Mustafa Tutup Buku Soal Merger Flexi dan Esia

Menteri BUMN Mustafa Abubakar kini tidak antusias lagi menanggapi rencana merger dua operator telepon yakni Flexi milik Telkom dengan Esia milik PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL).

Menteri BUMN Mustafa Abubakar menyatakan tidak mau berkomentar soal progres kelanjutan merger kedua operator layanan telekomunikasi di jaringan Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA).

"Saya tidak mau berkomentar masalah itu. Tutup buku dulu soal itu," tegas Mustafa singkat ketika ditemui di Jakarta, Rabu (12/1).

Menurut kabar yang beredar, Presiden SBY tidak menyetujui rencana penggabungan perusahaan milik Telkom dengan salah satu perusahaan grup Bakrie ini. Seperti diketahui, Flexi dan Esia sama-sama layanan telekomunikasi di jaringan Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) dan keduanya memutuskan untuk bersinergi. Saat ini, keduanya masih membicarakan bentuk dari sinergi tersebut.

Jika keduanya bergabung, akan menciptakan operator dengan pelanggan terbesar keempat di Indonesia, di belakang PT XL Axiata. Tidak hanya layanan suara, potensi peningkatan fasilitas data juga diprediksi bakal melonjak saat sinergi telah mencapai titik temu. Source: Detikfinance

Kimia Farma Siapkan Akuisisi Perusahaan Farmasi Herbal Rp 40 Miliar

PT Kimia Farma Tbk (KAEF) sedang mengkaji akan melakukan akuisisi atas perusahaan obat herbal dengan senilai Rp 30 miliar sampai Rp 40 miliar. "Peluang bisnis dibidang herbal di Indonesia dinilai akan menjadi besar, maka dari itu perseroan masih mengkaji," kata Sekretaris Perusahaan KAEF Ade Nugroho di Jakarta, Rabu (12/1).

Ia menambahkan, perusahaan yang akan diakuisisi perusahaan itu memiliki pabrik di daerah Jawa Timur dan Jawa Tengah. Lebih lanjut, Ade Nugroho mengatakan, Kimia Farma membuka tiga apotek baru di Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, pada tahun ini. Dana untuk pembangunan tiga apotek itu direncanakan sebesar Rp 9 miliar.

"Tiap apotek investasinya Rp3 miliar. Dananya dari pinjaman perbankan," kata dia.

Pada tahun ini Kimia Farma menargetkan laba bersih sebesar Rp 78 miliar yang diyakini akan tercapai. "Insya Allah tercapai," kata Ade seperti dikutip Antara.

Selain menargetkan laba bersih Rp 78 miliar, Ade juga mengatakan KAEF menargetkan penjualan sebesar Rp 3,1 triliun.

Mustafa: Harga IPO Garuda Rp 750-1.100/Lembar

Pemerintah menetapkan harga penawaran saham perdana (IPO) PT Garuda Indonesia pada kisaran Rp 750-1.100 perlembar.  "Harga diindikasikan pada rentang Rp 750-1.100 perlembar," kata Menteri BUMN Mustafa Abubakar di Kantor Kementerian BUMN, Jakarta, Rabu (12/1).

Menteri menyebutkan, penetapan harga tersebut didasarkan pada hasil analisis penjamin emisi yang disesuaikan dengan faktor fundamental perusahaan. Sebelumnya, Mustafa menuturkan Kementerian BUMN selaku kuasa pemegang saham Garuda berharap harga IPO Garuda di kisaran Rp 1.000 perlembar.

Namun, ia menyadari kisaran harga tersebut harus dipelajari lebih mendalam oleh penasehat keuangan IPO Garuda. "Saya berharap harga saham IPO Garuda Indonesia di kisaran Rp 1.000. Mudah-mudahan mendapat dukungan dari penasehat keuangan," katanya.

Menurut rencana, IPO Garuda dijadwalkan pada 11 Februari 2011, melepas kepemilikan saham 30%, dengan dana yang akan diperoleh diperkirakan mencapai sekitar US$ 300-350 juta.  "Dengan fundamental perseroan yang bagus, maka saya berharap dapat harga perdana yang bagus pula," ujarnya.

