Palm Oil May Drop 7.4% as Output, Reserves Climb, Godrej's Mistry Predicts

Palm oil may tumble as much as 7.4 percent by the end of October as Malaysian production rebounds and Indonesian growers speed up shipments because of an export tax, according to Godrej International Ltd. 

Futures may decline by 150 ringgit ($48) to 200 ringgit a metric ton, Dorab Mistry, a director at Godrej, told an edible oils conference in Mumbai today. The company is one of India’s biggest buyers of cooking oil. 

Palm oil has jumped 19 percent from an eight-month low on July 7 on optimism consumption will increase in Asia because of festivals and excess rainfall may disrupt harvests in Malaysia and Indonesia, the top producers. Malaysian inventories climbed 23 percent to 1.72 million tons in August from July, the country’s palm oil board said Sept. 15. 

“Malaysian month-end stockpiles will rise and prices will need to go lower,” he said. Prices may remain “sideways with a lower bias for the next four to six weeks.” Mistry has traded vegetable oils for more than three decades. 

The December-delivery contract gained 2.1 percent last week to 2,701 ringgit a metric ton ($873) on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, advancing for a fourth straight week. 

Futures may trade between 3,000 ringgit and 3,200 ringgit by January as India and China, the biggest consumers, begin to rebuild inventory, said Mistry, who correctly forecast in March that palm oil would rise in the second half. He said prices may trade between 3,000 ringgit and 3,200 ringgit after June. 

“We have seen in history that every El Nino-inspired bull market has been followed by a very cruel bear market,” Mistry said, referring to the dryness caused by El Nino and higher- than-normal rainfall brought on by La Nina. “El Nino has been followed almost immediately by a La Nina” this year, impeding a recovery in global oilseed and oil output, he said.

Harvests 

Production in Malaysia will drop 2 percent to 17.2 million tons this year and output in Indonesia may expand 500,000 tons, Mistry said. Malaysia may produce 17.8 million tons, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Bernard Dompok said at the conference Sept. 24. Indonesia said Aug. 12 that production may fall to 19 million and 20 million tons, from 21 million in 2009. 

Global vegetable-oil demand will increase by 4.5 million tons in the year beginning Oct. 1, exceeding the 3.8 million tons increase in supply, Mistry said. 

India’s vegetable oil imports may increase to 9.3 million to 9.5 million tons in the year beginning Nov. 1 from 9 million tons this year, he said. Purchases will include 7.2 million tons of palm oil, 1.5 million tons of soybean oil and 400,000 tons of sunflower oils, Mistry said. 

“Production of oilseeds will recover somewhat but as I’ve said previously, Indian production is now largely irrelevant and will constitute a smaller and smaller proportion of consumption with each passing year,” he said. “China has gone this way and India is simply following a well-trodden path.” 

Expensive

Soybean oil prices will trade “sideways” to “slightly” lower for the next four to six weeks and the vegetable oil may become more expensive than palm oil, he said. Argentine soybean oil prices may reach $1,050 a ton free-on-board by January. 

Soybean oil’s premium over palm oil widened to $116.32 a ton on Sept. 24, the most since July 13, Bloomberg data show. 

Sunflower oil prices will exceed $1,200 a ton free on board as dry weather in Russia and Ukraine damage oilseed crops, while canola oil may climb closer to $1,200 a ton in the first quarter of next year, he said.Source: Bloomberg

Reliance Builds Indonesia Rail Lines to Move Coal to Ports, Standard Says

Reliance Power Ltd., is speeding up the construction of railway lines from coal mines to ports in Indonesia’s South Sumatra region, the Business Standard reported, citing an unidentified official at the Indian company. 

Coal from the mines, which are owned by a Reliance subsidiary, is meant for the company’s proposed power plant in Krishnapatnam town, southern India.Source: Bloomberg

Merger Tri Polyta dan Chandra Asri Ciptakan Aset US$ 1,48 Miliar

Pengusaha papan atas Prajogo Pangestu sedang melakukan penggabungan usaha (merger) dua perusahaan miliknya, PT Tri Polyta Indonesia Tbk (TPIA) dengan PT Chandra Asri. Perusahaan baru akan menyandang nama baru yakni PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk.

"Penggabungan ini menggunakan mekanisme share swap," ungkap salah seorang sumber, di Jakarta, Minggu (26/9).

Menurut sumber tersebut, proses merger tengah berlangsung dan diharapkan segera rampung dalam waktu dekat. Rencananya, perseroan akan menggelar RUPS untuk meminta persetujuan pemegang saham pada 27 Oktober 2010.

Saat ini, nilai aset TPIA sebesar US$ 280 juta, sedangkan Chandra Asri sebesar US$ 1,2 miliar. Penggabungan ini akan menghasilkan perusahaan dengan aset US$ 1,48 miliar atau sekitar Rp 14 triliun yang merupakan aksi korporasi pasar modal terbesar tahun ini.

"Perusahaan hasil merger dengan nama baru Chandra Asri Petrochemical ini efektif berlaku 1 Januari 2011," jelasnya.

