Chicken or beef? Investors face tough choice with Garuda IPO

* Foreign investors baulk at rich valuations, govt interference
* Stake sale may be cut to $350 mln if demand weak - minister

National carrier PT Garuda Indonesia's hopes for a high-flying $1.1 billion IPO may fail to get off the ground because it has been priced so richly that foreign investors have been scared away. 

Indonesia will set the final price for the long-delayed Garuda offer later on Tuesday, but after riding a surge in interest in Southeast Asia's largest economy and a recovery in the global airline industry, appetite for the deal has sharply fallen. 

Several local and foreign institutional investors briefed by Garuda during a global roadshow over the past two weeks have snorted at pricing that sets shares in the airline at 750 to 1,100 rupiah -- valuing it far higher than more successful regional competitors. 

"We did look at it, but didn't participate and for reasons you already know," said a fund manager who asked not to be identified. "If I reveal those, I will be refused entry into Indonesia on my next trip." 

Investors attracted to Indonesia's booming economy are wary of state interference in a country where some of the biggest enterprises are owned by the government, giving them big advantages over private firms. 

Garuda's IPO has already involved the highest levels of power, with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his top advisers consulted when airline and privatisation officials went against the advice of the book valuers' suggested range of 560-850 rupiah, sources close to the deal say. 

SIZE MAY BE CUT

The government was accused by some critics of selling off assets cheaply last year when the IPO for Krakatau Steel was heavily oversubscribed after being priced at the bottom of the range. 

Mustafa Abubakar, the state-owned enterprises minister, told Reuters late Monday that cutting the number of shares on offer to raise only $350 million was one option that could be considered in the event of weak demand. 

Garuda is offering a 36.5 percent stake, or 9.362 billion new and existing shares, and if the top end of the range is met it would make it second only to the launch of PT Adaro Energy , which raised $1.3 billion in 2008. 

Garuda's price range reflects 7.4 to 10.8 times its Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA, said Iman Rachman, head of investment banking at Mandiri Sekuritas, one of the local underwriters. 

That is higher than regional peers such as Singapore Airlines with an EV to EBITDA at 4.8 times, and Thai Airways at 4.9 times, according to data from Thomson Reuters' Starmine.

Garuda' IPO is the first of a slew of state enterprises due for flotation this year and will also be closely watched by flag carrier Vietnam Airlines, which is planning to go public this year. 

"Don't even ask about international investors," one person familiar with the IPO told Reuters, adding that any interest was focused at the bottom end of the range.

"Garuda will probably get zero international clients at the end of the day. It's that bad." 

Government officials hope that even if institutional investors stay away, shares in Garuda -- named for a mythical giant bird -- will be snapped up by locals keen to own a part of a national treasure. 

Pandu Djajanto, privatization deputy for the state-owned enterprises ministry, said the price reflected a sentimental value of local investors and that Garuda "is our nation's pride".

Even if Indonesians can be persuaded to invest, the offering comes as Jakarta stock exchange has dipped 10 percent this year due to concerns over rising inflation and fears the central bank, which has kept benchmark interest rates at a record low of 6.5 percent for over 18 months, is behind the curve. 

That said, it comes following a year in which Indonesia has been a darling of emerging market investors who have poured billions into equities and bonds, attracted by returns and yields that developed economies can only dream of. 

Garuda, founded in 1949, has flown into difficulty in recent years and only last year was allowed to resume flights to European Union countries after being banned because of concerns over safety standards following a spate of accidents. 

It also experienced significant debt problems, converting loans from Bank Mandiri into a 10.6 percent stake in the carrier, which will be sold off in total if the IPO is fully realised.

Indonesia remains a promising market for airlines, however, with increasing air travel amongst a burgeoning middle class in the world's fourth most populous country across the archipelago's 17,000 islands and beyond. 

Citigroup and UBS are joint bookrunners on the deal. Source: Reuters

Tugu Pratama aims to sell 30 pct stake via IPO in H1

PT Tugu Pratama, an Indonesian insurance firm majority owned by state-oil and gas firm Pertamina, plans to launch an initial public offering in the first half of 2011 by selling 20 to 30 percent new shares, Frederick Siahaan, a Pertamina's director, said on Tuesday.

Siahaan declined to comment on how much the company expects to raise, but Pertamina currently owns a 65 percent stake in the firm. Source: Reuters

Goldman Revises Down Rupiah Forecast to 9,000 in Three Months

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its three-month forecast for Indonesia’s rupiah to 9,000 per dollar from 8,750, citing financial-market volatility. 

Bank Indonesia will boost its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75 percent when it meets on Feb. 4, according to a Goldman Sachs research report released today. Consumer prices in Southeast Asia’s largest economy rose 6.96 percent in December, the most in 20 months, according to official data. 

“We believe intensifying inflationary pressure is now the dominating factor for monetary policy,” Enoch Fung, a Hong Kong-based economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in the report. “We expect to see more gyrations in financial markets at the early stage of the policy tightening cycle.” 

The rupiah gained 0.2 percent to 9.053 per dollar as of 10:44 a.m. in Jakarta. The currency has declined 0.8 percent this month after rallying 4.6 percent last year. 

