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Friday, January 14, 2011

Indonesia eyes U.S. wheat over concern at Australian supplies

United States wheat exporters are seeing rising interest from Indonesia as importers look for alternative suppliers to flood-hit Australia, with negotiations expected to intensify in coming weeks, an industry official said on Thursday. 

Indonesia relies entirely on imports for its wheat, and consumption is expected to rise between 5-10 percent to around 5.2 million tons this year, local milling officials say.

Australia traditionally provides over half that, but the wheat industry there suffered a fresh setback from the country's floods disaster on Wednesday with a key grain port shutting down overnight, further restricting exports.

Among the world's four-largest wheat shippers, Australia is now expected to register a fall in exports in the 2010/11 marketing year after floods and heavy rains left much of the harvest unfit for sale to quality-conscious buyers in major markets.

"Usually, if there is no supply from Australia, the next available would be Canada and United States wheat," said a consultant to U.S. Wheat Associates. "We will be expecting to see some increase of wheat (exports) from U.S. and Canada. Definitely there is a big impact on us."

"Probably right now, people are negotiating prices ... there is going to be an impact after a few weeks," he added. "I know of (at least) one company who is now looking for U.S. retailers ... U.S. wheat is always readily available, as long as the price is right."

Indonesia is expected to import about 382,000 tonnes of wheat from the United States in the June 2010-May 2011 marketing year, the U.S. Wheat Associates said on its website.


IMPACT ON INDONESIA?
In 2009, Indonesia was Asia's second largest wheat importer after Japan, with about 5.36 million tonnes. There is far from a consensus on any impact the Australian floods will have on Indonesian supplies.


A member of the Indonesian Wheat Flour Mills Association said imports were unaffected, as the majority of Australian imports came from Western Australia and not the flood-stricken area of Queensland.

Indonesia has 14 flour mills which can process 7 million tonnes of wheat, up from four mills ten years ago, data from the local association showed. Southeast Asia's largest economy, has forecast economic growth of 6 percent this year, and as wealth improves people in urban areas are expected to consume more flour-based food as an alternative to rice.

PT Indofood Sukses Makmur , controlled by Indonesia's Salim family, in October listed its unit PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur -- the world's top noodle maker -- to tap the growth of the middle class and domestic demand.

Indofood controls two of the world's largest flour millers through its Bogasari Flour Mills unit. Source: Reuters

Jamsostek to Purchase More Bonds as Stock Gains Slow

PT Jaminan Sosial Tenaga Kerja, Indonesia’s state-pension fund, plans to increase its allocation to bonds this year to benefit from rising yields and as gains in the stock market slow. 

The fund, which has about $11 billion of assets, will raise fixed-income holdings to at least 44 percent of total investments from 41 percent, and keep equities at up to 22 percent, Investment Director Elvyn Masassya said in an interview in Jakarta yesterday. 

A 50 basis-point increase in interest rates may be enough to cope with faster inflation and the Jakarta Composite Index may end the year as much as 21 percent higher, he said. The gauge gained 46 percent last year. 

“Once the central bank does the adjustment in terms of interest rates, the coupon rate for bonds will increase,” said Masassya, who prefers to buy bonds with a maturity of five years and longer. Policy makers “must do the adjustment to control the inflation rate and also convince investors that the central bank is doing the right thing in terms of monetary policy.” 

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate at a record low of 6.5 percent after a Jan. 5 policy meeting even as consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in 20 months in December. 

Ten-year government bonds have lost 3.9 percent this year and the benchmark stock index dropped 3.7 percent on concern inflation will accelerate. Consumer prices rose to 6.96 percent in December from a year earlier, exceeding the 6.71 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. 

Bond, Stock Returns
The yield on the 8.25 percent note due July 2021 reached 8.47 percent on Jan. 11, the highest level since July 2010, according to prices from the Inter Dealer Market Association.
Rupiah-denominated bonds returned 21 percent and the Jakarta Composite Index soared 46 percent last year, the best performances among Asia’s biggest markets outside of Japan. Indonesia’s economy, Southeast Asia’s largest, escaped a recession during the 2009 global slowdown. 

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is targeting annual growth of 6.6 percent on average through the remainder of his term ending in 2014. Bank Indonesia forecast the economy will expand by as much as 6.5 percent this year from an estimated 6 percent in 2010. 