Selain harga yang bagus saat penawaran perdana, juga akan menarik pada pasar sekunder.

Ia menambahkan, pelepasan saham perusahaan penerbangan "platmerah" ini, akan dilepas termasuk kepemilikan 10% saham PT Bank Mandiri.

Dalam IPO tersebut, perseroan telah menetapkan penjamin emisi (underwriter) yaitu, PT Danareksa Sekuritas, PT Bahana Securities, dan PT Mandiri Sekuritas. Sedangkan underwriter asing ditetapkan UBS dan Citibank.

Dalam rencana IPO tersebut, perseroan menggunakan laporan keuangan periode September 2010. Hingga kuartal III 2010, perseroan membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 194 miliar. 

Jumlah saham IPO Garuda 9.362.429.500 lembar. Diambil dari seri B 7.426.691.500 saham baru dan dikeluarkan dari portepel perseroan, dgn nilai nominal Rp 500. Kedua, 1.935.738.000 lembar diambil dari saham seri B milik Bank Mandiri. Jumlah saham yang ditawarkan setara dengan 36,48% dari total modal ditempatkan dan disetor

Target dana yang bisa diperoleh dari penjualan 36,48% saham ke publik itu sekitar berkisar Rp 4-5 triliun. Niat maskapai pelat merah itu melantai di bursa akan dilaksanakan pada 11 Februari 2011. BUMN Aviasi ini juga siap menggelar roadshow pada 17-28 Januari 2011.

Bertindak sebagai penjamin emisi adalah PT Danareksa Sekuritas, PT Mandiri Sekuritas, dan PT Bahana Securities

Power-Station Coal May Reach $150 a Ton on Bad Weather, Credit Suisse Says

Power-station coal may rise to $150 a metric ton in the “coming weeks,” driven by extreme weather conditions, before declining in the year, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. 

“The unexpected cold weather so far this season has taken a toll on global energy inventories and reset energy prices to varying degrees,” Joachim Azria, a New York-based analyst with Credit Suisse, wrote in a report dated Jan. 10. “We expect coal prices to move above $150 in coming weeks and possibly higher if there are further significant disruptions to supply.” 

Prices first rose because of a colder-than-normal winter in the Northern Hemisphere, prompting restocking by countries including China, Azria wrote. 

Further price increases were supported by supply fears because of heavy rains in Indonesia, Australia and Colombia, as well as floods in Queensland state, according to the Credit Suisse note. 

Power-station coal at the port of Newcastle in Australia’s New South Wales, the benchmark for Asia, jumped 4.5 percent to $131.80 a ton in the week ended Jan. 7, according to IHS McCloskey. Prices may decline to about $120 a ton by the end of 2011, Azria said. Source: Reuters

Indonesia car sales in 2010 up 57 pct, exceed forecasts

Indonesia's domestic car sales reached a record 764,088 units last year, up 57 percent from 2009 and above forecasts for 720,000 units, reflecting booming local consumer demand, industry association data showed on Wednesday.

Total car sales, an indicator of domestic demand in a country that does not give retail sales data, were 70,061 units in December, up 46 percent from the same month a year earlier, according to the Indonesian Automotive Association (Gaikindo).

Domestic car sales are led by Toyota , Daihatsu , Mitsubishi , Suzuki and Honda.

Gaikindo forecasts car sales in 2011 to rise just 4 percent following government plans to cut the use of subsidised fuel for private cars this year. The plan will be rolled out starting in the Jakarta region by the second quarter.


Astra International , Indonesia's largest auto distributor, said domestic car sales were expected to grow 5-10 percent in 2011. Source: Reuters

Indonesia Economic Growth to Quicken, Citigroup Says

Indonesia’s economic growth will accelerate this year amid a pick-up in domestic demand and investment even as faster inflation may prompt the central bank to start raising interest rates in March, Citigroup Inc. said. 

