Newmont's Indonesia unit to seek $500 mln via IPO - sources

* Listing to value Indonesia unit at about $5 bln - sources
* Newmont to sell 1.128 bln new shares, option for existing shares
* Legal issue regarding share ownership could be an obstacle
 
PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), the Indonesian unit of U.S. miner Newmont Mining Corp , is seeking to raise about $500 million in an initial public offering in Jakarta by selling a 10 percent stake within the next twelve months, sources said on Wednesday.

The IPO would mark the first listing by a gold and copper miner on Indonesia's stock exchange, though it could be delayed by legal issues surrounding the planned divestment of another stake to local partners.

"We're looking at a $5 billion valuation for the whole firm," said one of the four sources with knowledge of the deal, who declined to be identified because the details were not public.
Newmont is expected to sell up to 1.128 billion of new shares and may also sell an option of an additional 880 million existing shares owned by local partner PT Pukuafu Indah, the source added.

The firm could raise more than $500 million if it exercises the option.

Although there is no official mandate for underwriters, sources said UBS has been tapped to be one of the lead underwriters and other banks will be added once the firm completes a deal to divest a 7 percent stake to local partners, two sources said.

UBS is also the advisor for the divestment stake sale, a source said.

"What we can confirm to you now is that NNT's intention to do an IPO has been discussed in its previous shareholders meeting and supported by the majority of shareholders," Rubi Purnomo, Newmont's Indonesia spokesman, told Reuters.

"The IPO plan is one of the financing options for NNT to develop the company's operation," he said. "At the moment, we are focusing on finalizing the divestiture obligation."

Newmont and Japan's Sumitomo Corp , the majority owners in NNT, were ordered by an Indonesian arbitration court in 2009 to reduce their holding in NNT to less than 50 percent by selling to local investors.

Newmont and the government have agreed on $271.6 million as a price for the divestment of a final 7 percent stake, after Newmont sold the rest to PT Multi Daerah Bersaing -- a consortium of the governments of West Nusa Tenggara province, West Sumbawa regency, Sumbawa regency and PT Multicapital, a unit of Bumi Resources Minerals.


However a Jakarta court said in late 2010 that PT Pukuafu Indah was entitled to a 31 percent stake, a ruling Newmont is appealing against.

The Indonesia unit of the world's No.2 gold producer runs the Batu Hijau copper and gold mine in West Nusa Tenggara province. Batu Hijau, on eastern Sumbawa island, is the nation's second biggest copper mine.

"It will be one of the biggest IPOs this year and there should be huge demand for it," said Harry Su, head of research at PT Bahana Securities in Jakarta. "It depends on the timing and valuation, but we expect market sentiment to improve in the second half." 

Investors have sold Indonesian stocks this year on worries over inflation and to take profits on a 46 percent rally last year. Still, longer-term sentiment on Southeast Asia's largest economy remains positive because of its resources and growing consumer demand. 

The IPO would come after a strong rally in commodity prices, with gold hitting a record high this week and copper hitting a record last month. Source: Reuters

Bank Rakyat to Sell Up to $500 Million of Debt

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia plans to sell $300 million to $500 million of subordinated debt in the second half of this year, Achmad Baiquni, a director at Bank Rakyat, told reporters in Jakarta today. Source: Reuters

Indonesia's domestic car sales in Feb up 24.8 pct y/y

Indonesia's total domestic car sales, an indicator of consumer demand in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, were 69,489 units in February, up 24.8 percent from the same month last year, automotive association data showed on Tuesday.

However, domestic car sales in February declined 5.8 percent from January's 73,761 units. 
Sales volumes in February were led by Toyota as usual, though Mitsubishi displaced Daihatsu for the second spot, according to the Indonesian Automotive Association (Gaikindo) data.
The country's largest automotive distributor Astra International has said it expects car sales volumes of 800,000 units this year. Source: Reuters

Indonesia's weather agency says dry season to start May-June

* Palm oil, rubber, coffee areas in Sumatra to have drier weather in May
* Dry season in coal-producing Kalimantan to start in June
* Tin-producing Bangka island still to have rains until June


Indonesia's dry season will start in most areas around May-June, earlier than the previous forecast of July and offering a timely boost to the country's agricultural and mineral sectors, the weather bureau said on Tuesday.

The dry season normally runs from April to Sept/Oct, but the country is in the middle of a wetter-than-expected rainy season that has affected plantation crops and could hit resource exploitation.

"The dry season will start in 65 zones in May, while 68 zones or 30.9 percent will enter the dry season in June," Sri Woro, head of the Climatology, Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), told a news conference.

Indonesia's sprawling archipelago is divided into 220 weather zones.The agency in January forecast Indonesia would have rains until June, and that the dry season would not start in most areas until July.


Areas that will start the dry season in May include Riau, north Sumatra and Jambi, Indonesia's key palm oil- and rubber- producing areas, the agency said.

Indonesia is the world's top producer of palm oil and world's second largest producer of rubber. Robusta coffee-growing area of Lampung and key cocoa-growing area of South Sulawesi will also start the dry season in May, which will be in time for the main cocoa and coffee harvest season.

The drier weather will help coffee cherries to ripe and prevent spread of black pods in cocoa.

Indonesia expected coffee output to fall by 30 percent this year as prolonged rains in Sumatra have caused coffee flowers and young cherries to rot, the Indonesia Coffee Exporters Association said.

Cocoa production in the world's third largest producer after Ivory Coast and Ghana, was also expected to fall slightly this year as the wet weather has worsened attack of pests and disease.
The dry weather will expand to more areas in June, including Kalimantan, Indonesia's main source of coal on Borneo island.

The main tin-producing Bangka-Belitung islands will not have drier weather until July. Rains hit productivity last year at smaller coal miners such as Bayan Resources and reduced 2010 tin output from the world's top exporter of the metal. 

The price of silvery, malleable metal -- used for soldering electronic goods and packaging -- has seen prices soar to a record $32,799 a tonne in mid-February on concern of tight supplies from Indonesia. 

Tin price has eased to below $30,000 a tonne this week, but has gained 11.5 percent so far this year.

Source: Reuters

Indonesia's Visi Media Plans IPO Later This Year - Official

PT Visi Media Asia, or Viva, will offer shares to the public later this year to raise funds for business expansion, its Chief Executive Officer Anindya Bakrie said Tuesday.