The central bank may raise its benchmark policy rate by 100 basis points between March and August, Credit Suisse AG said in a Jan. 11 report. This means gross domestic product in 2012 will expand an average 5.5 percent, lower than economists’ estimates and “potentially a big disappointment relative to the government’s ambitious aims,” Credit Suisse analysts led by Robert Prior-Wandesforde said in the report. 

Record High
The Jakarta Composite Index rose to a record 3,786.10 on Dec. 9 as low interest rates drove domestic spending, boosting shares such as PT Astra International, the nation’s biggest automotive retailer and the largest company by market value. The stock climbed 57 percent last year.

Gains in Indonesian stocks may slow this year as valuations rise, Masassya said. Once shares trade at 18 to 19 times earnings the “upside will be limited,” he said. Companies in the Jakarta Composite trade at an average 14.2 times estimated profit, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

A central bank interest-rate increase of 50 basis points to stem inflation won’t hurt the attractiveness of equities, he said, adding the index may end the year at 4,200 to 4,300 points. That’s an increase of as much as 21 percent from the gauge’s closing level of 3,564.94 yesterday. 

Mining, Agriculture
Jamsostek, as the pension fund is known, isn’t allowed to invest overseas directly and expects its assets to grow to 115 trillion rupiah ($12.7 billion) in 2011 from 98.5 trillion rupiah last year, according to Masassya. 

Masassya said he likes stocks in the mining, agriculture, and basic industries groups, citing rising demand for commodities and expectations that infrastructure spending will pick up this year. He also likes financial stocks as banks have room to boost lending even as Bank Indonesia moves to increase borrowing costs this year. 

“Don’t forget higher inflation means higher growth,” he said. “I still believe economic growth this year could be more than 6.5 percent, driven by consumption and investments.” Source: Bloomberg

Target Price Adaro Energy IDR 2,800, JP Morgan Say

PT Adaro Energy (ADRO), Indonesia’s second-largest coal producer was raised to “neutral” from “underweight” at JPMorgan Chase & Co., which said rainy weather in Indonesia should support coal prices. 

JPMorgan raised its share-price estimate to 2,800 rupiah from 2,000 rupiah, according to the report by analyst Stevanus Juanda.

Analisis terhadap IPO Garuda oleh HD Capital

Pre-IPO Coverage                                                                                                               
Listed Company: PT.Garuda Indonesia
Sektor: Infrastruktur Transportation
Mkt Cap: Rp.1.2-1.5T
Kisaran Harga: Rp.750-Rp.1.100
Analyst Rating (BUY)
Business Summary:
  • Jasa penerbangan penumpang dan cargo dalam dan luar negeri
 
Sector Comparison & Rekomendasi
  • Tidak ada, namun dari segi valuasi PER diperkirakan sekitar 11-15x 2010 PE
  • Saham yang diberikan ke Bank Mandiri sebagai pembayaran hutang mempunyai lock up period selama 12-bulan sehingga masih ada potensi upside awal tahun ini. 
     
  • Langkah persero untuk menutup operasi anak usaha Mandala juga positif karena carrier tersebut merupakan beban berat yang ditanggung oleh Garuda 
     
  • Emiten tersebut tidak mempunyai perbandingan atau competitor yang TBK dan statusnya sebagai BUMN yang telah melewati masa sulit dan me-restrukturisasi utangnya menjadi perusahaan sehat layak menjadi pertimbangan untuk membeli.
 
Dibuat oleh: 
Yuganur Wijanarko 
Senior Research HD Capital

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 14 Januari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari HD Capital untuk perdagangan Jumat, 14 Januari 2011.
BUY: (ADRO, BMRI,INDF, BBRI)

* Walaupun IHSG terimbas profit taking pada sesi dua, Asing yang masih net buy dan rupiah yang menguat menandakan bahwa tren positif masih dapat berlangsung hingga menembus resistance 3.630.

* IHSG close (13-01) 3.564.94 (+10.17/+0.29%) (Val.Rp.4.6T).

* Support: 3.530-3.430, Resistance: 3.670-3.750


Stock picks:

1. Adaro Energy (ADRO): (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.800) (close 13/01 Rp 2.625)

* Koreksi akibat keadaan jenuh beli pasca mencetak new high kemarin sudah cukup mereda, potensi adjustment selling price (ASP) harga batubara dari US$ 67 ke US$ 76/ton untuk 3-bulan kedepan akan berdampak positif untuk earnings 2011 sehingga rekomen akumulasi kembali.

