Brent crude surged above $100 this week, while copper and tin futures struck record highs as a cocktail of violent unrest in Egypt and strong Chinese demand for raw materials fuelled investor appetite .
Commodities were also bolstered by upbeat manufacturing data from Germany and the United States that sparked hope of a strengthening global economic recovery. Sugar futures soared as cyclone Yasi bore down on Australia.
OIL: Prices stood above the key $100 mark in London on Monday for the first time in more than two years and went on to surpass $103 a barrel as the market was hit by concerns over the impact of Egypt unrest on global energy supplies.
Brent oil blazed a trail to $103.37 on Thursday -- reaching the highest level since September 26, 2008. However, the market remains far below record highs of above $147 that were hit in July 2008 on supply disruption fears.
Crude futures spiked higher on the back of violent protests in Egypt that have raised serious concerns about the security of energy supplies travelling via the Suez canal to the West.
Egyptian protestors massed on Friday for sweeping "departure day" demonstrations, in an attempt to force President Hosni Mubarak to quit after he said he would like to step down but fears chaos would result.
Tens of thousands filled Cairo's central Tahrir Square, the epicentre of the 11 straight days of protests that have shaken the pillars of Mubarak's three-decade rule, on the Muslim day of rest.
"Oil markets are still on edge regarding possible worsening of turmoil centred on Egypt," said Brenda Sullivan, an analyst at Sucden brokers.
While Egypt is not a major crude producer, the country is home to the Suez Canal, which carries about 2.4 million barrels daily, roughly equal to Iraq's output.
"Thus far transit through Egypt has not been seen to have been affected, but the risk to transport as well as the risk of supply disruptions in other nations in the region are likely to continue as a major factor in the energy markets for some time," added Sullivan.
Traders are also concerned about the wider ramifications of the events in Egypt on the oil-rich but politically volatile Middle East.
Research house Capital Economics said oil prices were also being buoyed by strong global energy demand.
"The bulk of the rise in oil prices over the last few months reflects buoyant global demand rather than uncertainty in the Middle East," it said in a research note.
Analysts meanwhile expect the spread in the price between Brent crude and the benchmark New York contract to widen further because of oversupply in the US port of Cushing, Oklahoma.
By Friday afternoon on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in March leapt to $101.60 a barrel from $99.34 a week earlier.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Texas light sweet crude for March delivery jumped to $90.73 a barrel from $88.75.
BASE METALS
Copper prices topped $10,000 for the first time and went on to hit a record high $10,100 a tonne Friday on growing worldwide economic optimism and concerns about the impact of an Australian cyclone on stretched supplies.
"Copper prices continue to soar," said Ian O'Sullivan, an analyst at traders Spread Co. in London.
"Cyclone Yasi in Australia has added pressure to copper prices, with (mining company) Xstrata evacuating the largest copper mine in Australia ahead of the storm.
"But the key drivers have been the strong PMI manufacturing numbers out of the US, Europe, and especially China, the world's largest consumer of copper."
Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, a top-category storm, hit the Australian coast early Thursday, packing destructive winds.
Copper is also being propelled by tight global supplies of the industrial metal, which is used in plumbing, heating, electrical and telecommunications wiring.
Tin meanwhile struck an all-time peak of $31,300 a tonne, driven by supply concerns in key producer Indonesia.
By late Friday on the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper for delivery in three months surged to $10,060 a tonne from $9,628 a week earlier.
Three-month aluminium jumped to $2,540 a tonne from $2,470.
Three-month lead grew to $2,577 a tonne from $2,460.
Three-month tin gained to $31,050 a tonne from $29,650 a week earlier.
Three-month zinc increased to $2,504 a tonne from $2,340.
Three-month nickel advanced to $28,185 a tonne from $26,890.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold prices rebounded, helped by unrest in Egypt, with the metal viewed as a safe-haven investment.
The glamourous commodity had hit a record 1,431.25 dollars on December 7, also boosted by its safe-haven status as investors fretted over the eurozone debt crisis. Source: Reuters
By late Friday on the London Bullion Market, gold grew to $1,355 an ounce from $1,334.50 a week earlier.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Copper Climbs to Record on Concern Demand Will Outstrip Supplies
Copper extended a rally to a record on mounting concern that the global economic recovery will boost consumption of the metal used in cars, homes and appliances while mining companies struggle to increase output.
Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world’s largest publicly traded producer, said the market will be “tight in 2011, and for the foreseeable future.” The metal has more than tripled since the end of 2008 on rising demand from China, the world’s largest buyer. In the U.S., the second-biggest user, unemployment fell in January to the lowest level since April 2009, the Labor Department said today.
“Demand for copper continues to be robust and growing,” said James Dailey, who manages $185 million at TEAM Financial Asset Management LLC in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. “Bringing copper production online is very costly and protracted, so it may be some time before production levels are able to grow fast enough to offset the growth in demand.”
Copper futures for March delivery rose 3.5 cents, or 0.8 percent, to close at $4.5795 a pound at 1:26 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price reached a record $4.614. The metal is up 4.7 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain since Dec. 3.
The global supply deficit will reach 822,000 metric tons in 2011, more than double last year’s shortfall, Barclays Capital said on Jan. 20. JPMorgan Securities Ltd. and Macquarie Bank Ltd. also predicted a deficit, and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and Morgan Stanley have boosted their price forecasts.
China Demand
“We have continuing strong demand out of China and the prospects of continued recovery in the U.S. and in parts of Europe,” Kathleen Quirk, Freeport’s chief financial officer, said yesterday in a telephone interview from Phoenix. “That is also overlaid on a situation where supply is very limited. Our industry hasn’t been able to expand capacity fast enough to meet the demand.”
Copper for three-month delivery added $120, or 1.2 percent, to $10,050 a ton ($4.56 a pound) on the London Metal Exchange. Earlier, the metal climbed to $10,100, the highest ever.
Also in London, tin climbed 2.1 percent to $31,200 a ton after reaching a record $31,300. Prices are up 16 percent this year. PT Timah, the biggest supplier of the metal, said on Jan. 14 its production may drop for a fourth straight year in 2011.
Aluminum, lead, nickel and zinc rose. Source: Bloomberg
Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world’s largest publicly traded producer, said the market will be “tight in 2011, and for the foreseeable future.” The metal has more than tripled since the end of 2008 on rising demand from China, the world’s largest buyer. In the U.S., the second-biggest user, unemployment fell in January to the lowest level since April 2009, the Labor Department said today.