The nation’s gross domestic product will grow between 6.3 percent and 6.5 percent in 2011 and 2012, Johanna Chua, the Hong Kong-based head of Asian economic research at Citigroup, wrote in a report to clients today. Chua also raised her inflation forecast for the Southeast Asian nation to 6.5 percent for this year from the previous estimate of 6 percent. 

“We expect continued resilience of private consumption,” Chua said. Furthermore, “unlike in the past where credit expansion was led by consumption, we are now seeing a much more pronounced rebound in working capital loans, which is a positive sign for investment.” 

Indonesia’s economy may have expanded 6 percent last year compared with 4.5 percent in 2009, Bank Indonesia said Jan. 5. The Jakarta Composite index gained 46 percent last year, the best performer among Asia’s 15 biggest stock markets, as low borrowing costs supported domestic consumption. 

Indonesian stocks jumped today, recovering from the biggest four-day drop in two years, after gains in oil and metal prices boosted commodity shares and amid speculation the recent plunge was excessive relative to the outlook for earnings growth. 

The Jakarta Composite advanced 2.7 percent to 3,546.67 as of 3:25 p.m. local-time, the biggest gainer among Asia markets. The measure plunged 8.7 percent in the past four days, the sharpest drop since November 2008, on concern faster inflation will spur interest-rate increases. 

Inflation Outlook

“We are forecasting headline inflation will remain in the 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent range throughout the first half of 2011, exacerbated by the low-base effect, which could lead to core inflation rising to over 4.7 percent by March, April,” Chua wrote. “While still below the 5 percent threshold, the rising trend could be enough to sway Bank Indonesia to move.” 

December inflation accelerated to 6.96 percent from a year earlier, exceeding the 6.71 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey and adding pressure on the central bank to raise its reference rate. Bank Indonesia “won’t hesitate” to increase the rate if core inflation, which exclude food and energy prices, exceeds 5 percent, Deputy Governor Hartadi Sarwono said Dec. 22. 

Demand for loans may rise after the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 6.5 percent for 17 months to boost Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, the nation’s second-largest bank by assets, said Jan. 10 lending growth may accelerate to as much as 22 percent this year from an estimated 18 percent to 20 percent last year. 

The central bank may raise rates by 75 basis points starting in March with a possible delay to April, Chua said. Source: Bloomberg

3 Broker Asing Borong Saham Alam Sutera

Investor asing melalui tiga broker memborong saham Alam Sutera Reality (ASRI). Aksi dimotori oleh CIMB-GK Securities yang memborong 40.796 lot di harga rata-rata Rp 280. Aksi ini diikuti oleh JP Morgan sebanyak 10 ribu lot di harga Rp 280 dan Credit Suisse 4 ribu lot di harga Rp 283.

Aksi ini berhasil mengangkat saham ASRI naik Rp 15 menjadi Rp 290. Selain asing, lokal juga turut membeli saham ASRI melalui Phillip Securities sebanyak 4.687 lot dan Trimegah 3.251 lot.

1	YU	CIMB-GK SECURITIES INDONESIA	236	40,796	280.19	10	1,095	281.94	39,701	41,891
2	BK	J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA	49	10,000	280.00	-	-	-	10,000	10,000
3	CS	CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA	46	4,000	283.42	-	-	-	4,000	4,000
4	KK	PHILLIP SECURITIES INDONESIA	17	4,687	282.56	26	1,219	283.99	3,468	5,906
5	LG	TRIMEGAH SECURITIES TBK.	22	3,251	284.63	26	829	286.18	2,422	4,080

62	PD	INDO PREMIER SECURITIES	114	3,464	282.84	81	8,661	283.05	-5,197	12,125
63	BW	BNP PARIBAS PEREGRINE	-	-	-	36	6,000	277.92	-6,000	6,000
64	NI	BNI SECURITIES	7	326	282.70	37	7,631	279.15	-7,305	7,957
65	CC	MANDIRI SEKURITAS	1	35	285.00	31	13,741	278.01	-13,706	13,776

Credit Suisse Borong 36 Ribu Lot Saham Bank Rakyat Indonesia

Investor asing melalui Credit Suisse memborong 36.092 lot saham Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) di harga rata-rata Rp 4.908. Aksi beli ini berhasil mengangkat saham BRI naik Rp 200 menjadi Rp 5.000.

