Bumi aims to raise $362 mln in share sale

Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's biggest coal miner, said on Friday it aims to raise 3.24 trillion rupiah ($362 million) in a share placement in September.

The firm will sell 1.37 billion new shares in a placement closing on September 30 at a price of 2,366 rupiah per share. The amount targeted was lower that the company's previous expectation to raise $495 million by selling up to 10 percent stake.

Dileep Srivastava, a Bumi director, told Reuters that it was the first part of the company's plan to deleverage its debt by up to $800 million by the fourth quarter this year. Source: Reuters

Barclays Capital sees record high copper, tin 2011

Copper and tin prices could hit record high annual average prices in 2011 on a strong consumption outlook and supply tightness, Barclays Capital said in a note on Thursday.

"Copper and tin have the greatest price upside, given that both these metals face severe mine supply constraints," the bank said.

For copper in particular, robust demand from China will help drive global inventories to all-time lows early next year, Barclays said, a key driver behind price gains.

Barclays expected copper prices to average $8,000 a tonne in the fourth quarter of this year. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange traded at $7,855 a tonne at 1412 GMT on Thursday. It reached a record high of $8,940 in July, 2008.

Copper stocks held in LME-registered warehouses hit historic lows below 30,000 tonnes in July 2005, just a fraction of the global market forecast at 19 million tonnes this year. 

Since February, these stocks have dropped by one third to 380,125 tonnes from February's six-year highs of 555,075 tonnes.

China is the world's top consumer of base metals, accounting for roughly one third of global demand for the metal used in power and construction last year.

Barclays expected tin to average at $22,250 in the fourth quarter of the year, rising to just shy of $27,000 by the end of the second quarter, 2011, due to protracted supply constraints out of top tin exporter Indonesia. 

Indonesia's refined tin exports in August fell 5.6 percent from the same month a year ago as heavy rains hampered mining, continuing a trend of declining output this year. 

The rains could cut refined tin output by 20 percent this year to around 80-85,000 tonnes, in line with analyst forecasts, Indonesia said. 

On the LME, tin stood at $23,475 a tonne at 1351 GMT, down from two-year highs of $23,800 hit last week. Source: Reuters

Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010

The latest Indonesia Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account
for 4.94% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 10.86% of
supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn b/d in 2001 is set to reach a forecast
27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil
production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated
8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014.
Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace
of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average 13.07mn b/d.
This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach
21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and
South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia. 

In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bcm and
demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010
should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm
to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters.
Indonesias share of gas consumption in 2010 is expected to be 7.68%, while its
share of production is put at 18.31%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is
forecast to be 7.23%, with the country accounting for 15.71% of supply. 

Source: Reuters

Gas Negara May Spend $250 Million to Build Indonesian LNG Import Terminal

PT Perusahaan Gas Negara, Indonesia’s biggest distributor of the fuel, may allocate $250 million to build a liquefied natural gas receiving terminal in Belawan, North Sumatra province, next year, an executive said. 

Gas Negara, based in Jakarta, will use internal cash and bank loans to finance the project, Finance Director Riza Pahlevi Tabrani said today in Jakarta. He didn’t provide details.

Indonesia, the world’s largest LNG exporter after Qatar and Malaysia, is increasing investment in infrastructure to meet rising domestic and overseas demand for the cleaner-burning fuel. 

The Belawan terminal will receive LNG shipments from Tangguh field in Indonesia’s Papua, Investor Daily Indonesia reported Sept. 7, citing President Director Hendi Prio Santoso.

LNG is natural gas that has been cooled to liquid for shipping to markets beyond the reach of pipelines.Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia's Telkom eyes acquisitions in SE Asia

* Looking for acquisitions in Asia as sees home mkt maturing

* Capital expenditure in 2011 seen steady at $2 bln

JAKARTA, Sept 23 (Reuters) - PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM), Indonesia's biggest phone firm, said on Thursday it is looking at acquisitions in Southeast Asia as it sees its domestic market maturing.