“Demand for copper continues to be robust and growing,” said James Dailey, who manages $185 million at TEAM Financial Asset Management LLC in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. “Bringing copper production online is very costly and protracted, so it may be some time before production levels are able to grow fast enough to offset the growth in demand.”
Copper futures for March delivery rose 3.5 cents, or 0.8 percent, to close at $4.5795 a pound at 1:26 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price reached a record $4.614. The metal is up 4.7 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain since Dec. 3.
The global supply deficit will reach 822,000 metric tons in 2011, more than double last year’s shortfall, Barclays Capital said on Jan. 20. JPMorgan Securities Ltd. and Macquarie Bank Ltd. also predicted a deficit, and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and Morgan Stanley have boosted their price forecasts.
China Demand
“We have continuing strong demand out of China and the prospects of continued recovery in the U.S. and in parts of Europe,” Kathleen Quirk, Freeport’s chief financial officer, said yesterday in a telephone interview from Phoenix. “That is also overlaid on a situation where supply is very limited. Our industry hasn’t been able to expand capacity fast enough to meet the demand.”
Copper for three-month delivery added $120, or 1.2 percent, to $10,050 a ton ($4.56 a pound) on the London Metal Exchange. Earlier, the metal climbed to $10,100, the highest ever.
Also in London, tin climbed 2.1 percent to $31,200 a ton after reaching a record $31,300. Prices are up 16 percent this year. PT Timah, the biggest supplier of the metal, said on Jan. 14 its production may drop for a fourth straight year in 2011.
Aluminum, lead, nickel and zinc rose. Source: Bloomberg
Sierad Produce Reverse Stock Sepuluh Kali
Jika disetujui, reverse stock akan dilakukan terhadap saham seri A dari semula nominalnya Rp 395 menjadi Rp 3.950/saham. Saham seri B semula Rp 395 menjadi Rp 3.950 dan saham seri C dari Rp 100 menjadi Rp 1.000/saham.
Berbeda dengan stock split yang akan membuat harga saham naik karena menguntungkan pemegang saham mengingat kepemilikan sahamnya akan bertambah, reverse stock justru menjadi momok bagi pemegang saham. Pasalnya, jumlah saham yang dimiliki akan berkurang dan biasanya saham hasil reverse stock bakal turun.
Kemarin, saham SIPD turun 9,68% atau Rp 6 menjadi Rp 56. Harga saham ini dalam setahun terakhir (52 minggu) bergerak di kisaran Rp 50-84.
Friday, February 4, 2011
Indonesia's cbank expects GDP growth at 6.4 pct in Q1
Indonesia's central bank said on Friday that it was confident GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011 would be 6.4 percent and it would continue to check inflation in coming months.
The central bank, which raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 bps to 6.75 percent on Friday, said it would also intervene to strengthen the rupiah in another effort to reduce inflationary pressures. Source: Reuters
The central bank, which raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 bps to 6.75 percent on Friday, said it would also intervene to strengthen the rupiah in another effort to reduce inflationary pressures. Source: Reuters
Indonesia Unexpectedly Raises Main Rate First Time Since 2008
Indonesia’s central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in more than two years after inflation climbed to a 21-month high.
The central bank increased its reference rate by a quarter percentage point, to 6.75 percent, Deputy Governor Halim Alamsyah told reporters today in Jakarta. The move, the first since October 2008, was predicted by only six of 22 economists. The rest forecast the measure to be kept unchanged at the lowest level since its introduction in July 2005.
The rupiah, Asia’s third-worst performing currency in the past year, erased losses after Indonesia joined Asian nations from India to Thailand and South Korea in increasing rates. Indonesia may have more room to boost rates even at the risk of attracting more currency inflows, with the rupiah having risen only 3.6 percent in the past 12 months, less than a third of the gain in the Malaysian and Singapore currencies.
“Bank Indonesia has correctly addressed that it is important to act now,” said Vishnu Varathan, a Singapore-based economist at Capital Economics (Asia) Pte. “Investors capitulating from the asset markets on fears Bank Indonesia is caught behind the curve will find assurance that it is acting to curb inflation.”
The rupiah was at 9,009 per dollar at 1:41 p.m. local time compared with 9,030 before the announcement. The Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.4 percent before it closed for lunch, when the decision was announced. It has slid 8 percent from its Dec. 9 record high as investors were concerned the central bank has fallen behind regional peers in boosting rates to slow inflation.
Regional Trend
The Reserve Bank of India on Jan. 25 raised rates for the seventh time in a year, boosting its repurchase rate by a quarter-point to 6.5 percent. Thailand’s central bank increased the one-day bond repurchase rate on Jan. 12 for the fourth time since the start of July, lifting it to 2.25 percent. The Bank of Korea raised its benchmark on Jan. 13 for the third time since the global financial crisis.
With Indonesia’s rate increase today, the Philippines is the only major Southeast Asian economies using interest rate as a policy tool that hasn’t raised its rate.
Consumer prices in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, rose 7.02 percent in January from a year earlier, the most since April 2009 and exceeding the 6.81 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Core inflation was 4.18 percent in January, easing from 4.28 percent the previous month.
Higher Reserves
Among the steps the central bank had taken so far to control inflation was to order lenders to set aside 5 percent of their total foreign-exchange holdings as reserves from March this year, from 1 percent currently. Bank Indonesia will also reintroduce a 30 percent cap on lenders’ short-term overseas borrowing to minimize the risk of sudden capital outflows.
Inflation erodes the spending power of the poor. The World Bank estimates 29 percent of Indonesians earn less than $2 a day.
Growth Target
The central bank refrained from raising rates as President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono targeted annual average economic growth of 6.6 percent through the remainder of his term ending in 2014. Companies from PT Bank Pan Indonesia to AirAsia Bhd. are counting on rising demand in the world’s fourth-most populous nation to boost their businesses.
Indonesia’s economy grew 6.3 percent last quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from a 5.8 percent rate in the three months through September, according to the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The government will release fourth-quarter economic data on Feb. 7.