* Diperkirakan produksi batubara di Q1 2011 akan berjalan sesuai target

* Entry: (1) Rp 2.600, Entry (2) Rp 2.500, Cut loss point: Rp 2.350


2. Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.200) (Close 13/01 Rp 5.850)

* Bila masih terjadi penekanan lebih lanjut rekomen akumulasi karena pasar belum melihat potensi efek positif ke kinerja persero pasca launching IPO Garuda dimana utang ke BMRI dapat menjadi aset di laporan keuangan nantinya.

* Penguatan rupiah juga memberikan efek positif ke posisi utang US$ corporate utk process loan recovery NPL.

* Entry (1) Rp 5.800, (2) Rp 5.600, Cut loss point: Rp 5.300


3. Indofood  Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp 5.000) (Close 13/01 Rp 4.725)

* Kegagalan untuk mencapai new low secara teknikal menunjukan bahwa pelaku pasar mulai melakukan akumulasi untuk membuat proses up-trend recovery terjadi di saham defensive ini.

* Kenaikan bahan pangan terutama gandum tidak bepengaruh terhadap margin mie instan seperti yang terbukti di laporan keuangan Q3 2010 lalu, dan harga cabai melambung tinggi juga tidak membebani cost divisi bumbu karena mengunakan essence cabe sintetis.

* Entry: (1) Rp 4.675, Entry: (2) Rp 4.550, Cut loss point: Rp 4.350


4. Bank BRI (BBRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 5.450) (Close 13/01 Rp 5.100)

* Target fundamental 12-bulan Rp 6.350 (2011F PER 18x, PBV 3.6x) masih menyisihkan banyak upside dari valuasi harga sekarang, Rp 5.000 (2011F PER 14x, PBV 2.7X) sehingga rekomen akumulasi.

* Biasanya saham pasca stock split melakukan tren reversal ke atas yang cukup tajam untuk adjust ke liquiditas dan minat pasar yang bertambah

* Entry: (1) Rp 5.000, Entry (2) Rp 4.900, Cut loss point: Rp 4.750


Dibuat oleh:
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Outlook Bulanan HD Capital: IHSG Kembali ke 3.700

Strategy-January (12/01) (BUY):   "Kembali ke IHSG 3.700"

Menurut HD Capital, ada beberapa alasan IHSG untuk kembali ke 3.700:
 
  • Inflasi akibat kenaikan harga pangan (yang disebabkan oleh berbagai bencana alam seperti banjir dan meletusnya gunung merapi dan bromo) diperkirakan dapat mereda menuju ke akhir bulan Januari dan awal Februari karena pemerintah telah membebaskan bea masuk makanan impor seperti beras dan sayur-mayur.
  • IMF menyatakan Indonesia tidak perlu menaikan suku bunga untuk menghentikan inflasi pangan yang cuma merupakan efek seasonal sehingga hal ini dapat membuat pelaku pasar lebih tenang.
  • Penguatan rupiah dari Rp 9.100 ke 9.035 merupakan bukti kalau asing hanya pindah ke fixed income instrument dan siap kembali lagi ke bursa yang sekarang valuasi diperdagangkan di valuasi PER 12x 2011F. Secara fundamental IHSG seharusnya diperdagangkan di atas valuasi tersebut.
  • Outlook regional masih positif dengan ekonomi Amerika mulai recover walaupun dalam laju yang sedikit lamban
 
Rekomendasi Portofolio & Target Price 1-bulan:
Ticker
TP 1 bln
PER11F
PBV11F
ROE11F
ADRO
Rp 2.950
16x
4x
12%
ITMG
Rp 57.000
13x
8x
35%
BBRI
Rp 5.600
12x
3.5x
27%
BUMI
Rp 3.250
12x
3x
18%
TLKM
Rp 8.100
11x
3.7x
28%
ASII
Rp 52.000
13x
3.5x
30%
INDF
Rp 4.950
13x
3.x
26%
BMRI
Rp 6.500
13x
3.6x
22%
BBCA
Rp 6.250
16x
4x
26%
 
Dibuat oleh: 
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital.
(Yuganur@hdx.co.id

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 13 Januari 2011


Berikut rekomendasi dari empat sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Kamis, 13 Januari 2011. 
 
