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Thursday, May 26, 2011

Kim Eng Considering Upgrading Astra's Target Price

PT Kim Eng Securities is considering upgrading Astra’s share-price estimate after Toyota said yesterday it will expand production capacity at its Indonesian plant, the brokerage said in a note today. Kim Eng rates Astra “hold” with a stock estimate of 55,000 rupiah.

Coal India in talks to buy Golden Energy Mines to $1 bln-sources

Coal India, the world's largest coal miner, is in advanced talks to buy up to 40 percent stake in Indonesia's Golden Energy Mines in a deal valued at between $750 million and $1 billion, three sources with direct knowledge said on Thursday. 

Golden Energy is a coal mining subsidiary of energy and infrastructure firm Dian Swastatika Sentosa , and is estimated to have 400 million tonnes of reserves. 

It owns 10 coal mining areas across Indonesia including in Sumatra and Kalimantan islands in the world's top exporting nation of coal for power plants. 

State-run Coal India is half way through the due diligence for the asset and a final bid will be submitted by the end of June, two of the sources told Reuters. 

United Tractors , Indonesia's biggest heavy equipment provider controlled by the country's largest listed firm Astra International , has withdrawn from the bidding process for the asset, sources said. 

The sources declined to be named as the information is not public. Officials at Coal India, headquartered in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata, and Dian Swastatika in Jakarta could not be reached for a comment. 

Indian coal, steel and power firms have been scouting for coal assets overseas to feed power plants at home. The energy-hungry nation aims to halve a near-14 percent peak-hour power deficit within two years. Source: Reuters

Coal India in talks to buy Indonesia mines

Coal India, the world's largest coal producer, may submit a final bid by the end of June to buy a stake in Indonesia's PT Golden Energy Mines, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said. 

The state-run coal monopoly is currently doing due diligence of Golden Energy, said the person who declined to be named.

"It is not a controlling stake," the person said, and didn't provide more details. He said Coal India is yet to decide on a valuation for the stake it plans to purchase as a proposal is yet to be placed before the company's board. 

"There are various proposals in countries like Indonesia, Australia, U.S., which Coal India keeps on evaluating," the person said. 

Coal India, which contributes to more than 80% of the country's coal needs, faces several obstacles in augmenting its output such as delays in environment clearances. To meet rising demand from consumers, mainly in the power sector, the company has been scouting for mining assets overseas. More than half of India's power-generation capacity of 174.36 gigawatts is based on thermal coal. The country aims to add 163 GW of capacity in the decade through March 2017 and a major portion of the new capacity would also be dependent on fossil fuel. 

India, the world's second-fastest growing economy in the world, faces shortage of coal as environmental concerns have delayed approvals for local mining, hurting production. The country is facing a shortage of 142 million tons of coal for the current year. Local production of coal is expected to be 554 million tons against demand for 696 million tons, according to government estimates. 

PT Golden Energy is a wholly owned unit of Jakarta-based Dian Swastatika Sentosa, and is estimated to have a total coal resource of 1.2 billion tons across its 10 mining concessions in regions including South Sumatra, Central Kalimantan and South Kalimantan. 

Golden Energy exports coal to countries such as India and China and its client base includes Sumitomo Corp., Glencore and Ace Trading, according to its Web site. The company's current production capacity stands at about 10 million tons. 

The Indian company also is working on plans to import coal under long-term arrangement from global companies.
"If this deal is done, Coal India will get assured supply of coal to India from the Indonesian company," the person said.

The person also said Coal India is still evaluating a proposal to buy up to a 15% stake in U.S.-based coal producer Peabody Energy Corp.'s Wilkie Creek mine in Australia. Another person had said, previously, Coal India may buy the stake in the Australian mine for $120 million. Source: Wall Street Journal

Saham yang Dominan Dibeli Asing per 25 Mei 2011

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing per Rabu, 25 Mei 2011.
Kode Saham            Volume                       Jual                   Beli

