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Thursday, December 23, 2010

BTN sees property prices, profits up in 2011


* Net profit growth seen up 50 pct in 2011

* Loan growth seen rising 25-30 pct

* Bank to raise 3 trln rph via bonds, assets securitisation

Indonesia's top mortgage lender, PT Bank Tabungan Negara , sees a government commitment to allow foreigners to own local property next year as an opportunity for aggressive expansion, the company's CEO said on Thursday.

Indonesia's property sector could attract between $3 billion to $6
billion in new investment if parliament completes the passage of a law
lifting restrictions on foreign property ownership in Southeast Asia's
biggest economy, industry players say.

"I can see property prices jumping, especially in the cities, said said
Iqbal Latanro, BTN's chief executive officer, in an interview at his
22nd floor Jakarta office, overlooking the presidential palace.

"The only problem for most Indonesians is low buying-power, but as the
economy is growing and the central bank's rate still at its lowest
level, then that problem is slowly lifting."

BTN, the smallest of four Indonesian state banks but the country's
biggest mortgage lender, plans to open new 200 branches across the
archipelago next year in a bid to attract more deposits, Latanro said.

BTN would seek to raise about 2 trillion rupiah via bonds and 1 trillion
rupiah through asset-securitisation to fuel the expansion.

RAISE ASSETS, PROFIT FORECAST

"As the economy grows, consumption-type loans also flourish --
especially for housing," said Latanro. "Therefore we have increased our
loan growth target to between 20 to 30 percent next year, with asset
growth about 15-20 percent."

Latanro said BTN expects profits to jump about 50 percent next year.

The bank's 2009 net profit was 490.45 billion rupiah and is expected to
hit about 790 billion rupiah in 2010 -- up 60 percent this year and in
line with forecasts by StarMine's SmartEstimate, a consensus that gives
more weight to recent forecasts by top-rated analysts.

Latanro's 2011 profit forecast of 1.2 trillion rupiah, however, 50
percent up, is higher than StarMine's estimate of 1.1 trillion rupiah.

"We aim to maintain our net interest margin at around 5 to 6 percent
next year amid tightening competition in the mortgage segment," he said.
 
Shares of BTN, which went public a year ago raising 1.9 trillion rupiah, have risen 94 percent this year -- easily beating a broader market that is nevertheless up 40 percent.

Latanro, a 25 year veteran of BTN and avid golfer, also said the bank was in talks with several middle-eastern investors to develop its shariah unit. 


Indonesia has been a darling of emerging market investors this year, although wariness remains over what steps the government may take to stop volatility caused by inflows of hot money into the debt and equity market. ($1 = 9042.000 Indonesian Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Matahari Says Suitors May Complete Due Diligence in January

Four companies interested in investing in PT Matahari Putra Prima, Indonesia’s biggest retailer by market value, may complete their due diligence in the first week of January, a spokesman said. 
 
“We expected them to finish before the end of this month, but I think it may be done in the first week of January,” Danny Kojongian, Matahari’s director of corporate communications, said by phone in Jakarta today. 

Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit is facilitating discussions with four companies, including South Korea’s Lotte Shopping Co., that may “explore the modes of investment” that may include a stake sale, Matahari said in a statement Dec. 3. 

“We’re still waiting for Merrill’s review,” of the companies, Kojongian said today.
A purchase would give the buyer control over the biggest rival to Carrefour SA in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, which is forecast to expand at least 6 percent this year. Matahari’s hypermarket business has annual sales of about $1 billion that will probably grow 22 percent this year, the statement said. 

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and French retailer Casino Guichard- Perrachon SA are among the companies that have looked at the assets, people familiar with the deal said in November.
Matahari, which means “sun” in Indonesian, has 51 hypermarkets in Southeast Asia’s most populous nation, where domestic consumption accounts for two-thirds of the economy.Source: Bloomberg

Riset Agung Pomomoro oleh Indo Premier Sekuritas

Riset Agung Pomomoro oleh Indo Premier Sekuritas. Target harga Rp 460.
 
Riset Agung Podomoro Oleh Indo Premier Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Riset Arwana Citramulia oleh Sinarmas Sekuritas

Riset Arwana Citramulia oleh Sinarmas Sekuritas. Target harga untuk 2011 sebesar Rp 410.
 
Riset Arwana Citramulia Oleh Sinarmas Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Riset Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) oleh NISP Sekuritas. Target harga Rp 5.725 dengan lini bisnis andalan Bogasari (tepung terigu) dan perkebunan kelapa sawit.