Indonesian stocks’ decline is a buying opportunity as the rural-based economy will benefit from rising commodity prices, Wilianto Ie, an analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc., said last month. Concerns about inflation getting out of hand due to “policy slippage” are unfounded and the slump in Indonesia stocks is a “window of opportunity,” said Mun Hon Tham, an analyst at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Source: Bloomberg
The central bank increased its reference rate by a quarter percentage point, to 6.75 percent, Deputy Governor Halim Alamsyah told reporters today in Jakarta. The move, the first since October 2008, was predicted by only six of 22 economists. The rest forecast the measure to be kept unchanged at the lowest level since its introduction in July 2005.
The rupiah, Asia’s third-worst performing currency in the past year, erased losses after Indonesia joined Asian nations from India to Thailand and South Korea in increasing rates. Indonesia may have more room to boost rates even at the risk of attracting more currency inflows, with the rupiah having risen only 3.6 percent in the past 12 months, less than a third of the gain in the Malaysian and Singapore currencies.
“Bank Indonesia has correctly addressed that it is important to act now,” said Vishnu Varathan, a Singapore-based economist at Capital Economics (Asia) Pte. “Investors capitulating from the asset markets on fears Bank Indonesia is caught behind the curve will find assurance that it is acting to curb inflation.”
The rupiah was at 9,009 per dollar at 1:41 p.m. local time compared with 9,030 before the announcement. The Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.4 percent before it closed for lunch, when the decision was announced. It has slid 8 percent from its Dec. 9 record high as investors were concerned the central bank has fallen behind regional peers in boosting rates to slow inflation.
Regional Trend
The Reserve Bank of India on Jan. 25 raised rates for the seventh time in a year, boosting its repurchase rate by a quarter-point to 6.5 percent. Thailand’s central bank increased the one-day bond repurchase rate on Jan. 12 for the fourth time since the start of July, lifting it to 2.25 percent. The Bank of Korea raised its benchmark on Jan. 13 for the third time since the global financial crisis.
With Indonesia’s rate increase today, the Philippines is the only major Southeast Asian economies using interest rate as a policy tool that hasn’t raised its rate.
Consumer prices in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, rose 7.02 percent in January from a year earlier, the most since April 2009 and exceeding the 6.81 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Core inflation was 4.18 percent in January, easing from 4.28 percent the previous month.
Higher Reserves
Among the steps the central bank had taken so far to control inflation was to order lenders to set aside 5 percent of their total foreign-exchange holdings as reserves from March this year, from 1 percent currently. Bank Indonesia will also reintroduce a 30 percent cap on lenders’ short-term overseas borrowing to minimize the risk of sudden capital outflows.
Inflation erodes the spending power of the poor. The World Bank estimates 29 percent of Indonesians earn less than $2 a day.
Growth Target
The central bank refrained from raising rates as President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono targeted annual average economic growth of 6.6 percent through the remainder of his term ending in 2014. Companies from PT Bank Pan Indonesia to AirAsia Bhd. are counting on rising demand in the world’s fourth-most populous nation to boost their businesses.
Indonesia’s economy grew 6.3 percent last quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from a 5.8 percent rate in the three months through September, according to the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The government will release fourth-quarter economic data on Feb. 7.
Indonesian stocks’ decline is a buying opportunity as the rural-based economy will benefit from rising commodity prices, Wilianto Ie, an analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc., said last month. Concerns about inflation getting out of hand due to “policy slippage” are unfounded and the slump in Indonesia stocks is a “window of opportunity,” said Mun Hon Tham, an analyst at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Source: Bloomberg
Riset XL Axiata oleh OSK
Riset XL Axiata oleh OSK.Target harga 2011 dinaikkan dari semula Rp 6.300 menjadi Rp 6.500.
Riset XL Axiata Oleh OSK
Riset XL Axiata Oleh OSK
Rekomendasi HD Capital, 4 Februari 2011
Untuk perdagangan Jumat, 4 Februari 2011, HD Capital merekomendasikan opsi beli terhadap empat saham pilihannya, yakni Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI), Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG), Borneo Lumbung Energy & Metal (BORN), dan Astra International (ASII).
BUY: ASRI, ITMG, BORN,ASII
- Bila terjadi koreksi akibat profit taking pasca libur kemarin rekomen akumulasi karena BI rate tetap menjamin likuiditas terpompa ke market
- Penutupan kembali di atas garis down-trend-line baru di 3.475 akan mendorong breakout ke atas dari tren turun yang sedang berlangsung
- Minyak yang masih di atas $90/b menyarankan kita untuk memperhatikan sektor batubara
- IHSG close (02-02) 3.480.83 (+38.03/+1.11%) (Val.Rp.4.6T)
- Support: 3.475-3.390-3.300, Resistance: 3.530-3.650
Stock picks:
1. Alam Sutera (ASRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 270) (close 02/02 Rp 245)
- Rencana kenaikan harga semen tahun ini akan memaksa para developer menaikan harga jual rumah dimana demand tetap tinggi dengan catatan BI rate masih kondusif
- ASRI merupakan emiten dengan NPM tertinggi di sektornya (28%) akibat efisiensi operasional yang tepat dan dengan perhitungan NAVS (net asset value) di atas Rp 300.
- Entry: (1) Rp 240, Entry (2) Rp 230, Cut loss point: Rp 215
2. Indo Tambang Raya (ITMG) (BUY): (Target: Rp 49.000) (Close 02/02 Rp 47.400)
- Penutupan di atas level pskilogis Rp 47.000 positif untuk emiten yang bermain di sektor batubara dengan spesialis high calorie coal.
- Selain kontribusi dari akuisisi tambang pada 2010 yang akan terlihat dalam earnings Q1 2011, perseroan berencana membangun pembangkit listrik untuk power converyor belt yang dapat offset tingginya cost diesel fuel akibat kenaikan minyak mentah di atas $90/b.
- Entry (1) Rp 47.000, (2) Rp 46.200, Cut loss point: Rp 45.200
3. Borneo Lumbung (BORN) (BUY): (Target: Rp 1.750) (Close 02/02 Rp 1.640)
- Dalam skala permainan potensi kenaikan volume, pemain batubara kecil lebih diuntungkan daripada yang besar dalam menaikan target produksi hingga berlipat ganda untuk mengambil momentum kenaikan harga batubara New castle yang tahun ini diperkirakan tembus $160/ton.