ADMG                      18.329.500                          00                     927.500
ADRO62.652.000   16.321.50024.362.000
AMRT                           546.500                          00                      165.500
APLN                          4.602.000                          00                   2.023.500
ASGR                        11.513.500                   55.000                   1.274.500
BBKP                           8.309.500                    52.000                  4.052.000
BBNI                         22.089.500               7.713.500                  8.699.000
BHIT                         26.602.500                           00                  2.195.000
BKSL                        32.869.000                  151.000                     521.500
BNBR                     759.608.500             28.090.500                43.898.000
BORN                      68.640.500                1.268.000                30.250.500
BRPT                         2.886.500                   713.500                  1.397.500
BTEL                       20.099.000                   667.500                  7.057.500
BYAN                             133.500                            00                     110.000
CSAP                        23.876.500                           00                   2.275.000
DAVO                       34.581.000               1.750.000                   5.000.000
ENRG                    756.724.500                8.891.500                17.244.500
EXCL                         5.233.000                 1.745.000                 2.944.500
GGRM                          264.500                      97.000                    152.500
GIAA25.788.50000976.000
IDKM                       15.814.500                            00               11.070.000
INCO                          2.744.000                    686.500                1.201.000
INDY                        15.093.500                 1.165.500                5.833.500
IPOL                        150.817.000                            00                7.864.500
ISAT808.00068.000599.500
LPPS                          12.410.000                            00                1.000.000
MITI                            1.493.500                            00                1.062.000
MNCN                       15.997.000                4.681.000              10.393.500
PGAS                          19.213.500                4.974.000             13.900.000



PNIN                           29.876.500                           00                5.000.000
PWON                           7.269.000                  117.000                1.176.000
SMGR                           9.409.000                  469.500                5.170.500
TRUB                           84.446.500                           00                3.188.500
UNSP                           90.166.500                 544.000                 4.443.000













Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 26 Mei 2011


Berikut rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Kamis, 26 Mei 2011.
1. E-Trading Securities
IHSG kemarin anjlok 5,8 poin (-0,15%) ke level 3.780. Investor asing membukukan net selling Rp 270 miliar. Secara teknikal, indeks kemarin melemah dengan MA 5 dan MA 20 berpotensi membentuk deathcross. IHSG diperkirakan masih bisa rebound selama tidak break dari support channeling di level 3.760. Pergerakan indeks hari ini berada di kisaran 3.760–3.805. Cermati ASII, ASGR, dan INDY. 

2. Indo Premier Securities
Bursa Asia kemarin mayoritas ditutup turun dan flat, karena belum ada kemajuan dari krisis utang Eropa. Sementara pergerakan bursa Eropa dan New York belum berubah, seiring turunnya harga minyak mentah. IHSG hari ini berpotensi bergerak di kisaran 3.750-3800. ITMG, PTBA, INDF, BORN, BUMI menjadi saham pilihan kami.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 26 Mei 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Kamis, 26 Mei 2011.
BUY: (ADRO, GJTL, ASII, ITMG)

  • Walaupun terimbas efek negatif regional, namun IHSG masih bisa bertahan pada level terendah yang sama sehingga terlihat adanya upaya akumulasi untuk proses lanjutan kenaikan berikutnya.


  • IHSG close (25-05) 3.772.633(-13.365/-0.350%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

  • Support: 3.770-3.700, Resistance: 3,870-3.950

 

Stock picks:

1.     Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY) (Target Rp 2.450) (close 25/05 Rp 2.350)

  • Selain pembagian dividen, outlook harga batubara yang optimistis akibat permintaan meningkat dari China dan Jepang serta membaiknya produksi memasuki musim kemarau di Q2 2011 menjadi katalis positif untuk meneruskan upaya membentuk new high lagi di atas.


  • Entry (1) Rp 2.350, Entry (2) Rp 2.275, Cut loss point: Rp 2.225


 

2.    Gajah Tunggal (GJTL) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.350) (Close 25/05: Rp 3.050)

  • Pasca koreksi sebesar 10% untuk mengurangi efek jenuh beli (overbought), saham consumer automotive yang bergerak di bidang produksi ban dengan valuasi 2011 PER 8x cukup menarik untuk masuk kedalam watch list.


  • Kelihataanya bila ASII mengalami rebound maka GJTL akan mengikutinya karena bergerak dalam sektor yang sama


  • Exit (1) Rp 3.050, Entry (2) Rp 2.975, Cut-loss point: Rp 2.875

 

3.   Indo Tambang Raya (ITMG) (BUY): (Target: Rp 47.900) (Close 25/05 Rp 46.700)

  • Pasca pullback untuk membentuk pola konsolidasi dalam proses perbaikan tren sudah selesai dan kelihatannya saham ini menuju target berikutnya di Rp 47.950.