Riset Indofood Sukses Makmur Oleh NISP Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Riset Indofood Consumer Branding Product (ICBP) oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset Indofood Consumer Branding Product (ICBP) oleh NISP Sekuritas. Target harga Rp 5.700.
 
Riset Indofood CBP Oleh NISP Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Riset Industri Semen oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas

Riset Industri Semen oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas. Target harga Semen Gresik Rp 11.000 dan Indocement Rp 19.000 dan menjadi pilihan utama Ciptadana untuk dikoleksi.
 
Riset Industri Semen Oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Riset Mitra Adi Perkasa oleh OSK

Riset Mitra Adi Perkasa oleh OSK. Target harga Rp 2.925 dengan rekomendasi beli.
 
Riset Mitra Adi Perkasa Oleh OSK                                                                                                                                   

Riset IPO Megapolitan Development oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas

Riset IPO Megapolitan Development oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas.
 
Riset IPO Megapolitan Oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas                                                                                                                                   

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 23 Desember 2010


Berikut rekomendasi dari dua sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Kamis, 23 Desember 2010.
 
1. E-Trading Securities
Pada perdagangan kemarin IHSG ditutup melemah 16 poin (-0.46%) di tengah pasar reguler yang kurang ramai.  Namun, asing mulai mengakumulasi saham kembali dengan net buying sebesar 239 milliar di sektor coal mining, automotive dan banking. Dari chart terlihat RSI kembali melemah ke garis 50% tetapi belum keluar dari area bullish dan dari stochastic juga terlihat masih uptrend. Hari ini IHSG masih akan bergerak di 3.565-3.660

2. Trimegah Securities
IHSG gagal melanjutkan penguatan kemarin dan ditutup terpangkas 0,5%. Meskipun demikian, dengan penutupan yang mampu bertahan di atas EMA-50 yang juga merupakan level 223,6% Fibonacci Extension, serta fast moving oscillator yang tetap bergerak dalam tren naik, peluang indeks untuk kembali menguat masih terbuka. IHSG hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.604-3.652, dengan saham pilihan KLBF dan SMGR. 






Rekomendasi HD Capital, 23 Desember 2010

Untuk Kamis, 23 Desember 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihan untuk dibeli, yakni Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID), Gudang Garam (GGRM), dan PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA).

BUY: (BBRI, DOID,GGRM, PTBA)
  • Penurunan pasar akan tertahan oleh akumulasi menjelang January effect tahun depan.
ke depan.
  • IHSG close (22-12) 3.620.74 (-16.762/-0.25%) (Val.Rp.4.1T)
  • Support:3.570-3.520, Resistance: 3.670-3.770-3.800

Stock picks:

1.    Bank BRI (BBRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 10.850) (close 22/12 Rp 10.300)
  • Outlook jangka panjang yang masih positif seperti pertumbuhan nilai aset, pinjaman tersalurkan, dan posisi di pangsa pasar yang lebih kuat pasca -akuisisi Bank Agro dapat offset penuranan selama ini yang disebabkan oleh turunnya pertumbuhan kredit untuk sementara di Q3 2010 akibat pembayaran utang oleh debitor.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 10.200, Entry (2) Rp 10.000, Cut loss point: Rp 9.800

2.   Delta Dunia (DOID) (BUY): (Target: Rp 1.570) (Close 22/12 Rp 1.460)
  • Pasar mulai price in efek synergy dengan BUMI-Berau serta secara technical memang saham ini mulai unjuk gigi dengan beberapa indicator seperti MACD dan stochastics harian memberikan buy signal untuk perubahan tren jangka pendek
  • Entry (1) Rp 1.430, (2) Rp 1.370, Cut loss point: Rp 1.300

3.   Gudang Garam (GGRM) (BUY): (Target: Rp 41.000) (close 22/12 Rp 38.750)
  • Rencana menaikan harga rokok 8% di 2011 dan volume penjualan yang dapat terserap oleh pangsa pasar luar Jawa yang menikmati pendapatan dari naiknya harga komoditas menjadi katalis positif.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 38.000, Entry: (2) Rp 37.000, Cut loss point: Rp 36.000

4.    Bukit Asam (PTBA): (BUY) (Target: Rp 22.300) (Close 22/12 Rp 21.600)
  • Pembangunan rel kereta api rel ganda di yang dimulai dapat mendongrak pendapatan dari efisiensi transportasi sebesar 2-3x, cadangan besar yang belum sepenuhnya di re-valuasi atas naiknya harga batubara selama ini, kontak end user domesktik ke PLN dapat menarik investor untuk melakukan bargain hunting.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 21.200, Entry (2) Rp 20.700, Cut loss point: Rp 20.400

Dibuat oleh:
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)