Bakrie said the owner of two local channels Anteve and TV One and online news portal Viva News has appointed Credit Suisse, PT Danatama Sekuritas and PT Ciptadana Sekuritas as joint lead underwriters for the planned initial public offering. 

According to a banker familiar with the deal, Viva will likely sell up to 40% of its stake to raise around $1 trillion ($114 million).

The Bakrie Group owns a 92.5% stake in Viva, and Star TV the remaining balance. Source: Automated trader

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 9 Maret 2011

Hari ini, Rabu 9 Maret 2011, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihannya untuk dibeli, yakni PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA), Astra International (ASII), Bumi Resources (BUMI), dan Krakatau Stell (KRAS).

BUY: (PTBA, ASII, BUMI, KRAS)

* Koreksi akibat imbas regional Dow Jones yang memerah tidak mempunyai efek banyak terhadap tren keseluruhan IHSG yang tetap berhasil ditutup diatas MA-

* IHSG close (08-01) 3.564.732(+4.076/+0.18%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

* Support: 3.530-3.470-3.360, Resistance: 3,580-3,630-3,750

Stock picks:

1. Bukit Asam (PTBA): (BUY) (target: Rp 21.100) (close 08/03 Rp 20.450)

* Outlook harga minyak dan batubara yang diperkirakan terus mengalami peningkatan dan proyek rel kereta api ganda rampung di 2012 mendongkrak PTBA keluar dari trading range untuk mengalami proses uptrend recovery dengan misi mengetes moving average 50-harian di Rp 21.100.

* Indikator stochastic dan MACD harian sudah memberikan "BUY" signal dengan konfirmasi dari volume yang lebih tinggi dari 8 hari sebelumnya.

* Entry (1) Rp 20.400, Entry (2) Rp 20.100, Cut loss point: Rp 19.800

2. Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 57.200) (Close 08/03 Rp 55.200)

* Efek dari pajak progressive untuk level daerah yang berjalan lamban tidak akan berpengaruh banyak terhadap tren penjualan mobil kedepan sehingga proyeksi laba 2011F sebesar Rp 13,8 triliun dapat tercapai

* Riset fundamental HD capital mempunyai target 12-bulan di Rp 80.000 dengan asumsi PER 2011 15x dan profit 2010F sebesar Rp 12,5 triliun (hasil kinerja profit 2010 actual: Rp 14,4 triliun).

* Entry (1) Rp 55.200, Entry (2) Rp 54.900, Cut loss point: Rp 54.100

3. Bumi Resources (BUMI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.150) (Close 08/03 Rp 3.025)

* Sentimen negatif dari proses transaksi saham Vallar di bawah harga pasar kelihatannya sudah tercermin dalam koreksi pasar.

* Pasar sekarang melihat ke sinergi alliansi BUMI-Vallar dalam proses mengurangi utang sebesar $100 juta dimana pengurangan beban utang dan bunga akan sangat membantu dari segi laba.

* Secara technical ma 10 & 50 hari memberikan signal beli dengan upside menuju Rp 3.150.

*

Entry: (1) Rp 3.000, Entry (2) Rp 2.900, Cut loss point: Rp 2.850

4. Krakatau Steel (KRAS) (BUY) (Target: Rp 1.190) (close 08/03 Rp 1.130)

* Harga baja diperkirakan naik 30% untuk offset meningkatnya biaya produksi akibat kenaikan energy batubara dan mulai pulihnya permintaan dari industry mobil dan konstruksi.

* Secara technical penutupan diatas 5-days MA (Rp.1.100) cukup baik untuk confirm signal buy dari daily stochastic dan MACD

* Entry (1) Rp 1.120, Entry (2) Rp 1.080, Cut loss point: Rp 1.060

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 8 Maret 2011

Rekomendasi tiga sekuritas ternama untuk Selasa, 8 Maret 2011.

 
1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan kemarin, IHSG ditutup naik 18 poin (0,53%) ke level 3.561,72, setelah sempat turun seiring kembali naiknya harga minyak mentah. Kemarin, asing membukukan net buying Rp 443 miliar. Secara teknikal, indeks membentuk pola hanging man yang mengindikasikan adanya reversal di mana indikator MACD masih mencoba memasuki area positif dan stochastic sudah berada di area overbought. Adapun MA 5 berpotensi golden cross dengan MA 60. Untuk perdagangan hari ini, indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak di kisaran 3.507–3.569. Cermati BRPT, HRUM, dan PGAS.

2. Kresna Sekurindo

IHSG kembali melanjutkan penguatan kemarin dan berhasil ditutup di atas resistance 3.550. Namun, investor perlu mewaspadai tekanan jual mengingat stochastic telah memasuki area jenuh beli. Hari ini , indeks diperkirakan masih berkonsolidasi di kisaran 3.530-3.600. PGAS, PTBA, dan AALI menjadi saham-saham pilihan kami. 

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Pada perdagangan Selasa (8/3/11), secara teknikal indeks masih berpeluang menguat secara terbatas pada kisaran 3.545-3.580. Terdapat kemungkinan adanya aksi profit taking dipicu gejolak Timur Tengah. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain PGAS, GGRM, BWPT dan SMGR.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 8 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Selasa, 8 Maret 2011, dengan merekomendasikan opsi beli terhadap empat saham pilihannya, yakni Semen Gresik (SMGR), Astra International (ASII), Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM), dan Adaro Energy (ADRO).

BUY: (SMGR, ASII, TLKM, ADRO)

• Walaupun tergerus profit taking, IHSG masih bisa maintain closing diatas moving average 50-hari (3.530), menandakan bahwa breakout dari formasi konsolidasi segitiga (flag) masih berjalan.

• IHSG close (07-03) 3.548.732(+5.788/+0.18%) (Val.Rp.3.4T) 

• Support: 3.500-3.430-3.350, Resistance: 3,580-3,630-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.      Semen Gresik (SMGR): (BUY) (target: Rp 9.200) (close 07/03 Rp 8.850)

• Secara technical mulai membangun momentum dengan buy signal dari stochastic daily yang sudah di atas 50-line dan MACD daily buy di atas zero line.

• Langkah berikutnya adalah melihat bila kenaikan berlanjut maka akan terjadi golden cross dari ma 10-50 hari sehingga confirm breakout dari formasi konsolidasi.