- Entry: (1) Rp 1.620, Entry: (2) Rp 1.540, Cut loss point: Rp 1.420
4. Astra International (ASII): (BUY) (Target: Rp 50.000) (Close 02/02 Rp 48.350)
- Beberapa katalis menyelimuti saham ini seperti akuisisi AMFG, tambang batubara serta pemindahan produksi ke Thailand agar tidak mengandalkan demand dalam negeri saja dapat memicu bargain hunting pasca koreksi ke support Fibonacci 61.8% (terhitung dari Rp 46.000 ke 52.000) di Rp 47.700.
- Entry: (1) Rp 48.300, Entry (2) Rp 47.700, Cut loss point: Rp 46.700
Dibuat oleh:
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)
Thursday, February 3, 2011
FUND VIEW-High tin prices needed to address market imbalance
* Supply/demand imbalance resolved through prices
* 2011 to see a tin market deficit
A further rise in tin prices, after they have already hit records, is the only way to sort out the imbalance between demand and supply, U.S.-based fund manager Armored Wolf said.
Benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange hit a record at $30,920 a tonne on Thursday. That is a gain of about 15 percent so far this year for the metal used in electronics, after a surge of 58 percent last year.
A crackdown on illegal mining in top exporter Indonesia since 2006, tighter export regulations in the country and output disruptions have pushed tin prices higher in recent years.
"The story in tin appears to be one where a tight supply/demand balance will be resolved through the price mechanism, and more likely with demand destruction than supply additions, said Matt Millar, a director at Armored Wolf.
"The time-line for a ramp-up in tin mining ... is long enough that it is difficult to imagine a robust supply response in 2011 ... We will probably be stuck with a deficit again in 2011," he said this week.
A Reuters survey published late January showed analysts expecting a deficit of 15,000 tonnes in the tin market this year.
That is a small percentage of global consumption, estimated at around 365,000 tonnes this year, but analysts say it is enough to drive prices higher.
Millar said fundamentals justify current tin price levels. "Even assuming moderately higher Indonesian production, there is very little on the current horizon that will cut demand besides yet higher prices. If not, why have prices risen so high?"
Indonesia is the world's second-largest producer of tin after China. Its refined tin exports fell 9.2 percent in December 2010 from the same month in 2009, while full-year 2010 exports fell nearly 7 percent as an unusually long rainy season curbed mining.
A senior official told Reuters last week Indonesia would restrict annual output to a 100,000 tonnes.
Millar disagreed with the idea that investors were behind price gains.
"The idea that investors drive prices higher is generally hogwash," he said.
"Investors can take delivery in the case of metals and hoard them -- hold them off the market. But that does not appear to be a major force in the market." Source: Reuters
Rubber Surges to Record on Supply Concern, Nears 500 Yen/Kg
Rubber jumped by the most in three months, rising to a record as crude oil’s rally boosted the appeal of the commodity and rain in Asian growing regions curbed output, raising concern that supply tightness may worsen.
The July-delivery contract gained as much as 3.8 percent before settling at 489.9 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. In after-hours trading, the most-active contract surged to an all- time high of 499.9 yen a kilogram ($6,120 a metric ton). Transactions in this session will be settled tomorrow.
Oil climbed for a second day as protests in Egypt turned violent, prompting concern that supplies may be disrupted and unrest may spread to other parts of the Middle East. Persistent rainfall in Thailand’s key plantation areas has limited supply, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand.
“Tight supply of rubber and a strong auto market boosted the price to a new high,” Gu Jiong, an analyst at commodity broker Yutaka Shoji Co., said by phone from Tokyo. “Oil trading above $90 a barrel is also supportive.”
The most-active contract climbed 12 percent last month, extending last year’s 50 percent rally, as supplies from Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the top three growers representing 70 percent of global supply, were curbed by rain while rising car sales led by China and India improved demand.
La Nina, which started in June and usually lasts for nine months or more, has led to higher than average rainfall in most parts of Southeast Asia. The weather event’s strength may decrease during the next four months, the Malaysian Meteorological Department said in response to questions, supporting forecasts by the World Meteorological Organization.
‘Major Impact’
The weather event is having a “major impact” on rubber and palm oil production in Malaysia, as heavier rainfall may hamper harvesting and tapping, the Malaysian Meteorological Department said yesterday.
The physical price of natural rubber in Thailand, the world’s largest supplier, advanced to 180.55 baht ($5.84) a kilogram today from 178.55 baht yesterday, the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand said. The price reached a record 181.55 baht on Jan. 25.
Bridgestone Corp., the world’s largest tiremaker, said it will raise tire prices in North America by as much as 8 percent on April 1 because of the increasing cost of raw materials.
The Shanghai market will be closed until Feb. 8 for Lunar New Year holidays. May-delivery rubber in Shanghai climbed to a record 41,850 yuan ($6,350) a ton on Jan. 31.
Natural-rubber consumption in China may rise 9 percent to 3.6 million tons this year and India’s consumption may gain 5.2 percent to 991,000 tons, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
China’s natural-rubber inventories rose for the first week in four, adding 126 tons to 58,673 tons, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said on Feb. 1. That was a 61 percent decline from last year’s peak of 151,832 tons.
Car sales growth in China will be around 10 to 15 percent this year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Jan. 10. Total auto sales, which include cars, trucks and buses, jumped 32 percent last year to 18.06 million, the association said. Source: Bloomberg
IMF admits wrong doing in Indonesia
The International Monetary Fund ( IMF) admitted that it had done "a wrong doing" during cooperation with Indonesia over ten years ago and would learn from the lesson, Managing Director of the IMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Wednesday.
"We've drew a lesson from the way IMF and Indonesia worked together ten years ago. And certainly we did also something wrong and we have to accept that. So we've learnt this...," the director told a press conference after meeting with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the State Palace.
Indonesia, which was one of the IMF debtors, paid all its debt to the international financial institution in 2006 after the country exited from the 1998/99 Asian financial crisis.
The director said the IMF today appeared with a better performance, which has changed from the past.
"So we're a new institution, a multilateral institution which is built to help the membership and having learnt from the past, including the Asian crisis, we want to be able to provide our membership with the best possible advice and with support when needed," the director said.
He said that with the reforms it had done, the IMF reflected a better state of the world and Indonesia had a bigger role.