1. E-Trading Securities
Pada perdagangan Rabu (12/1), IHSG naik 99 poin (2,88%) ke level 3.554,77 setelah mengalami penurunan selama empat hari berturut-turut. Asing masih melakukan net selling Rp 495 miliar, lebih rendah dibanding Selasa (11/1). Secara teknikal, indeks akan melanjutkan kenaikan, terlihat dari candlestick yang berbentuk full candle yang diikuti oleh volume yang meningkat. Pada perdagangan Kamis (13/1), IHSG akan bergerak di kisaran 3.537-3.659 dengan saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain UNTR, ADRO, dan INDY.

2. Reliance Securities 
Indeks saham di kawasan Asia kemarin terangkat oleh kenaikan harga sejumlah komoditas dan lelang surat utang Portugal dan Spanyol yang diserap pasar karena yield cukup atraktif. Kemarin, IHSG ditutup meroket 99,6 poin (2,9%). Hari ini indeks masih berpotensi melanjutkan penguatan dan berfluktuasi di kisaran 3.533–3580 dengan saham-saham pilihan ELTY, LSIP, DOID, dan BBTN.

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas  
Hari ini indeks diperkirakan masih menunjukan tren penguatan didukung oleh sentimen positif dari bursa regional dan menguatnya harga logam. Banjir di Queenland, Australia, belum menunjukkan tanda-tanda membaik, sehingga saham-saham batubara seperti ADRO dan ITMG masih bullish. IHSG hari ini diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran 3.521-3.588. Cermati saham dengan valuasi murah, seperti MYOR, UNTR, INDF, dan TINS

4. Sucorinvest Central Gani
Pelaku pasar memborong saham-saham di sektor komoditas, barang konsumsi, infrastruktur, sehingga mendongkrak IHSG kemarin. Pada Kamis (13/1), indeks perkirakan menguat berfluktuasi pada kisaran 3.530-3.588. Buy ADRO, ANTM, BBNI, INDF, KLBF, INCO, dan UNTR.


Rekomendasi HD Capital, 13 Januari 2011

Untuk perdagangan Kamis, 13 Januari 2011, HD Capital merekomendasikan opsi beli terhadap saham Semen Gresik (SMGR), Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM), Adaro Energy (ADRO), dan Astra International (ASII).

BUY: (SMGR, TLKM, ADRO, ASII)
  • Sentimen regional memberi angin segar untuk IHSG menutup kembali diatas 3.530 sehingga potensi rally dapat berlanjut besok.
  • IPO Garuda yang berjalan sesuai jadwal nantinya juga memberikan kepercayaan tambahan ke pasar
  • IHSG close (12-01) 3.549.127(+91.519/+2.71%) (Val.Rp.6.2T)
  • Support: 3.530-3.450, Resistance: 3.590-3.650-3.720
 
Stock picks:
1.    Semen Gresik (SMGR): (BUY) (Target: Rp 9.250) (close 12/01 Rp 8.950)
  • Sektor semen diperkirakan mempunyai prospek cerah pada 2011 seiring dengan bertambahnya proyek infrastruktur dan property
  • Rekomen SMGR dengan valuasi PER/PBV termurah di sektornya
  • Secara teknikal sangat jenuh jual dengan potensi terjadinya pembalikan arah tren ke atas
  • Entry: (1) Rp 8.900, Entry (2) Rp 8.700, Cut loss point: Rp 8.500
 
2.   Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) (BUY): (Target: Rp 7.850) (Close 12/01 Rp 7.500)
  • Valuasi 2011F PER 11x/PBV 2.7x dapat membuat investor asing melirik kembali big cap core holding yang sudah terkoreksi cukup dalam ini dengan target atas pertama di price gap Rp 7.650-7.700 dan kedua di 7.850.
  • Entry (1) Rp 7.500, Entry (2) Rp 7.350, Cut loss point: Rp 7.150
 
3.   Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.800) (Close 12/01 Rp 2.600)
  • Rencana pembangunan pembangkit listrik untuk menyuplai kebutuhan energi proyek conveyor belt dapat offset diesel cost tinggi yang disebabkan oleh melambungnya minyak mentah
  • Target 12-bulan fundamental (Rp 3.200) dengan asumsi 2011F PER 18x/PBV 4.4x
  • Kenaikan batubara di atas US$ 120/ton menaikan ASP (average selling estimates) 2011 dari US$76/ton dari sebelumnya US$ 67/ton.
  • Entry: (1) Rp 2.600, Entry (2) 2.475, Cut loss point: Rp 2.350
 