Indonesia, Southeast Asia's biggest economy, has become one of the world's most crowded telecommunications markets, with 11 operators fighting for custom in a population of 237 million.

"Telkom is looking for acquisition opportunities in Southeast Asia, including mobile phone providers as our market is starting to mature," said CEO Rinaldi Firmansyah.

"We need a new market but we will not go to Africa.. It's too far...But in Asia we're open for any acquisition possibilities," he said on the sidelines of a conference.

Telkom, which rarely comments on regional expansion, tried last year to acquire a stake in Iran Telecom but failed as it lacked backing from Indonesia's government.

Firmansyah did not say how big the firm's warchest would be, but said earlier on Thursday that it sees capital expenditure in 2011 at about $2 billion. "We see the same capex for next year at about $2 billion to finance our infrastructure projects as well as maintenance," said Firmansyah.

Telkom needs to invest heavily in telecoms infrastructure such as towers, and is also shifting its focus to data services to earn higher profits as Indonesian subscriber growth slows. Source: Reuters

A New Indonesian Consumer Era by Trimegah Securitas

A New Indonesian Consumer Era

Empat Tips Memilih Saham yang Bagus

Analis Senior HD Capital Yuganur Wijanarko memberikan empat tips bagi Anda dalam memilih saham yang patut dikoleksi/dimiliki dalam portofolio investasi, jika berinvestasi di bursa saham.

1. Return on Equity (ROE):  Harus di atas bunga kredit bank

Sebaiknya memilih saham yang memiliki tingkat pengembalian ekuitas (ROE) di atas biaya untuk meminjam dari bank untuk melakukan usaha. Contohnya bila bunga kredit dari bank 11%, maka ROE saham yang dipilih harusnya di atas itu.Fund Manager mengambil langkah yang lebih kompleks, yaitu mencari ROE saham yang lebih tinggi dari ROE emiten IHSG. 

2. Debt to Equity Ratio (ROE): di bawah 2 kali

Meniru cara investasi saham ala Syariah Islam yang tidak memiliki emiten dengan utang tinggi (rasio utang terhada ekuitas di atas 2x) juga bisa mengurangi risiko investasi (jaga-jaga kalo emitennya bangkrut).

Namun seiring dengan keadaan dunia saham yang berubah, bila emiten terlihat akan melakukan aksi korporasi yang jelas untuk mengurangi utang, bisa dilakukan pengecualian. 

3. Positive Earnings (Cari perusahaan untung) 

Sebaiknya memilih emiten dengan pertumbuhan laba positif dan menjauhi perusahaan yang rugi (earnings negatif) 

4. Kapitalisasi besar  & likuid (sering diperdagangkan) 

Hal ini untuk berjaga-jaga agar kita terhindar dari risiko saham tidur (tidak pernah aktif) atau dipermainkan "bandar" karena jika volume saham beredarnya sedikit, gampang sekali harganya dinaikkan atau diturunkan dalam hitungan menit. Source: HD Capital

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 24 September 2010

Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama tentang kondisi bursa yang akan terjadi hari ini, Jumat 24 September 2010, termasuk saham-saham pilihan yang patut dicermatin.

1. Trimegah Securities

Masih berlanjutnya tekanan jual menyebabkan IHSG kembali terkoreksi pada Kamis (23/9), dengan diikuti oleh volume perdagangan yang melemah. Adanya support di level 23,6% fibonacci retracement diharapkan dapat menahan laju kejatuhan IHSG. Pergerakan indeks masih cenderung melemah di kisaran 3.300-3.355 hari ini. Saham pilihan BISI dan SGRO.

2. Erdikha Sekuritas

IHSG ditutup melemah 6,15 poin (0,18%)menjadi 3.337,20 kemarin, salah satunya dipicu penurunan sebagian besar saham infrastruktur dan industri dasar. Pelemahan bursa global dan liburnya sebagian bursa Asia turut memengaruhi indeks bergerak mixed.  IHSG cenderung masih mixed pada kisaran 3.300-3.380. Kami merekomendasi saham BISI dan BMRI.