Goldman also revised its six- and 12-month forecasts for the rupiah to 8,800 and 8,700, from 8,600 and 8,450 respectively. Bank Indonesia will boost its policy rate by 100 basis points in the first half and another 50 basis points in 2012, the report said. 

Inflation may accelerate to 7.5 percent in the first quarter and 7.7 percent in the second quarter, versus previous estimates of 6.4 percent and 6.2 percent respectively, the report said. Source: Bloomberg

Copper ends up, tin hits record on supply concerns

* Tin strikes record at $28,190 a tonne

 * Copper to average $9,663/T this year - Reuters poll

 * Investors keep eye on lead dominant position

 * Coming up: U.S. consumer confidence data on Tuesday

 

Copper ended up for a second consecutive day on Monday, and tin prices notched a new record high as supply-side constraints reinforced a bullish outlook for both metals.  Down about 5 percent from all-time records this year at $9,781 per tonne in London and $4.4980 per lb in New York, copper prices regained their composure late last week in anticipation of robust Chinese demand prospects, even as fears of tighter monetary policies
there remained. 

London Metal Exchange (LME) copper for three-month delivery CMCU3 closed up $88 at $9,529 a tonne. COMEX March copper HGH1 added 3.95 cents to settle at $4.3485 per lb, after dealing between $4.3090 and $4.3725.

LME tin CMSN3 hit a record high of $28,190 a tonne, before ending the day at $28,095, up $350 from Friday's close.  "Tin and copper are very supply constrained metals, that's not
going to be resolved for many months, if not years," Robin Bhar, an analyst at Credit Agricole, said.

Indeed, a widening market deficit could propel copper to new record highs this year, as exchange-traded products and a narrowing supply surplus buoy prices, according to a Reuters poll.

The consensus of 50 forecasts showed the cash copper price CMCU0 would average $9,663 a tonne this year.  Tin is forecast to rise almost 38 percent this year, according to the average of 24 forecasts, the Reuters poll showed, driven by dwindling reserves, rising demand, and unusually wet weather in big producer Indonesia.Source: Reuters

Mandiri set to raise $1.3 bln in rights

* Mandiri set to raise 11.7 trln rph-term sheet

* Mandiri set rights price indication at 5,000 rph/share

* Placement on govt portion set at 5,150-5,200 rph/share

* Set to be Indonesia's second-biggest rights issue 

PT Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK), Indonesia's biggest lender, was set to raise 11.69 trillion rupiah ($1.3 billion) in a rights issue, set to be Indonesia's second-biggest rights offering, based on the term sheet obtained by Reuters on Monday.

The rights issue price indication of 5,000 rupiah per share, just below the mid point of the previously indicated 4,000 to 6,150 rupiah range, is a 9.1 percent discount to Mandiri's close on Monday of 5,500 rupiah.

The state-owned bank's capital raising will be the second biggest rights issue in Indonesian after PT Bakrie and Brothers (BNBR.JK) raised about 40 trillion rupiah in 2008.

However, it becomes the nation's biggest rights offering by a bank, beating an issue of Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.JK) which raised 10.46 trillion rupiah in December 2010.

Mandiri had planned to raise between 13 trillion rupiah and 14 trillion but dropped the size as investors drove the Jakarta stock market .JKSE down more than 10 percent from its record high set early this month due to inflation worries.

Shares in Mandiri, which has a market capitalisation of $12.8 billion, are down almost 15 percent so far this year, while the Jakarta index .JKSE dropped 10.2 percent.

The bank will issue 2.34 billion new shares through a rights issue, diluting the government's stake to 60 percent.

The government portion will be sold in a placement and has been priced at an indicative 5,150 to 5,200 rupiah, or a 5.5 to 6.4 percent discount to Monday's close.

The price is subject to the approval of a shareholder meeting on Jan. 28.

Most of the capital raised would be used to fund loans while the rest would be used for acquisition opportunities in insurance firms, the bank has said.

The bank has picked Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) and Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC.N) as joint global coordinators for the offering, with CLSA Asia Pacific Market and Citibank (C.N) as joint global bookrunners. Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 25 Januari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari empat sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Selasa, 25 Januari 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan kemarin, IHSG ditutup turun 33 poin (-0,99%) ke level 3.346,06, melanjutkan koreksi yang terjadi selama tiga hari berturut-turut. Penurunan masih di range yang tidak jauh dari hari sebelumnya dengan volume perdagangan 5,1 miliar senilai Rp 4,1 triliun. Hari ini indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.327- 3.407, di mana pelaku pasar masih mencermati kondisi ekonomi dan moneter Indonesia. Bargain hunting kemungkinan bisa memicu penguatan sejumlah saham. Amati BBRI, BBTN, dan INDF.

2. Erdhika Sekuritas

Seluruh sektor kemarin melemah, khususnya sektor properti sebesar 5,25%.  Hari ini indeks diprediksi bergerak di kisaran 3.313-3.588 dengan saham-saham pilihan BBTN, MEDC,TLKM  

3. Kresna Sekurindo

IHSG mulai berkonsolidasi meskipun masih berada di area negatif. Indeks hari ini diperkirakan masih sideways di kisaran 3.310-3.400. Level 3.310 menjadi level kunci bagi pergerakan indeks. TLKM dan MEDC menjadi saham pilihan hari ini.  

4. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Aksi jual asing kemarin berlanjut, terutama untuk saham-saham komoditas, industri dasar, properti. Ini menyusul kekhawatiran kenaikan suku bunga dan setelah Presiden SBY menyetujui redenominasi rupiah. Hari ini indeks diperkirakan bergerak mixed dengan potensi rebound pada kisaran 3.310-3.380. Buy BBRI, INDF, SMCB, dan hold INTP, MEDC, dan jual BMRI, JSMR.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 25 Januari 2011

HD Capital merekomendasikan opsi beli terhadap saham Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID), Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF), dan Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), untuk Selasa, 25 Januari 2011.

BUY: (DOID, BUMI, INDF, BBRI)

* IHSG mulai memasuki tahap awal konsolidasi tren (sideways) dalam keadaan jenuh jual ekstrim pasca koreksi dalam minggu lalu.

* Kelihatannya beberapa saham berkapitalisasi besar dan kecil mulai memasuki daerah oversold untuk scenario potensi technical rebound.

* IHSG close (24-01) 3.341.020(-33.280/-0.99%) (Val.Rp.4.7T)

* Support: 3.280-3.200-3.150, Resistance: 3.450-3.550-3.650

Stock picks:

1. Delta Dunia (DOID): (BUY) (Target: Rp.1.400) (close 24/01 Rp.1.280)

* Optimistis bahwa pada 2011 DOID akan memulai berbalik dengan menunjukkan pertumbuhan laba yang pesat, margin stabil yang didorong oleh bertambahnya kontrak penggalian batubara serta potensi refinancing utang dengan biaya bunga yang lebih rendah.

* Valuasi 2011 PER 11x/PBV 4x terlihat menarik untuk bargain hunting.

* Secara technical ada keadaan oversold & stochastic buy menunjukan kalau kekuatan tren turun mulai berkurang dan potensi technical rebound dapat terjadi.

* Entry: (1) Rp 1.270, Entry (2) Rp 1.250, Cut loss point: Rp 1.220

2. Bumi Resources (BUMI) (BUY): (Target: Rp.3.300) (Close 24/01 Rp.3.025)

* Kelihatannya saham ini stabil di-maintain di atas level psikologis 2.900 sehingga potensi bermain di atas level Rp.3.100 cukup terbuka.

* Eksposur ke ekspor (90%) membuatnya sangat diuntungkan dari kenaikan harga batubara dan potensi adjustmen ASP atau harga jual rata2.

* Valuasi 2011F PER 9x/PBV 2.5x membuatnya termurah di sektornya

* Entry (1) Rp 2.950, Entry (2) Rp 2.850, Cut loss point: Rp 2.725

3. Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp 4.900) (Close 24/01 Rp 4.575)

* Kenaikan harga gandum akan dapat memaksa persero untuk menaikan harga jual mie instan sebesar 10-15% Maret ini untuk memperbaiki margin.

* Secara technical terjadi divergensi di daily stochastic yang tidak membentuk new low dalam koreksi dari Rp 4.800 ke Rp 4.300.

* Entry: (1) Rp 4.550, Entry (2) 4.450, Cut loss point: Rp 4.300

4. Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY) (Target: Rp 5.100) (close 24/01 Rp 4.875)

* Valuasi 2011F PER/PBV (11.2x/2.7x) yang cukup murah dan profitabilitas tinggi (ROE 27% & NPM 21%) menjadikan ini kandidat untuk rebound dari keadaan jenuh jual (oversold).

* Emitten ini cukup terinsulasi dari resiko external dan CAR 11% dibawah standard industry.

* Rencana persero untuk lebih aktif bergelut di perkotaan belum sepenuhnya dihargai oleh pasar.

* Entry: (1) Rp 4.850, Entry (2) Rp 4.750, Cut-loss point: Rp 4.600

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Modernland Targetkan Penjualan Properti Tumbuh 112%

PT Modernland Realty Tbk. menargetkan penjualan properti tahun ini tumbuh 112 persen dibanding tahun lalu, menyusul membaiknya pasar properti dan kondisi makro ekonomi serta stabilnya suku bunga Kredit Pemilikan Rumah (KPR).

"Jika tahun lalu, penjualan kami Rp250 miliar, maka tahun ini kami targetkan tumbuh 112 persen atau mencapai Rp530 miliar," kata Chief Marketing Officer PT Modernland Realty Tbk Andy K Natanael saat dihubungi di Jakarta, Minggu (23/1).

Menurut Andy, pada tahun ini pihaknya akan menggenjot penjualan dengan berbagai cara antara lain membangun properti yang dibutuhkan masyarakat dan memberikan berbagai kemudahan kepada pembeli.

Salah satunya, lanjutnya, adalah gebrakan di awal tahun ini dengan meluncurkan The Golf Residence yakni hunian yang langsung menghadap lapangan golf di perumahan Kota Modern, Tangerang.