"The main message today is simple: we have to look forward. The IMF has changed, we have a new IMF where the voting power and the voice of Asian countries have increased a lot. The last reform we made in the governance changed the IMF to reflect better the state of the world. And in current state of the world, Asia in general, Indonesia in particular, has a bigger role than in the past," the director said.
Indonesia has built strong fundamentals and stability which made it survive from the global financial routs in 2008/2009, then the country's economy developed to a growth of expected 6 percent in 2010.
Indonesia has nearly jumped to investment grade, as Moody's Investor Rating agency recently raised Indonesia's grade to one notch below investment grade.
The IMF forecast Indonesia's economy would accelerate at 6 percent this year and saw no problem which may hamper the growth, the budget deficit of 1.8 percent was considered reasonable.
"I expect a rather high growth for Indonesia this year, it can be over 6 percent. I don't see any real problem (which may affect growth) on this time. The budget that has been prepared is a budget with a higher deficit than last year's but still a very reasonable one," he said.
Although Indonesia has no need to have a fresh loan from the IMF at present and in the near future, the director said the international organization still build cooperation in the region.
"Nevertheless, we'll never know. That's why we're working with regional institution like Chiang Mai initiatives to try to build something for the region," he said. Source: Xinhua
"We've drew a lesson from the way IMF and Indonesia worked together ten years ago. And certainly we did also something wrong and we have to accept that. So we've learnt this...," the director told a press conference after meeting with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the State Palace.
Indonesia, which was one of the IMF debtors, paid all its debt to the international financial institution in 2006 after the country exited from the 1998/99 Asian financial crisis.
The director said the IMF today appeared with a better performance, which has changed from the past.
"So we're a new institution, a multilateral institution which is built to help the membership and having learnt from the past, including the Asian crisis, we want to be able to provide our membership with the best possible advice and with support when needed," the director said.
He said that with the reforms it had done, the IMF reflected a better state of the world and Indonesia had a bigger role.
"The main message today is simple: we have to look forward. The IMF has changed, we have a new IMF where the voting power and the voice of Asian countries have increased a lot. The last reform we made in the governance changed the IMF to reflect better the state of the world. And in current state of the world, Asia in general, Indonesia in particular, has a bigger role than in the past," the director said.
Indonesia has built strong fundamentals and stability which made it survive from the global financial routs in 2008/2009, then the country's economy developed to a growth of expected 6 percent in 2010.
Indonesia has nearly jumped to investment grade, as Moody's Investor Rating agency recently raised Indonesia's grade to one notch below investment grade.
The IMF forecast Indonesia's economy would accelerate at 6 percent this year and saw no problem which may hamper the growth, the budget deficit of 1.8 percent was considered reasonable.
"I expect a rather high growth for Indonesia this year, it can be over 6 percent. I don't see any real problem (which may affect growth) on this time. The budget that has been prepared is a budget with a higher deficit than last year's but still a very reasonable one," he said.
Although Indonesia has no need to have a fresh loan from the IMF at present and in the near future, the director said the international organization still build cooperation in the region.
"Nevertheless, we'll never know. That's why we're working with regional institution like Chiang Mai initiatives to try to build something for the region," he said. Source: Xinhua
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Lion Air eyes $1 billion-plus in 2012 IPO
Lion Air, Indonesia's biggest airline by passenger volume, aims to raise more than $1 billion in an initial public offering (IPO) in 2012, its chief executive told Reuters on Wednesday.
The low-cost carrier has ambitious expansion plans, in a country where an increasing number of IPOs is seen in the next year, to take advantage of a buoyant capital market.
"We will ... use the IPO money as additional capital for our company as we have a huge expansion plan, but it doesn't mean we badly need money. We have all the financing we need through loans," said founder and CEO Rusdi Kirana.
Lion Air, which flies to a few Southeast Asian cities and across Indonesia, plans to expand by purchasing 178 planes worth $14 billion from Boeing Co by 2016.
It has a $1 billion loan to buy 22 planes this year, including 16 Boeing 737-900s, Kirana said. It expects to fly 20 million people this year, up from 17 million last year, he said.
"They have promising growth ... Looking at our population and because we're an archipelago, the most ideal transportation is air," said Alvin Pattisahusiwa, a fund manager in Jakarta at BNP Paribas Investment Partners, which manages about $3 billion.
If Lion Air could win removal from a European Union list of carriers banned from operating to the continent, imposed after a string of Indonesian air disasters, expansion would be boosted.
Analysts say Asian low-cost carriers have bigger expansion potential compared with established national carriers.
Philippine budget carrier Cebu Air raised $538 million in an IPO last October.
Indonesian flag carrier Garuda is set to raise $526 million in an IPO this month, half the $1.1 billion it targeted, after foreign investors were put off by pricing that valued it far higher than regional peers.
Harry Su, head of research at PT Bahana Securities in Jakarta, said the air penetration rate in Indonesia is only 15 percent in the world's fourth most populous nation.
Airline executives say the Indonesian market is a bright spot in an industry still struggling to recover from the global financial crisis, though Mandala Airlines recently suspended flights because of debt problems.
International air traffic slowed in November, according to industry body IATA, a sign the global recovery was slowing. Rising oil prices also pose a threat. Source: Reuters
Semen Gresik says 2010 profit up 10 percent
Indonesia's biggest cement maker by output PT Semen Gresik sees its 2010 net profit up 10 percent, as efficiency gains made up for flat revenue, Dwi Sutjipto, the firm's president director, told Reuters on Tuesday.
This would lag analysts' forecasts for 2010 net profit growth of about 14 percent to 3.8 trillion rupiah ($420 million), according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. ($1 = 9048 Rupiah). Source: Reuters
This would lag analysts' forecasts for 2010 net profit growth of about 14 percent to 3.8 trillion rupiah ($420 million), according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. ($1 = 9048 Rupiah). Source: Reuters
Indonesia Blocks 3.5 Million Tons of Coal Shipments
Indonesia’s government has blocked shipments of at least 3.5 million metric tons of coal since Jan. 15, after a delay in issuing new trading permits, an industry group said.
About 70 vessels, each with a capacity of 50,000 tons, are stuck at ports because surveyors checking shipments won’t allow the exports before traders obtain fresh licenses from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, said Bob Kamandanu, chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association.
“Some traders have declared force majeure because of the permit issue,” Kamandanu told reporters in Jakarta today, without identifying them. “More shipments will be halted as a lot more ships are entering the ports.”
