Perusahaan Gas Negara Q4 net profit down 15 pct

Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) , Indonesia's biggest gas distributor, said its fourth quarter net profit fell 15 percent, as a shortage gas supplies affected its earnings.

The firm's fourth quarter net profit was 1.55 trillion rupiah ($178 million) compared with 1.83 trillion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations showed based on published full-year and nine month results.

PGN, which said that it revenues will remain flat this year due to limited fresh gas supplies, reported a flat full year 2010 net profit of 6.24 trillion rupiah.

That compared with analysts' forecasts for 2010 net profit to rise 6 percent to 6.58 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S estimates.
PGN shares rose 0.7 percent on Thursday after the results, but have fallen 13 percent this year. Its shares rose 13 percent in 2010, underperforming the 46 percent rally in the Jakarta index. Source: Reuters 

United Tractors to raise $700mln via rights issue this yr

* To issue 403.26 million of new shares

* To offer at 15,050 rph per share, or 44.5 pct discount from Wednesday closing

* Says will use 90 pct of funds for expansion

Indonesia's United Tractors plans to raise 6.1 trillion rupiah ($699.62 million) via a rights issue this year to fund its expansion plans, the country's biggest heavy equipment provider said in a statement on Thursday. 

The firm, controlled by Indonesia's largest listed firm Astra International , will offer 403.26 million of new shares with the price offering at 15,050 rupiah per share, or representing a 44.5 percent discount to Wednesday's closing price. 

The last day of the offering has been set for May 30. 

United Tractors said it plans to use most of the funds to finance the expansion of its coal mining and coal contractor business as well as power plant opportunities. ($1 = 8719.000 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Garuda Plans to Buy 18 Sub-100 Seat Planes to Expand Routes

PT Garuda Indonesia, the flag carrier that raised $530 million in a January initial public offering, may buy 18 planes with fewer than 100 seats to expand services to areas without airports for larger aircraft.

Garuda plans to buy the planes by 2015 with delivery starting next year, Elisa Lumbantoruan, the airline’s finance director, said in Jakarta today. A request for proposals will be issued next month and announcement on the tender is expected in June, he said, without naming prospective suppliers.

“We want to be able to land on shorter runways,” Lumbantoruan said at a press briefing. “We want to fly tourists to regions around Bali.”

Garuda, which today reported net income fell 48 percent in 2010, intends to use the smaller planes to access more domestic routes among Indonesia’s 17,000 islands that span 3,200 miles (5,150 kilometers), the distance from Florida to Alaska. The carrier wants to “bypass” larger airports in Jakarta, Surabaya and Bali’s Denpasar by offering direct flights among smaller regional airports, Lumbantoruan said.

Capital Spending

Garuda, which raised $4.8 trillion rupiah in an initial public offering in January, plans $250 million in capital spending this year, as much as $130 million of which will go to purchasing new planes, Chief Executive Officer Emirsyah Satar said. The company also plans to add routes this year to Taipei and member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, he said.

The carrier also plans to lease six Airbus 320-200s for its Citilink service this year. The mainline carrier will add two A330-200s and nine Boeing Co. 737-800 NG in the year, Lumbantoruan said.

Garuda has pared flights to Tokyo as concerns about radiation leaks at a tsunami-stricken nuclear-power plant north of the capital and electricity shortages damp travel demand. The carrier will combine two separate services to the Japanese capital from Jakarta and Denpasar into one flight starting April 5 until April 22, Lumbantoruan said.

Garuda dropped 3.6 percent to 530 rupiah as of the 4 p.m. close of Jakarta trading.

Net income fell to 515.5 billion rupiah ($59 million) from 1 trillion rupiah last year as operating costs increased, outstripping a 9 percent gain in revenue to 19.5 trillion rupiah.

