UPDATE 1-Indonesia's January tin exports gain 8 pct yr/yr

* World's top exporter cashes in on record tin prices

* London tin may hit $50,000/T in 2011 - analyst

Indonesia's refined tin exports rose 8.3 percent in January from the same month in 2010 as exporters rushed to take advantage of record high global tin prices, the trade ministry said on Thursday. 

Falling supply in the last year from Indonesia, the world's top exporter, has driven benchmark London tin prices to record prices, and they reached a new high on Tuesday.

Indonesia shipped 7,334.65 tonnes of refined tin in January, compared with 6,774.57 tonnes a year earlier, trade ministry data showed. 

"Exports were higher compare to January 2010 because exporters rushed to ship the metal because of record prices," said Junaedi, head of mining exports at the trade ministry. 

Benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange traded at $32,000 a tonne at 0829 GMT, well within reach of Tuesday's record high of $32,799 a tonne. 

Indonesia, which supplies nearly 30 percent of the world's tin, produced an estimated 105,000 tonnes in 2010. 

Last month, a senior mining official said Southeast Asia's largest economy will limit annual output to a maximum of 100,000 tonnes if record high prices set off a scramble for the metal. 

"It could be that they are maintaining production at a fairly steady state, and they said earlier they don't want to exceed the 100,000 tonne level," said Credit Agricole analyst Robin Bhar. "These exports could well be coming from metal held in inventory that wasn't exported last year. 

"It's quite a big jump ... Does this really change the dynamics of the markets? Probably not -- Indonesia is not seeing huge hikes in output, and neither is China." 

Earlier this week, Indonesia's state-owned PT Timah , the world's largest integrated tin miner, estimated its refined tin production this year at between 37,000 and 40,000 tonnes, up to eight percent down on last year. 

Tin consultants ITRI last month estimated 2010 global tin consumption at 360,300 tonnes, up 12.5 percent. 

Demand for the metal, used in electronics, plating and lead-free solders, is seen rising in the coming years, while analysts have for months forecast that Indonesian output will fail to keep pace due to a lack of investment in mining. 

In addition, a crackdown on illegal mining since 2006, tighter export regulations, as well as declining onshore reserves and rainy weather, have all hindered production in Indonesia.

"The thing with tin demand, unlike copper demand, you can't easily substitute," added Bhar. "Our forecasts is for around about $28,000-$29,000 (a tonne) average." 

"In terms of trading, we could trade higher towards $40,000-$45,000 -- who knows, we may even see $50,000." Source: Reuters