• BI rate tetap positif untuk permintaan kredit sektor properti sehingga secara tidak langsung akan terimbas ke emiten semen yang mempunyai margin keuntungan di atas developer properti.

• Pasar belum sepenuhnya price in potensi penambahan kapasitas produksi di 2011-2012 dari pembangunan pabrik baru.

• Entry (1) Rp 8.800, Entry (2) Rp 8.650, Cut loss point: Rp 8.500

 

2.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 56.200) (Close 07/03 Rp 55.200)

• Kinerja profit 2010 Rp 4 triliun, yang 15% di atas konsensus analisis membuat pelaku pasar optimistis akan performance untuk tahun ini, sehingga bila terjadi koreksi minor rekomen akumulasi untuk misi selanjutnya menembus resistance down-trend-line di Rp 56.200.

• Entry (1) Rp 54.200, Entry (2) Rp 53.500, Cut loss point: Rp 52.900

 

3.   Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.450) (Close 07/03 Rp 2.375)

• Penurunan kinerja produksi di 2010 yang sebenarnya masih in-line dengan proyeksi analis sudah cukup tercermin dalam koreksi harga, sehingga pelaku pasar akan lebih focus ke kinerja produksi Q 2011 yang diperkirakan dapar membaik versus 2H 2010 yang terimbas factor hujan (cuaca buruk)

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.350, Entry (2) Rp 2.300, Cut loss point: Rp 2.250

 

4.  Telekomunikasi (TLKM) (BUY) (Target: Rp 7.600) (close 07/03 Rp 7.350)

• Valuasi yang sangat menarik (PER 2010 12x/PBV 3.4x, PER 2011F 9x/PBV 2.5x) dan ROE 27% dapat membuat pelaku pasar untuk akumulasi emiten big cap index driver yang sudah lama tak kunjung naik dalam keadaan terkonsolidasi cukup lama ke resistance moving average 50-hari di Rp 7.600. 
  
  
• Entry (1) Rp 7.350, Entry (2) Rp 7.250, Cut loss point: Rp 7.150

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Indonesia Stock Rally Depends on Oil Price, Danareksa Says

Indonesian stocks depend on a drop in oil prices to extend a rally that has driven the benchmark index to a seven-week high, the nation’s top brokerage said. 

The Jakarta Composite index may climb further provided corporate earnings weather higher fuel costs exacerbated by government restrictions on the sale of subsidized fuel, according to Chandra Pasaribu, head of equity research at PT Danareksa Sekuritas, voted Indonesia’s best domestic brokerage in 2010 by Finance Asia magazine. 

The stock gauge has climbed 6.5 percent from a four-month low on Jan. 24 after data showed February inflation eased. The central bank kept interest rates unchanged on March 4 while highlighting rising price pressures. Middle East tensions have driven oil prices to a 29-month high, threatening to raise expenses for Indonesia, which imports about 47 percent of its fuel, according to data from state oil company PT Pertamina. 

“The market needs to overcome two hurdles, namely the fuel subsidy limits and the price of oil,” Jakarta-based Pasaribu said in an interview last week. “People need time to digest before deciding whether the negative impact of the subsidy cuts justifies the market valuation.” 

The Jakarta Composite rose 0.5 percent to 3,561.72 as of the 4 p.m. local-time close. The gauge’s shares trade at an average 14 times estimated profit, within 10 percent of the lowest level since May, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Valuations may increase to 15 times by the end of the year, said Pasaribu, who declined to give an index target.

Valuations May Rise 

He recommends buying PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia and PT Indofood Sukses Makmur, which owns Indonesia’s biggest instant-noodle maker. 

Oil futures have surged 16 percent this year, threatening to increase fuel subsidy costs at a time when Indonesia plans more infrastructure spending to boost growth. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has pledged to double infrastructure spending to $140 billion during his second five-year term to deliver average growth of 6.6 percent. 

Curbing subsidized fuel consumption may help the country cut subsidy spending in the state budget by 8.9 percent, Yudhoyono said in August. Fuel subsidies now account for 11.5 percent of government spending, official data show. 

Owners of private cars will be barred from buying subsidized diesel and gasoline in Jakarta and surrounding areas, Evita Legowo, the Energy Ministry’s director general of oil and gas, said in December. 

‘Long-Term Confidence’

The government has subsidized fuel prices since the 1950s to lower living costs for Indonesians, 29 percent of whom live on less than $2 a day. The price for Pertamina’s unsubsidized Pertamax fuel is between 8,100 and 10,450 rupiah a liter as of March 1 depending on location, according to data on the company’s website. Its subsidized fuel, known as Premium, is sold at 4,500 rupiah a liter nationwide. 

“There’s short-term cautiousness but long-term confidence in the Indonesian economy,” Pasaribu said. “Our economy is quite attractive to provide an upside potential for stocks.”

Moody’s Investors Service in January raised Indonesia’s credit rating to the highest level since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, citing “economic resilience” and improving public debt. Moody’s Ba1 rating is one step below investment grade. Indonesia’s economy grew 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace in six years. 

Pasaribu hadn’t changed his views on Indonesian equities following Bank Indonesia’s March 4 decision to leave its benchmark reference rate at 6.75 percent, the analyst wrote in an e-mail yesterday. 

Buying Opportunity

Shares dropped this year amid concern Bank Indonesia has fallen behind its peers in raising interest rates to curb rising prices. Bank Indonesia raised the rate last month by a quarter percentage point after opting not to join counterparts from Malaysia to India in increasing borrowing costs in 2010. 

Inflation slowed to 6.84 percent in February from a year earlier, compared with 7.02 percent the previous month. Efforts to tame inflation have been sufficient and price increases will slow in the second half of the year, Deputy Governor Hartadi Sarwono said in a Feb. 24 interview. 

“Any correction in stocks caused by the market thinking that the central bank isn’t in favor of raising rates is an opportunity to enter,” Pasaribu said. “There will be pain in terms of inflation. On the other hand, the government will have the money for its pro-growth policies and that’s the good news that will come out in the future.” Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia cbank gov sees core inflation under 5 pct this yr

Indonesia's central bank governor Darmin Nasution said on Friday he saw core inflation at under 5 percent this year.