Indonesia’s mining law of 2009 requires traders to convert old permits into new trading licenses issued by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry before they ship products overseas, said Djunaedi, head of mining exports at the Trade Ministry said Jan. 26. The ministry halted the process of giving out new licenses while waiting for the ministerial decree to be issued, Djunaedi, who uses one name, said at the time.
Alberth Yusuf Tobogu, export director of mining and industry products at the Trade Ministry, and Djunaedi didn’t answer two calls to their mobile phones seeking comment.
Force majeure is a legal clause that allows producers to miss deliveries because of circumstances beyond their control.
Indonesia, the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, has since 2008 required all exports of coal, metal ores and concentrate to be verified by government-appointed surveyors to prevent illegal shipments of commodities.
Coal prices at Newcastle, Australia, may climb 34 percent on average this year as floods cut supplies and Asian demand soars, Societe Generale SA said in a Jan. 20 report. The Asian benchmark dropped to $125.25 a ton for the week ended Jan. 28, compared with $138.50 a ton, a 28-month high, on Jan. 14, according to data from Petersfield, England-based IHS McCloskey. Source: Bloomberg
Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 2 Februari 2011
Berikut rekomendasi dua sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Selasa, 2 Februari 2011.
1. E-Trading Securities
Pada Selasa (1/2), IHSG ditutup naik 33 poin (0,98%) ke level 3.442. Indeks menguat di tengah inflasi Januari 2011 sebesar 0,89%, lebih tinggi dibanding bulan sama 2010 sebesar 0,84%. Asing mendominasi perdagangan kemarin dengan nilai transaksi Rp 4,3 triliun, dari total Rp 4,8 triliun. Pada perdagangan hari ini, indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak di kisaran 3.378-3.485. Cermati ADRO, BDMN dan SMGR.
2. Erdhika Sekuritas
Indeks kemarin rebound setelah terkoreksi selama dua hari berturut-turut. Sektor pertambangan menjadi penggerak penguatan indeks, menyusul menguatnya beberapa harga komoditas. Hari ini indeks akan berada pada kisaran 3.418-3.476 dengan ANTM, AALI, CPIN sebagai saham pilihan.
Rekomendasi HD Capital, 2 Februari 2011
Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 2 Februari 2011, yang merekomendasikan beli terhadap empat saham pilihannya, yakni Bumi Resources (BUMI), United Tractor (UNTR), United Tractor (UNTR), Timah (TINS), dan Astra International (ASII).
BUY: BUMI, UNTR, TINS,ASII
- Penutupan di atas 3.410 membuka peluang IHSG untuk mencoba mengetes down-trend-line di 3.488
- Core inflation yang lebih rendah membuat BI enggan menaikan rate
- Minyak di atas $90/b mendorong rally di saham komoditas
- IHSG close (01-02) 3.422.61 (+33.01/+0.98%) (Val.Rp.4.6T)
- Support: 3.392-3.330, Resistance: 3.530-3.650
Stock picks:
1. BUMI Resources (BUMI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 3.000-3.200) (close 01/02 Rp 2.875)
- Koreksi akibat sentimen negatif dari turunnya harga batubara ($135 ke $120/ton) mulai mereda dan kelihatannya rally dari Rp 2.725 akan berlanjut hingga di atas price gap yang terletak di Rp 3.000.
- Pelaku pasar mulai optimistis terhadap kinerja laporan keuangan full year 2010 yang belum dirilis.
- Entry: (1) Rp 2.850, Entry (2) Rp 2.750, Cut loss point: Rp 2.675
2. United Tractors (UNTR) (BUY): (Target: Rp 23.700) (Close 01/02 Rp 21.550)
- Valuasi no 2 paling murah (2010 PE 18x, 2011 PEF 12x) setelah BUMI (2010 PE 17x, 2011 PEF 11x) dan tanpa dibebani oleh masalah leverage (utang) tinggi membuat investor seharusnya mulai melirik emiten heavy equipment yang sekarang lebih bergelut ke bisnis batubara.
- Penguatan rupiah juga memberikan efek positif ke segmen penjualan heavy equipment yang cost impor dalam US$.
- Entry (1) Rp 21.500, (2) Rp 21.200, Cut loss point: Rp 20.800
3. Tambang Timah (TINS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.950) (Close 01/02 Rp 2.825)
- Penutupan di atas down-trend-line Rp 2.700 menandakan bahwa tren turun jangka pendek dari September 2010 (Sejak di atas level Rp 3.100) mulai ada tanda-tanda perbaikan untuk positive trend reversal sehingga rekomen akumulasi.
- Entry: (1) Rp 2.825, Entry: (2) Rp 2.700, Cut loss point: Rp 2.600
4. Astra International (ASII): (BUY) (Target: Rp 50.000) (Close 01/02 Rp 48.600)
- Bila masih terjadi koreksi rekomen akumulasi karena secara valuasi ASII masih menarik, PER 2010 di 15x, dan PER 11F di 13x, dengan riset fundamental 12-bulan target fundamental analis berkisar antara Rp 53.000 dan Rp 80.000 (HD)
- Entry: (1) Rp 48.000, Entry (2) Rp 47.000, Cut loss point: Rp 46.000
Yuganur Wijanarko
Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Tokosaham Capai 100 Ribu Pengunjung
Pembaca yang terhormat,
Ucapan syukur saya panjatkan kepada Allah yang maha kuasa atas karunia-Nya yang diberikan kepada kita semua, termasuk Anda pembaca setia blog tokosaham. Terima kasih pula saya haturkan kepada setiap pembaca setia blog ini.
Pada hari ini, Selasa 1 Februari 2011, tokosaham mendapat suatu penghargaan yang luar biasa dari pembaca, yakni dengan tercapainya 100 ribu pengunjung pada pukul 18:10 WIB. Itu berarti sejak dirintis pada 14 Juli 2010, tokosaham rata-rata dikunjungi sekitar 16.666 pengunjung tiap bulannya.
Dilihat per bulannya, rekor pengunjung tertinggi terjadi pada Oktober 2010. Ketika itu, jumlah artikel yang dibaca (page loads) mencapai 23.872. Pengunjung unik (gabungan pengunjung pertama kali dan yang loyalis) sebesar 15.872, sedangkan pengunjung loyalis (lebih dari satu kali) mencapai 10.113.