Fuel costs will probably rise again this year, Satar said. Source: Bloomberg

Bank Rakyat Indonesia Q4 net profit jumps

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Indonesia's second-biggest lender by assets, fourth quarter of 2010 net profit rose 139 percent, driven by strong loan growth, a bank's statement obtained by Reuters showed.

The firm's fourth quarter net profit was 4.81 trillion rupiah ($551 million), compared with 2.01 trillion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations showed based on published full-year and nine month results.

State-owned Bank Rakyat, which aims to slash its dividend payout ratio to only 5 percent from 30 percent, reported a full-year 2010 net profit of 11.47 trillion rupiah. That compared with a net profit of 7.31 trillion rupiah a year before.

Analysts had forecast full-year 2010 net profit up 24 percent to 9.04 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters' Starmine SmartEstimate.

Bank Rakyat, which specializes in microlending to farmers and small businesses in Southeast Asia's largest economy, saw 2010 full-year net interest income up 43 percent to 32.89 trillion rupiah, from 23.05 trillion rupiah a year earlier.

The lender's shares rose 0.9 percent on Wednesday ahead of the result, and have gained 2.9 percent this year to outperform the Jakarta index's .JKSE 1.7 percent drop. ($1 = 8722.500 Indonesian Rupiahs). Source: Reuters

Telkom Q4 net profit rises 24 pct

* Q4 net profit at 2.6 trln rph vs 2.1 trln rph yr ago

* FY 2010 net profit up 1.2 percent to 11.53 trln rph

Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom) , Indonesia's biggest telecommunications firm, reported fourth quarter net profit rose 24 percent as its data and internet businesses boosted revenue to make up for low growth in mobile subscriptions. 

Telkom's mobile unit Telkomsel, 35 percent owned by SingTel , expects mobile subscriber growth at up to 13 percent in 2011, after subscriber revenue only grew 2 percent in 2010.

The firm's fourth quarter 2010 net profit was 2.6 trillion rupiah ($298 million), compared with 2.1 trillion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations showed based on published full-year and nine month results. 

State-controlled Telkom reported full year 2010 net profit of 11.53 trillion rupiah. That compared with a net profit of 11.4 trillion rupiah a year before, and analysts' forecasts for 2010 of 11.58 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters' Starmine SmartEstimate. 

Telkom, which has set aside 2 trillion rupiah for a share buyback programme, saw 2010 revenue up 1.4 percent to 68.63 trillion rupiah. 

Telkom has said it is re-evaluating a fixed-wireless deal with PT Bakrie Telecom worth nearly $1 billion as it wants a majority stake. Bakrie Telecom's parent Bakrie & Bros told Reuters this week it was frustated with the slow pace of the deal and could speak to other suitors. 

Telkom is still in talks to acquire a majority stake in Cambodia's largest mobile operator CamGSM in a deal that could be worth more than $500 million, though the firm said last year it expected the deal to be completed by the first quarter. 

The planned deal would be Telkom's first major purchase overseas, and would signal further consolidation as fast-growing Southeast Asian mobile markets mature. 

The firm's shares rose 0.7 percent by 0337 GMT on Thursday after the result, but have fallen 8.8 percent this year to underperform the Jakarta index's 1.7 percent drop. ($1 = 8719 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Bumi Q4 profit beats forecasts, rivals

* Q4 net profit at $115.58 mln vs Q4 '09 loss of $169.77 mln

 * 2010 net up 63 pct to $311.18 mln, vs $270 mln consensus

 * Profits seen doubling in 2011 on lower debt cost-CLSA

Indonesia's Bumi Resources  , Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, on Thursday

posted fourth quarter net profit of $115.58 million, a turnaround after a net loss a year earlier as sales climbed.      

Bumi's positive result stood out among other local coal miners that saw earnings plunge after heavy rainfall hurt production, including No.2 miner Adaro Energy that saw a 43 percent slide in quarterly net profit.