"Peluncuran perdana (launching) dilakukan Sabtu, 22 Januari 2011 di Kota Modern dan ini kesempatan langka. Pertama dan satu-satunya rumah yang langsung menghadap lapangan golf dengan harga yang sangat terjangkau," katanya.

Andy menyatakan, salah satu bentuk optimisme tumbuhnya pasar properti tersebut antara lain dibuktikan ketika The Golf Residence diluncurkan, dalam waktu hanya tiga jam, sudah terjual 85 persen senilai Rp125 miliar," katanya.

The Golf Residence sendiri, kata Andy, hingga saat ini menelan investasi sebesar Rp150 miliar.

The Golf Residence dibangun di atas lahan seluas 4,5 hektare dan letaknya di padang golf modern island`s yang akan dibangun sebanyak 123 unit rumah. Namun, pada tahap pertama akan dipasarkan 62 unit untuk tahap pertama.

"Biasanya, untuk memiliki rumah yang tepat berada di sekeliling lapangan golf membutuhkan dana yang sangat besar, karena minimal tanah yang dijual sekitar 1.000 meter. Nah, kami menghadirkan The Golf Residence dengan harga di bawah Rp1,5 miliar, fantastis kan?," kata Andy.

Ada empat tipe rumah yang ditawarkan. Pertama, tipe 8 dengan luas tanah 160 m2 dan luas bangunan 142 m2 yang mempunyai jumlah kamar 3 + 1 serta luas kamar 4 x 3,75 meter (kamar utama). Kedua, tipe 9 dengan luas tanah 180 m2 dan luas bangunan 150 m2 yang mempunyai jumlah kamar 3 + 1 serta luas kamar 5 x 3,75 meter (kamar utama).

Ketiga, tipe 10 yang mempunyai dua tipe yakni dengan luas tanah 200 m2 dan luas bangunan 177 m2 yang mempunyai jumlah kamar 4 + 1 serta luas kamar 4 x 4 meter (kamar utama) dan satu lagi luas tanah 220 m2 dan luas bangunan 177 m2 yang mempunyai jumlah kamar 4 + 1 serta luas kamar 4 x 4 meter (kamar utama).

Keempat, tipe 11 dengan luas tanah 264 m2 dan luas bangunan 249 m2 yang mempunyai jumlah kamar 4 + 1 serta luas kamar 5 x 5 meter (kamar utama).

The Golf Residence dilengkapi fasilitas pendukung antara lain children play ground, sport club, kolam renang, gajebo, barbeque park, basket 3 on 3, taman reflexy dan jogging track yang view-nya langsung ke lapangan golf sehingga mata serasa dimanjakan dengan indahnya rerumputan nan hijau.

Itu, belum termasuk fasilitas lainnya yang sudah ada di Kota Modern seperti Padang Golf Modern (18 hole & night golf), Sport Club (Badminton, Tennis Indoor, Swimming Pool, Fitness Centre, Aerobik, Squash, Table Tennis, Basket Ball, Futsal, dll), Metropolis Town Square (Mal terbesar & terlengkap di Tangerang), Rumah Sakit Mayapada, Sekolah Harapan Bangsa & BPK Penabur, restaurant, dll.

Lokasi The Golf Residence yang strategis yakni di jantung kawasan perumahan Kota Modern seluas 470 ha yang saat ini sudah dihuni lebih dari 4.000 kepala keluarga (KK). Dari total lahan yang ada, saat ini tersisa sekitar 50 Ha.

Sisanya terus dikembangkan secara bertahap dan rencananya disebut-sebut, PT Modernland Realty Tbk. akan menggarap Kota Modern Extention (Kota Modern tahap ke-2).

Jalan akses Menyinggung soal jalan akses, kata Andy, pihaknya menjamin, kawasan ini memiliki lima akses yakni Tol Merak, Tol Bandara Sedyatmo, jalan Raya Daan Mogot, Jalan Raya Serpong, dan Jalan Cipondoh Raya. "Jika menggunakan kendaraan pribadi, waktu tempuh ke Bandara Soekarno Hatta hanya 10 menit," katanya.

Sementara itu, akses tol menuju bandara Soekarno Hatta segera dibangun. Pembebasan lahan sepanjang 14 Km akan dimulai tahun ini dan pembangunan di perkirakan dimulai tahun 2012. Akses tol menuju bandara tersebut akan melewati kawasan Kunciran, Cipondoh, dan Benda.

"In-Out tol tersebut akan berada dalam kawasan Modern Extention sehingga akan membuat perkembangan dan pertumbuhan bisnis yang sangat luar biasa terutama pada Kota Modern, yang tentu saja akan membuat nilai investasi properti di Kota Modern menjadi sangat tinggi," katanya. Source: Antara

Indonesia May Raise Cocoa Bean Export Tax in February

Indonesia may raise the export tax on cocoa beans in February due to the increasing price of the commodity, said Zulhefi Sikumbang, Chairman of the Indonesian Cocoa Association.

“We estimate export tax will be increased, but we don’t know how much,” Sikumbang said by phone from Makassar, capital of South Sulawesi province, today. 