4.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY) (Target: Rp 52.000) (close 12/01 Rp 48.450)
  • Penjualan mobil 2010 naik dua kali lipat versus tahun sebelumnya (2009), walaupun di 2011 penjualan mobil tidak diharapkan naik hingga dua kali lipat, dengan proyeksi 11% saja secara fundamental ASII seharusnya berada di atas harga sekarang.
  • Target Fundamental 12-bulan Rp 80.000 (PER 14.5x 2011F, 13.9x 2011F PBV)
  • Entry: (1) Rp 48.400, Entry (2) Rp 47.450, Cut-loss point: Rp 46.550
 
 
Dibuat oleh: 
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Southeast Capital Kuasai 19,09% Waran Bumi Resources Mineral

Dua institusi lokal tercatat menguasai 902,59 juta lot waran Bumi Resources Mineral. Kedua institusi itu adalah Nuansa Mahkota Raya dan PT Southeast Capital Investment.

Dalam keterangan resminya, PT Ficomindo Buana selaku biro admisnitrasi efek Bumi Resources Mineral, menyatakan, Nuansa Mahkota Raya yang beralamat di Green Ville Blok R No 14 Kebon Jeeruk Jakarta Barat, memiliki 482.598.000 waran atau setara 21,94%.

Sedangkan Southeast Capital yang beralamat di Jalan Kapuk Raya menguasai 420 juta lot waran atau setara dengan 19,09% kepemilikan.

Berdasarkan penelusuran, tidak ada informasi yang tersedia terhadap keberadaan kedua perusahaan lokal ini.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Mustafa Tutup Buku Soal Merger Flexi dan Esia

Menteri BUMN Mustafa Abubakar kini tidak antusias lagi menanggapi rencana merger dua operator telepon yakni Flexi milik Telkom dengan Esia milik PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL).

Menteri BUMN Mustafa Abubakar menyatakan tidak mau berkomentar soal progres kelanjutan merger kedua operator layanan telekomunikasi di jaringan Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA).

"Saya tidak mau berkomentar masalah itu. Tutup buku dulu soal itu," tegas Mustafa singkat ketika ditemui di Jakarta, Rabu (12/1).

Menurut kabar yang beredar, Presiden SBY tidak menyetujui rencana penggabungan perusahaan milik Telkom dengan salah satu perusahaan grup Bakrie ini. Seperti diketahui, Flexi dan Esia sama-sama layanan telekomunikasi di jaringan Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) dan keduanya memutuskan untuk bersinergi. Saat ini, keduanya masih membicarakan bentuk dari sinergi tersebut.

Jika keduanya bergabung, akan menciptakan operator dengan pelanggan terbesar keempat di Indonesia, di belakang PT XL Axiata. Tidak hanya layanan suara, potensi peningkatan fasilitas data juga diprediksi bakal melonjak saat sinergi telah mencapai titik temu. Source: Detikfinance

Kimia Farma Siapkan Akuisisi Perusahaan Farmasi Herbal Rp 40 Miliar

PT Kimia Farma Tbk (KAEF) sedang mengkaji akan melakukan akuisisi atas perusahaan obat herbal dengan senilai Rp 30 miliar sampai Rp 40 miliar. "Peluang bisnis dibidang herbal di Indonesia dinilai akan menjadi besar, maka dari itu perseroan masih mengkaji," kata Sekretaris Perusahaan KAEF Ade Nugroho di Jakarta, Rabu (12/1).

Ia menambahkan, perusahaan yang akan diakuisisi perusahaan itu memiliki pabrik di daerah Jawa Timur dan Jawa Tengah. Lebih lanjut, Ade Nugroho mengatakan, Kimia Farma membuka tiga apotek baru di Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, pada tahun ini. Dana untuk pembangunan tiga apotek itu direncanakan sebesar Rp 9 miliar.

"Tiap apotek investasinya Rp3 miliar. Dananya dari pinjaman perbankan," kata dia.

Pada tahun ini Kimia Farma menargetkan laba bersih sebesar Rp 78 miliar yang diyakini akan tercapai. "Insya Allah tercapai," kata Ade seperti dikutip Antara.

Selain menargetkan laba bersih Rp 78 miliar, Ade juga mengatakan KAEF menargetkan penjualan sebesar Rp 3,1 triliun.

