Indonesia's finmin says Q1 GDP growth seen at 6.5 pct y/y

Indonesia's finance minister, Agus Martowardojo, said on Monday the country's GDP growth in the first quarter this year probably reached 6.5 percent from a year ago.

Indonesia's government aims to have 6.4 percent growth this year. Source: Reuters

India's Punj Lloyd unit buys 50 pct in Indonesia coal mine

Indian engineering and construction firm Punj Lloyd said on Monday its unit, Sembawang Development, had acquired a 50 percent stake in a thermal coal mine company in central Kalimantan, Indonesia.

The mining firm holds reserves currently estimated at 134 million tonnes, it said in a statement.

Punj did not disclose financial details of the transaction. Source: Reuters

Vallar Says Expects to Complete Bumi Stake Increase in May

Vallar Plc (VAA), Nathaniel Rothschild’s investment vehicle, expects to complete a stake increase in PT Bumi Resources of “close to” 50 percent through a share-swap deal by May 10, the company’s executives said. 

Vallar, which completed the acquisition of a 25 percent stake in Bumi last month, will offer to swap 57.7 shares of Indonesia’s largest coal producer for a share of Vallar, Daren Morris, a co-founder of Vallar, said in Jakarta today. 

“Under an ideal scenario in an ideal world we would end up owning close to 50 percent of Bumi, which would really cement the relationship between Bumi and Vallar,” Rothschild, co- chairman of the Jersey, Channel Islands-based company, told reporters. “I think from a stock market perspective the U.K. investors would like to see that.” 

Vallar agreed in November to invest $3 billion in Bumi and PT Berau Coal Energy in a stock and cash transaction to tap access to a growing mining sector in Indonesia, the world’s largest thermal-coal exporter, amid rising demand for the fuel from India and China. Vallar will be renamed Bumi Plc and is expected to be listed on the FTSE 100 Index (UKX) on the London Stock Exchange in May, Morris said. 

Bumi is planning to repay the first tranche of debt to China Investment Corp. ahead of schedule in October this year, while continuing its business relations with the Chinese sovereign wealth fund, Rothschild said. 

“I think given the Chinese appetite for resources, they have strong desire to build on the relationship they have already got with this group,” he said. “The level of leverage in Bumi is not an issue at all; the issue obviously is the cost of debt could be a lot lower.” 

Bumi plans to repay early $600 million of debt due October 2013 to CIC as part of the company’s aim to reduce debt by $1 billion this year, Director Dileep Srivastava said Feb. 7.

Tender Offer

Vallar, which completed acquiring a 75 percent stake in Berau Coal April 8, may offer this month to buy an additional stake in the company at 540 rupiah (6 U.S. cents) apiece, Morris said. 

Vallar may keep a 5 percent stake of Berau Coal free-float in the market after the tender offer and is planning to increase it to 20 percent within the next two years, to comply with Indonesian regulations, he said. 

Vallar agreed to buy 26.2 billion shares of Berau Coal at 540 rupiah each or for a total of 14.1 trillion rupiah from PT Bukit Mutiara, PT Recapital Securities, which helped arrange the share sale, said in a statement to the stock exchange on April 6.

Bakrie’s Stake

Bakrie Group, the owner of Bumi, and Bukit Mutiara, received shares in Vallar as part of the transactions. Bakrie Group now owns about 54.6 percent and Bukit Mutiara has about 13.2 percent in the company, Vallar said in a statement April 8. 

Rothschild was most recently co-chairman of New York-based hedge-fund firm Atticus Capital LLC and the only son of British financier Lord Jacob Rothschild. Vallar raised 707.2 million pounds ($1.2 billion) in an initial public offering on the London Stock Exchange in July. 

Bumi was unchanged at 3,250 rupiah at 1:46 p.m. in Jakarta trading. The stock has risen about 7 percent this year, compared with the 1.3 percent gain on the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index. (JCI) Berau fell 1.8 percent to 550 rupiah. Source: Reuters

Dua Bulan, Kelompok Bank BUMN Cetak Laba Rp 5 Triliun

Kelompok bank BUMN berhasil meraup laba bersih Rp 5,08 triliun pada Februari 2011, naik signifikan dari posisi Januari 2011 sebesar Rp 2,2 triliun. Kelompok bank BUMN ini terdiri atas Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Bank Mandiri (BMRI), Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI), dan Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN).

Demikian statistik perbankan Indonesia edisi Februari 2011 yang diterbitkan BI hari ini. Jika kelompok bank BUMN ini dalam 2 bulan berhasil mencetak laba Rp 5,08 triliun maka dalam 12 bulan (sepanjang tahun ini) kelompok bank ini bakal mencetak laba Rp 30 triliun lebih (6 dikalikan Rp 5 triliun). Padahal, sepanjang 2010, perolehan laba kelompok bank BUMN tercatat sebesar Rp 22,76 triliun.

Sedangkan jika mengacu pada publikasi laporan keuangan bank-bank BUMN untuk tahun buku 2010, BRI menjadi bank peraih laba terbesar. Berikut urutannya:

1. BRI     Rp 11,47 triliun
2. BMRI   Rp 9,2 triliun
3. BBNI   Rp 4,1 triliun
4. BBTN  Rp 915 miliar
TOTAL    Rp  25,68 triliun.

