Bank Negara Indonesia sees 19 pct loan growth in 2011

* Negara sees 2011 loan growth at 18-19 pct
* Plans to acquire a micro-lending bank within two years
* Expects to recoup 1.7 trln rph in bad debt this year

PT Bank Negara Indonesia , the nation's fourth biggest lender and flush with $1.2 billion from a rights issue earlier month, aims to spend big on infrastructure projects, the firm's CEO said on Tuesday.

Indonesia has been a darling of emerging market investors this year, but poor infrastructure and byzantine bureaucracy still deter investors. "When I meet investors during road shows, they're really concerned about our connectivity between islands that is causing higher costs," said Gatot M Suwondo, BNI's president director, in an interview with Reuters.

"Therefore, we need to develop our infrastructures as we move from a (domestic) consumer-driven economy to the combination of consumer and foreign investment."


Negara expects to set aside about 20 trillion rupiah to finance infrastructure projects -- including roads and power plants -- in order to stimulate foreign investor appetite, Suwondo said, but getting them off the ground remained a problem.

"We have 25 trillion rupiah of undisbursed loans because projects never start," Suwondo said." We need the government to step up to help by executing its own spending to build infrastructure."


LOAN AND ACQUISITION
BNI is now one of the most capitalised banks in Indonesia after a successful $1.2 billion rights issue this month that help increase its adequacy ratio to 19 percent from 12 percent.
"I expect our loan growth to reach between 18 to 19 percent next year," Suwondo said. "It's still below the sector's target but it's because we're under a restructuring process that is expected to be completed mid next year."

The bank also aims to grow via acquisitions and is looking at opportunities to buy a micro-lender. "We're currently looking [to acquire], maybe in one or two years, because we need to calculate carefully," he said. 

The bank also in talks with several potential partners to develop its brokerage unit as well as its life insurance unit, Suwondo added. 

Suwondo said that BNI expects to recoup about 1.7 trillion rupiah of bad debt this year to add to a 2010 profit that it expect to jump 60 percent from 2.48 trillion rupiah in 2009 to about 3.97 trillion rupiah based on a Reuters calculation. 

The forecast is inline with StarMine SmartEstimate, a consensus that gives more weight to recent forecasts by top-rated analysts, at 3.99 trillion rupiah. 

Shares of BNI, which has a market capitalisation of about $6.1 billion, have risen 95 percent this year -- easily beating a broader market that is nevertheless up 40 percent. Source: Reuters

Indonesia wants five state firms to provide bond backup

Indonesia's finance ministry is in talks with five state firms to seek a commitment from them to buy government bonds in the event of sudden outflows of capital from the market, an official said on Tuesday.

Agus Suprijanto, acting head of the fiscal policy office at the finance ministry, said discussions were still in the early stages, but the so-called bond stabilisation fund would help to maintain bond prices if a reversal in risk sentiment triggered capital outflows.

The five firms are Bank Mandiri , Bank Negara Indonesia and Bank Rakyat Indonesia , as well as pension fund Taspen and deposit insurance corporation LPS, he said.

"If there is a crisis or reversal, they are committed to buy back government bonds," he said, adding that the amount of funds prepared was still being discussed.

Indonesia, Southeast Asia's biggest economy, has been an investor darling this year, but officials are concerned that a tide of hot money could reverse and plunge the economy into crisis.

Bank Indonesia has already moved to encourage investors towards longer-dated paper by scrapping the sale of one- and three-month SBIs and creating a minimum 28-day holding period for the purchase of SBIs.

The government also has funds ready in the state budget to buy back bonds in the event of capital flight, said Suprijanto.

Strong economic growth and political stability have attracted investors to Indonesia, and foreign ownership of government bonds rose to 194.9 trillion rupiah ($21.56 billion) as of Dec. 21 -- almost double the 108 trillion rupiah of December last year -- a third of the total.

Indonesia has also studied the possibility of taxing capital inflows despite it being a less favourable option, Suprijanto said last month.Source: Reuters

Mandiri Tawarkan Saham Baru di Harga Rp 4.000-6.500

PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) akan menerbitkan 2.336.838.591 saham baru dengan harga penawaran di Rp 4.000-6.500 per lembar. Total dana yang akan diraup bank terbesar di Indonesia itu berkisar antara Rp 9,3 triliun hingga Rp 14,4 triliun.