Mustafa: Harga IPO Garuda Rp 750-1.100/Lembar

Pemerintah menetapkan harga penawaran saham perdana (IPO) PT Garuda Indonesia pada kisaran Rp 750-1.100 perlembar.  "Harga diindikasikan pada rentang Rp 750-1.100 perlembar," kata Menteri BUMN Mustafa Abubakar di Kantor Kementerian BUMN, Jakarta, Rabu (12/1).

Menteri menyebutkan, penetapan harga tersebut didasarkan pada hasil analisis penjamin emisi yang disesuaikan dengan faktor fundamental perusahaan. Sebelumnya, Mustafa menuturkan Kementerian BUMN selaku kuasa pemegang saham Garuda berharap harga IPO Garuda di kisaran Rp 1.000 perlembar.

Namun, ia menyadari kisaran harga tersebut harus dipelajari lebih mendalam oleh penasehat keuangan IPO Garuda. "Saya berharap harga saham IPO Garuda Indonesia di kisaran Rp 1.000. Mudah-mudahan mendapat dukungan dari penasehat keuangan," katanya.

Menurut rencana, IPO Garuda dijadwalkan pada 11 Februari 2011, melepas kepemilikan saham 30%, dengan dana yang akan diperoleh diperkirakan mencapai sekitar US$ 300-350 juta.  "Dengan fundamental perseroan yang bagus, maka saya berharap dapat harga perdana yang bagus pula," ujarnya.

Selain harga yang bagus saat penawaran perdana, juga akan menarik pada pasar sekunder.
Ia menambahkan, pelepasan saham perusahaan penerbangan "platmerah" ini, akan dilepas termasuk kepemilikan 10% saham PT Bank Mandiri.

Dalam IPO tersebut, perseroan telah menetapkan penjamin emisi (underwriter) yaitu, PT Danareksa Sekuritas, PT Bahana Securities, dan PT Mandiri Sekuritas. Sedangkan underwriter asing ditetapkan UBS dan Citibank.

Dalam rencana IPO tersebut, perseroan menggunakan laporan keuangan periode September 2010. Hingga kuartal III 2010, perseroan membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 194 miliar. 

Jumlah saham IPO Garuda 9.362.429.500 lembar. Diambil dari seri B 7.426.691.500 saham baru dan dikeluarkan dari portepel perseroan, dgn nilai nominal Rp 500. Kedua, 1.935.738.000 lembar diambil dari saham seri B milik Bank Mandiri. Jumlah saham yang ditawarkan setara dengan 36,48% dari total modal ditempatkan dan disetor

Target dana yang bisa diperoleh dari penjualan 36,48% saham ke publik itu sekitar berkisar Rp 4-5 triliun. Niat maskapai pelat merah itu melantai di bursa akan dilaksanakan pada 11 Februari 2011. BUMN Aviasi ini juga siap menggelar roadshow pada 17-28 Januari 2011.

Bertindak sebagai penjamin emisi adalah PT Danareksa Sekuritas, PT Mandiri Sekuritas, dan PT Bahana Securities

Power-Station Coal May Reach $150 a Ton on Bad Weather, Credit Suisse Says

Power-station coal may rise to $150 a metric ton in the “coming weeks,” driven by extreme weather conditions, before declining in the year, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. 

“The unexpected cold weather so far this season has taken a toll on global energy inventories and reset energy prices to varying degrees,” Joachim Azria, a New York-based analyst with Credit Suisse, wrote in a report dated Jan. 10. “We expect coal prices to move above $150 in coming weeks and possibly higher if there are further significant disruptions to supply.” 

Prices first rose because of a colder-than-normal winter in the Northern Hemisphere, prompting restocking by countries including China, Azria wrote. 

Further price increases were supported by supply fears because of heavy rains in Indonesia, Australia and Colombia, as well as floods in Queensland state, according to the Credit Suisse note. 

Power-station coal at the port of Newcastle in Australia’s New South Wales, the benchmark for Asia, jumped 4.5 percent to $131.80 a ton in the week ended Jan. 7, according to IHS McCloskey. Prices may decline to about $120 a ton by the end of 2011, Azria said. Source: Reuters

Indonesia car sales in 2010 up 57 pct, exceed forecasts

Indonesia's domestic car sales reached a record 764,088 units last year, up 57 percent from 2009 and above forecasts for 720,000 units, reflecting booming local consumer demand, industry association data showed on Wednesday.

Total car sales, an indicator of domestic demand in a country that does not give retail sales data, were 70,061 units in December, up 46 percent from the same month a year earlier, according to the Indonesian Automotive Association (Gaikindo).