Tabel Pengunjung Tokosaham
Bulan Pageloads Unique Visitors Returning Visitors Jumlah Artikel
Juli 2.231 1.244 583 167
Agustus 12.198 7.324 3.805 380
September 15.291 9.650 6.007 256
Oktober 23.872 15.872 10.113 260
November 22.566 16.346 10.077 190
Desember 18.333 14.027 8.718 143
Januari 2011 19.702 14.983 9.015 203
Rasio Artikel Terhadap Pembaca
Hingga saat ini, tokosaham telah mempublikasikan 1.614 artikel. Sebanyak 1.400 artikel terbit selama 14 Juli-31 Desember 2010. Sedangkan tahun ini hingga 1 Februari 2011 telah dipublikasikan 214 artikel.
Tampaknya, korelasi jumlah artikel tidak terlalu erat hubungannya dengan penambahan pengunjung. Hal itu terlihat dari jumlah pengunjung pada Agustus 2010 yang hanya 7.324 pengunjung unik, padahal bulan itu jumlah artikelnya mencapai 380 buah atau terbanyak sepanjang 2010. Faktor dominannya lebih pada pergerakan indeks bursa saham Indonesia sendiri. Jika IHSG dalam tren bullish (naik), pengunjung banyak mencari informasi soal emiten-emiten yang ingin atau telah dibelinya.
Secara umum, dengan pengunjung mencapai 100 ribu dan jumlah artikel hingga kini 1.614, maka rasio perbandingannya adalah 1:62. Artinya setiap satu artikel dibaca oleh oleh 62 orang.
Penutup
Terakhir, sebagai penutup, saya atas nama pengelola blog ini mengucapkan terima kasih atas dukungan Anda semua, pembaca setia. Jika kiranya ada kesalahan atau kekurangan di sana-sini, saya mohon maaf yang sebesar-besarnya.
Selain itu, saya dengan rendah diri memohon pada pembaca untuk memberi masukan, kritik, dan saran. Apapun uneg-uneg yang ingin pembaca kirimkan, saya dengan senang hati menerima dan akan membalasnya. Silahkan kirimkan ke alamat email saya. Terima kasih sekali lagi dan semoga di tahun baru ini (tahun kelinci tinggal dua hari lagi), kita semua mendapatkan kesuksesan di keluarga, lingkungan masyarakat, kantor, dan juga kesuksesan dalam investasi.
Salam hormat,
Efendi
Pada hari ini, Selasa 1 Februari 2011, tokosaham mendapat suatu penghargaan yang luar biasa dari pembaca, yakni dengan tercapainya 100 ribu pengunjung pada pukul 18:10 WIB. Itu berarti sejak dirintis pada 14 Juli 2010, tokosaham rata-rata dikunjungi sekitar 16.666 pengunjung tiap bulannya.
Dilihat per bulannya, rekor pengunjung tertinggi terjadi pada Oktober 2010. Ketika itu, jumlah artikel yang dibaca (page loads) mencapai 23.872. Pengunjung unik (gabungan pengunjung pertama kali dan yang loyalis) sebesar 15.872, sedangkan pengunjung loyalis (lebih dari satu kali) mencapai 10.113.
Tabel Pengunjung Tokosaham
Bulan Pageloads Unique Visitors Returning Visitors Jumlah Artikel
Juli 2.231 1.244 583 167
Agustus 12.198 7.324 3.805 380
September 15.291 9.650 6.007 256
Oktober 23.872 15.872 10.113 260
November 22.566 16.346 10.077 190
Desember 18.333 14.027 8.718 143
Januari 2011 19.702 14.983 9.015 203
Hingga saat ini, tokosaham telah mempublikasikan 1.614 artikel. Sebanyak 1.400 artikel terbit selama 14 Juli-31 Desember 2010. Sedangkan tahun ini hingga 1 Februari 2011 telah dipublikasikan 214 artikel.
Tampaknya, korelasi jumlah artikel tidak terlalu erat hubungannya dengan penambahan pengunjung. Hal itu terlihat dari jumlah pengunjung pada Agustus 2010 yang hanya 7.324 pengunjung unik, padahal bulan itu jumlah artikelnya mencapai 380 buah atau terbanyak sepanjang 2010. Faktor dominannya lebih pada pergerakan indeks bursa saham Indonesia sendiri. Jika IHSG dalam tren bullish (naik), pengunjung banyak mencari informasi soal emiten-emiten yang ingin atau telah dibelinya.
Secara umum, dengan pengunjung mencapai 100 ribu dan jumlah artikel hingga kini 1.614, maka rasio perbandingannya adalah 1:62. Artinya setiap satu artikel dibaca oleh oleh 62 orang.
Penutup
Terakhir, sebagai penutup, saya atas nama pengelola blog ini mengucapkan terima kasih atas dukungan Anda semua, pembaca setia. Jika kiranya ada kesalahan atau kekurangan di sana-sini, saya mohon maaf yang sebesar-besarnya.
Selain itu, saya dengan rendah diri memohon pada pembaca untuk memberi masukan, kritik, dan saran. Apapun uneg-uneg yang ingin pembaca kirimkan, saya dengan senang hati menerima dan akan membalasnya. Silahkan kirimkan ke alamat email saya. Terima kasih sekali lagi dan semoga di tahun baru ini (tahun kelinci tinggal dua hari lagi), kita semua mendapatkan kesuksesan di keluarga, lingkungan masyarakat, kantor, dan juga kesuksesan dalam investasi.
Salam hormat,
Efendi
Indonesia's Jan CPI up 7.02 pct y/y, above forecast
* Jan CPI up 0.89 pct m/m, above forecast of 0.65 pct
* Jan CPI up 7.02 pct y/y, above forecast of 6.81 pct
* Jan core CPI up 4.18 pct y/y, below forecast of 4.25 pct
JAKARTA, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Indonesia's January consumer price index from the country's statistics bureau.