  • Memasuki musim kemarau, produksi ITMG mulai pulih sehingga kinerja profit yang naik di Q1 (hal ini membuat valuasi PER 2011 turun dari 28x ke 15x) dapat terulang untuk Q2.



  • Entry: (1) Rp 46.400, Entry (2) Rp 46.100, Cut loss point: Rp 45.600

 




4.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 59.700) (Close 25/05 Rp 57.760)

  • Koreksi sebesar 7% dari high di Rp 62.000 kelihatannya sudah mulai tertahan karena tidak ada pembentukan new low baru sehingga tinggal menunggu waktu untuk terjadinya upward retracement paling tidak ke moving average 5 dan 10 hari (Rp 59.250-59.650)


  • Entry: (1) Rp 57.600, Entry (2) Rp 57.200, Cut loss point: Rp 56.800


 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Petrosea Bagi Dividen Final Rp 1.195,50 per Saham

PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) membagikan dividen final sebesar Rp 1.195,50 per saham atau berjumlah Rp 120,57 miliar (setara dengan US$ 14 juta). Namun, kepastian tanggal pembagian dividen masih belum bisa dipastikan.

"Dividen ini akan dibagikan dua bulan setelah Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Tahunan (RUPST) ini. Namun tanggal pastinya belum dipastikan," ungkap Presiden Direktur PTRO Wadyono Suliantoro saat RUPST, di Hotel Ritz Carlton, Mega Kuningan, Jakarta, Rabu (25/5).

Dividen tunai yang dibagikan ini setara dengan 33,33% dari laba bersih 2010 yang mencapai US$ 42,2 juta. Dalam RUPST juga disetujui pengangkatan Pandri Prabono Moelyo sebagai komisaris perseroan. 

RUPST turut menyetujui penegasan kembali pemberian kuasa dan wewenang kepada Dewan Komisaris Perseroan yang telah diberikan dalam keputusan Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Luar Biasa (RUPSLB) pada 21 Oktober sehubungan dengan rencana pemecahan nilai nominal saham perseroan atau stok split. "Untuk stok spilt, nilai nominal per lembar saham adalah sebesar Rp 50 per lembar saham, namun rasionya belum kita tentukan," kata Wadyono.

LSIP Bagi Dividen Rp 61/Saham

PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (LSIP) memutuskan untuk membagikan dividen sebesar Rp 61 per saham atau setara dengan Rp 416,19 miliar dari laba bersih tahun buku senilai Rp 1,03 triliun.

Presiden Direktur LSIP Benny Tjoeng, dalam siaran persnya di Jakarta, Rabu (25/5), mengatakan, perseroan mencatat kinerja keuangan pada 2010 dengan penjualan sebesar Rp 3,59 triliun atau naik 12,3% dibandingkan dengan Rp 3,20 triliun pada 2009. Dia mengatakan, kenaikan penjualan terutama disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga karet dan produk sawit serta volume penjualan bibit sawit "SumBio".

Sedangkan beban pokok penjualan dan beban usaha relatif sama dengan tahun lalu yaitu masing-masing Rp 1,82 triliun dan Rp 371,9 miliar. Laba kotor juga tercatat naik 27,4% menjadi Rp 1,77 triliun, dengan marjin kotor sebesar 49,3% dan laba usaha naik 37,4% menjadi Rp 1,40 triliun, dengan marjin laba usaha sebesar 39%.

Sebagai hasilnya, laba bersih perusahaan pada 2010 meningkat 46,1% ke Rp 1,03 triliun, dengan marjin laba bersih sebesar 28,8% dibandingkan 22,1% pada 2009. Selain itu, lanjut dia, perusahaan berhasil melunasi seluruh sisa utang sebesar US$ 32,7 juta pada November 2010.

CPIN Siapkan Capex Rp 1,5 Triliun

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN), perusahaan produsen pakan ternak dan makanan olahan terbesar di Indonesia, menganggarkan belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) sebesar Rp 1,5 triliun atau naik 200% dari anggaran tahun lalu sebesar Rp 500 miliar.

Direktur CPIN Ong Mei Sian, di Jakarta, Rabu (25/5), mengatakan, kenaikan anggaran capex terjadi seiring rencana peningkatan ekspansi perusahaan terutama untuk menunjang bisnis pakan ternak serta makanan olahan. Dia menambahkan, capex itu akan dibagi sama rata untuk tiga divisi penjualan perseroan, yakni divisi pakan, DOC (day on chick/anak ayam umur sehari), serta makanan olahan.