Bank Indonesia earlier on Friday decided to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate on hold at 6.75 percent, as forecast by a slender majority of economists, saying it was monitoring increasing core inflation.

Annual core inflation in February picked up to 4.36 percent.Source: Reuters

ndonesia stats chief sees March inflation same or less than Feb

The head of Indonesia's statistic agency (BPS) said on Friday that March inflation would likely be similar or less than that of February's 6.84 pct, and food prices were likely to decline further. Source: Reuters

S.Korea Honam says considering Indonesia petchem complex

South Korea's Honam Petrochemical said on Friday it was considering building a petrochemical complex in Indonesia, which the market estimates could cost up to 5 trillion won ($4.49 billion).

Asia's No.2 petrochemical maker reported to the stock market that it was considering building petrochemical plants in foreign countries including Indonesia under its mid- and long-term plans, although nothing had been finalised.

It currently has a combined production capacity of 2.5 million tonnes per year in South Korea and Malaysia where it had received takeover approval from shareholders of Malaysia's largest petrochemical maker Titan Chemicals TTNP.KL last December. Source: Reuters

Indonesia says Caterpillar to build new factory worth up to $1 bln

* Denies Indonesian statement that would build new factory

* Existing Indonesian facility employs 200

U.S equipment maker Caterpillar Inc plans to build a new manufacturing plant in Indonesia worth between $500 million to $1 billion of investment, said Gita Wirjawan, Indonesia's investment chief, on Friday.

Wirjawan told Reuters in an interview last year that Caterpillar might pick Indonesia as its Southeast Asian manufacturing base.

But Caterpillar Inc separately denied. Caterpillar said has no plans to build a new factory in Indonesia, a spokesman for the world's largest maker of heavy equipment said on Friday.

"We have not announced, neither to the Indonesian government nor otherwise, that we plan to build a new factory in Indonesia," Caterpillar spokesman Jim Dugan said.

Caterpillar has a factory in Indonesia that employs about 200 people making bulldozers and excavators. "Anywhere in the world where we have a presence there is always a possibility that we could increase our presence in that location, but beyond that there is nothing new to add," Dugan said. Source: Reuters and Reuters1

Timah’s Tin Production Disrupted in First Quarter, Reuters Says

PT Timah’s tin production was “affected” in the first quarter because bad weather disrupted shipping, Reuters said, citing an interview with Timah Chief Executive Officer Wachid Usman.

Most of Timah’s ships couldn’t operate, “affecting our first quarter production,” Wachid said, according to Reuters. Output is expected to pick up in the second and third quarters and then drop in the fourth again due to weather, Reuters said. Timah is Indonesia’s largest tin producer. Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 7 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Senin, 7 Maret 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan Jumat (4/3), IHSG ditutup naik 48 poin (1,38%) ke level 3.542,9 menyusul sentimen positif dari bursa AS, turunnya harga minyak dunia, dan BI rate yang tetap di level 6,75%. Asing Jumat lalu melakukan net buying Rp 837 miliar dengan sektor yang paling banyak dimasuki adalah banking dan mining. Secara teknikal,  indikator RSI masih bergerak uptrend dan stochastic memasuki area overbought, sehingga indeks berpeluang menguat terbatas. Pada perdagangan Senin (7/3), indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.513–3.588. Cermati SMGR, BBRI, dan UNTR.

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Secara teknikal, indeks hari ini berpotensi menguat terbatas pada kisaran 3.510-3.575. Keputusan BI menahan BI rate di level 6,75% memberikan sentimen positif terutama pada sektor perbankan dan pertambangan. Selain itu, data tingkat pengganguran AS juga dapat memberikan sentimen positif terhadap indeks. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain MYOR, AALI, INCO, dan UNTR

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani

IHSG  pada perdagangan Jumat lalu menguat 48,36 poin ke level 3.542,9 dipimpin oleh semua sektor, terutama komoditas, industri dasar, keuangan, properti. Ini sejalan dengan penguatan indeks bursa global, pemulihan ekonomi global, dan langkah BI mempertahankan BI rate, serta apresiasi rupiah terhadap dolar AS. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan menguat berfluktuasi dengan potensi profit taking pada kisaran 3.530-3.570.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 7 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi empat saham pilihan HD Capital untuk perdagangan Senin, 7 Maret 2011. Rekomendasi beli Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI), Astra International (ASII), Bank Mandiri (BMRI), dan Krakatau Steel (KRAS).

BUY: (ASRI, ASII, BMRI, KRAS)

* Bila terjadi koreksi akibat imbas regional dan keadaan overbought (jenuh beli) rekomen akumulasi untuk antisipasi technical rebound.

* Kenaikan yang terjadi di atas moving average 50-hari (3.530) IHSG menandakan sudah breakout dari formasi konsolidasi segitiga (flag) dan siap masuk kembali dalam fase short-term up-trend.

* IHSG close (04-03) 3.542.903(+48.364/+1.38%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

* Support: 3.530-3.500-3.350, Resistance: 3,580-3,630-3,750

Stock picks:

1. Alam Sutera (ASRI): (BUY) (target: Rp 270) (close 04/03 Rp 255)

* Optimisme pertumbuhan laba 30% untuk 2011 yang didorong oleh permintaan perumahan dan suku bunga kondusif (BI rate tetap) menjadi katalis untuk akumulasi emiten properti yang mulai memasuki fase pola perubahan tren sideways ke positif.

* Entry (1) Rp 250, Entry (2) Rp 240, Cut loss point: Rp 230

2. Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp.56.200) (Close 04/03 Rp.54.900)

* Penjualan mobil di bulan Januari yang naik 5% versus Desember merupakan awal bagus sehingga banyak analis optimistis menaikkan target pertumbuhan penjualan mobil 2011 dari 7 hingga 12%.

* Bila ada koreksi minor dari keadaan jeniuh beli pasca kenaikan berhari2 rekomen akumulasi.

* Entry (1) Rp 54.200, Entry (2) Rp 53.500, Cut loss point: Rp 52.750

3. Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.350) (Close 04/03 Rp 6.200)

* Dana besar (13T) pasca rights issue untuk ekspansi kredit dengan target di atas 18% setahun, valuasi PER 2011F di 12-13x serta keadaan technical menarik dalam pola pembentukan minor uptrend membuat BMRI perlu dilirik oleh pelaku pasar.