KEY DATA: CPI (y/y pct change) (m/m pct change) Jan 7.02 Jan 0.89 Dec 6.96 Dec 0.92 Nov 6.33 Nov 0.60 Oct 5.67 Oct 0.06 Sept 5.80 Sept 0.44 Aug 6.44 Aug 0.76 July 6.22 July 1.57 June 5.05 June 0.97 May 4.16 May 0.29 April 3.91 April 0.15 March 3.43 March -0.14 Feb 3.81 Feb 0.30 Jan 3.72 Jan 0.84 Dec 2.78 Dec 0.33 Nov 2.41 Nov -0.03 Oct 2.57 Oct 0.19 Sept 2.83 Sept 1.05 Aug 2.75 Aug 0.56 July 2.71 July 0.45 June 3.65 June 0.11 May 6.04 May 0.04 April 7.31 April -0.31 March 7.92 March 0.22 Feb 8.60 Feb 0.21
CONTEXT:
- Analysts expected Indonesia's annual inflation in January to ease after it reached a 20-month high in December, as food prices declined slightly.
- The government's plan to scrap import duties on rice, wheat and soybeans may also reduce inflationary pressures in coming months.
- January's annual inflation was estimated to reach 6.81 percent, less than 6.96 percent in December. Core inflation -- which excludes administered prices and volatile foods -- was seen stable at 4.25 percent year-on-year.
- Food inflation has become a major concern for policymakers worldwide, with Thailand's central bank seeing the need for further rate normalisation and the Philippines' central bank watching the surge in global commodity prices.
- Bank Indonesia deputy governor Hartadi A. Sarwono said last week it was open to a policy rate hike, though it would be the last option, after telling Reuters in December that BI wouldn't hesitate to tighten if core inflation neared 5 percent.
- The central bank has been intervening in the foreign exchange market to stem inflation, targeting 9,000 per dollar as a benchmark to achieve its 4-6 percent inflation target this year, he said.
- Worries the central bank is behind the curve in tackling inflation led foreign investors to sell Indonesian assets early this year.
- Analysts expected Bank Indonesia to keep its benchmark rate at a record low 6.5 percent when meeting on Feb. 4, but saw the central bank first hiking rates early in the second quarter by 25 basis points.
- The central bank is trying to hold its benchmark rate, used as a reference by banks to adjust lending rates, to support an economy seen growing by 6.4 percent in 2011 and to avoid attracting greater "hot money" capital flows. Source: Reuters
Copper’s Record Run Nears $10,000; Tin Advances to All-Time High
Copper surged to a record, with the price on the threshold of breaching $10,000 a metric ton, as shrinking inventories added to signs the global economic recovery is gathering pace. Tin also gained to an all-time high.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange gained as much as 1.2 percent to $9,860 a metric ton, surpassing the previous peak of $9,782 reached yesterday, and traded at $9,853 at 3:20 p.m. in Singapore. The metal capped a seventh monthly gain in January, the best run since the eight months ended August 2009.
“Copper at $10,000 is only a matter of time,” said Liang Haisan, a Shanghai-based analyst at Citic Newedge Futures Co., a joint venture between Citic Group and Newedge Group. “The stage for higher prices was set a while ago and, barring any major economic shocks, prices will only go up from here.”
Copper inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange decreased yesterday by the most in 11 months, with the decline coming from warehouses in the U.S., the world’s second-biggest user after China. Stockpiles tallied by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell for a second week last week, after reaching a seven-month high on Jan. 13, according to Bloomberg data.
“Stockpile data seems to point to improving demand,” Zhang Wenhai, an analyst at Yingda Futures Co., said from Beijing. “Investors are very optimistic China will ramp up consumption after the Spring Festival.” China’s financial markets will be closed from tomorrow through Feb. 8 for the Lunar New Year.
May-delivery metal on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose as much as 2.4 percent to 75,620 yuan ($11,481) a ton, the highest since April 2007, and ended the day at 75,580 yuan. Futures on the Comex in New York gained 0.7 percent to $4.4915 a pound.
Copper Shortage
Copper, often seen as an economic indicator because it’s used in construction and electrical applications, surged 30 percent in 2010 as the global economy rebounded from the worst recession since World War II. Mining companies have failed to keep pace with demand because new reserves are harder to find and the quality of ore is declining, meaning less metal is extracted from each ton of earth.
“Many investors see tightening in China as one of the biggest risks to the market,” said Zhang. “However, demand just needs to be stable and there won’t be enough metal to go round.” China’s manufacturing growth slowed for a second month in January, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today, easing concerns the government may further tighten monetary policy.
The world may be short of 822,000 tons of copper in 2011, more than double last year’s deficit, according to Barclays Capital. The International Copper Study Group, JPMorgan Securities Ltd. and Macquarie Bank Ltd. have also predicted a shortfall.
Tin Record
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted in October that copper would trade at $11,000 a ton in a year, while Standard Chartered Plc forecast in August that the metal may rise to $12,000 in the next two years.
Tin in London also climbed to its highest ever, gaining as much as 1 percent to $30,400 a ton, as supply of the metal used in soldering and packaging is expected to lag behind demand this year through 2013. Tin was the best-performing metal on the LME last year on dwindling supplies from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter, and reduced output in China and Africa.
Tin rose for a ninth day, the longest period of advance since September. Inventories monitored by the exchange shrank 39 percent last year, the largest decrease since 2004. They dropped for a second day yesterday.
Declining Dollar
“The low interest-rate environment in the U.S. will weigh on the dollar, which is generally supportive of metals prices,” said Xu Feng, an analyst at Nanzheng Futures Co. Federal Reserve policy makers last week retained a pledge in place since March 2009 to keep its benchmark interest rate “exceptionally low” for an “extended period.”
The dollar fell for a second day against a basket of six currencies including the euro, on speculation the global economic recovery is gathering pace. Dollar-denominated commodities tend to move inversely to the U.S. currency.
Nickel rose as much as 1.7 percent to $27,800 a ton, lead increased 1.2 percent to $2,539.75 a ton, aluminum gained 0.9 percent to $2,541.75 a ton and zinc climbed 0.7 percent to $2,444 a ton. Source: Bloomberg
Some Indonesia coal traders declare force majeure on rule change-assoc
Some Indonesian coal traders have declared force majeure after a trade rule change, with around 60-70 vessels stuck in various ports and 3.5 million tonnes unable to be shipped, the chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association said on Tuesday.
It was not immediately clear which trading companies and which buyers were affected, Bob Kamandanu told reporters, after a new trade regulation caused the delays in the world's top thermal coal exporter. Reuters
It was not immediately clear which trading companies and which buyers were affected, Bob Kamandanu told reporters, after a new trade regulation caused the delays in the world's top thermal coal exporter. Reuters
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