"Untuk kebutuhan anggaran capex, perseroan menggunakan dana kas internal, yang saat ini sebanyak Rp 1,1 triliun. Selain itu, perseroan juga masih memiliki fasilitas pinjaman dari beberapa bank senilai total Rp1 triliun, yang bisa dipergunakan kapan saja," kata dia.

Bagi Dividen Rp 39,8/Saham
Sementara, Direktur Utama CPIN Tjiu Thomas Effendy mengatakan, hasil Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Tahunan (RUPST) menyetujui pembagian dividen sebesar Rp 652,64 miliar atau setara dengan Rp 39,8 per lembar saham dari nilai total laba bersih 2010 yang mencapai Rp 2,21 triliun.

Jadwal pelaksanaan pembagian dividen, kata dia, masih menunggu izin jadwal dari Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam LK).   "Rapat pemegang saham menyepakati pembagian dividen sebesar Rp 39,8 per lembar saham. Dengan dikalikan jumlah saham yang ada, maka total dana dividen yang dibagikan mencapai Rp 652,64 miliar," ujar dia.

Terkait catatan kinerja 2010, Tjiu mengatakan, CPIN berhasil membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 2,21 triliun atau tumbuh sebesar 37% dibanding nilai laba bersih 2009 yang tercatat sebesar Rp 1,61 triliun. Peningkatan laba bersih itu, kata dia, diantaranya disumbang dari kenaikan marjin laba kotor dari 19,8% pada 2009 menjadi 24,9% pada 2010.

"Selain itu, marjin laba usaha kami juga membaik dari 14,1% pada 2009 menjadi 18,3% pada 2010. Ini sedikit banyak menopang pertumbuhan laba bersih kami," kata dia.

Top owners eye 51 pct stake sale in Indonesia's Bank Muamalat-sources

* 51 pct stake valued at around $300 mln - sources

* Bank Muamalat says several investors interested in stake
* OCBC looked at the deal, no longer keen-sources 

Top shareholders of Indonesia's PT Bank Muamalat are looking to sell at least a 51 percent stake in the unlisted Islamic lender, in a deal that may be valued at about $300 million, sources with knowledge of the plans said on Wednesday. 

Bank Muamalat confirmed the sale process and said several investors have conducted due diligence to buy the stake. 

Singapore's second-biggest lender Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp had looked at the bank in the first round, but is no longer interested, two sources told Reuters. 

Bloomberg, which first reported the sale plan, said PT Bank Permata, a unit of Standard Chartered , Qatar Islamic Bank and OCBC were among bidders. The deal may value the bank at $600 million, it reported. 

Muamalat's total assets are 21.4 trillion rupiah ($2.5 billion). Its top three shareholders who are trying to sell the stake are Islamic Development Bank, Boubyan Bank Kuwait , and Saudi Arabia's Atwill Holdings Ltd, according to a source with direct knowledge of the deal.
These shareholders collectively control 75.7 percent of the lender, according to its website. 

Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, has a huge untapped market for Islamic banking, which local and international investors are trying to capture.
Qatar National Bank last year bought an 82 percent stake in small local lender Bank Kesawan for $82 million. 

Bank Danamon , controlled by Singapore state investor Temasek , and TPG-backed Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional also plan to expand their shariah business. 

Morgan Stanley is advising the shareholders on the sale, sources said, adding second-round bids are due in June. 

Spokeswomen for OCBC and Morgan Stanley declined to comment.
Last year, Malaysian Islamic lender Bank Islam was trying to buy a stake in Bank Muamalat but dropped the plan earlier this year. Source: Reuters

Permata Bank and OCBC Said to Bid for Bank Muamalat Indonesia

A Standard Chartered Plc (STAN) affiliate, Qatar Islamic Bank SAQ and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. are among bidders for a controlling stake in PT Bank Muamalat Indonesia, the country’s oldest Islamic bank, people with knowledge of the matter said.

Shareholders of privately held Bank Muamalat plan to sell more than 50 percent of the lender in a deal that may value it at as much as $600 million, one of the people said, declining to be identified because the talks are private. Second-round bids are due in mid-June, the people said. PT Bank Permata, an Indonesian lender 45 percent owned by Standard Chartered, is bidding for the stake, one person said. 