Domestic car sales are led by Toyota , Daihatsu , Mitsubishi , Suzuki and Honda.

Gaikindo forecasts car sales in 2011 to rise just 4 percent following government plans to cut the use of subsidised fuel for private cars this year. The plan will be rolled out starting in the Jakarta region by the second quarter.


Astra International , Indonesia's largest auto distributor, said domestic car sales were expected to grow 5-10 percent in 2011. Source: Reuters

Indonesia Economic Growth to Quicken, Citigroup Says

Indonesia’s economic growth will accelerate this year amid a pick-up in domestic demand and investment even as faster inflation may prompt the central bank to start raising interest rates in March, Citigroup Inc. said. 

The nation’s gross domestic product will grow between 6.3 percent and 6.5 percent in 2011 and 2012, Johanna Chua, the Hong Kong-based head of Asian economic research at Citigroup, wrote in a report to clients today. Chua also raised her inflation forecast for the Southeast Asian nation to 6.5 percent for this year from the previous estimate of 6 percent. 

“We expect continued resilience of private consumption,” Chua said. Furthermore, “unlike in the past where credit expansion was led by consumption, we are now seeing a much more pronounced rebound in working capital loans, which is a positive sign for investment.” 

Indonesia’s economy may have expanded 6 percent last year compared with 4.5 percent in 2009, Bank Indonesia said Jan. 5. The Jakarta Composite index gained 46 percent last year, the best performer among Asia’s 15 biggest stock markets, as low borrowing costs supported domestic consumption. 

Indonesian stocks jumped today, recovering from the biggest four-day drop in two years, after gains in oil and metal prices boosted commodity shares and amid speculation the recent plunge was excessive relative to the outlook for earnings growth. 

The Jakarta Composite advanced 2.7 percent to 3,546.67 as of 3:25 p.m. local-time, the biggest gainer among Asia markets. The measure plunged 8.7 percent in the past four days, the sharpest drop since November 2008, on concern faster inflation will spur interest-rate increases. 

Inflation Outlook
“We are forecasting headline inflation will remain in the 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent range throughout the first half of 2011, exacerbated by the low-base effect, which could lead to core inflation rising to over 4.7 percent by March, April,” Chua wrote. “While still below the 5 percent threshold, the rising trend could be enough to sway Bank Indonesia to move.” 

December inflation accelerated to 6.96 percent from a year earlier, exceeding the 6.71 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey and adding pressure on the central bank to raise its reference rate. Bank Indonesia “won’t hesitate” to increase the rate if core inflation, which exclude food and energy prices, exceeds 5 percent, Deputy Governor Hartadi Sarwono said Dec. 22. 

Demand for loans may rise after the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 6.5 percent for 17 months to boost Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, the nation’s second-largest bank by assets, said Jan. 10 lending growth may accelerate to as much as 22 percent this year from an estimated 18 percent to 20 percent last year. 

The central bank may raise rates by 75 basis points starting in March with a possible delay to April, Chua said. Source: Bloomberg

3 Broker Asing Borong Saham Alam Sutera

Investor asing melalui tiga broker memborong saham Alam Sutera Reality (ASRI). Aksi dimotori oleh CIMB-GK Securities yang memborong 40.796 lot di harga rata-rata Rp 280. Aksi ini diikuti oleh JP Morgan sebanyak 10 ribu lot di harga Rp 280 dan Credit Suisse 4 ribu lot di harga Rp 283.

Aksi ini berhasil mengangkat saham ASRI naik Rp 15 menjadi Rp 290. Selain asing, lokal juga turut membeli saham ASRI melalui Phillip Securities sebanyak 4.687 lot dan Trimegah 3.251 lot.