Selain melalui Credit Suisse, aksi beli oleh investor asing terhadap saham BBRI juga dilakukan melalui Merrill Lynch sebanyak 5.625 dan UBS Securities 5.273 lot. Lokal membeli melalui Bahana Securities 17.549 lot, Trimegah 11.619 lot, dan Kim Eng Sekuritas 26.098 lot.

1	CS	CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA	850	36,092	4,908.74	65	2,321	4,924.31	33,771	38,413
2	DX	BAHANA SECURITIES	248	17,549	5,071.14	203	1,576	6,607.86	15,973	19,125
3	LG	TRIMEGAH SECURITIES TBK.	257	11,619	4,901.89	63	1,568	4,900.83	10,051	13,187
4	ZP	KIM ENG SEKURITAS	186	26,098	7,748.29	39	19,596	8,686.36	6,502	45,694
5	ML	MERRILL LYNCH INDONESIA	103	5,625	4,945.54	15	477	4,773.55	5,148	6,102
6	AK	UBS SECURITIES INDONESIA	134	5,273	4,908.94	20	4,079	4,913.23	1,194	9,352

91	BW	BNP PARIBAS PEREGRINE	-	-	-	54	4,451	4,928.26	-4,451	4,451
92	DB	DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA	133	8,898	4,890.40	90	15,818	4,913.20	-6,920	24,716
93	HG	ABN AMRO ASIA SECURITIES INDONESIA	1	64	4,875.00	171	13,255	4,905.05	-13,191	13,319
94	RX	MACQUARIE SECURITIES INDONESIA	25	7,709	4,800.50	306	34,038	4,890.68	-26,329	41,747

5 Broker Asing Borong Saham Borneo Lumbung Energy

Lima broker memfasilitasi aksi beli investor asing terhadap saham Borneo Lumbung Energy & Metal (BORN). Kelima broker itu adalah Credit Suisse yang membeli sebanyak 27.754 lot, Deutsche Securities (29.226 lot), JP Morgan (22.745 lot), Merrill Lynch Indonesia (6.117 lot), dan Macquarie Securities (8.320 lot).

Rata-rata harga pembelian investor asing melalui kelima broker itu adalah Rp 1.737-1.794. Selain asing, investor juga tidak ketinggalan mengoleksi saham ini melalui Bahana Securities sebanyak 10.845 lot dan Mandiri Sekuritas 10.010 lot. Harga BORN ditutup naik Rp 120 menjadi Rp 1.790.

Di sisi penjual, investor asing melalui broker UBS Securities melepas 86.177 lot.

1	CS	CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA	248	27,754	1,794.65	4	925	1,778.11	26,829	28,679
2	DB	DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA	172	29,226	1,778.73	38	3,918	1,778.59	25,308	33,144
3	BK	J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA	234	22,745	1,773.44	9	1,287	1,810.88	21,458	24,032
4	DX	BAHANA SECURITIES	97	10,845	1,794.69	67	5,060	1,786.85	5,785	15,905
5	CC	MANDIRI SEKURITAS	169	10,010	1,781.94	50	4,775	1,778.92	5,235	14,785
6	ML	MERRILL LYNCH INDONESIA	11	6,117	1,786.54	149	1,073	1,779.23	5,044	7,190
7	RX	MACQUARIE SECURITIES INDONESIA	95	8,320	1,737.55	1	4,000	1,700.00	4,320	12,320

95	DP	DBS VICKERS SECURITIES INDONESIA	3	650	1,779.23	59	7,963	1,785.61	-7,313	8,613
96	ZP	KIM ENG SEKURITAS	111	7,596	1,758.50	207	23,897	1,776.90	-16,301	31,493
97	AK	UBS SECURITIES INDONESIA	117	34,313	1,761.80	579	86,177	1,775.57	-51,864	120,490

UOB Kay Hian Borong 138 Ribu Lot Saham Bhakti Investama

Akhirnya prediksi Bhakti Investama akan menuju Rp 200 terbukti sejak saya menulis artikel Credit Suisse Borong 160 Ribu Lot Saham Bhakti Investama pada 7 Januari 2011. Hanya selang 3 hari perdagangan saja. Ketika itu harga BHIT saya proyeksikan akan tembus Rp 200 dalam 1-2 minggu dan jika berhasil, bisa mencapai Rp 250. (lihat artikelnya: Credit Suisse Borong 160 Ribu Lot Saham Bhakti Investama).