The price of the chocolate ingredient increased about $100 per to $150 a ton last week and is estimated to be higher as world supply will be short after Ivory Coast banned exports for a month, Sikumbang said. 

“Indonesian exporters can’t control the price, so we go along with international price movements,” Sikumbang said. 

Indonesia kept the tax rate on cocoa bean exports for January at 10 percent, while raising the base price to $2,593 a ton, Deddy Saleh, director general for foreign trade, said Dec 23. The government sets a base price to determine the amount of tax to impose. 

The duty exporters pay on January shipments is $259 a ton, and may be increased for February and the following month to $300 a ton, as the average price for February shipments is at $3,200 a ton, according to Sikumbang. 

The cocoa association, known as Askindo, has asked the government to set a fixed duty on exports instead of changing it every month. The government announces the tax rate and base price between the 20th and 25th day of each month. 

The price of cocoa products has been increasing by about 8 percent a week due to the rising price of beans, said Piter Jasman, chairman of the Indonesian Cocoa Producers Association. 

“Production cost is still relatively stable and cheaper compared with cocoa-product manufacturers in Europe,” Jasman said by mobile-phone text message today. 

Cocoa butter has risen to $5,250 a ton from $4,800 a ton a week ago, and cocoa powder has increased to $4,500 a ton from $4,200 a ton a week ago, Jasman said. Source: Bloomberg

Palladium, Copper, Tin may be top metals in 2011

Palladium may fare better than other precious metals in 2011 due to continued strength in the automobile sector in emerging-market nations at a time of tight supplies, said “The Metals Monthly” report released by ABN AMRO Bank and VM Group Thursday.

Analysts described copper and tin as the base metals that may fare best.

However, while they that while sentiment for metals is bullish for now, there are potential headwinds that could derail expected rises in both base and precious metals. In particular, analysts cited any strength in the U.S. dollar due to economic recovery, potential interest-rate hikes, euro-zone debt distress and attempts to mitigate inflation in China.

VM Group looks for palladium to average $798 an ounce in 2011, compared to an average of $525 for 2010. The metal rose strongly last year due to growth in sales of new vehicles in China, India and other parts of the emerging world. The main industrial use for palladium is auto catalysts.

“There appears little reason for this growth to slow appreciably in 2011 and thus the prospects for the palladium price in 2011 are just as compelling,” the report said. “With auto-catalyst demand therefore likely to grow strongly in 2011, a small market deficit will develop as supply fails to keep pace. This will be compounded by dwindling sales from Russian state stockpiles.”

For other precious metals, the average 2011 forecasts are gold, $1,457 ($1,225 in 2010); silver, $29.63 ($20.13); and platinum, $1,783 ($1,609).

VM Group looks for the average gold price to rise but also anticipates a “bumpy ride” in which investment demand will be critical. Analysts look for the “near-zero interest-rate environment” to persist in the U.S. and Europe for much of the year, which should benefit gold as well as equities.

“The rise in the Chinese and Indian middle class will continue to support demand, while political uncertainty in the Middle East and North Korea and potential currency conflicts might lead to price spikes,” the report said. “There will–unsurprisingly–also be periods where euro-zone debt issues resurface, momentarily increasing gold’s allure as a hedge against sovereign risk.”

However, an offsetting factor would be a stronger dollar as signs of a U.S. economic recovery become more evident, VM Group said. The end to major dehedging by gold miners also takes away a source of buying, and government austerity measures in some nations could have the impact of suppressing jewelry demand.

Three-months copper is forecast by VM Group to average $9,150 a metric ton in 2011, compared to $7,537 last year. Tin is forecast to average $26,523 a metric ton in 2011, up from $20,401 for 2010.

“Copper looks likely to be the star performer of the base metals in 2011,” said the report, citing sentiment that “demand growth in China will be coupled with greater appetite in the U.S. and elsewhere.” Meanwhile, supply has not kept pace with demand, which should mean a market deficit of some 450,000 metric tons, VM Group said.

Analysts also describe themselves as bullish on tin, anticipating further supply disruptions but demand from the electronics sector to grow, with a potential deficit of 20,000 tons.

Other 2011 base metals forecasts include nickel, $23,625 (compared to $21,844 for 2010); zinc, $2,348 ($2,187); aluminum, $2,331 ($2,176); and lead, $2,329 ($2,190). Source: Commodityonline

Mitsubishi decides on $2.8 bln Indonesia LNG project

Mitsubishi Corp (8058.T) said on Monday it will invest in a liquefied gas development project worth $2.8 billion in Indonesia via a joint venture with companies including Korea Gas Corp (036460.KS). Source: Reuters

Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh AAA Sekuritas

Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh AAA Sekuritas. Menurut AAA Sekuritas, manajemen BBRI fokus pada upaya meningkatkan ROE dan bukan pada NIM. Berdasarkan perhitungan, kenaikan suku bunga pada 2011 hanya memberikan efek minimum terhadap peningkatan laba bersih yakni hanya sebesar 0,5% dibanding bank-bank lain sebesar 1,3%.