Setiap pemegang 8.985 saham lama yang terdaftar pada 10 Februari 2011, berhak atas 1.000 Hak Memesan Efek Terlebih Dahulu (HMETD). Setiap 1 HMETD tersebut memberikan hak kepada pemegangnya untuk membeli sebanyak 1 saham baru di harga Rp 4.000-6.500.

Rencananya, saham baru ini akan dicatatkan di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada 14 Februari 2011. HMETD ini dapat diperdagangkan baik di dalam maupun di luar BEI sesuai peraturan Bapepam IX.D.1 selama 5 hari bursa dari 14 Februari hingga 21 Februari 2011.

Pemerintah Indonesia sebagai pemegang saham Bank Mandiri tidak akan melaksanakan seluruh HMETD yang menjadi haknya dalam penawaran umum terbatas (PUT) ini yakni sejumlah 1.558.152.476.

Pemerintah RI akan mengalihkan HMETD yang dimilikinya kepada Mandiri Sekuritas dan Danareksa Sekuritas selaku agen penjual yang ditunjuknya. Selanjutnya saham hasil pelaksanaan HMETD itu akan dijual melalui penawaran terbatas.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 28 Desember 2010

Untuk Selasa ini, 28 Desember 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihan yakni Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID), Bank Bukopin (BBKP), Indika Energy (INDY), dan Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) untuk dicermatin dengan opsi beli.

BUY: (DOID, BBKP, INDY, TLKM)

• Dalam tren sideways ini, beberapa emiten di IHSG yang sempat terkorelasi negatif mempunyai prospek upside adjustment ke depan.

• IHSG close (27-12) 3.613.700(+1.777/+0.05%) (Val.Rp.2.6T)

• Support: 3.570-3.475, Resistance: 3,670-3.750-3.800

 

Stock picks:

1.    Delta Dunia (DOID): (BUY) (Target: Rp 1.570) (close 27/12 Rp 1.490)

• Bila terjadi pullback ke 100% retracement Fibonacci support di Rp 1.450 rekomen akumulasi dengan target berikutnya di Fibonacci 161.8% target atas Rp 1.570

• Tren jangka pendek mulai positif dengan indicator MACD & Stochastic memberikan buy signal sejak sepekan lalu.

• Entry: (1) Rp 1.450, Entry (2) Rp 1.380, Cut loss point: Rp 1.270

 

2.   Bank Bukopin (BBKP) (BUY): (Target: Rp 720) (Close 27/12 Rp 650)

• Pasar mulai melirik pemain mikro UKM-koperasi ini yang mempunyai valuasi PER 9x/PBV 1.5x 2010 termurah di sektornya yang sudah terkoreksi 20% sejak menyentuh high Rp 790 pada September lalu.

• Entry (1) Rp 650, Entry (2) Rp 630, Cut loss point: Rp 590

 

3.   Indika Energy (INDY) (BUY): (Target: Rp 4.750) (Close 27/12 Rp 4.475)

• Akuisisi 51% Mitra Bahtera Sagarasejati (MBSS) yang dijadwalkan bulan depan, pembukaan tambang baru di proyek Kalimantan barat serta kontribusi dari unit tambang Kideco di Samarangau dapat menjadi katalis positif untuk meneruskan uptrend.

• Entry: (1) Rp 4.400, Entry (2) 4.250, Cut loss point: Rp 4.100

 

4.   Telekomunikasi (TLKM) (BUY) (Target: Rp 9.700) (close 27/12 Rp 8.000)

• Valuasi PER 13.4x/PBV 3.75x 2010 yang di bawah valuasi IHSG sekarang (PER 14x) serta harapan akan window dressing akhir tahun memicu investor untuk akumulasi saham ini sehingga downside tidak akan berlanjut lagi.

• Entry: (1) Rp 7.900, Entry (2) Rp 7.700, Cut-loss point: Rp 7.500

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)