* Entry: (1) Rp 6.050, Entry (2) Rp 5.900, Cut loss point: Rp 5.700

4. Krakatau Steeel (KRAS) (BUY) (Target: Rp 1.080) (close 04/03 Rp 1.050)

* Kenaikan batubara di atas $130/ton (batubara digunakan dalam proeses produksi baja) membuat pelaku pasar berspekulasi kalau harga baja domestik akan dinaikan dalam jangka waktu dekat ini.

* Entry (1) Rp 1.040, Entry (2) Rp 1.020, Cut loss point: Rp 990

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 4 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari dua sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Jumat, 4 Maret 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan kemarin, IHSG naik 8 poin (0,24%) ke level 3.494,54, menyusul aksi beli investor asing maupun domestik. Hal ini tak lepas dari inflasi Februari yang lebih rendah dibanding prediksi. Secara teknikal, ruang penguatan IHSG mulai terbatas, di mana indikator stochastic sudah mulai memasuki area jenuh beli dan MACD mulai bergerak landai. Hari ini indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.455–3.568 dengan saham–saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain INDF, KRAS, dan BBCA.

2. Kresna Sekurindo

IHSG masih konsolidasi sambil menunggu keputusan suku bunga dari Bank Indonesia. Inflasi yang lebih baik dari ekspektasi membuat sebagian pelaku pasar berharap BI rate tetap di level 6,75%. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.450-3.530 dengan MEDC dan AALI sebagai saham pilihan hari ini.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan kemarin, IHSG naik 8 poin (0,24%) ke level 3.494,54, menyusul aksi beli investor asing maupun domestik. Hal ini tak lepas dari inflasi Februari yang lebih rendah dibanding prediksi. Secara teknikal, ruang penguatan IHSG mulai terbatas, di mana indikator stochastic sudah mulai memasuki area jenuh beli dan MACD mulai bergerak landai. Hari ini indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.455–3.568 dengan saham–saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain INDF, KRAS, dan BBCA.

2. Kresna Sekurindo

IHSG masih konsolidasi sambil menunggu keputusan suku bunga dari Bank Indonesia. Inflasi yang lebih baik dari ekspektasi membuat sebagian pelaku pasar berharap BI rate tetap di level 6,75%. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.450-3.530 dengan MEDC dan AALI sebagai saham pilihan hari ini.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 4 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari HD Capital untuk perdagangan Jumat, 4 Maret 2011. 

BUY: (ELTY, UNTR, ITMG, JSMR)

• BI rate tetap dan imbas positif dari penguatan rupiah dan bursa regional mendorong IHSG untuk tutup kembali di atas level psikologis 3.500.

• Bila kenaikan dapat bertahan di atas moving average 50-hari (3.530) IHSG sudah breakout dari formasi konsolidasi segitiga (flag) dan masuk dalam fase short-term up-trend

• IHSG close (03-01) 3.509.161(+22.968/+0.65%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

• Support: 3.500-3.430-3.350, Resistance: 3,580-3,630-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.      Bakrieland Development (ELTY): (BUY) (target: Rp 160) (close 03/03 Rp 144)

• BI rate tetap di 6.75% sangat kondusif untuk pertumbuhan permintaan kredit perumahan, sehingga emiten dengan PBV 2011 murah (0.6x) kedua setelah BKSL (0.4x) dapat melajutkan short-term up-trend pasca konsolidasi ini diatas level psikologis Rp 150 dengan target seterusnya di Rp 160.

• Entry (1) Rp 143, Entry (2) Rp 139, Cut loss point: Rp 134

 

2.   United Tractors (UNTR) (BUY): (Target: Rp 24.000) (Close 03/03 Rp 23.300)

• Hasil penjualan alat berat di bulan Januari yang meningkat ke level tertinggi sejak 2 tahun terakhir menandakan bahwa tren penjualan kelihatannya akan berlangsung positif untuk keseluruhan tahun 2011 walaupun diprediksi terjadi curah hujan lebat yang ditakutkan menggangu aktivitas pertambangan.

• Pasar optimistis bahwa proyeksi pertumbuhan laba dapat mengalami potensi upside adjustment ke depan

• Entry (1) Rp 23.250, Entry (2) Rp 23.000, Cut loss point: Rp 22.750

 

3.   Indo Tambang Raya (ITMG) (BUY): (Target: Rp 43.700) (Close 03/03 Rp 42.150)

• Bila masih ada penekanan lebih lanjut akibat downgrade profit oleh beberapa analis fundamental yang sebenarnya sudah terdiskon oleh koreksi dari seminggu lalu, rekomen akumulasi karena memasuki level oversold dengan potensi terjadi technical rebound.

• Sentimen positif dari kemungkinan rencana pembayaran dividen sebesar 70-80% dari EPS 2010 dengan persetujuan pemegang saham utama Banpu juga menjadi pemicu untuk menarik bargain hunters

• Entry: (1) Rp 41.900, Entry (2) Rp 2.800, Cut loss point: Rp 2.700

   

4.  Jasa Marga (JSMR) (BUY) (Target: Rp 3.450) (close 03/03 Rp 3.275)

• Beberapa katalis seperti total volume kendaraan di bulan Januari 2011 mencapai 83,3 juta (naik 8,4% yoy, turun 2,1% mom), sebuah awal yang baik karena biasanya volume kendaraan turun di awal tahun, pembangunan tahap 1 seksi I jalan tol Semarang Solo sepanjang 11,3 km dapat mendorong JSMR untuk mengetes resistance di down-trend-line Rp 3.430.
• Bila JSMR berhasil ditutup di atas Rp 3.430 maka confirm bahwa tren 3- bulan mendatang sudah berubah menjadi uptrend positif 
• Entry (1) Rp 3.250, Entry (2) Rp 3.175, Cut loss point: Rp 3.050

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Jakarta Setiabudi Bentuk Dua Anak Usaha Baru

PT Jakarta Setiabudi Internasional Tbk (JSPT) pada 1 dan 2 Maret 2011 telah membentuk dua anak perusahaan baru melalui PT Hotel Investama Realty (HIR). HIR dimiliki oleh JSPT dengan kepemilikan sebesar 99,97%.