TPIA dan Chandra Asri merupakan anak usaha PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT). BRPT menguasai 77,93% saham TPIA, sedangkan BRPT menguasai 70% di Chandra Asri. Merger ini akan menciptakan efisiensi usaha di kedua perusahaan. Chandra Asri merupakan pemasok bahan baku TPIA. Source: Detikfinance

Tri Polyta to buy Chandra Asri in $1.2 bln share deal

Tri Polyta Share Up Rp 200 to Rp 3.250

PT Tri Polyta Indonesia (TPIA), the country's largest manufacturer of polypropylene resins, said on Saturday it will acquire petrochemical firm PT Chandra Asri in a share-swap deal worth about $1.2 billion.

The combined companies, both of which are controlled by Indonesian tycoon Prajogo Pangestu through holding company PT Barito Pacific (BRPT), will create Indonesia's biggest listed petrochemical firm.

"We expect the deal to be completed by January 1 2011," said Suryandi, a director at Tri Polyta.

Barito share up Rp 30 to Rp 1,240 on Friday

Barito Pacific owns 77.9 percent of Tri Polyta as well as 70 percent of Chandra Asri. Barito will own a 71.6 percent stake of the combined firm after the deal.

Suryandi said Tri Polyta will issue 2.93 billion new shares to Chandra Asri's shareholders in exchange of the firm's $1.2 billion assets.

He declined to give an indicative price for the new shares. A source close to the deal, who declined to be identified, said the company may offer the shares at 3,579 rupiah, a 10 percent premium to the firm's closing price on Friday and valuing the deal at 10.5 trillion rupiah ($1.17 billion).

The company has appointed Deutsche Bank (DBKGn) and Singapore's DBS Group (DBSM) as advisors for the deal. ($1=8953 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Bos BUMI Jadi Ketua Umum Kadin Hingga 2015

Presiden Komisaris PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) Suryo B Sulisto terpilih menjadi Ketua Umum Kadin periode 2010-2015 mengalahkan 4 pesaingnya dalam pertarungan selama 2 hari dalam Munas VI Kadin.

Suryo masuk putaran II voting pemilu Kadin bersama Wisnu Wardhana yang meraih suara terbesar kedua dalam voting putaran pertama yang dilaksanakan di JCC, Jakarta, Sabtu (25/9).

Dalam putaran kedua, dari 129 suara, Suryo memperoleh 89 suara sementara Wisnu Wardhana meraih 40 suara.

Saat ini Suryo masih duduk sebagai Presiden Komisaris BUMI. Pria kelahiran 11 Februari 1947 ini merupakan tokoh kawakan di BUMI karena telah menjadi Presiden Komisaris sejak 2001. 

50 Tahun Dekat dengan Ical

Sebelumnya, pada awal Juli lalu, Suryo B Sulistio menegaskan, pencalonan dirinya menjadi Ketua Umum Kadin tidak ada kaitannya dengan kepentingan politik tahun 2014.

Ia menegaskan kedekatannya dengan Aburizal Bakrie (Ketum Golkar) sudah terbangun sejak 50 tahun lalu sebagai sebuah fakta.

"Kedekatan saya dengan Pak Ical teman sejak kecil, sejak taman kanak-kanak, sudah 50 tahun kenal, orang tua kita juga kenal baik," kata Suryo dalam acara bincang-bincang dengan wartawan, di Hotel Sultan, Jakarta, ketika itu.

Menurut Suryo, Kadin sebagai sebuah organisasi wadah pengusaha harus independen, kadin bukanlah partai politik. "Kalau menyangkut 2014, belum pernah tuh Pak Ical mengatakan mau maju 2014, ini jujur," tegasnya.

Suryo juga mengatakan, dengan usianya 68 tahun saat ini, niatan maju jadi Ketum Kadin murni untuk mengabdi. Bahkan kata dia, tak terbesit olehnya untuk menjadi seorang menteri jika menang dalam pemilihan Ketum Kadin.

"Ah nggaklah, saya sudah 68 tahun mau ngapain lagi," katanya.

Saat ini kata dia, dirinya sudah tak aktif dalam bisnis, semua bisnisnya ia sudah serahkan kepada anak-anaknya. "Kalau saya terpilih sebagai Ketum Kadin, 100% waktu saya untuk Kadin," katanya.

Ia menambahkan sebagai wadah organisasi pengusaha, Kadin harus menjadi mitra yang efektif terhadap pemerintah. Hal ini penting, agar pemerintah sebagai pembuat kebijakan bisa menghasilkan regulasi yang efektif.

"Jadi bisa bermanfaat bagi pembuat kebijakan, jika kebijakan itu keluar bisa business friendly," jelasnya.

Ia mengakui untuk bisa mencapai hal itu perlu usaha yang keras bagi Ketum Kadin mendatang, termasuk melakukan lobi-lobi yang tajam kepada pemerintah.

"Tidak mudah memang kita untuk mempengaruhi pemerintah, ini pun sudah dilakukan Kadin sekarang, meski hasilnya kurang sesuai harapan. Yang perlu ditingkatkan lobi kita," katanya. Source: Detikfinance