Hari ini saham BHIT ditutup di Rp 193 atau naik Rp 25 (14,88%) dan sempat menyentuh Rp 195 sebanyak 21.516 lot. Kenaikan terjadi karena aksi borong oleh investor asing melalui broker UOB Kay Hian Securities sebanyak 137.776 lot (ada lokalnya).

Di sesi kedua, aksi borong semakin gencar dengan adanya pembelian oleh Phillip Securities sebanyak 90.076 lot di harga rata-rata Rp 184 dan Nusadana Capital sebanyak 82.992 lot di harga Rp 184.

Broker lainnya yang masuk di sesi kedua dengan gencar adalah Victoria Sekuritas sebanyak 31.300 di harga rata-rata Rp 180 dan Asia Kapitalindo Securities 20.230 lot di harga Rp 191.

Sebaliknya, penjual terbanyak hari ini adalah Bhakti Securities yang melepas 131.067 lot di harga Rp 184 namun masih memborong 86.386 lot di harga Rp 179.
 

1	AI	UOB KAY HIAN SECURITIES	417	137,775	177.93	81	21,178	178.92	116,597	158,953
2	KK	PHILLIP SECURITIES INDONESIA	341	90,076	184.60	138	21,018	182.95	69,058	111,094
3	DR	NUSADANA CAPITAL INDONESIA	306	82,992	184.43	129	35,047	184.46	47,945	118,039
4	MI	VICTORIA SEKURITAS	132	31,300	180.67	2	350	185.57	30,950	31,650
5	KC	ASIA KAPITALINDO SECURITIES TBK.	33	20,230	191.00	8	2,285	183.65	17,945	22,515

86	IP	ASJAYA INDOSURYA SECURITIES	6	57	193.51	55	22,022	188.90	-21,965	22,079
87	YU	CIMB-GK SECURITIES INDONESIA	79	22,117	188.28	118	45,268	180.62	-23,151	67,385
88	MU	MINNA PADI INVESTAMA	4	1,050	192.95	59	26,150	191.16	-25,100	27,200
89	EP	BHAKTI SECURITIES	351	86,386	179.37	321	131,067	184.43	-44,681	217,453

Q+A-Indonesia stock sell-off: another crisis or profit-taking?

Indonesia's stock market has slid 7 percent in the past five trading sessions to a 3-month low on worries over inflation, though the sell-off is likely to be limited as most analysts remain positive on the country's fundamentals.

Here are some questions and answers on the sell-off.

WHY ARE INDONESIAN STOCKS SLIDING SO MUCH?
Investors are worried about accelerating inflation, which hit a 20-month high in December, and are concerned the central bank may be behind the curve in dealing with a problem that has in the past led to sudden capital outflows.

Economists have been calling for the past year for Bank Indonesia to start normalising its prime interest rate, slashed to a record low of 6.5 percent during the financial crisis, to head off inflationary pressures caused by higher food and energy prices.

Analysts say if Bank Indonesia does not move soon it may be forced to hike rates aggressively later in the year, which would slow the economy. Growing inflation worries are widespread, but regional peers have already started hiking rates.

Indonesian stocks were also richly priced after a rally to a record last week, so many investors likely have been taking profits. The index gained 46 percent last year, led by consumer stocks -- tyre maker Gajah Tunggal soared five-fold.

Indonesian stocks now trade at an average 12-month forward price-to-earnings multiple of 14.1 times, versus Thailand's 12.1, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S data showed.
Indonesia's current valuation is higher than its average of the past two years of 12.8 times.



WHAT SECTORS ARE HIT THE HARDEST AND WHY?
Banks were the hardest hit, since steep rate hikes could slow lending growth rates that have been above 20 percent in the past year as businesses took on more debt for expansion and an emerging middle class bought record numbers of new cars.