Dua anak usaha baru yang dibentuk oleh HIR itu adalah PT Bangun HOtel Nusantara dan PT Bumi Kelola Selaras. BHN bergerak di bidang pemilikan, pembangunan, pengelolaan, penjualan, dan persewaan bangunan hotel dan fasilitasnya baik sendiri maupun dengan bermitra. Modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh BHN oleh HIR adalah sebesar Rp 1,499 miliar. 

Sedangkan BKS bergerak dalam bidang pemilikan, pengelolaan dan penjualan berbagai rupa bangunan baik sendiri maupun dengan bermitra. Modal ditempatkan adalah sebesar Rp 1,499 miliar. Demikian keterbukaan informasi Direktur JSPT Lim Merry kepada Bursa Efek Indonesia. (Link BEI).

Listrik Seeks $10 Billion in Financing for Capex Through 2015

PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara, Indonesia’s state utility, seeks to raise as much as 88 trillion rupiah ($10 billion) in financing through 2015 as it expands capacity to meet increasing demand for electricity. 

Listrik Negara will spend 310 trillion rupiah on capital expenditure over five years, of which 66 trillion rupiah will be spent this year, Finance Director Setio Anggoro Dewo said. 

The money will come from bond sales, new and existing loans and internal cash, he said.

“That is our mid-term plan,” Dewo said in a phone interview today in Jakarta, adding that some funding will come from the government budget. 

Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, is increasing domestic use of natural gas to make up for falling crude output from aging fields, which led to the country withdrawing from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in 2008. 

Listrik Negara plans to build new power plants generating 23,525 megawatts of power to increase its total capacity to 55,484 megawatts by 2019, Dewo said. The plans to increase electricity costs to consumers by 10 percent from 2012 to 2013, and by 2.7 percent from 2014 to 2015, he said. 

Listrik Negara may consume 3.5 percent more natural gas this year as it reduces the use of oil as a fuel at its power plants, Nur Pamudji, primary energy director, said Feb. 25. Gas consumption may increase to 293 trillion British thermal units this year from 283 trillion British thermal units last year, he said. 

The plan will result in 150 megawatts of power capacity being switched to gas from oil, and reduce fuel costs by as much as $120 million this year, Pamudji said. 

To support the increase in demand for the cleaner burning fuel, Listrik Negara is considering building a liquefied natural gas-receiving terminal in Bekasi, east of Jakarta, with an annual capacity of 1.5 million metric tons, Pamudji said. 

Listrik Negara plans to raise its gas-fired power capacity to 21,000 megawatts by 2019 from 9,800 megawatts currently, Planning Director Nasri Sebayang said Feb. 24. Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia petro assoc says cabotage rule losses may be $12.57 bln/y

The Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) told parliament on Thursday that a proposed cabotage rule which prohibits foreign-flagged vessels could cause a potential investment loss of as much as US$12.57 billion per year to the oil and gas industry.

Association President Ron Aston said the figure was the estimated potential investment loss coming from the four biggest oil and gas contractors operating in Indonesia -- Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Total E&P Indonesie, and ExxonMobil. Source: Reuters

UBS’s Nizam Says Tolerance of Inflation a Rupiah Risk

Nizam Idris, a Singapore-based currency strategist at UBS AG, the world’s second-largest foreign-exchange trader, comments on the impact of inflation on Indonesia’s rupiah. 

“We expect the rupiah to appreciate 4.5 percent next year, but this year is a harder call. The risk with the rupiah is more short-term rather than long-term, emanating primarily from inflation and the way Bank Indonesia handles it. Once you’ve passed the inflation issue toward the end of this year, then we see clearer appreciation. 

“Bank Indonesia could afford to be a bit more aggressive, the market would like that. The point is the market dislikes a wishy-washy approach toward handling inflation. When you lose touch with inflation and then you have to catch up on hiking rates aggressively, the risk of outflows from the equity and bond markets will be massive. 

“I’m neutral on the rupiah; unless there’s some weakness and Bank Indonesia reacts with a hike, then that’s where you would want to be opportunistic.” Source: Bloomberg

PBB Group to expand flour milling business in SE Asia-media

Malaysia's PPB Group plans to spend 140 million Malaysian ringgit ($46.1 million) to double its flour production capacity in Indonesia and Vietnam over the next two years, state news agency Bernama said in a short messaging system alert on Thursday.

PPB Group is an affiliate company of Singapore-listed agribusiness Wilmar International , which has been looking to expand its wheat flour milling business.

Separately, the Edge newspaper quoted PPB Group managing director Tan Gee Sooi as saying the firm wanted to double its Indonesian plant capacity to 2,000 tonnes.
The capacity in Vietnam will also be doubled to 800 tonnes, the newspaper said. ($1 = 3.036 Ringgit). Source: Reuters

Indonesia's Air Asia picks CIMB, Credit Suisse for IPO

PT Air Asia Indonesia, a unit of Malaysia's Air Asia Berhad , has picked CIMB Securities and Credit Suisse as underwriters for its initial public offering this year, said an executive at the firm on Thursday.

The budget airline has said that it plans to raise between $150 million to $200 million in an IPO in the third or fourth quarter.Source: Reuters

Wilmar eyes Indonesia's consumer flour market in 2012

Wilmar International , the world's largest listed palm oil company, plans to enter Indonesia's consumer flour market, possibly in 2012, which will intensify the competition in the country, sources familiar with the plan told Reuters. 

Wilmar might use flour mills owned by the unit of Malaysia's PPB Group in Indonesia and use its own distribution network to sell the flour, said one of the sources, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the plan. 

Wilmar was not immediately available for comment. 

PPB's unit, FFM Berhad, has a milling capacity of around 1,000 tonnes per day and the group plans to spend $46 million to double its flour production capacity in Indonesia and Malaysia over the next two years, state news agency Bernama said. 

Wilmar recently bought a 20 percent stake in FFM. 

Indonesia's flour market is dominated by Bogasari Flour Mills, a unit of instant noodle maker Indofood Sukses Makmur , which has a total flour milling capacity of 15,000 tonnes per day. Source: Reuters

Shemberg moving carrageenan plant to Indonesia

Philippines’ largest carrageenan producer Shemberg Corp. is moving to Indonesia as part of a P1.5-billion repositioning to locations that are more abundant with seaweed raw materials.

The prospective plant in Makassar, Indonesia will be the new site for its 7,000 metric ton (MT) capacity semi-refined carrageenan plant. It wiill source cottonii seaweed variety in Makassar which is known to grow this abundant variety.