Berdasarkan analisa AAA Sekuritas, rencana penurunan bunga kredit mikro yang berujung pada pemangkasan NIM sejak kuartal I 2005 tidak membuat ROE BBRI turun. Bahkan, ROE bank ini tetap stabil di level rata-rata 33% (tertinggi kedua setelah BTPN).


Saat ini, BBRI diperdagangkan pada valuasi 2,8 kali PBV, sehingga target harga setelah stock split adalah Rp 6.500.
 
Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia Oleh AAA Sekuritas

Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas

Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas. Menurut Kim Eng, target penyaluran kredit BRI pada 2011 diproyeksikan tumbuh 20-22% atau melampaui tahun 2010. Kualitas kredit juga masih bagus dan tidak menjadi hal yang merisaukan bagi BBRI. Dalam sejarahnya, Kim Eng melihat rasio kredit bermasalah (non performing loan/NPL) akan tinggi pada kuartal III sebelum dilakukan hapus buku pada kuartal empat.

Kim Eng juga menyesuaikan perhitungan earning per share (EPS) BBRI untuk tahun ini turun sebesar 4,3% menjadi Rp 443,7. Namun meski turun, angka EPS ini masih mencerminkan kenaikan 13,4% dari EPS 2010 yang diproyeksikan sebesar Rp 391,2.

Menurut Kim Eng, saham BBRI sangat aktraktif. Dengan perolehan ROE 28,3% masih merupakan yang tertinggi di industri perbankan pada 2011. Rekomendasi beli dengan target harga Rp 6.200 pasca stock split.



Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas

Riset Kalbe Farma oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset Kalbe Farma oleh NISP Sekuritas. Pendapatan Kalbe Farma diproyeksikan tahun ini tumbuh 13,6% menjadi Rp 11,69 triliun dan laba bersih tumbuh 25,4% menjadi Rp 1,6 triliun. DDivisi farmasi dan nutrisi masih menjadi kontributor utama bagi pendapatan Kalbe Farma.

NISP Sekuritas memasang target harga Rp 3.350.


Riset Kalbe Farma Oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset IPO Garuda Indonesia oleh Valbury Sekuritas

Riset IPO Garuda Indonesia oleh Valbury Sekuritas.

Riset IPO Garuda Indonesia oleh Valbury Sekuritas

Riset Astra International oleh Valbury Sekuritas

Riset Astra International oleh Valbury Sekuritas. Target harga hingga akhir 2011 diproyeksikan sebesar Rp 63.000. Valbury melihat pada 2011 akan ada kenaikan harga-harga komoditas seperti batubara dan CPO yang akan menguntungkan ASII karena memiliki dua anak perusahaan, yakni Astra Agro Lestari (AALI di bisnis CPO) dan United Tractor (UNTR di bidang batubara). Selain itu, ekspansi strategis ASII di lini alat berat, kontraktor pertambangan, perkebunan, otomotif, akan menjadi katalis harga saham ASII pada 2011.

Namun, outlook bisnis 2011 juga akan dipengaruhi berbagai tantangan, seperti penerapan kenaikan tarif pajak kendaraan bermotor, rencana pembatasan penggunaan BBM bersubsidi, tekanan inflasi, dan proyeksi kenaikan suku bunga.

Riset Astra International oleh Valbury Sekuritas

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 24 Januari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Senin, 24 Januari 2011, dengan rekomendasi beli Bumi Resources (BUMI), Adaro Energy (ADRO), Indo Tambang Megaraya (ITMG), dan Bank Mandiri (BMRI).

BUY: (BUMI, ADRO, ITMG, BMRI)

• Menguatnya rupiah dari 9,100 ke 9,060 di saat IHSG terjun bebas hingga 140 pt (kemudian rebound menutup -74pt) menandakan bahwa capital outflow tidak terjadi dan potensi technical rebound bisa terjadi Senin ini.

• Rekomen melirik sektor batubara yang memiliki potensi EPS growth projection paling aggressive di 2010 (45%), dan emiten perbankan big cap selektif.

• IHSG close (24-01) 3,379.54 (-74.340/+2.16%) (Val.Rp.4.7T)

• Support: 3.320-3.280-3.200, Resistance: 3.450-3.550-3.610

 

Stock picks:

 

1.    Bumi Resources (BUMI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 3.200) (close 24/01 Rp 3.000)

• Beberapa sentimen positif dari restrukturisasi utang akibat aliansi dengan Vallar-Rothschild, sensitivas tinggi terhadap kenaikan harga batubara dan valuasi PER/PBV termurah di sektornya membuat harga BUMI tidak tertekan signifikan selama koreksi Jumat sehingga berhasil ditutup di atas level psikologis Rp 3.000.

• Rally dapat berlanjut rekomen akumulasi

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.950, Entry (2) Rp 2.825, cut-loss point: Rp 2.775

 

2.    Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.600) (Close 24/02 Rp 2.350)

• Kapasitas produksi terbesar kedua setelah BUMI untuk mengikuti tren kenaikan batubara (ASP- average selling price) & proyeksi EPS yang optimistis pada 2011 dapat offset sentiment negative dari penurunan produksi di Q4 2010 akibat cuaca buruk yang kelihatannya efek negatifnya sudah tercermin dalam koreksi harga.