Artinya ada perbedaan antara statistik perbankan BI dengan laporan keuangan tiap bank yang sudah diaudit. Biasanya, statistik perbankan BI dihitung dari laporan manajemen bank dan sifatnya sementara karena belum diaudit dan diverifikasi secara tepat, sehingga angkanya lebih konservatif dari kenyataan.

Vallar says Recapital may sell its 15 pct stake in Berau Coal

Recapital, an Indonesian private equity player, may sell its 15 percent stake in Berau Coal within two years, said Darren Morris, co-founder of London-listed Vallar, on Monday.
Indonesia's Bakrie Group owns stakes in Vallar and Berau Coal.

Bakrie & Brothers told Reuters last month that the Jersey-based Vallar would increase its stake in Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter Bumi Resources to up to 51 percent by June this year. Source: Reuters

Bumi says revises up 2011 revenue to at least $5.3 bln

Bumi Resources , Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, is revising up its forecast for 2011's average selling price to at least $80 per tonne, boosting its revenue forecast to $5.3 billion, a director at the firm said on Monday.

The coal miner previously expected its 2011 revenue to reach $5.1 billion from an average selling price of $77 per tonne.

"A level execeeding $80 per tonne is looking eminently achievable," Dileep Srivastava, a Bumi director, told Reuters.

The firm has said previously it expects 2011 coal sales of 66 million tonnes with production of 67 million tonnes. Source: Reuters

Barito Rancang Kuasi Reorganisasi

PT Barito Pacific Tbk berencana melakukan kuasi reorganisasi untuk menghapus akumulasi rugi di masa-masa lalu. Dengan melakukan kuasi reorganisasi, struktur permodalan Barito akan menjadi lebih kuat dan akan bisa membagikan dividen tahun depan.

Agenda kuasi reorganisasi akan dimintakan persetujuan dalam rapat umum pemegang saham (RUPS) Luar Biasa pada Kamis, 12 Mei 2011, di Wisma Barito Pacific Lantai 2 Podium. Agenda RUPS-LB lainnya adalah perubahan pasal 3 anggaran dasar perseroan tentang maksud dan tujuan serta kegiatan usaha.

Bertempat yang sama, perseroan akan menggelar public expose telah agenda RUPSLB.
 

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 11 April 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk hari Senin, 11 April 2011.

BUY:  ASII, UNSP, CMNP,BUMI

• Beberapa sentiment positif seperti kenaikan peringkat utang oleh Standard and Poor's ke BB+ dari BB dengan outlook positif dan penguatan rupiah yang berlanjut bisa menjadi pendorong rally di IHSG pasca profit taking Jumat kemarin.

• IHSG close (08-04) 3.741.11 (+12.81/+0.48%) (Val.Rp.2.9T)

• Support: 3.730-3.675-3.550, Resistance: 3.780-3.850-3.900

Stock picks:

1.   Bakrie Sumatra (UNSP): (BUY) (Target koreksi: Rp 380) (close 08/04 Rp 360)

• Pasca peningkatan laba di laporan keuangan rasio PER BTEL 2011 berubah dari 36x ke 6x (setelah sebelumnya mengalami kerugian di 2009), sehingga valuasinya menjadi menarik di tengah emiten CPO lainnya yang bermain di PER 10x.

• Pelaku pasar sekarang optimistis terhadap perkembangan laporan keuangan Q1 2011

• Entry: (1) Rp 355, Entry (2) Rp 345, Cut loss point: Rp 330

2.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target:Rp 58.000) (Close 08/04 Rp 56.750)

• Penjualan mobil bulan Maret yang naik 25% dari periode tahun sebelumnya dan motor 17% pasca melambatnya penjualan di Februari dapat mendongrak kembali ASII pasca profit taking yang terjadi Jumat lalu karena belum tercermin dalam pergerakan harga.

• Entry: (1) Rp 56.500, Entry (2) 56.250, Cut loss point: Rp 55.800

3.   Citra Marga (CMNP) (BUY): (Target: Rp 1.250) (Close 08/04 Rp 1.160)

• Pemain jalan toll Jakarta dalam sector infrastructure ini mempunyai profitabilitas dan valuasi yang jauh lebih untung dan murah daripada Jasa Marga (JSMR) sehingga potensi terjadi upside adjustment dari proyeksi earnings 2011 & 2012.

• Peningkatan penjualan mobil 3 bulan terakhir juga positif untuk pendapatan toll kedepan

• Entry: (1) Rp 1.140, Entry: (2) Rp 1.120, Cut loss point: Rp 1.100

4.    Bumi Resources (BUMI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 3.450) (Close 08/04 Rp 3.250)

• Selain beberapa corporate action dan skema de-leveraging (restruktrurisasi utang) yang dapat meningkatkan laba persero, pasar mulai melihat dengan arah positif hasil kinerja laporan keuangan Q1 2011 yang akan datang.

• Entry: (1) Rp 3.200, Entry (2) Rp 3.050, Cut loss point: Rp 2.950

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)