“We expect Indonesia to produce 200,000 tons (of cottonii seaweed by 2011). Our cottonii production dropped from 150,000 to 80,000 tons. Indonesia is financing its farmers.

They don't have an option, but to plant seaweeds while we have (an option to send our people abroad as) OFWs (overseas Filipino workers)," said Benson U. Dakay, Shemberg president, in a press briefing.

Shemberg is also moving out from its existing 25-hectare carrageenan manufacturing plant in Mandaue City to two other locations – Maasin, Zamboanga and Carmen, also in Cebu.

It will relocate its 2,000 MT gel fresh carrageenan plant to Zamboanga and its 1,000 MT refined iota spinossum to Carmen.

"It will be P500 million for each movement. We need to go where the raw materials are," said Dakay.

Shemberg's plant in Mandaue City has just actually received an environmental award under Nestle's "Greening the Supply Chain Program."

This is for compliance with the Department of Environment and Natural Resources' regulations specifically for wastewater treatment facility efficiency, efficient flue gas scrubbers for coal-fired boilers, energy reduction, water conservation, chemical reduction, solid waste and packaging materials reduction and recycling, and environmental protection (mangrove planting).

However, the company needs to relocate its plant to Indonesia since Indonesia is set to ban seaweed export by 2012.

Indonesia has been the source of the Philippines for cottonii seaweeds since the country's production has declined over the past few years. The country imported around 80,000 MT of cottonii from Indonesia last year.

"It's advisable for us to move a portion of our factory there (because) they will ban export by 2012," he said. It takes around two years to build a carrageenan plant. Cottonii seaweeds are the raw materials for carrageenan which in turn is an input for other food-based products particularly as a binder or extender in meat products, ice cream, and gelatines. Cottonii-carrageenan producers need to keep price competitiveness since this semi-refined product may be substituted with other starch-based inputs.

The company is relocating to Indonesia as soon as it is able to sell its entire 25-hectare plant in Mandaue City as it will finance its relocations from the sale of this property. The 25-hectare plant is in the South Reclamation Project which has already become urbanized. At a P30,000 per square meter prevailing market price, the property will generate P7.5 billion that it can use for the relocations.

The company will also use the proceeds of the property's sale to pay for the retirement of some workers, estimated at around 1,000, that will be displaced from the relocation. Some of the workers may also choose to relocate to Indonesia, Zamboanga, or Carmen. Estimated retirement payment is at P200 million while the company will also allocate P500 million to pay off debts. Source: Manila Bulletin

Jasa Marga to Acquire Three Toll Roads Concessions

Toll road operator PT Jasa Marga aims to invest
11.89 trillion rupiah ($1.35 billion) to acquire and develop
three toll road concessions, said Reynaldi Hermansjah, the
company's finance director. 

The three toll roads include the
14.5 km Cinere - Jagorawi toll road with total investment of 2.1
trillion rupiah, the 18.6 km Waru - Tanjung Perak road worth 6.5
trillion rupiah and the 10.4 km Serpong - Cinere road worth 3
trillion rupiah. The company has also increased capital
expenditure to 7.4 trillion rupiah from an earlier target of 6.2
trillion.

EMTK Akuisisi 27,24% saham Indosiar

PT Elang Mahkota teknologi Tbk (EMTK), induk usaha Surya Media Media (SCMA) operator televisi SCTV, mengakuisisi 27,24% saham Indosiar Karya Media Tbk (IDKM) milik PT Prima Visualindo. Harga akuisisi adalah Rp 900/saham.

Dalam keterbukaan informasinya, Direktur Utama EMTK Susanto Suwarto menjelaskan, perjanjian jual beli bersyarat saham IDKM dilakukan pada 1 Maret 2011. Nilai akuisisi 551.708.684 saham IDKM (setara dengan 27,24%) itu adalah Rp 496,54 miliar. Tujuannya untuk mengendalikan IDKM.

Terhitung sejak saat penyelesaian rencana pengambilalihan saham IDKM itu, EMTK akan melakukan penawaran tender saham-saham IDKM yang masih ada di publik. Jumlah nilai dari rencana pengambilalihan saham IDKM dan tender offer akan dibiayai dari sumber internal dan peminjaman.

BUMI Eksekusi Convertible Note Bumi Resources Mineral 9 Maret 2011

PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) akan mengonversi mandatory convertible note PT Bumi Resources Mineral Tbk (BRMS) menjadi saham pada 9 Maret 2011.

Jumlah convertible saham yang dikonversi menjadi saham setara dengan Rp 4,96 triliun dengan harga konversi Rp 670/saham. Jumlah saham yang diterbitkan mencapai 7.401.541.000 saham baru yang akan dicatat atas nama PT Bumi Resources Tbk selaku pelaksana konversi.

"Sehubungan dengan eksekusi ini, kami mohon kesediaan Bursa Efek Indonesia untuk mencatat saham-saham hasil konversi convertible note tersebut," jelas Corsec BRMS Muhammad Sulthon kepada otoritas BEI, di Jakarta, Rabu (2/3).

 

Laba Petrosea Melonjak Hingga 2.557%

Perolehan laba bersih PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) 2010 melonjak hingga 2.557% dari sebelumnya US$ 1,59 juta menjadi US$ 42,25 juta. Peningkatan laba dipicu naiknya pendapatan dan turunnya beban lain-lain.

Berdasarkan laporan keuangan Petrosea yang dipublikasikan di situs Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Rabu (2/3), beban lain-lain turun dari US$ 35,3 juta menjadi US$ 1,08 juta. Perseroan juga berhasil mencetak keuntungan selisih kurs sebesar US$ 1,36 juta dari sebelumnya rugi US$ 4,5 juta.

Perseroan membukukan pendapatan sebesar US$ 186,9 juta, naik dibanding 2009 US$ 171,8 juta. Laba usaha turun dari US$ 39,4 juta menjadi US$ 38,2 juta.

Di sisi lain, kewajiban lancar perseroan mencapai US$ 66,32 juta mencapai US$ 120,67 juta. Laba bersih per saham mencapai US$ 0,42 per saham.

“Adapun ekuitas naik 50% menjadi US$ 120 juta, dari sebelumnya US$ 80 juta,” ujar Wakil Direktur Utama Petrosea Wadyono Suliantoro.