• Entry (1) Rp 2.350, (2) Rp 2.250, Cut loss point: Rp 2.150

 

3.   Indo Tambang Raya (ITMG) (BUY): (Target: Rp 50.510) (Close 24/07 Rp 47.900)

• Spesialisasi khusus di high calorie coal yang biasanya dipakai untuk industry baja membuatnya immune terhadap peraturan pemerintah mengenai pembatasan export low calorie coal.

• Koreksi yang terjadi dapat digunakan sebagai kesempatan akumulasi karena bila dilihat dari sisi fundamental seharusnya emiten ini diperdagangkan di valuasi yang lebih tinggi (premium).

• Entry: (1) Rp 46.500, Entry: (2) 45.000, Cut loss point: Rp 43.000

 

4.   Bank Mandiri (BMRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 5.950) (close 24/01 Rp 5.600)

• Valuasi PER/PBV 2011F yang menarik (11.5x/2.4x), keadaan oversold pasca koreksi seminggu lebih dengan divergensi di stochastic buy signal membuatnya menjadi trading pilihan tepat untuk momentum player.

• Entry: (1) Rp 5.500, Exit (2) Rp 5.300, Cut-loss point: Rp 5.100

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Trisetijo Manunggal Beli 101 Juta Saham Pan Brothers

PT Trisetijo Manunggal Utama (TMU) membeli 101.527.580 saham Pan Brothers. Akibatnya, kepemilikan TMU bertambah dari 101.527.580 (22,793%) menjadi 203.055.160 saham Pan Brothers.

Penambahan saham Pan Brothers oleh TMU ini karena adanya transaksi pembelian exercise rights issue yang dilakukan sebanyak tiga kali. Pertama, 13 Januari 2011 sebanyak 22 juta di harga Rp 1.350 melalui PT Pacific Capital.

Kedua, 13 Januari 2011 melalui PT Sinarmas Sekuritas sebanyak 78.836.222 saham dan terakhir masih pada tanggal yang sama sebanyak 2.691.358 melalui PT Dwidana Sakti Sekurindo.

TMU sebelumnya tercatat pernah memiliki Bank Bintang Manunggal. Namun, pada tahun 2007, oleh TMU, bank itu dijual kepada Bank Hana dan kini berganti nama menjadi Bank Hana Indonesia. TMU menjual 60,97% sahamnya kepada Bank Hana Korea Selatan dan 19,03% kepada International Finance Corporation. Saat ini, TMU dan Bambang Setijo masih memiliki masing-masing 10% saham Bank Hana Indonesia.

Pemilik Lain Pan Brothers

Selain TMU, pemilik lain Pan Brothers yang mengeksekusi rights issue adalah PT Ganda Sawit Utama. Kepemilikan saham Pan Brothers oleh Ganda Sawit bertambah dari 86.281.500 (19,37%) menjadi 172.563.000 saham.

Satu pemegang individu, yakni Darwin beralamat di 130 Tanjung Rho Road #08-03 Singapura juga bertambah dari 49.892.000 (11,2%) menjadi 99.784.000 saham.

Borneo Lumbung Energi net profit last year at $177 mln

PT Borneo Lumbung Energi and Metal , Indonesia's only listed coking coal miner, reported 2010 full year net profit at $177 million with coal sales volume of 1.65 million tonnes, said Geroad Jusuf, the firm's corporate secretary, on Friday.

This was a turnaround from a 99.8 billion rupiah ($11 million) loss in 2009. ($1 = 9060.000 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

China’s Coal Imports at Record as Temperatures Plunge

China, the world’s biggest coal user, boosted imports of the fuel to a record last month, spurred by temperatures at a 35-year low and stockpiling, according to customs data. 

Imports in December rose 6 percent from a year earlier to 17.34 million metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said in an e-mailed report today. Purchases gained 31 percent to a record 165 million tons in 2010, according to the data. 

“Imports jumped as demand rose in the winter,” Liu Zhaoliang, a coal analyst at Qilu Securities Ltd., said by mobile phone from Shanghai. “Power companies are also ramping up imports to build stockpiles before the Chinese new year.” The Lunar New Year holiday in China starts on Feb. 2. 

Snowstorms hit central and southern China last month, increasing demand for coal used to fuel power stations. Flights were cancelled and residents advised to stay inside as heavy snow fell in Shanghai this week, with more snow predicted. 

The country paid $108 a ton for the fuel in December, and an average of $103 a ton for the year, according to the customs data. The agency didn’t break down the data by type of coal. 

Prices of power-station coal with an energy value of 6,000 kilocalories per kilogram may rise to an average 860 yuan a ton this year from 780 yuan in 2010 at China’s Qinhuangdao port, Ghee Peh, the Hong Kong-based head of Asian mining research at UBS Securities Asia Ltd., said on Jan. 18. 

Indonesia was the nation’s biggest supplier in December and accounted for 33 percent of imports last year, according to the customs data. China boosted purchases from the world’s biggest supplier of thermal coal by 81 percent in 2010 from a year earlier, according to the report. Imports from Australia, the second-biggest supplier, fell 16 percent for the full year.