1 YU CIMB-GK SECURITIES INDONESIA 236 40,796 280.19 10 1,095 281.94 39,701 41,891
2 BK J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA 49 10,000 280.00 - - - 10,000 10,000
3 CS CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA 46 4,000 283.42 - - - 4,000 4,000
4 KK PHILLIP SECURITIES INDONESIA 17 4,687 282.56 26 1,219 283.99 3,468 5,906
5 LG TRIMEGAH SECURITIES TBK. 22 3,251 284.63 26 829 286.18 2,422 4,080
62 PD INDO PREMIER SECURITIES 114 3,464 282.84 81 8,661 283.05 -5,197 12,125
63 BW BNP PARIBAS PEREGRINE - - - 36 6,000 277.92 -6,000 6,000
64 NI BNI SECURITIES 7 326 282.70 37 7,631 279.15 -7,305 7,957
65 CC MANDIRI SEKURITAS 1 35 285.00 31 13,741 278.01 -13,706 13,776

Credit Suisse Borong 36 Ribu Lot Saham Bank Rakyat Indonesia

Investor asing melalui Credit Suisse memborong 36.092 lot saham Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) di harga rata-rata Rp 4.908. Aksi beli ini berhasil mengangkat saham BRI naik Rp 200 menjadi Rp 5.000.

Selain melalui Credit Suisse, aksi beli oleh investor asing terhadap saham BBRI juga dilakukan melalui Merrill Lynch sebanyak 5.625 dan UBS Securities 5.273 lot. Lokal membeli melalui Bahana Securities 17.549 lot, Trimegah 11.619 lot, dan Kim Eng Sekuritas 26.098 lot.

1 CS CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA 850 36,092 4,908.74 65 2,321 4,924.31 33,771 38,413
2 DX BAHANA SECURITIES 248 17,549 5,071.14 203 1,576 6,607.86 15,973 19,125
3 LG TRIMEGAH SECURITIES TBK. 257 11,619 4,901.89 63 1,568 4,900.83 10,051 13,187
4 ZP KIM ENG SEKURITAS 186 26,098 7,748.29 39 19,596 8,686.36 6,502 45,694
5 ML MERRILL LYNCH INDONESIA 103 5,625 4,945.54 15 477 4,773.55 5,148 6,102
6 AK UBS SECURITIES INDONESIA 134 5,273 4,908.94 20 4,079 4,913.23 1,194 9,352
91 BW BNP PARIBAS PEREGRINE - - - 54 4,451 4,928.26 -4,451 4,451
92 DB DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA 133 8,898 4,890.40 90 15,818 4,913.20 -6,920 24,716
93 HG ABN AMRO ASIA SECURITIES INDONESIA 1 64 4,875.00 171 13,255 4,905.05 -13,191 13,319
94 RX MACQUARIE SECURITIES INDONESIA 25 7,709 4,800.50 306 34,038 4,890.68 -26,329 41,747

5 Broker Asing Borong Saham Borneo Lumbung Energy

Lima broker memfasilitasi aksi beli investor asing terhadap saham Borneo Lumbung Energy & Metal (BORN). Kelima broker itu adalah Credit Suisse yang membeli sebanyak 27.754 lot, Deutsche Securities (29.226 lot), JP Morgan (22.745 lot), Merrill Lynch Indonesia (6.117 lot), dan Macquarie Securities (8.320 lot).

Rata-rata harga pembelian investor asing melalui kelima broker itu adalah Rp 1.737-1.794. Selain asing, investor juga tidak ketinggalan mengoleksi saham ini melalui Bahana Securities sebanyak 10.845 lot dan Mandiri Sekuritas 10.010 lot. Harga BORN ditutup naik Rp 120 menjadi Rp 1.790.

Di sisi penjual, investor asing melalui broker UBS Securities melepas 86.177 lot.

1 CS CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA 248 27,754 1,794.65 4 925 1,778.11 26,829 28,679
2 DB DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA 172 29,226 1,778.73 38 3,918 1,778.59 25,308 33,144
3 BK J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA 234 22,745 1,773.44 9 1,287 1,810.88 21,458 24,032
4 DX BAHANA SECURITIES 97 10,845 1,794.69 67 5,060 1,786.85 5,785 15,905
5 CC MANDIRI SEKURITAS 169 10,010 1,781.94 50 4,775 1,778.92 5,235 14,785
6 ML MERRILL LYNCH INDONESIA 11 6,117 1,786.54 149 1,073 1,779.23 5,044 7,190
7 RX MACQUARIE SECURITIES INDONESIA 95 8,320 1,737.55 1 4,000 1,700.00 4,320 12,320
95 DP DBS VICKERS SECURITIES INDONESIA 3 650 1,779.23 59 7,963 1,785.61 -7,313 8,613
96 ZP KIM ENG SEKURITAS 111 7,596 1,758.50 207 23,897 1,776.90 -16,301 31,493
97 AK UBS SECURITIES INDONESIA 117 34,313 1,761.80 579 86,177 1,775.57 -51,864 120,490