         

"Further upside to earnings and our forecast will come from repayment of the first tranche of CIC debt in August, which stands to save $100 million in annual interest payments," said Nick Cashmore of CLSA, in a note to clients after the result.      

Bumi, which sees coal prices and demand going up in the medium term after Japan's recent earthquake and tsunami, posted fourth quarter net profit of $115.58 million, compared with a loss of $169.77 million in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations based on published full-year and nine month

results showed.      

         

The jump from a year ago came after Bumi was hit in the fourth quarter 2009 by high charges for mine stripping. Investors were also concerned last year about debt levels and the risk of higher taxes, after authorities alleged Bumi and its two coal units, Kaltim Prima Coal and Arutmin Indonesia, owed about 2.1 trillion rupiah ($232 million) in tax. 

Bumi won a Supreme Court ruling in May that rejected an appeal for a continued investigation by tax authorities.

Its full year 2010 net profit was $311.18 million. That compared with a net profit of $190.45 million in the year-ago period, and analysts' forecasts for 2010 of $269.8 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S consensus

estimates.   

CLSA forecasts earnings to more than double in 2011 to $705 million.       

 Bumi, which already controls 10 percent of the global thermal coal market, aims to be China's largest supplier of coal for power plants. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal.

         

Bumi saw $4.37 billion in revenues last year, or a 19 percent increase versus $3.66 billion in 2009. Bumi, with a market capitalisation of $7.8 billion, is

controlled by the politically-connected Bakrie Group, which joined forces with the Rothschild banking dynasty in November for Vallar to get a 25 percent stake in Bumi. The Bakrie Group will own 43 percent in the combined London-listed company, which will be renamed Bumi Plc.       

The Bakrie family's holding investment firm Bakrie & Brothers told Reuters this week that Vallar/Bumi Plc plans to increase its stake in Bumi Resources up to 51 percent before June.

         

Bumi shares ended steady at 3,350 rupiah after the results, having gained 10.7 percent this year to outperform a little changed Jakarta index. Bumi's stock underperformed in 2010 when the index rallied 46 percent. ($1 = 8722.5 Rupiah). Source: Reuters        

Bumi 2010 Profit Climbs to $311 Million, Beating Estimates

PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest coal producer by volume, said net income jumped 63 percent last year, beating analyst estimates, as prices of the fuel increased. 

Profit climbed to $311 million from $191 million, the Jakarta-based company said in a statement published today in Suara Pembaruan newspaper. Revenue rose to $4.4 billion from $3.7 billion. That compares with a mean estimate of $276 million in profit and $4.1 billion in revenue from a Bloomberg News survey of 17 analysts. 

Coal producers in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest exporter of the fuel, are benefiting from gains in prices and demand after floods in Australia, the largest shipper, disrupted output. The Indonesian coal reference price rose 18 percent to $103.41 a metric ton in December compared with February 2010, when the government started the benchmark index. 

The unit of PT Bakrie & Brothers sold a “little over” 60 million tons of coal last year at an average $70 a ton compared with 58 million tons at $63 a ton in 2009, Director Dileep Srivastava said Jan. 21. Bumi expects sales and prices to increase by at least 10 percent this year, assuming reasonable weather conditions, he said then. 

Analysts expect Bumi, which has a market value of 69.6 trillion rupiah ($8 billion), to report $515 million in profit and $5.3 billion in sales this year. 

Bumi was unchanged at 3,350 rupiah at the 4 p.m. close in Jakarta trading. The stock has risen 11 percent this year compared with the 0.7 percent drop in the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index. (JCI). Source: Bloomberg

Indonesian coal miner Adaro Energy Q4 net profit falls 43 pct

Adaro Energy , Indonesia's No.2 coal miner, on Wednesday said its fourth quarter 2010 net profit fell 43 percent after heavy rainfall hurt production and as costs rose. 

The firm's fourth quarter net profit was 0.5 trillion rupiah ($57.3 million), compared with 0.87 trillion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations based on published full-year and nine month results showed. 