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Potensi reversal IHSG masih sangat lemah dan lebih mengarah pada pola konsolidasi. Indeks diperkirakan rentan kembali terkoreksi pada kisaran level 3.294-3.356 Jumat ini. Cermati saham BBNI, UNTR, dan BBRI.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 24 September 2010

Untuk perdagangan akhir pekan ini, Jumat 24 September 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihan untuk dicermatin dengan opsi Buy. Keempat saham itu adalah Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF), Astra International (ASII), Adaro Energy (ADRO), dan Bank Mandiri (BMRI).

• Bila terjadi koreksi di IHSG rekomen akumulasi untuk antisipasi technical rebound.

• IHSG close (23-09) 3.334.903(-10.384/-0.41%) (Val.Rp.3.7T)

• Support: 3.300-3250-3214, Resistance: 3.390-3.420-3.460

 

Stock picks:

 

1.    Indofood (INDF): (BUY) (Target: Rp 5.600) (close 23/09 Rp 5.450)

• Data inflasi yang diperkirakan lebih rendah &  penguatan positif untuk sektor consumer terutama di INDF mempunyai cost & utang dalam US$.
   
• Bila terjadi pullback ke price gap Rp 5.000-4.950 rekomen akumulasi.

• Entry: (1) Rp 5.000, Entry (2) Rp 4.900, Cut-loss point: Rp 4.750

 

2.    Adaro  Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.150) (Close 23/09 Rp 1.990 )

• Downgrade EPS FY 2010-2011  15% akibat potensi tergerusnya laba dari turunnya produksi akibat curah hujan tinggi sudah tercermin dalam koreksi harga yang sudah berada dalam kisaran oversold.

• Entry (1) Rp 1.960, (2) Rp 1.920, cut-loss point: Rp 1.850

 

3.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 58.500) (Close 23/09 Rp 54.950)

• Valuasi & proyeksi laba per saham (EPS) masih masuk akal karena tren kenaikan penjualan mobil yang didukung oleh BI rate & pertumbuhan GDP kondusif masih akan terus berlangsung hingga memuncak di 2011F, sehingga pasar masih optimistis akan kinerja laba ke depan.

• Entry: (1) Rp 54.500, Entry: (2) 52.500, Cut loss point: Rp 50.000
   

4.   Bank Mandiri  (BMRI) (BUY) (Target: Rp 6.900) (close 23/09 Rp 6.300)

• Rights issue sudah tercermin dalam harga, perseroan optimistis bahwa pasca-rights issue, dana  untuk ekspansi kredit akan tersedia sehinga kinerja 2011F dapat membaik.

• Entry: (1) Rp.6.250, Entry (2) Rp.6.100, Cut-loss point: Rp.5.950

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

DPR Setujui Rights Issue BNI Rp 10 Triliun

Komisi XI Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR) menyetujui rencana penawaran saham terbatas (rights issue) PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk. Surat persetujuan DPR diharapkan terbit Oktober 2010, sehingga pelaksanaan rights issue bisa dilakukan tahun ini.

"Kami telah memberikan persetujuan kepada BNI untuk melakukan rights issue," kata Wakil Ketua Komisi XI DPR Achsanul Qosasi di gedung DPR, Jakarta, Kamis (23/9).

Menurut dia, dalam aksi korporasi itu, BNI akan mengeluarkan sekitar 3,3 miliar saham baru dengan target dana Rp 9-10 triliun. Dengan tambahan dana tersebut, rasio kecukupan modal (capital adequacy ratio/CAR) BNI akan meningkat menjadi 16% dari posisi saat ini 13%.

Pada 2011, BNI menargetkan pengucuran kredit bisa bertambah menjadi Rp 24 triliun. "Kalau sekarang BNI tidak bisa melakukan ekspansi sesuai target bisnis karena CAR mepet," ujarnya.

DPR memberikan catatan jika rights issue dilakukan, BNI dapat menfokuskan kepada penyaluran kredit infrastruktur.