“It makes sense to address this segment in a big and proper way,” Sanjay Jain, a Singapore-based analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG, said of Islamic banking. “If you’re a player in southeast Asia, you’ve got to be in this segment.” 

Rising demand for Islamic banking services helped drive the Jakarta Finance Index 52 percent higher in the past 12 months. Islamic banking assets in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, grew to 100 trillion rupiah ($11.7 billion) last year from 67 trillion rupiah at the end of 2009, Mulya Siregar, the head of Shariah banking at the central bank, said in January. 

Investors in Bank Muamalat may sell as much as 80 percent of the lender, according to one person.

Muslim Population

Bank Muamalat has almost 400 offices in Indonesia and a branch in Malaysia. The lender plans to quadruple its holdings of Shariah-compliant debt this year, Chief Financial Officer Hendiarto said in a February interview. The company had about 20.4 trillion rupiah of assets as of December and targets asset growth of 50 percent this year, according to Hendiarto, who goes by one name. 

Hendiarto declined to comment on bidders for the stake. Spokespeople for Standard Chartered, Oversea-Chinese, Bank Permata and Qatar Islamic Bank declined to comment.
Indonesia is the Asia-Pacific regions third-most populous country with about 237 million people, 85 percent of whom are Muslim, the most of any nation. Demand for banking services that comply with Shariah law is increasing by about 15 percent a year and Islamic assets may reach $1.6 trillion by 2012, according to the Kuala Lumpur-based Islamic Financial Services Board. 

Companies on the 70-stock Jakarta Finance Index (JAKFIN) trade at an average 2.47 times book value, compared with 1.9 times for Chinese lenders traded in Hong Kong, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Indonesia Push

London-based Standard Chartered got more than half of its pretax profit from the Asia-Pacific region last year, Bloomberg data show. The company hired Sanjeeb Chaudhuri from Citigroup Inc. as head of consumer banking for South Asia, two people with knowledge of the matter said this month. 

The U.K. lender offers Islamic-banking services in Indonesia through its Standard Chartered Saadiq unit, and has 26 branches in the country. It also owns the stake in Bank Permata, a lender with 280 branches in Indonesia, according to Standard Chartered’s annual report.
Bank Permata shares advanced 0.6 percent to 1,690 rupiah today at 11 a.m. in Jakarta. The stock has fallen 5.6 percent this year. 

Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK), the country’s biggest Shariah-compliant lender, owns stakes in U.K., Malaysian and Lebanese lenders and may enter the Indonesian and Turkish markets, acting Chief Executive Officer Ahmad Meshari said in a May 12 interview.

Shariah Branches

Oversea-Chinese, Singapore’s second-largest lender by market value, merged its two bank subsidiaries in Indonesia this year. Bank OCBC NISP, in which the Singaporean lender has an 85 percent stake, had assets of 50.15 trillion rupiah at the end of last year, according to Oversea-Chinese’s annual report. 

Bank OCBC NISP opened three Shariah banking branches in Jakarta, Bandung and Surabaya. Together with additions of conventional bank branches, its overall network in the country increased to 409 from 382. 

Countries including Turkey, South Africa and Thailand are easing barriers to Islamic finance products to tap rising demand for such services. The world’s Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35 percent to 2.2 billion by 2030. Source: Bloomberg