In a rising rate environment, banks with strong deposit franchises such as Bank Negara Indonesia , Bank Mandiri and Bank Central Asia would be relative beneficiaries given their structurally low funding costs that would minimise the impact on margins, said Teguh Hartanto, deputy head of research at brokerage Bahana Securities.

However this week, BNI and BCA saw the heaviest losses, down 10 and 11 percent respectively, while Bank Danamon rose 1 percent. BCA is still priced at over 5 times book value, versus 1.4 times for regional leader DBS Group .

Consumer stocks also fell but less severely, with Gajah Tunggal down 4.5 percent and telecoms firm Indosat down 6.5 percent this week.

HOW HAVE INDONESIAN STOCKS REACTED TO PAST INFLATION?

In 1990, inflation hit a eight-year high of 9.5 percent, leading the central bank to tighten monetary policy with one-month deposit rates at 23 percent. The fledging stock market slid from a peak in April 1990 to halve by the following year. 

The index took four years to recover, but did so even with inflation near 10 percent, as the central bank loosened policy to spur growth and as funds poured money into emerging markets. 

Inflation in 2005 and 2008 from higher oil and commodity prices also led to sharp stock sell-offs. In 2008 the central bank hiked rates by 150 basis points to counter inflation that hit 12 percent in September, and the index again halved in value that year, even before the Lehman collapse rocked world markets. 

WILL THIS TIME BE DIFFERENT?

Yes -- for now. The sell-off is likely to be limited as most analysts are still positive on the long-term fundamentals -- growing local consumption and resources exports -- while loose Western monetary policy means there is ample global liquidity. 

Indonesian banks are much better capitalised than in the Asian financial crisis in 1997/1998, when many went bust, government debt has slid, foreign reserves have jumped to better handle any currency weakness, and direct investment is rising. 

Johanna Chua, chief Asia economist at Citigroup, sees Indonesian stocks going sideways this quarter and temporary volatility until investors see a change in the central bank's stance, though assuming that happens gains are still seen in 2011. 

Chua Hak Bin, director of global research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, also said the sell-off was probably not a one-off and foreign investors will remain nervous with the fight against inflation having just begun.

Investors will increasingly look for value, with the index rebounding 2 percent on Wednesday. Fund manager Winston Sual of Panin Securities said he had been a net buyer in recent days, as he saw fundamentals intact and the recent correction as healthy.

Many investors hope for rating agencies to lift Indonesia in the next year to investment grade, which would spur renewed fund flows to bonds and stocks. Source: Reuters

Indonesia expects prolonged rains until June - met office

Rains will continue in Indonesia until June and the dry season is only likely to start in most areas in July, Indonesia's weather agency forecast at a news conference on Wednesday.

Indonesia's dry season normally runs from April-Sept/Oct, but the country is already experiencing a wetter-than-expected rainy season that has affected plantation crops and could hit resource exploitation.

"When we say dry, it's not completely dry ... it means rain intensity is easing," said Sri Woro, of the met office.

She said if La Nina continues until June as predicted, Indonesia will experience another "wet" dry season. Source: Reuters

Indonesia eyes total investment in 2011 of 2,500 trln rph

The Indonesian Investment Board (BKPM) expects total investment in 2011 will reach 2,500 trillion rupiah ($276.426 billion), up 25 percent from the forecast 2,000 trillion rupiah in 2010, the board said.

The board expects direct foreign and domestic investment in 2011 will grow 15 percent from last year to 230 trillion rupiah.

Total investment includes government spending and business expansion, while total direct investment is based on reports through the Investment Board. The investment board said that investors interest is expected in infrastructure in 2011. ($1 = 9,044 Indonesian Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Indonesia May Sell Dollar Bonds to Local Market to Curb Risks

Indonesia may offer dollar- denominated conventional and Islamic bonds targeted at local investors this year, seeking to curb price swings caused by capital outflows. 