Petrosea adalah perusahaan kontraktor pertambangan yang 98,5% sahamnya dimiliki PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY). Indika mengakuisisi 81,95% saham Petrosea milik Clough International Singapore Ltd pada Juli 2010. Sementara sisanya sisanya merupakan saham publik. Proses akuisisi dan penawaran tender saham publik pada waktu itu dilakukan pada harga Rp 11.550 per saham.

Total nilai kontrak Petrosea hingga pertengahan Oktober 2010 mencapai US$ 600 juta. Pada September 2010, perseroan memperoleh tambahan kontrak sebesar US$ 18,5 juta. Kontrak itu berupa penyediaan jasa suplai based sebagai kontraktor pertambangan batubara di Kalimantan Timur yang berada Total E&P.

Indonesia's Angkasa Pura, India's GVK to develop new $500mln Java airport

Indonesian airport operator PT Angkasa Pura I plans to build new airport in Yogyakarta with India's GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd worth 5 trillion rupiah ($567.4 million), an Angkasa Pura's executive said on Tuesday.

The project is a part of preliminary agreement signed by both parties in January this year to invest between $3 - $5 billion over the next four years to build international airports in Bali and Java.

"We're going to set up a joint-venture for the purpose next year," said Tommy Suetomo, Angkasa Pura's chief executive officer.

Inadequate infrastructure in Southeast Asia's largest economy is seen as both a hurdle to growth and a cash-making opportunity, with the government looking for the private sector to fund two-thirds of its needs.

Indonesia is India's third-largest trading partner in South East Asia and bilateral trade was $10 billion in 2008, according to the Ministry of External Affairs. ($1 = 8,812.500 Indonesian Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 3 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari HD Capital untuk Kamis, 3 Maret 2011, dengan opsi beli terhadap saham Astra International (ASII), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF), dan Bank Mandiri (BMRI).

BUY: (ASII, BBRI, INDF, BMRI)

• Koreksi yang terjadi akibat tekanan regional membuat beberapa saham big cap index movers menarik lagi untuk diakumulasi 

• Asing masih terlihat melakukan net buy di beberapa big cap movers dalam sektor consumer dan perbankan seperti ASII, INDF, BBRI, & BMRI karena saham2 tersebut memang masih murah secara valuasi (diperdagangkan dibawah PER 15x 2011) dan akan diuntungkan dari BI rate tetap untuk bulan Maret ini.

• IHSG close (02-01) 3.486.306(-26.769/-1.01%) (Val.Rp.3.04T) 

• Support: 3.430-3.350, Resistance: 3,530-3.560-3,650

 

Stock picks:

1.      Astra International (ASII): (BUY) (target: Rp 56.000) (close 02/03 Rp 54.000)

• Semua ketakutan pasar mengenai pajak progressif, kenaikan suku bunga BI rate, rencana pembatasan BI rate di bulan Juli tidak mempengaruhi minat investor untuk akumulasi saham ini, yang kelihatannya akan mencoba megetes resistance berikutnya di garis downtrendline Rp 56.000.

• Walalupun terimbas profit taking, namun net buy asing berhasil menutup ASII di atas level support Rp 53.300 sehingga misi untuk mencoba melewati Rp 54.200 dan menuju ke Rp 56.000 akan tetatp berlanjut

• Entry (1) Rp 53.800, Entry (2) Rp 53.500, Cut loss point: Rp 53.200

   

2.   Bank BRI  (BBRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 5.150) (Close 02/03 Rp 4.900)

• Inflasi Februari 0.40% yang lebih rendah dari Januari (0.80%) membuat BI rate akan stabil di 6.75% sehigga struktur sumber pendanaan BBRI yang murah masih dapat dipertahankan untuk medukung proyeksi pertumbuhan kredit di atas 23% tahun ini.

• Riset fundamental HD capital mempunyai target 12-bulan di Rp 6.000 dengan asumsi PER 2011 18x/PBV 3.7x

• Entry (1) Rp 4.850, Entry (2) Rp 4.700, Cut loss point: Rp 4.625

  

3.   Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp 4.950) (Close 02/03 Rp 4.825)

• Secara valuasi PER 2011F 12x/PBV 2.3x dan dengan ROE 2011 di atas 25%, emiten consumer ini sangat menarik untuk dilirik investor asing yang melihat ada potensi keuntungan arbitrase dari upside adjustement yang dapat terjadi

• Entry: (1) Rp 4.800, Entry (2) Rp 4.600, Cut loss point: Rp 4.600

 

4.  Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY) (Target: Rp 6.150) (close 02/03 Rp 5.900)

• Selain dana ekspansi yang cukup pasca rights issue untuk melanjutkan
  pertumbuhan kredit agresif dan suku bunga BI rate tetap Maret, penguatan rupiah juga meringankan beban debitur yang berutang dalam US$ 

• Entry (1) Rp 5.800, Entry (2) Rp 5.700, Cut loss point: Rp 5.550

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 3 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Kamis, 3 Maret 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan kemarin, indeks turun 26 poin (-0,75%) ke level 3.486,20, menyusul kembali naiknya harga minyak yang menjadi sentimen negatif bagi kebanyakan bursa global. Asing melakukan net selling Rp 17 miliar dengan sektor yang paling banyak keluar adalah sektor energi dan pertambangan. Secara teknikal, indeks terlihat masih dalam fase konsolidasi dengan indikator stochastic dan MACD menunjukan kecenderungan menguat. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.432–3.547. Cermati BBTN, LSIP, dan JSMR.

2. Kresna Sekurindo

Sentimen global yang kurang kondusif terkait kenaikan harga minyak membuat IHSG masih belum berhasil menembus resistance 3.530. Dengan demikian, hari ini indeks diperkirakan masih cenderung berkonsolidasi di kisaran 3.433-3.510. BBTN dan TLKM menjadi saham pilihan kami.

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Saham-saham sektor industri dasar, infrastruktur, dan tambang menyeret indeks ke zona merah kemarin, seiring anjloknya indeks bursa global. Hal ini tak lepas kenaikan harga minyak mentah yang kembali menembus US$ 100 per barel, akibat pergolakan sosial politik di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara, serta kekhawatiran pemulihan ekonomi global. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan mixed melemah pada kisaran 3.455-3.508.