Rekomendasi HD Capital, 6 Juli 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 6 Juli 2011.

BUY: (BUMI, ITMG, ASII, ANTM)

• Keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) setelah kenaikan IHSG diatas all time high 3.880 dapat menyebabkan koreksi (profit taking) di emitten blue chip index driver berkapitalisasi besar, namun bila itu terjadi rekomen akumulasi untuk technical rebound.

• IHSG close (05-06) 3.924.13 (-29.84/-0.79%) (Val.Rp.3.4T) 

• Support: 3.880-3.810-3.720, Resistance: 3.950-4.050

 

Stock picks:

1.     Bumi Resources (BUMI) (BUY) (Target Rp.3.100) (Close 05/07 Rp.2.975)

• Bila terjadi koreksi dibawah level Rp.2.950 untuk menutup price gap Rp.2.800 (harga ini mendekati share swap dengan PIC di Rp.2.700) rekomen akumulasi untuk potensi technical rebound di BUMI dengan misi menutup price gap atas di Rp.3.100.

• Entry (1) Rp.2.900, Entry (2) Rp.2.800, Cut loss point: Rp.2.700

   

2.    Indo Tambang Raya (ITMG) (BUY): (Target: Rp.45.600) (Close 05/07 Rp.44.950)

• Harga minyak mentah yang turun dibawah $100/b selama beberapa minggu lalu positif buat ITMG yang mengunakan bahan bakar diesel dalam produksi batubara mereka, dan cuacu yang mulai kering di musim kemarau ini dapat membuat target produksi tercapai untuk 1H 2011 (Q2 2011) yang sebelumnya sempat terimbas cuaca buruk.

• Entry: (1) Rp.44.700, Entry (2) Rp.44.500, Cut loss point: Rp.43.950

 

3.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp.66.500) (Close 05/06 Rp.66.300)

• Keadaan yang jenuh beli (overbought) menyebabkan saham ini dapat terkoreksi hingga price gap bawah pertama (Rp.64.300) dan support kedua (Rp.63.500) namun bila itu terjadi rekomen akumulasi karena outlook fundamental terhadap momentum penjualan mobil masih positif.

• Entry: (1) Rp.64.200, Entry (2) Rp.63.500, Cut loss point: Rp.62.000

   

4.       Aneka Tambang (ANTM) (BUY): (Target: Rp.2.200) (Close 05/07 Rp.2.125)

• Cum dividend Rp.71/saham dapat menahan penurunan saham ini dibawah level psikologis Rp.2.000 bila terjadi koreksi akibat ulah IHSG.

• Kenaikan IHSG untuk mencetak new high (3.950) minggu belum disertakan dengan rally di sector pertambangan metal (nickel emas) sehingga potensi ANTM untuk breakout dari downtrend channel yang terbentuk sejak 2 minggu masih terbuka dengan target proyeksi di Rp. 2.200

• Entry: (1) Rp.2.075, Entry (2) Rp.2.025, Cut loss point: Rp.1.975

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

S&P places PT Gajah Tunggal 'B' rating On Watch Negative

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it had placed its 'B' long-term corporate credit rating on Indonesia-based tire manufacturer PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk. on CreditWatch with negative implications. We also placed our 'B' issue rating on the company's senior secured notes on CreditWatch with negative implications. 

We placed the ratings on Gajah Tunggal on CreditWatch to reflect the risk that the company's liquidity could significantly weaken if its recent dividend payment constitutes a covenant breach under the terms of its 2009 restructured bonds. 

On June 30, 2011, Gajah Tunggal paid Indonesian rupiah (IDR) 41.8 billion in dividends out of its 2010 profits. The company made the payment before July 21, 2011, the date on which the interest rate on the restructured bonds will increase to 6% from 5%. 

"We need more clarity on whether such action constitutes a covenant breach," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Xavier Jean. 

"The covenants of Gajah Tunggal's restructured bonds restrict the company from making dividend payments under a number of circumstances, including before the interest step-up date. But the covenants also indicate that Gajah Tunggal may pay dividends before the interest step-up date if the Indonesian law requires the company to do so before that date." 

Gajah Tunggal does not consider the dividend payment as a covenant breach and has indicated that it will issue a formal response to its bondholders. 

We believe litigation risks from holders of the restructured bonds could arise if the dividend payment constitutes a covenant breach. An accelerated repayment of the principal of the restructured bond would severely impair Gajah Tunggal's liquidity and heighten the risk of default, in our opinion. 

The face value of the bond at about US$435 million (including US$10 million in contractual amortization to be repaid on or before July 21, 2011) is significantly larger than the company's cash and cash equivalents of about US$130 million as of March 31, 2011. 

However, we believe Gajah Tunggal's liquidity is adequate to service the partial principal amortization of about IDR85 billion and the coupon of the 2009 restructured bond in July 2011, given the company's cash balance of IDR466 billion as of March 31, 2011. 

The rating on Gajah Tunggal reflects the company's highly leveraged financial risk profile, its exposure to a cyclical and volatile industry, and its limited financial flexibility. Gajah Tunggal's competitive cost position and leading share in the Indonesian tire market temper these weaknesses. 

We aim to resolve the CreditWatch in the next three months, or sooner, when we have greater clarity on whether the dividend payment before the step-up date constitutes a covenant breach, and on the likelihood of bondholder litigation. 

We may lower the rating on Gajah Tunggal by multiple notches if the dividend distribution constitutes a covenant breach. Conversely, we may affirm the rating and remove it from CreditWatch if the dividend payment does not constitute a covenant breach.

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 6 Juli 2011

Rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Rabu, 6 Juli 2011

1. E-Trading Securities

Perdagangan kemarin, IHSG turun 29 poin (-0,74%) ke level 3.924. Meski begitu, asing masih membukukan net buying Rp 15 miliar.  Secara teknikal, hari ini indeks masih berpotensi terkoreksi untuk menguji support garis MA 5 di area 3.904. Pergerakannya di kisaran 3.882-3.956. Perhatikan JPFA, AALI, dan JTPE.

2. Indo Premier Secutities

Setelah naik selama empat hari berturut-turut, IHSG terkena profit taking, sehingga turun. Secara teknikal, indeks mendekati overbought. Koreksi indeks merupakan kesempatan untuk mengakumulasi saham-saham unggulan.  Kisaran IHSG hari ini adalah 3.850-3.970 dengan ITMG, AALI, BWPT, PTBA sebagai top picks.

3. Reliance Securities

IHSG hari ini diprediksi masih melanjutkan pelemahan, didukung beberapa indikator teknikal yang menunjukkan overbought. Target pelemahan indeks adalah 3.900, sementara pergerakannya selama pekan ini di level 3.872-3.978. Perhatikan ASII.

4. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Pada perdagangan Rabu (6/7), secara teknikal, indeks cenderung bergerak melemah pada kisaran 3.900-3.953. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan ITMG, ARNA, CPIN, PGAS.