Saham-Saham yang Dominan Dibeli Asing, 24 Mei 2011

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing posisi Selasa, 24 Mei 2011.
Kode Saham              Volume                Jual                  Beli
AALI                             913,500              155,000                    260,000
AKRA                        7,896,500                14,500                 1,118,000
AMAG                     86,559,500           5,553,000                 6,385,000
APLN                    8,558,00000                                              3,514,000
BBKP                      12,268,000                 44,000                 7,779,000
BBTN                         6,343,000                34,500                    492,500
BHIT                        25,830,500                        00                    908,500
BNGA                         1.191.000                  31.500                   510.000
BNII300.00083.500123.000
BRMS                      33.753.000                100.000                3.563.500
BRPT                          5.170.000                387.500                1.287.500
BSDE8.017.5002.106.5002.923.500
BTEL                          7.474.500                 230.500                5.956.500
CPIN                         12.243.500              1.530.500                1.968.000
CTRP                           7.176.500              1.041.500                2.500.000
DAVO                        19.707.500                          00                2.799.000
ELTY                       432.843.000                  592.500                3.055.500
ENRG                     889.624.000                6.516.500              14.554.000
EXCL                          9.985.000                1.425.500                4.165.000
HRUM                        1.965.500                     20.000                   647.500
IDKM                     2.935.50000                                                1.934.500
IGAR9.075.00000744.000
INCO                           7.136.500                   281.000                4.424.000
INRU                                80.000                            00                     75.000
INTA2.407.50000650.000
JPFA                                862.500                       5.000                  427.500
KRAS                         27.393.500                            00                1.641.000
LSIP                           11.215.500                 1.568.500                2.756.000
MAIN                          1.721.000                             00                   150.000
MASA                        24.416.500                    500.000                2.847.000
MITI                       3.284.00000                                                   1.887.500
MNCN                       18.588.500                  5.114.000                9.451.500
PNBN                           5.276.000                             00                    143.000
PNIN2.045.50000668.500
POLY                          46.977.000                    317.000                 3.400.000
PWON                        11.530.000                        5.000                  2.414.000
SMGR                          9.194.000                 3.420.500                  6.565.500
SSIA                              4.268.000                             00                     750.000
TRUB                         231.674.000                             00                  2.500.000
UNSP                         245.338.500                  339.000                   2.625.000
UNTR4.005.0001.235.5001.884.000
WIKA                             1.298.500                     13.500                      787.000
WINS1.984.500592.500783.000





Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 25 Mei 2011

Berikut rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Rabu, 25 Mei 2011.
1. E-Trading Securities
IHSG kemarin naik 7,4 poin (0,20%) ke level  3.785 dengan volume transaksi 14 juta lot senilai Rp 4,2 triliun. Asing membukukan net selling Rp 451,4 miliar. Secara teknikal, kemarin candlestick IHSG membentuk pola hammer di area lower bollinger band.  Sedangkan indikator Stochastic tampak bergerak downtrend. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak rebound di kisaran 3.750–3.818. Cermati BORN, DEWA, dan PTBA. 

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas 
Secara teknikal, indeks hari ini diperkirakan bergerak mixed pada kisaran 3.763-3.805. Pergerakan bursa regional masih akan memengaruhi IHSG. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan MYOR, PTBA, PGAS, BSDE.

3. Erdhika Sekuritas
Penguatan saham-saham pada sektor agriculture dan infrastructure mampu mendongkrak indeks kemarin. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran 3.773-3.793. Saham rekomendasi kami, PGAS, CPIN, PTBA.

Riset Bulanan HD Capital

Monthly Strategy-May (24-05-2011) (BUY):   "BUY in May and don't go away"

  • BUY in May and don't go away: Penembusan all time (3.872) high di awal bulan May menandakan bahwa mitos koreksi siklus pasar yang biasanya terjadi di bulan May kelihatannya tidak akan terulang tahun ini.

  • Domestic factor: Dari segi domestic berbagai katalis positif seperti BI rate tetap, inflasi terkendali (May diperkirakan akan terjadi deflasi lagi) serta laba dalam laporan keuangan berbagai emiiten yang naik di Q1 2011 (hal ini menurunkan valuasi PER dan membuat analis upgrade earnings target kedepan) dapat membuat IHSG mencoba untuk break high dan menuju level 4.000 di akhir bulan Juni.


  • Regional: Pada intinya ketakutan pelaku pasar bahwa stimulus akan dicabut telah dijawab oleh keputusan Bernanke untuk mempertahankan Fed funds rate karena perekonomian AS belum pulih sepenuhnya dan inflasi masih dalam batas toleransi, sehingga hal ini masih mendukung liquiditas yang menuju ke emerging market dan komoditas.

 

  • Rekomendasi Portofolio & Target Price 1-bulan:


 

Ticker
TP 1 bln
PER11F
PBV11F
ROE11F
ASII
Rp.63.500
15x
3.5x
29%
INDF
Rp.5.650
14x
2.6x
18%
BBNI
Rp.4.000
14x
2x
15%
BUMI
Rp.3.550
16x
4x
19%
BBRI
Rp.6.650
12x
4x
31%
PTBA
Rp.22.500
15x
5x
42%
SMGR
Rp.10.000
16x
4x
27%



 

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital.