtera may slump to 12,000 tons in 2011 from about 20,000 tons last year because of limited ore supply from small-scale miners, Murod said. 

Output from PT Timah, Indonesia’s largest producer, may drop for a fourth year in 2011 to between 37,000 tons and 40,000 tons as bad weather disrupts mining, Corporate Secretary Abrun Abubakar said last month. The company said on Feb. 7 it produced 40,413 tons last year from 45,086 tons in 2009. 

Output at PT Koba Tin fell to 6,900 tons last year from 7,337 tons in 2009, Wachid Usman, president director of state- owned Timah, said Feb. 7. Timah owns a 25 percent stake in Koba Tin and Malaysia Smelting holds the rest. 

Tin may rally to as much as $40,000 per ton as global supply may lag behind demand until 2013, Malaysia Smelting Group Chief Executive Officer Mohd. Ajib Anuar said last month. Demand was climbing, new mines may take longer than expected to start up and ore quality may drop, Anuar said.Source: Bloomberg

Volume Ekspor Timah Batangan Januari Melonjak

Ekspor timah batangan selama bulan Januari 2011 mencapai 7.334,65 ton dengan nilai US$ 185,27 juta. Volumenya lebih rendah namun nilainya lebih tinggi jika dibandingkan Desember 2010.

"Karena harga sedang tinggi," kata Kepala Sub Direktorat Ekspor Barang Tambang Kementerian Perdagangan Djunaedi di Jakarta, Kamis (17/2).

Menurut data Kementerian Perdagangan, ekspor timah batangan selama Desember 2010 sebanyak 7.722,01 ton dengan nilai US$ 187,75 juta. Sementara bila dibandingkan dengan periode Januari 2010 yang sebanyak 6.774,57 ton dengan nilai US$ 102,90 juta, ekspor timah batangan selama Januari 2011 lebih tinggi dalam nilai dan volume.

Menurut Djunaedi, ekspor timah batangan selama Januari 2011 dilakukan oleh 34 eksportir terdaftar dengan negara tujuan Singapura, Malaysia, Jepang, Korea, AS, Belanda, Thailand, Turki, Taiwan, India, Australia, dan Filipina.

Ekspor timah batangan paling banyak dilakukan ke Singapura (5.688,81 ton), disusul Malaysia (714,99 ton) dan Jepang (412,09 ton). Sedangkan negara yang paling sedikit mengimpor timah batangan dari Indonesia tercatat Filipina (15,25 ton), Australia (20,53 ton) dan India (24,30 ton).

Lebih lanjut Djunaedi menjelaskan, pemerintah sampai sekarang masih membahas penataan kembali aturan perdagangan timah melalui revisi Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan (Permendag) Nomor 4 tahun 2007 tentang ekspor timah batangan.

Revisi peraturan menteri perdagangan itu dilakukan dengan mengacu pada undang-undang nomor 4 tahun 2009 tentang pertambangan mineral dan batubara (Minerba). "Itu ditujukan untuk mencegah perdagangan, ekspor dan pertambangan timah secara ilegal," katanya.

Usul yang mengemuka dalam pembahasan revisi aturan ekspor timah, menurut Djunaedi, antara lain perlunya pengaturan perdagangan timah antar provinsi dan pembuatan laporan surveyor dalam bongkar muat barang tambang tersebut.

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 18 Februari 2011

Berikut adalah rekomendasi dari dua sekuritas untuk perdagangan Jumat, 18 Februari 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan Kamis (17/2), IHSG masih bergerak sideways dan ditutup naik 17 poin (0,51%) ke level 3.434. Asing kemarin melakukan net buying Rp 411 miliar dengan sektor yang paling banyak dimasuki adalah otomotif dan perbankan.  Secara teknikal,  indeks masih berada dalam fase konsolidasi. Sedangkan pada perdagangan hari ini, indeks akan bergerak di kisaran 3.346-3.489. Cermati ASII, BBTN dan INTP.

2. Erdhika Sekuritas

Di tengah penguatan indeks kemarin, tiga sektor melemah yakni, perkebunan, konsumsi dan keuangan masing-masing 1,56%, 0,93% dan 0,17%. Hari ini indeks diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran 3.419-3.456. INTP, SMGR, MNCN, JSMR menjadi saham-saham pilihan kami.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 18 Februari 2011

Untuk Jumat, 18 Februari 2011, HD Capital merekomendasikan Krakatau Steel (KRAS), United Tractor (UNTR), London Sumatera (LSIP), dan Garuda Indonesia (GIAA) untuk dibeli.

BUY: (KRAS, UNTR, LSIP, GIAA)

• Penutupan IHSG di atas down-trend-line 3.430 selain memberikan sinyal buy ke daily stochastic dan MACD, membuka ruang lebih keatas dan merubah arah short term trend dari turun ke naik dengan target atas pertama breakout channel di 3.550-3.600.

• IHSG close (17-02) 3.435.640(+19.309/+0.53%) (Val.Rp.2.9T)

• Support: 3.430-3.380-3.250, Resistance: 3,475-3,550-3,620

 

Stock picks:

1.      United Tractors (UNTR): (BUY) (target: Rp 24.200) (close 17/02 Rp 23.100)

• Beberapa komponen untuk menaikkan proyeksi laba pada 2011 hingga 33% seperti penjualan alat berat ke sektor konstruksi dan mining serta kontribusi dari unit batubara Pama, serta sentimen positif dari kenaikan harga batubara dan minyak yang melebihi rata-rata 2010 lalu belum sepenuhnya tecermin dalam harga saham.

• Entry (1) Rp 22.500, Entry (2) Rp 21.700, Cut loss point: Rp 20.900

 

2.   Krakatau Steel (KRAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 1.100) (Close 17/02 Rp 1.050)

• Pelaku pasar mulai antisipasi para produsen baja yang diperkirakan akan menaikkan harga jual baja seiring dengan kenaikan harga jual rata-rata batubara (ASP).

• Hal ini diperkirakan dapat menaikan operating profit margin KRAS dimana kenaikan harga jual akan offset cost produksi.

• Entry (1) Rp 1.040, Entry (2) Rp 1.020, Cut loss point: Rp 1000

 

3.   London Sumatra (LSIP) (BUY): (Target: Rp 11.300) (Close 17/01 Rp 10.600)

• Beberapa katalis positif seperti optimisme proyeksi kenaikan harga jual CPO 2011 yang naik dari RM 3,500 ke RM 4,000 akibat cuaca buruk dan produksi minyak kedelai yang turun, land bank untuk ekspansi 5 tahun kedepan, kontribusi dari karet, serta valuasi PER 2011F 14x yang kompetitif belum dicerna oleh harga saham yang sempat terkoreksi ke level oversold (jenuh jual) ini.

• Rekomen akumulasi untuk technical rebound

• Entry: (1) Rp 10.600, Entry (2) 10.300, Cut loss point: Rp 10.150

 

4.   Garuda Indonesia (GIAA) (BUY) (Target: Rp 650) (close 17/01 Rp 570)

• Bila mengacu pada harga median (tengah) pasar gelap yang teciptakan sebelum listing dari tertinggi Rp 800 hingga terendah Rp 500, maka nilai wajar Garuda menurut mekanisme pasar seharusnya di Rp 650 sehingga ada kesempatan untuk melakukan arbitrase di sini

• Entry: (1) Rp 570, Entry (2) Rp 550, Cut-loss point: Rp 540

 

 

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)