Selain itu, terkait pemberian opsi kepada manajemen untuk membeli saham pada harga tertentu melalui mekanisme management stock option program (MSOP), DPR mensyaratkan bahwa saham itu tidak boleh dijual atau ditahan untuk jangka waktu tertentu. 

Lihat juga berita:

Riset Bank Negara Indonesia oleh Samuel Sekuritas

Isinya mengulas soal dugaan harga rights issue BNI dan potensi dilusi.

3 Broker Asing Mulai Koleksi PGAS

Tiga broker asing mulai kembali mengoleksi saham PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS). Namun, harga saham PGAS masih melemah Rp 25 menjadi Rp 3.850 dengan titik terendah RP 3.825. Hal ini karena masih ada broker asing yang melepas saham PGAS.

Dua broker yang melepas saham PGAS adalah Macquarie Securities Indonesia sebanyak 31.147 lot (Rp 3.871) dan JP Morgan Securities Indonesia 5.648 lot (Rp 5.648). Sedangkan aksi beli mulai dilakukan oleh Deutsche Securities meski dengan swing trading. Broker ini membeli 15.722 lot di harga Rp 3.868.

Sedangkan DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia dan Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia membeli 7.680 lot (Rp 3.868) dan 3.306 (Rp 3.863).

1	DB	DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA	134	15,722	3,868.31	58	5,354	3,860.37	10,368	21,076
2	DP	DBS VICKERS SECURITIES INDONESIA	50	7,680	3,868.26	-	-	-	7,680	7,680
3	CS	CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA	150	3,306	3,863.73	-	-	-	3,306	3,306
4	ZP	KIM ENG SEKURITAS	66	3,588	3,863.77	6	333	3,875.20	3,255	3,921
5	OD	DANAREKSA SEKURITAS	136	3,169	3,848.59	13	170	3,868.38	2,999	3,339
85	BK	J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA	2	267	3,842.51	113	5,648	3,864.51	-5,381	5,915
86	KZ	CLSA INDONESIA	18	1,390	3,867.52	716	26,800	3,845.15	-25,410	28,190
87	RX	MACQUARIE SECURITIES INDONESIA	5	4,472	3,876.12	497	31,147	3,871.15	-26,675	35,619

 

Deutsche dan UBS Securities Borong Saham ROTI

Deutsche Securities Indonesia dan UBS Securities Indonesia memborong saham PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk (ROTI), produsen Sari Roti, tanpa menjual sama sekali. Deutsche membeli 2.499 lot di harga Rp 2.497 dan UBS Securities Indonesia 2.314 lot di harga Rp 2.543.

Aksi beli ini mampu mengimbangi aksi jual yang dilakukan oleh Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia yang melepas 3.436 lot di harga Rp 2.509 dan Kim Eng Sekuritas 3.006 lot di harga Rp 2.513. 

Akibatnya, harga saham ROTI yang sempat turun dari Rp 2.725 ke Rp 2.425 akhirnya ditutup di posisi Rp 2.550 atau turun 6,42%.

1	DB	DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA	117	2,499	2,497.79	-	-	-	2,499	2,499
2	AK	UBS SECURITIES INDONESIA	133	2,314	2,543.95	-	-	-	2,314	2,314
3	DR	NUSADANA CAPITAL INDONESIA	122	1,396	2,520.70	60	861	2,549.36	535	2,257
4	PD	INDO PREMIER SECURITIES	182	961	2,522.19	107	493	2,546.50	468	1,454
5	RF	BUANA CAPITAL	27	500	2,595.00	13	150	2,600.00	350	650
64	ML	MERRILL LYNCH INDONESIA	-	-	-	132	441	2,522.00	-441	441
65	LS	RELIANCE SECURITIES TBK.	47	355	2,562.96	89	889	2,516.99	-534	1,244
66	ZP	KIM ENG SEKURITAS	15	259	2,499.03	189	3,006	2,513.96	-2,747	3,265
67	CS	CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA	-	-	-	276	3,436	2,509.58	-3,436	3,436