Unprecedented heavy rainfall affected operations last year but the firm sees a better performance ahead as the outlook for coal remains robust, said Garibaldi Thohir, Adaro's chief executive officer, in a statement. 

Adaro, which has a market capitalisation of $8.4 billion, posted full year 2010 net profit of 2.2 trillion rupiah. 

That compared with a net profit of 4.4 trillion rupiah in the year-ago period, and analysts' forecasts for 2010 net profit of 2.6 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters' Starmine SmartEstimate. 

The coal miner's finance costs climbed 14 percent on interest expenses for its $800 million bonds issued in 2009. The firm's net debt nearly doubled to 8.9 trillion rupiah in 2010 from 4.48 trillion rupiah in 2009. 

Adaro shares fell 2.2 percent on Wednesday to 2,225 rupiah before the results, and have fallen 12.7 percent this year to underperform the Jakarta index's 1.7 percent drop. ($1 = 8722.5 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 31 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Kamis, 31 Maret 2011.

BUY: (PTBA, ASII, BJBR, INDF)

• Penutupan IHSG diatas resistance kunci 3.600 (50-days moving average) memberikan konfirmasi bahwa minor uptrend menuju 3.700 sudah mulai berjalan

• IHSG close (30-03) 3.634(+27.664/+2.83%) (Val.Rp.3.4T) 

• Support: 3.600-3.530-3.450, Resistance: 3,680-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.     Bukit Asam (PTBA): (BUY) (target: Rp.22.650) (close 30/03 Rp.21.400)

• Beberapa katalis positif seperti upside adjustment ASP (average selling price) thermal coal yang proyeksi laba naik hingga 30-50%, masih berjalan sesuai scenario di Q1 2011, dimana PTBA memiliki kandungan 85% thermal coal yang spot sudah berada diatas $130/ton.

• Entry (1) Rp.21.300, Entry (2) Rp.20.850, Cut loss point: Rp.20.400

 

2.    Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp.58.350) (Close 30/03 Rp.56.500)

• Penjualan mobil tidak akan turun signifikan selama suku bunga masih kondisif untuk permintaan kredit mobil.

• Walaupun penjualan Februari sedikit melemah namun pada bulan Januari dimana harga mobil dinaikan sebesar 3% dan pajak progressif diberlakukan, penjualan justru naik.

• Pasca penutupan gap Rp.56.500-55.900 yang disebabkan oleh panic selling akibat downgrade fundamental, ASII siap mengetes resistance high di Rp.57.900-59.200.

• Entry (1) Rp.55.800, Entry (2) Rp.55.200, Cut loss point: Rp.54.050 

 

3.   Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp.5.450) (Close 30/03 Rp.5.300)

• Berhasilnya persero mempunyai margin stabil walaupun harga gandum naik (bahan baku mie) dan diversifikasi ke unit CPO dan gula untuk mengambil keuntungan dari harga komoditas membuat INDF menjadi perusahaan yang sangat efficient.

• Valuasi PER 2011 (12x) 2010 (15x) masih dirasa murah untuk big cap index driver ini dengan ROE diatas 25%

• Entry: (1) Rp.5.250, Entry (2) Rp.5.150, Cut loss point: Rp.5.050

 

4.  Bank Jawa Barat (BJBR) (BUY) (Target: Rp.1.310) (close 30/03 Rp.1.230)

• Pasca konsolidasi ke ma-crossover buy point dan konfirmasi buy dari stochastic dan macd harian, uptrend di emitten bank daerah dengan customer base pegawai sipil di Jawa Barat bersiko rendah untuk kredit macet (NPL dibawah 2%) ini siap berjalan.

• Proyeksi pertumbuhan laba sebesar 33% untuk 2011 masih optimis dapat tercapai.

• Entry (1) Rp.1.230, Entry (2) Rp.1.190, Cut loss point: Rp.1.150

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)