Australian coking and thermal coal cost $147 a ton on a delivered basis in 2010, according to the customs data. Indonesian thermal coal cost $79 a ton on a delivered basis. 

China may increase coal purchases to 210 million tons this year, Helen Lau, a Hong Kong-based analyst at UOB Kay Hian Ltd., said on Jan. 11. Source: Bloomberg

Bumi’s 2010 Profit May Have Gained 50% as Coal Surges

PT Bumi Resources’s profit may have risen about 50 percent last year as the company, Indonesia’s biggest coal producer, sold more coal at higher prices, said Dileep Srivastava, a director. 

Bumi, based in Jakarta, posted $190.4 million in net income in 2009, Srivastava said in an e-mailed response to query, without providing last year’s figure. Profit may have risen 38 percent to $262.3 million last year, according to the average estimate of 18 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. 

Flooding in Australia, the world’s biggest coal exporter, drove Newcastle prices to the highest this month in more than two years. Power station coal price from Newcastle, an Asian benchmark, rose for a seventh week, climbing to $138.50 a ton on Jan. 14, the highest since September 2008, according to data from Petersfield, England-based IHS McCloskey. 

“Weather is something that no one can predict,” Ari Pitoyo, head of research at PT Mandiri Sekuritas, said by telephone from Jakarta. “The coal price has climbed much higher than our target of $105 a ton, that for 2011 even if there’s a downside in volume,” it won’t hurt Bumi’s earnings very much, he said. 

The unit of PT Bakrie & Brothers sold a “little over” 60 million metric tons last year at an average $70 a ton compared with 58 million tons at $63 a ton in 2009, Srivastava said.

“Assuming reasonable weather conditions, unlike the second half of 2010, Bumi thinks it should be able to increase sales by 10 percent and price by at least 10 percent as well,” Srivastava said. 

Investor Daily Indonesia reported earlier today that Bumi’s revenue may have increased 50 percent last year. 

Bumi shares fell 1.6 percent to close at 3,000 rupiah in Jakarta trading. The stock has jumped 73 percent in the past six months, outpacing the 12 percent gain in the benchmark Jakarta Composite index.  Source: Bloomberg

Tin Rises to Record on Concern Gap in Supply May Worsen; Copper Advances

Tin rose to a record in London on speculation that a shortfall of the metal used to make solders may worsen. 

Stockpiles of tin tracked by the London Metal Exchange shrank by 39 percent in 2010, declining for a fourth year in five. Production may fall for a fourth year in 2011 as bad weather disrupts mining, PT Timah, the world’s biggest supplier, said on Jan. 14. 

“Supply-and-demand fundamentals for tin are extremely positive for higher prices,” said Charles Cooper, an analyst at Oriel Securities Ltd. in London. “This will possibly trigger further investment in exchange-traded funds, and that would put further pressure on the market.” 

Tin for three-month delivery climbed as high as $27,720 a metric ton on the LME. It was up $425, or 1.6 percent, at $27,400 at 12:36 p.m. local time, leading gains among the six main metals traded on the exchange. Prices may exceed $30,000 in the next six months, Cooper said. 

“Tin has the best fundamentals among all the base metals,” said Nic Brown, an analyst at Natixis Commodity Markets Ltd. in London, citing a market “clearly in deficit” and “little prospect for higher supply or substitution.” 

The metal was last year’s best LME performer, jumping 59 percent after production was disrupted in Indonesia, China and Africa. As much as 30,000 tons of output was lost last year, according to Cooper. Prices may reach $40,000 a ton as global supply might lag behind demand until at least 2013, Malaysia Smelting Corp. said this week. 

Tin Inventories

ETF Securities Ltd. introduced the first exchange-traded product backed by tin in London last month. “This put a short- term pressure over availability of tin,” Cooper said. 

Tin stockpiles tracked by the LME rose 0.2 percent to 17,295 tons today, daily exchange figures showed. Orders to draw metal from inventories, or canceled warrants, jumped 58 percent to 475 tons. 

“LME tin stocks are still at a relatively low level,” enough for less than 20 days of use compared to an average of 24 days, while rising canceled warrants signal demand, Oriel’s Cooper said. “This suggests there is a shortage of stock metal.” 

All of the six main LME metals advanced today as German business confidence unexpectedly climbed to a record. The Munich-based Ifo institute’s business climate index gained to 110.3 from 109.8 in December. Economists predicted the gauge would hold steady, according to the median of 41 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

Copper, Aluminum

“A strong Ifo suggests a strong global economy,” said Jesper Dannesboe, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. “Historically there has been a close relationship between the leading Ifo survey and base metals.” 

Copper for three-month delivery on the LME rose 1.1 percent to $9,457 a ton. Stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell for the first time in four weeks, according to figures released today. 

Aluminum gained 0.2 percent to $2,414 a ton and nickel climbed 1.1 percent to $26,049 a ton. Zinc added 0.9 percent to $2,350 a ton and lead advanced 1.2 percent to $2,466 a ton. Source: Bloomberg