“In the next issuance of global bonds, we might want to increase the allocation for domestic investors, or we might issue entirely in the domestic market,” Rahmat Waluyanto, director-general of the Finance Ministry’s debt management department, said in an interview in Jakarta yesterday. “We need to be vigilant as this can cause some potential risks, especially if there is any trigger to market volatility.” 

Dollar debt of Southeast Asia’s largest economy has handed investors a gain of 13.8 percent in 2010, tying with the Philippines as third-best in the region after Thailand and Pakistan, indexes compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc show. Indonesia plans to sell 200.6 trillion rupiah ($22.1 billion) of local and foreign debt in 2011 to fund a budget deficit estimated to reach 124.7 trillion rupiah, 1.8 percent of gross domestic product. 

The government may not offer rupiah bonds to global markets, unlike neighboring Philippines which has already sold peso bonds twice overseas in the past four months, said Waluyanto. The increase in foreign ownership of rupiah government bonds to 30.8 percent as of Jan. 10 from 0.5 percent in 2003 is a consideration, he said.

Unfriendly Policy

The foreign-currency bonds to be offered this year will include dollar conventional and Islamic bonds, which may be issued within the first half, and samurai securities in the second half, he said. Islamic bonds, known as sukuk, comply with Shariah law by using asset returns to pay investors instead of interest. 

The country raised nearly $3 billion of global securities last year, including $2 billion of dollar bonds and 60 billion yen ($721 million) of samurai notes denominated in Japan’s currency. The amount sold was lower than the $4 billion in 2009. The government usually sets aside 5 percent of the overseas bonds for local investors to buy, Waluyanto said. 

“We can’t prohibit foreign investors from buying our bonds,” Waluyanto said. “This is unfriendly market policy. Instead, we need to counterbalance by developing our own domestic investor base by diversifying instruments.” 

Indonesia’s rupiah debt returned 21 percent last year, the top gainer among 10 Asian government debt markets compiled by HSBC. The currency rose 4.6 percent.

Dollar Liquidity

Foreign ownership in the government’s domestic debt increased 87.76 trillion rupiah last year to 195.76 trillion rupiah, according to the finance ministry. “The spirit is to give more opportunities to domestic investors given that the liquidity in the U.S. dollar is quite big because of the heavy capital inflows,” Waluyanto said. 

Standard & Poor’s raised the country’s rating in March to BB, while Moody’s Investors Service on Dec. 1 placed its Ba2 ranking on review for a possible upgrade, citing an improving economy and state finances. Both rank Indonesia two levels below investment grade. Fitch Ratings assessed Indonesia at BB+, the highest non-investment ranking. 

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said in his annual state-of-the-nation address on Aug. 16 that he is seeking to expand the Indonesian economy by as much as 7.7 percent and create 10.7 million jobs by the end of his second term in 2014.Source: Bloomberg

BUMI Recommendation to Sell, Goldman Sachs say

PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia’s biggest coal producer was cut to “sell” from “neutral” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which cited the stock’s “significant outperformance” and an “overdone” rally in coal prices. 

The brokerage increased its share-price estimate for Bumi by 11 percent to 2,500 rupiah, according to a report by analysts led by Nikhil Bhandari. Source: Bloomberg

Garuda seeks new wings with 36.5 pct IPO

* IPO will float 9.3 bln new and existing shares - sources

* Term sheet says deal seeks to raise $500 million

* 70 pct of IPO reserved for local investors - minister

PT Garuda Indonesia, the nation's biggest carrier by fleet size, aims to sell a 36.5 percent stake, or 9.3 billion new and existing shares, via an initial public offering next month, according to two sources with a direct knowledge of the plan. 
 

Indonesia's booming economy is attracting great interest from foreign investors and encouraging local companies to tap the equity market. The benchmark share index jumped 46 percent last year, supported in part by $2.18 billion in foreign ownership -- more than double that of 2009. 

Garuda aims to raise up to $500 million via the long-delayed IPO according to a term sheet seen by Reuters earlier this month. 

"The total shares of Garuda's enlarged share capital is about 25.7 billion and around 9.3 billion will be sold to the public," said the sources, who declined to be named as details are not yet public. 

The Indonesian government planned initially to launch the IPO last November, but delayed it until 2011. The company aims to list on Feb. 11, the term sheet said.

MYTHICAL BIRD

Garuda, established in 1949, is named after a mythical giant bird that is one of the state's main symbols, but has struggled in recent years and had been banned for a while by the European Commission from flying to Europe because of safety concerns. 

The airline shocked some investors in November when days after the government said the company had a first nine-month loss of 39.5 billion rupiah, Garuda instead announced a profit of 194 billion rupiah, attributing the change to an auditing anomaly. 

Mustafa Abubakar, state-owned enterprises minister said on Tuesday that 70 percent of the IPO would be for local investors and the rest for foreign. "This offering also includes 10 percent stake of Garuda owned by Bank Mandiri," Abubakar added. 

Garuda owed bank Mandiri about 1.3 trillion rupiah until an agreement to convert the debt into a 10 percent stake last year. Citigroup Inc and UBS AG are the international book runners for Garuda's offer. Source: Reuters

Rerkomendasi HD Capital, 12 Januari 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk hari ini, Rabu 12 Januari 2011.

BUY: (BMRI, PGAS, ADRO, BBRI)

* Walaupun IHSG gagal menutup di green zone, berkurangnya net sell asing dari Rp.1.7T ke 1.2T menandakan bahwa pasar mulai bertahan dari penurunan susulan ratusan point seperti 2 hari lalu.

* IMF menyatakan bahwa Indonesia perlu menaikan suku bunga untuk meredam inflasi akibat gejolak pangan yang diduga hanya efek seasonal saja.

* IHSG close (11-01) 3.455.127(-23.422/-0.67%) (Val.Rp.7.2T)

* Support: 3.430-3.350, Resistance: 3.580-3.650-3.700

Stock picks:

1. Bank Mandiri (BMRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp.6.200) (close 11/01 Rp.5.800)

* Bank in belum mengikuti rebound pasar, sehinggi potensi untuk adjustment keatas masih terbuka dengan resiko entry point rendah

* Valuasi PER 13x/PBV 2.5x 2011F dirasa cukup murah untuk bank dengan profitabilitas cukup tinggi (ROE 22%, NPM 21%) serta potensi dari imbas sentiment positif dari IPO Garuda bulan ini.

*Entry: (1) Rp.5.750, Entry (2) Rp.5.600, Cut loss point: Rp.5.450

2. Perusahaan Gas (PGAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp.4.300) (Close 11/01 Rp.4.075)

* Secara historis emitten ini bisa menjadi hedging untuk inflation play, dengan valuasi PER/PBV 2011F 13.5/3.7x dan profitabilitas tinggi (ROE 50%/NPM 32%).

* Suplai gas diharapkan akan lebih terjamin di 2011 sehingga penambahan kontral dapat dilakukan

*Dalam kacamata teknikal saham ini masih dalam medium term uptrend

* Entry (1) Rp.4.050, Entry (2) Rp.3.950, Cut loss point: Rp.3.850

3. Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp.2.700) (Close 11/01 Rp.2.475)

* Rencana pembangunan pembangkit listrik untuk menyuplai kebutuhan energi proyek conveyor belt dapat offset diesel cost tinggi yang disebabkan oleh melambungnya minyak mentah

* Target 12-bulan fundamental (Rp.3.200) dengan asumsi 2011F PER 18x/PBV 4.4x

* Kenaikan batubara diatas $120/ton menaikan ASP (average selling estimates) 2011 dari US$76/ton dari sebelumnya $67/ton.

* Entry: (1) Rp.2.450, Entry (2) 2.375, Cut loss point: Rp.2.300

4. Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY) (Target: Rp.5.250) (close 11/01 Rp.4.800)

* Pertumbuhan penyaluran kredit diperkirakan masih bisa tumbuh 18-22% walaupun ada potensi suku bunga naik hingga 7% di 2011.

*Target Fundamental 12-bulan Rp.7.370 (PER 18.7x 2011F, 4.3x 2011PBV)

*Entry: (1) Rp.4.750, Entry (2) Rp.4.650, Cut-loss point: Rp.4.550

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)